9 ms·

> it peaked at more than 2,500 cases per day in Tokyo That's 0.027% of the population of Tokyo per day in a city that has over 6,000 people packed in per squar

> it peaked at more than 2,500 cases per day in Tokyo That's 0.027% of the population of Tokyo per day in a city that has over 6,000 people packed in per square kilometer. By comparison, Idaho has a population density of 7.64 people per square kilometer, and right now the infection rate there is 0.021% of its population per day. That's only a 30% difference in percentage of population infected per day, but there are three orders of magnitude between their population densities! Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics.

someperson 6y ago
Taiwan (and Vietnam) both have high densities in their cities, but low COVID numbers.. So there's definitely countries that have handled it better than Japan.
- AuryGlenz 6y ago
  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all of the countries that are doing the best (that aren’t isolated islands) are in the same geographic region that the virus came from. Whether it’s some sort of evolved protection from a similar virus in the past or similar viruses being common in the present, there’s definitely a reason.
  - someperson 6y ago
    The success of countries like New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam and Australia is widely attributed stringent border control, localized quarantine and mass testing when outbreaks occur. I haven't seen any suggestions that the region has a higher acquired immunity to coronaviruses. And other countries in the region (Japan, Indonesia, India and China) had high numbers of infections and fatalities.
  - account42 6y ago
    > Whether it’s some sort of evolved protection from a similar virus in the past or similar viruses being common in the present, there’s definitely a reason. The virus you are looking fo is SARS - but I would guess it is more the government response rather than the individual immune response that has learned for it.
junon 6y ago
I'm from Idaho. No, things aren't great. Lots of idiots there. But you're comparing a dense, large city to a state that has only a few concentrated areas of people. The rest of Idaho is barren, or the Rockies. You have Boise, Pocatello, and the CdA area up north. Besides that, there are only a few small, sparse towns. This affects the average density greatly. Be fair in your conclusions, please.
timr 6y ago
> Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics. I lived in Japan, have many friends there whom I keep in touch with, and watch the local news regularly. The restrictions in the major cities have been substantially fewer than we've had here in the US. There have been two voluntary states of emergency, where businesses were encouraged (but not required) to reduce hours. Nearly all have remained open. This winter, the government discussed enacting emergency laws to allow fining businesses that don't comply (not sure if that went anywhere...), but mostly they tried to incentivize businesses by providing subsidies to places that reduced hours. To be sure, fewer people are going out and using transit, but a large number of my friends are still going to work in the office, going out to eat, etc. Until late this past fall, the government was actually encouraging domestic travel, via a national voucher system. This was only suspended once cases were clearly spiking around the nation. Compared to (e.g.) New York, Tokyo looks basically normal, even today. The most visible difference is the lack of tourists. AFAICT, the only broad conclusion one can draw from Japan is that most of the things that are held sacred here in the US don't seem to matter very much at all in their context.
- lhl 6y ago
  It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now. Any Japanese who see things like Idaho’s recent mask burning protests are simply bewildered. Of course, people take their masks off when eating out, but still keep them on while ordering and waiting for food, and the “3C’s” messaging has also focused on improved ventilation in buildings and vehicles while this was ignored in many other countries (seems like pretty basic stuff for a highly contagious respiratory virus). The mix of policies (specifically the lack of testing and rapid testing) has led to Japan being one of the least effective East Asian countries in containing COVID (just compare it to Taiwan, South Korea, or China), but leagues better than the west. Some of that calculus has changed with B117 and other variants, especially those that spread more with children, you’re seeing now reports of community spread of these variants in schools being reported (Japan’s focus in cluster tracing, while it has been overwhelmed at times I believe can also be given a lot of credit for keeping numbers much lower than they would otherwise be).
bamboozled 6y ago
The thing is, in Japan there is a lot of fluff happening. You can't just get tested unless you meet fairly stringent requirements, or pay for a private clinic. Private clinics aren't required to report numbers, or the government isn't reporting the numbers from private clinics. So if you're living in Japan, you're basically flying blind, it's very hard to ready what's really going on and assess the situation. It's also worth noting that he number of tests performed each day wildly fluctuates between 2000-9000 in Tokyo, so again, it's very hard to read. Weekend testing is far lower than weekday etc. See https://covid19japan.com/ https://covid19japan.com/ for more information. My guess is, Western countries have much more transparent agencies and government watch dogs which help keep things honest, whereas Japan is a grey area when it comes to Government influence over the situation and the perception surrounding it.
- mantap 6y ago
  Things would be a lot clearer if positivity rate was the reportable number, not absolute number of positive tests. This would also encourage countries to test more rather than less.
  - bamboozled 6y ago
    What's the point of a positivity rate in this case though if the testing is so varied. For example, you can't really give an accurate picture if one day 1000 tests are performed and the next day, 9000 ?
    - toyg 6y ago
      Maybe what is wrong is our media-fuelled expectation that we should have perfect day-to-day metrics, rather than 5- or 10-day averages.
      - bamboozled 6y ago
        Well, you can just combine the daily data and extrapolate the results across any time frame you have data points for? Are you suggesting that the media is to blame for something?
Blikkentrekker 6y ago
I have read a very interesting theory in that it is about how Japanese is spoken. There is an interesting trick that is often taught to students of Japanese to faithfully reproduce the sounds in the language: that is to cover one's teeth with one's lips while speaking as much as possible, as most of the characteristic sounds of Japanese are caused by this. This greatly reduces the amount of air that escapes as one speaks Japanese.
- legerdemain 6y ago
  Please, no, no more "This is a PEN" Japanese-language chauvinism, I beg you. There is a whole thing in Japan about how the Japanese language has various hidden beneficial qualities, like it's some kind of gift from God. This idea about expelling less air while speaking in Japanese is firmly in that vein, and it got a lot of play on tabloid news shows, and it's total garbage.
  - Blikkentrekker 6y ago
    So why is it garbage? What do you have to disprove the hypothesis? because I did read it accompanied with measurements that did show that bilingual persons exported less air speaking Japanese vis-à-vis English. As there is scientific evidence to back up the idea that phonological features of languages affect the spread of diseases: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7263261/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7263261/ https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0227699 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
- Tor3 6y ago
  I'm exposed to native Japanese every day and I can't see how this hypothesis could have any merit.
zpeti 6y ago
I can’t help but think this is to do with genetics and mutations. I’m in a country where cases are now exploding because of the Brit mutation. And the whole Italy situation last year was a mutation I believe. I can’t help but think Europe is completely fucked with this virus. Our genetics don’t seem well adapted to the virus, and now we have super infectious strains. Meanwhile everyone is getting vaccinated, so by the time the mutations would get out of Europe they’ll be ok. (Brazil and SA being the exception). So I feel like us here in Europe are proper fucked compared to the rest of the world.
orblivion 6y ago
Nassim Taleb claimed on his Twitter account that Japan has made ventilation a matter of policy. Does anybody know about the accuracy of this? This is what makes airplanes safe, right? I honestly don't understand why we don't see restaurants here in the U.S. (edit: my reference is New Hampshire) with at least HEPA filters. Ideally they'd crack the window open even in the winter.
macspoofing 6y ago
>Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics. Maybe, but I'm skeptical. Maybe the COVID strain active in Japan is much less virulent than the one in the US. Maybe testing standards are different. Maybe infection identification standards are different. But in general, I'm highly skeptical that this is an apples-to-apples comparison.

someperson 6y ago

Taiwan (and Vietnam) both have high densities in their cities, but low COVID numbers.. So there's definitely countries that have handled it better than Japan.

AuryGlenz 6y ago
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all of the countries that are doing the best (that aren’t isolated islands) are in the same geographic region that the virus came from. Whether it’s some sort of evolved protection from a similar virus in the past or similar viruses being common in the present, there’s definitely a reason.
- someperson 6y ago
  The success of countries like New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam and Australia is widely attributed stringent border control, localized quarantine and mass testing when outbreaks occur. I haven't seen any suggestions that the region has a higher acquired immunity to coronaviruses. And other countries in the region (Japan, Indonesia, India and China) had high numbers of infections and fatalities.
- account42 6y ago
  > Whether it’s some sort of evolved protection from a similar virus in the past or similar viruses being common in the present, there’s definitely a reason. The virus you are looking fo is SARS - but I would guess it is more the government response rather than the individual immune response that has learned for it.

junon 6y ago

I'm from Idaho. No, things aren't great. Lots of idiots there. But you're comparing a dense, large city to a state that has only a few concentrated areas of people. The rest of Idaho is barren, or the Rockies. You have Boise, Pocatello, and the CdA area up north. Besides that, there are only a few small, sparse towns. This affects the average density greatly. Be fair in your conclusions, please.

timr 6y ago

> Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics. I lived in Japan, have many friends there whom I keep in touch with, and watch the local news regularly. The restrictions in the major cities have been substantially fewer than we've had here in the US. There have been two voluntary states of emergency, where businesses were encouraged (but not required) to reduce hours. Nearly all have remained open. This winter, the government discussed enacting emergency laws to allow fining businesses that don't comply (not sure if that went anywhere...), but mostly they tried to incentivize businesses by providing subsidies to places that reduced hours. To be sure, fewer people are going out and using transit, but a large number of my friends are still going to work in the office, going out to eat, etc. Until late this past fall, the government was actually encouraging domestic travel, via a national voucher system. This was only suspended once cases were clearly spiking around the nation. Compared to (e.g.) New York, Tokyo looks basically normal, even today. The most visible difference is the lack of tourists. AFAICT, the only broad conclusion one can draw from Japan is that most of the things that are held sacred here in the US don't seem to matter very much at all in their context.

lhl 6y ago
It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now. Any Japanese who see things like Idaho’s recent mask burning protests are simply bewildered. Of course, people take their masks off when eating out, but still keep them on while ordering and waiting for food, and the “3C’s” messaging has also focused on improved ventilation in buildings and vehicles while this was ignored in many other countries (seems like pretty basic stuff for a highly contagious respiratory virus). The mix of policies (specifically the lack of testing and rapid testing) has led to Japan being one of the least effective East Asian countries in containing COVID (just compare it to Taiwan, South Korea, or China), but leagues better than the west. Some of that calculus has changed with B117 and other variants, especially those that spread more with children, you’re seeing now reports of community spread of these variants in schools being reported (Japan’s focus in cluster tracing, while it has been overwhelmed at times I believe can also be given a lot of credit for keeping numbers much lower than they would otherwise be).

bamboozled 6y ago

The thing is, in Japan there is a lot of fluff happening. You can't just get tested unless you meet fairly stringent requirements, or pay for a private clinic. Private clinics aren't required to report numbers, or the government isn't reporting the numbers from private clinics. So if you're living in Japan, you're basically flying blind, it's very hard to ready what's really going on and assess the situation. It's also worth noting that he number of tests performed each day wildly fluctuates between 2000-9000 in Tokyo, so again, it's very hard to read. Weekend testing is far lower than weekday etc. See https://covid19japan.com/ https://covid19japan.com/ for more information. My guess is, Western countries have much more transparent agencies and government watch dogs which help keep things honest, whereas Japan is a grey area when it comes to Government influence over the situation and the perception surrounding it.

mantap 6y ago
Things would be a lot clearer if positivity rate was the reportable number, not absolute number of positive tests. This would also encourage countries to test more rather than less.
- bamboozled 6y ago
  What's the point of a positivity rate in this case though if the testing is so varied. For example, you can't really give an accurate picture if one day 1000 tests are performed and the next day, 9000 ?
  - toyg 6y ago
    Maybe what is wrong is our media-fuelled expectation that we should have perfect day-to-day metrics, rather than 5- or 10-day averages.
    - bamboozled 6y ago
      Well, you can just combine the daily data and extrapolate the results across any time frame you have data points for? Are you suggesting that the media is to blame for something?

Blikkentrekker 6y ago

I have read a very interesting theory in that it is about how Japanese is spoken. There is an interesting trick that is often taught to students of Japanese to faithfully reproduce the sounds in the language: that is to cover one's teeth with one's lips while speaking as much as possible, as most of the characteristic sounds of Japanese are caused by this. This greatly reduces the amount of air that escapes as one speaks Japanese.

legerdemain 6y ago
Please, no, no more "This is a PEN" Japanese-language chauvinism, I beg you. There is a whole thing in Japan about how the Japanese language has various hidden beneficial qualities, like it's some kind of gift from God. This idea about expelling less air while speaking in Japanese is firmly in that vein, and it got a lot of play on tabloid news shows, and it's total garbage.
- Blikkentrekker 6y ago
  So why is it garbage? What do you have to disprove the hypothesis? because I did read it accompanied with measurements that did show that bilingual persons exported less air speaking Japanese vis-à-vis English. As there is scientific evidence to back up the idea that phonological features of languages affect the spread of diseases: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7263261/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7263261/ https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0227699 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
Tor3 6y ago
I'm exposed to native Japanese every day and I can't see how this hypothesis could have any merit.

zpeti 6y ago

I can’t help but think this is to do with genetics and mutations. I’m in a country where cases are now exploding because of the Brit mutation. And the whole Italy situation last year was a mutation I believe. I can’t help but think Europe is completely fucked with this virus. Our genetics don’t seem well adapted to the virus, and now we have super infectious strains. Meanwhile everyone is getting vaccinated, so by the time the mutations would get out of Europe they’ll be ok. (Brazil and SA being the exception). So I feel like us here in Europe are proper fucked compared to the rest of the world.

orblivion 6y ago

Nassim Taleb claimed on his Twitter account that Japan has made ventilation a matter of policy. Does anybody know about the accuracy of this? This is what makes airplanes safe, right? I honestly don't understand why we don't see restaurants here in the U.S. (edit: my reference is New Hampshire) with at least HEPA filters. Ideally they'd crack the window open even in the winter.

macspoofing 6y ago

>Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics. Maybe, but I'm skeptical. Maybe the COVID strain active in Japan is much less virulent than the one in the US. Maybe testing standards are different. Maybe infection identification standards are different. But in general, I'm highly skeptical that this is an apples-to-apples comparison.