81 ms·

Tesla Q3 2021 Earnings

136 points by marc__1 5y ago

helen___keller 5y ago
I bought a car early this year and for a few reasons couldn’t consider a full EV so I ended up with a Prius prime. I’m hoping this car lasts maybe a decade. I have my eyes on Tesla now but I do wonder if it will be just as appealing in 10 years
- speedgoose 5y ago
  I assume you didn't know that Toyota is lobbying against EVs.
  - zumu 5y ago
    That is a very cynical take. They are lobbying to for incentives to include HEV and Hybrid vehicles, not just BEV. https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/E2EA0E4F-BAD9-452D-99CC-35BC204DE6F0 https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/E2EA0E4F-BAD9-4...
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
      Multiple studies have shown that PHEV are worst to the environment that ICE. In real conditions. Toyota is advertising HEV as "self-charging" EV, that's cynicism.
      - helen___keller 5y ago
        > Multiple studies have shown that PHEV are worst to the environment that ICE. In real conditions. No, studies have shown PHEV emissions lifetime emissions are higher than expected, offering less reduction from an ICE than previously expected[0], and that some PHEVs emit more than their official sources suggest[1]. But you can use common sense here: If you take comparable cars with/without a plug-in option (e.g. prius vs prius prime), then the plug-in option emits less CO2 if you charge it frequently enough to offset (a) the added weight of the battery, and (b) whatever emissions were involved in producing the battery. Obviously, if you don't charge your PHEV, it's not any better than an ordinary ICE HEV. > Toyota is advertising HEV as "self-charging" EV This should be illegal. HEV is just an ICE with better gas mileage. [0] https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54170207 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54170207 [1] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1130586_report-plug-in-hybrids-are-polluting-more-than-claimed https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1130586_report-plug-in-...
        zumu 5y ago
        > HEV is just an ICE with better gas mileage. I don't see how this is true as HEV _are_ electric vehicles powered by a fuel cell. Please expound on how this equates to an ICE. EDIT: My parent comment was misleading perhaps, because I used the non-standard abbreviation HEV (Hydrogen Electric Vehicle) as opposed to the more conventional FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle).
        helen___keller 5y ago
        oh okay I thought HEV was hybrid EV, meaning an ordinary hybrid. my bad on misunderstanding
      - zumu 5y ago
        Would love to see the sources if you have them handy.
    - helen___keller 5y ago
      On that note, the only reason I bought a plug-in prius prime, as opposed to the ordinary prius, is because incentives brought it down to a comparable price point. As it happens, when I was purchasing I was a renter with no stable charging situation. I was buying a car so I could go to open houses and shop for a condo/house. I ended up buying a condo with a small driveway (for which I installed an EVSE), but most of the units in the city don't even have that possibility. Hence, originally I had no intention of buying the plug-in model. I only got it because it was roughly the same price after incentives, and I'm thankful it worked out this way because now I charge it regularly and my day-to-day in-city trips are all electric.
  - helen___keller 5y ago
    If you must know, neither “lobbying position” nor “social media shitstorms” were on my spreadsheet when I was in the decision making process and comparing features
alexdrue 5y ago
Also, Bitcoin is probably one of the profitable ventures of Elon Musk. It's just a matter of time that Tesla will try to spread throughout different countries.
TrainedMonkey 5y ago
> $1.6B GAAP net income; $2.1B non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC1) in Q3 SBC = stock based compensation, this translates to Tesla paying $500m in stock compensation in Q3 alone. Not sure how other companies compare, but this sounds like a lot.
- novok 5y ago
  Have 40k staff and that is only $12.5k per person.
adamqureshi 5y ago
The market will be divided. You will have he Direct to consumer (DTC) native EV carmakers taking a software eating the world approach vs the legacy car makers ( franchise dealer model is 100 years old ) this is a classic case of "software IS eating the world". There WILL be blood in the water and not all legacy carmakers will survive the Tsunami. This is exactly what happ with the Apple iphone. Do you see anyone walking around with a nokia, ericsson / motorola / blackeberry? the game in the auto market is changing and it changing fast. The WHOLE ecosystem ( tooling for I.C.E is gonna die out ) Good lucky! and may the best man win. -2cent.
malwarebytess 5y ago
It's so strange to me how emotional the arguments are around Tesla. Some people seem angry at Tesla's success. Really strange. Anyone remember TSLAQ? lol
- mlindner 5y ago
  > Anyone remember TSLAQ? They're still around. In fact one of the TSLAQ people just got hired by Biden as an advisor to the NHTSA. (A woman hat has cussed out Tesla on several occasions and threatened physical violence on Elon Musk.)
martythemaniak 5y ago
They're firing on all cylinders.
- _2d30 5y ago
  I wonder if Tesla would object to combustion metaphors. Perhaps they are powering on all rotors?
  - dd36 5y ago
    They’re charging at full speed.
  - agumonkey 5y ago
    They're approaching zero reluctance
    - iab 5y ago
      I feel there is an impedance joke in there somewhere, but I lack the EE background to make it
      - agumonkey 5y ago
        If there is then it's by luck. EE knowledge stops at naive DC circuits.
- alxtye 5y ago
  Full steam ahead.
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  Spinning on all magnets
bpodgursky 5y ago
I wonder if there are any Tesla shorts left at this point.
- kaesar14 5y ago
  I'm still a bear on the valuation as it is. You can believe the company will be successful and still think it's grossly overvalued.
  - skohan 5y ago
    I think Tesla will be successful, but the current valuation seems to assume that every IC car on the road will be replaced by a Tesla in the next 10 years. I think Ford and Toyota are going to figure out how to be tesla a lot sooner than Tesla is going to figure out how to be Ford and Toyota.
    - kaesar14 5y ago
      The math barely works out even if they were to sell half the new cars sold every year. Tesla bulls are insane.
      - panick21_ 5y ago
        I simply believe in their continued innovation. They have great strategy their current strategy makes them dominate in a number of industries that are all gone grow massively. And they have consistently made the right decisions. People on HN might not like their approach to development of Self-Driving but they have invested a huge amount in deep neural nets and all the infrastructure around, including their own chips. They might well be able to sell access to that chip for example. Tesla is deep into batteries already and is building a huge team including research and vertically integration into the machines, mining, precurser production and so on. That expertise can eventually be used in a number of ways. I believe Tesla in a few years will seriously go after electric flight. I believe they have the talent to pull that off, maybe in cooperation with SpaceX. Its the logical next step. They have one of the world leading materials development departments as well, shared with SpaceX. They have the electronics, software talent and manufacturing to go into many other industries as well. I simply believe in their execution and strategy in the long term. People said they were crazy to make their own cars, they should just go to a contract manufacturer. But then they wouldn't have 30% margin right now. This kind of story will repeat itself.
yaacov 5y ago
With almost half their manufacturing in China, I wonder how they’re thinking about geopolitical risks right now.
- londons_explore 5y ago
  Is there any kind of insurance/hedging you can do against this?
  - rightbyte 5y ago
    Build factories outside of China?
    - londons_explore 5y ago
      That increases your exposure if many of your customers are IN China.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  How? By completing much larger manufacturing plants in Europe and Texas for end of year 2021, I guess. And making their own battery cells in each plant. And converting the Tilburg assembly line into another stationary energy storage factory. And researching locations for a few other new plants in 2023 as per Elon. And opening negotiations with India (as per Reuters, today). Sounds solid to me.
- Factorium 5y ago
  The chief political risks are from the USA, not China: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/19/president-bidens-pick-for-an-nhtsa-safety-advisor-raises-concerns-about-anti-tesla-bias/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/19/president-bidens-pick-f... https://electrek.co/2021/09/29/elon-musk-calls-out-biden-controlled-by-unions-after-tesla-snubbed-ev-summit/ https://electrek.co/2021/09/29/elon-musk-calls-out-biden-con...
  - systemvoltage 5y ago
psKama 5y ago
"bitcoin related impairment of 51M dollars" Does that mean they sold all of them at a loss of 51M?
- arcticbull 5y ago
  No, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the US are booked as indefinitely lived intangibles. That means that if the asset falls below their most recently booked price at any point in the quarter, they are required to book an impairment charge in the amount of the drop. If it goes up, they cannot book the profit until they sell.
  - graeme 5y ago
    Yup. In my view not super meaningful for the co’s holding bitcoin. In, say, Microstrategy’s case, the market has entirely ignored any impairment announcements. This has been sensible I think. (The market also has Microstrategy well overvalued compared to its holdings, but that’s another matter)
    - qeternity 5y ago
      > (The market also has Microstrategy well overvalued compared to its holdings, but that’s another matter) That was the case and there was a great spread trade for anyone who had the stomach for it. But currently MSTR is valued less than the value of its BTC, which implies a negative value for their legacy business.
      - Traster 5y ago
        I also looked into this at one point, and MSTR value was so incredibly correlated with the spot price of BTC that it makes sense their results didn't imapct value - everyone knows their value is entirely BTC and are trading it as a bitcoin proxy. They don't need some earnings report. Although I wouold guess either a big buy or big sell reported in their reports would crash their price.
      - graeme 5y ago
verdverm 5y ago
Est $1.585 EPS Act $1.86 EPS Notably the carbon credits have decreased in contribution
m00dy 5y ago
Can anyone explain this ? > Bitcoin-related impairment of $51M
- kinghajj 5y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28936340 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28936340 > No, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the US are booked as indefinitely lived intangibles. > That means that if the asset falls below their most recently booked price at any point in the quarter, they are required to book an impairment charge in the amount of the drop. If it goes up, they cannot book the profit until they sell.
- matco11 5y ago
  It means that they looked at the price of Bitcoin and saw that, if they had sold at that price, they would have lost $51mm. This does not mean that they sold the Bitcoins, but that they had to set aside a reserve of money for a potential future loss on their Bitcoins. This has nothing to do with their propensity to sell their Bitcoins or their expectations on the price of Bitcoins. Instead, it has to do with the way accounting principles work and the need to mark-to-market financial investments.
  - m00dy 5y ago
    thanks.
purple_ferret 5y ago
>Texas: Model Y - Construction >TBD: Cybertruck - In development I thought Cybertruck was supposed to be built in Texas? > We are making progress on the industrialization of Cybertruck, which is currently planned for Austin production subsequent to Model Y. What's that mean? Cybertruck coming out in the 2030s?
- skellera 5y ago
  They expect the Model Y to be the best selling EV in the world within a few years. They are fully focused on getting Texas set up for that. Cybertruck will probably come around 2023, maybe start production at the end of 2022 if everything went perfect.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  > What's that mean? Cybertruck coming out in the 2030s? Why would you assume that? Model Y production is literally already in pre-production phase and will be scaling all next year. Cybertruck will be 6M-1Y behind in Austin. They will need massive battery capacity for Cybertruck in addition to 500K Model Y. This is what people don't understand. They are planning 500K Model Y and 500K Cybertrucks, that needs more battery then currently is being produced in Nevada. In addition to the other supply chain, chips and battery is required to be available to seriously start Cybertruck. That is why Austin will include a dedicated battery factory and even a dedicated cathode manufacturing plant.
- martythemaniak 5y ago
  The best info has it being introduced in small numbers in the latter half of next year and ramping up into 2023.
crancher 5y ago
From page nine: Services and Other - Insurance In Q3, we rolled out our “Safety Score” functionality, which will also be used for our telematics insurance product. We actively monitor braking, turning, tailgating (unsafe following), forward collision warnings and forced autopilot disengagements in order to predict the probability of a collision. This system will continue to be fine- tuned as we receive more data. We also launched our telematics insurance product in our first state – Texas – in early October. We believe our insurance premiums will be able to more accurately reflect chances of a collision than any other insurance product on the market. Additionally, we will proactively communicate to the user what driving adjustments need to be made to decrease probability of a collision.
- crancher 5y ago
  The holy grail of insurance: each person’s individual risk behavior monitored by AI.
  - missedthecue 5y ago
    Progressive patented this in 1998 https://patents.google.com/patent/US5797134A/en https://patents.google.com/patent/US5797134A/en
  - t0mas88 5y ago
    The worst nightmare of consumer privacy: A car that monitors your every move.
    - gervwyk 5y ago
      My wife activated this on her insurance. Got an email last week saying that she is in the top 5% of “worst drivers”. Which was both scary and funny at the same time. We investigated why they deduct so much points for her driving, and the majority of the points was conducted for her being on het phone while driving. Then we realized that we drive around with her car most often and she is on the the phone while I drive.. These models has it’s problems but they are getting better - it’s just so easy to make wrong assumptions from ML models which only include a subset of variables.
mensetmanusman 5y ago
Page 6 lists rate of supercharger and connector growth. So interesting that this is pointed out at a high level.
tootie 5y ago
It's unbelievable that the established auto makers are just falling further and further behind on EVs while Tesla is opening the market wider and wider.
- marticode 5y ago
  This is completely unsubstantiated. In 2020, Tesla had about 1/4 of the EV market and 1/6 if you count plug-in hybrids. This is big but not overwhelming considering they were the first to market with a serious product. I have not seen any recent market share for 2021 but given onslaught of new products from every legacy car maker, I see no reason to believe they are falling behind. If anything, they are catching up. https://insideevs.com/news/486325/world-top-ev-automotive-groups-2020/ https://insideevs.com/news/486325/world-top-ev-automotive-gr...
- poorjohnmacafee 5y ago
  Even so it seems the administration pretends they don't exist [1] or even wants to take their marketshare [2]. The established automakers have a cozier relationship with the established politicians I guess. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/biden-snubs-non-union-ev-makers-at-event-promoting-evs https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/biden-snu... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/tesla-toyota-and-honda-criticize-4500-tax-credit-for-union-made-evs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/tesla-toyota-and-honda-criti...
  - jonny_eh 5y ago
    > The established automakers You misspelled "unions".
- mym1990 5y ago
  Is it though? Tesla had a vision for EVs from the very beginning and most of the industry really didn't believe Tesla would see the light at the end of the tunnel, so they put off becoming competitors. Now Tesla is hitting an incredible stride and the rest of the car manufacturers are scrambling to put something together.
nullc 5y ago
So does that $1.6B include the roughly $1bn their 42,000 Bitcoin has gone up in value this quarter?
- DarmokJalad1701 5y ago
  No. They can only count it if they sell it. They actually had to take a $50M "impairment" hit on their bottom-line since the price of BTC dropped below their cost basis again this quarter.
  - TameAntelope 5y ago
    Taking an "impairment hit" is a great way to lower performance a smidge so as to not let Wall St. run away with its Q4 projections. I'm full-blown conspiratorial about how Tesla uses BTC to manipulate its financial reports. I don't think what they're doing is illegal or even all that innovative, other than to use BTC and not some other thing to do this.
    - panick21_ 5y ago
      If you think that tiny amount of bitcoin is relevant in the Tesla financial story you are not paying attention.
      - TameAntelope 5y ago
        I don't think you know how specific earnings guidances are...
    - mehrdada 5y ago
      Have you looked at Tesla delivery queue wait times recently? Not need to spin up controversies when the market demand is clear and explains the tailwind. They have been leveraging the demand to increase ASP both by increasing prices and shifting to a more profitable mix (Need the car sooner? Get the higher margin model!)
      - 5y ago
svara 5y ago
Curious to hear what the optimistic story to justify the current incredible valuation is. I mean, they seem to be doing very well now, but their market cap is now roughly equal to all other car makers combined. [0] That's just confusing to me. Are people actually betting on them ultimately turning into the one modern energy company? The one battery company? [0] https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/ https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers...
- WORMS_EAT_WORMS 5y ago
  It's called speculation. You're asking for an explanation to the collective market forces driving this. If anyone here knew a fully accurate reason, they'd be a billionaire investor.
- btian 5y ago
  It's the same optimistic story when I invested at $8 a share. The company will grow. People will take what the company makes in EPS today and assume it will stay there forever. So in 2012, people created Tesla death watch, bankruptcy tracker etc. In 2021 people wonder why others will wait 100 years to get their money back.
  - paulpauper 5y ago
    Tesla has been in my portfolio for a long time as well. NO plan to sell. The media has been saying to sell since 2013, goes to show what they know, which is not much.
    - adam_arthur 5y ago
      Yeah, if you make money on a trade it means you were right about the business. The investors in Enron were right too, until it went bankrupt. Nothing is proven until the end. I do think Tesla has a large advantage in many respects, and a visionary leader is difficult for more legacy companies to overcome. I can think of many ways they can expand their margins well beyond traditional auto. But share price does not speak to any long term truth. Just a snapshot of public expectations of the truth.
paulpauper 5y ago
I guess it goes to show how Tesla's stock surge in 2020, which the media called irrational or a bubble, was not so irrational after all.
- anonporridge 5y ago
  Na. The current valuation is still pretty irrational.
  - paulpauper 5y ago
    that is what is expected for growth stocks .amazon has been overvalued forever too. Tesla went from losing billions to making billions. That is a huge comeback and reflected in the share price.
aluminum96 5y ago
Multiple commenters have observed that Tesla faces increasing competition from Ford, Porsche, and others. But I don't think it's obvious at all that competitors can catch up: * Autopilot. Safe or not, autopilot is very convenient and super permissive, and owners seem to love it. * Superchargers. Third party charger maintenance is an unsolved problem, and CCS DC fast chargers are often broken, where they exist at all. It's truly awful. Maybe the federal government will bail out Ford here with a charging infrastructure program... or maybe not. * Status symbol. There's a reason Tesla has replaced Cadillac as a symbol of luxury in pop culture. * The Model 3/Y itself is a smooth, luxurious and fast ride. Don't discount the car's ability to compete on the traditional merits. (Edit: this is my opinion, based on comparing a Model 3 to a 3 series as well as various Nissan cars. YMMV; it's subjective.)
- cavisne 5y ago
  > Maybe the federal government will bail out Ford here with a charging infrastructure program Even if they did I don't think it would help. DC chargers are fundamentally a construction project. Tesla Supercharger locations often get delayed for months/years as they hit roadblocks like permits, disputes with landowners, shortages. So it's still going to be years before CCS chargers match the footprint. If/when Tesla opens up their network it could help a lot though.
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    The number of CCS plugs in North America is currently at 70% of the number of Tesla plugs: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html CCS plugs will overtake Tesla plugs eventually. Tesla putting CCS plugs on their chargers will make it happen faster.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  > There's a reason Tesla has replaced Cadillac as a symbol of luxury in pop culture. Cadillac hasn't been the symbol of luxury in pop culture for a few decades now. Lexus and the German up brands (BMW, Mercedes, Audi if not in the USA) are much more pervasive.
user3939382 5y ago
After many years of excitement over electric cars I finally got to ride in a Tesla. The suspension was horrible and made me sick, I felt every bump. Unless they make a dramatic change I’d never buy one.
- modeless 5y ago
  There are persistent rumors that Model Y will get air suspension eventually. Model S and X already have it and Cybertruck will too.
- speedgoose 5y ago
  A sporty car has sporty suspensions. I agree you feel every bump on the model 3. You can drive a model X with its air suspensions in boat mode (or whatever it's called) and it's another story.
- supperburg 5y ago
  Were you taking a test drive in Uganda? I test drove a P100 years ago and it was awesome.

136 points by marc__1 5y ago

I bought a car early this year and for a few reasons couldn’t consider a full EV so I ended up with a Prius prime. I’m hoping this car lasts maybe a decade. I have my eyes on Tesla now but I do wonder if it will be just as appealing in 10 years

speedgoose 5y ago
I assume you didn't know that Toyota is lobbying against EVs.
- zumu 5y ago
  That is a very cynical take. They are lobbying to for incentives to include HEV and Hybrid vehicles, not just BEV. https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/E2EA0E4F-BAD9-452D-99CC-35BC204DE6F0 https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/E2EA0E4F-BAD9-4...
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    Multiple studies have shown that PHEV are worst to the environment that ICE. In real conditions. Toyota is advertising HEV as "self-charging" EV, that's cynicism.
    - helen___keller 5y ago
      > Multiple studies have shown that PHEV are worst to the environment that ICE. In real conditions. No, studies have shown PHEV emissions lifetime emissions are higher than expected, offering less reduction from an ICE than previously expected[0], and that some PHEVs emit more than their official sources suggest[1]. But you can use common sense here: If you take comparable cars with/without a plug-in option (e.g. prius vs prius prime), then the plug-in option emits less CO2 if you charge it frequently enough to offset (a) the added weight of the battery, and (b) whatever emissions were involved in producing the battery. Obviously, if you don't charge your PHEV, it's not any better than an ordinary ICE HEV. > Toyota is advertising HEV as "self-charging" EV This should be illegal. HEV is just an ICE with better gas mileage. [0] https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54170207 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54170207 [1] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1130586_report-plug-in-hybrids-are-polluting-more-than-claimed https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1130586_report-plug-in-...
      - zumu 5y ago
        > HEV is just an ICE with better gas mileage. I don't see how this is true as HEV _are_ electric vehicles powered by a fuel cell. Please expound on how this equates to an ICE. EDIT: My parent comment was misleading perhaps, because I used the non-standard abbreviation HEV (Hydrogen Electric Vehicle) as opposed to the more conventional FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle).
        helen___keller 5y ago
        oh okay I thought HEV was hybrid EV, meaning an ordinary hybrid. my bad on misunderstanding
    - zumu 5y ago
      Would love to see the sources if you have them handy.
  - helen___keller 5y ago
    On that note, the only reason I bought a plug-in prius prime, as opposed to the ordinary prius, is because incentives brought it down to a comparable price point. As it happens, when I was purchasing I was a renter with no stable charging situation. I was buying a car so I could go to open houses and shop for a condo/house. I ended up buying a condo with a small driveway (for which I installed an EVSE), but most of the units in the city don't even have that possibility. Hence, originally I had no intention of buying the plug-in model. I only got it because it was roughly the same price after incentives, and I'm thankful it worked out this way because now I charge it regularly and my day-to-day in-city trips are all electric.
- helen___keller 5y ago
  If you must know, neither “lobbying position” nor “social media shitstorms” were on my spreadsheet when I was in the decision making process and comparing features

alexdrue 5y ago

Also, Bitcoin is probably one of the profitable ventures of Elon Musk. It's just a matter of time that Tesla will try to spread throughout different countries.

TrainedMonkey 5y ago

> $1.6B GAAP net income; $2.1B non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC1) in Q3 SBC = stock based compensation, this translates to Tesla paying $500m in stock compensation in Q3 alone. Not sure how other companies compare, but this sounds like a lot.

novok 5y ago
Have 40k staff and that is only $12.5k per person.

adamqureshi 5y ago

The market will be divided. You will have he Direct to consumer (DTC) native EV carmakers taking a software eating the world approach vs the legacy car makers ( franchise dealer model is 100 years old ) this is a classic case of "software IS eating the world". There WILL be blood in the water and not all legacy carmakers will survive the Tsunami. This is exactly what happ with the Apple iphone. Do you see anyone walking around with a nokia, ericsson / motorola / blackeberry? the game in the auto market is changing and it changing fast. The WHOLE ecosystem ( tooling for I.C.E is gonna die out ) Good lucky! and may the best man win. -2cent.

malwarebytess 5y ago

It's so strange to me how emotional the arguments are around Tesla. Some people seem angry at Tesla's success. Really strange. Anyone remember TSLAQ? lol

mlindner 5y ago
> Anyone remember TSLAQ? They're still around. In fact one of the TSLAQ people just got hired by Biden as an advisor to the NHTSA. (A woman hat has cussed out Tesla on several occasions and threatened physical violence on Elon Musk.)

martythemaniak 5y ago

They're firing on all cylinders.

_2d30 5y ago
I wonder if Tesla would object to combustion metaphors. Perhaps they are powering on all rotors?
- dd36 5y ago
  They’re charging at full speed.
- agumonkey 5y ago
  They're approaching zero reluctance
  - iab 5y ago
    I feel there is an impedance joke in there somewhere, but I lack the EE background to make it
    - agumonkey 5y ago
      If there is then it's by luck. EE knowledge stops at naive DC circuits.
alxtye 5y ago
Full steam ahead.
bpodgursky 5y ago
Spinning on all magnets

bpodgursky 5y ago

I wonder if there are any Tesla shorts left at this point.

kaesar14 5y ago
I'm still a bear on the valuation as it is. You can believe the company will be successful and still think it's grossly overvalued.
- skohan 5y ago
  I think Tesla will be successful, but the current valuation seems to assume that every IC car on the road will be replaced by a Tesla in the next 10 years. I think Ford and Toyota are going to figure out how to be tesla a lot sooner than Tesla is going to figure out how to be Ford and Toyota.
  - kaesar14 5y ago
    The math barely works out even if they were to sell half the new cars sold every year. Tesla bulls are insane.
    - panick21_ 5y ago
      I simply believe in their continued innovation. They have great strategy their current strategy makes them dominate in a number of industries that are all gone grow massively. And they have consistently made the right decisions. People on HN might not like their approach to development of Self-Driving but they have invested a huge amount in deep neural nets and all the infrastructure around, including their own chips. They might well be able to sell access to that chip for example. Tesla is deep into batteries already and is building a huge team including research and vertically integration into the machines, mining, precurser production and so on. That expertise can eventually be used in a number of ways. I believe Tesla in a few years will seriously go after electric flight. I believe they have the talent to pull that off, maybe in cooperation with SpaceX. Its the logical next step. They have one of the world leading materials development departments as well, shared with SpaceX. They have the electronics, software talent and manufacturing to go into many other industries as well. I simply believe in their execution and strategy in the long term. People said they were crazy to make their own cars, they should just go to a contract manufacturer. But then they wouldn't have 30% margin right now. This kind of story will repeat itself.

yaacov 5y ago

With almost half their manufacturing in China, I wonder how they’re thinking about geopolitical risks right now.

londons_explore 5y ago
Is there any kind of insurance/hedging you can do against this?
- rightbyte 5y ago
  Build factories outside of China?
  - londons_explore 5y ago
    That increases your exposure if many of your customers are IN China.
rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
How? By completing much larger manufacturing plants in Europe and Texas for end of year 2021, I guess. And making their own battery cells in each plant. And converting the Tilburg assembly line into another stationary energy storage factory. And researching locations for a few other new plants in 2023 as per Elon. And opening negotiations with India (as per Reuters, today). Sounds solid to me.
Factorium 5y ago
The chief political risks are from the USA, not China: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/19/president-bidens-pick-for-an-nhtsa-safety-advisor-raises-concerns-about-anti-tesla-bias/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/19/president-bidens-pick-f... https://electrek.co/2021/09/29/elon-musk-calls-out-biden-controlled-by-unions-after-tesla-snubbed-ev-summit/ https://electrek.co/2021/09/29/elon-musk-calls-out-biden-con...
- systemvoltage 5y ago

psKama 5y ago

"bitcoin related impairment of 51M dollars" Does that mean they sold all of them at a loss of 51M?

arcticbull 5y ago
No, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the US are booked as indefinitely lived intangibles. That means that if the asset falls below their most recently booked price at any point in the quarter, they are required to book an impairment charge in the amount of the drop. If it goes up, they cannot book the profit until they sell.
- graeme 5y ago
  Yup. In my view not super meaningful for the co’s holding bitcoin. In, say, Microstrategy’s case, the market has entirely ignored any impairment announcements. This has been sensible I think. (The market also has Microstrategy well overvalued compared to its holdings, but that’s another matter)
  - qeternity 5y ago
    > (The market also has Microstrategy well overvalued compared to its holdings, but that’s another matter) That was the case and there was a great spread trade for anyone who had the stomach for it. But currently MSTR is valued less than the value of its BTC, which implies a negative value for their legacy business.
    - Traster 5y ago
      I also looked into this at one point, and MSTR value was so incredibly correlated with the spot price of BTC that it makes sense their results didn't imapct value - everyone knows their value is entirely BTC and are trading it as a bitcoin proxy. They don't need some earnings report. Although I wouold guess either a big buy or big sell reported in their reports would crash their price.
    - graeme 5y ago

verdverm 5y ago

Est $1.585 EPS Act $1.86 EPS Notably the carbon credits have decreased in contribution

m00dy 5y ago

Can anyone explain this ? > Bitcoin-related impairment of $51M

kinghajj 5y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28936340 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28936340 > No, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the US are booked as indefinitely lived intangibles. > That means that if the asset falls below their most recently booked price at any point in the quarter, they are required to book an impairment charge in the amount of the drop. If it goes up, they cannot book the profit until they sell.
matco11 5y ago
It means that they looked at the price of Bitcoin and saw that, if they had sold at that price, they would have lost $51mm. This does not mean that they sold the Bitcoins, but that they had to set aside a reserve of money for a potential future loss on their Bitcoins. This has nothing to do with their propensity to sell their Bitcoins or their expectations on the price of Bitcoins. Instead, it has to do with the way accounting principles work and the need to mark-to-market financial investments.
- m00dy 5y ago
  thanks.

purple_ferret 5y ago

>Texas: Model Y - Construction >TBD: Cybertruck - In development I thought Cybertruck was supposed to be built in Texas? > We are making progress on the industrialization of Cybertruck, which is currently planned for Austin production subsequent to Model Y. What's that mean? Cybertruck coming out in the 2030s?

skellera 5y ago
They expect the Model Y to be the best selling EV in the world within a few years. They are fully focused on getting Texas set up for that. Cybertruck will probably come around 2023, maybe start production at the end of 2022 if everything went perfect.
panick21_ 5y ago
> What's that mean? Cybertruck coming out in the 2030s? Why would you assume that? Model Y production is literally already in pre-production phase and will be scaling all next year. Cybertruck will be 6M-1Y behind in Austin. They will need massive battery capacity for Cybertruck in addition to 500K Model Y. This is what people don't understand. They are planning 500K Model Y and 500K Cybertrucks, that needs more battery then currently is being produced in Nevada. In addition to the other supply chain, chips and battery is required to be available to seriously start Cybertruck. That is why Austin will include a dedicated battery factory and even a dedicated cathode manufacturing plant.
martythemaniak 5y ago
The best info has it being introduced in small numbers in the latter half of next year and ramping up into 2023.

crancher 5y ago

From page nine: Services and Other - Insurance In Q3, we rolled out our “Safety Score” functionality, which will also be used for our telematics insurance product. We actively monitor braking, turning, tailgating (unsafe following), forward collision warnings and forced autopilot disengagements in order to predict the probability of a collision. This system will continue to be fine- tuned as we receive more data. We also launched our telematics insurance product in our first state – Texas – in early October. We believe our insurance premiums will be able to more accurately reflect chances of a collision than any other insurance product on the market. Additionally, we will proactively communicate to the user what driving adjustments need to be made to decrease probability of a collision.

crancher 5y ago
The holy grail of insurance: each person’s individual risk behavior monitored by AI.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  Progressive patented this in 1998 https://patents.google.com/patent/US5797134A/en https://patents.google.com/patent/US5797134A/en
- t0mas88 5y ago
  The worst nightmare of consumer privacy: A car that monitors your every move.
  - gervwyk 5y ago
    My wife activated this on her insurance. Got an email last week saying that she is in the top 5% of “worst drivers”. Which was both scary and funny at the same time. We investigated why they deduct so much points for her driving, and the majority of the points was conducted for her being on het phone while driving. Then we realized that we drive around with her car most often and she is on the the phone while I drive.. These models has it’s problems but they are getting better - it’s just so easy to make wrong assumptions from ML models which only include a subset of variables.

mensetmanusman 5y ago

Page 6 lists rate of supercharger and connector growth. So interesting that this is pointed out at a high level.

tootie 5y ago

It's unbelievable that the established auto makers are just falling further and further behind on EVs while Tesla is opening the market wider and wider.

marticode 5y ago
This is completely unsubstantiated. In 2020, Tesla had about 1/4 of the EV market and 1/6 if you count plug-in hybrids. This is big but not overwhelming considering they were the first to market with a serious product. I have not seen any recent market share for 2021 but given onslaught of new products from every legacy car maker, I see no reason to believe they are falling behind. If anything, they are catching up. https://insideevs.com/news/486325/world-top-ev-automotive-groups-2020/ https://insideevs.com/news/486325/world-top-ev-automotive-gr...
poorjohnmacafee 5y ago
Even so it seems the administration pretends they don't exist [1] or even wants to take their marketshare [2]. The established automakers have a cozier relationship with the established politicians I guess. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/biden-snubs-non-union-ev-makers-at-event-promoting-evs https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/biden-snu... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/tesla-toyota-and-honda-criticize-4500-tax-credit-for-union-made-evs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/tesla-toyota-and-honda-criti...
- jonny_eh 5y ago
  > The established automakers You misspelled "unions".
mym1990 5y ago
Is it though? Tesla had a vision for EVs from the very beginning and most of the industry really didn't believe Tesla would see the light at the end of the tunnel, so they put off becoming competitors. Now Tesla is hitting an incredible stride and the rest of the car manufacturers are scrambling to put something together.

nullc 5y ago

So does that $1.6B include the roughly $1bn their 42,000 Bitcoin has gone up in value this quarter?

DarmokJalad1701 5y ago
No. They can only count it if they sell it. They actually had to take a $50M "impairment" hit on their bottom-line since the price of BTC dropped below their cost basis again this quarter.
- TameAntelope 5y ago
  Taking an "impairment hit" is a great way to lower performance a smidge so as to not let Wall St. run away with its Q4 projections. I'm full-blown conspiratorial about how Tesla uses BTC to manipulate its financial reports. I don't think what they're doing is illegal or even all that innovative, other than to use BTC and not some other thing to do this.
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    If you think that tiny amount of bitcoin is relevant in the Tesla financial story you are not paying attention.
    - TameAntelope 5y ago
      I don't think you know how specific earnings guidances are...
  - mehrdada 5y ago
    Have you looked at Tesla delivery queue wait times recently? Not need to spin up controversies when the market demand is clear and explains the tailwind. They have been leveraging the demand to increase ASP both by increasing prices and shifting to a more profitable mix (Need the car sooner? Get the higher margin model!)
    - 5y ago

svara 5y ago

Curious to hear what the optimistic story to justify the current incredible valuation is. I mean, they seem to be doing very well now, but their market cap is now roughly equal to all other car makers combined. [0] That's just confusing to me. Are people actually betting on them ultimately turning into the one modern energy company? The one battery company? [0] https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/ https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers...

WORMS_EAT_WORMS 5y ago
It's called speculation. You're asking for an explanation to the collective market forces driving this. If anyone here knew a fully accurate reason, they'd be a billionaire investor.
btian 5y ago
It's the same optimistic story when I invested at $8 a share. The company will grow. People will take what the company makes in EPS today and assume it will stay there forever. So in 2012, people created Tesla death watch, bankruptcy tracker etc. In 2021 people wonder why others will wait 100 years to get their money back.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  Tesla has been in my portfolio for a long time as well. NO plan to sell. The media has been saying to sell since 2013, goes to show what they know, which is not much.
  - adam_arthur 5y ago
    Yeah, if you make money on a trade it means you were right about the business. The investors in Enron were right too, until it went bankrupt. Nothing is proven until the end. I do think Tesla has a large advantage in many respects, and a visionary leader is difficult for more legacy companies to overcome. I can think of many ways they can expand their margins well beyond traditional auto. But share price does not speak to any long term truth. Just a snapshot of public expectations of the truth.

paulpauper 5y ago

I guess it goes to show how Tesla's stock surge in 2020, which the media called irrational or a bubble, was not so irrational after all.

anonporridge 5y ago
Na. The current valuation is still pretty irrational.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  that is what is expected for growth stocks .amazon has been overvalued forever too. Tesla went from losing billions to making billions. That is a huge comeback and reflected in the share price.

aluminum96 5y ago

Multiple commenters have observed that Tesla faces increasing competition from Ford, Porsche, and others. But I don't think it's obvious at all that competitors can catch up: * Autopilot. Safe or not, autopilot is very convenient and super permissive, and owners seem to love it. * Superchargers. Third party charger maintenance is an unsolved problem, and CCS DC fast chargers are often broken, where they exist at all. It's truly awful. Maybe the federal government will bail out Ford here with a charging infrastructure program... or maybe not. * Status symbol. There's a reason Tesla has replaced Cadillac as a symbol of luxury in pop culture. * The Model 3/Y itself is a smooth, luxurious and fast ride. Don't discount the car's ability to compete on the traditional merits. (Edit: this is my opinion, based on comparing a Model 3 to a 3 series as well as various Nissan cars. YMMV; it's subjective.)

cavisne 5y ago
> Maybe the federal government will bail out Ford here with a charging infrastructure program Even if they did I don't think it would help. DC chargers are fundamentally a construction project. Tesla Supercharger locations often get delayed for months/years as they hit roadblocks like permits, disputes with landowners, shortages. So it's still going to be years before CCS chargers match the footprint. If/when Tesla opens up their network it could help a lot though.
- clouddrover 5y ago
  The number of CCS plugs in North America is currently at 70% of the number of Tesla plugs: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html CCS plugs will overtake Tesla plugs eventually. Tesla putting CCS plugs on their chargers will make it happen faster.
seanmcdirmid 5y ago
> There's a reason Tesla has replaced Cadillac as a symbol of luxury in pop culture. Cadillac hasn't been the symbol of luxury in pop culture for a few decades now. Lexus and the German up brands (BMW, Mercedes, Audi if not in the USA) are much more pervasive.

user3939382 5y ago

After many years of excitement over electric cars I finally got to ride in a Tesla. The suspension was horrible and made me sick, I felt every bump. Unless they make a dramatic change I’d never buy one.

modeless 5y ago
There are persistent rumors that Model Y will get air suspension eventually. Model S and X already have it and Cybertruck will too.
speedgoose 5y ago
A sporty car has sporty suspensions. I agree you feel every bump on the model 3. You can drive a model X with its air suspensions in boat mode (or whatever it's called) and it's another story.
supperburg 5y ago
Were you taking a test drive in Uganda? I test drove a P100 years ago and it was awesome.