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The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer
- untoxicness 6y ago"That Harvard Astronomer" is Avi Loeb. Loeb was recently a guest on the Lex Fridman podcast where he talked about Oumuamua amongst other things. [0] I found his view on the subject fascinating and his perspective on science refreshing. [0] https://lexfridman.com/avi-loeb/ https://lexfridman.com/avi-loeb/
- Zigurd 6y agoHe was interviewed for the Kotke Ride Home podcast. He has a book coming out about Oumuamua. I will probably buy the book because Loeb is apparently brilliant. His evaluation of Oumuamua is very interesting. BUT the data about Oumuamua is really really tiny. The science of interstellar objects is nascent. Other than to say "If it is a natural object it is super-strange" I am not sure what else there is to say. In the interview he was articulating theories about it being a cosmic "buoy." So I am anticipating a couple chapters of solid science followed by a lot of speculation, even if it is highly informed speculation.
- throw1234651234 6y agoMy concern is that we aren't going to get much more than what was said in the articles already. I think the beneficial outcome of all of this is that we can identify what to look for next time, and hopefully get funding to do that. I also wonder if, as our tracking tech gets better, it would be relatively cheap to land a bunch of sensors on these and have them go on a ride somewhere in space for much cheaper than launching our own and trying to accelerate it to that velocity, even considering the costs of interception.
- m4rtink 6y agoIf you can intercept an interstellar object to land something on it you can by definition also just launch the thing to the same trajectory. Unless your payload is advanced enough to use the mass of the object for something (fuel, radiation shielding, construction materials, etc.) there is not much benefit in landing on an interstellar object if you just want to launch an interstellar probe. Maybe actually if you wanted to send a really long range message it could help to put it on an interstellar asteroid - much more likely someone would notice a huge mountain flying through their system than a piano sized piece of metal, even if both hold the same message.
- dysfunction 6y agoIf you had really good shock absorbers you could intercept at an orthogonal trajectory and have the impact knock you into the desired trajectory... not practical but fun to think about.
- playerm1 6y agoThe ultimate egg-drop challenge. I'm imagining some Vehicle Assembly Building-sized cloud of aerogel with a paperclip-size payload at the center.
- throw1234651234 6y agoThe other argument is mass - most of the sensor could bury itself in the mass for safety. Yes on trajectory, but no on same trajectory, with same mass. Of course, this might be a moot point, because other than hiding from some radiation and micro-scoping impacts, as well as leaching resources (which we aren't really advanced enough to do), there is no benefit.
- akuchling 6y agoThe Washington Post has a review of the book: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/an-interstellar-accident--or-a-piece-of-alien-technology/2021/01/28/4acd0852-5136-11eb-83e3-322644d82356_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/an-interstellar-accid... Two excerpts from the review: "While this exotic explanation of the object serves as the backbone of the book, Loeb’s broader argument grows out of his bewilderment with the blowback to his hypothesis; he regards it as an omen of imaginative decay and anti-alien bias in the scientific community. ... While it’s tantalizing to imagine that ‘Oumuamua was our first brush with aliens, Loeb writes most memorably about collecting shells on the beach with his daughters, brainstorming trippy new studies with his many proteges and seeking comfort in the view of the night sky from our lonely planet."
- shrimpx 6y agoHis scientific perspective very much reminds me of early Einstein’s. Refreshingly idealistic and foolish.
- narrator 6y agoThe guy doesn't even say it's a probe. He thinks it's likely space junk, but not from us. If you lived on some remote island not near shipping or flight lanes, you'd know people were out there because of all the plastic bottles and crap that would show up on the shore. Same thing basically. The beings who made it could have been extinct for millions of years.
- ryanmercer 6y agoSee also his appearance on Planetary Radio by the he Planetary Society this week https://www.planetary.org/planetary-radio/0127-2021-avi-loeb-extraterrestrial https://www.planetary.org/planetary-radio/0127-2021-avi-loeb...
- ckozlowski 6y agoI'd gotten the impression that Loeb isn't trying to convince the public and scientific community that it was an alien probe so much as is he trying to show it could have been. I think is agenda is to get the community looking for these things more often, perhaps out of some disappointment that if it had been an actual probe (a la "Rendezvous with Rama"), we'd already have missed it. Whether it's worth bending the science to fit this narrative is of course, questionable.
- sandworm101 6y agoHis battle is only partly about Oumuamua. That is just a vehicle for his arguments. The real issue is the bias against life detection experiments generally. Want to sample soil on mars and measure oxygen absorption? Great. We will put your sensor on the next rover. Want to pour nutrients on that soil and see if anything eats it? Go away you crazy person. Want to detect methane in an exoplanet atmosphere? Here is your telescope time. Want to detect CFCs, a likely technosignature? Good luck getting them to return your emails. That bias against definitive binary life detection efforts, solid yes/no answers, underpins Loeb's points on Oumuamua. If we are serious about life detection we should be looking for indisputable artifacts of both primitive and complex life, the later of which includes technological life. Loeb must also fight against widespread public assumptions about the hunt for life, specifically that people think SETI is a giant organization always scanning the sky. The public thinks the scientific community is actually putting in a solid effort to look for aliens. They aren't. We as a society spend more on candycrush than the entire SETI project. Want a definitive answer on whether the next Oumuamua is a light sail? Cough up the money so the scientists can buy the telescope time.
- shmageggy 6y agoYou’re putting a lot of words in his mouth. He did an AMA on reddit yesterday where he had every chance to say such things if that’s what he thinks, but he did little more than list his accomplishments and link to his books and articles. https://old.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/l6xl3d/askscience_ama_series_i_am_avi_loeb_and_im_here/ https://old.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/l6xl3d/askscien...
- eightails 6y agoHow hard is it for people to just admit that we probably have inadequate evidence to reach a solid conclusion. This was the first object of its kind and we had very limited observations of it. From what I've read, none of the hypotheses regarding the measured acceleration (e.g. outgassing vs manufactured solar sail) can really be backed up in any substantial way. So it seems disengenuous to get into vitriolic arguments about it. We just have to keep watching, more thoroughly and with better equipment.
- jcims 6y agoI think some of the vitriol comes around the discussion of whether or not we should develop a mission to go visit it.
- postalrat 6y agoThe conspiracy theorist in my wants to believe that if the military thought it could be from an alien civilization they already have a mission to reach it and would do what they can to prevent any sort of public mission from reaching it.
- jamesdmiller 6y agoBy this logic, the military would have started vaccinating their troops for COVID by March 2020.
- gamapuna 6y agoHere's a recent interview of Avi Loeb on this subject https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DQYiyQ7Tkk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DQYiyQ7Tkk
- nabla9 6y agoThat is probably the best interview/podcast made with Avi Loeb. Mindscape podcast (Sean Carroll) is really good.
- willis936 6y agoOumuamua raises some questions, but the one my mind keeps wandering to is “how common are these interstellar objects?” It poses a serious existential threat to us. We are a tiny target, but we have been able to observe these objects for a very short period of time. Unlike regular solar satellites, they are only visible for a very short period of time. Like comets, if one hit us it would end life on the planet. They don’t need to be massive with how fast they are. We can estimate how many comets are out there with orbital mechanics models, but what about objects originating from outside the solar system? We could one day not wake up because we couldn’t even see one of these coming before it hit us.
- avian 6y ago> We can estimate how many comets are out there with orbital mechanics models, but what about objects originating from outside the solar system? We can estimate the frequency and size of impacts, regardless of the origin of the impacting body, from observing craters on the Earth, moon and other planets. Those show that the "end of life" impacts are pretty rare - the conclusion that also follows from the fact that we're having this discussion here.
- willis936 6y agoThe solar system has an orbital period of 250k years. Nearby systems do not have the same orbital period. I’m not sure galaxies are considered stable to individual stellar systems.
- breck 6y ago> The solar system has an orbital period of 250k years. I thought it was 250 million years, though maybe I'm misunderstanding you. [1] [1] https://www.sciencefocus.com/space/how-long-does-it-take-the-sun-to-orbit-the-galaxy/#:~:text=We%20tend%20to%20think%20of,to%20complete%20a%20single%20orbit https://www.sciencefocus.com/space/how-long-does-it-take-the....
- willis936 6y ago
- arnaudsm 6y agoThe title implies research on Oumuamua was censored, which was never the case.
- andrewflnr 6y agoI think he's just implying that people have been too polite to Loeb before.
- nix23 6y agoSo in other articles hes censoring him self (the peoples he wants to be polite with), or has any title of him about another person the word uncensored?
- andrewflnr 6y agoIt's a clickbait headline, don't overthink it.
- tomiplaz 6y agoHere's also a review of Avi Loeb's arguments written and presented by prof David Kipping from the Cool Worlds Lab: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX_Bj7064Ms https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX_Bj7064Ms
- wsay 6y agoI think the inadequate data is the key point, especially as we've only seen two of these types of things so far - the best we can probably hope for now is to go "This object seemed odd in several ways - let's increase our observations for these kinds of objects and see what the majority turn out to be and importantly if we encounter anything which is odd in similar ways which we can identify". So when the question is posed "What is a responsible scientist to do in this situation?" I think the answer is clearly, accept it as an "out-there" but currently not disprovable hypothesis, and if you feel strongly that it's incorrect, dedicate effort and time to showing with evidence (at least quantifiable empirical evidence) that this is the case, ideally in a published and peer-reviewed paper.
- annoyingnoob 6y agoHow do we jump to the conclusion of aliens with so little information? Why not God sent it?
- asidiali 6y agoIf it comes flying in on an asteroid sized spaceship...what’s the difference?
- nix23 6y agoSpaceship or Gods poo makes a difference i think ;)
- dysfunction 6y ago"Asteroid-sized" in this case isn't all that big- 100m long is a similar size to the ISS, though it probably masses a lot more.
- annoyingnoob 6y agoI suppose that we could imagine any kind of nonsense. We call that fiction not science.
- criddell 6y agoNobody has really jumped to that conclusion. I don't think the author of this article has represented Loeb's views or public statements entirely fairly. Sean Carroll recently interviewed him and if you listen to that, I think you will come away with a very different idea of who Loeb is and what he is saying.
- saberdancer 6y agoOumuamua changed velocity in an unexplained way. This was not expected, but there is an explanation that the object is outgassing and it increases it's velocity. This, along with strange shape made the object interesting for ET speculation.
- vfclists 6y ago
- Tepix 6y agoI find the the unnecessary use of "uncensored" to be offending.
- nix23 6y agoIt looks like forbes needs to label it like that, bloomberg probably calls it premium account ;)
- Vrondi 6y agoDr. Loeb was just a guest on the NPR show "Science Friday" last week, explaining that Science has an obligation to explore these questions instead of dogmatically refusing to explore the possibilities. Interesting listen: https://www.sciencefriday.com/episodes/january-22-2021/ https://www.sciencefriday.com/episodes/january-22-2021/
- idlewords 6y agoWhatever the thing is, it's clearly an interesting object and the only sane response is to build a big rocket to go chase it. But we don't have our shit together civilizationally and have to wait (and hope) that there's a next one. This is one reason that I'm such a big fan of robot probes vs. human space flight. If your space program is about flinging tiny cameras into the remotest reaches of the solar system, it's easier to pursue the occasional alien asteroid on short notice than if you're all about getting a can of primates to the next planet over.
- Sosh101 6y agoIt was already moving away too quickly once discovered, even if we there had been some kind of craft ready.
- px43 6y agoPresumably it's no longer accelerating though, so it doesn't really matter how fast it's going. I guess the thing is still going to be in our solar system for another 15 years or so, so a solar sail or any number of other options exist to launch something towards it. https://i4is.org/what-we-do/technical/project-lyra/ https://i4is.org/what-we-do/technical/project-lyra/ https://www.wired.com/story/should-earthlings-chase-oumuamua-into-interstellar-space/ https://www.wired.com/story/should-earthlings-chase-oumuamua...
- idlewords 6y agoNo such thing as too quickly if you've got a motivated planet.
- Damorian 6y agoI'm just saying, if I wanted to probe every solar system in the galaxy, I'd build a craft with extreme geometry that would fly very close to stars and accelerate for a gravity assist before flying toward the next target star. So it would look exactly like what we saw.
- throw1234651234 6y agoYou would have to identify the star that Oumua is going to for that theory to work. Seems like it should be pretty easy to know if it's going to the nearest star (or coming from one), and it's not originated from or going to Alpha Centauri. The next question is whether or not there is some other logical path that defines logical gravity assists to visit as many stars as possible - nothing like that has been put forward either. Afaik, it's coming from so far away that we have no idea what star it previously visited.
- Damorian 6y agoI don't think it's safe to assume it would come from/go to the nearest stars to us, as the flight path might need extreme changes that aren't in the fuel budget, especially given its already very high speed.
- incompatible 6y agoVery high speed compared to Solar System objects perhaps, but I expect it would still take an enormous amount of time to reach another star.
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- Taylor_OD 6y agoWhat a hit piece. Interesting read but wow this really feels like one guy is annoyed with another guy and decided to write about him in this thinly veiled article.
- chairmanwow1 6y agoYeah this article left a pretty sour taste in mouth. Every interview I've heard with Loeb has been pretty interesting and humble as he purports a new theory.
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- Itinerant662 6y agoContrary to the narratives you’ll find elsewhere, including in Loeb’s new book, Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Life Beyond Earth, this is not a possibility worth taking seriously as a scientist. A straightforward look at the evidence shows us why." -> "Loeb offers only loud, immodest speculation about aliens and diatribes about community groupthink. Coupled with inadequate data, which is the only data we have, he’s impossible to prove wrong."
- krok 6y agoIf something is impossible to prove wrong because of inadequate data isn't that a strong suggestion that further research would be a good idea??
- DiogenesKynikos 6y agoGathering more data on this object is essentially impossible right now. There's a telescope coming online soon (LSST) that should detect many more objects like this, though.
- ignoranceprior 6y agoWhat about that Israeli military official who claimed that there was a Galactic Federation of aliens? Could this be one of their probes?
- dqpb 6y agoUh, link please?
- ignoranceprior 6y agohttps://www.jpost.com/omg/former-israeli-space-security-chief-says-aliens-exist-humanity-not-ready-651405 https://www.jpost.com/omg/former-israeli-space-security-chie...
- voldacar 6y agoThe last two paragraphs are so incredibly lame. The goal of a scientist's life isn't to be "respected by the community." Science and reality don't care what the community thinks and never have. I have no idea if Loeb is right or not. I think for Bayesian reasons (prior is Borisov) he is probably wrong, but there is so little data and Oumuamua is certainly super weird. But this author is a total hack, making arguments from authority and mainstream-ness. If a scientist stops making relevant arguments and instead starts talking about the "consensus" of the "scientific community", run the opposite direction
- jzer0cool 6y agoA while back there was something known as the SETI Project which I could run on my machine. It would collect data from the skies. I'm curious to know SETI project (or something else) was able to capture any data from the skies as well? The skies are monitored and maybe there is some data, somewhere, as an interesting area for us to all explore.
- YeGoblynQueenne 6y ago>> Loeb was a once-respected scientist who made important contributions to astrophysics and cosmology, particularly when it came to black holes and the first stars. But his work on extraterrestrial signatures continues to be largely unappreciated by the community — a position as justifiable as ignoring the comparable idea of Russell’s teapot — and rather than address their scientific objections, he’s stopped listening to other astronomers entirely, instead choosing to try his scientific case in the most unscientific place imaginable: the court of public opinion. This is an attack piece that targets Avi Loeb's character. It's disturbing that the author of the piece is himself an astrophycisist and I have to wonder, if Avi Loeb is calling upon the court of public opinion, what else is this piece, published in Forbes rather than a science venue, doing exactly? Science is a debate. For there to be a debate, there have to be differing opinions. And for there to be differing opinions, there has to be the freedom of scientists to express their opinions. Even poorly supported opinions like Avi Loeb's. What hurts science is bombastic invocations of "the large amounts of research done by other professionals who specialize in this particular field" - as an attempt to stiffle an opionion the author is not fond of with an appeal to authority.
- KingFelix 6y agoI agree and no longer read his articles, and I don't think he provides any value. He often uses statements like this to attack targets, he did the same thing with the last article that came across my news feed for Roger Penrose. >>Hundreds of scientists have pointed this out to Penrose — repeatedly and consistently over a period of more than 10 years — who continues to ignore the field and plow ahead with his contentions. https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2021/01/28/the-uncensored-guide-to-oumuamua-aliens-and-that-harvard-astronomer/?sh=317c23446abe https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2021/01/28/the-...
- thewakalix 6y agoI think you may have meant to link to this page instead? https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/10/08/no-roger-penrose-we-see-no-evidence-of-a-universe-before-the-big-bang/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/10/08/no-r...
- cletus 6y agoI find it kind of sad how desperate people get for certain outcomes, in this case proof of extraterrestrial life. Of course we have limited observations of this object. But that doesn't prove anything. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. But here's where the desperation comes in: false equivalence. Like we have limited observations so you can't prove it ISN'T an artifact of alien life. Like the outcomes of it being artificial and natural in origin are treated as equal. It just seems like the worst application and misunderstanding of the anthropic principle ever. No evidence that it's artificial doesn't mean it's natural. It just means there's no evidence of it being artificial. But absent any evidence, natural origin is the most likely explanation.
- brofallon 6y agoI guess I don't understand what the fundamental disagreement is here. Most astronomers believe the probability that Oumuamua was an alien visitor is very small. Loeb's argument is that the probability may be a bit larger. But we'll (very likely) never actually know which it was, so the disagreement is about the unknown likelihood of a single observed event. It just seems obvious that we'll have to settle for "probably a funnily-shaped rock, but there's a small chance it was something more interesting" and live with that.