16 ms·

Omicron Update: Nov 27

144 points by 0x008 5y ago

kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
The amount of panic created over this is unbelievable.
wdb 5y ago
Think the most recent update is that 13 people were invected with omicron in The Netherlands are confirmed. See also: https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/28/rivm-13-covid-infections-linked-omicron-variant-far https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/28/rivm-13-covid-infections-linke...
- choeger 5y ago
  If it remains at that number, that's a serious blunder of the testing concepts. If it turns out that 60ish people went on the same trip, or stayed in the same hotel and subsequently caught a new, even more contagious variant, roughly at the same time, it is easy to assume that they tested negative on departure and positive on arrival. But if they caught it on different occasions, it is highly probable that they did not test negative at all.
  - dbetteridge 5y ago
    Netherlands don't require a negative test to fly if you're fully vaccinated and not from a 'designated high risk area' https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/visiting-the-netherlands-from-abroad/requirements-for-proof-of-vaccination https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/visiti... Until Omicron was announced there were no current countries on that list as Delta had already spread everywhere.
nend 5y ago
This situation seems a lot like two years ago with the CDC saying "there are no confirmed cases in the US", while it looking really likely that the virus has already established itself here and we simply haven't tested for it. I wish they would just come out and be honest about the situation. It was frustrating two years ago and they're frustratingly silent now too.
- tux3 5y ago
  I want to agree with you, but I would be very careful not to fall into paranoia. It's easy and destructive. The CDC is probably silent because they're slow and inefficient, so they have nothing very certain to say. If there's dishonesty, it's not the main theme. Furthermore, there are talented people at the CDC. Plenty of those. If they don't get a lot of work or communication done, it's organizational inefficiency.
  - throwhauser 5y ago
    GP: > This situation seems a lot like two years ago with the CDC saying "there are no confirmed cases in the US" P: > I would be very careful not to fall into paranoia. It's easy and destructive. Two years ago, paranoia might have helped. (Although considering how many places are now starting to abandon the zero-COVID goal, it might not have worked forever).
    - sovietmudkipz 5y ago
      My mom was paranoid because she’s what I (lovingly) dub a ‘doom cult Christian’ because she is using the foretold apocalypse as an excuse to get into ‘prepping’ as a hobby. She got into it in earnest about 4 years ago, and sends me and my siblings low hundred or thousands view YouTube videos saying all kinds of crazy stuff with a biblical spin. I think COVID was a sign for her that she’s on the right path. Honestly, I haven’t dug in too greatly. I recently heard that most Christian groups are run by troll farms. I wouldn’t be surprised if she was caught in one of these schemes.
    - b112 5y ago
      Zero covid? You mean eliminate it? That was never a goal, anywhere.
      - mattrighetti 5y ago
        Looks like many people think that is the goal now. I come from a place that has a lot of vaccinated people, ICUs have been at 4% since may and still there is an increase in restrictions because of a recent uptake in cases which don't result in hospitalisation since a lot of people, as I said, took the vaccine.
mkl 5y ago
Wow: "There were two flights from South Africa that landed in Amsterdam late last night. Upon arrival, all 600 passengers were tested on the tarmac and 61 tests came back positive. A 10% prevalence rate on a flight is unbelievably high. [...] Especially given all passengers were negative before take off." Hopefully there was some contact between them before the flight to help explain that.
- koheripbal 5y ago
  My suspicion is falsified test results. Since there is no control over lab results nor any verification, falsifying test results is trivial. ...easier than even getting the test even if you think you are negative. This is why travel bans need to be much much more rapid in response to outbreaks.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - amanaplanacanal 5y ago
    As fast as this virus spreads, I suspect travel bans are useless. By the time you discovery an outbreak, it's already circulating in your population.
    - syngrog66 5y ago
      Reasoning from purely a physical system perspective, I'm confident that a travel "ban" will slow its spread, especially the earlier you enforce it. But agreed it will never be 100% effective. The question remains is the slowing worth the ban? Bans are painful, but any slowing will buy professionals more time to study it and begin targetted mitigations, and while the total infected is smaller than otherwise. Trade-offs...
    - carlmr 5y ago
      Also due to unequal sequencing efforts, countries like South Africa and England get travel bans for being the first to find such a variant. We're banning the messenger.
raesene9 5y ago
An interesting thought experiment is, what's the correct public health response if it appears that Omicron is more contagious but less serious than Delta, and catching Omicron is mutually exclusive with catching Delta or any other strain. I know I wouldn't want to be the public health people trying to wrestle with the pros and cons of response in this kind of setup, must be really tricky to get things even close to right.
- t0mas88 5y ago
  That's the big question. A theory that this already happened in Japan was posted here in the last few weeks.
- auntienomen 5y ago
  Interesting, but not especially relevant. Omicron has biologists worried because it appears to be different enough that it may be able to evade the immune defenses that we have to the existing SARS-Cov-2 strains. The thing they are afraid of is that you can catch both viruses, and get the disease twice.
- PeterisP 5y ago
  Those are big "ifs", and especially "catching Omicron is mutually exclusive with catching Delta or any other strain" seems a bit unlikely. Namely, if there's a mutated strain which is resistant to vaccines targeting the previous strain, then it also implies that it's likely that the immune response from one won't fit the other much, just as previously with different strains of flu allowing reinfection.
  - rossdavidh 5y ago
    Could quite possibly be true, although the article presents very preliminary evidence that we do not have vaccine escape (or not complete, anyway).
  - spurgu 5y ago
    I mean the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission/infection for Delta (or Alpha) either, it just makes the symptoms milder. Edit: For whomever downvoted, here you go: > Prior to the emergence of the delta variant, it was reported that the risk of symptomatic cases in household contacts of vaccinated cases was about 50% lower than that among household contacts of unvaccinated cases(22). However, the impact of vaccination on reducing transmission in the context of the more transmissible delta variant appears to be lower(23). https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-for-children-and-adolescents https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-o... And/or: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
eric4smith 5y ago
That variant is straight from Omicron Perseii 8
- marban 5y ago
  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFOIOU3XoAMV1Qm?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFOIOU3XoAMV1Qm?format=jpg&name=...
SuoDuanDao 5y ago
I kind of skimmed the article, was there a mention of the mortality or long-haul rate that I might have missed? Since viruses mutate to become less deadly with time, we would expect later variants to be less dangerous than earlier ones. Without knowing the mortality rate of Omicron it's hard to do any useful risk analysis.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- tomhoward 5y ago
  It's too early to say, but the on-the-ground anecdotal reports suggest it is not particularly severe or lethal, based on observations so far. But it will take weeks to start knowing about mortality and months to see evidence of long illness. The best case scenario is that the mutations that make it more infectious also make it less virulent/lethal, and the super-early evidence suggests that is at least possibly true of this variant.
  - koheripbal 5y ago
    Severe illness and hospitalizations lag infections by weeks, so the initial data is biased. Deaths lag on the order of two months.
    - bart_spoon 5y ago
      While true, its highly unlikely Omicron actually exploded into existence in the last 2 weeks. It's likely been circulating for months and we've just now discovered it.
    - rimliu 5y ago
      > Deaths lag on the order of two months Pure BS.
      - jagger27 5y ago
        People clearly don’t die immediately after infection. Consider that most people dying in North America were being kept alive on a ventilator. Not sure why a two month lag is so hard to believe.
theduder99 5y ago
Italy has a confirmed case from a guy who brought it back from Mozambique. Gave it to five family members already. https://www.italy24news.com/local/280042.html https://www.italy24news.com/local/280042.html For the record he had received two doses of a vaccine..a detail suspiciously left out of CNN and other media reports as it doesn't fit the narrative.
- objektif 5y ago
  What is the narrative? Getting vaccinated reduces the probability of transmission? I hate CNN myself but lets try to be fair.
  - koheripbal 5y ago
    Isn't it obvious? The narrative is that the vaccine continues to works (period - No more thinking allowed for the audience), thus they omit that someone who caught and transmitted to new variant was fully vaccinated. The truth is nuanced, but CNN doesn't like to report nuances because it detracts from their oversimplified narrative.
    - tapoxi 5y ago
      The vaccine reduces hospitalization and death, not transmission with new variants. That's why the CDC changed its mask guidance over the summer.
      - objektif 5y ago
        Why do you say that? Vaccines provides some immunity not 100%. If you are not sick you cannot transmit it.
        spurgu 5y ago
        Whoa. This goes against common sense. Stop and think for a bit: How would there be transmission going on in the world at all if there were no asymptomatic spread?
theknocker 5y ago
At what point are these people just grifters?
sAbakumoff 5y ago
the only hope that pills from Merk & Phizer could really reduce risk of hospitalization & death. otherwise we are poised for new lockdowns.
- timonoko 5y ago
  Merck pill has already failed at 35%. This table seems be otherwise valid: https://c19early.com/ https://c19early.com/
  - manwe150 5y ago
    That table has known problems. For example, see this recent discussion of a thorough analysis of it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29249686 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29249686
- koheripbal 5y ago
  Monoclonal treatments will also not work well with new variants.
neverminder 5y ago
Fun fact: omicron is anagram of moronic. Someone is trying to subtly tell us something?
vaadu 5y ago
Goldman Slams Omicron Panic: “This Mutation Is Unlikely To Be More Malicious; No Reason For Portfolio Changes.” https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-slams-omicron-panic-mutation-unlikely-be-more-malicious-no-reason-major-portfolio https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-slams-omicron-pani...
- quickthrowman 5y ago
  I’m with Goldman on this one. Delta dip buyers were rewarded, and Omicron dip buyers will be rewarded as well. In any case, a serious variant is only going to postpone the Fed’s tapering and hiking schedule, and could lead to more stimulus. Both of those things are a tailwind for equities. Omicron being less serious than expected would also be a tailwind for equities.
  - wussboy 5y ago
    Maybe it’s just me, but this comment seems so macabre. Like ambulance chasing. “So, lots of people are going to die, but I intend to make some money of it so that’s okay.”
    - alecco 5y ago
      On the contrary, he is betting there won't be as many deaths as expected. It's an optimist position.
      - atmartins 5y ago
        ...framed in a financial context.
    - poiuyjkmj 5y ago
      Can we stop having moral judgements as comments on HN and acknowledge everyone has their own morality. The stock market could dip for a number of reasons. I don't particularly think its helpful trying to point out every time someone violates your personal moral lines e.g. don't buy stock when the market crashes for reason x, don't buy stock y etc. Besides, this interpretation of the ops comment was different for me, if the virus is less deadly and people shouldn't panic sell, fewer people die and loose money, don't they.
t0bia_s 5y ago
Sounds like witch hunt.
mrfusion 5y ago
> WHO skipped Nu (because it’s too easily confounded with “new”) and Xi because it’s a common surname. I’m sure that’s the reason /s
- mhh__ 5y ago
  I've seen it reported that the latter was explicitly over what you think what the reason was, so this may be wrong.
  - abduhl 5y ago
    Let's be explicit rather than subtle: Xi was likely skipped because Xi Jinping is the leader of China.
    - mhh__ 5y ago
      My point was that I saw this mentioned explicitly in the news, and I don't think it's an unreasonable decision to make.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
mrfusion 5y ago
Here’s a take that’s a little less hyperbolic: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-symptoms-mild-doctor-angelique-coetzee-b968715.html https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-symptoms-mild-doc...
- defaultname 5y ago
  The doctor notes that the patients she has seen have all been young, healthy men, with a very small sampling set. I'm not sure how much to read into that at this point, as every variant of COVID would average out to "mild" to non-existent symptoms across most of the population, but causes enough mayhem with a small percentage to become trouble at scale. Given the effective "punishment" of South Africa for being vigilant and detecting the variant, she's also incentivized to lean towards optimism. Who knows. Maybe it'll end up raging across the population with little downside and the end result might be advantageous. We can't know yet.
NullChronos 5y ago
> None of this changes what you can to do right now: Ventilate spaces. Use masks. Test if you have symptoms. To add; Supplement vitamin D, exercise, and eat healthily.
- gladinovax 5y ago
  Yep eat healthy, exercise, and get some sun. So I will continue to not do anything different than I always have. Working out great!
- GrayShade 5y ago
  Most non-fit people (including myself) won't get fit in a couple of months, so this is slightly too optimistic.
  - spurgu 5y ago
    You've had almost two years now.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
hourislate 5y ago
There was an excellent post/thread on 4chan where they discussed the symptoms (tired, muscle aches) and how easily this variant spread. It was determined that this might be "the one", where the virus has mutated for maximum survival and this variant becomes no more serious than a bad cold for young/healthy folks. Of course the old/morbidly obese/metabolically broken, type II diabetes/high BP and heart problems still need to be worried but that's true for even the Flu or any nasty virus. I look at it this way, there is no escape. We will all get it eventually. I'm vaccinated and healthy for whatever that is worth.
- sneak 5y ago
  https://pluralistic.net/2021/11/28/somos-cuba/#omishambles https://pluralistic.net/2021/11/28/somos-cuba/#omishambles
- davorak 5y ago
  > where the virus has mutated for maximum survival and this variant becomes no more serious than a bad cold for young/healthy folks. I think this idea is overly optimistic and can be misleading. Maximum survivability of the virus does not necessarily coincide with with it being no 'more serious than a bad cold'. It often means the virus can not have traits which make spreading harder. Like killing the infected too quickly or having noticeable symptoms the lead the infected to be isolated. I can imagine many long term side effects that do not effect the virus's survival in the short term and therefore will not be weeded through natural selection in a reasonable timeframe. Any side effect which is not detectable for a long time like early onset of cognitive decline in old age or shorting life span by 1-5 years would seem to fit. There is no guarantee the final form of the virus will end up similar common cold.
peter_retief 5y ago
I live in South Africa and feel a bit under siege by the sudden restrictions on travel. I hope the panic is an overreaction as I am really over this virus now.
liminal 5y ago
It's very encouraging that they can detect this variant with PCR tests and don't need to run genetic sequencing. This should allow much earlier, even retroactive detection.
jbverschoor 5y ago
Silly me always thought that epsilon came after delta. I guess omicron sounds like a very dangerous micro organism
- iamdamian 5y ago
  Epsilon does come after delta. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Epsilon_variant https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Epsilon_variant
rossdavidh 5y ago
"A 10% prevalence rate on a flight is unbelievably high. Like defies imagination..." No, it isn't. Past experiments (aimed at measuring the impact of elderberry on cold virus resistance, btw) found about 10% of people on a flight getting infected with a respiratory virus. https://ergo-log.com/elderberries-help-against-colds.html https://ergo-log.com/elderberries-help-against-colds.html It wasn't a coronavirus, but my point is that a respiratory virus spreading to 10% of the people on a flight is so common, the researchers could just pick a normal plane flight and find 10% infection. So, for a virus to spread to 10% of the people on a plane flight is not "unbelievably high", it's apparently not uncommonly seen for other respiratory viruses.
- fabian2k 5y ago
  You only test positive on PCR after a few days (at least for the Delta variant). So the infections can't really have happened on the plane, but before. And at that point 10% would be unbelievably high if the people on the plane were all independent and not in previous contact. It's a bit hard to put this number into context though if you don't know anything about the passengers. It would be much more plausible if e.g. a large part of the passengers were in the same hotel before or something like that.
  - nostrademons 5y ago
    Unless Omicron is different, which is possible and consistent with other evidence. It's spreading 500% faster than the original strain did; Delta was only 70% faster. The two asymptomatic Hong Kong patients both have sky-high viral loads. That's why this data is so alarming. Either you've got a 10%+ base rate in the population and they all skipped (or false-negative) a pre-boarding PCR test. Or Omicron spreads fast enough that it can infect 10% of a plane during a 12-hour flight and multiply enough to show up on a PCR test upon landing. Or the 61 cases knew each other beforehand (same hotel, same tour) and it's bad for that travel operator but better for public health, which is why they're trying to get the facts on that.
    - spurgu 5y ago
vlod 5y ago
Every time I hear the word Omicron, I have to stop myself saying "Om-ni-cron". Apparently that's the title of a movie "A cognitive science student enlists the aid of a paranormal psychologist to investigate a demonic conspiracy". That name would REALLY have got people going. :)
- xanaxagoras 5y ago
  Every time I hear it I think... I AM LRR, FROM OMICRON PERSEI 8. BRING ME THE HUMAN HORN.
  - vondur 5y ago
    I miss Futurama.
coding123 5y ago
I've never left the pandemic and have continued to wear and will continue to wear a surgical grade N95 mask (also stops liquid basically) around anyone that isn't my wife (and she the same) for the rest of our lives. Masks are the only thing that has the ability to stop this and beautifully also allow for the economy to run full swing. I think the democrats should back off of vaccination goals and just get mask goals perfected.
- dboreham 5y ago
  Large numbers of people won't wear masks. Source: flown domestic flights in the US recently -- numerous people sitting without masks on, charring to flight attendants who did nothing.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- mpfundstein 5y ago
  move to a cave and never come out again. jesus, dont be so afraid of life
  - coding123 5y ago
    It's very rare to find kind people these days.
gladinovax 5y ago
I'll keep living my life as I always have. Death comes for all. I won't be living in fear. But I welcome all you to do as you please. All the fear is mildly amusing to me at this point. Boosters forever.
- chuckSu 5y ago
  Cool story bro.
- sAbakumoff 5y ago
  it's up to you how to live and die, but it's not up to you to decide it for other people by spreading deadly virus around.
  - travoc 5y ago
    You speak as if you have the power to lock him up if he has coronavirus. Unless he lives in Australia, you don’t.
    - sAbakumoff 5y ago
      More and more countries make smart decisions. Today Switzerland voted YES for covid certificates[1]. The Netherlands will effectively do the same in 1 week - it won't be enough to get tested to enter a museum, cinema, or restaurant, you will have to be vaccinated or recovered[2]. Hopefully at some point unvaccinated won't be able to go outside! [1] - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/28/tensions-swiss-vote-covid-vaccine-certificate-law https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/28/tensions-swiss... [2] - https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/netherlands-will-start-2g-coronavirus-pass-system-3-week-lockdown-report https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/netherlands-will-start-2g-coro...
      - bmeski 5y ago
        “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety” You obviously don’t see the slippery slope here do you? Edit: also millions of people around the world have signed up or given their lives to defend their countries and ways of life. How dare those that cower at home dictate what i do. Stay at home and watch your Disney Fauci documentary and order from seamless to your hearts content. Some of us prefer reality.
alecco 5y ago
https://archive.md/wip/0EPC4 https://archive.md/wip/0EPC4 It's just a summary of the news. There's zero new information or analysis.
alejohausner 5y ago
According to the South African doctor who first discovered the variant[1], it produces generally mild symptoms, and is not deadly. [1]:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988
- coolspot 5y ago
  Covid too generally produces mild symptoms, but sometimes kills.
NoblePublius 5y ago
Omicron is a really good excuse for the media to stop talking about the black supremacist anti Semitic terrorist who killed a group of dancing grandmothers and young children. Let’s talk more about Omicron.
- cultofmetatron 5y ago
  whats there to talk about? The man did a horrible thing and there is no question among anyone that he's going to spend the rest of his life in jail. This kind of whatabloutism is absolutely ridiculous. Georrge floyd's death drew media outrage because a POLICE officer choked out a restrained man to death using unnecessary force on camera for over 7 minutes and was going to face zero consequences for it. amhad arbery's killers went on and lived their lives without any attempt at prosecution until the video came out 3 months later drawing significant disdain from the population. Next time you feel like posting some bullshit "what about X who did what, why isn't the media involved?" maybe first start asking. 1. Has the person been apprehended or are the police putting in a serious effort to find said person? 2. is there anyone actually arguing or defending said person's actions? 3. is there any doubt that the offender in question is going to face LEGAL CONSEQUENCES?
  - NoblePublius 5y ago
    It’s ok. You can say “black supremacist anti semite” instead of “said person.” Try it. Omicron.

144 points by 0x008 5y ago

The amount of panic created over this is unbelievable.

wdb 5y ago

Think the most recent update is that 13 people were invected with omicron in The Netherlands are confirmed. See also: https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/28/rivm-13-covid-infections-linked-omicron-variant-far https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/28/rivm-13-covid-infections-linke...

choeger 5y ago
If it remains at that number, that's a serious blunder of the testing concepts. If it turns out that 60ish people went on the same trip, or stayed in the same hotel and subsequently caught a new, even more contagious variant, roughly at the same time, it is easy to assume that they tested negative on departure and positive on arrival. But if they caught it on different occasions, it is highly probable that they did not test negative at all.
- dbetteridge 5y ago
  Netherlands don't require a negative test to fly if you're fully vaccinated and not from a 'designated high risk area' https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/visiting-the-netherlands-from-abroad/requirements-for-proof-of-vaccination https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/visiti... Until Omicron was announced there were no current countries on that list as Delta had already spread everywhere.

nend 5y ago

This situation seems a lot like two years ago with the CDC saying "there are no confirmed cases in the US", while it looking really likely that the virus has already established itself here and we simply haven't tested for it. I wish they would just come out and be honest about the situation. It was frustrating two years ago and they're frustratingly silent now too.

tux3 5y ago
I want to agree with you, but I would be very careful not to fall into paranoia. It's easy and destructive. The CDC is probably silent because they're slow and inefficient, so they have nothing very certain to say. If there's dishonesty, it's not the main theme. Furthermore, there are talented people at the CDC. Plenty of those. If they don't get a lot of work or communication done, it's organizational inefficiency.
- throwhauser 5y ago
  GP: > This situation seems a lot like two years ago with the CDC saying "there are no confirmed cases in the US" P: > I would be very careful not to fall into paranoia. It's easy and destructive. Two years ago, paranoia might have helped. (Although considering how many places are now starting to abandon the zero-COVID goal, it might not have worked forever).
  - sovietmudkipz 5y ago
    My mom was paranoid because she’s what I (lovingly) dub a ‘doom cult Christian’ because she is using the foretold apocalypse as an excuse to get into ‘prepping’ as a hobby. She got into it in earnest about 4 years ago, and sends me and my siblings low hundred or thousands view YouTube videos saying all kinds of crazy stuff with a biblical spin. I think COVID was a sign for her that she’s on the right path. Honestly, I haven’t dug in too greatly. I recently heard that most Christian groups are run by troll farms. I wouldn’t be surprised if she was caught in one of these schemes.
  - b112 5y ago
    Zero covid? You mean eliminate it? That was never a goal, anywhere.
    - mattrighetti 5y ago
      Looks like many people think that is the goal now. I come from a place that has a lot of vaccinated people, ICUs have been at 4% since may and still there is an increase in restrictions because of a recent uptake in cases which don't result in hospitalisation since a lot of people, as I said, took the vaccine.

mkl 5y ago

Wow: "There were two flights from South Africa that landed in Amsterdam late last night. Upon arrival, all 600 passengers were tested on the tarmac and 61 tests came back positive. A 10% prevalence rate on a flight is unbelievably high. [...] Especially given all passengers were negative before take off." Hopefully there was some contact between them before the flight to help explain that.

koheripbal 5y ago
My suspicion is falsified test results. Since there is no control over lab results nor any verification, falsifying test results is trivial. ...easier than even getting the test even if you think you are negative. This is why travel bans need to be much much more rapid in response to outbreaks.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- amanaplanacanal 5y ago
  As fast as this virus spreads, I suspect travel bans are useless. By the time you discovery an outbreak, it's already circulating in your population.
  - syngrog66 5y ago
    Reasoning from purely a physical system perspective, I'm confident that a travel "ban" will slow its spread, especially the earlier you enforce it. But agreed it will never be 100% effective. The question remains is the slowing worth the ban? Bans are painful, but any slowing will buy professionals more time to study it and begin targetted mitigations, and while the total infected is smaller than otherwise. Trade-offs...
  - carlmr 5y ago
    Also due to unequal sequencing efforts, countries like South Africa and England get travel bans for being the first to find such a variant. We're banning the messenger.

raesene9 5y ago

An interesting thought experiment is, what's the correct public health response if it appears that Omicron is more contagious but less serious than Delta, and catching Omicron is mutually exclusive with catching Delta or any other strain. I know I wouldn't want to be the public health people trying to wrestle with the pros and cons of response in this kind of setup, must be really tricky to get things even close to right.

t0mas88 5y ago
That's the big question. A theory that this already happened in Japan was posted here in the last few weeks.
auntienomen 5y ago
Interesting, but not especially relevant. Omicron has biologists worried because it appears to be different enough that it may be able to evade the immune defenses that we have to the existing SARS-Cov-2 strains. The thing they are afraid of is that you can catch both viruses, and get the disease twice.
PeterisP 5y ago
Those are big "ifs", and especially "catching Omicron is mutually exclusive with catching Delta or any other strain" seems a bit unlikely. Namely, if there's a mutated strain which is resistant to vaccines targeting the previous strain, then it also implies that it's likely that the immune response from one won't fit the other much, just as previously with different strains of flu allowing reinfection.
- rossdavidh 5y ago
  Could quite possibly be true, although the article presents very preliminary evidence that we do not have vaccine escape (or not complete, anyway).
- spurgu 5y ago
  I mean the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission/infection for Delta (or Alpha) either, it just makes the symptoms milder. Edit: For whomever downvoted, here you go: > Prior to the emergence of the delta variant, it was reported that the risk of symptomatic cases in household contacts of vaccinated cases was about 50% lower than that among household contacts of unvaccinated cases(22). However, the impact of vaccination on reducing transmission in the context of the more transmissible delta variant appears to be lower(23). https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-for-children-and-adolescents https://www.who.int/news/item/24-11-2021-interim-statement-o... And/or: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

eric4smith 5y ago

That variant is straight from Omicron Perseii 8

marban 5y ago
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFOIOU3XoAMV1Qm?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFOIOU3XoAMV1Qm?format=jpg&name=...

SuoDuanDao 5y ago

I kind of skimmed the article, was there a mention of the mortality or long-haul rate that I might have missed? Since viruses mutate to become less deadly with time, we would expect later variants to be less dangerous than earlier ones. Without knowing the mortality rate of Omicron it's hard to do any useful risk analysis.

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tomhoward 5y ago
It's too early to say, but the on-the-ground anecdotal reports suggest it is not particularly severe or lethal, based on observations so far. But it will take weeks to start knowing about mortality and months to see evidence of long illness. The best case scenario is that the mutations that make it more infectious also make it less virulent/lethal, and the super-early evidence suggests that is at least possibly true of this variant.
- koheripbal 5y ago
  Severe illness and hospitalizations lag infections by weeks, so the initial data is biased. Deaths lag on the order of two months.
  - bart_spoon 5y ago
    While true, its highly unlikely Omicron actually exploded into existence in the last 2 weeks. It's likely been circulating for months and we've just now discovered it.
  - rimliu 5y ago
    > Deaths lag on the order of two months Pure BS.
    - jagger27 5y ago
      People clearly don’t die immediately after infection. Consider that most people dying in North America were being kept alive on a ventilator. Not sure why a two month lag is so hard to believe.

theduder99 5y ago

Italy has a confirmed case from a guy who brought it back from Mozambique. Gave it to five family members already. https://www.italy24news.com/local/280042.html https://www.italy24news.com/local/280042.html For the record he had received two doses of a vaccine..a detail suspiciously left out of CNN and other media reports as it doesn't fit the narrative.

objektif 5y ago
What is the narrative? Getting vaccinated reduces the probability of transmission? I hate CNN myself but lets try to be fair.
- koheripbal 5y ago
  Isn't it obvious? The narrative is that the vaccine continues to works (period - No more thinking allowed for the audience), thus they omit that someone who caught and transmitted to new variant was fully vaccinated. The truth is nuanced, but CNN doesn't like to report nuances because it detracts from their oversimplified narrative.
  - tapoxi 5y ago
    The vaccine reduces hospitalization and death, not transmission with new variants. That's why the CDC changed its mask guidance over the summer.
    - objektif 5y ago
      Why do you say that? Vaccines provides some immunity not 100%. If you are not sick you cannot transmit it.
      - spurgu 5y ago
        Whoa. This goes against common sense. Stop and think for a bit: How would there be transmission going on in the world at all if there were no asymptomatic spread?

theknocker 5y ago

At what point are these people just grifters?

sAbakumoff 5y ago

the only hope that pills from Merk & Phizer could really reduce risk of hospitalization & death. otherwise we are poised for new lockdowns.

timonoko 5y ago
Merck pill has already failed at 35%. This table seems be otherwise valid: https://c19early.com/ https://c19early.com/
- manwe150 5y ago
  That table has known problems. For example, see this recent discussion of a thorough analysis of it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29249686 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29249686
koheripbal 5y ago
Monoclonal treatments will also not work well with new variants.

neverminder 5y ago

Fun fact: omicron is anagram of moronic. Someone is trying to subtly tell us something?

vaadu 5y ago

Goldman Slams Omicron Panic: “This Mutation Is Unlikely To Be More Malicious; No Reason For Portfolio Changes.” https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-slams-omicron-panic-mutation-unlikely-be-more-malicious-no-reason-major-portfolio https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-slams-omicron-pani...

quickthrowman 5y ago
I’m with Goldman on this one. Delta dip buyers were rewarded, and Omicron dip buyers will be rewarded as well. In any case, a serious variant is only going to postpone the Fed’s tapering and hiking schedule, and could lead to more stimulus. Both of those things are a tailwind for equities. Omicron being less serious than expected would also be a tailwind for equities.
- wussboy 5y ago
  Maybe it’s just me, but this comment seems so macabre. Like ambulance chasing. “So, lots of people are going to die, but I intend to make some money of it so that’s okay.”
  - alecco 5y ago
    On the contrary, he is betting there won't be as many deaths as expected. It's an optimist position.
    - atmartins 5y ago
      ...framed in a financial context.
  - poiuyjkmj 5y ago
    Can we stop having moral judgements as comments on HN and acknowledge everyone has their own morality. The stock market could dip for a number of reasons. I don't particularly think its helpful trying to point out every time someone violates your personal moral lines e.g. don't buy stock when the market crashes for reason x, don't buy stock y etc. Besides, this interpretation of the ops comment was different for me, if the virus is less deadly and people shouldn't panic sell, fewer people die and loose money, don't they.

t0bia_s 5y ago

Sounds like witch hunt.

mrfusion 5y ago

> WHO skipped Nu (because it’s too easily confounded with “new”) and Xi because it’s a common surname. I’m sure that’s the reason /s

mhh__ 5y ago
I've seen it reported that the latter was explicitly over what you think what the reason was, so this may be wrong.
- abduhl 5y ago
  Let's be explicit rather than subtle: Xi was likely skipped because Xi Jinping is the leader of China.
  - mhh__ 5y ago
    My point was that I saw this mentioned explicitly in the news, and I don't think it's an unreasonable decision to make.
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mrfusion 5y ago

Here’s a take that’s a little less hyperbolic: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-symptoms-mild-doctor-angelique-coetzee-b968715.html https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-symptoms-mild-doc...

defaultname 5y ago
The doctor notes that the patients she has seen have all been young, healthy men, with a very small sampling set. I'm not sure how much to read into that at this point, as every variant of COVID would average out to "mild" to non-existent symptoms across most of the population, but causes enough mayhem with a small percentage to become trouble at scale. Given the effective "punishment" of South Africa for being vigilant and detecting the variant, she's also incentivized to lean towards optimism. Who knows. Maybe it'll end up raging across the population with little downside and the end result might be advantageous. We can't know yet.

NullChronos 5y ago

> None of this changes what you can to do right now: Ventilate spaces. Use masks. Test if you have symptoms. To add; Supplement vitamin D, exercise, and eat healthily.

gladinovax 5y ago
Yep eat healthy, exercise, and get some sun. So I will continue to not do anything different than I always have. Working out great!
GrayShade 5y ago
Most non-fit people (including myself) won't get fit in a couple of months, so this is slightly too optimistic.
- spurgu 5y ago
  You've had almost two years now.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

hourislate 5y ago

There was an excellent post/thread on 4chan where they discussed the symptoms (tired, muscle aches) and how easily this variant spread. It was determined that this might be "the one", where the virus has mutated for maximum survival and this variant becomes no more serious than a bad cold for young/healthy folks. Of course the old/morbidly obese/metabolically broken, type II diabetes/high BP and heart problems still need to be worried but that's true for even the Flu or any nasty virus. I look at it this way, there is no escape. We will all get it eventually. I'm vaccinated and healthy for whatever that is worth.

sneak 5y ago
https://pluralistic.net/2021/11/28/somos-cuba/#omishambles https://pluralistic.net/2021/11/28/somos-cuba/#omishambles
davorak 5y ago
> where the virus has mutated for maximum survival and this variant becomes no more serious than a bad cold for young/healthy folks. I think this idea is overly optimistic and can be misleading. Maximum survivability of the virus does not necessarily coincide with with it being no 'more serious than a bad cold'. It often means the virus can not have traits which make spreading harder. Like killing the infected too quickly or having noticeable symptoms the lead the infected to be isolated. I can imagine many long term side effects that do not effect the virus's survival in the short term and therefore will not be weeded through natural selection in a reasonable timeframe. Any side effect which is not detectable for a long time like early onset of cognitive decline in old age or shorting life span by 1-5 years would seem to fit. There is no guarantee the final form of the virus will end up similar common cold.

peter_retief 5y ago

I live in South Africa and feel a bit under siege by the sudden restrictions on travel. I hope the panic is an overreaction as I am really over this virus now.

liminal 5y ago

It's very encouraging that they can detect this variant with PCR tests and don't need to run genetic sequencing. This should allow much earlier, even retroactive detection.

jbverschoor 5y ago

Silly me always thought that epsilon came after delta. I guess omicron sounds like a very dangerous micro organism

iamdamian 5y ago
Epsilon does come after delta. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Epsilon_variant https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Epsilon_variant

rossdavidh 5y ago

"A 10% prevalence rate on a flight is unbelievably high. Like defies imagination..." No, it isn't. Past experiments (aimed at measuring the impact of elderberry on cold virus resistance, btw) found about 10% of people on a flight getting infected with a respiratory virus. https://ergo-log.com/elderberries-help-against-colds.html https://ergo-log.com/elderberries-help-against-colds.html It wasn't a coronavirus, but my point is that a respiratory virus spreading to 10% of the people on a flight is so common, the researchers could just pick a normal plane flight and find 10% infection. So, for a virus to spread to 10% of the people on a plane flight is not "unbelievably high", it's apparently not uncommonly seen for other respiratory viruses.

fabian2k 5y ago
You only test positive on PCR after a few days (at least for the Delta variant). So the infections can't really have happened on the plane, but before. And at that point 10% would be unbelievably high if the people on the plane were all independent and not in previous contact. It's a bit hard to put this number into context though if you don't know anything about the passengers. It would be much more plausible if e.g. a large part of the passengers were in the same hotel before or something like that.
- nostrademons 5y ago
  Unless Omicron is different, which is possible and consistent with other evidence. It's spreading 500% faster than the original strain did; Delta was only 70% faster. The two asymptomatic Hong Kong patients both have sky-high viral loads. That's why this data is so alarming. Either you've got a 10%+ base rate in the population and they all skipped (or false-negative) a pre-boarding PCR test. Or Omicron spreads fast enough that it can infect 10% of a plane during a 12-hour flight and multiply enough to show up on a PCR test upon landing. Or the 61 cases knew each other beforehand (same hotel, same tour) and it's bad for that travel operator but better for public health, which is why they're trying to get the facts on that.
  - spurgu 5y ago

vlod 5y ago

Every time I hear the word Omicron, I have to stop myself saying "Om-ni-cron". Apparently that's the title of a movie "A cognitive science student enlists the aid of a paranormal psychologist to investigate a demonic conspiracy". That name would REALLY have got people going. :)

xanaxagoras 5y ago
Every time I hear it I think... I AM LRR, FROM OMICRON PERSEI 8. BRING ME THE HUMAN HORN.
- vondur 5y ago
  I miss Futurama.

coding123 5y ago

I've never left the pandemic and have continued to wear and will continue to wear a surgical grade N95 mask (also stops liquid basically) around anyone that isn't my wife (and she the same) for the rest of our lives. Masks are the only thing that has the ability to stop this and beautifully also allow for the economy to run full swing. I think the democrats should back off of vaccination goals and just get mask goals perfected.

dboreham 5y ago
Large numbers of people won't wear masks. Source: flown domestic flights in the US recently -- numerous people sitting without masks on, charring to flight attendants who did nothing.
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mpfundstein 5y ago
move to a cave and never come out again. jesus, dont be so afraid of life
- coding123 5y ago
  It's very rare to find kind people these days.

gladinovax 5y ago

I'll keep living my life as I always have. Death comes for all. I won't be living in fear. But I welcome all you to do as you please. All the fear is mildly amusing to me at this point. Boosters forever.

chuckSu 5y ago
Cool story bro.
sAbakumoff 5y ago
it's up to you how to live and die, but it's not up to you to decide it for other people by spreading deadly virus around.
- travoc 5y ago
  You speak as if you have the power to lock him up if he has coronavirus. Unless he lives in Australia, you don’t.
  - sAbakumoff 5y ago
    More and more countries make smart decisions. Today Switzerland voted YES for covid certificates[1]. The Netherlands will effectively do the same in 1 week - it won't be enough to get tested to enter a museum, cinema, or restaurant, you will have to be vaccinated or recovered[2]. Hopefully at some point unvaccinated won't be able to go outside! [1] - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/28/tensions-swiss-vote-covid-vaccine-certificate-law https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/28/tensions-swiss... [2] - https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/netherlands-will-start-2g-coronavirus-pass-system-3-week-lockdown-report https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/netherlands-will-start-2g-coro...
    - bmeski 5y ago
      “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety” You obviously don’t see the slippery slope here do you? Edit: also millions of people around the world have signed up or given their lives to defend their countries and ways of life. How dare those that cower at home dictate what i do. Stay at home and watch your Disney Fauci documentary and order from seamless to your hearts content. Some of us prefer reality.

alecco 5y ago

https://archive.md/wip/0EPC4 https://archive.md/wip/0EPC4 It's just a summary of the news. There's zero new information or analysis.

alejohausner 5y ago

According to the South African doctor who first discovered the variant[1], it produces generally mild symptoms, and is not deadly. [1]:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

coolspot 5y ago
Covid too generally produces mild symptoms, but sometimes kills.

NoblePublius 5y ago

Omicron is a really good excuse for the media to stop talking about the black supremacist anti Semitic terrorist who killed a group of dancing grandmothers and young children. Let’s talk more about Omicron.

cultofmetatron 5y ago
whats there to talk about? The man did a horrible thing and there is no question among anyone that he's going to spend the rest of his life in jail. This kind of whatabloutism is absolutely ridiculous. Georrge floyd's death drew media outrage because a POLICE officer choked out a restrained man to death using unnecessary force on camera for over 7 minutes and was going to face zero consequences for it. amhad arbery's killers went on and lived their lives without any attempt at prosecution until the video came out 3 months later drawing significant disdain from the population. Next time you feel like posting some bullshit "what about X who did what, why isn't the media involved?" maybe first start asking. 1. Has the person been apprehended or are the police putting in a serious effort to find said person? 2. is there anyone actually arguing or defending said person's actions? 3. is there any doubt that the offender in question is going to face LEGAL CONSEQUENCES?
- NoblePublius 5y ago
  It’s ok. You can say “black supremacist anti semite” instead of “said person.” Try it. Omicron.