8 ms·

x86 is dead - first in consumer, then in cloud. It is hard to see to me how this ends any other way. The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM

x86 is dead - first in consumer, then in cloud. It is hard to see to me how this ends any other way. The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years. Its not hard to see from there how software will be even more optimized for ARM variants than x86 and that the scale of both mobile and consumer computing will push x86 out of the datacenter slowly as old software that relies on x86 is retired over the next decade. People won't want to develop on x86 and deploy to ARM. ARM is more power efficient which is important in the data center too. We already scale by the core in the cloud, so why not just heap a few more cheap cores on if we need more to match x86 (which right now looks like we might not). Tell me how I am wrong.

asddubs 6y ago
a lot of people still rely on windows. maybe if microsoft gets a better emulator going, but I imagine with the amount of legacy they support that's a lot more challenging than for apple who are much more trigger happy when it comes to imposing changes on devs. i think it'll definitely happen, especially with the web browser increasingly taking on the role of the operating system, but 4 years seems a little optimistic, even with your qualification of that statement
chao- 6y ago
I agree with you in general, but disagree on the time scale. Particularly: >The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years. I think good options might exist in 4 years, but still possess trade-offs, where legacy x86-64 platforms still have their place. This could be something as niche as maturity of IOMMU implementations in x86 workstations, but stack up a bunch of niches and I find it hard to see "largely all" in four years. Fifty-fifty in four years, "largely all" in ten for "the creative class". Then there is a long tail of industries may end up legacy-bound to x86 for decades to come. Nothing is guaranteed. If starting in 2022 we were to see another 3-year performance plateau, ala 2016-2019, then anyone who bought into an mid- or high-end x86 platform today may not feel compelled to upgrade in just four years. Even if the ARM options exist, it might not be a compelling enough gap in four years' time. I'm not saying that a plateau is likely (competitive landscape suggests the opposite), but I don't have a crystal ball, so I won't discount it either. Again I want to emphasize that I mostly agree, but I wouldn't bet any money on sweeping changes on such an aggressive timeline.
monkmartinez 6y ago
Creative class is a lot more than programmers. Look at boutique system integrators like Puget Systems... do you see Apple/ARM Hardware? Heck no you don't! These guys sell hardware to a LOT of the companies that comprise the credits in movie production, game production, laboratories, university science departments, ML researchers, big energy, and soooooo much more. These guys are not rewriting their software stack for thin chassis, thermal limited, and non-repairable hardware. Raytheon doesn't buy Apple/ARM hardware for their simulations, design and development. Does Boeing, Airbus, Ford or Caterpillar run on Apple/ARM hardware? Are these companies just chomping at the bit to ditch their legacy stacks? I don't think so.
- stephenr 6y ago
  The parent comment didn’t say “we’ll all be using Apple” He said ARM.
  - monkmartinez 6y ago
    I edited my comment as I think in the context of the larger discussion, ARM and Apple are basically interchangeable.
    - ascagnel_ 6y ago
      I wholeheartedly disagree. Apple is probably the "first, best" case of ARM, but there's absolutely nothing stopping anyone from making a similar investment in ARM hardware. Indeed, Amazon is already doing so with Graviton, and we're seeing similar improvements in both raw speed and in perf/watt like what we're seeing with M1 chips vs. Intel[0]. And that's one of the best parts of ARM -- the design itself is available for licensing, unlike x86, so anyone can pony up the cash and build up their own customized chips that maintain compatibility with base ARM code (maybe needing a recompile to take advantage of new hardware features). [0] https://dev.to/dnx/arm-vs-intel-a-real-world-comparison-using-ec2-2kme https://dev.to/dnx/arm-vs-intel-a-real-world-comparison-usin...
- jtbayly 6y ago
  ARM, not Apple. They are not the same thing.
smiley1437 6y ago
Are there examples of Arm designs OTHER than the M1 which are suitable for consumers? Yes, the M1 is a remarkable product and it will certainly make inroads against x86 on the desktop but it is from a single company. Will Apple M1 (2, 3 etc) replace all x86 devices in a decade? That’s hard to swallow. Now, if we see another Arm product released that ALSO kicks x86 butt, from another player, then maybe I’d believe a change is happening
- jareklupinski 6y ago
  if you are not using an apple phone, your smartphone likely uses an ARM-licensed chip, and chromebooks/windows RT devices ran ARM cores the only thing holding back wider adoption is legacy x86 software
  - ankurdhama 6y ago
    The smartphone ARM and chromebook ARM processors are nowhere near the M1 or x86 CPU in terms of performance. You need an M1 kind performance in these devices outside of Apple.
  - tedd4u 6y ago
    Also Raspberry Pi’s are ARM. ARM Macs run x86 software great (my experience) and ARM Windows machines run x86 software adequately (I have read). Don’t know how well QEmu works on Linux - haven’t tried it but know it’s available.
    - selcuka 6y ago
      Apple's Rosetta 2 that allows x86 code to run on M1 is a different beast than QEmu though. It translates x86 machine code to ARM code. That's why it is much faster than VM solutions.
      - makomk 6y ago
        QEmu also translates x86 machine code to ARM code, or vice-versa, or many other combinations. It's more optimised for portability and ease of adding translation support for new architectures than performance though but it's a really nifty bit of engineering.
nerfhammer 6y ago
waiting for the gaming console announcement
- incanus77 6y ago
  Uh, Nintendo Switch?
  - 1_player 6y ago
    Something a bit more modern and powerful, perhaps?
- Gaelan 6y ago
  If you mean specifically an Apple Silicon game console, that's the Apple TV.
ankurdhama 6y ago
Only if I can buy a desktop/laptop with a powerful ARM processor and plug-in a bootable usb and install operating system (arm version) of my choice with all drivers etc working fine.
- Gaelan 6y ago
  I expect this will be the case with Linux on the M1 in a year or two, given the pace of marcan's work. Windows depends on Microsoft's willingness, of course.
  - ankurdhama 6y ago
    That's the thing, reverse engineered drivers are not the solution and I don't see Apple providing drivers or any documentation of M1 SoC for other operating system. We need M1 equivalent from vendors that are NOT into "vertical integration" like Apple.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    That's an argument against the M1 and ARM dominance.
- imtringued 6y ago
  Ok, it's time for the emulation anxiety meme (based on EV range anxiety), will this system emulate this extremely performance intensive x86 game at ultra with 4k graphics at 144hz? If not, then I will not buy it.
dehrmann 6y ago
Intel and AMD aren't standing still in this.
- akmarinov 6y ago
  Apple also isn’t just standing around, enjoying the M1
nightowl_games 6y ago
You overestimate the size and relevance of your peer group and you underestimate the inertia that will impede this migration.
Mauricebranagh 6y ago
"creative class" :-) The m1 is cool but for heavy duty work its still got a number of issues memory multiple displays. Rember there no such thing as to much Memory, IPC, Graphics performance - thee is sadly often a luck of budget.
CrLf 6y ago
> People won't want to develop on x86 and deploy to ARM. It's still too early to say if people want to develop on ARM to deploy on x86. The 90's with all their "better than x86" chips couldn't beat the fact that people want to develop on the same architecture to which they deploy. Back then that meant displacing all these other chips from the server side because there was no option but x86 for us mortals to have as PCs. This dearth of alternatives on the server side took out their respective offerings on the high-end/niche workstation market as well. The PowerPC was one of these casualties, lets not forget about that. Things are even worse today. The x86 is dominant in both ends and has no real alternatives: ARM server chips are weak and the inertia of building on x86 and deploying on x86 is too strong, and ARM desktop chips are also weak, except for a single luxury brand (Apple, which incidentally cares very little for any developers besides the ones that develop for their own ecosystem).
- matwood 6y ago
  > ARM server chips are weak For AWS cloud customers, I don't think this is true anymore. Graviton2 is quite capable with better performance in some instances for less money. I've already started moving some Java services to Graviton2 for the cost savings. AWS is positioning the the Graviton2 in such a way that everyone using AWS will end up on them if they can.
imtringued 6y ago
>Tell me how I am wrong. It's already difficult enough to get Windows games to run on Linux, getting them to run on ARM with good performance isn't going to happen, especially when every ARM vendor insists on using an integrated GPU.
- jeofken 6y ago
  If your CI system builds for x86 and ARM from the first build, it will be simple to ship to both. For old games it’d be harder, but one could maybe compile from one ASM to another.
matkoniecz 6y ago
> as old software that relies on x86 is retired over the next decade. seems very, very, very unlikely to me

asddubs 6y ago

a lot of people still rely on windows. maybe if microsoft gets a better emulator going, but I imagine with the amount of legacy they support that's a lot more challenging than for apple who are much more trigger happy when it comes to imposing changes on devs. i think it'll definitely happen, especially with the web browser increasingly taking on the role of the operating system, but 4 years seems a little optimistic, even with your qualification of that statement

chao- 6y ago

I agree with you in general, but disagree on the time scale. Particularly: >The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years. I think good options might exist in 4 years, but still possess trade-offs, where legacy x86-64 platforms still have their place. This could be something as niche as maturity of IOMMU implementations in x86 workstations, but stack up a bunch of niches and I find it hard to see "largely all" in four years. Fifty-fifty in four years, "largely all" in ten for "the creative class". Then there is a long tail of industries may end up legacy-bound to x86 for decades to come. Nothing is guaranteed. If starting in 2022 we were to see another 3-year performance plateau, ala 2016-2019, then anyone who bought into an mid- or high-end x86 platform today may not feel compelled to upgrade in just four years. Even if the ARM options exist, it might not be a compelling enough gap in four years' time. I'm not saying that a plateau is likely (competitive landscape suggests the opposite), but I don't have a crystal ball, so I won't discount it either. Again I want to emphasize that I mostly agree, but I wouldn't bet any money on sweeping changes on such an aggressive timeline.

monkmartinez 6y ago

Creative class is a lot more than programmers. Look at boutique system integrators like Puget Systems... do you see Apple/ARM Hardware? Heck no you don't! These guys sell hardware to a LOT of the companies that comprise the credits in movie production, game production, laboratories, university science departments, ML researchers, big energy, and soooooo much more. These guys are not rewriting their software stack for thin chassis, thermal limited, and non-repairable hardware. Raytheon doesn't buy Apple/ARM hardware for their simulations, design and development. Does Boeing, Airbus, Ford or Caterpillar run on Apple/ARM hardware? Are these companies just chomping at the bit to ditch their legacy stacks? I don't think so.

stephenr 6y ago
The parent comment didn’t say “we’ll all be using Apple” He said ARM.
- monkmartinez 6y ago
  I edited my comment as I think in the context of the larger discussion, ARM and Apple are basically interchangeable.
  - ascagnel_ 6y ago
    I wholeheartedly disagree. Apple is probably the "first, best" case of ARM, but there's absolutely nothing stopping anyone from making a similar investment in ARM hardware. Indeed, Amazon is already doing so with Graviton, and we're seeing similar improvements in both raw speed and in perf/watt like what we're seeing with M1 chips vs. Intel[0]. And that's one of the best parts of ARM -- the design itself is available for licensing, unlike x86, so anyone can pony up the cash and build up their own customized chips that maintain compatibility with base ARM code (maybe needing a recompile to take advantage of new hardware features). [0] https://dev.to/dnx/arm-vs-intel-a-real-world-comparison-using-ec2-2kme https://dev.to/dnx/arm-vs-intel-a-real-world-comparison-usin...
jtbayly 6y ago
ARM, not Apple. They are not the same thing.

smiley1437 6y ago

Are there examples of Arm designs OTHER than the M1 which are suitable for consumers? Yes, the M1 is a remarkable product and it will certainly make inroads against x86 on the desktop but it is from a single company. Will Apple M1 (2, 3 etc) replace all x86 devices in a decade? That’s hard to swallow. Now, if we see another Arm product released that ALSO kicks x86 butt, from another player, then maybe I’d believe a change is happening

jareklupinski 6y ago
if you are not using an apple phone, your smartphone likely uses an ARM-licensed chip, and chromebooks/windows RT devices ran ARM cores the only thing holding back wider adoption is legacy x86 software
- ankurdhama 6y ago
  The smartphone ARM and chromebook ARM processors are nowhere near the M1 or x86 CPU in terms of performance. You need an M1 kind performance in these devices outside of Apple.
- tedd4u 6y ago
  Also Raspberry Pi’s are ARM. ARM Macs run x86 software great (my experience) and ARM Windows machines run x86 software adequately (I have read). Don’t know how well QEmu works on Linux - haven’t tried it but know it’s available.
  - selcuka 6y ago
    Apple's Rosetta 2 that allows x86 code to run on M1 is a different beast than QEmu though. It translates x86 machine code to ARM code. That's why it is much faster than VM solutions.
    - makomk 6y ago
      QEmu also translates x86 machine code to ARM code, or vice-versa, or many other combinations. It's more optimised for portability and ease of adding translation support for new architectures than performance though but it's a really nifty bit of engineering.

nerfhammer 6y ago

waiting for the gaming console announcement

incanus77 6y ago
Uh, Nintendo Switch?
- 1_player 6y ago
  Something a bit more modern and powerful, perhaps?
Gaelan 6y ago
If you mean specifically an Apple Silicon game console, that's the Apple TV.

ankurdhama 6y ago

Only if I can buy a desktop/laptop with a powerful ARM processor and plug-in a bootable usb and install operating system (arm version) of my choice with all drivers etc working fine.

Gaelan 6y ago
I expect this will be the case with Linux on the M1 in a year or two, given the pace of marcan's work. Windows depends on Microsoft's willingness, of course.
- ankurdhama 6y ago
  That's the thing, reverse engineered drivers are not the solution and I don't see Apple providing drivers or any documentation of M1 SoC for other operating system. We need M1 equivalent from vendors that are NOT into "vertical integration" like Apple.
- imtringued 6y ago
  That's an argument against the M1 and ARM dominance.
imtringued 6y ago
Ok, it's time for the emulation anxiety meme (based on EV range anxiety), will this system emulate this extremely performance intensive x86 game at ultra with 4k graphics at 144hz? If not, then I will not buy it.

dehrmann 6y ago

Intel and AMD aren't standing still in this.

akmarinov 6y ago
Apple also isn’t just standing around, enjoying the M1

nightowl_games 6y ago

You overestimate the size and relevance of your peer group and you underestimate the inertia that will impede this migration.

Mauricebranagh 6y ago

"creative class" :-) The m1 is cool but for heavy duty work its still got a number of issues memory multiple displays. Rember there no such thing as to much Memory, IPC, Graphics performance - thee is sadly often a luck of budget.

CrLf 6y ago

> People won't want to develop on x86 and deploy to ARM. It's still too early to say if people want to develop on ARM to deploy on x86. The 90's with all their "better than x86" chips couldn't beat the fact that people want to develop on the same architecture to which they deploy. Back then that meant displacing all these other chips from the server side because there was no option but x86 for us mortals to have as PCs. This dearth of alternatives on the server side took out their respective offerings on the high-end/niche workstation market as well. The PowerPC was one of these casualties, lets not forget about that. Things are even worse today. The x86 is dominant in both ends and has no real alternatives: ARM server chips are weak and the inertia of building on x86 and deploying on x86 is too strong, and ARM desktop chips are also weak, except for a single luxury brand (Apple, which incidentally cares very little for any developers besides the ones that develop for their own ecosystem).

matwood 6y ago
> ARM server chips are weak For AWS cloud customers, I don't think this is true anymore. Graviton2 is quite capable with better performance in some instances for less money. I've already started moving some Java services to Graviton2 for the cost savings. AWS is positioning the the Graviton2 in such a way that everyone using AWS will end up on them if they can.

imtringued 6y ago

>Tell me how I am wrong. It's already difficult enough to get Windows games to run on Linux, getting them to run on ARM with good performance isn't going to happen, especially when every ARM vendor insists on using an integrated GPU.

jeofken 6y ago
If your CI system builds for x86 and ARM from the first build, it will be simple to ship to both. For old games it’d be harder, but one could maybe compile from one ASM to another.

matkoniecz 6y ago

> as old software that relies on x86 is retired over the next decade. seems very, very, very unlikely to me