14 ms·

Does anyone expect covid to be a significant cause of death in the US past, say, May 15? I guess if we get another wave very soon, maybe it could persist. But i

Does anyone expect covid to be a significant cause of death in the US past, say, May 15? I guess if we get another wave very soon, maybe it could persist. But it just seems like this is on its way out between organic immunity and vaccine immunity (especially because the latter was focused on the vulnerable). I'm not an expert, so don't take this as advice to go coughing on everyone. But we all have to make some decisions based on imperfect information and it seems like covid is nearly knocked out. There is some concern over another wave, but it might just be minor cases from unvaccinated young people. That hopefully won't lead to a lot more deaths.

roywiggins 6y ago
We are already seeing the beginning of a new wave in Michigan. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities. > “I do think this could be the beginning of a third surge,” Dr. Khaldun said, after an initial rush of cases in Michigan last March and April, followed by a surge in October and November. “I am concerned. But I also think there are things that we can do today that will start to turn that curve down.” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea...
- deleted 6y ago
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- seizethecheese 6y ago
  Sure, a new wave of cases, but will it translate to deaths? My understanding is that most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%.
  - hammock 6y ago
    >most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%. In the US, most (59%) deaths come from people aged 75+ according to CDC. People aged 75+ make up roughly 12% of the population.
  - tyingq 6y ago
    "we have vaccinated over 30%" Some places are at much lower percentages. "Fully vaccinated" varies from ~12% in Utah to ~24% in New Mexico. 17% overall for the US.
    - flatline 6y ago
      New Mexico is currently at 48.4% of the eligible population with at least one dose, which recent research indicates is at least 80% effective. Research also indicates that the non-eligible population - children - are not as likely to spread or contract the disease. By mid-May I expect many more states to lift mask mandates, for venues to open at near 100% capacity, etc. People will still be dying from COVID, 80-90% effective still leaves a lot of people vulnerable. But that has not stopped us so far!
      - Baeocystin 6y ago
        The 80-90% numbers are for symptomatic Covid. The protection against hospitalization/death seems to be close to 100%, which is fantastic news.
        kmonsen 6y ago
        Yeah, people are reading the effective number wrong. It is very close to 100% in protecting against hospitalization/death, which is what we really care about. If we could vaccinate 100% (perhaps at some time interval), this would be over.
        roywiggins 6y ago
        I think it's likely that the real-world protection against death is actually lower than 100%- immune compromised people exist, and are liable to be comparatively poorly protected. And they're not part of the big efficacy trials. Ideally you can protect them by suppressing the virus by herd immunity, which I think is actually a viable prospect with these vaccines.
- nradov 6y ago
  We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude that that many younger people contracted the virus through participating in sports activities, as opposed to other activities. That seems like unscientific and irresponsible speculation.
  - Godel_unicode 6y ago
    Do you know that to be true, or is this speculation on your part? Just because you don't have the data doesn't mean it doesn't exist (unless you're saying that you're an epidemiologist in Michigan?)
    - krona 6y ago
      The null hypothesis is that we don't know why/how they contracted the virus. Parent doesn't have to know it's true, or be an expert in anything.
      - roenxi 6y ago
        Humans have been dealing with respiratory diseases since well before the dawn of recorded history. An article on nytimes.com proves nothing, but the null hypothesis (for a trained and educated medical professional) is not going to be "I dunno". The null hypothesis is "this will behave like [most similar virus I know about] and humans action will be causing spread in a manner following the epidemiological studies I have read". COVID shouldn't be so much of a mystery any more, it has been 12 months of the most focused study the world medical profession has ever done. The only thing holding our knowledge back of the short term behaviour of COVID is ourselves at this point. We've had time to watch the disease play out multiple times.
      - Godel_unicode 6y ago
        Their exact statement was: "We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude" Your argument, then, is that one can make a confident affirmative argument about the null hypothesis absent any evidence and be correct in so doing...?
- chmod600 6y ago
  I don't see how that makes May 15 and beyond look any worse. A wave now means more organic immunity as well as more tranmission in the short term. But with so many vulnerable people already vaccinated, and so much organic immunity already, do you really think it will be a six-week-long wave? Probably not. And in 6 weeks, that just means millions more will be vaccinated and younger people will have even more organic immunity. In other words, there may be another surge, but it will probably be the last one, and probably over by May 15. Again, non expert, don't cough on people, etc.
  - mikeyouse 6y ago
    My friend's mom was just admitted to a hospital on the East side of Michigan with really, really bad Covid. Opening day for baseball is today, cases are surging like crazy and everyone is just pretending like it's over. I hope that things improve in 6 weeks, but I'm really pessimistic at the moment.
    - sharken 6y ago
      Michigan is at 30% vaccinated with at least one dose according to https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/michigan/26/ https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracke... So things are better than in most places and will continually get better.
      - mikeyouse 6y ago
        Yeah, it will eventually get better, but I have family who are physicians who are swamped again and friends with relatives in ERs and ICUs.. Hard to be too optimistic at the moment. NYTimes' latest concurs; https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea... > Michigan has more recent cases per capita than any other state, and has seen them soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The nation’s top five metro areas in recent cases per capita are all in Michigan: Jackson, Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Monroe. ... > Health officials partly attributed the rapid rise in cases to the B.1.1.7 variant that was originally identified in Britain and is widespread in Michigan. But they have also observed a broader return to prepandemic life seen in a relaxing of mask wearing, social distancing and other strategies meant to slow the spread of the virus — many weeks before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated. On Thursday, Michigan officials announced that they had identified their first case of the P.1 variant, which has spread widely in Brazil and has now been found in more than 20 U.S. states. ... > Dr. Joneigh S. Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said on Tuesday that 50 percent of state residents over 65 were fully vaccinated, a sign of progress that the most vulnerable population is closer to protection from Covid-19. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.
redisman 6y ago
I you look at Israels numbers, it seems like the vaccination herd immunity is slow but powerful. They're at early 2020 numbers now.
knowaveragejoe 6y ago
The biggest worry would be a new vaccine-resistant variant at this point, right? From my limited understanding, the big biotech companies involved can respond relatively quickly, but it may become a game of whack-a-mole.
- distrill 6y ago
  This is how the flu shot works. I don't see how this would be that big of a deal, we get shots for previous pandemic strains every year.
  - bcrosby95 6y ago
    > we get shots for previous pandemic strains every year. That's not exactly how the flu shot works. They make an educated guess as to which strain will become most widespread, then develop the corresponding vaccine. Years that the flu shot isn't as effective is when they guess the wrong strain.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      Yep, and next year is going to be a total shot in the dark for people formulating flu vaccines. Nobody's getting flu because COVID precautions are effective against flu, too. But, pigs and birds are, and their flu viruses jump over to us pretty readily. My guess is that next year's flu season is going to be a lot worse than more recent ones because of this.
      - yellowapple 6y ago
        On the bright side, the practice we've (hopefully) had with masks, hand washing, and personal space should hopefully carry over to flu seasons in the future. If it does get severe, then we know what to do. Whether we do it, though, is another question altogether.
        pmiller2 6y ago
jariel 6y ago
'Another wave' is hitting right now in Canada. 50% of Republicans are wary of taking the vaccine. (Edit: that was Sep. 20' data. The partisan imbalance is now less with 56% of Republicans more or less opting in, notably, African Americans, theoretically 'most at risk' (we don' know exactly why) have the most hesitancy by race with only 61% planning to take it. [1]) Surprising number of elderly are not taking the vaccine, for a variety of reasons - access to information, travel, knowledge, language. (Edit: more than 25% of age >80 in Ontario have been eligible and have not taken the vaccine. That's a 'very high number' for those most at risk. Toronto is now having mobile vans go door to door, esp. where there are high concentrations of elderly) [2] For the same reason not everyone votes - a lot of people won't end up taking it. I think the risk is that if there are 'no protocols' in place and we have the new more aggressive versions and lower rates of vaccination than we think ... And we could definitely have another wave during the summer. I believe the next few months will be fickle we should keep our guard up until 'done is done'. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-already-have/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share... [2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-vaccine-ontario-booking-appointments-1.5958792 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-vaccine-onta...
- seppin 6y ago
  Also, mutations are impossible to predict. If this becomes a new flu every year, the entire process will start over.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
jsight 6y ago
I think that is going to depend on your definition of "significant". I think at best we would have similar numbers to Israel right now by then. That would still represent >250 deaths per day. (EDIT: If there is some reason that our rates will fall more quickly, I'd love to hear it.)
- therealdrag0 6y ago
  Seems about right. Israel appears to have twice the percentage of their population vaccinated and half the death rate compared to US. Current deaths in US is ~900/d, so half that is ~450. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=vaccinePeople&data-source=owid&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=Israel&extraData=deaths-daily-7&extraDataScale=separately#countries-normalized http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countri...
- chmod600 6y ago
  That's on the order of a bad flu season, right? So not enough that it should affect our behavior in major ways. The argument for our lifestyle changes was always to "slow the spread" or "bend the curve". It seems we've done that about as well as we can.
  - jsight 6y ago
    I think that would still that would still be 40% or more higher than our worst flu season? Its definitely getting into the same order of magnitude at that point, though. It'd be hard to argue for stringent lockdowns, IMO.
    - wizzwizz4 6y ago
      That's the with-lockdowns rate, is it not? The without-lockdowns rate would be much higher.
      - azernik 6y ago
fullshark 6y ago
I don't expect COVID to ever go away, so I expect COVID deaths to be a thing forever. My guess is we all move on regardless and accept a slightly deadlier flu season each year.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  No, COVID as a disease probably won’t go away entirely for longer than a human lifetime, I would guess. And, even then, it would probably either end up as a much milder disease. But, we can probably reduce the number of cases per year to near 0 in the US, if all eligible people get vaccinated. Wiki told me there were under 500 confirmed cases in the US in 2018, and Google told me that r_0 for measles is between 12 and 18. COVID is nowhere near that transmissible.
  - fullshark 6y ago
    > if all eligible people get vaccinated. I don't see that ever happening, at least for another generation or two.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      Neither do I, considering how politicized the whole COVID situation got.
  - tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
    Doesn't have to be all eligible people. There's also natural immunity for the ones who'd rather have that than the scary scientist-designed shot. The most irresponsible ones have the best chance of getting nature's vaccine. Depending on how long immunity lasts, that might drive it very low. And as far as I know, the vaccines are highly effective and very few people are actually medically unable to get this vaccine. Honestly, if only people who chose not to be protected from it die... too bad for them.
JPKab 6y ago
The public health authorities won't be honest about any of this. Anytime the choice is between controlling the behavior of stupid people vs. telling the public the truth, they choose the former every time. "Organic immunity"? You mean that thing that the public health authorities are pretending doesn't exist, therefore requiring me, a person who caught, tested positive, and recovered from COVID in February to get vaccinated? Yeah, let me know when they stop pretending. I'm willing to get a vaccine, but annoyed because it has no benefit for me and only risk (albeit low). Edit: Downvote all you want, but I was a teen in the 90s when the public health authorities pretended like heterosexuals engaging in standard sexual activities were at equal risk of catching HIV compared to IV drug users and gay men. They weren't remotely at the same risk, by orders of magnitude. They wanted to promote safe sex and abstinence in teens and young people, which is a good thing, but they didn't hesitate to use the fear of HIV as a tool to (dishonestly) achieve that goal.
- zzleeper 6y ago
  I have two friends who got covid twice. One had it first in July and then in January. Second one was brutal, maybe b/c it was likely the Brazilian strand, or maybe because the second time your lungs are still recovering. Who knows. But I would advise you to take it.
  - JPKab 6y ago
    Statistically, they likely had a false positive the first test. Columbia University commissioned a study on 50k people in Qatar (covid spread was rampant there) who were confirmed positive, and after 7 months, catching and recovering from it provided immunity at a threshold exceeding the Pfizer vaccine. Yes, there are people who have caught it twice. They are rare, and the paper highlighted that a likely explanation was false positives in the original testing. I'll take the vaccine, but shouldn't be required to.
    - zzleeper 6y ago
      It was not a rapid test; he got two positive PCR tests paid by his employer. Mind you, this is in Perú (he works at a mining firm) which was hit really hard in July and then now (one of the hardest per capita deaths). Also, the Qatar study might not say much about the newer strands
tyingq 6y ago
Hard to tell, as it depends on personal choices. If everyone in a high risk group gets immunized, sure. Anecdotal but for my 2 appointments, the immunization centers clearly had a lot more capacity than customers. Lots of unused space and not-busy workers. I would guess because people that should be in line chose not to be.
- usrusr 6y ago
  Did they also have lots of unused vaccine? Given the cost of every additional day until back to normal it would be foolish to set up for anything less than best case supply, and then some.
  - tyingq 6y ago
    No idea. I would guess so, because of all the various types of workers that were doing nothing. And this wasn't a walk-up thing, you had to have an appointment.
  - xen2xen1 6y ago
    Buddy of mine got the vaccine because someone from the pharmacy was walking around the store asking if anyone wanted a spare dose so it would not go to waste.
- sandworm101 6y ago
  Or they had more needles, more staff, than vaccine. If there is extra, send it to canada. Their shortage us getting less funny by the day.
  - tyingq 6y ago
    Maybe, but wouldn't they send excess workers home? To be clear, these were places where an appointment was needed, so they should have had a clear picture of demand.
    - sandworm101 6y ago
sharken 6y ago
Depends if you can distinguish between dead because of Corona and dead with Corona, i.e. the Coronavirus was not the actual cause of death. In Europe each country has their own definition of the above, making it nearly impossible to compare. But judging from how things are going in Texas and Mississippi right now, there is a high chance of things being normal there on the May 15. Mind you it does require around 25-30% vaccinated before you can say that.
- stjohnswarts 6y ago
  Texas is getting ready to spike again. There are counties where people are actively refusing to get vaccines because Trump told them not to. City folks are actually driving an extra hour or two to those areas to get vaccinated because they believe in science and that the vaccine can help while the locals scoff at them. I think texas will see a huge surge in the rural areas where they don't believe in science within the next month-ish.
  - chasd00 6y ago
    i live in Texas, i expect to see a rise just because new cases have fallen so far so fast and the broad re-opening of the economy. Today, there was the slightest little tick up in average new cases but I do not expect to see a surge like we did over the holidays. Further, i'm 100% onboard reopening the state. There's not a lot of difference between states that locked down hard and states that did not. If there isn't a very large and measurable advantage to crushing the livelihoods of the population then don't do it. https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/ https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru... I got dose 1 of Moderna yesterday (first day i was eligible).
  - refurb 6y ago
    You comments come across as much lower quality when you keep slipping in the politics.
  - tjs8rj 6y ago
    I’d be surprised if the anti vax sentiment has really flipped that much, as in: remember when then vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris said on tv that she doesn’t trust the vaccine? Or when the governor of California said he wouldn’t take it unless it was independently reviewed by California? Or when the governor of New York said he doesn’t trust the vaccine? ~40% of black people currently are wary of taking the vaccine because of statements like that, are those the antivaxxers you’re referring to?
overtonwhy 6y ago
Your statements are inaccurate. In Michigan things are worse than ever thanks to the UK variant, and the Brazilian variant was just detected here also. There are multiple pages of data, links on the bottom to change page (it's a weird layout): https://www.accesskent.com/Health/covid-19-data.htm https://www.accesskent.com/Health/covid-19-data.htm
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Daily cases are trending up, but still below where they were for much of November and December, and many more people are immune than were during those months. There is clearly a surge, but it's not yet worse than the previous one, and hopefully vaccination reduces the impact. (I'm looking at the daily cases tab on https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173---,00.html https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_9817... ) Anecdotes about the variants spreading much more rapidly are going around though.
- cwhiz 6y ago
  Michigan 0.24 deaths per 100k. Cases up, but hospitalizations and deaths down. Giant nothingburger.
  - overtonwhy 6y ago
    Did you actually look at the graph? It's quite disconcerting.
    - cwhiz 6y ago
      I did. Did you? 0.3 deaths per 100k across the state. But if we keep moving the goalposts, we can stay hysterical for as long as we want.
mensetmanusman 6y ago
It will become endemic like HIV, which kills about a million per year over the past few decades.
sneak 6y ago
I do. I expect the emergence of new variants that spread in the unvaccinated either in places without masks (and resistant to vaccinations) like the US south, or (more probably) in the 96% of human beings that aren't Americans (and have much less access to covid vaccines), and the vaccine pressure selecting for the spread of variants that are different enough for the current set of vaccines to be less effective. I am not an expert, this is just an educated guess by a layperson. I also anticipate a major backlash against those who would refuse vaccines, as well as an impending necessary overhaul of the process and timeline for bringing slightly modified vaccines to market (as a clear need to quickly protect against new variants or even new strains emerges).
ummonk 6y ago
I think it's possible that in some communities with high proportions of anti-vaxxers, Rt could remain at 1 and continue to cause deaths a little past May 15th before organic herd immunity is achieved.
stjohnswarts 6y ago
The wave has already started, there are plenty antivaxxers out there who would rather die than take it. US uptake of the vaccine will be 70% max because of the nonbelievers and antiscience people that form the core of Trump's cadre. There's still plenty people left to kill and I bet we will hit at least 600,000 (aka another 50000) by the end of the year. There absolutely will be a 4th wave.
- mapme 6y ago
  The positive note is that we are already at 74% of over 65 w/ one dose, so hopefully we can push that to 85% and drastically lower deaths. Vaccine acceptance in 65+ is very high
namuol 6y ago
Yes.
tunesmith 6y ago
I think the answer to your question depends on the conclusion that may come after it. Like if it's "therefore, past May 15 we should all just act as we did pre-COVID", that's different than "therefore, that's overall very good news for society". There's a quantitative/qualitative thing going on here. We could be mostly "back to normal" in a broad numbers sense, while immuno-compromised people are left with a much more dangerous reality than they faced pre-COVID. They're left hoping for test/trace/eradication. Personally, I'll feel pretty safe hanging out, even in closed-in areas, with other vaccinated people. But out and about, the decision to wear a mask will be more predicated on the actual disease prevalence numbers in that area. And we'll all continue to wait on data of how long the vaccines last.
kmonsen 6y ago
I think May 15 is a bit early, but if you say for example 4th of July I think you are correct. At least by that date everyone who wants a vaccine in the US should be able to get it. And they do work incredibly well, enough to lift all restrictions and even start traveling again. I fully expect to be able to go home to Europe to visit family and have some vacation by the end of the summer.
- ghaff 6y ago
  For me, beginning of July is probably the relevant date, I usually go up to Maine then. So I'll have my vaccinations but probably won't change behavior all that much through late May/June and will (rightly or wrongly) expect more or less back to "normal" (doing heavy lifting) in July.
- OnACoffeeBreak 6y ago
  Don't travel plans, to Europe in your case, also depend on vaccinations and organic immunity (from infections) at your destination? Specifically, I'm not aware of studies demonstrating viral load carrying capacity of immunized individuals. In other words, how would you, as an immunized individual know that you're not a virus carrier?
  - helij 6y ago
    By that time (4th of July) most people in Europe will be vaccinated as well.
    - wildpeaks 6y ago
      I hope so, but the way things are going, I doubt I'll be able to get it this year at all.
    - dragontamer 6y ago
      Europe has been slower on the rollout than USA. I'd give them 3 extra months compared to USA, maybe October or so. Once the USA is largely vaccinated, all of the supply the USA was buying up can pour into other countries.
fukmbas 6y ago
It's going to continue to wreak havoc I rual areas for years to come. Unfortunately these victims of propaganda are willing to die for their own made up narratives. Meanwhile I really don't care what they do. Good luck
cwhiz 6y ago
It is already not a significant cause of death. Highest death rate in any state is 0.54 per 100k people.

roywiggins 6y ago

We are already seeing the beginning of a new wave in Michigan. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities. > “I do think this could be the beginning of a third surge,” Dr. Khaldun said, after an initial rush of cases in Michigan last March and April, followed by a surge in October and November. “I am concerned. But I also think there are things that we can do today that will start to turn that curve down.” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea...

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
seizethecheese 6y ago
Sure, a new wave of cases, but will it translate to deaths? My understanding is that most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%.
- hammock 6y ago
  >most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%. In the US, most (59%) deaths come from people aged 75+ according to CDC. People aged 75+ make up roughly 12% of the population.
- tyingq 6y ago
  "we have vaccinated over 30%" Some places are at much lower percentages. "Fully vaccinated" varies from ~12% in Utah to ~24% in New Mexico. 17% overall for the US.
  - flatline 6y ago
    New Mexico is currently at 48.4% of the eligible population with at least one dose, which recent research indicates is at least 80% effective. Research also indicates that the non-eligible population - children - are not as likely to spread or contract the disease. By mid-May I expect many more states to lift mask mandates, for venues to open at near 100% capacity, etc. People will still be dying from COVID, 80-90% effective still leaves a lot of people vulnerable. But that has not stopped us so far!
    - Baeocystin 6y ago
      The 80-90% numbers are for symptomatic Covid. The protection against hospitalization/death seems to be close to 100%, which is fantastic news.
      - kmonsen 6y ago
        Yeah, people are reading the effective number wrong. It is very close to 100% in protecting against hospitalization/death, which is what we really care about. If we could vaccinate 100% (perhaps at some time interval), this would be over.
        roywiggins 6y ago
        I think it's likely that the real-world protection against death is actually lower than 100%- immune compromised people exist, and are liable to be comparatively poorly protected. And they're not part of the big efficacy trials. Ideally you can protect them by suppressing the virus by herd immunity, which I think is actually a viable prospect with these vaccines.
nradov 6y ago
We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude that that many younger people contracted the virus through participating in sports activities, as opposed to other activities. That seems like unscientific and irresponsible speculation.
- Godel_unicode 6y ago
  Do you know that to be true, or is this speculation on your part? Just because you don't have the data doesn't mean it doesn't exist (unless you're saying that you're an epidemiologist in Michigan?)
  - krona 6y ago
    The null hypothesis is that we don't know why/how they contracted the virus. Parent doesn't have to know it's true, or be an expert in anything.
    - roenxi 6y ago
      Humans have been dealing with respiratory diseases since well before the dawn of recorded history. An article on nytimes.com proves nothing, but the null hypothesis (for a trained and educated medical professional) is not going to be "I dunno". The null hypothesis is "this will behave like [most similar virus I know about] and humans action will be causing spread in a manner following the epidemiological studies I have read". COVID shouldn't be so much of a mystery any more, it has been 12 months of the most focused study the world medical profession has ever done. The only thing holding our knowledge back of the short term behaviour of COVID is ourselves at this point. We've had time to watch the disease play out multiple times.
    - Godel_unicode 6y ago
      Their exact statement was: "We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude" Your argument, then, is that one can make a confident affirmative argument about the null hypothesis absent any evidence and be correct in so doing...?
chmod600 6y ago
I don't see how that makes May 15 and beyond look any worse. A wave now means more organic immunity as well as more tranmission in the short term. But with so many vulnerable people already vaccinated, and so much organic immunity already, do you really think it will be a six-week-long wave? Probably not. And in 6 weeks, that just means millions more will be vaccinated and younger people will have even more organic immunity. In other words, there may be another surge, but it will probably be the last one, and probably over by May 15. Again, non expert, don't cough on people, etc.
- mikeyouse 6y ago
  My friend's mom was just admitted to a hospital on the East side of Michigan with really, really bad Covid. Opening day for baseball is today, cases are surging like crazy and everyone is just pretending like it's over. I hope that things improve in 6 weeks, but I'm really pessimistic at the moment.
  - sharken 6y ago
    Michigan is at 30% vaccinated with at least one dose according to https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/michigan/26/ https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracke... So things are better than in most places and will continually get better.
    - mikeyouse 6y ago
      Yeah, it will eventually get better, but I have family who are physicians who are swamped again and friends with relatives in ERs and ICUs.. Hard to be too optimistic at the moment. NYTimes' latest concurs; https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea... > Michigan has more recent cases per capita than any other state, and has seen them soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The nation’s top five metro areas in recent cases per capita are all in Michigan: Jackson, Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Monroe. ... > Health officials partly attributed the rapid rise in cases to the B.1.1.7 variant that was originally identified in Britain and is widespread in Michigan. But they have also observed a broader return to prepandemic life seen in a relaxing of mask wearing, social distancing and other strategies meant to slow the spread of the virus — many weeks before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated. On Thursday, Michigan officials announced that they had identified their first case of the P.1 variant, which has spread widely in Brazil and has now been found in more than 20 U.S. states. ... > Dr. Joneigh S. Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said on Tuesday that 50 percent of state residents over 65 were fully vaccinated, a sign of progress that the most vulnerable population is closer to protection from Covid-19. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.

redisman 6y ago

I you look at Israels numbers, it seems like the vaccination herd immunity is slow but powerful. They're at early 2020 numbers now.

knowaveragejoe 6y ago

The biggest worry would be a new vaccine-resistant variant at this point, right? From my limited understanding, the big biotech companies involved can respond relatively quickly, but it may become a game of whack-a-mole.

distrill 6y ago
This is how the flu shot works. I don't see how this would be that big of a deal, we get shots for previous pandemic strains every year.
- bcrosby95 6y ago
  > we get shots for previous pandemic strains every year. That's not exactly how the flu shot works. They make an educated guess as to which strain will become most widespread, then develop the corresponding vaccine. Years that the flu shot isn't as effective is when they guess the wrong strain.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    Yep, and next year is going to be a total shot in the dark for people formulating flu vaccines. Nobody's getting flu because COVID precautions are effective against flu, too. But, pigs and birds are, and their flu viruses jump over to us pretty readily. My guess is that next year's flu season is going to be a lot worse than more recent ones because of this.
    - yellowapple 6y ago
      On the bright side, the practice we've (hopefully) had with masks, hand washing, and personal space should hopefully carry over to flu seasons in the future. If it does get severe, then we know what to do. Whether we do it, though, is another question altogether.
      - pmiller2 6y ago

jariel 6y ago

'Another wave' is hitting right now in Canada. 50% of Republicans are wary of taking the vaccine. (Edit: that was Sep. 20' data. The partisan imbalance is now less with 56% of Republicans more or less opting in, notably, African Americans, theoretically 'most at risk' (we don' know exactly why) have the most hesitancy by race with only 61% planning to take it. [1]) Surprising number of elderly are not taking the vaccine, for a variety of reasons - access to information, travel, knowledge, language. (Edit: more than 25% of age >80 in Ontario have been eligible and have not taken the vaccine. That's a 'very high number' for those most at risk. Toronto is now having mobile vans go door to door, esp. where there are high concentrations of elderly) [2] For the same reason not everyone votes - a lot of people won't end up taking it. I think the risk is that if there are 'no protocols' in place and we have the new more aggressive versions and lower rates of vaccination than we think ... And we could definitely have another wave during the summer. I believe the next few months will be fickle we should keep our guard up until 'done is done'. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-already-have/ https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share... [2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-vaccine-ontario-booking-appointments-1.5958792 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-vaccine-onta...

seppin 6y ago
Also, mutations are impossible to predict. If this becomes a new flu every year, the entire process will start over.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

jsight 6y ago

I think that is going to depend on your definition of "significant". I think at best we would have similar numbers to Israel right now by then. That would still represent >250 deaths per day. (EDIT: If there is some reason that our rates will fall more quickly, I'd love to hear it.)

therealdrag0 6y ago
Seems about right. Israel appears to have twice the percentage of their population vaccinated and half the death rate compared to US. Current deaths in US is ~900/d, so half that is ~450. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=vaccinePeople&data-source=owid&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=Israel&extraData=deaths-daily-7&extraDataScale=separately#countries-normalized http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countri...
chmod600 6y ago
That's on the order of a bad flu season, right? So not enough that it should affect our behavior in major ways. The argument for our lifestyle changes was always to "slow the spread" or "bend the curve". It seems we've done that about as well as we can.
- jsight 6y ago
  I think that would still that would still be 40% or more higher than our worst flu season? Its definitely getting into the same order of magnitude at that point, though. It'd be hard to argue for stringent lockdowns, IMO.
  - wizzwizz4 6y ago
    That's the with-lockdowns rate, is it not? The without-lockdowns rate would be much higher.
    - azernik 6y ago

fullshark 6y ago

I don't expect COVID to ever go away, so I expect COVID deaths to be a thing forever. My guess is we all move on regardless and accept a slightly deadlier flu season each year.

pmiller2 6y ago
No, COVID as a disease probably won’t go away entirely for longer than a human lifetime, I would guess. And, even then, it would probably either end up as a much milder disease. But, we can probably reduce the number of cases per year to near 0 in the US, if all eligible people get vaccinated. Wiki told me there were under 500 confirmed cases in the US in 2018, and Google told me that r_0 for measles is between 12 and 18. COVID is nowhere near that transmissible.
- fullshark 6y ago
  > if all eligible people get vaccinated. I don't see that ever happening, at least for another generation or two.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    Neither do I, considering how politicized the whole COVID situation got.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
  Doesn't have to be all eligible people. There's also natural immunity for the ones who'd rather have that than the scary scientist-designed shot. The most irresponsible ones have the best chance of getting nature's vaccine. Depending on how long immunity lasts, that might drive it very low. And as far as I know, the vaccines are highly effective and very few people are actually medically unable to get this vaccine. Honestly, if only people who chose not to be protected from it die... too bad for them.

JPKab 6y ago

The public health authorities won't be honest about any of this. Anytime the choice is between controlling the behavior of stupid people vs. telling the public the truth, they choose the former every time. "Organic immunity"? You mean that thing that the public health authorities are pretending doesn't exist, therefore requiring me, a person who caught, tested positive, and recovered from COVID in February to get vaccinated? Yeah, let me know when they stop pretending. I'm willing to get a vaccine, but annoyed because it has no benefit for me and only risk (albeit low). Edit: Downvote all you want, but I was a teen in the 90s when the public health authorities pretended like heterosexuals engaging in standard sexual activities were at equal risk of catching HIV compared to IV drug users and gay men. They weren't remotely at the same risk, by orders of magnitude. They wanted to promote safe sex and abstinence in teens and young people, which is a good thing, but they didn't hesitate to use the fear of HIV as a tool to (dishonestly) achieve that goal.

zzleeper 6y ago
I have two friends who got covid twice. One had it first in July and then in January. Second one was brutal, maybe b/c it was likely the Brazilian strand, or maybe because the second time your lungs are still recovering. Who knows. But I would advise you to take it.
- JPKab 6y ago
  Statistically, they likely had a false positive the first test. Columbia University commissioned a study on 50k people in Qatar (covid spread was rampant there) who were confirmed positive, and after 7 months, catching and recovering from it provided immunity at a threshold exceeding the Pfizer vaccine. Yes, there are people who have caught it twice. They are rare, and the paper highlighted that a likely explanation was false positives in the original testing. I'll take the vaccine, but shouldn't be required to.
  - zzleeper 6y ago
    It was not a rapid test; he got two positive PCR tests paid by his employer. Mind you, this is in Perú (he works at a mining firm) which was hit really hard in July and then now (one of the hardest per capita deaths). Also, the Qatar study might not say much about the newer strands

tyingq 6y ago

Hard to tell, as it depends on personal choices. If everyone in a high risk group gets immunized, sure. Anecdotal but for my 2 appointments, the immunization centers clearly had a lot more capacity than customers. Lots of unused space and not-busy workers. I would guess because people that should be in line chose not to be.

usrusr 6y ago
Did they also have lots of unused vaccine? Given the cost of every additional day until back to normal it would be foolish to set up for anything less than best case supply, and then some.
- tyingq 6y ago
  No idea. I would guess so, because of all the various types of workers that were doing nothing. And this wasn't a walk-up thing, you had to have an appointment.
- xen2xen1 6y ago
  Buddy of mine got the vaccine because someone from the pharmacy was walking around the store asking if anyone wanted a spare dose so it would not go to waste.
sandworm101 6y ago
Or they had more needles, more staff, than vaccine. If there is extra, send it to canada. Their shortage us getting less funny by the day.
- tyingq 6y ago
  Maybe, but wouldn't they send excess workers home? To be clear, these were places where an appointment was needed, so they should have had a clear picture of demand.
  - sandworm101 6y ago

sharken 6y ago

Depends if you can distinguish between dead because of Corona and dead with Corona, i.e. the Coronavirus was not the actual cause of death. In Europe each country has their own definition of the above, making it nearly impossible to compare. But judging from how things are going in Texas and Mississippi right now, there is a high chance of things being normal there on the May 15. Mind you it does require around 25-30% vaccinated before you can say that.

stjohnswarts 6y ago
Texas is getting ready to spike again. There are counties where people are actively refusing to get vaccines because Trump told them not to. City folks are actually driving an extra hour or two to those areas to get vaccinated because they believe in science and that the vaccine can help while the locals scoff at them. I think texas will see a huge surge in the rural areas where they don't believe in science within the next month-ish.
- chasd00 6y ago
  i live in Texas, i expect to see a rise just because new cases have fallen so far so fast and the broad re-opening of the economy. Today, there was the slightest little tick up in average new cases but I do not expect to see a surge like we did over the holidays. Further, i'm 100% onboard reopening the state. There's not a lot of difference between states that locked down hard and states that did not. If there isn't a very large and measurable advantage to crushing the livelihoods of the population then don't do it. https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/ https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronaviru... I got dose 1 of Moderna yesterday (first day i was eligible).
- refurb 6y ago
  You comments come across as much lower quality when you keep slipping in the politics.
- tjs8rj 6y ago
  I’d be surprised if the anti vax sentiment has really flipped that much, as in: remember when then vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris said on tv that she doesn’t trust the vaccine? Or when the governor of California said he wouldn’t take it unless it was independently reviewed by California? Or when the governor of New York said he doesn’t trust the vaccine? ~40% of black people currently are wary of taking the vaccine because of statements like that, are those the antivaxxers you’re referring to?

overtonwhy 6y ago

Your statements are inaccurate. In Michigan things are worse than ever thanks to the UK variant, and the Brazilian variant was just detected here also. There are multiple pages of data, links on the bottom to change page (it's a weird layout): https://www.accesskent.com/Health/covid-19-data.htm https://www.accesskent.com/Health/covid-19-data.htm

maxerickson 6y ago
Daily cases are trending up, but still below where they were for much of November and December, and many more people are immune than were during those months. There is clearly a surge, but it's not yet worse than the previous one, and hopefully vaccination reduces the impact. (I'm looking at the daily cases tab on https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173---,00.html https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_9817... ) Anecdotes about the variants spreading much more rapidly are going around though.
cwhiz 6y ago
Michigan 0.24 deaths per 100k. Cases up, but hospitalizations and deaths down. Giant nothingburger.
- overtonwhy 6y ago
  Did you actually look at the graph? It's quite disconcerting.
  - cwhiz 6y ago
    I did. Did you? 0.3 deaths per 100k across the state. But if we keep moving the goalposts, we can stay hysterical for as long as we want.

mensetmanusman 6y ago

It will become endemic like HIV, which kills about a million per year over the past few decades.

sneak 6y ago

I do. I expect the emergence of new variants that spread in the unvaccinated either in places without masks (and resistant to vaccinations) like the US south, or (more probably) in the 96% of human beings that aren't Americans (and have much less access to covid vaccines), and the vaccine pressure selecting for the spread of variants that are different enough for the current set of vaccines to be less effective. I am not an expert, this is just an educated guess by a layperson. I also anticipate a major backlash against those who would refuse vaccines, as well as an impending necessary overhaul of the process and timeline for bringing slightly modified vaccines to market (as a clear need to quickly protect against new variants or even new strains emerges).

ummonk 6y ago

I think it's possible that in some communities with high proportions of anti-vaxxers, Rt could remain at 1 and continue to cause deaths a little past May 15th before organic herd immunity is achieved.

stjohnswarts 6y ago

The wave has already started, there are plenty antivaxxers out there who would rather die than take it. US uptake of the vaccine will be 70% max because of the nonbelievers and antiscience people that form the core of Trump's cadre. There's still plenty people left to kill and I bet we will hit at least 600,000 (aka another 50000) by the end of the year. There absolutely will be a 4th wave.

mapme 6y ago
The positive note is that we are already at 74% of over 65 w/ one dose, so hopefully we can push that to 85% and drastically lower deaths. Vaccine acceptance in 65+ is very high

namuol 6y ago

Yes.

tunesmith 6y ago

I think the answer to your question depends on the conclusion that may come after it. Like if it's "therefore, past May 15 we should all just act as we did pre-COVID", that's different than "therefore, that's overall very good news for society". There's a quantitative/qualitative thing going on here. We could be mostly "back to normal" in a broad numbers sense, while immuno-compromised people are left with a much more dangerous reality than they faced pre-COVID. They're left hoping for test/trace/eradication. Personally, I'll feel pretty safe hanging out, even in closed-in areas, with other vaccinated people. But out and about, the decision to wear a mask will be more predicated on the actual disease prevalence numbers in that area. And we'll all continue to wait on data of how long the vaccines last.

kmonsen 6y ago

I think May 15 is a bit early, but if you say for example 4th of July I think you are correct. At least by that date everyone who wants a vaccine in the US should be able to get it. And they do work incredibly well, enough to lift all restrictions and even start traveling again. I fully expect to be able to go home to Europe to visit family and have some vacation by the end of the summer.

ghaff 6y ago
For me, beginning of July is probably the relevant date, I usually go up to Maine then. So I'll have my vaccinations but probably won't change behavior all that much through late May/June and will (rightly or wrongly) expect more or less back to "normal" (doing heavy lifting) in July.
OnACoffeeBreak 6y ago
Don't travel plans, to Europe in your case, also depend on vaccinations and organic immunity (from infections) at your destination? Specifically, I'm not aware of studies demonstrating viral load carrying capacity of immunized individuals. In other words, how would you, as an immunized individual know that you're not a virus carrier?
- helij 6y ago
  By that time (4th of July) most people in Europe will be vaccinated as well.
  - wildpeaks 6y ago
    I hope so, but the way things are going, I doubt I'll be able to get it this year at all.
  - dragontamer 6y ago
    Europe has been slower on the rollout than USA. I'd give them 3 extra months compared to USA, maybe October or so. Once the USA is largely vaccinated, all of the supply the USA was buying up can pour into other countries.

fukmbas 6y ago

It's going to continue to wreak havoc I rual areas for years to come. Unfortunately these victims of propaganda are willing to die for their own made up narratives. Meanwhile I really don't care what they do. Good luck

cwhiz 6y ago

It is already not a significant cause of death. Highest death rate in any state is 0.54 per 100k people.