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We had the same myth of vacancies here in Vancouver, and so the Province instituted a 2% vacancy tax on foreign owners. As evidenced by the ongoing market climb

We had the same myth of vacancies here in Vancouver, and so the Province instituted a 2% vacancy tax on foreign owners. As evidenced by the ongoing market climb, this wasn't the panacea that many hoped for. We haven't designed or planned for the growth we're undergoing. It is a zoning and civic planning problem, first and foremost, and not a problem that can be solved by direct price manipulation.

ttul 6y ago
It made a difference for a while. But once those new vacancies were filled, the market seized again and it’s now once again airtight. They just aren’t responding to demand by allowing for enough new development. It’s insanity.
Scoundreller 6y ago
Not being a panacea doesn't make the intended problem being solved a myth. Maybe a fault with overestimating the scope of the problem, but that's about it.
- vsef 6y ago
  The issue is that using an overinflated figure for the scale of the vacancy problem leads to the incorrect conclusion that meaningful change can happen by solving an alleged vacancy crisis. It can't. The scale is not large enough. It is a convenient issue to misdirect attention to for groups of diverse political leanings. Progressives and wealthy homeowners both can avoid any of the messy realities of needing to permit new housing while pretending as though there's this more politically palatable thing they can do instead.
plank_time 6y ago
I grew up in Vancouver since the 80s.Vancouverites cannot complain about not enough housing. In the 35 years since I came to Vancouver as a kid, there are so many condos everywhere, it looks like a bad joke. The massive amount of new housing made no difference housing prices which have never seen a crash in 40 years.
- epistasis 6y ago
  Seems like maybe it wasn't actually a massive amount of new housing? Having been to Vancouver, the only thing that seems like a joke is the massive amount of land that is reserved only for multi-million dollar single unit homes, and the lack of space where apartment buildings are allowed. Vancouver is beautiful, has great transit, but needs a lot more apartment buildings.
shaggyfrog 6y ago
The foreign buyers tax and the speculation tax had a demonstrable effect on the market here in Vancouver: https://twitter.com/ianjamesyoung70/status/1371212355170832385 https://twitter.com/ianjamesyoung70/status/13712123551708323... Meanwhile, real estate prices are up for the whole country: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-bubble-small-towns-1.5973134 https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-bubble-small-towns-...
- dleslie 6y ago
  Noticeable but not a panacea; with the way folks talked about it you'd think the _only_ cause of housing price increase was foreign speculation, when in fact it turned out to be an altogether minor factor.
  - shaggyfrog 6y ago
    Foreign ownership has been shown conclusively to be a major factor, if not the most important, in real estate pricing in Vancouver.
jim-jim-jim 6y ago
It turns out the problem wasn't foreign investors, but investors full stop. The real solution is to institute a tax, much higher than 2%, on any second, third, etc purchase and make the very notion of an "investment property" prohibitively expensive. The housing market would look very different if everybody had to live in their property instead of engaging in transparently parasitic activity like speculation/landlording. If there's still not enough space after these policies are implemented, maybe then we can entertain the YIMBYs' sqwaking.
- dleslie 6y ago
  Owners will just pass that expense on to market renters, since there isn't much in the way of alternative rental housing.
  - jim-jim-jim 6y ago
    Combine it with caps on rent increases.
    - epistasis 6y ago
      You will still keep people out of the city that want to live there. Rent increases will be replaced with wait lists. I really wonder, why are you so opposed to giving people what they want, which just so happens to also meet BC's climate goals? Multi unit housing is much much better for the environment.
      - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
        > Rent increases will be replaced with wait lists. That is basically what happened when I lived in Switzerland. Places were let at reasonable prices, but there was so much competition for supply that your best bet was to find something overpriced.
        Leherenn 6y ago
        If the prices are up due to competition, it might be expensive, but it's not overpriced.
imtringued 6y ago
I don't know why many people fail to grasp that prices are signals, they are information. If prices are high, there isn't enough housing for everyone. By messing with the price signal and reducing it artificially through things like rent control you are telling everyone that there is enough housing but there simply isn't. From the perspective of a politician this is very good for their career. It's the "fake it", mentality except you never intend to do the "until you make it" part.
- hackeraccount 6y ago
  [Little Bill viciously kicks English Bob] Little Bill Daggett : I guess you think I'm kicking you, Bob. But it ain't so. What I'm doing is talking, you hear? I'm talking to all those villains down there in Kansas. I'm talking to all those villains in Missouri. And all those villains down there in Cheyenne. And what I'm saying is there ain't no whore's gold. And if there was, how they wouldn't want to come looking for it anyhow.

ttul 6y ago

It made a difference for a while. But once those new vacancies were filled, the market seized again and it’s now once again airtight. They just aren’t responding to demand by allowing for enough new development. It’s insanity.

Scoundreller 6y ago

Not being a panacea doesn't make the intended problem being solved a myth. Maybe a fault with overestimating the scope of the problem, but that's about it.

vsef 6y ago
The issue is that using an overinflated figure for the scale of the vacancy problem leads to the incorrect conclusion that meaningful change can happen by solving an alleged vacancy crisis. It can't. The scale is not large enough. It is a convenient issue to misdirect attention to for groups of diverse political leanings. Progressives and wealthy homeowners both can avoid any of the messy realities of needing to permit new housing while pretending as though there's this more politically palatable thing they can do instead.

plank_time 6y ago

I grew up in Vancouver since the 80s.Vancouverites cannot complain about not enough housing. In the 35 years since I came to Vancouver as a kid, there are so many condos everywhere, it looks like a bad joke. The massive amount of new housing made no difference housing prices which have never seen a crash in 40 years.

epistasis 6y ago
Seems like maybe it wasn't actually a massive amount of new housing? Having been to Vancouver, the only thing that seems like a joke is the massive amount of land that is reserved only for multi-million dollar single unit homes, and the lack of space where apartment buildings are allowed. Vancouver is beautiful, has great transit, but needs a lot more apartment buildings.

shaggyfrog 6y ago

The foreign buyers tax and the speculation tax had a demonstrable effect on the market here in Vancouver: https://twitter.com/ianjamesyoung70/status/1371212355170832385 https://twitter.com/ianjamesyoung70/status/13712123551708323... Meanwhile, real estate prices are up for the whole country: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-bubble-small-towns-1.5973134 https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-bubble-small-towns-...

dleslie 6y ago
Noticeable but not a panacea; with the way folks talked about it you'd think the _only_ cause of housing price increase was foreign speculation, when in fact it turned out to be an altogether minor factor.
- shaggyfrog 6y ago
  Foreign ownership has been shown conclusively to be a major factor, if not the most important, in real estate pricing in Vancouver.

jim-jim-jim 6y ago

It turns out the problem wasn't foreign investors, but investors full stop. The real solution is to institute a tax, much higher than 2%, on any second, third, etc purchase and make the very notion of an "investment property" prohibitively expensive. The housing market would look very different if everybody had to live in their property instead of engaging in transparently parasitic activity like speculation/landlording. If there's still not enough space after these policies are implemented, maybe then we can entertain the YIMBYs' sqwaking.

dleslie 6y ago
Owners will just pass that expense on to market renters, since there isn't much in the way of alternative rental housing.
- jim-jim-jim 6y ago
  Combine it with caps on rent increases.
  - epistasis 6y ago
    You will still keep people out of the city that want to live there. Rent increases will be replaced with wait lists. I really wonder, why are you so opposed to giving people what they want, which just so happens to also meet BC's climate goals? Multi unit housing is much much better for the environment.
    - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
      > Rent increases will be replaced with wait lists. That is basically what happened when I lived in Switzerland. Places were let at reasonable prices, but there was so much competition for supply that your best bet was to find something overpriced.
      - Leherenn 6y ago
        If the prices are up due to competition, it might be expensive, but it's not overpriced.

imtringued 6y ago

I don't know why many people fail to grasp that prices are signals, they are information. If prices are high, there isn't enough housing for everyone. By messing with the price signal and reducing it artificially through things like rent control you are telling everyone that there is enough housing but there simply isn't. From the perspective of a politician this is very good for their career. It's the "fake it", mentality except you never intend to do the "until you make it" part.

hackeraccount 6y ago
[Little Bill viciously kicks English Bob] Little Bill Daggett : I guess you think I'm kicking you, Bob. But it ain't so. What I'm doing is talking, you hear? I'm talking to all those villains down there in Kansas. I'm talking to all those villains in Missouri. And all those villains down there in Cheyenne. And what I'm saying is there ain't no whore's gold. And if there was, how they wouldn't want to come looking for it anyhow.