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The patterns only going to become more pronounced from here on out. My guess is that we’re going to See a electric bulbs style phase out of gasoline engines ann

The patterns only going to become more pronounced from here on out. My guess is that we’re going to See a electric bulbs style phase out of gasoline engines announced over the next two years. If I’m Ford or GM I’m gonna try and get my hands on some of that sweet sweet tesla speculation cash in the form of a buy out as quickly as possible. Solves the technology platform problems too. If VW couldn’t handle it, why do you think GM or Ford could?

pmorici 6y ago
The chances that Tesla will buy out a legacy auto company are zero. It makes no sense. They are all saddled with crushing debt loads, dealer networks, and stranded assets. None of them have anything Tesla needs to become the largest car manufacturer in history by 2030.
- nickik 6y ago
  There are so many more issues. They have lots of plants that Tesla doesn't need or want. Even worse, you can't close down those plants because of unions and politics. Tesla doesn't want unions in general. Battery being the limiting factor means that having more ability to produce cars is basically useless.
  - rswail 6y ago
    The fact that "Tesla doesn't want unions in general" is a sad anti-pattern. Unions are the way that labor negotiates with capital on an equal basis. The fact that the US has a badly flawed labor market where things that shouldn't be tied to employment (eg healthcare, pensions/retirement) are still tied to employment, is a bug, not a feature. Tesla will not be able to avoid "unions" if they manufacture in Europe. Neither will they be able to avoid standard employer contributions in the form of taxation and employment benefits, like minimum paid vacation and sick leave, etc.
    - mcot2 6y ago
      Tesla gives almost all their factory workers stock. I think that’s worked out well. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-starting-wages-revealed/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-starting-wages-r...
    - nickik 6y ago
      I was just explaining why Tesla will not buy other car makers in the US.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- friedman23 6y ago
  This kind of uninformed negativity is why I'm loaded up on GM calls. GM btw, has no debt (at least in the way you are thinking).
  - totalZero 6y ago
    If there is a cash takeout, the IV will go down. If there is a share component to a hypothetical acquisition, the IV will potentially increase. However, I'm not sure how likely that is. Just be aware that your Vega p&l could be negative, so extremely long dated calls with a lot of Vega may need a big gap between a cash takeout price and spot in order to be profitable.
    - rlonn 6y ago
      This reads like finance buzz bingo
      - totalZero 6y ago
        I'm just saying that long-dated calls can lose money in a cash acquisition.
    - friedman23 6y ago
      I'm already up 200% on my $150k bet. The IV was basically nothing a month ago.
  - pmorici 6y ago
    Yeah I’m sure Tesla is just chomping at the bit to take on a debt portfolio backed by ICE vehicle loans and leases. The assets underlying all that debt are going to have a drastic revaluation as electric takes over. I would bet on a GM bankruptcy within 5 years. GM is blackberry it’s 2008.
  - pokerhobo 6y ago
    GM has about $100B in debt https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/09/17407586/a-look-into-general-motorss-debt#/:~:text=General%20Motors's%20Debt%20According%20to%20the%20General%20Motors’s,company%20has%20a%20net%20debt%20of%20$98.94%20billion https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/09/17407586/a-look-into-gen.... Help me understand how I’m misinterpreting this.
SOLAR_FIELDS 6y ago
I think you are more right than wrong in your prediction, but “over the next two years” seems so incredibly optimistic that I’m inclined to call it naïveté instead.
- cookiengineer 6y ago
  Lots of European countries joined the law that makes fossil fuel burning engines obsolete starting 2030. So he might be right when he says the next two years, because in 5 years it will have been too late already :)
  - gbear605 6y ago
    Unless I’m mistaken, that law is for new cars being sold, not existing cars, which just means that they need to have transitioned by then. Obviously it can’t be left to the last minute, but it also doesn’t have to be the next two years (at least for those specific legal issues).
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. The Cybertruck is 18-24 months out. Rivian is going to be launching their electric truck in the next 18 months as well. That puts Ford's front line vehicle squarely in the headlights. If Ford can't mass produce EVs at a reasonable price in the next 2 years, things are going get increasingly ugly for them. Not end of line in 2 years, but it's just going to get harder to catch up as Tesla and the rest ramp up manufacturing capacity and capture the market. The big problem for Ford/ GM/ Dodge, and all the rest of the latecomers is sourcing batteries. Tesla has spent most of the past 10 years building up capacity and looking in supply while the rest of the auto-makers need to outsource supply in an increasingly competitive market.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    > Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. GM is selling EVs for $25k right now. The Chevy Bolt probably is the best EV for the money in the world today. The Renault Zoe and the VW ID.3 are not too far off that price and are strong sellers in Europe. A smaller battery version of the ID.3 is coming out this year.
axaxs 6y ago
I simply don't agree. What the old companies have are billions of man hours of experience and engineering. Tesla has cool new tech, but keeps falling apart on things Ford or GM solved 40 years ago. I'm not saying one or the other is better, but it's not like buying some dead useless company.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source. Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain squared away. You think GM and Ford are going to pull that out of their ass tomorrow?
  - axaxs 6y ago
    No of course not. I guess I meant they could use each others' experience. And it's not about simply assembling things. Ford and GM have tons of engineering and experience on hand.
  - chii 6y ago
    It depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly. The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.
    - ogre_codes 6y ago
      Capital is there. But that capacity isn't going to come online over-night. "Just sourcing mines"... the capacity for raw materials doesn't exist. New mines have to be dug. That means acquiring property with materials, permitting, sourcing equipment to dig the mines, digging the material, building refining equipment, building factories to package the batteries. All of this takes time to bring online. I'm not saying capacity will never exist, but for the next 5-10 years, auto manufacturers are going to be fighting for as much lithium and battery raw materials as they can get their hands on. Tesla has a handle on this, Ford doesn't. How many years is it going to take for that capacity to come online while Ford/ GM/ etc bleed market share?
imtringued 6y ago
VW is a market leader for EVs in Europe. I would like to know what VW couldn't handle because it's not obvious from your comment. You left a lot of ambiguity.

pmorici 6y ago

The chances that Tesla will buy out a legacy auto company are zero. It makes no sense. They are all saddled with crushing debt loads, dealer networks, and stranded assets. None of them have anything Tesla needs to become the largest car manufacturer in history by 2030.

nickik 6y ago
There are so many more issues. They have lots of plants that Tesla doesn't need or want. Even worse, you can't close down those plants because of unions and politics. Tesla doesn't want unions in general. Battery being the limiting factor means that having more ability to produce cars is basically useless.
- rswail 6y ago
  The fact that "Tesla doesn't want unions in general" is a sad anti-pattern. Unions are the way that labor negotiates with capital on an equal basis. The fact that the US has a badly flawed labor market where things that shouldn't be tied to employment (eg healthcare, pensions/retirement) are still tied to employment, is a bug, not a feature. Tesla will not be able to avoid "unions" if they manufacture in Europe. Neither will they be able to avoid standard employer contributions in the form of taxation and employment benefits, like minimum paid vacation and sick leave, etc.
  - mcot2 6y ago
    Tesla gives almost all their factory workers stock. I think that’s worked out well. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-starting-wages-revealed/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-starting-wages-r...
  - nickik 6y ago
    I was just explaining why Tesla will not buy other car makers in the US.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
friedman23 6y ago
This kind of uninformed negativity is why I'm loaded up on GM calls. GM btw, has no debt (at least in the way you are thinking).
- totalZero 6y ago
  If there is a cash takeout, the IV will go down. If there is a share component to a hypothetical acquisition, the IV will potentially increase. However, I'm not sure how likely that is. Just be aware that your Vega p&l could be negative, so extremely long dated calls with a lot of Vega may need a big gap between a cash takeout price and spot in order to be profitable.
  - rlonn 6y ago
    This reads like finance buzz bingo
    - totalZero 6y ago
      I'm just saying that long-dated calls can lose money in a cash acquisition.
  - friedman23 6y ago
    I'm already up 200% on my $150k bet. The IV was basically nothing a month ago.
- pmorici 6y ago
  Yeah I’m sure Tesla is just chomping at the bit to take on a debt portfolio backed by ICE vehicle loans and leases. The assets underlying all that debt are going to have a drastic revaluation as electric takes over. I would bet on a GM bankruptcy within 5 years. GM is blackberry it’s 2008.
- pokerhobo 6y ago
  GM has about $100B in debt https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/09/17407586/a-look-into-general-motorss-debt#/:~:text=General%20Motors's%20Debt%20According%20to%20the%20General%20Motors’s,company%20has%20a%20net%20debt%20of%20$98.94%20billion https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/09/17407586/a-look-into-gen.... Help me understand how I’m misinterpreting this.

SOLAR_FIELDS 6y ago

I think you are more right than wrong in your prediction, but “over the next two years” seems so incredibly optimistic that I’m inclined to call it naïveté instead.

cookiengineer 6y ago
Lots of European countries joined the law that makes fossil fuel burning engines obsolete starting 2030. So he might be right when he says the next two years, because in 5 years it will have been too late already :)
- gbear605 6y ago
  Unless I’m mistaken, that law is for new cars being sold, not existing cars, which just means that they need to have transitioned by then. Obviously it can’t be left to the last minute, but it also doesn’t have to be the next two years (at least for those specific legal issues).
ogre_codes 6y ago
Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. The Cybertruck is 18-24 months out. Rivian is going to be launching their electric truck in the next 18 months as well. That puts Ford's front line vehicle squarely in the headlights. If Ford can't mass produce EVs at a reasonable price in the next 2 years, things are going get increasingly ugly for them. Not end of line in 2 years, but it's just going to get harder to catch up as Tesla and the rest ramp up manufacturing capacity and capture the market. The big problem for Ford/ GM/ Dodge, and all the rest of the latecomers is sourcing batteries. Tesla has spent most of the past 10 years building up capacity and looking in supply while the rest of the auto-makers need to outsource supply in an increasingly competitive market.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  > Within 4 years, Tesla is going to be selling EVs for $25k. GM is selling EVs for $25k right now. The Chevy Bolt probably is the best EV for the money in the world today. The Renault Zoe and the VW ID.3 are not too far off that price and are strong sellers in Europe. A smaller battery version of the ID.3 is coming out this year.

axaxs 6y ago

I simply don't agree. What the old companies have are billions of man hours of experience and engineering. Tesla has cool new tech, but keeps falling apart on things Ford or GM solved 40 years ago. I'm not saying one or the other is better, but it's not like buying some dead useless company.

ogre_codes 6y ago
GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source. Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain squared away. You think GM and Ford are going to pull that out of their ass tomorrow?
- axaxs 6y ago
  No of course not. I guess I meant they could use each others' experience. And it's not about simply assembling things. Ford and GM have tons of engineering and experience on hand.
- chii 6y ago
  It depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly. The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    Capital is there. But that capacity isn't going to come online over-night. "Just sourcing mines"... the capacity for raw materials doesn't exist. New mines have to be dug. That means acquiring property with materials, permitting, sourcing equipment to dig the mines, digging the material, building refining equipment, building factories to package the batteries. All of this takes time to bring online. I'm not saying capacity will never exist, but for the next 5-10 years, auto manufacturers are going to be fighting for as much lithium and battery raw materials as they can get their hands on. Tesla has a handle on this, Ford doesn't. How many years is it going to take for that capacity to come online while Ford/ GM/ etc bleed market share?

imtringued 6y ago

VW is a market leader for EVs in Europe. I would like to know what VW couldn't handle because it's not obvious from your comment. You left a lot of ambiguity.