4 ms·

The the absolute knuckledraggery of extrapolating data over 100 years + without accounting for all the fat tail of all other events. IF I had told anyone 10 ye

The the absolute knuckledraggery of extrapolating data over 100 years + without accounting for all the fat tail of all other events. IF I had told anyone 10 years ago that a large mob is going to attack Congress and Senate will have to evacuated and a guy dressed up as Viking and shirtless would seat in Speaker s chair people would call me stupid. More such surprises exist in history and in future. Climate change is a non issue if we humans invents a far cheaper and cleaner source of energy. We can use that energy to literally suck and filter out CO2 from air.

Shared404 6y ago
> Climate change is a non issue if we humans invents a far cheaper and cleaner source of energy. We can use that energy to literally suck and filter out CO2 from air. The problem is we have to actually do it.
at_a_remove 6y ago
If
cool_dude85 6y ago
And our political problems will be a non-issue, too, when we invent new political structures and modes of governance that improve well-being for every human on earth 100x compared to today while allowing a 100x reduction in labor. Best not to worry about today's political problems, then.
agumonkey 6y ago
I kinda think like you, I find knowledgeable analysts too keen on forgetting disruption. I don't want to fantasize about potential scifi.. but simply a few discussions about potential research paths and then put some weight behind. There are way more money floating around on useless thing than required to do so for energy/climate solutions.
lumost 6y ago
The physically possible options for energy production haven't changed too much in the last 80 years. Betting on a magical technology to spontaneously emerge in the next 80 seems dubious.
orwin 6y ago
Okay. So let's unpack here. The only cheaper energy source (that include pilotability) would be nuclear. Its not as portable, but it exist. Fission is limited (not really, but minerals will be expensive to mine after a while). So We have Fusion left. ITER will be up before 2028 hopefully. We just found a better way to make our fusion magnetic fields, so this is not a pipedream. BUT even this advance is not enough for sustainable fusion. We have to find an even better way to create our magnetic fields, sustainable under high temperature (probably with high pressure). We recently found a supraconductor that is interesting because it work at "high" temperature (high for physicien is death for people), high pressure. sadly we don't understand shit about all those new supraconductor, we don't even understand CuO supraconductors yet. If we have fusion in 2080, it will be because we invested heavily for this (and we're not). And it is a silver bullet, that we're not allowed to miss, or else. We are signing checks without provision unless we find the right tech, at the right time. My guess is that some will have to pay. Most of us here aren't to concerned (i know i'm not, probably only people living close to the Ohio river should be less concerned than me), but people living in Florida and south of Texas will want to buy a climatised suit if they hope to be able to be out more than 10 day a year by 2080.
- KorematsuFred 6y ago
  > The only cheaper energy source (that include pilotability) would be nuclear. There is no need to make any such assumptions. As I have pointed out just because you and me can't see it right now does not mean something else wont be there. World is complex.
shrimp_emoji 6y ago
"Tipping points" are so-named because, after you've crossed them, you can magically disappear all of the CO2 in the atmosphere away instantly, and it's still too late to reverse the thermodynamic momentum of the bad stuff happening. If we don't stop racing to those tipping points, we'd better get fusion working pretty fast.

Shared404 6y ago

> Climate change is a non issue if we humans invents a far cheaper and cleaner source of energy. We can use that energy to literally suck and filter out CO2 from air. The problem is we have to actually do it.

at_a_remove 6y ago

cool_dude85 6y ago

And our political problems will be a non-issue, too, when we invent new political structures and modes of governance that improve well-being for every human on earth 100x compared to today while allowing a 100x reduction in labor. Best not to worry about today's political problems, then.

agumonkey 6y ago

I kinda think like you, I find knowledgeable analysts too keen on forgetting disruption. I don't want to fantasize about potential scifi.. but simply a few discussions about potential research paths and then put some weight behind. There are way more money floating around on useless thing than required to do so for energy/climate solutions.

lumost 6y ago

The physically possible options for energy production haven't changed too much in the last 80 years. Betting on a magical technology to spontaneously emerge in the next 80 seems dubious.

orwin 6y ago

Okay. So let's unpack here. The only cheaper energy source (that include pilotability) would be nuclear. Its not as portable, but it exist. Fission is limited (not really, but minerals will be expensive to mine after a while). So We have Fusion left. ITER will be up before 2028 hopefully. We just found a better way to make our fusion magnetic fields, so this is not a pipedream. BUT even this advance is not enough for sustainable fusion. We have to find an even better way to create our magnetic fields, sustainable under high temperature (probably with high pressure). We recently found a supraconductor that is interesting because it work at "high" temperature (high for physicien is death for people), high pressure. sadly we don't understand shit about all those new supraconductor, we don't even understand CuO supraconductors yet. If we have fusion in 2080, it will be because we invested heavily for this (and we're not). And it is a silver bullet, that we're not allowed to miss, or else. We are signing checks without provision unless we find the right tech, at the right time. My guess is that some will have to pay. Most of us here aren't to concerned (i know i'm not, probably only people living close to the Ohio river should be less concerned than me), but people living in Florida and south of Texas will want to buy a climatised suit if they hope to be able to be out more than 10 day a year by 2080.

KorematsuFred 6y ago
> The only cheaper energy source (that include pilotability) would be nuclear. There is no need to make any such assumptions. As I have pointed out just because you and me can't see it right now does not mean something else wont be there. World is complex.

shrimp_emoji 6y ago

"Tipping points" are so-named because, after you've crossed them, you can magically disappear all of the CO2 in the atmosphere away instantly, and it's still too late to reverse the thermodynamic momentum of the bad stuff happening. If we don't stop racing to those tipping points, we'd better get fusion working pretty fast.