6 ms·

Yep. Economists and meteorologists. What they try to predict is sort of like trying to predict where the disc will land in Plinko [1]. Neither of them have a cl

by _wldu 5y ago

Yep. Economists and meteorologists. What they try to predict is sort of like trying to predict where the disc will land in Plinko [1]. Neither of them have a clue until it actually happens... "Our models showed the disc going the other way (especially the European Model), but we were wrong again. Tune in tomorrow while we talk fast and act confident again." [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_Price_Is_Right_pricing_games#Plinko https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_Price_Is_Right_pri...

fulafel 5y ago
Meteorologists have it easy, because weather doesn't react to the forecast and modify its behaviour to invalidate it.
- shrimp_emoji 5y ago
  Self-aware weather with neurosis...
- cubano 5y ago
  Personally, I always love the "50% chance of rain" forecast as it perfectly describes that they have no idea if its going to rain or not, but yet sounds so scientific and official.
  - posco 5y ago
    Predicting 50% can be validated: if I say a coin will be heads 50% of the time, I know more than nothing: I know more than someone who incorrectly claims it will be heads 75% of the time. And we can quantify in various ways how much better the 50% prediction is than the 75% prediction.
  - Stratoscope 5y ago
    That's actually not what "50% chance of rain" means. Here's a pretty good explanation: https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really-mean/ https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really... And many more: https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain
  - elcomet 5y ago
    That is absolutely not "we have no idea". It's a very precise prediction, not like a [10%-90%] range. If you look at all their 50% prediction, the half of it should be rain and half should be no rain. This is what this number tells you.
- WalterBright 5y ago
  A butterfly flapping its wings would disagree with that.
adrianN 5y ago
Meteorologists are pretty good at their job.
- Cacti 5y ago
  Well, there has been a little-noticed revolution in meteorology in the US in the past 15 years, driven by improved simulations and measurement systems (mostly funded by the federal government). Our predictive capability is well over 10x improved from just the late 90s when it was still quite poor.
- Barrin92 5y ago
  within a limited time horizon that is. IIRC meteorological forecasts are about 80% accurate a few days in, 50% accurate about two weeks into the future, and after that of not much use. Economics of course is often expected to make much stronger claims, people have expectations of it that resemble Asimov's psychohistory despite the fact that there is no science that manages to tame that level of complexity. I think it was Tyler Cowen who said once that economics is more useful as a tool to clarify thought rather than a tool to make predictions. People just have the wrong expectation of what economics is.
  - HPsquared 5y ago
    Meteorology is much easier because the act of working out what the weather will do next, won't have an effect on weather. Not so in economics! My intuition says there's probably a kind of uncertainty principle or incompleteness theorem at play in economics.
    - adrianN 5y ago
      It works the other way too. If everybody believes that your model is correct, the chances are very good that its predictions actually become true.
      - HPsquared 5y ago
        That's the driving force behind a lot of religions and other traditions.
lottin 5y ago
Economists are not trying to predict anything. Some economists do make predictions, but economics is not about making predictions.
- edflsafoiewq 5y ago
  What is it about then?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - neilknowsbest 5y ago
    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they understand about what they imagine they can design” -- Hayek
    - andresgaitan 5y ago
      Excellent quote
  - lottin 5y ago
    Same as any scientific endeavour, studying a particular phenomenon, which in the case of economics is the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services.
    - edflsafoiewq 5y ago
      It is in the ability to predict novel situations that understanding is tested.
      - lottin 5y ago
        Not really. For example, a model can accurately explain variable X as a function of Z, Y but if Z and Y are exogenous variables, i.e. outside of the scope of the model, then the future behaviour of X cannot be known, despite the fact that we may understand very well the mechanisms by which Z and Y cause X.
hourislate 5y ago
What I find amazing is that people can make careers (Economists and Meteorologists) out of guessing and being wrong most of the time. Anyone with a real job would get fired within the first month if they had the same record of performance.
- andresgaitan 5y ago
  Excellent.
Mikeb85 5y ago
The problem is economists who say things in the public sphere are heavily scrutinized and criticised and feel the need to 'prove' their theories. Also, because of the pay factor, many great economists go make millions working for banks and hedge funds. Economists know, economics can predict it, but for reasons, it doesn't end up as public knowledge.

by _wldu 5y ago

fulafel 5y ago

Meteorologists have it easy, because weather doesn't react to the forecast and modify its behaviour to invalidate it.

shrimp_emoji 5y ago
Self-aware weather with neurosis...
cubano 5y ago
Personally, I always love the "50% chance of rain" forecast as it perfectly describes that they have no idea if its going to rain or not, but yet sounds so scientific and official.
- posco 5y ago
  Predicting 50% can be validated: if I say a coin will be heads 50% of the time, I know more than nothing: I know more than someone who incorrectly claims it will be heads 75% of the time. And we can quantify in various ways how much better the 50% prediction is than the 75% prediction.
- Stratoscope 5y ago
  That's actually not what "50% chance of rain" means. Here's a pretty good explanation: https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really-mean/ https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really... And many more: https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain
- elcomet 5y ago
  That is absolutely not "we have no idea". It's a very precise prediction, not like a [10%-90%] range. If you look at all their 50% prediction, the half of it should be rain and half should be no rain. This is what this number tells you.
WalterBright 5y ago
A butterfly flapping its wings would disagree with that.

adrianN 5y ago

Meteorologists are pretty good at their job.

Cacti 5y ago
Well, there has been a little-noticed revolution in meteorology in the US in the past 15 years, driven by improved simulations and measurement systems (mostly funded by the federal government). Our predictive capability is well over 10x improved from just the late 90s when it was still quite poor.
Barrin92 5y ago
within a limited time horizon that is. IIRC meteorological forecasts are about 80% accurate a few days in, 50% accurate about two weeks into the future, and after that of not much use. Economics of course is often expected to make much stronger claims, people have expectations of it that resemble Asimov's psychohistory despite the fact that there is no science that manages to tame that level of complexity. I think it was Tyler Cowen who said once that economics is more useful as a tool to clarify thought rather than a tool to make predictions. People just have the wrong expectation of what economics is.
- HPsquared 5y ago
  Meteorology is much easier because the act of working out what the weather will do next, won't have an effect on weather. Not so in economics! My intuition says there's probably a kind of uncertainty principle or incompleteness theorem at play in economics.
  - adrianN 5y ago
    It works the other way too. If everybody believes that your model is correct, the chances are very good that its predictions actually become true.
    - HPsquared 5y ago
      That's the driving force behind a lot of religions and other traditions.

lottin 5y ago

Economists are not trying to predict anything. Some economists do make predictions, but economics is not about making predictions.

edflsafoiewq 5y ago
What is it about then?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- neilknowsbest 5y ago
  “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they understand about what they imagine they can design” -- Hayek
  - andresgaitan 5y ago
    Excellent quote
- lottin 5y ago
  Same as any scientific endeavour, studying a particular phenomenon, which in the case of economics is the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services.
  - edflsafoiewq 5y ago
    It is in the ability to predict novel situations that understanding is tested.
    - lottin 5y ago
      Not really. For example, a model can accurately explain variable X as a function of Z, Y but if Z and Y are exogenous variables, i.e. outside of the scope of the model, then the future behaviour of X cannot be known, despite the fact that we may understand very well the mechanisms by which Z and Y cause X.

hourislate 5y ago

What I find amazing is that people can make careers (Economists and Meteorologists) out of guessing and being wrong most of the time. Anyone with a real job would get fired within the first month if they had the same record of performance.

andresgaitan 5y ago
Excellent.

Mikeb85 5y ago

The problem is economists who say things in the public sphere are heavily scrutinized and criticised and feel the need to 'prove' their theories. Also, because of the pay factor, many great economists go make millions working for banks and hedge funds. Economists know, economics can predict it, but for reasons, it doesn't end up as public knowledge.