6 ms·

Also note that covid deaths are around 10-100x more than the official records. To be recorded as official death, the person should have tested positive and have

Also note that covid deaths are around 10-100x more than the official records. To be recorded as official death, the person should have tested positive and have died in a hospital. Home deaths are not recorded as covid. There are also reports from my acquaintances that deaths from private hospitals in grade 2/3 cities are not recorded as covid deaths nor are deaths even in government hospital where a test could not be performed before the death of the person. Two big reasons for this wave are 1) The kumbh mela with 5-12 million people gathering in a tiny spot. This was supposed to take place next year but was pulled forward to appease the religious hardcore. 2) Election rallies around the country.

invertedreversi 5y ago
Farmer protests are widely believed to be the biggest reason for the spread.
- mlnj 5y ago
  Not the case. The farmer protests have been going on for months and it won't be much of a protest if they all went back home and spread the virus. Yet another attempt by the BJP IT Cell to divert the attention onto anybody but the BJP government.
  - tiuPapa 5y ago
    They had a rotation policy. They clearly say it in all their interviews, how they are maintaining constant presence in the protests by rotating members every 4 - 7 days. See interviews on channels like Youtube channels like ScoopWhoop Unscripted, that tried to bring the farmer's point of view to the forefront. Let's not kid ourselves, the virus doesn't discriminate based on whether the gathering is righteous or not. Each and every gathering is a super spreader, be it a protest, election rally or a religious gathering.
    - mlnj 5y ago
      The farmers protests are almost completely represented by people from 2 States. Even if they did go home and spread the infection the rate of spread is much lower in Punjab and Haryana. I want them to handle the crisis well and be safe but the narrative that 'Farmer protests destroy India with Covid' needs to be debunked.
      - tiuPapa 5y ago
        In trying to debunk one BJP propaganda, you are spreading another. The protest was not only by the "rich" farmers of Punjab and Haryana protecting their interests, there were protests joining from all neighboring states like Rajasthan, UP, etc., with demonstrating being organized country wide. The rate of spread is not lower in Punjab or Haryana. It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst.
        mlnj 5y ago
        >It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst. Literally what I said.
        tiuPapa 5y ago
        I am not sure how "the infection the rate of spread is much lower in Punjab and Haryana" is the literally the same as "It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst". To me that reads like saying the rate of infection is much lower than the country average.
    - egghese 5y ago
      I agree with you that larger mass gatherings have a clear responsibility. However, cherry-picking the farmers protest which was dissenting a government policy when there were multiple other events and a clearly clue-less government feels like government propaganda.
- spoonjim 5y ago
  Widely believed, yes, but mostly by Modi dick-riders.
  - dang 5y ago
    Posting like this will get you banned here. We had to warn you about flamebait another time recently as well. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules from now on.
- egghese 5y ago
  What are the sources of this claim ? A general consensus was the false narrative that claimed India have conquered Covid, resulting in people ignoring the safety measured cause this. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y If you are looking for super spreader events its more likely the large election gatherings caused a spike. Blaming a protest that was taking place even months before looks like propaganda.
  - thepasswordis 5y ago
    Were people simply not gathering at all other than for election events?
    - egghese 5y ago
      The initial lock down and panic eventually made people deny existence of Covid, along with a narrative that Indians are immune to Covid. Later the leadership started claiming India already conquered Covid. https://www.livemint.com/science/health/we-are-in-the-endgame-of-covid-19-pandemic-in-india-harsh-vardhan-11615121893097.html https://www.livemint.com/science/health/we-are-in-the-endgam... To answer your question, people were gathering for events other than rallies
      - hesarenu 5y ago
        Where does in the link he claims covid is conquered. He specifically says we are in endgame and to succeed politics should be kept out of the Covid-19 vaccination drive. There were too many guys questioning vaccination. Why twist the sentence?
        kingofpandora 5y ago
        > Where does in the link he claims covid is conquered. He specifically says we are in endgame and to succeed politics should be kept out of the Covid-19 vaccination drive. There were too many guys questioning vaccination. Why twist the sentence? "Today, Covid cases are declining rapidly in India ... 18 percent of the world's population is in India, a country that saved mankind from a big disaster by saving its citizens from the pandemic."
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- intended 5y ago
  Farmer protests were last year. Cases started spiking late/feb and march. Protests would have shown 14 day lagged incrEase in cases in Punjab and Harayana, where the bulk of attendees came from. Those cases were not seen. This idea is incongruous with information we have. On the other hand The central govt has been declaring mission accomplished since last year. I wouldn’t blame people for thinking that their respected leader was telling them the truth and acting accordingly. Risk taking behavior is related to how the people on top act, especially in India which is today, a far more centralized nation.
- mandis 5y ago
  Protests were in Jan/Feb. Cases rose April. Larger gatherings happened in March and April for elections and religion. Please take your one sided narrative elsewhere.
- rk06 5y ago
  Who believes that? Farmer protests happened during December-feb, while COVID surge started in March. Govt. is just blaming farmers for everything, instead of kumbh mela, lowering restrictions and election rallies
baybal2 5y ago
+ Holi + IPL + Mahashivratri
- tiuPapa 5y ago
  IPL has 0 attendance, hosted in bubbles. How are they spreading it?
  - baybal2 5y ago
    People gathering together in public places to watch it.
    - tiuPapa 5y ago
      Any evidence of that? From my anecdotal experience, each and every place in my town where such public viewing used to be organized was cancelled. I would believe that to be the case throughout the country.
jeswin 5y ago
> Also note that covid deaths are around 10-100x more than the official records. So up to 350,000 people died just yesterday. And over the last ten days, up to 3 million people died? While deaths are certainly underreported, it isn't helpful in a pandemic to throw random figures around.
- mlnj 5y ago
  Those numbers are based on the lack of crematorium facilities and the obvious queues of bodies lined outside for cremation. I know of at least 7 people dying in the last 7 days. The official numbers mean nothing anymore.
  - jeswin 5y ago
    Can you please read my comment again? Please don't turn this forum into a political propaganda platform.
    - mlnj 5y ago
      Political propaganda is the last thing on my mind right now. Here's some sources for the lack of cremation facilities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the-limit-crematoria-staring-at-acute-wood-shortage/articleshow/82282020.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-overwhelmed-virus-swallows-people-77296870 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-... https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-crematoriums-corpses-wait-in-20-hour-queues-to-burn-101619522536735.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-cr... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the-cremation-queue/articleshow/82220337.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the... This is not in line with only 3500 people dying all over the country. This is in line with the range the above comment mentions. My anecdote of people dying my inner circle is not political. Neither is my opinion that the official numbers are to be not trusted given the evidence.
      - 5y ago
kushalpandya 5y ago
Yeah right, Maharashtra had massive gathering for Kumbh Mela at Bandra-Worli Sea Link, and Delhi had election rally for Assembly elections and newly appointed CM Arvind Kejriwal had merely days to manage mess left by LG.
- mandis 5y ago
  Kolkata has a 54% positivity rate now, and nobody is able to get tested due to lack of testing infra. Just because it wasnt reported, doesnt mean it didnt affect.
  - kushalpandya 5y ago
    Sure now, but Maharashtra has been overflowing since early March when other states where there were no gatherings, didn't have cases. Point is, not single govt alone has failed. Pretty much everyone failed, including citizens like us who forgot precautions in January and February when cases dropped considerably. I still see public ignoring safety norms like nothing has happened. As for people running for hospitals, a primary reason (as per a doctor who treated my dad for Covid) is that people are ignoring symptoms for days (over a week at times) after which virus does enough damage that only option they're left with is getting oxygen assistance.
    - mandis 5y ago
      I agree with the first part, but the one with the biggest power center must also take the biggest responsibility. When the literal head of the nation gleefully boasts about the size of the election rally crowd during a killer pandemic wave, yeah, its on him. >As for people running for hospitals, a primary reason (as per a doctor who treated my dad for Covid) is that people are ignoring symptoms for days (over a week at times) after which virus does enough damage that only option they're left with is getting oxygen assistance. Hospitals will give the same protocol as people are following at home. In fact add the empathetic environment of home with proper food (compared to the sheer lack of care in any hospital right now), and people are recovering faster at home. Yes, there are many cases though where people had serious damage and they neglected to go early. Just saying this issue is complicated and I can understand why someone would hesitate to go to a hospital with 99F fever and slight bodyache.
ceilingcorner 5y ago
This is speculation and no better than saying all the COVID deaths are overinflated because they include anyone who happens to have COVID when they die.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ramraj07 5y ago
  Please see https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
hesarenu 5y ago
Its not like people were not dying before Covid. Covid just increased the number of deaths. If you visited hindu cremation before covid you would have seen 2-3 funerals on a day(just based on my small city). Bangalore i think now has the highest case in India. Kumbh mela or elections did not cause that spike or the spike all around India.
- AmIDev 5y ago
  Per my experience(and seconded by local newspapers), crematoriums would allow the family to pick up the ashes on the next day. Assuming 8 hours for cremation(it takes less than that), this suggests that there was at least 2x the buffer available. Probably higher than that, as I've not seen(or heard of) all pyres being occupied at the same time. This means in places where there is shortage of pyres, deaths must be at least 3x the earlier one.
pessimist 5y ago
10x death-undercount nationwide is probably not accurate. Major states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are reporting close to accurate numbers. 2-5x nationwide is likely, with places like UP, West Bengal and Gujarat undercounting by 5-10x.
- jeswin 5y ago
  Exactly. In fact, the under-reporting is closely linked to how well developed a state is. It's unfortunate that even in these times, propaganda (from both sides) has completely taken over rational analysis.
- kfifi 5y ago
  How are these states getting all the home death numbers or deaths without covid tests?
revendell_elf 5y ago
But Kumbh happened in Uttar Pradesh while highest cases are being recorded in Maharashtra way before Kumbh happened. I'm against any social gatherings but this seems to defy logic , isn't it?
bluzeee 5y ago
I'm really surprised from where someone forms conclusion of the reasons like these. Please see my comment to understand better.
svat 5y ago
> The kumbh mela […] was supposed to take place next year but was pulled forward to… Not strictly COVID-related, but this was the first I'd heard of this and it sounded surprising to me, so I looked it up. I picked an older version of the Wikipedia article (from Nov 2019, just to rule out recent changes that may have been made because of COVID-19) and it (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kumbh_Mela&oldid=927418645 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kumbh_Mela&oldid=...) says: > The weeks over which the festival is observed cycles at each site approximately once every 12 years[note 1] based on the Hindu luni-solar calendar and the relative astrological positions of Jupiter, sun and moon. where [note 1] gives as reference a 2008 book that says: > About once a century the Kumbha Mela returns to a site after eleven years. Jupiter’s orbit is actually 11.86 years, so after each twelve-year cycle it moves a little further into the sign, which the eleventh year celebration corrects. Another 2019 book cited in the article is more clear, and its second chapter explicitly mentions 2021 for Haridwar: > The Mela is organized when a specific astronomical combination (kumbha yoga) of the Moon, the Sun, and Jupiter occurs in specific zodiac signs. The Moon takes around one month (27.32 days) to orbit the earth during which it transits through the 12 signs. The Sun transits through the 12 signs in around one year (365.2425 days), the time taken by the earth to orbit the Sun. Finally, Jupiter transits through the 12 signs in nearly 12 years (11.8618 years), the time taken by it to orbit the Sun. The transit period of Jupiter being the longest—12 times that of the Sun and around 159 times that of the moon—the kumbha yoga for a location repeats when Jupiter enters the same sign again. This is why the Kumbha Mela is held once every 12 years at a given venue, as a general rule. > The seventh Mela after six melas held in 72 years (each held 12 years after the previous one) is held 11 years after the sixth Mela, giving us seven melas in 83 years. The reason is that Jupiter completes seven transits of the zodiac in nearly 83 years (11.8618 × 7 = 83.0326), and moves to the next sign in the 84th year. This is why the Haridwar Kumbha was held in 1938 after 1927 and the Prayaga Kumbha was held in 1977 after 1966. The last Kumbha in Haridwar was in 2010 (1938 + 72), but the next one will be in 2021 (1938 + 83 = 2010 + 11). I wonder where the idea of "was supposed to take place next year" comes from: my guess is that someone extrapolated the approximate "takes place every 12 years" and just naively added 12 to the previous year (2010) at the same location. These festivals are based on the assumption that a certain conjunction in the sky indicates a sacred time, to be marked by bathing in holy rivers etc. One can of course reject this notion entirely (and with it the festival itself), but it doesn't make much sense to treat the festival like a sports event or conference that can be moved around. The government of India can no more change the date of the Kumbh Mela than, say, the government of Italy change the date of Easter. All a government can do is restrict people's movements, etc. The accusation that crowds were allowed to gather obviously makes sense; not so much the accusation that the date was changed. (Incidentally, Wikipedia has multiple articles on the date of Easter: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Easter_controversy&oldid=1013922729 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Easter_controvers... https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Date_of_Easter&oldid=1018791379 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Date_of_Easter&ol... https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Reform_of_the_date_of_Easter&oldid=1005491700 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Reform_of_the_dat... .)

invertedreversi 5y ago

Farmer protests are widely believed to be the biggest reason for the spread.

mlnj 5y ago
Not the case. The farmer protests have been going on for months and it won't be much of a protest if they all went back home and spread the virus. Yet another attempt by the BJP IT Cell to divert the attention onto anybody but the BJP government.
- tiuPapa 5y ago
  They had a rotation policy. They clearly say it in all their interviews, how they are maintaining constant presence in the protests by rotating members every 4 - 7 days. See interviews on channels like Youtube channels like ScoopWhoop Unscripted, that tried to bring the farmer's point of view to the forefront. Let's not kid ourselves, the virus doesn't discriminate based on whether the gathering is righteous or not. Each and every gathering is a super spreader, be it a protest, election rally or a religious gathering.
  - mlnj 5y ago
    The farmers protests are almost completely represented by people from 2 States. Even if they did go home and spread the infection the rate of spread is much lower in Punjab and Haryana. I want them to handle the crisis well and be safe but the narrative that 'Farmer protests destroy India with Covid' needs to be debunked.
    - tiuPapa 5y ago
      In trying to debunk one BJP propaganda, you are spreading another. The protest was not only by the "rich" farmers of Punjab and Haryana protecting their interests, there were protests joining from all neighboring states like Rajasthan, UP, etc., with demonstrating being organized country wide. The rate of spread is not lower in Punjab or Haryana. It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst.
      - mlnj 5y ago
        >It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst. Literally what I said.
        tiuPapa 5y ago
        I am not sure how "the infection the rate of spread is much lower in Punjab and Haryana" is the literally the same as "It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst". To me that reads like saying the rate of infection is much lower than the country average.
  - egghese 5y ago
    I agree with you that larger mass gatherings have a clear responsibility. However, cherry-picking the farmers protest which was dissenting a government policy when there were multiple other events and a clearly clue-less government feels like government propaganda.
spoonjim 5y ago
Widely believed, yes, but mostly by Modi dick-riders.
- dang 5y ago
  Posting like this will get you banned here. We had to warn you about flamebait another time recently as well. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules from now on.
egghese 5y ago
What are the sources of this claim ? A general consensus was the false narrative that claimed India have conquered Covid, resulting in people ignoring the safety measured cause this. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y If you are looking for super spreader events its more likely the large election gatherings caused a spike. Blaming a protest that was taking place even months before looks like propaganda.
- thepasswordis 5y ago
  Were people simply not gathering at all other than for election events?
  - egghese 5y ago
    The initial lock down and panic eventually made people deny existence of Covid, along with a narrative that Indians are immune to Covid. Later the leadership started claiming India already conquered Covid. https://www.livemint.com/science/health/we-are-in-the-endgame-of-covid-19-pandemic-in-india-harsh-vardhan-11615121893097.html https://www.livemint.com/science/health/we-are-in-the-endgam... To answer your question, people were gathering for events other than rallies
    - hesarenu 5y ago
      Where does in the link he claims covid is conquered. He specifically says we are in endgame and to succeed politics should be kept out of the Covid-19 vaccination drive. There were too many guys questioning vaccination. Why twist the sentence?
      - kingofpandora 5y ago
        > Where does in the link he claims covid is conquered. He specifically says we are in endgame and to succeed politics should be kept out of the Covid-19 vaccination drive. There were too many guys questioning vaccination. Why twist the sentence? "Today, Covid cases are declining rapidly in India ... 18 percent of the world's population is in India, a country that saved mankind from a big disaster by saving its citizens from the pandemic."
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
intended 5y ago
Farmer protests were last year. Cases started spiking late/feb and march. Protests would have shown 14 day lagged incrEase in cases in Punjab and Harayana, where the bulk of attendees came from. Those cases were not seen. This idea is incongruous with information we have. On the other hand The central govt has been declaring mission accomplished since last year. I wouldn’t blame people for thinking that their respected leader was telling them the truth and acting accordingly. Risk taking behavior is related to how the people on top act, especially in India which is today, a far more centralized nation.
mandis 5y ago
Protests were in Jan/Feb. Cases rose April. Larger gatherings happened in March and April for elections and religion. Please take your one sided narrative elsewhere.
rk06 5y ago
Who believes that? Farmer protests happened during December-feb, while COVID surge started in March. Govt. is just blaming farmers for everything, instead of kumbh mela, lowering restrictions and election rallies

baybal2 5y ago

+ Holi + IPL + Mahashivratri

tiuPapa 5y ago
IPL has 0 attendance, hosted in bubbles. How are they spreading it?
- baybal2 5y ago
  People gathering together in public places to watch it.
  - tiuPapa 5y ago
    Any evidence of that? From my anecdotal experience, each and every place in my town where such public viewing used to be organized was cancelled. I would believe that to be the case throughout the country.

jeswin 5y ago

> Also note that covid deaths are around 10-100x more than the official records. So up to 350,000 people died just yesterday. And over the last ten days, up to 3 million people died? While deaths are certainly underreported, it isn't helpful in a pandemic to throw random figures around.

mlnj 5y ago
Those numbers are based on the lack of crematorium facilities and the obvious queues of bodies lined outside for cremation. I know of at least 7 people dying in the last 7 days. The official numbers mean nothing anymore.
- jeswin 5y ago
  Can you please read my comment again? Please don't turn this forum into a political propaganda platform.
  - mlnj 5y ago
    Political propaganda is the last thing on my mind right now. Here's some sources for the lack of cremation facilities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the-limit-crematoria-staring-at-acute-wood-shortage/articleshow/82282020.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-overwhelmed-virus-swallows-people-77296870 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-... https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-crematoriums-corpses-wait-in-20-hour-queues-to-burn-101619522536735.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-cr... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the-cremation-queue/articleshow/82220337.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the... This is not in line with only 3500 people dying all over the country. This is in line with the range the above comment mentions. My anecdote of people dying my inner circle is not political. Neither is my opinion that the official numbers are to be not trusted given the evidence.
    - 5y ago

kushalpandya 5y ago

Yeah right, Maharashtra had massive gathering for Kumbh Mela at Bandra-Worli Sea Link, and Delhi had election rally for Assembly elections and newly appointed CM Arvind Kejriwal had merely days to manage mess left by LG.

mandis 5y ago
Kolkata has a 54% positivity rate now, and nobody is able to get tested due to lack of testing infra. Just because it wasnt reported, doesnt mean it didnt affect.
- kushalpandya 5y ago
  Sure now, but Maharashtra has been overflowing since early March when other states where there were no gatherings, didn't have cases. Point is, not single govt alone has failed. Pretty much everyone failed, including citizens like us who forgot precautions in January and February when cases dropped considerably. I still see public ignoring safety norms like nothing has happened. As for people running for hospitals, a primary reason (as per a doctor who treated my dad for Covid) is that people are ignoring symptoms for days (over a week at times) after which virus does enough damage that only option they're left with is getting oxygen assistance.
  - mandis 5y ago
    I agree with the first part, but the one with the biggest power center must also take the biggest responsibility. When the literal head of the nation gleefully boasts about the size of the election rally crowd during a killer pandemic wave, yeah, its on him. >As for people running for hospitals, a primary reason (as per a doctor who treated my dad for Covid) is that people are ignoring symptoms for days (over a week at times) after which virus does enough damage that only option they're left with is getting oxygen assistance. Hospitals will give the same protocol as people are following at home. In fact add the empathetic environment of home with proper food (compared to the sheer lack of care in any hospital right now), and people are recovering faster at home. Yes, there are many cases though where people had serious damage and they neglected to go early. Just saying this issue is complicated and I can understand why someone would hesitate to go to a hospital with 99F fever and slight bodyache.

ceilingcorner 5y ago

This is speculation and no better than saying all the COVID deaths are overinflated because they include anyone who happens to have COVID when they die.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ramraj07 5y ago
Please see https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...

hesarenu 5y ago

Its not like people were not dying before Covid. Covid just increased the number of deaths. If you visited hindu cremation before covid you would have seen 2-3 funerals on a day(just based on my small city). Bangalore i think now has the highest case in India. Kumbh mela or elections did not cause that spike or the spike all around India.

AmIDev 5y ago
Per my experience(and seconded by local newspapers), crematoriums would allow the family to pick up the ashes on the next day. Assuming 8 hours for cremation(it takes less than that), this suggests that there was at least 2x the buffer available. Probably higher than that, as I've not seen(or heard of) all pyres being occupied at the same time. This means in places where there is shortage of pyres, deaths must be at least 3x the earlier one.

pessimist 5y ago

10x death-undercount nationwide is probably not accurate. Major states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are reporting close to accurate numbers. 2-5x nationwide is likely, with places like UP, West Bengal and Gujarat undercounting by 5-10x.

jeswin 5y ago
Exactly. In fact, the under-reporting is closely linked to how well developed a state is. It's unfortunate that even in these times, propaganda (from both sides) has completely taken over rational analysis.
kfifi 5y ago
How are these states getting all the home death numbers or deaths without covid tests?

revendell_elf 5y ago

But Kumbh happened in Uttar Pradesh while highest cases are being recorded in Maharashtra way before Kumbh happened. I'm against any social gatherings but this seems to defy logic , isn't it?

bluzeee 5y ago

I'm really surprised from where someone forms conclusion of the reasons like these. Please see my comment to understand better.

svat 5y ago

> The kumbh mela […] was supposed to take place next year but was pulled forward to… Not strictly COVID-related, but this was the first I'd heard of this and it sounded surprising to me, so I looked it up. I picked an older version of the Wikipedia article (from Nov 2019, just to rule out recent changes that may have been made because of COVID-19) and it (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kumbh_Mela&oldid=927418645 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kumbh_Mela&oldid=...) says: > The weeks over which the festival is observed cycles at each site approximately once every 12 years[note 1] based on the Hindu luni-solar calendar and the relative astrological positions of Jupiter, sun and moon. where [note 1] gives as reference a 2008 book that says: > About once a century the Kumbha Mela returns to a site after eleven years. Jupiter’s orbit is actually 11.86 years, so after each twelve-year cycle it moves a little further into the sign, which the eleventh year celebration corrects. Another 2019 book cited in the article is more clear, and its second chapter explicitly mentions 2021 for Haridwar: > The Mela is organized when a specific astronomical combination (kumbha yoga) of the Moon, the Sun, and Jupiter occurs in specific zodiac signs. The Moon takes around one month (27.32 days) to orbit the earth during which it transits through the 12 signs. The Sun transits through the 12 signs in around one year (365.2425 days), the time taken by the earth to orbit the Sun. Finally, Jupiter transits through the 12 signs in nearly 12 years (11.8618 years), the time taken by it to orbit the Sun. The transit period of Jupiter being the longest—12 times that of the Sun and around 159 times that of the moon—the kumbha yoga for a location repeats when Jupiter enters the same sign again. This is why the Kumbha Mela is held once every 12 years at a given venue, as a general rule. > The seventh Mela after six melas held in 72 years (each held 12 years after the previous one) is held 11 years after the sixth Mela, giving us seven melas in 83 years. The reason is that Jupiter completes seven transits of the zodiac in nearly 83 years (11.8618 × 7 = 83.0326), and moves to the next sign in the 84th year. This is why the Haridwar Kumbha was held in 1938 after 1927 and the Prayaga Kumbha was held in 1977 after 1966. The last Kumbha in Haridwar was in 2010 (1938 + 72), but the next one will be in 2021 (1938 + 83 = 2010 + 11). I wonder where the idea of "was supposed to take place next year" comes from: my guess is that someone extrapolated the approximate "takes place every 12 years" and just naively added 12 to the previous year (2010) at the same location. These festivals are based on the assumption that a certain conjunction in the sky indicates a sacred time, to be marked by bathing in holy rivers etc. One can of course reject this notion entirely (and with it the festival itself), but it doesn't make much sense to treat the festival like a sports event or conference that can be moved around. The government of India can no more change the date of the Kumbh Mela than, say, the government of Italy change the date of Easter. All a government can do is restrict people's movements, etc. The accusation that crowds were allowed to gather obviously makes sense; not so much the accusation that the date was changed. (Incidentally, Wikipedia has multiple articles on the date of Easter: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Easter_controversy&oldid=1013922729 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Easter_controvers... https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Date_of_Easter&oldid=1018791379 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Date_of_Easter&ol... https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Reform_of_the_date_of_Easter&oldid=1005491700 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Reform_of_the_dat... .)