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Intel in talks to produce chips for automakers within six to nine months
- kevinob11 6y agoDoes that mean they will be in cars in ~6 years?
- xt00 6y agoYes, that is the typical timeline for getting silicon into cars from my experience. They make announcements like this to tell engineers, "hey we are interested in this area, please check out our dev kits." Most likely in the ADAS area is what they are targeting to compete with nvidia and others. Intel I'm assuming did a brainstorm relatively recently and wrote down on a white board "what should we be focusing on".. and they probably wrote down: -cloud server infrastructure -something to compete with the Apple M series processors -high margin businesses ( cars / self-driving and military / large super computer installs ) So basically my understanding is that they use the lead customer in each product segment they care about to help them define the cutting edge for that space. So they probably will use Microsoft/Azure for cloud customer leadership, some competitor of Tesla like VW or Mercedes for ADAS stuff, and military they probably are already doing fine there. Especially with the new Arizona fabs.
- bri3d 6y agoIt doesn't sound like they're designing a new line of silicon, but rather offering up pure fab to someone like Infineon for Aurix or Renesas for R-Car or whatever their stuff is called lately. Whether or not that's plausible or a marketing play, I'm not sure (since nobody outside of Intel really knows the details about Intel's process constraints), but it doesn't sound like they are targeting an area of competition where they would be introducing new silicon and expecting a whole iteration lifecycle. The intent seems to be drop-in replacements.
- trhway 6y ago>they use the lead customer in each product segment they care about to help them define the cutting edge for that space. with that customer naturally describing a faster horse that it wants :)
- BooneJS 6y ago9 months from inception to first silicon is close to the speed of light, development and manufacturing-wise. I wish them good luck, as this is impacting several industries downstream.
- Invictus0 6y agoCorrect me if I'm wrong but I believe the article is saying that outside companies will come in to use their existing designs on Intel equipment; Intel won't be designing new chips themselves.
- guepe 6y agoA fairly large amount of work is required to re-map the design onto Intel standard cells, which are not compatible with others. This means entire backend needs to be re-done. It's very significant amount of work.
- floxy 6y agoWhy would they port them to use new standard cells? Why wouldn't they just use the existing physical layout artwork to make new masks (i.e. GDSII files)? Assuming a closely compatible process. Maybe that's the catch? Intel's existing processes aren't close to anything anyone else has? Not that I think 6-9 months is reasonable.
- dboreham 6y agoBecause the layout depends on the process. And processes are different.
- BooneJS 6y agoIf it’s just standard cells, then it could go quick. Change technology library and synthesize. But if there’s process-specific IP (analog serdes, non-standard cells, etc), then that takes work. I presume most automobile chips are not leading node high-speed switches.
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- astockwell 6y agoMy favorite movie: senior executives with a history of getting engineering estimates wrong, making promises about engineering timelines. grabs popcorn
- jvanderbot 6y agoThis is "Intel: The sequel. Uninformative priors abound" e.g., Under new management.
- ta988 6y agoNew head, same body! Its likely the reflex are still here.
- nabla9 6y agoThat's why Intel got rid of Bob Swan (MBA) and hired Gelsinger as GEO. Gelsinger is in an engineer, he was the architect of Intel 80486.
- User23 6y agoI went from bearish to bullish on INTC when they hired a product guy instead of a bean counting guy. 5 years from now we’re going to look back on Intel as an incredible opportunity.
- totalZero 6y agoSwan wasn't the problem, as I understand it. Krzanich was an atrocious leader, and Swan's job was basically to put out the dumpster fire that Krzanich left behind after he was forced out.
- ihaveajob 6y agoWho knows, they've been trying to get into the fab business since I left there about 10 years ago. This opportunity could be what finally kickstarts that idea into reality.
- aero142 6y agoReading between the lines, it sounds like they are supplying chips domestically to remove a dependence on a foreign, unpredictable supply chain, and are able to use fabs that are losing relevance for server chips in a way that doesn't matter to the car manufacturers. Sounds like a win-win, but I'm guessing the next thing we will hear is a pitch for federal subsidy for this under a national security banner.
- Ericson2314 6y agoYes, much state capitalism all around here.
- luxuryballs 6y agoMight as well unfortunately, if they aren’t going to cut all the regulations that drive up the cost of employment and manufacturing. At this point it feels like another hit of economic heroin is the only thing staving off fatal withdrawals.
- defaultname 6y agoIntel has a number of advanced foundries around the world, and they're jockeying for business as their cash cow sees a bit of threat. Every wafer-for-hire foundry is running at >100% utilization so it's basically printing money at this point, especially if you have a slightly older foundries that aren't up to par for creating the cutting edge of chip, but they're perfectly adequate for making most automotive electronics (e.g. 28nm).
- blihp 6y agotl;dr version: there's nothing unpredictable about the supply chain if you don't cancel your orders. That's the narrative (re: dependence on foreign chips), but it's not what actually happened. Last year the auto manufacturers anticipated a slowdown in demand and cut back on inventory orders. This made sense at the time (to reduce orders) given the uncertainty but it sounds like they pretty much cancelled them. They likely figured that their suppliers would be happy for the business when they returned.[1] The semi companies just put other customers in line ahead of them and now the autos are screwed since they are facing incredibly long lead times for chips and don't have the inventory to bridge the gap to make the number of vehicles they need. This benefits Intel because the line of customers looking for 14nm chips at the prices Intel probably wants to charge likely isn't very long. However, they've found a perfect (i.e. desperate) customer in the autos. So it's actually a win-win for the time being. [1] This actually works if you're a supplier exclusively to one company/industry. It doesn't work so well if you have other options.
- gumby 6y agoI'm excited by the possibility of Intel's recovery from it's long, slow, near death experience. That being said this is a classic "grab headlines while one may, for by the time the deadline rolls around everyone will have forgotten and the goalposts will have moved" Intel hasn't seriously been in the low margin embedded chip business in decades (margin starts terrible and goes down from there as product matures and you have to guarantee supply for a long time). Expect a stock bump though.
- WoodenChair 6y ago> I'm excited by the possibility of Intel's recovery from it's long, slow, near death experience. Intel made 24 billion dollars last year on 78 billion dollars of revenue. It's not exactly near death. 1996 Apple was near death. Intel is having a mid-life crisis at best.
- systemvoltage 6y agoIntel is growing, just not as much as people expect. That’s how companies now are evaluated. Grow or gtfo.
- kevin_thibedeau 6y agoDon't even think of trying to pay a dividend or your stock is trash.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- GlennS 6y agoWhy would you ever pay a dividend when a stock buyback is more tax efficient for US investors?
- ac29 6y agoQualified dividends are taxed at the same rate as capital gains in the US. There are benefits to the tax deferring nature of stock buyback induced capital gains, but there are also benefits to being taxed each year along the way via dividends (such as the risk that capital gains tax will go up in the future). Many companies both pay dividends and do stock buybacks, Intel among them.
- paxys 6y agoI bet the engineers at Intel who just found out about this through the public announcement and now have to figure it out are thrilled.
- schraeds 6y agoSounds like the natural progression of their Foundry Service announcement from a few weeks ago.
- alfiedotwtf 6y agoMaybe it’s just me, but did anyone else read it is “dying company to focus on producing for dying industry”... seems like a wrong move to me
- randomopining 6y agoHow is automotive a dying industry lol? How do humans get around in your world?
- totalZero 6y agoNah. Both of those 'dying' businesses are seeing an explosion of demand.
- delfinom 6y agoAutomotive is hardly dying. It is however in a natural downcycle even before corona. The real story is people don't have money. Even before corona, used car prices have been absolutely exploding as a result of less people having money for even leasing cars.
- rossdavidh 6y agoSo, Intel has been having trouble getting their cutting-edge (very small geometry) manufacturing to work. Automotive chips, however, I believe typically do not require the very newest, smallest geometry manufacturing (although they have other peculiarities and demanding requirements). I was, many years ago, employed as a manufacturing engineer in semiconductor fabs that, once no longer cutting edge enough to do the latest CPU's or memory chips, would transition to doing higher-voltage stuff. It's a reasonable thing to do. It does not necessarily speak well of Intel's current situation, though, with respect to CPU and memory chips, that they consider this a good move. But, given their current situation, it probably is making the best of a bad situation.
- rossdavidh 6y agoI should have mentioned that I haven't worked in the semiconductor industry for over a decade, so perhaps something has changed with regard to automotive chips, but that was my understanding at the time I left.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- guessbest 6y agoDoes this mean they are going to onshore their fabrication plants based on your experience? It seems like CEOs promise that but still go ahead with building plants in countries with cheap labor
- sanxiyn 6y agoMy understanding is that fab equipments are so expensive that cheap labor doesn't matter. Note that most of Samsung's fab capacity is in South Korea and it has no plan whatsoever to offshore that. Ditto for TSMC.
- csours 6y agoMost of Samsung's fabs may be in SK, but some of it is just down the street from me in Austin.
- CapriciousCptl 6y agoSince these chips presumably don’t need 5nm does this mean Intel can use its old lithography machines? That might otherwise be collecting dust or something?
- thunkshift1 6y agoGood way to repurpose billions poured as capex into the older nodes
- anonuser123456 6y agoWhat kind of diodes will they be producing?
- ggm 6y agoPhilips (NL) is going to have a spectacular financial year outcome, I believe they make a lot of fab line equipment. And anyone else in the space. Europe used to make the things, moved to making the things which make things. If not philips somebody like philips.
- hkmurakami 6y agoYou're probably thinking of ASML. They have indeed done great!
- ggm 6y agoYes. according to the company history web page, co-founded by Philips, who sold down in the 90s and following years sold out. https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/history https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml/history 29% ROI Year to date. nearly 500% on 5 years.
- Avalaxy 6y agoIf Philips would have held on to all the successful companies they spun off, they would now be worth 5 times as much. They were also one of the largest shareholders of TSMC when they started.
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- jaimex2 6y agoDoes this mean some cars will have Intel inside stickers?
- MangoCoffee 6y agoIs it easy to port a design over and start pumping out chips on a totally different process?. Is it easy to reconfigure an Intel "optimized" production line? Intel only make chips for themselves. Can they reconfigured their fabs to use standardized tool such as EDS software that most fabless and fab use? how long would it take?
- nullserver 6y agoAncient article I read talked about how with a single press announcement on Intel’s upcoming 586 architecture. 2 or 3 competitors simply gave up. Never mind that by the time Intel actually delivered the other players would have been at the same tech level.
- fomine3 6y agoI can't wait to buy a car with Intel Inside and Centrino stickers.
- JohnJamesRambo 6y agoImagine when you hit that “turbo” button like on the 486.
- mrweasel 6y agoIsn't that technically what the "Eco" button in some cars does. The turbo button didn't make the computer go faster if I recall, it reduced speed when activated.
- JohnJamesRambo 6y agoYeah I googled it yesterday to see what it even did and it made the computer slower. I’m not sure I knew that back then...afraid I was setting computers slower. You can see where consumers could be confused since they basically made a word mean the opposite of what it means. Someone needs a paddling for that.
- nfoz 6y agoProbably way off-topic but I hope this doesn't imply that cars are going the way of Smart TV's where they have some annoying and underpowered tech in them to force an early obsolescence on a machine that is otherwise fine and could last decades. But I suspect that ship is sailing regardless.
- aj7 6y agoIntel in talks to act as “1.5 level” chip foundry. or Intel’s commitment to a “mixed foundry-proprietary” business model.
- SavantIdiot 6y agoHey is anyone else worried about China halting TSMC and then falling back on their PinTouge fabs? Or am I succumbing to a right-wing fever dream?
- Traster 6y agoThis is an interesting move - because it seems exceedingly unlikely that they'll be able to extract the same margin out of automative customers that they get with data centre chips. Which means that management in Intel is starting to think about pursuing new markets despite sacrificing gross margin - bad move financially short term for them, but could be very promising long term.
- baybal2 6y agoAutomotive actually has better margin that even DC chips. The problem for them will be that the automotive IC market is actually not that big. A gorilla like Intel will be able to saturate the market few times over if we take all of their capacity.
- abductee_hg 6y agohow about they make a mobile chip that doesn't suck first? the 2013 BMW ... if you got the big headunit you had to also get the big AC... why? there was an extra hose from the AC to the headunit... why? intel ATOM. that's why.
- michaelt 6y agoAutomotive companies love doing this. Oh, you want auto-park? We bundle that with our premium loudspeakers, it's the "advanced technology pack". Keyless entry? We bundle that with the heated steering wheel.
- teddyh 6y agoAnd high beam assist: https://twitter.com/_jakegroves/status/1374872023596417024 https://twitter.com/_jakegroves/status/1374872023596417024 https://twitter.com/_jakegroves/status/1375002783103995904 https://twitter.com/_jakegroves/status/1375002783103995904
- unnouinceput 6y agoI would not buy a car that has BCM/ECU modules with Intel chips inside. Undocumented instructions and hidden SoC inside the chip itself (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Management_Engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Management_Engine) that you have zero control of, is enough reasons to not trust Intel anymore.
- __michaelg 6y agoWhere are all the 8051 jokes?
- baybal2 6y agoI doubt most HN readers even know what 8051 is.
- jhgb 6y agoYou should make a poll about that.
- __michaelg 6y agoThey might not know what 8051s are, but they are still in their cars :D
- ju-st 6y agoNot a single Intel Atom embedded (E3xxx) is currently available at Mouser
- klelatti 6y agoPresumably this means that Intel expects margins on the auto chips to be higher than on what this capacity could be producing for Intel's own products. Given Intel's margins are already high this could mean: - Very, very attractive margins on the auto chips. - Much lower expected margins on Intel chips or idle capacity. So which is more likely? (and of course Intel quickly establishes a position in a new market in line with PG's strategy and gets some good PR).
- PartiallyTyped 6y agoNeither. Probably recycling/repurposing of older fabs. Afaik car manufacturers are not looking for cutting edge chips found in memory, cpus and gpus, so older fabrication lines can be repurposed for that role and provide an alternative revenue stream for intel until they manage to sort their CPU fab line out.
- klelatti 6y agoNot convinced. Multiple processes mentioned in the piece. Maybe there is capacity being freed up as 10nm comes on-stream but seems likely that they are anticipating some weakening of demand or moving some work to TSMC.
- PartiallyTyped 6y agoThey certainly expect lower demand on their current chips as they run hot(er) and with fewer cores. They have bought a percentage of TSMC's production but TSMC is not very hot about them either as they are building new fabs for their 7nm chips.
- prawn 6y agoIs this related to the scenario described in the following comment at all? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26659709 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26659709
- leesalminen 6y agoAaq
- snigacookie 6y agoAre the margins sustainable ? Or will intels overheads eat all the profit?