4 ms·

Prices have beeen going up steadily for the last 10-15 years. Maybe there was a single dip in 2008-2010.

by wink 6y ago

adrianN 6y ago
Past performance of an asset is no guarantee for future performance.
- ChuckNorris89 6y ago
  I don't care about past performance, I'm only looking at the future and unless there will be a future building boom in the cities to increase supply(spoiler alert, it won't because a million reasons) and unless there will be a sharp drop in internal and external immigration to the cities with jobs, prices will keep rising.
  - snidane 6y ago
    Have you exhausted all options for why prices will only increase? I can see a scenario in which inflation rises and increased mortgage rates deflate the current overvalued housing market.
    - imtringued 6y ago
      It's already rising in the US, if the central bank figures out how to meet the 2% goal year over year it will raise the interest rates in a few years. Probably not before 2024 though.
- marcosdumay 6y ago
  Especially when the populational trends imply that demand for housing will go down on the distant future. Future performance is almost guaranteed to decouple from past performance at some point.
  - wink 6y ago
    Your points are technically correct, the best kind of correct. I'm not looking at any undetermined future point in time, if I'm ranting about housing prices it might be not unrealistic that I'd like to buy one in the next few years - and I've seen absolutely zero indication that the prices would suddenly drop by 20-40% to the point where I'd call them reasonable, like 15 years ago.
    - netrus 6y ago
      This chart should be far more prominent than it is in most discussions about housing in Germany: https://www.interhyp.de/ratgeber/was-muss-ich-wissen/zinsen/zins-charts.html https://www.interhyp.de/ratgeber/was-muss-ich-wissen/zinsen/... The incredible increase in house prices tracks a dramatic decline in interest rates. Interest rates were at 1% last year, below inflation! I have no idea how interest rates will change in the next few years, but I do know they will not decline at the same rate as over the past 10 years. As soon as they go up, the prices will decline.
    - marcosdumay 6y ago
      Huh? Things will be different on the far future. The exact point when it will change is a matter of speculation, and all the warnings about timing the market apply. You implied a high certainty that nothing will change, ever, and talked about 15 years things. There is a high likelihood that nothing will change in 5 years (even though COVID19 reduces those odds a lot, because a bunch of people just died). And there is very high likelihood that things will change a lot in 40 years. Time things at your own risk.
fnord77 6y ago
not everywhere. and there's some evidence that big corps are buying up houses and becoming mega-rentiers. always a chance these companies could collapse and then the market would be flooded with houses as they liquidate.

Prices have beeen going up steadily for the last 10-15 years. Maybe there was a single dip in 2008-2010.

by wink 6y ago

Prices have beeen going up steadily for the last 10-15 years. Maybe there was a single dip in 2008-2010.

adrianN 6y ago

Past performance of an asset is no guarantee for future performance.

ChuckNorris89 6y ago
I don't care about past performance, I'm only looking at the future and unless there will be a future building boom in the cities to increase supply(spoiler alert, it won't because a million reasons) and unless there will be a sharp drop in internal and external immigration to the cities with jobs, prices will keep rising.
- snidane 6y ago
  Have you exhausted all options for why prices will only increase? I can see a scenario in which inflation rises and increased mortgage rates deflate the current overvalued housing market.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    It's already rising in the US, if the central bank figures out how to meet the 2% goal year over year it will raise the interest rates in a few years. Probably not before 2024 though.
marcosdumay 6y ago
Especially when the populational trends imply that demand for housing will go down on the distant future. Future performance is almost guaranteed to decouple from past performance at some point.
- wink 6y ago
  Your points are technically correct, the best kind of correct. I'm not looking at any undetermined future point in time, if I'm ranting about housing prices it might be not unrealistic that I'd like to buy one in the next few years - and I've seen absolutely zero indication that the prices would suddenly drop by 20-40% to the point where I'd call them reasonable, like 15 years ago.
  - netrus 6y ago
    This chart should be far more prominent than it is in most discussions about housing in Germany: https://www.interhyp.de/ratgeber/was-muss-ich-wissen/zinsen/zins-charts.html https://www.interhyp.de/ratgeber/was-muss-ich-wissen/zinsen/... The incredible increase in house prices tracks a dramatic decline in interest rates. Interest rates were at 1% last year, below inflation! I have no idea how interest rates will change in the next few years, but I do know they will not decline at the same rate as over the past 10 years. As soon as they go up, the prices will decline.
  - marcosdumay 6y ago
    Huh? Things will be different on the far future. The exact point when it will change is a matter of speculation, and all the warnings about timing the market apply. You implied a high certainty that nothing will change, ever, and talked about 15 years things. There is a high likelihood that nothing will change in 5 years (even though COVID19 reduces those odds a lot, because a bunch of people just died). And there is very high likelihood that things will change a lot in 40 years. Time things at your own risk.

fnord77 6y ago

not everywhere. and there's some evidence that big corps are buying up houses and becoming mega-rentiers. always a chance these companies could collapse and then the market would be flooded with houses as they liquidate.