10 ms·

A smallpox pandemic would be orders of magnitude more deadly than COVID. COVID has a very low death rate and is comparable to the flu, whereas Smallpox kills 30

A smallpox pandemic would be orders of magnitude more deadly than COVID. COVID has a very low death rate and is comparable to the flu, whereas Smallpox kills 30% of people it infects and disfigures an even higher percentage. And my understanding is that it is just as contagious (may be wrong on this). Read up on Operation Dark Winter (2001 era wargame of a US smallpox outbreak) for details on how this might play out. Spoiler alert - nothing good happens to humanity. EDIT: I appear to have pissed off a lot of people by comparing COVID to the flu. I apologize, I simply meant that COVID is a lot closer to the flu than it is to smallpox. I am vaccinated and wear a mask everywhere, I am not trying to "downplay COVID" or whatever.

fredgrott 5y ago
ahem, death rate for CID is above th death for flu. What data are you relying upon?
luke2m 5y ago
Username checks out.
lazide 5y ago
Smallpox is significantly less infectious, and generally requires close and extended contact with a person who is coughing and infectious or a surface recently contaminated by someone with open sores. Original variant was about half as infectious as measles (the most infectious known human disease), and some of the many of the new Covid variants are very very close (about 80%) as infectious as measles. Difference between ‘you pass it to your friend’ and ‘you walk by a group of people in the park and they’re infected’
- timr 5y ago
  > Smallpox is significantly less infectious, and generally requires close and extended contact with a person who is coughing and infectious or a surface recently contaminated by someone with open sores. I don't know where you're getting your numbers. Current estimates for smallpox R0 are all over the place (as are the Covid ones, but I digress) and run from 1-20, with contemporary numbers as high as 6: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399/ Measuring R0 is not like measuring a physical constant of the universe, or the seek latency of a hard drive or something. The value varies with time and context, and the best we ever get for a virus is a vague idea of relative infectiousness. Comparing virus X to virus Y based on R0 alone is largely a fool's errand, particularly for a virus that hasn't been in a human in decades. Smallpox has rather infamously spread between stories of a building from a closed laboratory (this is disputed, but plausible), so I wouldn't be so quick to characterize it as requiring "close and extended contact": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_... > you walk by a group of people in the park and they’re infected This has never been documented in the entire history of SARS-CoV2. For that matter, there have been almost no documented outdoor infections, in any context. These hysterical claims need to be put down.
  - lazide 5y ago
    Ah, your data is well out of date. This isn’t hysteria, and I don’t think hysteria is called for. If smallpox had these numbers, well, that is a different story. But smallpox has had likely thousands of years to evolve higher infectivity, and seems to have reached a local maxima that isn’t there. Covid still has time to explore options. Measured R0 in New York for COVID was 6.4 [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v...] for the original strain before lockdown and masking. Those appear to have greatly reduced the basic replication rate to around .9-1.3 or so shortly afterwards. As they are very severe countermeasures, it’s disingenuous to use the reduced replication rate ‘raw’ as no one is going to be doing them ‘naturally’. The delta variant (B.1.617.2), now dominant in California and elsewhere, is approximately 2x more infectious than that original variant from the data I’ve found, which is limited [easiest thing I could fine here was https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/07/994710459/is-the-variant-from-india-the-most-contagious-coronavirus-mutant-on-the-planet https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/07/9947104...]. That would put it (in a ‘natural’ setting) at R0 being roughly 12-13. Measles is estimated to have a R0 of 12-18. [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28757186/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28757186/] Outdoor infection IS less likely - this study of infected construction workers show only 1.4% of their outdoor only co-workers were infected by infected workers, where 43% of people they lived with and 26% of people they had indoor contact with while working got infected. There are many documented cases of outdoor infections, and even more where no known source could be found and all indoor or other sources were ruled out. New variants driving up infectivity will of course drive this number up over time if infections are allowed to spread (albeit hopefully vaccination can cut it off at the knees). What does this mean? Without a vigorous public health response, Covid will continue to spread. It may continue to spread despite a very rigorous response from authorities because the body count is going to be low enough that many people just won’t care. If we get an unfortunate deadlier variant, then maybe that will change. But one thing appears sure - we’re past the point (if there ever was one) where there is anything easy or pleasant that is going to happen.
    - timr 5y ago
      > Ah, your data is well out of date. Smallpox has been eradicated since the 1970s. There is no other data, and the data that exists doesn't support your assertion. A paper from 2001 is up to date. Citing point estimates for SARS-CoV2 is not a rebuttal; there are many such estimates, and as I said, they're specific to time and place. The best you can do is compare distributions and look for general trends. > The delta variant (B.1.617.2), now dominant in California and elsewhere, is approximately 2x more infectious than that original variant from the data I’ve found...That would put it (in a ‘natural’ setting) at R0 being roughly 12-13 You're just making things up. You can't take an old estimate, multiply it by some arbitrary factor, and draw a conclusion from it.
jayflux 5y ago
> A smallpox pandemic would be orders of magnitude more deadly than COVID Edit: fair enough there’s no vaccinations for smallpox anymore. But countries do still buy stockpiles
- jinpa_zangpo 5y ago
  Childhood vaccinations against smallpox in the US stopped in 1971, 50 years ago. https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article-abstract/49/4/489/47117/THE-END-OF-ROUTINE-SMALLPOX-VACCINATION-IN-THE https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article-abstract/49/...
- joshuaissac 5y ago
  > People still get vaccinated against smallpox when they’re young No, they don't. I do not think there is even a single country that routinely vaccinates children against smallpox.
- valarauko 5y ago
  I don't think universal smallpox vaccination for infants is the case in any country now, at least since the 1980's.
- max-ibel 5y ago
  No they don't, at least in the US. Older people may still be vaccinated in their youth (I guess when born before 1980s).
  - u801e 5y ago
    They stopped vaccinating against smallpox in 1972[1]. It was administered around 12 months of age before then. So anyone in the US born in 1972 or later is most likely unvaccinated. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/index.html [2] https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-details/smallpox-vaccine https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-cent...
- bee_rider 5y ago
kupiakos 5y ago
COVID is not comparable to the flu. It's 3-20x as deadly depending on a variety of factors. Smallpox would still be significantly more deadly than COVID individually, but I'd bet people would take lockdowns much more seriously for smallpox than they did for COVID, preventing a pandemic and resulting in fewer deaths overall. Especially because people believe falsehoods like "COVID is comparable to the flu" because it downplays the risk.
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  30ish% fatality rate of small pox. I think Black Plague was like 60% fatality rate and killed so many people that it's theorized it paved the way for the enlightenment by disrupting entrenched economic stratification. Covid is essentially the flu compared to a real historical pandemic. There were not any 'black plague' deniers.
- schrodinger 5y ago
  Give the benefit of the doubt. It’s certainly deadlier but still comparable in the scheme of things relative to a 30% death rate virus. I’m vaxxed and have a booster, mask up, and def not a denier but it’s true that the death rate of covid is fairly low for most folks.
  - gfodor 5y ago
    You’re right. People are triggered by the comparison.
  - hunterb123 5y ago
    The amount of apologizing and disclaiming in this thread is sad. You shouldn't have to announce your medical history to compare fatality rates of a virus.
- chasil 5y ago
  This is a good history on the effects and changing forms of treatment. "The case-fatality rate varied from 20% to 60% and left most survivors with disfiguring scars. The case-fatality rate in infants was even higher, approaching 80% in London and 98% in Berlin during the late 1800s." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/
bastardoperator 5y ago
This is certifably false when it comes to covid and the flu: according to Johns Hopkins University, about 3.1 million people around the world had died of COVID-19 as of April 26, 2021. The flu, meanwhile, kills between 290,000 to 650,000 people every year worldwide, according to the World Health Organization.
- gfodor 5y ago
  A 5x difference largely skewed towards the elderly and obese fits the definition of “comparable”, but ofc this is assumed to be a downplaying tactic.
  - himinlomax 5y ago
    The flu also kills mostly the elderly and sick. In fact I get the impression that it does so more than Covid does.
  - bastardoperator 5y ago
    It is when you look at the flu data. You think the flu kills more people on average? It doesn't, and most people that die from the flu are also elderly or have pre-existing conditions.
    - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
      Your comment is going to age like skim milk. Covid killed so many people because it was novel. It'll likely decline year over year as the population either develops antibodies or dies (of covid or natural causes).
      - bastardoperator 5y ago
        "likely" That doesn't sound very confident...
        spurgu 5y ago
paxys 5y ago
We know what smallpox is, how it spreads, how to slow it down/prevent it, and most importantly we will have a vaccine for it in every pharmacy well before it breaks out the way covid did. The two are not at all comparable.
- bluGill 5y ago
  I don't think we can grow our smallpox vaccine stockpile that fast. We know how to make them and have the ability, but getting production to scale will take a fair amount of time.
  - heavyset_go 5y ago
    This was one of the bottlenecks that COVID vaccines faced, as well. Researchers made COVID vaccines relatively quickly, and it took a relatively long time for mass production to ramp up.
    - bluGill 5y ago
      True, but with mRNA it is a lot easier to pivot. If there by chance had been a flu vaccine using mRNA we would have been able to switch to COVID much faster. Most vaccine technologies don't pivot that fast.
  - HarryHirsch 5y ago
    Smallpox vaccine can be grown in people - look at how the original vaccination campaigns got theirs across the ocean before there was refrigeration. If there was a smallpox outbreak the country the country would go to a sudden stop and everyone would race to be vaccinated, it is that deadly. Unfortunately, Covid is in that uncanny valley where too many people do not care until it hits them personally. That's why we are all fucked.
    - spurgu 5y ago
      "we are all fucked" seems like a rather exaggerated conclusion. It's like you're excluding how many people there are who are not bothered even when it hits them personally.
topkai22 5y ago
Smallpox is roughly as contagious as SARS-Cov2 Delta and therefore more transmossible than the original variant. However those numbers are the unmitigated numbers. Public health and other authority figures have some advantages in fighting smallpox versus SARS-Cov2. IIRC, smallpox is not infectious until the "pox" are visible on the body, greatly improving ability to screen for the disease and the vaccine traditional used creates a small but visible scar, again aiding screening. The world also maintains a significant (300M doses vaccine stockpile in the US as well as other countries) with already approved vaccines that can begin manufacturering immediately. Finally, smallpox is so deadly and obviously horrific that it "should" help public health officials get past vaccine and other mitigation "hesitantcy". A smallpox pandemic would truly be devastating and much worse then Covid19, but thankful there is reason to believe outbreaks could be controlled before pandemic status was reached. One of my biggest worries coming out of Covid19 is how epidemiological public health has become tied up in political identity and that the next pandemic will see significant portions of the population actively resisting outbreak control measures.
- lazide 5y ago
  Based on what I’ve been able to find, Delta would have a ‘raw’ (without extensive countermeasures) R0 of 12-13 (original Covid was measured in NYC pre-masking and lockdowns at 6.4). Do you have cites for the other numbers you have? Totally agree on severity (or lack thereof) being why it is spreading and thriving. Also the high asymptomatic spread helps too. You can’t get the consistent, strong response in taking countermeasures you’d get from something more visibly horrific like Ebola. Though there have been many cases in Africa of someone sneaking in to loot a ‘dead’ village or graveyard and starting a new outbreak when they get home. So apparently even almost certainly dying a horrible death while bleeding from every opening isn’t enough to get everyone to take it seriously.
  - topkai22 5y ago
    A December 2020 journal article I was using (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7751056/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7751056/) gave an r0 range of the original of 1.5-6.68 across various studies. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34369565/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34369565/ puts Delta at about 5.08 and the origin strain at around 2.79. There is a lot of range in numbers I've seen, but the proportion is generally agreed to be about 2X for Delta to the origin strain. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399 has smallpox between 3.5 to 6, so closer to Delta than the origin strain. I didn't look into these numbers to deeply as they seemed to be under active debate and my point was that smallpox is in the range of Delta, not the specific number.
eunos 5y ago
With anti vaxx arguably has more influence and voice due to social media, that'd be disaster.

fredgrott 5y ago

ahem, death rate for CID is above th death for flu. What data are you relying upon?

luke2m 5y ago

Username checks out.

lazide 5y ago

Smallpox is significantly less infectious, and generally requires close and extended contact with a person who is coughing and infectious or a surface recently contaminated by someone with open sores. Original variant was about half as infectious as measles (the most infectious known human disease), and some of the many of the new Covid variants are very very close (about 80%) as infectious as measles. Difference between ‘you pass it to your friend’ and ‘you walk by a group of people in the park and they’re infected’

timr 5y ago
> Smallpox is significantly less infectious, and generally requires close and extended contact with a person who is coughing and infectious or a surface recently contaminated by someone with open sores. I don't know where you're getting your numbers. Current estimates for smallpox R0 are all over the place (as are the Covid ones, but I digress) and run from 1-20, with contemporary numbers as high as 6: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399/ Measuring R0 is not like measuring a physical constant of the universe, or the seek latency of a hard drive or something. The value varies with time and context, and the best we ever get for a virus is a vague idea of relative infectiousness. Comparing virus X to virus Y based on R0 alone is largely a fool's errand, particularly for a virus that hasn't been in a human in decades. Smallpox has rather infamously spread between stories of a building from a closed laboratory (this is disputed, but plausible), so I wouldn't be so quick to characterize it as requiring "close and extended contact": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_... > you walk by a group of people in the park and they’re infected This has never been documented in the entire history of SARS-CoV2. For that matter, there have been almost no documented outdoor infections, in any context. These hysterical claims need to be put down.
- lazide 5y ago
  Ah, your data is well out of date. This isn’t hysteria, and I don’t think hysteria is called for. If smallpox had these numbers, well, that is a different story. But smallpox has had likely thousands of years to evolve higher infectivity, and seems to have reached a local maxima that isn’t there. Covid still has time to explore options. Measured R0 in New York for COVID was 6.4 [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v...] for the original strain before lockdown and masking. Those appear to have greatly reduced the basic replication rate to around .9-1.3 or so shortly afterwards. As they are very severe countermeasures, it’s disingenuous to use the reduced replication rate ‘raw’ as no one is going to be doing them ‘naturally’. The delta variant (B.1.617.2), now dominant in California and elsewhere, is approximately 2x more infectious than that original variant from the data I’ve found, which is limited [easiest thing I could fine here was https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/07/994710459/is-the-variant-from-india-the-most-contagious-coronavirus-mutant-on-the-planet https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/07/9947104...]. That would put it (in a ‘natural’ setting) at R0 being roughly 12-13. Measles is estimated to have a R0 of 12-18. [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28757186/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28757186/] Outdoor infection IS less likely - this study of infected construction workers show only 1.4% of their outdoor only co-workers were infected by infected workers, where 43% of people they lived with and 26% of people they had indoor contact with while working got infected. There are many documented cases of outdoor infections, and even more where no known source could be found and all indoor or other sources were ruled out. New variants driving up infectivity will of course drive this number up over time if infections are allowed to spread (albeit hopefully vaccination can cut it off at the knees). What does this mean? Without a vigorous public health response, Covid will continue to spread. It may continue to spread despite a very rigorous response from authorities because the body count is going to be low enough that many people just won’t care. If we get an unfortunate deadlier variant, then maybe that will change. But one thing appears sure - we’re past the point (if there ever was one) where there is anything easy or pleasant that is going to happen.
  - timr 5y ago
    > Ah, your data is well out of date. Smallpox has been eradicated since the 1970s. There is no other data, and the data that exists doesn't support your assertion. A paper from 2001 is up to date. Citing point estimates for SARS-CoV2 is not a rebuttal; there are many such estimates, and as I said, they're specific to time and place. The best you can do is compare distributions and look for general trends. > The delta variant (B.1.617.2), now dominant in California and elsewhere, is approximately 2x more infectious than that original variant from the data I’ve found...That would put it (in a ‘natural’ setting) at R0 being roughly 12-13 You're just making things up. You can't take an old estimate, multiply it by some arbitrary factor, and draw a conclusion from it.

jayflux 5y ago

> A smallpox pandemic would be orders of magnitude more deadly than COVID Edit: fair enough there’s no vaccinations for smallpox anymore. But countries do still buy stockpiles

jinpa_zangpo 5y ago
Childhood vaccinations against smallpox in the US stopped in 1971, 50 years ago. https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article-abstract/49/4/489/47117/THE-END-OF-ROUTINE-SMALLPOX-VACCINATION-IN-THE https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article-abstract/49/...
joshuaissac 5y ago
> People still get vaccinated against smallpox when they’re young No, they don't. I do not think there is even a single country that routinely vaccinates children against smallpox.
valarauko 5y ago
I don't think universal smallpox vaccination for infants is the case in any country now, at least since the 1980's.
max-ibel 5y ago
No they don't, at least in the US. Older people may still be vaccinated in their youth (I guess when born before 1980s).
- u801e 5y ago
  They stopped vaccinating against smallpox in 1972[1]. It was administered around 12 months of age before then. So anyone in the US born in 1972 or later is most likely unvaccinated. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/index.html [2] https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-details/smallpox-vaccine https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-cent...
bee_rider 5y ago

kupiakos 5y ago

COVID is not comparable to the flu. It's 3-20x as deadly depending on a variety of factors. Smallpox would still be significantly more deadly than COVID individually, but I'd bet people would take lockdowns much more seriously for smallpox than they did for COVID, preventing a pandemic and resulting in fewer deaths overall. Especially because people believe falsehoods like "COVID is comparable to the flu" because it downplays the risk.

nickthemagicman 5y ago
30ish% fatality rate of small pox. I think Black Plague was like 60% fatality rate and killed so many people that it's theorized it paved the way for the enlightenment by disrupting entrenched economic stratification. Covid is essentially the flu compared to a real historical pandemic. There were not any 'black plague' deniers.
schrodinger 5y ago
Give the benefit of the doubt. It’s certainly deadlier but still comparable in the scheme of things relative to a 30% death rate virus. I’m vaxxed and have a booster, mask up, and def not a denier but it’s true that the death rate of covid is fairly low for most folks.
- gfodor 5y ago
  You’re right. People are triggered by the comparison.
- hunterb123 5y ago
  The amount of apologizing and disclaiming in this thread is sad. You shouldn't have to announce your medical history to compare fatality rates of a virus.
chasil 5y ago
This is a good history on the effects and changing forms of treatment. "The case-fatality rate varied from 20% to 60% and left most survivors with disfiguring scars. The case-fatality rate in infants was even higher, approaching 80% in London and 98% in Berlin during the late 1800s." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1200696/

bastardoperator 5y ago

This is certifably false when it comes to covid and the flu: according to Johns Hopkins University, about 3.1 million people around the world had died of COVID-19 as of April 26, 2021. The flu, meanwhile, kills between 290,000 to 650,000 people every year worldwide, according to the World Health Organization.

gfodor 5y ago
A 5x difference largely skewed towards the elderly and obese fits the definition of “comparable”, but ofc this is assumed to be a downplaying tactic.
- himinlomax 5y ago
  The flu also kills mostly the elderly and sick. In fact I get the impression that it does so more than Covid does.
- bastardoperator 5y ago
  It is when you look at the flu data. You think the flu kills more people on average? It doesn't, and most people that die from the flu are also elderly or have pre-existing conditions.
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    Your comment is going to age like skim milk. Covid killed so many people because it was novel. It'll likely decline year over year as the population either develops antibodies or dies (of covid or natural causes).
    - bastardoperator 5y ago
      "likely" That doesn't sound very confident...
      - spurgu 5y ago

paxys 5y ago

We know what smallpox is, how it spreads, how to slow it down/prevent it, and most importantly we will have a vaccine for it in every pharmacy well before it breaks out the way covid did. The two are not at all comparable.

bluGill 5y ago
I don't think we can grow our smallpox vaccine stockpile that fast. We know how to make them and have the ability, but getting production to scale will take a fair amount of time.
- heavyset_go 5y ago
  This was one of the bottlenecks that COVID vaccines faced, as well. Researchers made COVID vaccines relatively quickly, and it took a relatively long time for mass production to ramp up.
  - bluGill 5y ago
    True, but with mRNA it is a lot easier to pivot. If there by chance had been a flu vaccine using mRNA we would have been able to switch to COVID much faster. Most vaccine technologies don't pivot that fast.
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  Smallpox vaccine can be grown in people - look at how the original vaccination campaigns got theirs across the ocean before there was refrigeration. If there was a smallpox outbreak the country the country would go to a sudden stop and everyone would race to be vaccinated, it is that deadly. Unfortunately, Covid is in that uncanny valley where too many people do not care until it hits them personally. That's why we are all fucked.
  - spurgu 5y ago
    "we are all fucked" seems like a rather exaggerated conclusion. It's like you're excluding how many people there are who are not bothered even when it hits them personally.

topkai22 5y ago

Smallpox is roughly as contagious as SARS-Cov2 Delta and therefore more transmossible than the original variant. However those numbers are the unmitigated numbers. Public health and other authority figures have some advantages in fighting smallpox versus SARS-Cov2. IIRC, smallpox is not infectious until the "pox" are visible on the body, greatly improving ability to screen for the disease and the vaccine traditional used creates a small but visible scar, again aiding screening. The world also maintains a significant (300M doses vaccine stockpile in the US as well as other countries) with already approved vaccines that can begin manufacturering immediately. Finally, smallpox is so deadly and obviously horrific that it "should" help public health officials get past vaccine and other mitigation "hesitantcy". A smallpox pandemic would truly be devastating and much worse then Covid19, but thankful there is reason to believe outbreaks could be controlled before pandemic status was reached. One of my biggest worries coming out of Covid19 is how epidemiological public health has become tied up in political identity and that the next pandemic will see significant portions of the population actively resisting outbreak control measures.

lazide 5y ago
Based on what I’ve been able to find, Delta would have a ‘raw’ (without extensive countermeasures) R0 of 12-13 (original Covid was measured in NYC pre-masking and lockdowns at 6.4). Do you have cites for the other numbers you have? Totally agree on severity (or lack thereof) being why it is spreading and thriving. Also the high asymptomatic spread helps too. You can’t get the consistent, strong response in taking countermeasures you’d get from something more visibly horrific like Ebola. Though there have been many cases in Africa of someone sneaking in to loot a ‘dead’ village or graveyard and starting a new outbreak when they get home. So apparently even almost certainly dying a horrible death while bleeding from every opening isn’t enough to get everyone to take it seriously.
- topkai22 5y ago
  A December 2020 journal article I was using (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7751056/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7751056/) gave an r0 range of the original of 1.5-6.68 across various studies. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34369565/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34369565/ puts Delta at about 5.08 and the origin strain at around 2.79. There is a lot of range in numbers I've seen, but the proportion is generally agreed to be about 2X for Delta to the origin strain. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399 has smallpox between 3.5 to 6, so closer to Delta than the origin strain. I didn't look into these numbers to deeply as they seemed to be under active debate and my point was that smallpox is in the range of Delta, not the specific number.

eunos 5y ago

With anti vaxx arguably has more influence and voice due to social media, that'd be disaster.