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As always Bill Gates called it: This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world, so that we curb and slow down the emergence of variants

by GDC7 5y ago

As always Bill Gates called it: This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world, so that we curb and slow down the emergence of variants. Problem is that nobody in the developed world wants to be found with their briefs down and no vaccine availibility so the West is stockpiling jabs for people who essentially don't want it. The west has been stuck around 67-70% for months now, with no tangible progress. Those jabs, are the "use it or lose it" kind, if a vaccine resistant variant emerges in the 3rd world, all those stockpiles won't do any good, at that point for nobody.

jimbokun 5y ago
One of the best returns on investment the U.S. government could make would probably be to pour money into ramping up vaccine production to give to poor countries. I believe the cost would be tiny relative to the economic risk of allowing more mutations and continued spread of Covid.
DantesKite 5y ago
You’re talking about a continent that has endemic malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV. Not saying the factors you brought up aren’t important. They are, but it’s not so simple.
belter 5y ago
How is Bill Gates more competent to talk about vaccines than anybody else here?
- GDC7 5y ago
  Because he's been in the health battleground called Africa since 2000.
- dageshi 5y ago
  His foundation has been trying to fight/wipe out various communicable diseases since 2000... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation#Global_health_division https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundat...
  - belter 5y ago
    I am aware of his billions and the many ways he makes them. I have a machine sitting at my desk that never got close to an inch close to Windows, runs exclusively Linux, but a part of the money I paid for the hardware, ends up at Microsoft. But if I donate 10 billion to promote child education does not make me an expert on it. I am however, aware of some his efforts to restrict global access to vaccines something that will definitely be shown to be a mistake as new Covid mutations emerge outside of the rich "triple vaccinated world" "How Bill Gates Impeded Global Access to Covid Vaccines" https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-global-access-covid-vaccines https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-gl...
mandmandam 5y ago
>94% vaccinated in Ireland, and we're still hoarding boosters, and demonising the unvaccinated. Meanwhile, our schools remain fully packed, with no additional resources for air quality, and the government have even told schools not to inform parents of COVID cases in classrooms. I can't help but wonder if all this cack-handedness is in relation to the contracts Pfizer "negotiated" with governments - https://www.citizen.org/article/pfizers-power/ https://www.citizen.org/article/pfizers-power/ PS Bill Gates is still responsible for an almost incalculable amount of harm, because of his actions against free and libre software and small businesses.
- GDC7 5y ago
  > PS Bill Gates is still responsible for an almost incalculable amount of harm, because of his actions against free and libre software and small businesses. Free and libre software was always doomed because people who are worth their weight in gold due to their programming abilities want a nice mansion in Naples, FL with a nice dock and a 40 footer boat , not just a tap on their shoulders for a job well done.
  - mandmandam 5y ago
    > Free and libre software was always doomed .. Then why did Bill have to try so incredibly hard to fuck them up?
ssk_ 5y ago
In this particular case, South Africa is having trouble vaccinating its population with sufficient supply. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-...
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  I wonder how much of that is hesitancy and how much is logistics or corruption.
unmole 5y ago
Not necessarily disagreeing with the thrust of your comment but South Africa asked vaccine manufactures to delay vaccine deliveries because it has too much stock: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-... It's not just the matter of shipping out vaccines to the developing world.
zpeti 5y ago
The numbers just don't add up for me. There are almost 8bn people in the world. Sceptical countries get 50% of their population vaccinated. Compliant countries say 80%. Even if it's 80%, that still means after everyone you can has been vaccinated you still have 1.6bn-4bn people unvaccinated. You also can't vaccinate everyone at once. Vaccinating the world inevitably takes years, not months. That leaves a lot of room for mutations. I don't see logistically how you get over that, you just can't. It sounds good but I don't see the practical solutions. (And then we haven't even talked about cross infection with animals, deers are now 80% infected or something with covid? What happens when they cross over back with some new variant?)
- chinathrow 5y ago
  Superbug, anyone?
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  Massive difference between 4 billion and 1 billion. We are already at 4 billion now. Also, some countries are hitting 90%. If a large portion of the population is vaxxed, it stops spreading as much even among the unvaxxed, which reduces opportunity to mutate. Deer don't have the same selective pressure as we do.
  - zpeti 5y ago
    On a viruses mutation potential? 1bn and 4bn is not orders of magnitude different. I don't think 1bn unvaccinated people is a guarantee of no more mutations. Especially when the vaccinated are still spreading, and selecting for more infectious mutations also.
    - whimsicalism 5y ago
      Nothing is a guarantee of no mutations, that is why we think of the world probabilistically. But there is a multiplicative effect - the sparser unvaxxed people become, the less general spread there will be. The vaxxed are still spreading and it is true they cause selection, but this has been well studied and widespread vaccination absolutely would help reduce the rate of mutation.
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Vaccinating the developed world is a start - but it isn't a panacea. If the global Covid #s are accurate - the majority of the Covid infections happening are in the developed world. It'd be great if we could stop the spread in the developing world - but we need to stop it in the developed world, too - or else mutations are still bound to happen.
- ianai 5y ago
  If we want to be nihilists, it’s spreading throughout deer populations and I doubt anybody is even entertaining the idea of vaccinating wild populations.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    Very different selection effects. Plus less selection in close proximity to vaccinate individuals.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  lol global covid #s are not close to accurate, obviously.
- angelzen 5y ago
  # observed infections = # of infections * probability of testing * probability of authority trustworthiness. Alas, in the developing world test penetration is low and authorities are not particularly trustworthy.
whimsicalism 5y ago
The West is not monolithic. Portugal is at 90% for instance.
roody15 5y ago
"This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world" Careful here. There is no guarantee that once 95% of the world is vaccinated that this will be solved. Respiratory viral infections are notorious for mutating and spreading regardless of vaccines or treatment. IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Its quite possible this virus is simply here to stay and a multi array of treatments will hopefully continue to improve outcomes.
- tzs 5y ago
  He is making an A is a necessary condition for B claim, not an A is a sufficient condition for B claim.
- zpeti 5y ago
  > IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Well said. And at this point we should pray this doesn't turn into a Marek's disease replica https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention
  - ipspam 5y ago
    The vaccine is leaky. Therefore, the vaccine will do more bad than good, long term. This variant could be the one to popularize Original Antigenic Sin. Hopefully not.... But part of me wants for the Fu*** to learn their lesson and stop punishing dissent, pretending they are god (they being politicians and scientists)
    - ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago
      The trouble is the authorities won't learn anything - many could care less about science or history, they just care about power and influence. I do agree that more dissent and conflicting expert opinions were needed in this crisis. Especially dangerous is the idea that "if only everyone did X", then all will be well. This is rarely true. I think the government's role should be to transmit the best possible information available at the moment, give some strong recommendations and incentives (and change them when new information comes to light), but never use force and coercion. It simply doesn't work in the long run.
aiilns 5y ago
Strange then that he made sure that developing countries would have to rely on the developed world for the vaccines by fighting against open science and sharing of know-how. https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-global-access-covid-vaccines https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-gl...
- GDC7 5y ago
  Of course it would have been great for people who are already dealing with malaria and HIV to inject with a vaccine put together in a factory somewhere in Kinshasa where the measuring instruments for quantities are just two : left and right eyeball.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  Let's see how we do on the next pandemic if we screw the IP out of all of the producers who stepped up to produce a vaccine. If the scenario is that they'd still have their mRNA IP if they had decided not to make a vaccine, that is not the incentive structure we want to setup. It's also not where the constraint lies.
twofornone 5y ago
>This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world, so that we curb and slow down the emergence of variants. Cases have been surging for at least a month in 70-95% vaccinated countries. It is absolutely clear at this point that these vaccines will not eradicate covid. This madness over vaccines needs to end. The 1918 flu pandemic ended without a vaccine. Covid will pass as well. In many parts of the US life is effectively back to normal - and if ICUs are still out of capacity after two years of this pandemic then clearly there's a different, more readily solvable problem. Covid is not going anywhere but the hysteria is not justified - people are dramatically overestimating the risks.
- peter422 5y ago
  At least you could mention that the cases are mainly surging in the unvaccinated. Also I don’t think anybody has said vaccines are going to eradicate covid, it is just a matter of saving peoples lives from completely preventable suffering and death.
- zrail 5y ago
  The problem is the healthcare system. If the healthcare system collapses because doctors and nurses die, get long covid and can't work, or just burn out and leave, then the chances of dying from literally everything else go up significantly. Easily treatable cancers don't get treated because there's no capacity. People who get hurt in car crashes don't get seen and die of infections or sepsis or whatever because there aren't any ER beds. Everyone delays elective care because there's no capacity. In short, it's never been about saving the population in general, although that is a desirable side effect. The entire lock down and vaccination push has been about preserving the healthcare system. Doctors and nurses take many years to make, it's not exactly a quick fix.
  - throwaway55421 5y ago
    Sure, but despite global leaders knowing that this would be a forever thing, barely anyone has even begun to train more healthcare professionals.
ianai 5y ago
So far the variant is very rare (unless there are newer numbers than I found yesterday). There’s a lag of months, I think, between these numbers and where it becomes a phenomenon you’re likely to interact with at the local store. Further, the world should be reacting to Covid at the global level. So far it’s like we’re not even addressing the beast on the turf it’s attacking us. And the price to do so, say 70 billion USD at a cost of 10$/dose (which it probably isn’t), is nothing compared to the reacting we’re seeing here today and will continue to see.
- koheripbal 5y ago
  It has rapidly displaced all other variants in South Africa. It's only rare from a global perspective. It will be commonplace soon.
  - timr 5y ago
    Those "rapdily displaced" numbers are based on a small number of samples and are not to be trusted. The fact that they're being repeated now is essentially fear-mongering by the news media.
  - jwblackwell 5y ago
    The number of cases in South Africa before this was very low as well, there aren’t many other cases of delta to compete with
boringg 5y ago
I think you can find a more reputable source than Bill Gates? He's got some cred issues these days.
- VectorLock 5y ago
  What do you think is Bill Gate's cred issues? Bill Gates' credibility with me is at an all time high.
  - shock 5y ago
    He has financial interests in the health sector.
    - missedthecue 5y ago
      Who doesn't? He's independently wealthy regardless of whether startup investments got to zero or not.
      - shock 5y ago
        Being independently wealthy is irrelevant. Do you stop caring how your investment portfolio does, just because it won't bankrupt you if it goes to 0?
        missedthecue 5y ago
        Do you go to extreme efforts, enduring public lambasting simply in order to get returns on 0.002% of your portfolio? When you've already got so much money you can't give it away fast enough? I think it takes some exceptionally motivated reasoning to believe that Mr. Gates is doing this because he only wants money.
vibrato2 5y ago
As vaccinations have increased, so have both case load and excess death rate. I’ll pass.
GoodJokes 5y ago
As always Bill Gates parrots what a bunch of scientists told him.
disabled 5y ago
Nu developed because western governments prioritized PhRMA’s IP price gouging over the lives of people in Africa. Note: PhRMA is a lobbying group.
throwaway55421 5y ago
Except our current vaccines only act as a reduction in severity/spread of disease. We could have 100% worldwide vaccination including animal reservoirs and still get mutations. There is no easy out here unless we develop sterilizing immunity. Life is just a bit more dangerous now and that's that.
andrew_ 5y ago
How does immunity from prior infection play into these numbers?
ravenstine 5y ago
If that were true, why has New Zealand failed to stop COVID? They're a couple of islands surrounded by over a thousand miles of ocean between them and neighboring countries, they did lockdowns and achieved over 90% vaccine compliance, and after all this time they recently admitted that they no longer believed they could stop the virus. https://www.yahoo.com/news/zealand-once-paragon-covid-zero-060801532.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/zealand-once-paragon-covid-zero-0... Don't forget that, yes, a certain percentage of that remaining 10% have either natural immunity or aren't going to experience symptoms. I'm pretty skeptical at this point that any doubling-down is going to lead to anything but more doubling-down.
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  They made too many exceptions on entry protocols for the rich, powerful, and well connected.
ODILON_SATER 5y ago
Who's to say that the person who harbored this mutation wasn't vaccinated? The only thing we know is that they suspect it developed in an individual with HIV.
dekhn 5y ago
Bill, like many CS people, doesn't understand biology well enough to couch his statements. We could do what he said, and not have that outcome. In particular, I really doubt that some sort of magical herd immunity shows up when; that's been a wild guess of some scientists for a while, but it's not really a firm prediction. BTW, with some of the newly designed vaccines, if the virus mutates, the vaccine can be rapidly changed to respond to that (because it's sequence based). That changes things a lot.
timr 5y ago
> the West is stockpiling jabs for people who essentially don't want it. ...and also don't need it (boosters for healthy, young people). The WHO has repeatedly begged the western world to stop prioritizing boosters for healthy people, but the west continues to do this, instead of getting shots to the rest of the world: https://archive.md/BnEtn#a-scandal-who-says-the-rate-of-boosters-outstrips-some-poor-countries-vaccinations https://archive.md/BnEtn#a-scandal-who-says-the-rate-of-boos... This all seems to be a tragic attempt by politicians to appease their terrified base, coupled with incompetent scientists who continue to pursue eradication as a goal.
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  Egged on by the media who loves parading dead children on screen with the admonishment "If only someone had protected them".
- hyperman1 5y ago
  I don't think there is a terrified base. People either vaccinated or scream very loud they don't want to. I do think the politicians are getting terrified. They have been incompetent since at least the 90's. Until now, first world circumstances were good enough that nobody cared much. Corona changed that. There is a need for coordination on a massive scale, and they simply aren't up to it. You can't blather your way out of Covid. People are looking at them, and it's almost impossible to notice they aren't good for just about anything.
  - timr 5y ago
    There are definitely vaccinated people who continue to believe they're "at risk", and are demanding boosters, loudly. I know some personally, and I see this all over social media. Agreed about the politicians being terrified, but I tend to be more sanguine: this is a modern re-telling of Canute and the tide, but the leaders aren't intelligent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_tide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_tide The people are demanding that the tides be pushed back, and the leaders are doing the bidding of the people (and CNN is on 24/7, with Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon telling people that the tides are coming to get them and their children.) The original sin here was giving them the power to take away our fundamental rights in the first place. The rest was sadly predictable.
VoodooJuJu 5y ago
Vaccines are a band-aid fix for a much deeper systemic issue. The real fix is to sever the codependency of peoples separated by thousands of miles. Why should a disease outbreak in some far away Mongolian village affect me here in my village? Why are we moving to and through everyone else's villages so frequently? Coupled with a too-efficient and codependent (fragile) logistics system, look at how damaging the outbreak of a relatively minor [1] disease has proven to be. What happens when an actual black swan strikes at our codependent little global village? What then? "The wise person reduces the importance of governments And simplifies the modes of living, So that people use fewer tools and wares And treasure simplicity in their lives, So that, though there are vehicles, People do not take them. And, though there are weapons, People do not carry them. And, though there are records, Tying knots will serve the record-keeping purpose. Thus, the highest political achievement is one In which people savor their food, Like the beauty of their clothes, Appreciate their safe and peaceful homes, Enjoy their social customs; And in which roosters and dogs Can be heard between countries; But people, all their lives, Have no need to go across the borders." - Translated by Liu Qixuan, Chapter 80 of the Tao Te Ching by Laozi [1] relative to bubonic plague, smallpox, polio, etc.
- natch 5y ago
  You say “real fix”, but this is a fantasy.
- ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago
  This hasn't been possible since the silk road and was created. No one is going back to the pre-modern world.
jwblackwell 5y ago
Keep in mind that South Africa is currently pausing shipments of vaccines because there’s not enough demand for them. I’m not saying that vaccine availability isn’t a problem anywhere in the emerging world but it’s not the only issue.

by GDC7 5y ago

jimbokun 5y ago

One of the best returns on investment the U.S. government could make would probably be to pour money into ramping up vaccine production to give to poor countries. I believe the cost would be tiny relative to the economic risk of allowing more mutations and continued spread of Covid.

DantesKite 5y ago

You’re talking about a continent that has endemic malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV. Not saying the factors you brought up aren’t important. They are, but it’s not so simple.

belter 5y ago

How is Bill Gates more competent to talk about vaccines than anybody else here?

GDC7 5y ago
Because he's been in the health battleground called Africa since 2000.
dageshi 5y ago
His foundation has been trying to fight/wipe out various communicable diseases since 2000... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation#Global_health_division https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundat...
- belter 5y ago
  I am aware of his billions and the many ways he makes them. I have a machine sitting at my desk that never got close to an inch close to Windows, runs exclusively Linux, but a part of the money I paid for the hardware, ends up at Microsoft. But if I donate 10 billion to promote child education does not make me an expert on it. I am however, aware of some his efforts to restrict global access to vaccines something that will definitely be shown to be a mistake as new Covid mutations emerge outside of the rich "triple vaccinated world" "How Bill Gates Impeded Global Access to Covid Vaccines" https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-global-access-covid-vaccines https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-gl...

mandmandam 5y ago

>94% vaccinated in Ireland, and we're still hoarding boosters, and demonising the unvaccinated. Meanwhile, our schools remain fully packed, with no additional resources for air quality, and the government have even told schools not to inform parents of COVID cases in classrooms. I can't help but wonder if all this cack-handedness is in relation to the contracts Pfizer "negotiated" with governments - https://www.citizen.org/article/pfizers-power/ https://www.citizen.org/article/pfizers-power/ PS Bill Gates is still responsible for an almost incalculable amount of harm, because of his actions against free and libre software and small businesses.

GDC7 5y ago
> PS Bill Gates is still responsible for an almost incalculable amount of harm, because of his actions against free and libre software and small businesses. Free and libre software was always doomed because people who are worth their weight in gold due to their programming abilities want a nice mansion in Naples, FL with a nice dock and a 40 footer boat , not just a tap on their shoulders for a job well done.
- mandmandam 5y ago
  > Free and libre software was always doomed .. Then why did Bill have to try so incredibly hard to fuck them up?

ssk_ 5y ago

In this particular case, South Africa is having trouble vaccinating its population with sufficient supply. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-...

Mountain_Skies 5y ago
I wonder how much of that is hesitancy and how much is logistics or corruption.

unmole 5y ago

Not necessarily disagreeing with the thrust of your comment but South Africa asked vaccine manufactures to delay vaccine deliveries because it has too much stock: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-inoculations-slow-2021-11-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-... It's not just the matter of shipping out vaccines to the developing world.

zpeti 5y ago

The numbers just don't add up for me. There are almost 8bn people in the world. Sceptical countries get 50% of their population vaccinated. Compliant countries say 80%. Even if it's 80%, that still means after everyone you can has been vaccinated you still have 1.6bn-4bn people unvaccinated. You also can't vaccinate everyone at once. Vaccinating the world inevitably takes years, not months. That leaves a lot of room for mutations. I don't see logistically how you get over that, you just can't. It sounds good but I don't see the practical solutions. (And then we haven't even talked about cross infection with animals, deers are now 80% infected or something with covid? What happens when they cross over back with some new variant?)

chinathrow 5y ago
Superbug, anyone?
whimsicalism 5y ago
Massive difference between 4 billion and 1 billion. We are already at 4 billion now. Also, some countries are hitting 90%. If a large portion of the population is vaxxed, it stops spreading as much even among the unvaxxed, which reduces opportunity to mutate. Deer don't have the same selective pressure as we do.
- zpeti 5y ago
  On a viruses mutation potential? 1bn and 4bn is not orders of magnitude different. I don't think 1bn unvaccinated people is a guarantee of no more mutations. Especially when the vaccinated are still spreading, and selecting for more infectious mutations also.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    Nothing is a guarantee of no mutations, that is why we think of the world probabilistically. But there is a multiplicative effect - the sparser unvaxxed people become, the less general spread there will be. The vaxxed are still spreading and it is true they cause selection, but this has been well studied and widespread vaccination absolutely would help reduce the rate of mutation.

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

Vaccinating the developed world is a start - but it isn't a panacea. If the global Covid #s are accurate - the majority of the Covid infections happening are in the developed world. It'd be great if we could stop the spread in the developing world - but we need to stop it in the developed world, too - or else mutations are still bound to happen.

ianai 5y ago
If we want to be nihilists, it’s spreading throughout deer populations and I doubt anybody is even entertaining the idea of vaccinating wild populations.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  Very different selection effects. Plus less selection in close proximity to vaccinate individuals.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
whimsicalism 5y ago
lol global covid #s are not close to accurate, obviously.
angelzen 5y ago
# observed infections = # of infections * probability of testing * probability of authority trustworthiness. Alas, in the developing world test penetration is low and authorities are not particularly trustworthy.

whimsicalism 5y ago

The West is not monolithic. Portugal is at 90% for instance.

roody15 5y ago

"This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world" Careful here. There is no guarantee that once 95% of the world is vaccinated that this will be solved. Respiratory viral infections are notorious for mutating and spreading regardless of vaccines or treatment. IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Its quite possible this virus is simply here to stay and a multi array of treatments will hopefully continue to improve outcomes.

tzs 5y ago
He is making an A is a necessary condition for B claim, not an A is a sufficient condition for B claim.
zpeti 5y ago
> IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Well said. And at this point we should pray this doesn't turn into a Marek's disease replica https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention
- ipspam 5y ago
  The vaccine is leaky. Therefore, the vaccine will do more bad than good, long term. This variant could be the one to popularize Original Antigenic Sin. Hopefully not.... But part of me wants for the Fu*** to learn their lesson and stop punishing dissent, pretending they are god (they being politicians and scientists)
  - ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago
    The trouble is the authorities won't learn anything - many could care less about science or history, they just care about power and influence. I do agree that more dissent and conflicting expert opinions were needed in this crisis. Especially dangerous is the idea that "if only everyone did X", then all will be well. This is rarely true. I think the government's role should be to transmit the best possible information available at the moment, give some strong recommendations and incentives (and change them when new information comes to light), but never use force and coercion. It simply doesn't work in the long run.

aiilns 5y ago

Strange then that he made sure that developing countries would have to rely on the developed world for the vaccines by fighting against open science and sharing of know-how. https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-global-access-covid-vaccines https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-gl...

GDC7 5y ago
Of course it would have been great for people who are already dealing with malaria and HIV to inject with a vaccine put together in a factory somewhere in Kinshasa where the measuring instruments for quantities are just two : left and right eyeball.
whimsicalism 5y ago
Let's see how we do on the next pandemic if we screw the IP out of all of the producers who stepped up to produce a vaccine. If the scenario is that they'd still have their mRNA IP if they had decided not to make a vaccine, that is not the incentive structure we want to setup. It's also not where the constraint lies.

twofornone 5y ago

>This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world, so that we curb and slow down the emergence of variants. Cases have been surging for at least a month in 70-95% vaccinated countries. It is absolutely clear at this point that these vaccines will not eradicate covid. This madness over vaccines needs to end. The 1918 flu pandemic ended without a vaccine. Covid will pass as well. In many parts of the US life is effectively back to normal - and if ICUs are still out of capacity after two years of this pandemic then clearly there's a different, more readily solvable problem. Covid is not going anywhere but the hysteria is not justified - people are dramatically overestimating the risks.

peter422 5y ago
At least you could mention that the cases are mainly surging in the unvaccinated. Also I don’t think anybody has said vaccines are going to eradicate covid, it is just a matter of saving peoples lives from completely preventable suffering and death.
zrail 5y ago
The problem is the healthcare system. If the healthcare system collapses because doctors and nurses die, get long covid and can't work, or just burn out and leave, then the chances of dying from literally everything else go up significantly. Easily treatable cancers don't get treated because there's no capacity. People who get hurt in car crashes don't get seen and die of infections or sepsis or whatever because there aren't any ER beds. Everyone delays elective care because there's no capacity. In short, it's never been about saving the population in general, although that is a desirable side effect. The entire lock down and vaccination push has been about preserving the healthcare system. Doctors and nurses take many years to make, it's not exactly a quick fix.
- throwaway55421 5y ago
  Sure, but despite global leaders knowing that this would be a forever thing, barely anyone has even begun to train more healthcare professionals.

ianai 5y ago

So far the variant is very rare (unless there are newer numbers than I found yesterday). There’s a lag of months, I think, between these numbers and where it becomes a phenomenon you’re likely to interact with at the local store. Further, the world should be reacting to Covid at the global level. So far it’s like we’re not even addressing the beast on the turf it’s attacking us. And the price to do so, say 70 billion USD at a cost of 10$/dose (which it probably isn’t), is nothing compared to the reacting we’re seeing here today and will continue to see.

koheripbal 5y ago
It has rapidly displaced all other variants in South Africa. It's only rare from a global perspective. It will be commonplace soon.
- timr 5y ago
  Those "rapdily displaced" numbers are based on a small number of samples and are not to be trusted. The fact that they're being repeated now is essentially fear-mongering by the news media.
- jwblackwell 5y ago
  The number of cases in South Africa before this was very low as well, there aren’t many other cases of delta to compete with

boringg 5y ago

I think you can find a more reputable source than Bill Gates? He's got some cred issues these days.

VectorLock 5y ago
What do you think is Bill Gate's cred issues? Bill Gates' credibility with me is at an all time high.
- shock 5y ago
  He has financial interests in the health sector.
  - missedthecue 5y ago
    Who doesn't? He's independently wealthy regardless of whether startup investments got to zero or not.
    - shock 5y ago
      Being independently wealthy is irrelevant. Do you stop caring how your investment portfolio does, just because it won't bankrupt you if it goes to 0?
      - missedthecue 5y ago
        Do you go to extreme efforts, enduring public lambasting simply in order to get returns on 0.002% of your portfolio? When you've already got so much money you can't give it away fast enough? I think it takes some exceptionally motivated reasoning to believe that Mr. Gates is doing this because he only wants money.

vibrato2 5y ago

As vaccinations have increased, so have both case load and excess death rate. I’ll pass.

GoodJokes 5y ago

As always Bill Gates parrots what a bunch of scientists told him.

disabled 5y ago

Nu developed because western governments prioritized PhRMA’s IP price gouging over the lives of people in Africa. Note: PhRMA is a lobbying group.

throwaway55421 5y ago

Except our current vaccines only act as a reduction in severity/spread of disease. We could have 100% worldwide vaccination including animal reservoirs and still get mutations. There is no easy out here unless we develop sterilizing immunity. Life is just a bit more dangerous now and that's that.

andrew_ 5y ago

How does immunity from prior infection play into these numbers?

ravenstine 5y ago

If that were true, why has New Zealand failed to stop COVID? They're a couple of islands surrounded by over a thousand miles of ocean between them and neighboring countries, they did lockdowns and achieved over 90% vaccine compliance, and after all this time they recently admitted that they no longer believed they could stop the virus. https://www.yahoo.com/news/zealand-once-paragon-covid-zero-060801532.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/zealand-once-paragon-covid-zero-0... Don't forget that, yes, a certain percentage of that remaining 10% have either natural immunity or aren't going to experience symptoms. I'm pretty skeptical at this point that any doubling-down is going to lead to anything but more doubling-down.

Mountain_Skies 5y ago
They made too many exceptions on entry protocols for the rich, powerful, and well connected.

ODILON_SATER 5y ago

Who's to say that the person who harbored this mutation wasn't vaccinated? The only thing we know is that they suspect it developed in an individual with HIV.

dekhn 5y ago

Bill, like many CS people, doesn't understand biology well enough to couch his statements. We could do what he said, and not have that outcome. In particular, I really doubt that some sort of magical herd immunity shows up when; that's been a wild guess of some scientists for a while, but it's not really a firm prediction. BTW, with some of the newly designed vaccines, if the virus mutates, the vaccine can be rapidly changed to respond to that (because it's sequence based). That changes things a lot.

timr 5y ago

> the West is stockpiling jabs for people who essentially don't want it. ...and also don't need it (boosters for healthy, young people). The WHO has repeatedly begged the western world to stop prioritizing boosters for healthy people, but the west continues to do this, instead of getting shots to the rest of the world: https://archive.md/BnEtn#a-scandal-who-says-the-rate-of-boosters-outstrips-some-poor-countries-vaccinations https://archive.md/BnEtn#a-scandal-who-says-the-rate-of-boos... This all seems to be a tragic attempt by politicians to appease their terrified base, coupled with incompetent scientists who continue to pursue eradication as a goal.

Mountain_Skies 5y ago
Egged on by the media who loves parading dead children on screen with the admonishment "If only someone had protected them".
hyperman1 5y ago
I don't think there is a terrified base. People either vaccinated or scream very loud they don't want to. I do think the politicians are getting terrified. They have been incompetent since at least the 90's. Until now, first world circumstances were good enough that nobody cared much. Corona changed that. There is a need for coordination on a massive scale, and they simply aren't up to it. You can't blather your way out of Covid. People are looking at them, and it's almost impossible to notice they aren't good for just about anything.
- timr 5y ago
  There are definitely vaccinated people who continue to believe they're "at risk", and are demanding boosters, loudly. I know some personally, and I see this all over social media. Agreed about the politicians being terrified, but I tend to be more sanguine: this is a modern re-telling of Canute and the tide, but the leaders aren't intelligent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_tide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_tide The people are demanding that the tides be pushed back, and the leaders are doing the bidding of the people (and CNN is on 24/7, with Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon telling people that the tides are coming to get them and their children.) The original sin here was giving them the power to take away our fundamental rights in the first place. The rest was sadly predictable.

VoodooJuJu 5y ago

Vaccines are a band-aid fix for a much deeper systemic issue. The real fix is to sever the codependency of peoples separated by thousands of miles. Why should a disease outbreak in some far away Mongolian village affect me here in my village? Why are we moving to and through everyone else's villages so frequently? Coupled with a too-efficient and codependent (fragile) logistics system, look at how damaging the outbreak of a relatively minor [1] disease has proven to be. What happens when an actual black swan strikes at our codependent little global village? What then? "The wise person reduces the importance of governments And simplifies the modes of living, So that people use fewer tools and wares And treasure simplicity in their lives, So that, though there are vehicles, People do not take them. And, though there are weapons, People do not carry them. And, though there are records, Tying knots will serve the record-keeping purpose. Thus, the highest political achievement is one In which people savor their food, Like the beauty of their clothes, Appreciate their safe and peaceful homes, Enjoy their social customs; And in which roosters and dogs Can be heard between countries; But people, all their lives, Have no need to go across the borders." - Translated by Liu Qixuan, Chapter 80 of the Tao Te Ching by Laozi [1] relative to bubonic plague, smallpox, polio, etc.

natch 5y ago
You say “real fix”, but this is a fantasy.
ahdh8f4hf4h8 5y ago
This hasn't been possible since the silk road and was created. No one is going back to the pre-modern world.

jwblackwell 5y ago

Keep in mind that South Africa is currently pausing shipments of vaccines because there’s not enough demand for them. I’m not saying that vaccine availability isn’t a problem anywhere in the emerging world but it’s not the only issue.