14 ms·

Canada's 'gamble' on delaying, mixing and matching Covid-19 vaccines paid off

107 points by colinprince 5y ago

sharmin123 5y ago
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refurb 5y ago
“Bold” strategy? Canada had no option if they wanted to vaccinate quickly. Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines. Once it was apparent they couldn’t control the case numbers without vaccines, they took what they could get, prioritized first doses then realized they had different vaccines delivered for 2nd doses. The fact the mixed vaccines gives good protection is more luck than anything. Canada was forced into that decision before there was any solid data. But hey, i do the same thing when I do interviews. My mistakes becomes “prescient” when they just happen to work.
- smnrchrds 5y ago
  Canada's speed of vaccination (in terms of doses per capita) was in line with the EU, even though it was behind the US and the UK. Canada chose to delay second doses and mix and match, most EU countries chose to stick to the manufacturer recommendations. These results show that Canada's choice was a good one.
- defaultname 5y ago
  "Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines" Canada was one of the first countries to pre-order vaccines, signing massive agreements with just about every candidate maker. I'm aware of literally a single deal happening with another country prior to Canada's orders. What thwarted Canada's efforts was that the US defacto nationalized the medical establishment in that country, while Canada had basically become beholden to larger centers courtesy of an over reliance on free trade. With the US production nationalized, Canada, and truly the rest of the world, had to rely upon manufacturing in Europe. The EU at times lurched towards protectionism but never did, and Canada is in its debt. Though in the wake of it Canada has committed to no less than four vaccine manufacturing plants, including mRNA vaccines. Lesson learned. `"Bold” strategy? Canada had no option if they wanted to vaccinate quickly.' Yes, it was a strategy. The manufacturers were dictating a timeline for shots that would have meant that the number of people fully vaccinated would be quicker, but the number of people partly vaccinated would be much slower. People much smarter than you or I did an analysis and decided on another approach, including mixing shots. And yes, of course it was because of a supply constraint (for reasons mentioned elsewhere, but having positively nothing to do with Canada "dragging it's heels"), otherwise such approaches wouldn't be necessary, no?
  - jszymborski 5y ago
    Speaking of nationalising the medical industry: Fun fact, Canada was the home of Connaught labs, a publicly owned laboratory which was the first lab to produce the Salk's Polio vaccine, and went on to produce the Smallpox vaccine. In the 1970s, however, Canada went on a privatizing spree (incidentally, the same gov't that ratified NAFTA), and Connaught was privatised and sold many time since. More info here https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/11/the-public-lab-that-could-have-helped-fight-covid-19-pandemic.html https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/11/the-...
    - refurb 5y ago
      Canadian pharmaceutical R&D and manufacturing is almost entirely gone at this point. A big part of that was little interest in supporting the industry from the government. Apparently a vaccine manufacturer approached the government a while back and got a tepid response so decided to invest elsewhere.
      - jszymborski 5y ago
        That's definitely true, but I've some hope we'll be getting some back with the new gov't labs being built, and the AI hubs in Montreal and Toronto pushing the pharmacogenetics story.
    - wk_end 5y ago
      Your dates are a little off. The 70s had little to do with it - Canada’s privatization spree under Mulroney lined up with Reagan and Thatcher. So Connaught Labs was destroyed in the 80s by the Mulroney Conservatives. And NAFTA was ratified in the 90s by the Chretian Liberals, although it was Mulroney’s baby.
      - jszymborski 5y ago
        Yup you're totally right. I got mixed up with Connaught's sale to the Canada Development Corporation in 1972, and again confusing NAFTA's ratification with Mulroney's gov't.
- skybrian 5y ago
  Delaying the second dose would have saved lives in other countries too. Many countries were in a desperate situation, including the US. People were dying everywhere. But some countries were too inflexible to do the smart thing, so more people died.
  - bserge 5y ago
    People were dying in hospitals. Old people. Stop with the "durr, people are dying like flies" bs. Enough lives were ruined by that. The young will be paying for this crap for the foreseeable future.
    - skybrian 5y ago
      By “everywhere” I meant “all over the world.” This was a worldwide pandemic.
- abirkill 5y ago
  Out of the three vaccines in use in both Canada and Europe, it appears that Canada entered agreements as follows: Moderna: August 5th, 2020 [1] Pfizer: August 5th, 2020 [1] AstraZeneca: September 25th, 2020 [2] Europe entered agreements as follows: Moderna: November 25th, 2020 [3] Pfizer: November 11th, 2020 [4] AstraZeneca: August 27th, 2020 [5] I couldn't immediately find data on the quantities ordered, but this doesn't seem to support the claim that Canada was slow in placing orders? [1] https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-development/news/2020/08/government-of-canada-announces-major-steps-in-treating-and-preventing-covid-19-through-vaccines-and-therapies.html https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-develop... [2] https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2020/09/25/new-agreements-secure-additional-vaccine-candidates-covid-19 https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2020/09/25/new-agreem... [3] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2200 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_... [4] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2081 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_... [5] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1524 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_...
  - ChemSpider 5y ago
    Yeah, what they did not expect is the US blocking all exports. All vaccines had to be flown in from Europe, even so the same vaccine was produced just a few miles across the border.
  - azernik 5y ago
    Yeah, not slow in placing orders; the problem was that they didn't prioritize guaranteed delivery dates in contracts like the EU and US and Israel
    - Majromax 5y ago
      Evidently, Canada didn't prioritize Q1 delivery dates. From Our World in Data [1], Canada's total dose administration fell behind the EU during February/March 2021, as Pfizer's European production facility went offline for expansion/refurbishment. The dose-delaying recommendation discussed in this article became official in March, at the peak of the 'vaccine gap'. However, the overall procurement strategy was a success even in comparison to the EU. Canada's total dose administration rate caught up with the EU's by April at 25 doses/100 people, and during the spring/summer when vaccines became available to the general public Canada had greater availability. From contemporaneous reporting, it seemed that in summer 2020 Canada believed manufacturers' assertions that they'd have vaccine production ready by 2021Q2. In general, Canada's vaccine procurement strategy was successful, and the 'gamble' on second-dose delays discussed in this article proved useful at expanding availability among the general population. Complaints otherwise tend to focus on the US comparator (neglecting its effectively nationalized industry) or come from partisan political attacks. [1] -- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-06-16&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Vaccine+doses&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=CAN~European+Union~FRA~DEU https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- sandworm101 5y ago
  >> Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines. No. Canada made some bad bets on where they would be getting vaccine. Canada assumed that a particular person would still be in the white house and that early US vaccines would not be available for export. So Canada threw in largely with European suppliers. That gamble was wrong. The certain person lost and US vaccination rates were lower then expected. US vaccines were available for export earlier than predicted. Canada had not pre-ordered sufficient US vaccines. A mistake? Yes, but still a reasonable judgement call given the US political situation at the time.
  - defaultname 5y ago
    Canada's two biggest suppliers by far have been Pfizer and Moderna. Canada doesn't dictate where they supply the product from. The US nationalized production in that government decree made it illegal to ship to anyone else unless US contracts had been satisfied in full (NOTE: I am not judging this at all. The merits of it are arguable, but it does point out a weakness in a reliance on free trade). The change of government didn't change this an iota. The defense production act dictated that 100% of production was for the US until the government said otherwise. Moderna and Pfizer were both forced to supply Canada from the European factories as a result, even long after US vaccine manufacturing far exceeded consumption.
    - refurb 5y ago
      How did Israel gets enough vaccine by April then? Canada had barely started receiving doses then? I see an awful lot of whitewashing to cover mistakes going on.
      - HeavenFox 5y ago
        a) Canada has 4x the population of Israel b) Israel agreed to the extraordinary term of sharing their data with Pfizer, in exchange for getting doses early, something Canada almost surely won't be willing to do c) The Israeli PM Netanyahu was facing significant electoral challenges and desperately needed a win, so there was a lot of political will
- jltsiren 5y ago
  As far as I understand, the choice was an informed guess based on theoretical understanding of how vaccines work. For most vaccines, the time between doses is measured in months, not weeks. Those vaccines were tested slowly over years, and the tests focused on finding the most effective timing between doses. Covid-19 vaccines were developed in a hurry, and the priority was getting them approved as quickly as reasonably possible. Testing therefore focused on the shortest time between doses that was expected to produce good enough results. Even if longer spacing was expected to be more effective, testing it would have delayed the approval by months. Mixing vaccines also makes theoretical sense. Exposing the immune system to a more diverse range of threats may provide a more robust response when the virus mutates. Testing mixed vaccines is just more difficult in practice, because each company develops and tests its vaccines independently.
  - bakuninsbart 5y ago
    I got cross-vaccinated here in Germany due to being young and getting Astra Zenica as a first dosis. I still had the choice between a second dose of Biontech and AZ, so I read quite a bit about it at the time, and for example one of the leading Virologists in Germany basically said he wouldn't know why it shouldn't work. Basically, the data suggests that there isn't a suprising mechanism that does lead to less protection.
- Causality1 5y ago
  Why is it luck? They all result in exposing the body to the exact same spike protein. We would have to be dangerously wrong about what the vaccines do for them to not work fine together.
  - refurb 5y ago
    It’s not the exact same spike protein.
    - bserge 5y ago
      Even better? Immune system learns of two (slightly) different ones, making immunity more robust.
      - refurb 5y ago
        That’s the logic, and the argument why actual infection with Covid produces an even better immune response than mixed vaccines. But that’s by no means a guaranteed outcome. Mixed vaccines could have resulted in mediocre immune response to two different spike protein profiles.
    - Causality1 5y ago
      The differences are stabilizers intended to prevent conversion of the labile form of the S protein. If the vaccines didn't work together then one or both of them wouldn't work at all.
- mseidl 5y ago
  In Germany I have a mixed vaccine. I think they found mixed vaccines were better at fighting delta.
- plazmatic 5y ago
  Damn. What did Canada do to you? So salty. They had a smart strategy here. Give them credit, it paid off.
- mthoms 5y ago
  >Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines. The truth is the exact opposite. But don't let that get in the way of a good jab, eh? Headline from Dec 7, 2020: "Canada has reserved more vaccine doses per person than anywhere". https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-has-reserved-more-vaccine-doses-per-person-than-anywhere-1.1533041 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-has-reserved-more-vaccine...
- tomohawk 5y ago
  Given what is generally known about vaccination, it was not bold. It was judicious. However, given the hysteria of what passes for news outlets and social media, it was quite bold. People were convinced that the 2 week interval initially specified for Pfizer vax was bedrock truth. Any departing from that ONE TRUE WAY could only be bad. In such a political climate, actually following the known science was difficult. Giving 1 shot to everyone and spreading out the shots to a more normal interval allowed a lot more people to get immunity. Gettin the 2nd shot at a longer interval allowed those people to get a better long term immunity. Tbis is not an earth shaking discovery. If it worked differently than this, people would be asking why is this vax different?
roenxi 5y ago
We might look at these stats and think that they demonstrate a safe and effective vaccine. But there is still a very real risk that won't stop the government of Canada implementing a full China-style surveillance system tracking system that monitor where every citizen is, when and sets up all the necessary infrastructure to block someone's ability to travel.
- klyrs 5y ago
  > ...full China-style surveillance system tracking system that monitor where every citizen is... Got any sources indicating that this is in the works?
  - roenxi 5y ago
    They're setting up restrictions on public (and private) transport [0]. Work is being done to support using OHS as a lever to push vaccination [1] which is going to require centralised databases integrated into business processes. Toronto is setting up systems to verify that everyone is vaccinated at gatherings of 1,000+ people [2]. This is setting the infrastructure to implement a social credit system. It is a small step from here to to full thing. The intent is the same and the tools are similar. [0] https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/10/mandatory-covid-19-vaccination-requirements-for-federally-regulated-transportation-employees-and-travellers.html https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/10/manda... [1] https://www.ohscanada.com/opinions/mandatory-vaccination-policies-the-way-of-the-future/ https://www.ohscanada.com/opinions/mandatory-vaccination-pol... [2] https://www.hrreporter.com/opinion/canadian-hr-law/the-movement-towards-mandatory-vaccines-in-canada/359128 https://www.hrreporter.com/opinion/canadian-hr-law/the-movem...
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - SECProto 5y ago
      ...the step from "vaccine requirements on federally regulated transport services" is a hell of a lot closer to "drivers license to operate a car" or "recognized ID to board a plane" than it is to "full China-style surveillance system tracking system that monitor where every citizen is". I think your interpretation of this is hyperbolic.
GaryTang 5y ago
In related news, did anyone see the turnout tonight at the Texas A&M and Alabama game? Second biggest turnout on record — 106k people
- School-Cotton 5y ago
  Cool, good to know people are having fun.
yelnatz 5y ago
I have mixed vaccinations since I'm in BC. Hopefully I get a third booster shot so I can be considered fully vaccinated in the states.
- didibus 5y ago
  I'm in the states, and they consider 2 dose to be "fully vaccinated". This is relevant for all laws that mention the requirement is to be "fully vaccinated", and that's 2 dose for Pfizer or Moderna and one for J&J.
  - Majromax 5y ago
    The problem is that the United States is relying on FDA approval for its recognized vaccines. As a result, AZ shots are not recognized for US-travel purposes, so a Canadian who received a first AZ shot and a second Pfizer shot has only one dose as far as the US is concerned. Canada has approved the J&J vaccine, but it has not distributed any such shots. The first shipment it received came from the troubled production facility that operated off-spec, and the shipment was ultimately rejected (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/world/canada-jj-vaccine.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/world/canada-jj-vaccine.h...). Canada has only distributed AZ, Pfizer, and Moderna shots.
    - didibus 5y ago
      Oh I see, thanks for the clarification.
  - tetraodonpuffer 5y ago
    If you have been vaccinated in Canada with AstraZeneca you are not considered vaccinated at all in the US (not approved) and you might or might not be considered vaccinated in Europe depending on the manufacturer/lot of your shots (UK, vaxzevria, yes, India, covishield, no, USA, just called AstraZeneca, cannot find any information about it) and the European country in question (not all countries accept all AZ manufacturers as valid). It is a fairly ridiculous situation and if you need to travel it's definitely an issue given a lot of countries are moving towards "green pass" type actions where unless you are "fully vaccinated" (with the approved vaccine) life will be very difficult for you. There really should be a better solution about at least the most common vaccines being cross recognized everywhere and not used to artificially block people from moving (why should AZ manufactured in the UK be treated any differently from AZ manufactured in India)
Wolfenstein98k 5y ago
Tyler and Alex (of Marginal Revolution) have been right about every major piece of advice they gave, and often many weeks before anyone else said it. Vindicated in their "first doses first" advice yet again.
rubyist5eva 5y ago
Paid off in what exactly? Many of our provincial governments have implemented totalitarian measures despite an insanely high vaccination rate and low death rate - creating a medically segregated society. In one province, the government has given itself vast power to perform warrantless search, confiscate property and conscript any person to the cause of "managing the emergency". Our courts uphold the measures because of the 'unprecedence' of a global pandemic of a disease with a median survival rate of 99.8% where the VAST majority of deaths are in people over 60 and in many places we have vaccination rates higher than 95% in that demographic. The federal government is about to implement a no-fly or rail policy for unvaccinated people - whether you are a citizen or not. If you're a foreign national from overseas you better get out while you still can - the Berlin Wall is going up. CBC is the state funded broadcaster, take everything they write with a grain of salt, like you would with RT for example.
- ipaddr 5y ago
  The government's actions I can understand. The courts decisions based on 'unprecedence' events is troublesome. It creates a low barrier for the removal of any rights. An event will happen like this again.
  - roenxi 5y ago
    Not to mention, these events are precdented. This is a 1:40 to 1:100 year pandemic; depending on how much of it has to do with modern airlines.
    - Factorium 5y ago
      Try once a decade: https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-deaths-1851.jpg https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-...
  - xiphias2 5y ago
    Removal of rights is one thing that is debatable. Not giving them back when the emergency has been gone and in developed countries everybody who wanted to get vaccinated got it is clearly an overstep.
kcartlidge 5y ago
> Canadian data now provides real world evidence that vaccinated people produce more antibodies if their second shot is delayed This was decided in March 2021 but the UK introduced a three month delay between vaccine shots in January 2021. What was it about the UK data (btw I'm British) that meant it didn't count as "real world" despite being months ahead of Canada? Don't get me wrong, the UK was laughed at for doing that so it genuinely was bold for Canada to do the same (as they added a fourth month onto the three the UK was already doing). It just seems a little dismissive of the UK who took the decision months earlier and had all the international flak (including from the manufacturers) for doing so.
- harry8 5y ago
  It's very difficult to take Boris Johnson seriously on any level for a great many people. Even if he was expertly advised and followed the advice many would want to see strong evidence that this occurred before assuming it was just another random whim divorced from reality in support of a particular pose that is difficult for outsiders to understand. I'm not saying that's a fair analysis and it probably isn't but it is a very widely held one. I know the UK is pretending the herd immunity strategy of encouraging everyone to go to football games because they only infect 5 people actually never happened and was never policy despite the press conferences etc. It seems pretty unlikely to me that people from across the political ideology spectrum got that idea because of a unified Johnson smear. -------- Aside it is possible it's a unified smear, of course. We've seen unified smears (nobly or ignobly motivated) of Sanders, Trump and Corbyn to name just 3. (And do you like /any/ of those politicians? A smear is still a smear when you dislike them with vigor.) It's harder to see it here. Johnson's charm works about as well outside of the UK as Trump's in the big coastal cities and Europe. [1] I have a strong visceral dislike for Trump. The man makes my blood boil and reason hard to cling to. Yet the Russian bounties story in Afghanistan is one place I can look at a man I utterly loathe and note there was a unified smear taking place in the media. I'd be interested if someone has a similar case concerning Johnson. There don't seem to be many consequences for reporting, publishing and repeating utter falsehoods which makes sensible, reasoned, policy analysis by those of us who merely want to vote in a sensible manner increasingly challenging.
- hnbad 5y ago
newsclues 5y ago
Canadian government funded media outlet defends the government’s actions. There was a reason people complained about the government’s funding of media.
- earlyriser 5y ago
  Some people, but I see more people happy of having public medias.
  - newsclues 5y ago
    I don’t need a state media and public funding for private media. CBC used to be good, it’s pretty bad nowadays.
- bshipp 5y ago
  Just the people in Alberta. No one anywhere else really notices or cares about the CBC. I've always appreciated having a national news source, personally. I think it's fairly high quality and reasonably unbiased compared to some of the alternatives.
- mthoms 5y ago
  Sigh. This article is based on scientific evidence. Please leave your politics out of it. Anyways, the vast majority seem perfectly happy with the CBC. Fewer than 1 in 5 Canadians want CBC funding decreased: poll https://ipolitics.ca/2019/05/13/nearly-80-of-canadians-want-cbc-funding-increased-or-maintained-poll/ https://ipolitics.ca/2019/05/13/nearly-80-of-canadians-want-...
  - dgudkov 5y ago
    This poll was done in 2019. Things were a bit different back then. The majority is probably still happy with CBC, but the proportion could change.
    - mthoms 5y ago
      Paraphrasing your comment: "ok, you're right... but that could change one day!" Thanks tips.
tomohawk 5y ago
Interesting note: any Canadians wanting to work in the US or go to school in the US would be forced by policies here to get vaccinated YET AGAIN, because US policy is not about safety or immunity, but about compliance with a partisan position.
- querulous 5y ago
  this isn't true at all. only canadians who received az as one of their doses (less than 10% of the population) are not recognized as vaccinated in the usa
  - johnisgood 5y ago
    Eh, I think his point stands. Similarly to the story I told in my other comment: 1. Hey, you need the vaccine to go in there to visit your relative! 2. OK. Woman walks to the other part of the hospital to get vaccinated. 3. Woman returns 10 minutes later and is able to visit the relative. Why? I thought the vaccine takes time to work. Plus, I thought asymptomatic people have a next to none chance of transmitting, vaccinated or not. So, is it about health & safety?
    - mthoms 5y ago
      What you’re describing is a loophole - an oversight. Not a grand political conspiracy. I’m not sure the asymptotic part is correct or not but consider that people can lie about not having symptoms.
      - johnisgood 5y ago
        I am not saying it is a conspiracy, I am saying it is dumb, a dumb oversight, yes, which makes it less about health & safety, so much less that it is not, really. We do body temperature checks.
dirtyid 5y ago
Well we followed UK's gamble, procured and had access to more variety of vaccines. Got supplies from US sooner than expected despite their export ban because due to low uptake from antivaxxers. It was equal parts good planning and good fortune. Like how gov found billions of lost N95 masks from storage during PPE shortage. Also helps the major cities like Toronto and BC has sensible people with fairly high vax rate even globally.
sleepysysadmin 5y ago
The yellow journalism from the CBC is at it again. You can't trust anything they say. The actual thing that happened? Canada(mainly federal) completely screwed up. Trudeau was busy trying to get a manufacturing plant built to produce. That is to say, Trudeau was spending big $ on his own riding in montreal. https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/vaccines-will-be-produced-in-montreal-reviving-a-canadian-sector-dormant-for-decades-1.5292259 https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/vaccines-will-be-produced-in-mon... And because of that... we were really far behind for a long time. you might also notice... we never actually produced any novavax vaccines. We are pfizer and moderna. So where'd the money go? Oh right... Trudeau and corruption... basically the same thing. https://nationalpost.com/news/u-s-vaccine-rollout-vastly-outpacing-canadas-what-can-we-learn-from-american-push https://nationalpost.com/news/u-s-vaccine-rollout-vastly-out... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/04/live-covid-news-canadians-envious-us-vaccination-program/7079932002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/04/live-c... Very clear that the CBC article is basically propaganda.

107 points by colinprince 5y ago

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refurb 5y ago

“Bold” strategy? Canada had no option if they wanted to vaccinate quickly. Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines. Once it was apparent they couldn’t control the case numbers without vaccines, they took what they could get, prioritized first doses then realized they had different vaccines delivered for 2nd doses. The fact the mixed vaccines gives good protection is more luck than anything. Canada was forced into that decision before there was any solid data. But hey, i do the same thing when I do interviews. My mistakes becomes “prescient” when they just happen to work.

smnrchrds 5y ago
Canada's speed of vaccination (in terms of doses per capita) was in line with the EU, even though it was behind the US and the UK. Canada chose to delay second doses and mix and match, most EU countries chose to stick to the manufacturer recommendations. These results show that Canada's choice was a good one.
defaultname 5y ago
"Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines" Canada was one of the first countries to pre-order vaccines, signing massive agreements with just about every candidate maker. I'm aware of literally a single deal happening with another country prior to Canada's orders. What thwarted Canada's efforts was that the US defacto nationalized the medical establishment in that country, while Canada had basically become beholden to larger centers courtesy of an over reliance on free trade. With the US production nationalized, Canada, and truly the rest of the world, had to rely upon manufacturing in Europe. The EU at times lurched towards protectionism but never did, and Canada is in its debt. Though in the wake of it Canada has committed to no less than four vaccine manufacturing plants, including mRNA vaccines. Lesson learned. `"Bold” strategy? Canada had no option if they wanted to vaccinate quickly.' Yes, it was a strategy. The manufacturers were dictating a timeline for shots that would have meant that the number of people fully vaccinated would be quicker, but the number of people partly vaccinated would be much slower. People much smarter than you or I did an analysis and decided on another approach, including mixing shots. And yes, of course it was because of a supply constraint (for reasons mentioned elsewhere, but having positively nothing to do with Canada "dragging it's heels"), otherwise such approaches wouldn't be necessary, no?
- jszymborski 5y ago
  Speaking of nationalising the medical industry: Fun fact, Canada was the home of Connaught labs, a publicly owned laboratory which was the first lab to produce the Salk's Polio vaccine, and went on to produce the Smallpox vaccine. In the 1970s, however, Canada went on a privatizing spree (incidentally, the same gov't that ratified NAFTA), and Connaught was privatised and sold many time since. More info here https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/11/the-public-lab-that-could-have-helped-fight-covid-19-pandemic.html https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/11/the-...
  - refurb 5y ago
    Canadian pharmaceutical R&D and manufacturing is almost entirely gone at this point. A big part of that was little interest in supporting the industry from the government. Apparently a vaccine manufacturer approached the government a while back and got a tepid response so decided to invest elsewhere.
    - jszymborski 5y ago
      That's definitely true, but I've some hope we'll be getting some back with the new gov't labs being built, and the AI hubs in Montreal and Toronto pushing the pharmacogenetics story.
  - wk_end 5y ago
    Your dates are a little off. The 70s had little to do with it - Canada’s privatization spree under Mulroney lined up with Reagan and Thatcher. So Connaught Labs was destroyed in the 80s by the Mulroney Conservatives. And NAFTA was ratified in the 90s by the Chretian Liberals, although it was Mulroney’s baby.
    - jszymborski 5y ago
      Yup you're totally right. I got mixed up with Connaught's sale to the Canada Development Corporation in 1972, and again confusing NAFTA's ratification with Mulroney's gov't.
skybrian 5y ago
Delaying the second dose would have saved lives in other countries too. Many countries were in a desperate situation, including the US. People were dying everywhere. But some countries were too inflexible to do the smart thing, so more people died.
- bserge 5y ago
  People were dying in hospitals. Old people. Stop with the "durr, people are dying like flies" bs. Enough lives were ruined by that. The young will be paying for this crap for the foreseeable future.
  - skybrian 5y ago
    By “everywhere” I meant “all over the world.” This was a worldwide pandemic.
abirkill 5y ago
Out of the three vaccines in use in both Canada and Europe, it appears that Canada entered agreements as follows: Moderna: August 5th, 2020 [1] Pfizer: August 5th, 2020 [1] AstraZeneca: September 25th, 2020 [2] Europe entered agreements as follows: Moderna: November 25th, 2020 [3] Pfizer: November 11th, 2020 [4] AstraZeneca: August 27th, 2020 [5] I couldn't immediately find data on the quantities ordered, but this doesn't seem to support the claim that Canada was slow in placing orders? [1] https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-development/news/2020/08/government-of-canada-announces-major-steps-in-treating-and-preventing-covid-19-through-vaccines-and-therapies.html https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-develop... [2] https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2020/09/25/new-agreements-secure-additional-vaccine-candidates-covid-19 https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2020/09/25/new-agreem... [3] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2200 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_... [4] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2081 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_... [5] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1524 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_...
- ChemSpider 5y ago
  Yeah, what they did not expect is the US blocking all exports. All vaccines had to be flown in from Europe, even so the same vaccine was produced just a few miles across the border.
- azernik 5y ago
  Yeah, not slow in placing orders; the problem was that they didn't prioritize guaranteed delivery dates in contracts like the EU and US and Israel
  - Majromax 5y ago
    Evidently, Canada didn't prioritize Q1 delivery dates. From Our World in Data [1], Canada's total dose administration fell behind the EU during February/March 2021, as Pfizer's European production facility went offline for expansion/refurbishment. The dose-delaying recommendation discussed in this article became official in March, at the peak of the 'vaccine gap'. However, the overall procurement strategy was a success even in comparison to the EU. Canada's total dose administration rate caught up with the EU's by April at 25 doses/100 people, and during the spring/summer when vaccines became available to the general public Canada had greater availability. From contemporaneous reporting, it seemed that in summer 2020 Canada believed manufacturers' assertions that they'd have vaccine production ready by 2021Q2. In general, Canada's vaccine procurement strategy was successful, and the 'gamble' on second-dose delays discussed in this article proved useful at expanding availability among the general population. Complaints otherwise tend to focus on the US comparator (neglecting its effectively nationalized industry) or come from partisan political attacks. [1] -- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-06-16&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Vaccine+doses&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=CAN~European+Union~FRA~DEU https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
sandworm101 5y ago
>> Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines. No. Canada made some bad bets on where they would be getting vaccine. Canada assumed that a particular person would still be in the white house and that early US vaccines would not be available for export. So Canada threw in largely with European suppliers. That gamble was wrong. The certain person lost and US vaccination rates were lower then expected. US vaccines were available for export earlier than predicted. Canada had not pre-ordered sufficient US vaccines. A mistake? Yes, but still a reasonable judgement call given the US political situation at the time.
- defaultname 5y ago
  Canada's two biggest suppliers by far have been Pfizer and Moderna. Canada doesn't dictate where they supply the product from. The US nationalized production in that government decree made it illegal to ship to anyone else unless US contracts had been satisfied in full (NOTE: I am not judging this at all. The merits of it are arguable, but it does point out a weakness in a reliance on free trade). The change of government didn't change this an iota. The defense production act dictated that 100% of production was for the US until the government said otherwise. Moderna and Pfizer were both forced to supply Canada from the European factories as a result, even long after US vaccine manufacturing far exceeded consumption.
  - refurb 5y ago
    How did Israel gets enough vaccine by April then? Canada had barely started receiving doses then? I see an awful lot of whitewashing to cover mistakes going on.
    - HeavenFox 5y ago
      a) Canada has 4x the population of Israel b) Israel agreed to the extraordinary term of sharing their data with Pfizer, in exchange for getting doses early, something Canada almost surely won't be willing to do c) The Israeli PM Netanyahu was facing significant electoral challenges and desperately needed a win, so there was a lot of political will
jltsiren 5y ago
As far as I understand, the choice was an informed guess based on theoretical understanding of how vaccines work. For most vaccines, the time between doses is measured in months, not weeks. Those vaccines were tested slowly over years, and the tests focused on finding the most effective timing between doses. Covid-19 vaccines were developed in a hurry, and the priority was getting them approved as quickly as reasonably possible. Testing therefore focused on the shortest time between doses that was expected to produce good enough results. Even if longer spacing was expected to be more effective, testing it would have delayed the approval by months. Mixing vaccines also makes theoretical sense. Exposing the immune system to a more diverse range of threats may provide a more robust response when the virus mutates. Testing mixed vaccines is just more difficult in practice, because each company develops and tests its vaccines independently.
- bakuninsbart 5y ago
  I got cross-vaccinated here in Germany due to being young and getting Astra Zenica as a first dosis. I still had the choice between a second dose of Biontech and AZ, so I read quite a bit about it at the time, and for example one of the leading Virologists in Germany basically said he wouldn't know why it shouldn't work. Basically, the data suggests that there isn't a suprising mechanism that does lead to less protection.
Causality1 5y ago
Why is it luck? They all result in exposing the body to the exact same spike protein. We would have to be dangerously wrong about what the vaccines do for them to not work fine together.
- refurb 5y ago
  It’s not the exact same spike protein.
  - bserge 5y ago
    Even better? Immune system learns of two (slightly) different ones, making immunity more robust.
    - refurb 5y ago
      That’s the logic, and the argument why actual infection with Covid produces an even better immune response than mixed vaccines. But that’s by no means a guaranteed outcome. Mixed vaccines could have resulted in mediocre immune response to two different spike protein profiles.
  - Causality1 5y ago
    The differences are stabilizers intended to prevent conversion of the labile form of the S protein. If the vaccines didn't work together then one or both of them wouldn't work at all.
mseidl 5y ago
In Germany I have a mixed vaccine. I think they found mixed vaccines were better at fighting delta.
plazmatic 5y ago
Damn. What did Canada do to you? So salty. They had a smart strategy here. Give them credit, it paid off.
mthoms 5y ago
>Unlike the US and Europe, Canada dragged its heels on pre-ordering vaccines. The truth is the exact opposite. But don't let that get in the way of a good jab, eh? Headline from Dec 7, 2020: "Canada has reserved more vaccine doses per person than anywhere". https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-has-reserved-more-vaccine-doses-per-person-than-anywhere-1.1533041 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-has-reserved-more-vaccine...
tomohawk 5y ago
Given what is generally known about vaccination, it was not bold. It was judicious. However, given the hysteria of what passes for news outlets and social media, it was quite bold. People were convinced that the 2 week interval initially specified for Pfizer vax was bedrock truth. Any departing from that ONE TRUE WAY could only be bad. In such a political climate, actually following the known science was difficult. Giving 1 shot to everyone and spreading out the shots to a more normal interval allowed a lot more people to get immunity. Gettin the 2nd shot at a longer interval allowed those people to get a better long term immunity. Tbis is not an earth shaking discovery. If it worked differently than this, people would be asking why is this vax different?

roenxi 5y ago

We might look at these stats and think that they demonstrate a safe and effective vaccine. But there is still a very real risk that won't stop the government of Canada implementing a full China-style surveillance system tracking system that monitor where every citizen is, when and sets up all the necessary infrastructure to block someone's ability to travel.

klyrs 5y ago
> ...full China-style surveillance system tracking system that monitor where every citizen is... Got any sources indicating that this is in the works?
- roenxi 5y ago
  They're setting up restrictions on public (and private) transport [0]. Work is being done to support using OHS as a lever to push vaccination [1] which is going to require centralised databases integrated into business processes. Toronto is setting up systems to verify that everyone is vaccinated at gatherings of 1,000+ people [2]. This is setting the infrastructure to implement a social credit system. It is a small step from here to to full thing. The intent is the same and the tools are similar. [0] https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/10/mandatory-covid-19-vaccination-requirements-for-federally-regulated-transportation-employees-and-travellers.html https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/10/manda... [1] https://www.ohscanada.com/opinions/mandatory-vaccination-policies-the-way-of-the-future/ https://www.ohscanada.com/opinions/mandatory-vaccination-pol... [2] https://www.hrreporter.com/opinion/canadian-hr-law/the-movement-towards-mandatory-vaccines-in-canada/359128 https://www.hrreporter.com/opinion/canadian-hr-law/the-movem...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - SECProto 5y ago
    ...the step from "vaccine requirements on federally regulated transport services" is a hell of a lot closer to "drivers license to operate a car" or "recognized ID to board a plane" than it is to "full China-style surveillance system tracking system that monitor where every citizen is". I think your interpretation of this is hyperbolic.

GaryTang 5y ago

In related news, did anyone see the turnout tonight at the Texas A&M and Alabama game? Second biggest turnout on record — 106k people

School-Cotton 5y ago
Cool, good to know people are having fun.

yelnatz 5y ago

I have mixed vaccinations since I'm in BC. Hopefully I get a third booster shot so I can be considered fully vaccinated in the states.

didibus 5y ago
I'm in the states, and they consider 2 dose to be "fully vaccinated". This is relevant for all laws that mention the requirement is to be "fully vaccinated", and that's 2 dose for Pfizer or Moderna and one for J&J.
- Majromax 5y ago
  The problem is that the United States is relying on FDA approval for its recognized vaccines. As a result, AZ shots are not recognized for US-travel purposes, so a Canadian who received a first AZ shot and a second Pfizer shot has only one dose as far as the US is concerned. Canada has approved the J&J vaccine, but it has not distributed any such shots. The first shipment it received came from the troubled production facility that operated off-spec, and the shipment was ultimately rejected (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/world/canada-jj-vaccine.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/world/canada-jj-vaccine.h...). Canada has only distributed AZ, Pfizer, and Moderna shots.
  - didibus 5y ago
    Oh I see, thanks for the clarification.
- tetraodonpuffer 5y ago
  If you have been vaccinated in Canada with AstraZeneca you are not considered vaccinated at all in the US (not approved) and you might or might not be considered vaccinated in Europe depending on the manufacturer/lot of your shots (UK, vaxzevria, yes, India, covishield, no, USA, just called AstraZeneca, cannot find any information about it) and the European country in question (not all countries accept all AZ manufacturers as valid). It is a fairly ridiculous situation and if you need to travel it's definitely an issue given a lot of countries are moving towards "green pass" type actions where unless you are "fully vaccinated" (with the approved vaccine) life will be very difficult for you. There really should be a better solution about at least the most common vaccines being cross recognized everywhere and not used to artificially block people from moving (why should AZ manufactured in the UK be treated any differently from AZ manufactured in India)

Wolfenstein98k 5y ago

Tyler and Alex (of Marginal Revolution) have been right about every major piece of advice they gave, and often many weeks before anyone else said it. Vindicated in their "first doses first" advice yet again.

rubyist5eva 5y ago

Paid off in what exactly? Many of our provincial governments have implemented totalitarian measures despite an insanely high vaccination rate and low death rate - creating a medically segregated society. In one province, the government has given itself vast power to perform warrantless search, confiscate property and conscript any person to the cause of "managing the emergency". Our courts uphold the measures because of the 'unprecedence' of a global pandemic of a disease with a median survival rate of 99.8% where the VAST majority of deaths are in people over 60 and in many places we have vaccination rates higher than 95% in that demographic. The federal government is about to implement a no-fly or rail policy for unvaccinated people - whether you are a citizen or not. If you're a foreign national from overseas you better get out while you still can - the Berlin Wall is going up. CBC is the state funded broadcaster, take everything they write with a grain of salt, like you would with RT for example.

ipaddr 5y ago
The government's actions I can understand. The courts decisions based on 'unprecedence' events is troublesome. It creates a low barrier for the removal of any rights. An event will happen like this again.
- roenxi 5y ago
  Not to mention, these events are precdented. This is a 1:40 to 1:100 year pandemic; depending on how much of it has to do with modern airlines.
  - Factorium 5y ago
    Try once a decade: https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-deaths-1851.jpg https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-...
- xiphias2 5y ago
  Removal of rights is one thing that is debatable. Not giving them back when the emergency has been gone and in developed countries everybody who wanted to get vaccinated got it is clearly an overstep.

kcartlidge 5y ago

> Canadian data now provides real world evidence that vaccinated people produce more antibodies if their second shot is delayed This was decided in March 2021 but the UK introduced a three month delay between vaccine shots in January 2021. What was it about the UK data (btw I'm British) that meant it didn't count as "real world" despite being months ahead of Canada? Don't get me wrong, the UK was laughed at for doing that so it genuinely was bold for Canada to do the same (as they added a fourth month onto the three the UK was already doing). It just seems a little dismissive of the UK who took the decision months earlier and had all the international flak (including from the manufacturers) for doing so.

harry8 5y ago
It's very difficult to take Boris Johnson seriously on any level for a great many people. Even if he was expertly advised and followed the advice many would want to see strong evidence that this occurred before assuming it was just another random whim divorced from reality in support of a particular pose that is difficult for outsiders to understand. I'm not saying that's a fair analysis and it probably isn't but it is a very widely held one. I know the UK is pretending the herd immunity strategy of encouraging everyone to go to football games because they only infect 5 people actually never happened and was never policy despite the press conferences etc. It seems pretty unlikely to me that people from across the political ideology spectrum got that idea because of a unified Johnson smear. -------- Aside it is possible it's a unified smear, of course. We've seen unified smears (nobly or ignobly motivated) of Sanders, Trump and Corbyn to name just 3. (And do you like /any/ of those politicians? A smear is still a smear when you dislike them with vigor.) It's harder to see it here. Johnson's charm works about as well outside of the UK as Trump's in the big coastal cities and Europe. [1] I have a strong visceral dislike for Trump. The man makes my blood boil and reason hard to cling to. Yet the Russian bounties story in Afghanistan is one place I can look at a man I utterly loathe and note there was a unified smear taking place in the media. I'd be interested if someone has a similar case concerning Johnson. There don't seem to be many consequences for reporting, publishing and repeating utter falsehoods which makes sensible, reasoned, policy analysis by those of us who merely want to vote in a sensible manner increasingly challenging.
hnbad 5y ago

newsclues 5y ago

Canadian government funded media outlet defends the government’s actions. There was a reason people complained about the government’s funding of media.

earlyriser 5y ago
Some people, but I see more people happy of having public medias.
- newsclues 5y ago
  I don’t need a state media and public funding for private media. CBC used to be good, it’s pretty bad nowadays.
bshipp 5y ago
Just the people in Alberta. No one anywhere else really notices or cares about the CBC. I've always appreciated having a national news source, personally. I think it's fairly high quality and reasonably unbiased compared to some of the alternatives.
mthoms 5y ago
Sigh. This article is based on scientific evidence. Please leave your politics out of it. Anyways, the vast majority seem perfectly happy with the CBC. Fewer than 1 in 5 Canadians want CBC funding decreased: poll https://ipolitics.ca/2019/05/13/nearly-80-of-canadians-want-cbc-funding-increased-or-maintained-poll/ https://ipolitics.ca/2019/05/13/nearly-80-of-canadians-want-...
- dgudkov 5y ago
  This poll was done in 2019. Things were a bit different back then. The majority is probably still happy with CBC, but the proportion could change.
  - mthoms 5y ago
    Paraphrasing your comment: "ok, you're right... but that could change one day!" Thanks tips.

tomohawk 5y ago

Interesting note: any Canadians wanting to work in the US or go to school in the US would be forced by policies here to get vaccinated YET AGAIN, because US policy is not about safety or immunity, but about compliance with a partisan position.

querulous 5y ago
this isn't true at all. only canadians who received az as one of their doses (less than 10% of the population) are not recognized as vaccinated in the usa
- johnisgood 5y ago
  Eh, I think his point stands. Similarly to the story I told in my other comment: 1. Hey, you need the vaccine to go in there to visit your relative! 2. OK. Woman walks to the other part of the hospital to get vaccinated. 3. Woman returns 10 minutes later and is able to visit the relative. Why? I thought the vaccine takes time to work. Plus, I thought asymptomatic people have a next to none chance of transmitting, vaccinated or not. So, is it about health & safety?
  - mthoms 5y ago
    What you’re describing is a loophole - an oversight. Not a grand political conspiracy. I’m not sure the asymptotic part is correct or not but consider that people can lie about not having symptoms.
    - johnisgood 5y ago
      I am not saying it is a conspiracy, I am saying it is dumb, a dumb oversight, yes, which makes it less about health & safety, so much less that it is not, really. We do body temperature checks.

dirtyid 5y ago

Well we followed UK's gamble, procured and had access to more variety of vaccines. Got supplies from US sooner than expected despite their export ban because due to low uptake from antivaxxers. It was equal parts good planning and good fortune. Like how gov found billions of lost N95 masks from storage during PPE shortage. Also helps the major cities like Toronto and BC has sensible people with fairly high vax rate even globally.

sleepysysadmin 5y ago

The yellow journalism from the CBC is at it again. You can't trust anything they say. The actual thing that happened? Canada(mainly federal) completely screwed up. Trudeau was busy trying to get a manufacturing plant built to produce. That is to say, Trudeau was spending big $ on his own riding in montreal. https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/vaccines-will-be-produced-in-montreal-reviving-a-canadian-sector-dormant-for-decades-1.5292259 https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/vaccines-will-be-produced-in-mon... And because of that... we were really far behind for a long time. you might also notice... we never actually produced any novavax vaccines. We are pfizer and moderna. So where'd the money go? Oh right... Trudeau and corruption... basically the same thing. https://nationalpost.com/news/u-s-vaccine-rollout-vastly-outpacing-canadas-what-can-we-learn-from-american-push https://nationalpost.com/news/u-s-vaccine-rollout-vastly-out... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/04/live-covid-news-canadians-envious-us-vaccination-program/7079932002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/04/04/live-c... Very clear that the CBC article is basically propaganda.