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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan
- inetsee 6y agoI would imagine that one of the biggest concerns associated with China taking over Taiwan is that China would gain control over some of the most significant semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the world.
- spamizbad 6y agoYeah, but I imagine in such a scenario most of the talent that built that world-class semiconductor manufacturing would be resettled to Western Powers - most likely the United States.
- riku_iki 6y agounless they will be forced to stay after occupation.
- leke 6y agoYep, it's not exactly easy for people in Hong Kong to leave. Some have even been imprisoned trying to flee to Taiwan.
- pivx2bitcoin 6y agoHaving the knowhow to build the fabs, and having the fabs, are two different things. Intel has been struggling for a while with their fabs.
- Invictus0 6y agoWhen your country becomes a warzone and your workplace becomes a pile of rubble, other countries start to look a lot more attractive. If China tried to take Taiwan, I could see them losing a lot of the brains that built those fabs.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- icelancer 6y agoChina will invade Taiwan, seize their IP, and then approve exit visas for the best scientists/engineers from the conquered country? Seems pretty unlikely.
- Abishek_Muthian 6y agoSomeone mentioned in an earlier discussion here without sources that the TSMC is rigged to blow in case of such an event.
- djohnston 6y agoI definitely believe Taiwan would rather burn it than see it in the hands of their greatest adversary. Rigged to blow seems silly but I expect they would bomb it to dust.
- ruslan 6y agoBombing is not necessary. Ceasing supplies will turn it into dust in a moment of time, irreversibly. Consider Samsung factories in Texas that are still stalling, caused by quite short electric power outage.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- 1MachineElf 6y agoCoincidently, I was independently wondering about this too. The same measure is taken for other valuable targets. For example, many major bridges in the US are rigged to self-destruct in the event of capture during land invasion. You won't find much information about this online. All I can say is, there's a reason why many jobs at the US DOT require a security clearance. If you want to read up on another real world example of this, here's an article about how Switzerland implemented this: https://99percentinvisible.org/article/designed-for-demolition-why-the-swiss-rigged-critical-infrastructure-to-explode/ https://99percentinvisible.org/article/designed-for-demoliti... There is an interesting theory by Dimitry Khalezov concerning 9/11. He states that this was also done for the NYC World Trade Center and the Chicago Sears Tower. He claims the event occured because a bad actor gained control of this demolition system for the WTC, and that the planes were part of a cover story. It's an interesting explanation. Check it out if you're interested: https://youtu.be/IU7KRHOdnuo https://youtu.be/IU7KRHOdnuo
- ruslan 6y ago
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 6y agoThat's secondary to me imo. Primarily it would be a bloody conflict with significant loss of life. If China is victorious they would gain control over dirt that the world's best electronics industry used to exist on top of. The whole world loses.
- riku_iki 6y ago> Primarily it would be a bloody conflict with significant loss of life. or after initial action, US will refuse actively engage, and Taiwanese government surrender to safe own people lives.
- baby 6y agoI think this is negligible compared to the “era” that it would start. Taiwan is seen as a more westernized country and an attack on Taiwan would start a cold war-like era with China and the western world.
- whereis 6y agoIf China takes Taiwan, that would shift the balance of power due to Taiwan's role as the leading global chip fabricator. The most recent episode of the podcast ChinaTalk, "China's Chip Dreams", dated March 26, 2021, is relevant.
- leke 6y agoIt would be good for the rest of the world to start having an alternative source of chip development. It's really not a good idea to have such dependence on one producer you can trust.
- randomsearch 6y agoI guess you haven't been paying attention to recent announcements in the US... they are pursuing just that policy since Biden came into office.
- nomdep 6y agoSince Trump, but it is great that Biden kept it.
- randomsearch 6y agoNope, here’s one of the announcements: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-supply-chains-idUSKBN2AO13D https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-supply-chains-i...
- leereeves 6y agoNot at all surprising that Biden doesn't want to give Trump credit, but the push for more US chipmaking did begin under Trump: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-chip-makers-including-intel-seek-semiconductor-self-sufficiency-11589103002 https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-and-chip-makers-including... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/tsmc-to-build-us-chip-factory.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/tsmc-to-build-us-chip-factor...
- hawk_ 6y agoIf you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to stop other countries from getting involved on various grounds. Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support.
- Kinrany 6y agoI don't think they had or needed substantial local support in Crimea. A bunch of zealots will do.
- kelnos 6y agoI think you'd be hard pressed to find even a "bunch" of people in Taiwan who want to be under Beijing's rule, or would even consider that a tolerable compromise position. Certainly the country is far from unified on the idea of independence (though that particular movement has gotten stronger over the past couple decades), but culturally and politically, China and Taiwan are quite different and incompatible.
- BingoAhoy 6y agoFrom my second hand laymen sources, there are in fact pro China advocates in Tiawan. Also surprisingly enough, there was a sizable loyalist group in the American 13 colonies who supported continued British colonialism.
- neolog 6y agoWonder if they're from Taiwan, or were deployed there by Chinese government.
- tialaramex 6y agoOne obvious reason to support the British is that the British don't have slavery. Sure enough, those slaves who fought for the British and were evacuated with British troops became free men. Fighting for the colonists genuinely could mean you won, and then they said that's great, now back to the fields 'cos you won freedom for us not for you. Your great grandchildren might see freedom (after the Civil War) but you would not.
- mjevans 6y agoAs even the non-war (well, war on the pandemic) issues have shown is an issue across multiple industries. This is an implicit issue highlighted by in-sourcing or physically closer ally production in the report from a month or two ago. https://www.nscai.gov/2021-final-report/ https://www.nscai.gov/2021-final-report/
- boomboomsubban 6y agoOr "US Admirals in the Pacific use threat of Chinese attack on Taiwan to justify receiving billions more dollars." What a crock of shit. edit one of their given reasons for "fearing attack" is that Russia invaded Ukraine shortly after the Winter Olympics, and China has the Winter Olympics soon. The ulterior motive couldn't be more obvious.
- Supermancho 6y ago> The ulterior motive couldn't be more obvious. You haven't explained it well enough to claim it's obvious. You think it's a money grab (of some sort)? or that the operations which were barely telling in 2015 (https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china...) but of questionable efficacy in 2019 (https://news.usni.org/2019/05/03/report-china-cant-execute-major-amphibious-operations-direct-assault-on-taiwan https://news.usni.org/2019/05/03/report-china-cant-execute-m...) might all be a misunderstanding? The danger is real enough (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3980026 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3980026, which may be a rumor) but Taiwan is sure enough to spend money on exercises (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/taiwan-military-stages-exercise-fight-mock-invasion https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/tai...) and the movements https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-simulates-island-invasion-after-catching-taiwanese-spies-b3pnghbwl https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-simulates-island-in... which promoted a legitimate fear, that there would be an operation during the US election. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4034710 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4034710, obv that didn't happen. There's a stated intent to enforce a "One China Policy" and that's not going to happen without a large-scale troop movement.
- boomboomsubban 6y agoYes, the Pacific navy forces want a higher budget, and they're playing on the fears of Chinese attack to get it. Your list of training exercises and US reports claiming China couldn't invade Taiwan aren't really changing my opinion. >There's a stated intent to enforce a "One China Policy" and that's not going to happen without a large-scale troop movement. Or they enforce it by pretending Taiwan doesn't exist, like they have so far.
- leke 6y agoThis has been the talk for a long time, but nothing has become of it. Nothing in the article made me think this will change. It's like the doomsday people saying every year will be the last. Well, they will be right one year at least.
- kevingadd 6y agoThey were talking about the potential of pandemics every year too, and then they were right last year.
- ceilingcorner 6y agoThis would be an exceptionally impatient move. If China’s economic machine continues to grow + mainland culture becomes more appealing, I could see Taiwan wanting to reunite in a few decades. It’s the same situation with Hong Kong. Had they initiated the changeover more slowly, there would be far less resistance. Instead, they ignited a movement that will probably never go away. Xi’s downfall will be his inability to wait patiently.
- tlibert 6y agoThey’ve had nukes for a while, unfortunately this could be viewed as the patient approach.
- hangonhn 6y agoThere is a pretty big generational divide among the Taiwanese with the older generation still identifying as Chinese while the younger generation is adamantly identifying as Taiwanese. It's hard to imagine how a peaceful reunification can happen as more time goes on. Culturally the divide is becoming starker over time.
- bootlooped 6y agoWhat would reunification offer Taiwan? Hong Kong should put down any illusions that they would be able to maintain any meaningful level of autonomy.
- randmeerkat 6y agoThis increasingly aggressive posturing makes me question China’s strength and its government’s political longevity. The difficult thing and the great thing about democracy is the stability that comes from a constant transition of power. China doesn’t have that tradition and Xi doesn’t have an “heir”. I suspect what’s really happening here is that Xi has a mandate to reunify China, which if forced, may ironically destroy China’s political ambitions.
- PureParadigm 6y agoChina's economic growth has been fueled by demographics such as a young labor force. Due to the one child policy and low birth rates, they are facing a demographic collapse in the next few decades [1] as more people retire that are replaced by younger workers. If China is ever going to take over Taiwan, they would want to do so when they will be strongest which will be within the next ten years or so. [1] https://www.dw.com/en/global-population-decline-will-hit-china-hard/a-50326522 https://www.dw.com/en/global-population-decline-will-hit-chi...
- newbie578 6y agoUnfortunately, I do not doubt that China will try to take Taiwan, the bigger question is how is the West going to react? I just hope we are not going to do the detrimental appeasement policy like with letting Hitler take the Sudets. I do wonder if there is a politician in the west with the stomach to confront CCP. I just cannot help but congratulate the CCP on their well played long game of chess. China has transformed immensely in the last 40 years, and we got no one to blame but ourselves. We literally check-mated ourselves. I guess this will go on the long list of Nixon's failure. The day the west started bowing down to China without setting up rules is the day we lost. Sometimes I do wonder what would have happened had MacArthur executed his plan...
- TheButlerian 6y agoWorld would've been a better place.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- mensetmanusman 6y agoIt’s true, the horror of NK has lent credence to MacArthur’ strategy, if you are an ‘ends justify the means’ type.
- kstenerud 6y agoNow is the most favorable time for China to strike. With everyone reeling from the pandemic, a centralized government can temporarily move faster than everyone else and consolidate faster than everyone else. A chance like this won't come again, so I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make their move this year.
- stanislavb 6y agoUnfortunately this makes sense :/
- knz 6y agoNot to mention we are twenty years into the Global War on Terrorism. The appetite of the US public for another conflict, especially one directly against a superpower, is exceptionally low.
- jtdev 6y agoAppetite is exceptionally low for ill advised forever wars... defending an ally against the CCP however is something that many Americans would likely be in favor of.
- tim333 6y agoI think China will become more powerful in the future so they could be better off being patient. Which is what I think they'll do.
- PureParadigm 6y agoDue to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the workforce. So the 2020s is the pivotal decade as China nears the height of its power. The CCP is aware of this and knows that if they are ever going to take Taiwan, it would ideally be this decade. Politically, it will also need a victory as the Chinese economy inevitably slows down due to the demographic collapse. I fear that if the CCP manages to take Kinmen island without a devastating US response then it will be the Austria moment of our century. Obviously, a strong US response would be damaging to both countries, but the only way to deter an attack on Taiwan is to make the cost of attacking so high for the CCP that it is not worth it. While it will be difficult to justify in the short term, the US must push back strongly when China is "testing the waters" or else it will only escalate from there. If there is only a weak US response, it will embolden the CCP to continue pushing the boundaries until they do something that requires either full scale war or surrender (such as invasion of Taiwan main island).
- everybodyknows 6y ago> Austria moment Meaning the Anschluss: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss
- hilbertseries 6y agoThe solution is simple, give Taiwan nukes.
- leereeves 6y agoI think Taiwan, one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world, could make their own nukes if they wanted them.
- detaro 6y agoTaiwan did have a nuke program until the 80s(?). Of course starting to finalize a nuke program next to a nuclear power that doesn't like you sounds like a surefire way of forcing a decision now if you get caught.
- whoooooo123 6y agoFun fact: satellite photos of China's largest military base show that it contains a detailed, lifesize replica of a part of downtown Taipei including the presidential palace. I wonder what the soldiers on that base might be training for?
- nayuki 6y agoSome sources: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33591/chinas-biggest-base-has-huge-replicas-of-taiwans-presidential-building-and-the-eiffel-tower https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33591/chinas-biggest-b... ; https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china... ; https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/07/24/watch-chinese-soldiers-storm-what-looks-like-a-replica-of-taiwans-presidential-palace/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/07/24...
- elteto 6y agoWhat a great PR move from China. It's obvious that they put it right there on a military base where they know the satellites will be looking.
- a_f 6y agoDo you have aa source at all please? I would like to see more Edit: I see it posted above
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- megous 6y agoThey also have Eiffel tower. Probably not because they want to invade France.
- whoooooo123 6y agoMaybe it's a disinformation campaign to weaken Taiwan's defenses by tricking us into redeploying half our troops to Paris because we're not sure where the attack will be.
- gentleman11 6y agoAll the American companies that choose to censor the word Taiwan and call it part of China are directly complicit with this. No rational person in a position of responsibility could have thought that this wasn’t the long term intention
- justicezyx 6y agoWhich intentional treaty denied Taiwan being part of China? BTW, it's totally fine for people living on the Taiwan island to form an independent country, like what Jewish people did. But please, do not annex my home country's sovereign land.
- phyalow 6y agohttp://blog.yalebooks.com/2021/01/26/china-and-the-fate-of-taiwan/ http://blog.yalebooks.com/2021/01/26/china-and-the-fate-of-t...
- everybodyknows 6y ago> China forgot about Taiwan, treated it as part of a foreign country and even regarded its people as part of a separate Taiwanese nation. This remained true for almost half a century, from the loss of the island in 1895 until the “rediscovery” of the island by China’s Nationalist government in 1942. Anecdata: A Taiwanese expat coworker told me that Kai-Shek’s arrival, with the remains of his KMT army, felt much like an invasion to the natives — such as his own parents. This was not because they had CCP sympathies, rather because they felt historically closer to Japan. This despite his family being of Han ethnicity themselves. A turning point came when a non-KMT candidate won the presidency. If Taiwan’s internal rift continues to heal, Beijing will feel more urgency than ever.
- cwwc 6y agoSorry bud, but didn't Taiwan lose China; not the other way around? If anything, Taiwan has a claim on China as sovereign land. This is Stupid, yes, but but it would (very roughly) be like if in 1066 the Normans had lost -- and then they kept claiming "Britain is ours!" Years later. Uhhh... No. Britain would be the Anglo-Saxon's. No question. Call me out if my logic is off -- but this seems more reasonable at a glance.
- ed25519FUUU 6y agoChina has been slowly biding their time and consolidating their soft and firm power throughout the world. They’re taking over institutions, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re not actively cultivating power here in the USA among elected officials. The tip of the iceberg? We (the USA) does this sort of stuff all of the time. When we will stop pretending that China doesn’t? https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/08/10/thiessen-sen-dianne-feinstein-had-a-chinese-spy-on-her-staff-for-20-years/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/08/10/thiessen-sen-dianne-f... https://spectator.us/topic/eric-swalwell-honeypot-china-ccp-spy/ https://spectator.us/topic/eric-swalwell-honeypot-china-ccp-... https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/world/asia/china-linkedin-spies.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/27/world/asia/china-linkedin...
- beloch 6y ago"An invasion of Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, would force the U.S. to decide whether to go to war with China to defend an implicit ally." The U.S. and its allies have two choices: 1. Officially recognize Taiwan as a country and make it an explicit ally. 2. Give Xi the green light to annex Taiwan. I don't see any middle ground here. Failure to do #1 is functionally the same as #2.
- PureParadigm 6y agoCurrently the US is not choosing either of these because they both have downsides. In (1), this may embolden Taiwan to take risky and provocative actions such as declaring themselves an independent country. (2) is obviously not in US interests. Instead, the current US position is strategic ambiguity. It is clear there is probably a line somewhere after which the US will intervene, but it is not clear to either side where this is. The goal is that this will deter both sides from changing the status quo, but as China becomes increasingly aggressive it may be necessary for the US to make its position more explicit.
- ddevault 6y agoTaiwan already officially considers itself an independent country, and maintains a large, sophisticated military for the purpose of defending this status.
- PureParadigm 6y agoWhat I meant is declare themselves independent from mainland China (dropping the claims on the mainland). This would provoke China by violating the Anti-Secession Law [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law
- beloch 6y agoArticle 8 is a doozy. I was ignorant of it. From the sounds of it, Taiwan doesn't want to declare its independence nor signal there is no hope of peaceful reunification with mainland China because either of these would trigger an attack mandated by PRC law. It really does seem as though Taiwan is between a rock and a hard place here. To gain formal status as a country and enter formal mutual defence treaties, they'd have to trigger a Chinese attack. If they don't have formal treaties, they could be absorbed at any time without anyone doing anything. It's either certain attack or risk an attack with no allies. Talk about being held hostage. There should be more international pressure on the PRC to eliminate Article 8.
- Simulacra 6y agoAn attack on Taiwan is imminent, it's only a matter of time. The current administration has shown its clear deference to the PRC.
- cpleppert 6y agoI think this article essentially misses the mark. China isn't flirting with taking Taiwan because the leader is willing to take risks; China is flirting with taking Taiwan because it now has overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan. The United States has bases thousands of miles away while Chinese bases are literally right there. China's capital spending on military capabilities (new + direct research & development) is almost certainly higher than the United States which is burdened by personnel spending and world spanning commitments. China can afford to focus its gigantic military preparations on a single objective; its preparations are literally mind-blowing. As for when China will seek or threaten a military solution it depends on tradeoffs that only the leadership knows. Does China want a provocation to unify its society in a war? What margin of military superiority does it require to avoid long term economic damage to Taiwan's economic prospects? Will the world become more dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors or less? Most importantly, how does CCP view the benefits of ruling a unified China as opposed to the costs of a war?
- hyperion2010 6y agoI think you are forgetting that there are nuclear missile submarines within striking distance of every major Chinese city. This is a game of chicken, not a game of "who has better logistics."
- magicsmoke 6y agoI'm sure getting SF and LA nuked because the US lobbed a couple at Beijing and Shanghai first will play great with the electorate. It would also be the third time the US unilaterally used nuclear weapons first which I'm sure has no international political implications.
- hyperion2010 6y agoAfter reading this I had a sad chuckle when I realized that as described these events would actually play pretty darned well with a large swath of the electorate :/
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- everybodyknows 6y agoDeep look at near-term risk of military incident: https://www.lawfareblog.com/whats-next-us-china-military-relations https://www.lawfareblog.com/whats-next-us-china-military-rel... >Taiwan’s envoy to the United States called for "high alert" over Beijing's maritime coercion in the wake of the Coast Guard Law.
- daxfohl 6y agoDoes North Korea get emboldened to invade South if this happens? What other chips fall?
- dehrmann 6y agoI doubt it. North Korea doesn't have the military or the economy to do this. The story I read is China provides North Korea enough support so there isn't a refugee crisis, but that's it. North Korea is a thorn in everyone's side, and they're all happy to maintain the status quo.
- xibalba 6y agoWhenever I see articles like this, my gut reaction is to think of every damn foreign conflict the U.S. has been involved in post-WWII. Have we not learned our lessons yet? Is it really in our best interests to get involved in yet another far flung military conflict? What will the return on lives lost and trillions of $$$ spent be?
- hpoe 6y agoThe CCP must be stopped. If China takes Taiwan and we do not stop them our children and grandchildren will look upon us in the same manner we looked upon Neville Chamberlain and his policy of appeasement to avoid a conflict with Nazi Germany, and if the US stands up to the CCP I will gladly sign up to carry a gun. This isn't because I think America is perfect it isn't because I think that we are the 100% blameless good guys but it's because I know for certain that there are things that are evil in this world and that it is worth it to die to stop that kind of evil.
- FpUser 6y ago>"The CCP must be stopped. If China takes Taiwan and we do not stop them our children and grandchildren will look upon us in the same manner" No country in their right mind will ever directly attack the US. Your children would be safe and would not give rat's ass about some country (is that a country?) far away. I am curious how many US kids are even aware about its existence and status. What the US might loose is the ability to tell everyone how high they should jump. Well the US will still be very rich and advanced country and not gonna go hungry. They might even still be a world leader if instead of playing god in middle east and other places they would concentrate on something productive.
- hourislate 6y agoThe shit storm this would cause for global trade/commerce is insane. I think it could be a bigger deal economically than the pandemic was.
- jrsj 6y agoWe never should’ve done business with China in the first place and every day we don’t cut ties completely is a day we are complicit in the CCP’s oppression and genocide. We are ultimately creating a monster that will be too strong to be contained.
- 99_00 6y agoWhy would they do it now instead of under Trump who was grossly incompetent?
- dirtyid 6y agoThere's a lot of conflation of US domestic politics with Chinese domestic politics. Xi's comment on TW during his Fujian trip this week: > “We should focus on promoting integration by means of communication, benefit, and emotions, and have the courage to explore new ways of cross-strait integration and development.” There's no PRC pressure to make military moves on TW for a while. Not until after 2035, post military modernizations, most of which do not suggest focus on invasion at all. The two sessions trolling of highway / bridge to Taiwan is 15 years away, after which timing and politics is much better for US/PRC since TW silicon shield would have evaporated. Btw in the article, "implicit ally" links to pre Biden Cato article during dramatic time that Pompeo could grant Taiwan security guarantee. That never happened. Alaska meeting last week reaffirmed "one china" framework, both parties seems to be fine with not dealing with potential TW conflict in next 4-8 years. People need to remember no one, not US/PRC/EU likes TSMC having semi dominance, it's pure happenstance due to bad industrial policy on everyone's part that TW semi could cause this much friction. It's bad for all factions, no one wants to rock the boat until semi moves out of TW... which is happening.
- Jeema101 6y agoI don't think a lot of people in this thread seem to understand the gravity of what this would mean (perhaps because many here didn't live through the Cold War), but this would not be Crimea all over again - it would be a standoff between two nuclear armed powers. The US at one time (up until 1980) actually had an explicit mutual defense pact with Taiwan, guaranteeing that either would go to war if the other were attacked. The policy since then has been 'deliberate ambiguity' [1] but it's generally understood that there would be some kind of intervention. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_of_deliberate_ambiguity#Taiwan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_of_deliberate_ambiguity...
- summerlight 6y agoLet's assess its feasibility first. In the point of the China military view, a significant portion of the Taiwan island occupation must be done before the US intervention. And their limited amphibious attack capability complicates the problem. Taiwan has 200k standing army and 250k more reserve forces, thus China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or less. Otherwise, it will need to face the 7th fleet which will make the further amphibious invasion much harder. And yes, the current China navy is not capable of doing so, and this is perfectly natural because the scale of such amphibious invasion in a such short time frame is non-precedent. They are desperately ramping up the capability of course, but it is not a that easy work. And the associated cost on the failure is pretty clear; they will lose its grip on South China sea. Taiwan re-unification is somehow political idealism-driven, but the control on South China sea is directly connected to China's national interest.
- leereeves 6y ago> China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or less. To give that historical perspective, about 160k Allied troops landed in Normandy on D-Day.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoThe scale you're describing strikes me as simply not possible. 500k troops is a full quarter of the active PLA forces; I don't think they could even get into position for that invasion without weeks or months of obvious, undeniable preparations.
- dirtyid 6y agoPRC will face the 7th fleet and more regardless, that's the default expectation and pretty much the singular vision shaping Chinese military modernization. Everything is oriented towards sufficiently confronting USN far out in SCS / Malacca - far away from Taiwan, preferably in enough numbers to deter actual battle or blockade. Taiwan itself has little baring on SCS security. It will be mostly peer affair between China and US. Taking TW itself is a much easier problem and IMO already forgone assuming USN can be managed away from theatre. There aren't any recent credible war games by PRC/US that suggests Taiwan forces can hold out for more than days/weeks. The expectation is unfettered PRC air superiority which opens up options for invasion or IMO more likely, blockades or quarantines to siege island into compliance with out boots on the ground. TW is grossly food and energy insecure and an un-reinforceable island within PRC A2AD that it's doubtful US can penetrate. PRC on domestic war economy + reserves can maintain military several times larger than what she currently fields, she is not Japan. The complete lack of amphib acquisitions on PRC modernization suggest to me a massive invasion is not default. The entire concept of DDAY style invasion is anachronistic, based on period where PRC military was limited to WW2 capabilities not 2020 or 2035, or 2050.
- Sophistifunk 6y agoIf the US doesn't respond with massive force, both Japan and S Korea will be forced to "develop" (read, unveil and ramp up) their weapons programs, closely followed by Indonesia because they will assume Australia is doing so secretly. Indonesia could teach the Saudis a thing or two about fundamentalism and intolerance, and they tend not to have strong leadership. Nobody wants them to have a hydrogen bomb.
- rdsubhas 6y agoA lot of comments on military response. None of that really matters. The first is always a political and domestic response, and if that is not there (in the US), there will be no military response, only "stern condemnations". Does the US have a political climate to support a defense of Taiwan (current R/D divide), and a domestic story to sell to US citizens on why it should intervene? What is their reason to defend it? That they're saving a free country? But it was never a country even to begin with. Remember, even during the height of WW2, it needed a strong story to sell citizens on why it should intervene only after 2 years. Why would anyone believe the US would act sooner this time? And given Taiwan's size, it's definitely not going to take 2 years for an annexation. Basically after 2 years, "who cares"?
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- ckqwerty 6y agoSuch boilerplate rhetoric is usually a diversion from other embarrassing issues. In this case it could be a distraction from the cotton plucking situation in China, which could lead to further scrutiny in other areas and might inconvenience Biden's Silicon Valley pals. This could be the Democrat's version of Trumps "Little Rocket Man" storm in a teacup.
- sathomasga 6y agoGreat. I just finished reading [2034: A Novel of the Next World War](https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Next-World-War-ebook/dp/B08BKSH9TF https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Next-World-War-ebook/dp/B0...) by Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis. It was not a cheerful book.