8 ms·

Lebanon's central electricity grid shuts down as fuel shortages continue

125 points by bryan0 5y ago

achow 5y ago
Due to Lebanon's 'Mediterranean' climate [1] and long coastline, solar and wind energy could be answer for the future. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Lebanon#/media/File:Koppen-Geiger_Map_LBN_present.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Lebanon#/media/Fi...
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  You'd need the politicians to not steal it first... natural resources wouldn't do a ton for Lebanon right now.
- b0tzzzzzzman 5y ago
  Yes we should all have such benefactors as the West to seek a means to overspend for the future. Why not borrow a few trillion from a private bank and build a new means of energy.
- chii 5y ago
  Infrastructure investments require stable society and trustworthy politician. Lebanon has neither atm. The people there need to over throw the current govt, and remove their own religious prejudices that led to the current state of govt in the first place.
zz865 5y ago
I dont understand why some country can't just send a tanker, the goodwill would be immense.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Why doesn't every country do balanced trade? The goodwill would be immense and we would pull billions of humans out of poverty into the global middle class. The goodwill would be immense. Humans don't actually want to cooperate.
- anonporridge 5y ago
  Is goodwill from Lebanon worth a tanker full of fuel? Not that I don't have sympathy for the people suffering, but this is the question anyone with control over that level of wealth would ask.
  - base698 5y ago
    Found the MBA.
  - missedthecue 5y ago
    There's a cold war in the middle east between Saudi Arabia and Iran right now. Surely getting an entire nation state in the region on your side for the cost of a few oil tankers (of which KSA and Iran have no shortage) is worth it?
    - lazide 5y ago
      KSA subsidized Lebanon for a long time already, but they got fed up with them a few years back.
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    The premise that nobody cares enough to send fuel, or an amount of aid comparable in value to a tanker of fuel, is false.
- HenryKissinger 5y ago
  The last 80 years have taught us a few things: - State collapse is more common than we think, but not impossible to recover from (Germany post WW2, Iraq post 2010?) - The international community is willing to cooperate during major natural disasters (2004 earthquake, Japanese earthquake, Haiti earthquake) - The international community is less willing to cooperate during man-made political disasters with humanitarian consequences (Somalia 1980s, Russia 1990s), though there are notable exceptions (Bosnian War, Kosovo War) - No one really cares about genocides happening in other countries - Successful nation building directed by a foreign power is the exception, not the norm. - Some countries will never achieve prosperity
  - XorNot 5y ago
    > - Some countries will never achieve prosperity Seems like a weirdly determinate conclusion for span of time less then one human lifetime.
    - Thorentis 5y ago
      Prosperity is unfortunately a zero sum game. Until we develop the means to fully automate the creation of all of humanity's needs and wants, there will be winners and losers at the national level.
      - asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
        That is definitely not true. Many of the things we value the most are found in abundance in all countries, if the society is well organized to achieve these ends. Leisure, food, space to live, friends, peace, safety, etc. There are some few goods whose production is truly limited by our ability to extract raw resources, but these are the exception, not the norm.
        rsj_hn 5y ago
        This is a good point, but I'd point out that well-organized societies are much rarer (and shorter-lived) than any vein of gold, one of the biggest enemies of having a well-organized society being the politics of envy and resentment as displayed in the post you were replying to. When that type of culture is ascendant, then things are not only zero sum, but often negative-sum, since the party takes a cut of transferring wealth from winners to losers, and often just transfers wealth to itself.
- XorNot 5y ago
  No famine has ever been caused by the world not growing enough food for everyone.
  - gruez 5y ago
    ever? The first entry in the wikipedia article for "list of famines" points to "4.2-kiloyear event", which was apparently global. At that scale it doesn't seem hard for the deficit to negate any meager surplus that non-affected societies can produce. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event
  - lwouis 5y ago
    Only recently can people access "the world" goods. In the past there was limited range to provision from outside. Mostly boats and carriages. Famines could then occur because of a bad harvest or a few in a row. Farming has never been a surefire thing!
    - perl4ever 5y ago
      I think that is the point of the comment you're responding to?
    - XorNot 5y ago
      As far back as the Irish potato famine, there was plenty of food - the problem was caused by the political power structures and rent seeking which would not bend an inch to help the peasantry. In the modern era, we have more then enough food to feed everyone: no one goes hungry because there is not enough.
  - redis_mlc 5y ago
    I agree overall. Note that China imports 50% of its food today, so is very vulnerable to famine. Also, several of the old historic empires did collapse from famine: - near the end of the Bronze Age, in Europe and North Africa - the Central and South American empires were either conquered by the Spanish, or the soil ran out of nutrients - there are two jet streams that change latitudes periodically, which changes rainfall or drought. That can help or destroy agriculture. The latter was magnified by the low productivity of crop strains, which were 5,000 years behind Europe in terms of plant breeding. For example, corn was originally looked like a grass with bumps, and didn't have giant ears like today. If you grew corn, initially there was enough for your family and some taxation, but the yield dropped to nothing after a few years as the soil depleted, and whole cities had to move.
- nimos 5y ago
  Iran has been and is continuing to do so.
- roenxi 5y ago
  1. It may well not generate any goodwill. Most things that happen aren't reported on. And people forget quickly. 2. Would it actually help? The root cause of this problem is not that 1 tanker got delayed.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  I don't understand why people always make comments when there's a crisis about how nobody's helping. There's always aid! The question is, why do people not read about it, and declare there isn't any? By no means am I saying the aid is enough, or that it doesn't involve conflicts, that it isn't being wasted or misused, or anything like that. But it is an artificial storyline that the whole world is ignoring any given crisis, that is never accurate. - Iran has been sending fuel via Hezbollah. - The US and Turkey have sent aid to Lebanon's military. - The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US Congress was calling for "prompt and significant action" from the Secretary of State, around the beginning of October. - Greece has sent "humanitarian aid". - The IMF has been talking to the government about a bailout package, off and on for some time. I don't vouch for the accuracy or political slant of the following, but it's an example of what people write/say about Lebanon: "The international community has been providing humanitarian relief, but too much of it ends up siphoned off into the corruption networks that rule Lebanon. Some of the aid is smuggled into Syria, circumventing sanctions against the Assad dictatorship, while turning a considerable profit for criminal enterprises, including Hezbollah. More humanitarian relief is needed, but it should be run through reliable international institutions or through closely monitored non-governmental organizations if it is to support the Lebanese people and not the mafia-like syndicates." A basic problem, obviously, is that different countries and organizations want to help some people and entities in Lebanon, and not others. But it's not an island from humanity.
- steve19 5y ago
  It is a nice thought but that could not happen. When an event like this happens it is because of huge structural failure. Corruption would have played a part. If you brought a tanker or free oil, whose business interest, or tax revenue, would be impacted by an influx of cheap oil? Who is being incentivized not to solve the issue? Where do you dock the ship? Who gets the oil for free but then charges the next user down the supply chain? How can you be sure the majority of the oil does not end up on the black market, exported or not used for grid energy? Twenty years ago the most advanced economy in the world, California, had blackouts due to fraud and corruption. If it can happen in CA it can happen anywhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_electricity_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_ele...
- throwaway984393 5y ago
  Because Lebanon is a pawn in the proxy wars between the US, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. All of them want to help, but only if Lebanon does things "their" way, and not the "other's" way, and none of "them" will allow the "other" to help. And the IMF says their government is not giving enough concessions. It's all pretty fucked up. Foreign intervention is unlikely without government reform. With traditional donors such as Iran, the United States, the United Kingdom and Persian Gulf nations both hesitant to push money into a corrupt system and also dealing with their own economic problems, Lebanon set its hopes on an International Monetary Fund bailout. But after weeks of discussions, there is no agreement in sight to even begin the negotiations. The U.S, the largest donor to the IMF, wants any bailout to come on the condition that there is a diminution of Hezbollah’s power. The U.S is also the largest donor to the Lebanese army, making for a delicate balancing act. “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week. In an unusual move, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last week that Hezbollah would be open to receiving help from the U.S. despite calling it “an enemy” of Lebanon. Pompeo’s remarks followed Nasrallah’s comments that Lebanon had an opportunity to buy fuel from “a friend called Iran in exchange for Lebanese pounds.” The secretary of state dismissed the claims as “unacceptable”, adding that the U.S. will do everything necessary to stop Iran from sending crude oil anywhere. There is little optimism for the future of the IMF talks, which have not even agreed on the balance of losses, let alone the negotiations and have now been stalled. “The government refuses to implement any reform, any prerequisite the IMF had for even continuing the talks,” said Jad Chaaban, an economist at the American University of Beirut. While the political elite argues without much consensus, the refusal to reform is crushing the Lebanese people. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-inside-lebanon-s-crippling-economic-crisis-n1234005 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-insid... (July 2020)
  - montblanc 5y ago
    > “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week" This seems sensible to me; we will help you if you become a friend instead of an enemy.
- hackeraccount 5y ago
  That would be like someone giving the United States 5 Trillion dollars to fix its budget problems. Would it help? Sure. How could it not? Would it also cause more problems? Sure. The problem the US faces isn't a lack of money directly - it's that there's either an unwillingness to make trade offs or a perception that trade offs are not necessary. I'm not an expert on Lebanon but from what I've read I think the problems are not dissimilar. A tanker full of fuel would help Lebanon. Who in Lebanon it would help is at least an open question. In anything except the very short term I think the main problem is one of politics. It's going to be hard for people not directly involved in Lebanese politics to fix those problems.
no_butterscotch 5y ago
> the World Bank has said that Lebanon is experiencing one of the worst economic crises to occur anywhere in the world since the 1800s. Is that real or is the World Bank just exaggerating for effect?
- ThatCaio 5y ago
  "Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from close to US$ 55 billion in 2018 to an estimated US$ 33 billion in 2020. GDP per capita fell by around 40 percent in dollar terms. "
  - rsj_hn 5y ago
    Wow, that is a Great Depression.
  - 8note 5y ago
    Per wiki, the Beirut explosion in 2020 also did some 13 Billion USD in damage, too
  - sharken 5y ago
    Comparing Lebanon to the poorest country in Europe, Moldova, show at least one interesting fact besides the GDP drop. The defence expenditure is more than US$ 2 billion higher per year in Lebanon while it is nearly non-existent in Moldova. It seems absurd to uphold that kind of expenditure, but it's likely a direct consequence of the historical conflict in the region. Source: https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/lebanon/moldova https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/lebanon/moldova
    - wumpus 5y ago
      Moldova has a "frozen conflict" where Russia is holding a fair fraction of their territory hostage. It's less bad than Ukraine, but still a problem.
      - sharken 5y ago
        Thanks for pointing that out, it's not really in the news. So both countries have a long standing conflict in common and sadly neither conflict seems to have any chance of being resolved.
srl 5y ago
Okay, I understand that there's some sort of world-wide supply-chain issue. Recently I've heard about fuel shortages of various shorts. It's unclear how related the mess in Lebanon is, since the article states > Prior to the outages, citizens had for months only been given a few hours of electricity per day and I thought the fuel shortages were a recent phenomenon. Regardless: does anyone have a link to a decent primer on what's going on (regarding supply chains, fuel, and all the other recent economic disruptions)? I'm not interested in the usual politically motivated "just so" stories, just a list of what's happening, what parts are definitely understood, and what parts are not understood.
- throwaway984393 5y ago
  Sorry, do you want to know about the recent fuel shortages? Or do you want to know why the country completely collapsed over a period of 2 years?
  - lazide 5y ago
    This has been in the works since what, the 80s?
    - throwaway984393 5y ago
      You could trace it back to the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. Lebanon supports the Arab states, the Palestinians spill into Lebanon, and fighting continues over various decades (50's, 70's, 80's, 90's), including a civil war that took 16 years, after which point it's sort of Syria, Israel and Hezbollah grappling through Lebanon, of course with the other usual cast of characters (US, UK, Iran, Saudi, and a dozen different rebel groups). But probably the majority of the current crisis stems from the 2006 war.
- pkaye 5y ago
  What I can piece together post the Lebanon war, Saudi Arabia and other gulf states provided substantial aid to Lebanon to reconstruct. But in 2016 Saudi Arabia cut off its aid when relations got spoiled. Lebanon has lots of government corruption so much of aid was wasted. Then there is the explosion last year that set them back even more. Foreign countries want reforms before they will donate further. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_r... https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gulf-aid-to-come-back-pub-82009https:/carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gulf-aid-to-come-back-pub-82009https:/carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gulf-aid-to-come-back-pub-82009 https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gu...
rsj_hn 5y ago
It appears that Lebanon's currency devalued sharply, meaning the nation can no longer afford to buy oil, leading to electricity shortages. Can someone here more knowledgeable about Lebanon's economic history explain why the currency devalued?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- syshum 5y ago
  My guess is someone in their government thought the best way to get the nation out of debt was to start creating trillion dollar coins...... Oh wait that is the USA. Never mind I will come back in a few months when we are talking about the us dollar
  - b0tzzzzzzman 5y ago
    Me too, with my dead on submit comments.
  - imtringued 5y ago
    I don't know why you are focusing on the stupid coins. The idea that we do away with the debt system is insane. The debt ceiling was never used for any fiscal reasons, it's always turned into a political weapon and the consequences are just plain stupid.
    - syshum 5y ago
      I don't have a problem with debt. However outstanding debt should never be greater then GDP, the fed should be barred from buying debt, and government spending should be capped at 20% of GDP
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    Debt is fine if you're a big country. If you're a factory, a bank might decide to not loan you any money if it thinks you're not going to make any profit (e.g. because of inefficiencies, unpredictable raw material costs, better competition) so you can return that loan with interest. If you're the United States of America, you're going to be around for a looong time and the population there are going to continue enterprising and paying tax, so the bank knows you're good for the loan. I guess it's not such a good example since the US can just mint a trillion dollars as you moaned, but that's a coin that no one in the world would refuse, so I guess it's good to be king.
optimalsolver 5y ago
Lebannon apparently not the examplar of antifragility that Nassim Taleb made it out to be.
- MengerSponge 5y ago
  You know how in Dragon Ball and Dragon Ball Z the Saiyans get stronger every time they're almost killed? That's antifragility. Now think about how many times Goku and Vegeta still die in spite of their antifragility. Your bones are antifragile, but they can be broken. Cities and civilizations can be antifragile, but they're still susceptible to collapse given the right forces.
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    Your bones are definitely not anti fragile… it’s a common misconception in fact without modern medicine a compound fracture will not heal right on its own in most cases.
    - MengerSponge 5y ago
      Again, anti fragile does not mean unbreakable. Anti fragile systems are less likely to fail because they get stronger when subjected to reasonable stresses. https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/the-best-exercises-for-your-bones https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/the-best-exer...
      - dogma1138 5y ago
        Bones don’t heal up stronger, and I think you should read the article you’ve linked… it’s about physical exercise to reduce / prevent falls not that it somehow makes your bones stronger. Physical exercise doesn’t make bones stronger, some physical activity may delay them becoming fragile due to old age but overall actual stresses on your skeleton cause stress fractures they don’t turn you into wolverine.
        5y ago
gonzo41 5y ago
You'd think Israel would step up here. Sure, there's LOTs of history between the two, but having a failed state as a neighbor is kind of an own goal. It'd make much more sense for them to assist with the rebuild and build an ally.
- josh_fyi 5y ago
  Israel has offered help. 8n fact, Israel is offering help even if Lebanon does not make peace with Israel or recognize its existence. Aid would be passed through intermediaries https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-offers-lebanon-humanitarian-aid-amid-financial-meltdown/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-offers-lebanon-humanitar...
fouadf 5y ago
Hi, I live in Lebanon We're still getting electricity from the privately owned generators. The main grid has always had shortage, it never provided 24/7, the reliance has always been on the privately owned generators. Due to the severe fuel shortages since the beginning of the year, the main grid provided very little hours, less than 2 hours per day in many cases. The privately owned generators haven't been able to keep up either, we're getting power cuts for several hours during the day, every day. And the fees are increasing. Here's a rundown of the current situation - fuel is rare, queues at stations are horrible, it takes up to 6 hours to get some, violence and accidents there has killed many people - fuel prices have increased 4x since the beginning of this year - currency inflation from $1 = 1,500 LBP to $1=19,000 since late 2019, max reached 23,000, could reach more
- Gil-galad 5y ago
  How about the market for private solar energy systems? Must be experiencing a massive boom
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    Lebanon, "massive boom". Poor choice of words. Or an accidental darkly humourous pun.
  - fouadf 5y ago
    It's starting to kick off, several households are implementing it, it costs $5k+ here which given the current situation isn't the top priority But honestly I do hope we reach a point where private solar and wind take over the main grid and the generators
    - londons_explore 5y ago
      But $10 solar panels enough to charge a phone and laptop presumably are in widespread use?
      - dogma1138 5y ago
nielsbot 5y ago
Time for solar!
rado 5y ago
Excellent vlog series showing the situation on the streets and talking to locals (2020) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw3AY2PcSIw&list=PLN0FlxE6vY5A_iNm9Huxp1nRohg7IxpOA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw3AY2PcSIw&list=PLN0FlxE6vY...

125 points by bryan0 5y ago

Due to Lebanon's 'Mediterranean' climate [1] and long coastline, solar and wind energy could be answer for the future. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Lebanon#/media/File:Koppen-Geiger_Map_LBN_present.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Lebanon#/media/Fi...

bpodgursky 5y ago
You'd need the politicians to not steal it first... natural resources wouldn't do a ton for Lebanon right now.
b0tzzzzzzman 5y ago
Yes we should all have such benefactors as the West to seek a means to overspend for the future. Why not borrow a few trillion from a private bank and build a new means of energy.
chii 5y ago
Infrastructure investments require stable society and trustworthy politician. Lebanon has neither atm. The people there need to over throw the current govt, and remove their own religious prejudices that led to the current state of govt in the first place.

zz865 5y ago

I dont understand why some country can't just send a tanker, the goodwill would be immense.

imtringued 5y ago
Why doesn't every country do balanced trade? The goodwill would be immense and we would pull billions of humans out of poverty into the global middle class. The goodwill would be immense. Humans don't actually want to cooperate.
anonporridge 5y ago
Is goodwill from Lebanon worth a tanker full of fuel? Not that I don't have sympathy for the people suffering, but this is the question anyone with control over that level of wealth would ask.
- base698 5y ago
  Found the MBA.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  There's a cold war in the middle east between Saudi Arabia and Iran right now. Surely getting an entire nation state in the region on your side for the cost of a few oil tankers (of which KSA and Iran have no shortage) is worth it?
  - lazide 5y ago
    KSA subsidized Lebanon for a long time already, but they got fed up with them a few years back.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  The premise that nobody cares enough to send fuel, or an amount of aid comparable in value to a tanker of fuel, is false.
HenryKissinger 5y ago
The last 80 years have taught us a few things: - State collapse is more common than we think, but not impossible to recover from (Germany post WW2, Iraq post 2010?) - The international community is willing to cooperate during major natural disasters (2004 earthquake, Japanese earthquake, Haiti earthquake) - The international community is less willing to cooperate during man-made political disasters with humanitarian consequences (Somalia 1980s, Russia 1990s), though there are notable exceptions (Bosnian War, Kosovo War) - No one really cares about genocides happening in other countries - Successful nation building directed by a foreign power is the exception, not the norm. - Some countries will never achieve prosperity
- XorNot 5y ago
  > - Some countries will never achieve prosperity Seems like a weirdly determinate conclusion for span of time less then one human lifetime.
  - Thorentis 5y ago
    Prosperity is unfortunately a zero sum game. Until we develop the means to fully automate the creation of all of humanity's needs and wants, there will be winners and losers at the national level.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
      That is definitely not true. Many of the things we value the most are found in abundance in all countries, if the society is well organized to achieve these ends. Leisure, food, space to live, friends, peace, safety, etc. There are some few goods whose production is truly limited by our ability to extract raw resources, but these are the exception, not the norm.
      - rsj_hn 5y ago
        This is a good point, but I'd point out that well-organized societies are much rarer (and shorter-lived) than any vein of gold, one of the biggest enemies of having a well-organized society being the politics of envy and resentment as displayed in the post you were replying to. When that type of culture is ascendant, then things are not only zero sum, but often negative-sum, since the party takes a cut of transferring wealth from winners to losers, and often just transfers wealth to itself.
XorNot 5y ago
No famine has ever been caused by the world not growing enough food for everyone.
- gruez 5y ago
  ever? The first entry in the wikipedia article for "list of famines" points to "4.2-kiloyear event", which was apparently global. At that scale it doesn't seem hard for the deficit to negate any meager surplus that non-affected societies can produce. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event
- lwouis 5y ago
  Only recently can people access "the world" goods. In the past there was limited range to provision from outside. Mostly boats and carriages. Famines could then occur because of a bad harvest or a few in a row. Farming has never been a surefire thing!
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    I think that is the point of the comment you're responding to?
  - XorNot 5y ago
    As far back as the Irish potato famine, there was plenty of food - the problem was caused by the political power structures and rent seeking which would not bend an inch to help the peasantry. In the modern era, we have more then enough food to feed everyone: no one goes hungry because there is not enough.
- redis_mlc 5y ago
  I agree overall. Note that China imports 50% of its food today, so is very vulnerable to famine. Also, several of the old historic empires did collapse from famine: - near the end of the Bronze Age, in Europe and North Africa - the Central and South American empires were either conquered by the Spanish, or the soil ran out of nutrients - there are two jet streams that change latitudes periodically, which changes rainfall or drought. That can help or destroy agriculture. The latter was magnified by the low productivity of crop strains, which were 5,000 years behind Europe in terms of plant breeding. For example, corn was originally looked like a grass with bumps, and didn't have giant ears like today. If you grew corn, initially there was enough for your family and some taxation, but the yield dropped to nothing after a few years as the soil depleted, and whole cities had to move.
nimos 5y ago
Iran has been and is continuing to do so.
roenxi 5y ago
1. It may well not generate any goodwill. Most things that happen aren't reported on. And people forget quickly. 2. Would it actually help? The root cause of this problem is not that 1 tanker got delayed.
perl4ever 5y ago
I don't understand why people always make comments when there's a crisis about how nobody's helping. There's always aid! The question is, why do people not read about it, and declare there isn't any? By no means am I saying the aid is enough, or that it doesn't involve conflicts, that it isn't being wasted or misused, or anything like that. But it is an artificial storyline that the whole world is ignoring any given crisis, that is never accurate. - Iran has been sending fuel via Hezbollah. - The US and Turkey have sent aid to Lebanon's military. - The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US Congress was calling for "prompt and significant action" from the Secretary of State, around the beginning of October. - Greece has sent "humanitarian aid". - The IMF has been talking to the government about a bailout package, off and on for some time. I don't vouch for the accuracy or political slant of the following, but it's an example of what people write/say about Lebanon: "The international community has been providing humanitarian relief, but too much of it ends up siphoned off into the corruption networks that rule Lebanon. Some of the aid is smuggled into Syria, circumventing sanctions against the Assad dictatorship, while turning a considerable profit for criminal enterprises, including Hezbollah. More humanitarian relief is needed, but it should be run through reliable international institutions or through closely monitored non-governmental organizations if it is to support the Lebanese people and not the mafia-like syndicates." A basic problem, obviously, is that different countries and organizations want to help some people and entities in Lebanon, and not others. But it's not an island from humanity.
steve19 5y ago
It is a nice thought but that could not happen. When an event like this happens it is because of huge structural failure. Corruption would have played a part. If you brought a tanker or free oil, whose business interest, or tax revenue, would be impacted by an influx of cheap oil? Who is being incentivized not to solve the issue? Where do you dock the ship? Who gets the oil for free but then charges the next user down the supply chain? How can you be sure the majority of the oil does not end up on the black market, exported or not used for grid energy? Twenty years ago the most advanced economy in the world, California, had blackouts due to fraud and corruption. If it can happen in CA it can happen anywhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_electricity_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_ele...
throwaway984393 5y ago
Because Lebanon is a pawn in the proxy wars between the US, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. All of them want to help, but only if Lebanon does things "their" way, and not the "other's" way, and none of "them" will allow the "other" to help. And the IMF says their government is not giving enough concessions. It's all pretty fucked up. Foreign intervention is unlikely without government reform. With traditional donors such as Iran, the United States, the United Kingdom and Persian Gulf nations both hesitant to push money into a corrupt system and also dealing with their own economic problems, Lebanon set its hopes on an International Monetary Fund bailout. But after weeks of discussions, there is no agreement in sight to even begin the negotiations. The U.S, the largest donor to the IMF, wants any bailout to come on the condition that there is a diminution of Hezbollah’s power. The U.S is also the largest donor to the Lebanese army, making for a delicate balancing act. “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week. In an unusual move, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last week that Hezbollah would be open to receiving help from the U.S. despite calling it “an enemy” of Lebanon. Pompeo’s remarks followed Nasrallah’s comments that Lebanon had an opportunity to buy fuel from “a friend called Iran in exchange for Lebanese pounds.” The secretary of state dismissed the claims as “unacceptable”, adding that the U.S. will do everything necessary to stop Iran from sending crude oil anywhere. There is little optimism for the future of the IMF talks, which have not even agreed on the balance of losses, let alone the negotiations and have now been stalled. “The government refuses to implement any reform, any prerequisite the IMF had for even continuing the talks,” said Jad Chaaban, an economist at the American University of Beirut. While the political elite argues without much consensus, the refusal to reform is crushing the Lebanese people. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-inside-lebanon-s-crippling-economic-crisis-n1234005 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-insid... (July 2020)
- montblanc 5y ago
  > “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week" This seems sensible to me; we will help you if you become a friend instead of an enemy.
hackeraccount 5y ago
That would be like someone giving the United States 5 Trillion dollars to fix its budget problems. Would it help? Sure. How could it not? Would it also cause more problems? Sure. The problem the US faces isn't a lack of money directly - it's that there's either an unwillingness to make trade offs or a perception that trade offs are not necessary. I'm not an expert on Lebanon but from what I've read I think the problems are not dissimilar. A tanker full of fuel would help Lebanon. Who in Lebanon it would help is at least an open question. In anything except the very short term I think the main problem is one of politics. It's going to be hard for people not directly involved in Lebanese politics to fix those problems.

no_butterscotch 5y ago

> the World Bank has said that Lebanon is experiencing one of the worst economic crises to occur anywhere in the world since the 1800s. Is that real or is the World Bank just exaggerating for effect?

ThatCaio 5y ago
"Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from close to US$ 55 billion in 2018 to an estimated US$ 33 billion in 2020. GDP per capita fell by around 40 percent in dollar terms. "
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  Wow, that is a Great Depression.
- 8note 5y ago
  Per wiki, the Beirut explosion in 2020 also did some 13 Billion USD in damage, too
- sharken 5y ago
  Comparing Lebanon to the poorest country in Europe, Moldova, show at least one interesting fact besides the GDP drop. The defence expenditure is more than US$ 2 billion higher per year in Lebanon while it is nearly non-existent in Moldova. It seems absurd to uphold that kind of expenditure, but it's likely a direct consequence of the historical conflict in the region. Source: https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/lebanon/moldova https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/lebanon/moldova
  - wumpus 5y ago
    Moldova has a "frozen conflict" where Russia is holding a fair fraction of their territory hostage. It's less bad than Ukraine, but still a problem.
    - sharken 5y ago
      Thanks for pointing that out, it's not really in the news. So both countries have a long standing conflict in common and sadly neither conflict seems to have any chance of being resolved.

srl 5y ago

Okay, I understand that there's some sort of world-wide supply-chain issue. Recently I've heard about fuel shortages of various shorts. It's unclear how related the mess in Lebanon is, since the article states > Prior to the outages, citizens had for months only been given a few hours of electricity per day and I thought the fuel shortages were a recent phenomenon. Regardless: does anyone have a link to a decent primer on what's going on (regarding supply chains, fuel, and all the other recent economic disruptions)? I'm not interested in the usual politically motivated "just so" stories, just a list of what's happening, what parts are definitely understood, and what parts are not understood.

throwaway984393 5y ago
Sorry, do you want to know about the recent fuel shortages? Or do you want to know why the country completely collapsed over a period of 2 years?
- lazide 5y ago
  This has been in the works since what, the 80s?
  - throwaway984393 5y ago
    You could trace it back to the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. Lebanon supports the Arab states, the Palestinians spill into Lebanon, and fighting continues over various decades (50's, 70's, 80's, 90's), including a civil war that took 16 years, after which point it's sort of Syria, Israel and Hezbollah grappling through Lebanon, of course with the other usual cast of characters (US, UK, Iran, Saudi, and a dozen different rebel groups). But probably the majority of the current crisis stems from the 2006 war.
pkaye 5y ago
What I can piece together post the Lebanon war, Saudi Arabia and other gulf states provided substantial aid to Lebanon to reconstruct. But in 2016 Saudi Arabia cut off its aid when relations got spoiled. Lebanon has lots of government corruption so much of aid was wasted. Then there is the explosion last year that set them back even more. Foreign countries want reforms before they will donate further. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_r... https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gulf-aid-to-come-back-pub-82009https:/carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gulf-aid-to-come-back-pub-82009https:/carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gulf-aid-to-come-back-pub-82009 https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/06/09/lebanon-not-expecting-gu...

rsj_hn 5y ago

It appears that Lebanon's currency devalued sharply, meaning the nation can no longer afford to buy oil, leading to electricity shortages. Can someone here more knowledgeable about Lebanon's economic history explain why the currency devalued?

deleted 5y ago
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syshum 5y ago
My guess is someone in their government thought the best way to get the nation out of debt was to start creating trillion dollar coins...... Oh wait that is the USA. Never mind I will come back in a few months when we are talking about the us dollar
- b0tzzzzzzman 5y ago
  Me too, with my dead on submit comments.
- imtringued 5y ago
  I don't know why you are focusing on the stupid coins. The idea that we do away with the debt system is insane. The debt ceiling was never used for any fiscal reasons, it's always turned into a political weapon and the consequences are just plain stupid.
  - syshum 5y ago
    I don't have a problem with debt. However outstanding debt should never be greater then GDP, the fed should be barred from buying debt, and government spending should be capped at 20% of GDP
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  Debt is fine if you're a big country. If you're a factory, a bank might decide to not loan you any money if it thinks you're not going to make any profit (e.g. because of inefficiencies, unpredictable raw material costs, better competition) so you can return that loan with interest. If you're the United States of America, you're going to be around for a looong time and the population there are going to continue enterprising and paying tax, so the bank knows you're good for the loan. I guess it's not such a good example since the US can just mint a trillion dollars as you moaned, but that's a coin that no one in the world would refuse, so I guess it's good to be king.

optimalsolver 5y ago

Lebannon apparently not the examplar of antifragility that Nassim Taleb made it out to be.

MengerSponge 5y ago
You know how in Dragon Ball and Dragon Ball Z the Saiyans get stronger every time they're almost killed? That's antifragility. Now think about how many times Goku and Vegeta still die in spite of their antifragility. Your bones are antifragile, but they can be broken. Cities and civilizations can be antifragile, but they're still susceptible to collapse given the right forces.
- dogma1138 5y ago
  Your bones are definitely not anti fragile… it’s a common misconception in fact without modern medicine a compound fracture will not heal right on its own in most cases.
  - MengerSponge 5y ago
    Again, anti fragile does not mean unbreakable. Anti fragile systems are less likely to fail because they get stronger when subjected to reasonable stresses. https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/the-best-exercises-for-your-bones https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/the-best-exer...
    - dogma1138 5y ago
      Bones don’t heal up stronger, and I think you should read the article you’ve linked… it’s about physical exercise to reduce / prevent falls not that it somehow makes your bones stronger. Physical exercise doesn’t make bones stronger, some physical activity may delay them becoming fragile due to old age but overall actual stresses on your skeleton cause stress fractures they don’t turn you into wolverine.
      - 5y ago

gonzo41 5y ago

You'd think Israel would step up here. Sure, there's LOTs of history between the two, but having a failed state as a neighbor is kind of an own goal. It'd make much more sense for them to assist with the rebuild and build an ally.

josh_fyi 5y ago
Israel has offered help. 8n fact, Israel is offering help even if Lebanon does not make peace with Israel or recognize its existence. Aid would be passed through intermediaries https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-offers-lebanon-humanitarian-aid-amid-financial-meltdown/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-offers-lebanon-humanitar...

fouadf 5y ago

Hi, I live in Lebanon We're still getting electricity from the privately owned generators. The main grid has always had shortage, it never provided 24/7, the reliance has always been on the privately owned generators. Due to the severe fuel shortages since the beginning of the year, the main grid provided very little hours, less than 2 hours per day in many cases. The privately owned generators haven't been able to keep up either, we're getting power cuts for several hours during the day, every day. And the fees are increasing. Here's a rundown of the current situation - fuel is rare, queues at stations are horrible, it takes up to 6 hours to get some, violence and accidents there has killed many people - fuel prices have increased 4x since the beginning of this year - currency inflation from $1 = 1,500 LBP to $1=19,000 since late 2019, max reached 23,000, could reach more

Gil-galad 5y ago
How about the market for private solar energy systems? Must be experiencing a massive boom
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  Lebanon, "massive boom". Poor choice of words. Or an accidental darkly humourous pun.
- fouadf 5y ago
  It's starting to kick off, several households are implementing it, it costs $5k+ here which given the current situation isn't the top priority But honestly I do hope we reach a point where private solar and wind take over the main grid and the generators
  - londons_explore 5y ago
    But $10 solar panels enough to charge a phone and laptop presumably are in widespread use?
    - dogma1138 5y ago

nielsbot 5y ago

Time for solar!

rado 5y ago

Excellent vlog series showing the situation on the streets and talking to locals (2020) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw3AY2PcSIw&list=PLN0FlxE6vY5A_iNm9Huxp1nRohg7IxpOA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw3AY2PcSIw&list=PLN0FlxE6vY...