10 ms·

An Iraqi who saved Norway from oil (2009)

115 points by chad_oliver 5y ago

yunohn 5y ago
Norway is a European country, that no Western gov would colonize or disrupt. This is the primary factor around avoiding “corruption” by oil. Developing countries get baited and coerced into extractive economies that benefit the developed ones - modern colonialism. All this talk around foresight and smarts painfully ignores reality.
- wintermutestwin 5y ago
  Compare and contrast US/Brit actions when: a) Norway nationalizes their oil b)Iran nationalizes their oil.
  - mrDmrTmrJ 5y ago
    The idea that strong currency, due to oil exports, kills a manufacturing sector is named the "Dutch Disease" after the Netherlands experience post 1977. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease So a country without colonial intervention was still severely harmed. I'd argue similar dynamics apply to resource intensive US states - e.g. West Virginia. The article is largely about how an Iraqi helped Norway avoid the same fate which is really cool. Certainly over-throwing the Iranian government was terrible. But the key point is that the core economic problem of a resource sector 'crowding out' productive investment is a completely separate issue that occurs frequently in western countries that feature near zero political interference.
    - wintermutestwin 5y ago
      Thanks for the high value response! I was less trying to make a bumpersticker point and more fishing for interesting perspectives like these to broaden my understanding of complex political/economic issues.
  - MichaelZuo 5y ago
    The obvious difference is that Norway fairly compensated the very few assets on the ground owned by foreign parties at the time. Whereas Iran had massive assets on the ground mostly owned by foreign parties, that were ‘compensated’ at fire sale prices?
    - yunohn 5y ago
      Why were foreign assets on-ground in the first place? When is the last time you heard of a Western country having foreign assets extracting value/resources from within their borders?
      - vimy 5y ago
        France state companies suck their Belgian subsidiaries dry. Energy, banks are the two big ones. They tried the same with KLM, the Dutch airline, with less success.
  - rramadass 5y ago
    Exactly !
  - seventhtiger 5y ago
    Saudi Arabia also nationalized its oil with only positive consequences. How you do it is important. Seizure within weeks vs acquisition over years.
- tw04 5y ago
  So Russia is colonized? Canada? Brazil? Heck the US for that matter? You act as if the middle east is the only collection of countries beholden to oil exports, and the only countries making what would otherwise be considered short-sighted moves based on those exports.
  - markdown 5y ago
    > Canada? Brazil? Heck the US for that matter? Yes to all three. How could you have forgotten the colonisation of North America?
  - yunohn 5y ago
    > is colonized? It’s almost as if you’re being intentionally obtuse. The established term (that I used) is “modern” colonialism - it doesn’t necessarily involve physical colonization, rather systematic external control. Russia has been tussling with the West for a prolonged period now. Regardless, they are the second largest exporter of oil to the USA. (1) Canada is an American, Western country. Not sure why they would fall under my reasoning, which was specifically about non-Western countries. The USA is the one usually leading this oil-hungry warring - it’s even a meme at this point. Brazil has various issues, most stemming from external influences corrupting the local political powers. Oil is just one of them, they are also coerced to deforest their country for European exports. (2) (1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oil-demand-hits-record-high-in-u-s-amid-rising-tensions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oi... (2) https://e360.yale.edu/digest/major-portion-of-brazils-exports-to-europe-linked-to-illegal-deforestation-study-finds https://e360.yale.edu/digest/major-portion-of-brazils-export...
    - tw04 5y ago
      >It’s almost as if you’re being intentionally obtuse. The established term (that I used) is “modern” colonialism - it doesn’t necessarily involve physical colonization, rather systematic external control. I'll ignore the part where you started off by attacking me and point out: I obviously wasn't saying any of the countries you outlined were LITERALLY colonies, so don't imply I did. Thanks. >Russia has been tussling with the West for a prolonged period now. Regardless, they are the second largest exporter of oil to the USA. (1) Right... their entire economy is based on "extractive economies". >Canada is an American, Western country. Not sure why they would fall under my reasoning, which was specifically about non-Western countries. The USA is the one usually leading this oil-hungry warring - it’s even a meme at this point. Again, their economy is based on "extractive economies" - Canada is entirely beholden to exporting natural resources to western nations, and they are one of the so-called "western" countries you claim this doesn't happen to. >Brazil has various issues, most stemming from external influences corrupting the local political powers. Oil is just one of them, they are also coerced to deforest their country for European exports. (2) So.... a western nation subjected to systematic extraction?
- rramadass 5y ago
  You are quite right. However, we cannot also completely deny that they have had some foresight/smarts (and a large dose of luck) in managing their Oil boom.
somedangedname 5y ago
As a citizen of resource rich Australia this story of foresight and self-determination in a nation just about makes me weep.
- mensetmanusman 5y ago
  “ But imagine how large our stock pile of toilet paper could be!”
- drekipus 5y ago
  What is this comment even meant to convey? The post is about a person who has foresignt and self-determination, what is Australia meant to do about it? Further, Australia is a lot more isolated than Norway. (Australian BTW)
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    > The post is about a person who has foresignt and self-determination, what is Australia meant to do about it? Australia has done the opposite with their (our? I'm an ex-pat) natural resources.
  - AlexCoventry 5y ago
    I think it's meant to convey grief that Australia has allowed itself to be exploited by foreign miners, and waste the wealth that its natural resources could have generated.
    - bobthepanda 5y ago
      hasn't Australia consistently had uninterrupted economic growth? Australia has the highest median household wealth of any country in the world. https://www.statista.com/chart/19651/countries-with-highest-per-capita-average-and-median-wealth/ https://www.statista.com/chart/19651/countries-with-highest-...
      - AlexCoventry 5y ago
rramadass 5y ago
Great Article; What a serendipitous and fortunate occurrence for Norway ! Norwegians need to erect monuments to this guy and help other countries like he helped them.
mcdonje 5y ago
Amazing story!
dredmorbius 5y ago
NPR's Planet Money also did an excellent segment on Farouk Al-Kasim, back in 2011. Text article and audio below: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/09/06/140110346/how-to-avoid-the-oil-curse https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/09/06/140110346/how-...
Rendello 5y ago
Related, a recent video from PolyMatter titled Why Oil Doesn't Corrupt Norway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu8ClwrTpbA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu8ClwrTpbA
- adventured 5y ago
  Canada, US, China Three of the six largest oil producers. Norway's lack of suffering from the so called resource curse isn't that special. What's special about Norway is their privilege to control so much oil with such a small population, quite similar to the sheiks of the Middle East (who have often made their people quite wealthy compared to their less oil fortunate neighbors, as in the case of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or UAE). No coincidence Norway is also still a backwards monarchy that installs a king as head of state after a thousand years.
  - AlexCoventry 5y ago
    Alberta's sovereign wealth fund is worth $18B according to the video, IIRC, whereas Norway's is worth $1.45T.
    - ayngg 5y ago
      A big difference is that Norway is a sovereign state and didn't have to deal with federal and inter-provincial politics like Alberta did. I have my doubts about whether or not a federal government that has done something like the National Energy Program would allow a province within their country to hold a sovereign wealth fund worth hundreds of billions, or even over a trillion dollars.
      - thedmstdmstdmst 5y ago
        > would allow a province within their country to hold a sovereign wealth fund worth hundreds of billions, or even over a trillion dollars. This is Alberta we are talking about? If in your hypothetical the Federal Government didn't mess it up the Province would.
AlexCoventry 5y ago
How could al-Kasim be so sure that Norway would find oil?
- dmoy 5y ago
  He was not sure. They moved for family reasons, as described in one of the first few paragraphs of the article.
  - AlexCoventry 5y ago
    He was telling everyone who would listen that Norway would find oil, and needed to prepare itself. > His was a lonely, contrarian voice. After examining exploration results, he wrote a report that warned Norway was sleeping, that even though no one had found oil yet, it was only a question of time. And time was short: the country’s leaders needed to prepare Norway to become an oil nation, but they were doing nothing. “I was a constant reminder that they were doing everything wrong,” al-Kasim says pointedly. Only his closest colleagues would listen.
    - MichaelZuo 5y ago
      I imagine he came to that conclusion only after he reviewed the exploration reports, maps, and other internal documents within the ministries.
    - dgemm 5y ago
      I think he recognized from the exploration results that the local geology was very favorable even if they hadn't hit actual oil yet.
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  North Sea oil exploration dates to the 1850s. The modern era began ~1964 with commercial offshore drilling. That was four years before al-Kasim stopped by the office in 1968. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil
fidesomnes 5y ago
boring and fake
DarkmSparks 5y ago
As a complete tangent, I find it quite sad that because of things like the ft paywall, stories like this that are written today will be lost to the sands of time.
password4321 5y ago
This story was mentioned on a related discussion 2.5 weeks ago: · Norway is wealthy because of oil. Can it give up fossil fuels? | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28576597#28577318 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28576597#28577318 | 50 points | 66 comments The previous discussion was also spawned in similar fashion: · https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19594153 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19594153 | 347 points | April 7, 2019 | 129 comments · Battery Reality: There’s Nothing Better Than Lithium-Ion Coming Soon | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19590854#19593054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19590854#19593054 | 443 points | April 6, 2019 | 249 comments
simorley 5y ago
Does Norway use most of their oil money for social media adverts? There is another self-congratulatory norway article on the frontpage. "Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28777672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28777672 There was another one just a few days ago. "Norway bans gas cars in 2025 but trends point toward 100%EV sales as early April" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28629184 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28629184 There have been so much nonsense about norway peddled online for the past decade that I roll my eyes when I read the headline.
- rramadass 5y ago
  You are being uncharitable here. While there might be a lot of nonsense peddled around, this article does not belong to that category. It is about one man who saw something that others didn't and convinced them to heed his advice to the betterment of the entire Nation.
neonate 5y ago
https://archive.md/lXaze https://archive.md/lXaze
heurisko 5y ago
The UK also benefitted from North Sea oil, but unlike the Norwegians, we don't have a sovereign wealth fund. Some suggest the money raised went towards tax cuts and contributed to house price inflation. [1] Although I'm not sure about house price inflation, as there has been similar inflation in Canada and Australia. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/north-sea-oil-money-uk-norwegians-fund https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/north-...
- billyruffian 5y ago
  It really rescued Britain from the financial mire it found itself in the mid 70s when the country was bust and had to go the IMF. It paid for the economic restructuring which was desperately needed. Dominic Sandbrook's books (Seasons in the Sun: Battle for Britain, 1974-1979 and Who Dares Wins: Britain, 1979-1982) cover this in some detail.

115 points by chad_oliver 5y ago

Norway is a European country, that no Western gov would colonize or disrupt. This is the primary factor around avoiding “corruption” by oil. Developing countries get baited and coerced into extractive economies that benefit the developed ones - modern colonialism. All this talk around foresight and smarts painfully ignores reality.

wintermutestwin 5y ago
Compare and contrast US/Brit actions when: a) Norway nationalizes their oil b)Iran nationalizes their oil.
- mrDmrTmrJ 5y ago
  The idea that strong currency, due to oil exports, kills a manufacturing sector is named the "Dutch Disease" after the Netherlands experience post 1977. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease So a country without colonial intervention was still severely harmed. I'd argue similar dynamics apply to resource intensive US states - e.g. West Virginia. The article is largely about how an Iraqi helped Norway avoid the same fate which is really cool. Certainly over-throwing the Iranian government was terrible. But the key point is that the core economic problem of a resource sector 'crowding out' productive investment is a completely separate issue that occurs frequently in western countries that feature near zero political interference.
  - wintermutestwin 5y ago
    Thanks for the high value response! I was less trying to make a bumpersticker point and more fishing for interesting perspectives like these to broaden my understanding of complex political/economic issues.
- MichaelZuo 5y ago
  The obvious difference is that Norway fairly compensated the very few assets on the ground owned by foreign parties at the time. Whereas Iran had massive assets on the ground mostly owned by foreign parties, that were ‘compensated’ at fire sale prices?
  - yunohn 5y ago
    Why were foreign assets on-ground in the first place? When is the last time you heard of a Western country having foreign assets extracting value/resources from within their borders?
    - vimy 5y ago
      France state companies suck their Belgian subsidiaries dry. Energy, banks are the two big ones. They tried the same with KLM, the Dutch airline, with less success.
- rramadass 5y ago
  Exactly !
- seventhtiger 5y ago
  Saudi Arabia also nationalized its oil with only positive consequences. How you do it is important. Seizure within weeks vs acquisition over years.
tw04 5y ago
So Russia is colonized? Canada? Brazil? Heck the US for that matter? You act as if the middle east is the only collection of countries beholden to oil exports, and the only countries making what would otherwise be considered short-sighted moves based on those exports.
- markdown 5y ago
  > Canada? Brazil? Heck the US for that matter? Yes to all three. How could you have forgotten the colonisation of North America?
- yunohn 5y ago
  > is colonized? It’s almost as if you’re being intentionally obtuse. The established term (that I used) is “modern” colonialism - it doesn’t necessarily involve physical colonization, rather systematic external control. Russia has been tussling with the West for a prolonged period now. Regardless, they are the second largest exporter of oil to the USA. (1) Canada is an American, Western country. Not sure why they would fall under my reasoning, which was specifically about non-Western countries. The USA is the one usually leading this oil-hungry warring - it’s even a meme at this point. Brazil has various issues, most stemming from external influences corrupting the local political powers. Oil is just one of them, they are also coerced to deforest their country for European exports. (2) (1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oil-demand-hits-record-high-in-u-s-amid-rising-tensions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oi... (2) https://e360.yale.edu/digest/major-portion-of-brazils-exports-to-europe-linked-to-illegal-deforestation-study-finds https://e360.yale.edu/digest/major-portion-of-brazils-export...
  - tw04 5y ago
    >It’s almost as if you’re being intentionally obtuse. The established term (that I used) is “modern” colonialism - it doesn’t necessarily involve physical colonization, rather systematic external control. I'll ignore the part where you started off by attacking me and point out: I obviously wasn't saying any of the countries you outlined were LITERALLY colonies, so don't imply I did. Thanks. >Russia has been tussling with the West for a prolonged period now. Regardless, they are the second largest exporter of oil to the USA. (1) Right... their entire economy is based on "extractive economies". >Canada is an American, Western country. Not sure why they would fall under my reasoning, which was specifically about non-Western countries. The USA is the one usually leading this oil-hungry warring - it’s even a meme at this point. Again, their economy is based on "extractive economies" - Canada is entirely beholden to exporting natural resources to western nations, and they are one of the so-called "western" countries you claim this doesn't happen to. >Brazil has various issues, most stemming from external influences corrupting the local political powers. Oil is just one of them, they are also coerced to deforest their country for European exports. (2) So.... a western nation subjected to systematic extraction?
rramadass 5y ago
You are quite right. However, we cannot also completely deny that they have had some foresight/smarts (and a large dose of luck) in managing their Oil boom.

somedangedname 5y ago

As a citizen of resource rich Australia this story of foresight and self-determination in a nation just about makes me weep.

mensetmanusman 5y ago
“ But imagine how large our stock pile of toilet paper could be!”
drekipus 5y ago
What is this comment even meant to convey? The post is about a person who has foresignt and self-determination, what is Australia meant to do about it? Further, Australia is a lot more isolated than Norway. (Australian BTW)
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  > The post is about a person who has foresignt and self-determination, what is Australia meant to do about it? Australia has done the opposite with their (our? I'm an ex-pat) natural resources.
- AlexCoventry 5y ago
  I think it's meant to convey grief that Australia has allowed itself to be exploited by foreign miners, and waste the wealth that its natural resources could have generated.
  - bobthepanda 5y ago
    hasn't Australia consistently had uninterrupted economic growth? Australia has the highest median household wealth of any country in the world. https://www.statista.com/chart/19651/countries-with-highest-per-capita-average-and-median-wealth/ https://www.statista.com/chart/19651/countries-with-highest-...
    - AlexCoventry 5y ago

rramadass 5y ago

Great Article; What a serendipitous and fortunate occurrence for Norway ! Norwegians need to erect monuments to this guy and help other countries like he helped them.

mcdonje 5y ago

Amazing story!

dredmorbius 5y ago

NPR's Planet Money also did an excellent segment on Farouk Al-Kasim, back in 2011. Text article and audio below: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/09/06/140110346/how-to-avoid-the-oil-curse https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/09/06/140110346/how-...

Rendello 5y ago

Related, a recent video from PolyMatter titled Why Oil Doesn't Corrupt Norway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu8ClwrTpbA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu8ClwrTpbA

adventured 5y ago
Canada, US, China Three of the six largest oil producers. Norway's lack of suffering from the so called resource curse isn't that special. What's special about Norway is their privilege to control so much oil with such a small population, quite similar to the sheiks of the Middle East (who have often made their people quite wealthy compared to their less oil fortunate neighbors, as in the case of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or UAE). No coincidence Norway is also still a backwards monarchy that installs a king as head of state after a thousand years.
- AlexCoventry 5y ago
  Alberta's sovereign wealth fund is worth $18B according to the video, IIRC, whereas Norway's is worth $1.45T.
  - ayngg 5y ago
    A big difference is that Norway is a sovereign state and didn't have to deal with federal and inter-provincial politics like Alberta did. I have my doubts about whether or not a federal government that has done something like the National Energy Program would allow a province within their country to hold a sovereign wealth fund worth hundreds of billions, or even over a trillion dollars.
    - thedmstdmstdmst 5y ago
      > would allow a province within their country to hold a sovereign wealth fund worth hundreds of billions, or even over a trillion dollars. This is Alberta we are talking about? If in your hypothetical the Federal Government didn't mess it up the Province would.

AlexCoventry 5y ago

How could al-Kasim be so sure that Norway would find oil?

dmoy 5y ago
He was not sure. They moved for family reasons, as described in one of the first few paragraphs of the article.
- AlexCoventry 5y ago
  He was telling everyone who would listen that Norway would find oil, and needed to prepare itself. > His was a lonely, contrarian voice. After examining exploration results, he wrote a report that warned Norway was sleeping, that even though no one had found oil yet, it was only a question of time. And time was short: the country’s leaders needed to prepare Norway to become an oil nation, but they were doing nothing. “I was a constant reminder that they were doing everything wrong,” al-Kasim says pointedly. Only his closest colleagues would listen.
  - MichaelZuo 5y ago
    I imagine he came to that conclusion only after he reviewed the exploration reports, maps, and other internal documents within the ministries.
  - dgemm 5y ago
    I think he recognized from the exploration results that the local geology was very favorable even if they hadn't hit actual oil yet.
dredmorbius 5y ago
North Sea oil exploration dates to the 1850s. The modern era began ~1964 with commercial offshore drilling. That was four years before al-Kasim stopped by the office in 1968. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil

fidesomnes 5y ago

boring and fake

DarkmSparks 5y ago

As a complete tangent, I find it quite sad that because of things like the ft paywall, stories like this that are written today will be lost to the sands of time.

password4321 5y ago

This story was mentioned on a related discussion 2.5 weeks ago: · Norway is wealthy because of oil. Can it give up fossil fuels? | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28576597#28577318 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28576597#28577318 | 50 points | 66 comments The previous discussion was also spawned in similar fashion: · https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19594153 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19594153 | 347 points | April 7, 2019 | 129 comments · Battery Reality: There’s Nothing Better Than Lithium-Ion Coming Soon | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19590854#19593054 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19590854#19593054 | 443 points | April 6, 2019 | 249 comments

simorley 5y ago

Does Norway use most of their oil money for social media adverts? There is another self-congratulatory norway article on the frontpage. "Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28777672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28777672 There was another one just a few days ago. "Norway bans gas cars in 2025 but trends point toward 100%EV sales as early April" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28629184 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28629184 There have been so much nonsense about norway peddled online for the past decade that I roll my eyes when I read the headline.

rramadass 5y ago
You are being uncharitable here. While there might be a lot of nonsense peddled around, this article does not belong to that category. It is about one man who saw something that others didn't and convinced them to heed his advice to the betterment of the entire Nation.

neonate 5y ago

https://archive.md/lXaze https://archive.md/lXaze

heurisko 5y ago

The UK also benefitted from North Sea oil, but unlike the Norwegians, we don't have a sovereign wealth fund. Some suggest the money raised went towards tax cuts and contributed to house price inflation. [1] Although I'm not sure about house price inflation, as there has been similar inflation in Canada and Australia. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/north-sea-oil-money-uk-norwegians-fund https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/north-...

billyruffian 5y ago
It really rescued Britain from the financial mire it found itself in the mid 70s when the country was bust and had to go the IMF. It paid for the economic restructuring which was desperately needed. Dominic Sandbrook's books (Seasons in the Sun: Battle for Britain, 1974-1979 and Who Dares Wins: Britain, 1979-1982) cover this in some detail.