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I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million I
by lumost 6y ago
I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following.
Ford: 521,334
GM: 642,250
Toyota: 2.46 million
VW: 2.5 million
If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.
- ping_pong 6y agoTesla has already lost marketshare in almost every market so they won't be bigger than Ford in 2 years. They will likely lose their regulatory credits some time this year because VW, Audi, Porsche and Ford have strong offerings.
- Reason077 6y agoHow does Tesla lose market share while achieving record (+ 109%) sales? The market certainly hasn’t been growing faster than Tesla has.
- bildung 6y agoBecause the EV market grew much faster, e.g. +260% for Germany (from 108k in 2019 to 395k in 2020).
- Reason077 6y agoSure, but market share should be considered as a percentage of the overall car market, not just electric sales. It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally.
- bildung 6y ago> It's unrealistic to expect that Tesla would continue to dominate the EV market forever. It is realistic to expect that Tesla will become a significant player in car sales globally. How could Tesla become a significant player in the overall market without being much more significant in the EV market, which is a small subset of the former?
- Reason077 6y agoEV sales are growing rapidly as a portion of the overall vehicle market, and will continue to do so. Eventually, virtually all vehicle sales will be electric. This will happen faster in some regions than in others.
- ping_pong 6y agoWhat are you saying? How can Tesla be a significant player in car sales globally, when as a percentage of EV car sales, they are decreasing? Think about it for a second and it will come to you. As more cars turn EV, unless Tesla maintains their marketshare, they will become less and less significant. They've lost marketshare in the first year that the major car companies have introduced reasonable EVs. Their 2nd derivative is negative. Tesla is valued at 3X Toyota with having a fraction of the sales. What happens when the EV market becomes fully realized, but Tesla isn't the market leader but a small player. Do they still deserve to be 3X Toyota's market cap?
- Reason077 6y ago> "As more cars turn EV, unless Tesla maintains their marketshare, they will become less and less significant." No, that's not neccessarily true at all. Let's imagine that in 2021, EVs are 2% of car sales globally, and Tesla has 50% of the EV market. That means that Tesla has 1% share of the entire car market. Now imagine that in 2031, EVs are 50% of car sales globally. And Tesla's share of the EV market has "shrunk" to 20%. But that's still 10% of the entire car market. Even assuming no market growth, that's an enormous 10X (1000%!) sales growth for Tesla over 10 years! Even though its share of the EV market has shrunk, Tesla is selling 10X more cars and is a far more significant company in 2031.
- yessql 6y agoWhen you define the market as electric vehicles instead of passenger vehicles. In Europe, the electric vehicle market is growing very fast. But all these EV sales come at the expense of gas/diesel sales, so I think it is a bad idea to consider EV's as a separate market.
- nine_k 6y agoIf the market expands faster than your market share shrinks, your business still grows. Examples: IBM with IBM PC, Apple with iPhone.
- dagw 6y agoExamples: IBM with IBM PC And we all know how many IBM PCs IBM has sold over the past decade. I think that IBM might actually be the most apt analogy for Tesla. 20 years from now Tesla will be a niche player in the market they built basically from scratch.
- tompccs 6y agoI mean, as a TSLA shareholder I'm...fine with that? A few years ago people were predicting the company would go bankrupt before they ever became profitable, now the bear scenario is that they become the largest company in their sector by a huge margin until settling into dominant complacency.
- tonyedgecombe 6y agoI still think they will end up as a subsidiary of one of the laggards.
- seunosewa 6y agoWhy? Which companies will be the main players in that scenario?
- dagw 6y agoVW, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Geely perhaps? Or some other Chinese company we haven't really heard of yet?. I don't see Tesla turning itself into the sort of company that can (or wants to) successfully compete in the top 5 carmakers by volume or revenue. I think they'll be happiest playing in the high performance niche and leave making the EV Corolas and Polos of the world to Toyota and VW All that being said, I'm far from confident enough in this prediction be to be actively betting against Tesla.
- 6y ago
- rsj_hn 6y agoObligatory xkcd https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- _ph_ 6y agoNot quite to the point, as the growth of Tesla isn't just a single data point, but the growth is pretty constant over many years.
- kaba0 6y agoBecause it’s the initial phase of the curve? COVID is exponential until it isn’t, on what basis do you think it’s fair to extrapolate?
- _ph_ 6y agoAbout 8 years of growth following the exponential curve? Just look at all the quarter numbers. Of course, at a certain point Tesla is going to stop growing exponentially. The competition is growing, the total car market is limited. But if Tesla is continuing on the current trajectory for 2-4 more years, they have a chance at becoming the largest car manufacturer in the world.
- legulere 6y agoOnly if other companies aren’t growing faster. VW tripled electric car sales in 2020 compared to 2021: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2021/01/Volkswagen-brand-triples-deliveries-of-all-electric-vehicles-in-2020.html# https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2021/01/Volkswagen-bran...
- watt 6y agoWhen you sold 1 car yesterday, and sell 2 today, you have doubled your sales. It's misleading to talk about growth in terms of percentage points (or doubling/tripling, etc), if it's somewhat low numbers.
- kaba0 6y agoAre you seriously writing it under a comment that just linearly extrapolated tesla’s production?
- vesinisa 6y agoI am not even downvoting that comment because it seems to be such a great example of the blatant cognitive dissonance Tesla and Musk evoke in many people.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- yarcob 6y agoVW has just started selling their first "real" electric cars based on their all new platform. If that platform works out then Tesla is going to compete not against one or two new models, but they'll suddenly compete against two dozen models. Unless VW fucks something up in the next year, I just don't know how Tesla expects to compete with them. Tesla only has a handful of high end cars; they have no family cars, no vans, no compact cars, no busses. VW is great at building models for every niche and at every price point. No matter what kind of car you want, VW (or Skoda or Audi) has multiple options for you. Tesla is currently still ahead, but I'm not sure they can match the breadth of VWs upcoming model palette (if VWs new platform works out).
- helsinkiandrew 6y agoThat assumes the other car manufacturers aren't growing too. Most of the car industry has had their best growth in 1st quarter sales for nearly a decade. It will be interesting to see Q2 numbers - March sales seemed to be contributing most to the quarterly growth, but the chip shortage may effect production.
- jillesvangurp 6y agoMost manufacturers selling EVs have had decent sales on those. They are basically flying off the shelves. Plugin hybrids are popular as wellof course but they are more complex to build and maintain than a simple battery EV: they have a cost disadvantage. And that's a problem in a market with low margins that is about to be flooded with ever cheaper EV models. Petrol and Diesel cars are still important to a lot of manufacturers and that's market that is looking pretty grim right now. Short term there are those manufacturers that have been planning and building giga factories (to build batteries and assemble cars) for the last few years and are bringing more online. And there are those who did not do that and are now struggling to secure battery supplies to match their ambitions. It will take them many billions to fix that. All while their existing ICE product lines are under increasing pressure. The likes of Toyota, GM, VW, etc. will be very dependent on their ICE production for the foreseeable future. Of those, VW and GM are very serious about ramping up production capacity of course. Particularly VW looks like a solid contender for the #2 position behind Tesla short term at this point (that's their own stated ambition even). But still, most of their sales is still ICE vehicles and that's just not a growth business at this point. Lower margins, lower volume, and the threat of obsolescence decimating the second hand value. However, the real threat to manufacturers is coming from China. Cheap mass produced EVs are already a reality there. There are multiple manufacturers there producing very high quality products that are looking to start exporting. 10-15$K EVs in the current market would be highly disruptive to companies depending on selling lots of 15-20K ICE vehicles. That's why Tesla is looking to produce a 25$k vehicle in China.
- Daniel_sk 6y agoTesla cars are not interesting for many customers in EU (except maybe nordic countries), they will go with VW/Audi/BMW or other brands. You can't easily extrapolate the growth from US to EU or other parts of world.
- gigatexal 6y agoThat’s a bold statement. Here in Berlin I am seeing the model 3 a lot these days.
- La1n 6y agohttps://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/renault-zoe-eclipses-tesla-model-3-europes-best-selling-ev https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/renault-zoe-ecli... Less Tesla's are getting sold while other car makers have massive growth in their sales.
- gigatexal 6y agoMy comment cited anecdotal evidence so defer to your link with facts. The Porsche Tychan is a really compelling threat to the Model S, too.
- froh 6y agoZoe is smaller and cheaper than Model 3. In the market of upper middle class and upper class vehicles (like BMW 3, 5 7 series, Mercedes C, E class, Audi A4 and above), Tesla was outselling the others combined for a year in a row. The real question is if Tesla has real plans to grow down into the Zoe category. the mass production of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, or Volkswagen group or Toyota is another ball park from what Tesla does today. Each of them produces about 10 Mio vehicles y/y, and the margins really are in the high volume there. My personal bet is Tesla stays in the upper middle class and upper class vehicles, and is not the new VW/RNM/FCA/Toyota/FMC, but the new BMW, Mercedes, Audi. And Porsche.
- ryzvonusef 6y agoLet's see what happens after the Berlin factory opens up; this will reduce both delivery time and costs (tax/tariff etc), and make it cheaper and easier to ge the Tesla. Also, the car built in Berlin would be better suited to European moods, regarding quality etc...
- pyrale 6y agoAnd they'll produce more cars than there are atoms in the universe before the end of this century.
- hedberg10 6y agoSound prediction! Do you have an MBA?
- lofi_lory 6y agoYes, for the looks, but this was based on old Intel.
- stjo 6y agoThat's how you end up with 400 husbands: https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- kgran 6y ago* 4 dozen == 48
- RobRivera 6y agothis right here. this is a spot data point. momentum, inferential analytics, etc. are beholden to error and volatility
- simonh 6y agoIf the singularity happens on schedule they'll all be paperclips long before then.
- lofi_lory 6y agoNow I imagine God looking into the petri dish watching car and paperclip forming entities fighting each other over the measured resources of the experimental culture medium, seeing the beauty of balancing forces, having naturalistic fallacies touch him where he likes to be touched, a lot.
- 3dee 6y agoRight now Tesla is outperforming competition on three points: * 0-100km/h times * Range * Charging network I believe most people don't care about the 0-100 speed. And most people can live with a little less range. So this leaves the network as a selling point. I believe it depends on the country how important this is. For example in the Netherlands you can cross the whole country on one charge. So you don't need a network. Only recently competition is shifting focus to electric cars and more and more great EVs are being released. For example the new Hyundai Ioniq 5 is a car I personally would prefer over a Tesla. So Tesla is doing great but I think they are becoming 'just another car brand'.
- erikstarck 6y agoYou forgot: * Software
- oblio 6y agoDiminishing returns come much faster and harder for software in cars. Software not being the main focus of a car. Especially now with Android Auto/Apple CarPlay.
- audunw 6y ago> Diminishing returns come much faster and harder for software in cars. Software not being the main focus of a car. That used to be true. With self-driving technology I'm not sure that's true anymore. Tesla has even offered hardware updates to improve self-driving of older models. I haven't heard of anyone else doing that yet. > Especially now with Android Auto/Apple CarPlay. Eh. That's just infotainement, and cars can still provide significant value without using that. When driving a Tesla I don't miss CarPlay, and I rarely use it in my Kia even though it's better than the built-in infotainment stuff. Mostly just for navigation if I know it's a complex route. But again, I never miss CarPlay for navigation in Tesla cars because the built-in system is very good and always up-to-date through OTA.
- oblio 6y ago
- dmitriid 6y agoNissan has sold more of the Nissan Leaf worldwide than Tesla has sold all its models combined. Edit: it has been pointed out that this is incorrect. Apparently, Leaf sold as much as Tesla sold in 2020.
- throwaway4good 6y agoOr phrased in a different manner: Tesla needs to double their car production, every year, the next 4 years to get to the size of Toyota or VW. How realistic is that?
- raverbashing 6y agoFord has being down for the past years, closing factories worldwide. I think their focus now is on the SUV/Pickup trucks and exiting other markets.
- andrepd 6y agoYeah, and yesterday I wrote a line of code. Today I wrote two. This means in about three weeks I will write the linux kernel from scratch. I expected Musk-hype in this thread but nothing quite so ridiculous as these idiotic "analyses".
- dustinmoris 6y agoFamous last words. Reminds me of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U
- andrepd 6y agoI don't see the connection.
- dustinmoris 6y ago> I expected Musk-hype in this thread but nothing quite so ridiculous as these idiotic "analyses" Of course there is a ceiling which any product maker will hit eventually, but the OP made a prediction that Tesla could become the worlds biggest car manufacturer and the response to that was to label this an "idiotic analyses". This reminds me of how Ballmer was laughing at Apple and literally 12 months later Apple was the leading smartphone maker and has been the most successful smartphone company to date and the first company in human history to even cross the 1 trillion valuation mark. So yeah... I wouldn't write off Tesla as becoming the largest car manufacturer in the near future and certainly not call it an idiotic analyses. Do you see it now?
- andrepd 6y agoIt is an idiotic analysis on the basis of a couple cherry-picked data points: the performance of rival companies on this particular quarter, plus the performance of Tesla in the past year, plus the assumption that all future growth will be extrapolated from each single data point.
- inflagranti 6y ago
- cs702 6y agoYour global figures for Ford and GM look wrong to me... but otherwise, I agree: If Tesla continues to grow at these rates, yes, eventually they will catch up with leading car manufacturers, all the way up to VW, currently the world's largest. Tesla's online manufacturing capacity at quarter-end was ~1.05M EVs/year (~600K/year in California, ~450K/year in Shanghai), which works out to a run-rate of 262K/quarter, vs. 180K deliveries in Q1. The two gigafactories already in construction, Berlin and Texas, look likely to come online within ~12 months. They should add at least 1M more EVs/year in manufacturing capacity, bringing the max possible quarterly run-rate to 500-600K/quarter. The four gigafactories already in development look like to come online within 2-3 years, and should add at least 2M EVs/year in manufacturing capacity, bringing the max possible quarterly run-rate to 1M+/quarter. To catch up with VW, Tesla would have to add 10-20 additional gigafactories beyond the 2 already in construction and the 4 in development. And of course, they would have to find buyers for all those EVs, most of which would have to be low price-tag, entry-level, mass-market vehicles, like Toyota's RAV4 and Corolla, and VW's Tiguan and Jetta. It's possible for Tesla and Musk to overtake the likes of VW in volume -- if anyone can, it's them. But it's not certain that they'll be able to do it. Success is far from guaranteed, given that all automakers are going 100% electric now.
- dagw 6y agoIt's possible for Tesla and Musk to overtake the likes of VW in volume -- if anyone can, it's them. But it's not certain that they'll be able to do it. It's not certain they'll want to. Much better to stay a higher end brand and focus on "fun" and exciting high end cars people (and other car makers) aspire to, rather than trying to out compete Toyota and VW in making Corolas and Polos.