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I'm in the sunny state, looking to install 15-20 kW solar panels. It's anything but dirt cheap. The quotes you see in the news (like 1.04c/kWh) are for huge ind
by bufferoverflow 5y ago
I'm in the sunny state, looking to install 15-20 kW solar panels. It's anything but dirt cheap. The quotes you see in the news (like 1.04c/kWh) are for huge industrial installations in deserts in some countries with close to no regulations.
My residential solar will be ridiculously expensive, probably close to $20K.
- 01100011 5y agoFrom society's perspective, isn't it better if the solar panels all end up in large installations where they can benefit from economies of scale as far as maintenance, infrastructure, and installations costs go? As long as there is an empty warehouse rooftop in the sunbelt, there shouldn't be a residential solar install occuring. I say this as someone who had a solar install on his old house, but still, the costs should have been such that it discouraged me and encouraged industrial installs.
- epistasis 5y agoThere are even higher benefits by reducing the transmission and distribution requirements. T&D is hugely expensive, and local installs of solar reduces costs for the neighbors of whomever get solar installed. Industrial installs are encouraged by utilities because they increase dependence on expensive, centralized, infrastructure. And for regulated utilities, this sort of infrastructure expense is easy to rate-base and increase profits. But independent modelers that have been looking at fine-grained grid modeling, like Christopher Clack, have found huge cost savings by deploying massive amounts of storage and solar at residential and C&I locations first in the coming years, before doing larger industrial scar installations.
- aledalgrande 5y agoYep 5% of electricity just wasted on resistance [1]. Also all the dangerous/expensive components of an electrical grid could be reduced, if energy was more decentralized. Don't think we're any close to that though. PS: it's also a harder system to attack for malicious operators. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#Losses https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#Lo...
- MaxBarraclough 5y ago> local installs of solar reduces costs for the neighbors of whomever get solar installed How's that?
- Ekaros 5y agoWill it reduce T&D? You still need some capacity for times when solar is not available. And cost doesn't really come from use, but infra existing. Just like Internet, after you have hardware and lines the use is somewhat marginal. Ofc, local storage is an option, but will it be cheaper and safer than what we currently have? 20-30+ year old battery installations left to operate and just hang there don't look too promising to me...
- epistasis 5y agoT&D must be sized for the peak of usage, meaning that most of the capacity sits idle, except for the extreme situations. If that peak is reduced, T&D upgrades and expansions are delayed as our energy demand grows, and all the equipment is used more efficiently. (And just as transmission has been neglected in the US for a long time, so has distribution, and we are going to need a ton of upgrades as energy demand grows while we electrify our energy usage.) In nearly every market, energy use peaks at mid-day, just as solar is peaking. So distributed solar is a peak-shaving system, whereas centralized utility solar still requires the same big peak. Distributed storage reduces both troughs and peaks, and makes T&D even more efficient.
- 01100011 5y agoSo you're suggesting that commercial users use less electricity in during peak illuminance than residential? I don't buy that. If you want to place the solar where the electricity is being consumed between 10am - 2pm you're going to put it on a commercial rooftop.
- epistasis 5y agoCommercial rooftop, residential rooftop, doesn't matter much at the geographic scale of grids. Certainly doesn't hurt to put it on commercial roofs though! And since those are often flat, it's probably a lot safer. Check out the map of electrical infrastructure in California: https://cecgis-caenergy.opendata.arcgis.com/apps/california-electric-infrastructure-app/explore https://cecgis-caenergy.opendata.arcgis.com/apps/california-... You'll see that on the scale of substations, industry is right next to residential, and virtually indistinguishable. Consider 500MW placed on the roofs of homes in San Jose, versus 500MW in a somewhat close green field build. The distant green field build is going to send every single kWh over transmission lines. Where as close to 0 kWh of the residential solar would hit transmission, meaning that all transmission requirements are lessened, as are distribution requirements.
- goodpoint 5y ago> isn't it better if the solar panels all end up in large installations where they can benefit from economies of scale The opposite: the closer you place production and consumption the better. Less energy wasted in transportation, less costs for infrastructure maintenance, less risk of widespread outages. However, decentralizing access to solar energy goes against the interest of energy companies, the gas industry, the nuclear industry and, consequently, the political class.
- TeMPOraL 5y ago> less costs for infrastructure maintenance Not sure about that. In general it's centralization that reduces maintenance costs. Centralizing in terms of location lets you use bigger, more efficient hardware, and gives you economies of scale. Centralizing ownership reduces administrative costs and allows for savings not possible with distributed ownership. I do see the various benefits of everyone running their own energy production, but costs and reliability aren't them.
- goodpoint 5y agoScale and network effects are complex and non-linear and need to be understood beyond simplistic slogans. The efficiency of solar panels stays the same with the number of panels deployed next to each other. The infrastructure to transport electricity (pylons, cabling, transformers) becomes more expensive with increasing capacity. Less centralization requires less transport.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- aero-glide2 5y ago$20k for 20kW including installation and inverter and all wiring? That's really cheap, usually its 2x that.
- epmatsw 5y agoYeah. And payoff times are like 12-15 years. It sure doesn’t seem cheap here.
- llamataboot 5y agoBut what’s the cost of the externalities of non-renewable energy? Solar isn’t perfect, but at this point I’d say it’s actually cheaper than coal (still nowhere close to nuclear) once we talk about actual costs of using it to make energy.
- post_break 5y agoIn the short run sure. But electricity isn't going to get cheaper. Think of it like prepaying your electricity bill for 15 years, and then after that, it's free.
- temp8964 5y agoYes. I have consulted with two solar companies. I need 25 year loan for the solar panels to have solar power to cover my monthly electricity bill.
- nerbert 5y agoThat sounds expensive. How does this compare to the offering of Ikea in Europe? https://www.ikea.com/be/fr/customer-service/product-support/solar-panels/ https://www.ikea.com/be/fr/customer-service/product-support/... The prices include taxes & installation, and it's probably not the best deal.
- bufferoverflow 5y agoYour link shows 4100€ per 3.3 kW. That's $1462 per kW. Which is pretty much what I see in the US.
- fy20 5y agoI expect you can find installers cheaper than IKEA. I got quotes for a 8kW system at the beginning of this year, and prices were €0.7 - €0.9 per watt, before incentives.
- chadaustin 5y ago20 KW sounds way above average for a single home. $1 / Watt sounds about right, though.
- thinkcontext 5y agoThat would be an awesome price even if it's after the federal tax credit. Here's a link to average prices by system size, that's way under even for the smaller size. https://news.energysage.com/how-much-does-the-average-solar-panel-installation-cost-in-the-u-s/ https://news.energysage.com/how-much-does-the-average-solar-... Also rooftop solar is 2-3x the cost of utility scale solar.
- Brakenshire 5y agoFor rooftop you’re not paying for the solar, you’re paying for the scaffolding, design and fitting for your particular roof, retrofitted electric work, marketing, permits etc.
- dd36 5y agoBut still cheaper than supporting the utility’s transmission and distribution infrastructure with $150/kWh storage.
- TedDoesntTalk 5y agoI don’t understand. How is paying $10,000 or more cheaper than using the electricity provided by my local electric company? The break even point is probably 5 years if you really can install everything but $10,000. The opportunity cost of that $10,000 is, let’s say 5% per year on avg, or $2500 over 5 years (without compounding which would skew this even further against panels)
- 1123581321 5y agoRight, it just depends on the numbers. Taxes and credits have a lot to do with it. For example, a $10k (after credits) system might save at averaged $1200/year accounting for production lost, increasing a bit over time due to utility hikes. After 20 years, assuming the system is now worthless, that will compare similarly to an 8% stock market return plus initial capital after capital gains taxes. The solar system would return in a narrower range of performance than the stock market return.
- 5y ago
- layoric 5y ago15-20kW? How big is your home/electricity consumption? I paid $7.5K USD ($10K AUD) for 5.9kW panels (5kW inverter) only 2.5 years ago, which I still think is pretty good. In summer I generate 40kWh a day, winter down to ~23kWh (AU is lucky though in this regard), which nearly always exceeds my home usage. 20kW of panels is huge, at least 60+ panels + I'm guessing multiple large inverters or lots of micro inverters. $1/watt installed is really cheap IMO at this scale residential.
- novok 5y agoI'm guessing they have really bad weather at certain times, so they need to over provision.
- birdman3131 5y agoI am running about 2100kw/month (about 70/day) and we are not cooling all rooms. I wish I was not renting as I would insulate the hell out of an owned home. (I would also install solar but that's a different issue.)
- megablast 5y agoMaybe a while I have 300w to run a fridge and laptop, and do fine.
- epistasis 5y ago$1/W is not a bad price! For 25 years, at 20% capacity factor, that will generate 96kWh a day, for a total of 876MWh. That's 2.3 c/kWh, not accounting for the time value of money. Call it 4c or 5c/kWh, if you take out a loan rather than paying up front. I dont know of any utility thag charges that little for electricity. Of course, 96kWh/day is pretty high on the curve of household energy consumption, so most US customers wont get your economy of scale.
- bufferoverflow 5y agoI think you're confused with the rated wattage (perfect angle, noon, at the equator) with the actual produced wattage. You will never generate 96kWh/day from a 15-20 kW system.
- dd36 5y agoUh, we get 60kWh a day in AZ with our 10kW system.
- Mountain_Skies 5y agoGeorgia Power charges USD$0.01/kWh for overnight residential electric vehicle charging but that's a pretty niche use case, at least now.
- Scoundreller 5y agoWill they know if half my home is running off my car while it's charging? Could I tell them I drive a lot during the day? (Assuming one even bothers to use the car as an in-betwee).
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago>"1.04c/kWh) are for huge industrial installation, Unfortunately thats where the real action is, as much as i'd love to replace all energy generation with 'people's solar' its unlikely
- ChuckMcM 5y agoJust for reference, I put 5kW of panels on my roof in 2003. The unsubsidized cost was $40,000. After subsidies it came in at around $20K. So your 4X the power at 1/2 the cost is a lot cheaper.
- bufferoverflow 5y agoThat was 18 years ago :)
- ChuckMcM 5y agoYes it was :-). And based on operating expenses and billing information it became cash flow positive after 12 years. In spite of PG&E doing everything it could to prevent that (changing rate plans out from under owners). When it breaks I expect to replace it with a 10kW system tied to Powerwalls which avoids the rate plan shennanigans by not having to deal with ANY rate plan.
- brink 5y ago:)
- cmclaughlin 5y agoWould you please explain how the Powerwalls negate the rate plans? Do you mean during peak ok hours you’ll operate off battery power? I’ve read something about PGE charging customers for using solar - arguing that solar customer aren’t paying into the system for keeping up the grid. Are you referring to that scenario and do the batteries help with that in any way?
- ChuckMcM 5y agoCurrently my system is "grid tied" which, if you're not familiar with the lingo, means that when the house is producing more energy than it uses, it pushes it into the grid, when it needs more energy than it can produce it pulls what it needs from the grid. In terms of maintenance this is a really simple setup since there are no batteries to maintain. The inverters do not require periodic maintenance and the panels only need to be washed off periodically to keep them operating at their peak. In the time we've been operating like this we lost one inverter and one panel which was damaged from a falling rock. So easy to maintain, and trouble free. The question then was "how much does the power company pay for power that you produce?" The terms and conditions of what you pay, and what the power company pays, is nominally the "rate plan." When we started, this was new to PG&E and we were on a plan where we stopped getting monthly bills, instead the mechanical meter would run forward when we were drawing power and backward when we were generating power. Each month we'd have a 'net power' which could be positive (used more than produced) or negative (produced more than used)and every 12 months that was summed up. If the number was negative they would just zero it out and roll over to the next year (free power for them), if it was positive they would charge a stepped rate based on total power used for the year. Once they got "smart" meters installed they got creative with the plans, we ended up on a plan where they pay us a wholesale rate, bill us at a retail rate, and total $ up instead of actual power used. This works out better for them and extended the time it took for the system to pay for itself. Powerwalls can (and in our case will) completely disconnect you from the electric grid. They don't buy any of your power and you don't buy any of their power, hence no rate plan. If you size the system you can be pretty sure you won't ever be without power (even with a series of cloudy days) and you can add a natural gas fueled electric generator[1] (we would still have gas service) which could charge the powerwalls in a pinch. I've got all the feeds instrumented so I can tell exactly how much power the house is using and the panels have generated (fed into an influxDB time series database) and using that data have been planning for the retrofit based on our usage over the last 15 years. The Powerwalls double the initial installation cost but since I'm not paying margin (selling wholesale and buying retail)to PG&E the actual value delivered is higher and so it has a better rate of return. Of course I can only speculate on the lifetime ownership costs of Powerwalls (much like I had to do with the inverters which I had in my spreadsheet being replaced every 10 years since that was the warranty on them). [1] What I really wanted was some Bloom Energy fuel cells for that but they don't really have a 15 - 20kW rated one, it is too small.
- bkjelden 5y agoWe're at the point where residential solar is expensive not because it's solar, but just because hiring a contractor to do anything in any growing metro area is unreasonably expensive.
- throwawayboise 5y ago> hiring a contractor to do anything in any growing metro area is unreasonably expensive. So is hiring a contractor to build a website. Do you still feel that's "unreasonable" ?
- lovecg 5y agoYou don’t need to comply with pages and pages of arcane regulations to build a website though.
- sygma 5y agoIn Europe you do…
- duckmysick 5y agoSame in the United States: the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA).
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- julianlam 5y agoYes! Yes, of course it is. Hiring a competent developer to build a simple brochure website shouldn't cost as much as a small car, but yet here we are.
- bufferoverflow 5y agoYou don't need a competent developer for that. You can go to one of the website builders like SquareSpace and do it for free, or hire some student to do that for you. There's zero reason to write any code by hand for a brochure website.
- dd36 5y ago$20k for 20kW is a levelized cost of like 2c/kWh.
- turtlebits 5y agoYou can DIY + electrician (for hookup) for fairly cheaply. I just bought 5kW of used solar panels for $1k shipped to my door. You can get new panels for around double that ($0.27/watt). My 3kW inverter + charge controller (can run w/o battery) was $750. The inverter powers a critical loads panel, which switches to grid when solar isn't available. I setup the panel, I had an electrician move my critical loads and connect my inverter. That said, this is not the standard grid-tie setup, but it works for me. The advantage for me is price and the ability to add a battery later.
- 1123581321 5y agoNice. I wanted to do this but I wasn’t able to do enough of the labor myself, and in my state DIY is looking like it may get deprioritized out of receiving renewable energy credits. In exchange for paying the markup on the panels I’m getting all the paperwork done right and paying a reasonable rate for the electrical and installation work. It’s a bummer, though, similar to when I conclude I have to pay for auto maintenance work instead of saving money.
- TedDoesntTalk 5y agoI thought panels had a 20 or 25 year life span with reduced wattage each year. Is that true? How old are the panels you bought?
- bserge 5y ago25 years until they drop below 80% efficiency afaik (newer ones are even better). But 80% is still rather decent for home use especially if you have space for more of them. Buy dirt cheap, use for another 10-20 years.
- jeffbee 5y agoModern panels lose less than ½% per year. If you bought 20-year-old panels today you should expect to get 90% of their nameplate capacity still. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf
- 5y ago
- haberman 5y agoI installed 4.6 kW of solar in 2017 for $20k. I got bids from 3 different companies and they ranged from $4.40/watt to $5.60/watt. All this talk of $1/watt is blowing my mind.
- Faaak 5y agoYour price is good. 15kW will produce ~450MWh in 20 years (1500 hours of sun per year, varies between countries). 20k$/450MWh is 4cts/kWh which is pretty good IMHO