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Tesla Short Sellers Lost $38B in 2020 as Stock Surged
- hirundo 6y agoThat's a lot of temptation to fulfill someone's own prophesy. I hope Elon takes his security as seriously as he does batteries and rocket nozzles. If he left the helm the intellectual and visionary capital of Tesla might not change much, but the social and financial capital would drop fast and far. I kind of hope he watches too many Bond movies and decides to seal himself in a hidden lair and run things from there. But Apple is still Apple after Jobs. Hopefully the same is true for Tesla and Musk, and we don't find that out for decades.
- ralusek 6y agoI still wouldn't bet against Elon's ghost.
- unwoundmouse 6y agoelon will reincarnate into XÆA-12
- tolbish 6y ago> But Apple is still Apple after Jobs The company is very successful, but does it innovate in the same way? Under Jobs, the introduction of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad were all groundbreaking compared to industry norms at the time, not to mention the focus on usability. I'm genuinely curious which innovations compare since those days.
- aerovistae 6y agoAgree. In my mind the company is a dead man walking despite its revenue and profits. It's no longer the innovation leader and by 2040 will be viewed as Xerox came to be, barring some very unforeseen development.
- Cookingboy 6y agoLOL. I don't know what's more amazing about this comment, the ignorance from not understanding their core competitiveness or the arrogance to predict something with regard to the tech industry in the year 2040.
- dylan604 6y agoYeah, although that's one hell of a caveat that was laid down, "barring some unseen development". Isn't that exactly what we are talking about in how Apple has been able to keep releasing "unseen developments"?
- icanhackit 6y ago> It's no longer the innovation leader Who is and how do you define that? I'd say in some very important spaces they're leaders, such as performance per watt in the mobile CPU space. > by 2040 will be viewed as Xerox came to be If you mean PARC's transition from an innovator to the one trick pony Xerox of today I'd say the difference is Apple keeps delivering high quality products and services in an expansive set of markets - some in so much demand you can't even buy today if you have the money. Those products are rarely if ever the first to market, but always highly competent and aspirational to own. Their consistency in achieving this approximately a decade after Job's death should be a good indicator that they have a robust research, design and marketing process that will keep them moving. I'm sure detractors would put their money on marketing being the primary driver, while happily ignoring Apple's achievements in engineering market-leading SOC's.
- codetrotter 6y ago> I'm genuinely curious which innovations compare since those days. The M1
- tolbish 6y agoThat was my first thought. Is the M1 the result of true innovation or simply vertical integration?
- 1-6 6y agoYes
- Cookingboy 6y agoWhat's your definition of "true innovation"? No, Apple did not invent an ARM ISA CPU, but the they also pushed the hell out of all available technology in their design and implementation. The amount of innovation in that far surpasses pretty much anyone else in the mobile space. You should really read into what they've been doing with their in-house SoC team since the A7.
- AshWolfy 6y agoRyzen 4000 is competitive at 7nm, given how huge the R&D budget was and how long the development time was, if the M1 wasn't as good as it was it would have been a let down
- dylan604 6y agoApple was definitely one of the earlier backers of ARM through Acorn back in the 80s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARM_architecture#Advanced_RISC_Machines_Ltd._%E2%80%93_ARM6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARM_architecture#Advanced_RISC...
- deepnotderp 6y agoApple Silicon was started by Jobs
- 6y ago
- millstone 6y agoApple Watch and AirPods.
- tolbish 6y agoWhat set the AirPods apart from other wireless headphones at the time?
- Philip-J-Fry 6y agoWeren't AirPods the devices which set the trend of having a charging case. Like I don't think they were the longest lasting wireless earphones but they were one of the sleekest designs. And the charging case just helped them achieve that. Now ever wireless earbuds come with a charging case.
- arthurcolle 6y agoThey integrate well with a specific phone type.
- Spartan-S63 6y agoI think the early innovation of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad were a happy confluence of technology reaching a maturation point. We were in a place where batteries were good enough, low power chips were good enough, and everything else could be miniaturized enough to make a compelling and competitive product. I don’t think we’re to another inflection point like that yet. They also weren’t first in a lot of these pursuits, they just did it the best and delivered the best experience. Today, Apple still delivers the best-in-class experience with their devices. They make measured improvement. AR isn’t to the point where glasses are viable. Foldable displays aren’t to the point where they’re viable in the mass market. When they are, Apple will make a big leap forward and “innovate” again. In the mean time, their innovation is simply to continue delivering the most polished experience possible in the marketplace and they continue doing that.
- Cookingboy 6y agoThe Apple Watch now generates more revenue than the entire Swiss watch industry combined. Apple is the largest watchmaker in the world both by revenue and by units sold.
- snypher 6y agoThings cost more, and markets are bigger now. It's like comparing wagon sales to automobiles.
- bobthepanda 6y agoPart of the argument here is that even with pre-existing technologies, the current players have essentially made markets. Smartphones and tablets existed, but consumers didn't buy them in today's numbers until Apple/Android came along.
- jethro_tell 6y agoMost entry level swiss watches watches cost more than an apple watch. So I'm not sure how this is relevant.
- dylan604 6y agoThe price of a Swiss watch means nothing if they don't sell them in quantity. If you build an app that costs $500k to only one user that is still less income than if you sell the app at $5 with 1 million users. That's how it is relevant.
- jethro_tell 6y agoYeah, that's true, but the swiss watch industry still sold 20 million + watches last year. So I still can't see how this applies. It would also probably be fair to say that the swiss watch industry was decimated as carrying a phone became ubiquitous. I think the comparison is relatively apt though. People have one left wrist, and even though the apple watch and a classic watch are different categories. You don't often see people wearing both. So there is competition there for a limited number of wrist slots. And apple is selling more units than team swiss watch. Now, if you wanted to have a conversation about total wrist market share, I'd still guess the swiss watch industry is winning. You don't have to buy a new mechanical watch every other year so units moved isn't as apt a comparison.
- unix_fan 6y agoNo one has been able to beat the success of the iPhone or iPad ever since. If you’re using those two products as the standard, nothing else will compare, not in a long time.
- mullingitover 6y agoFor all the hype around Tesla, their revenues for all of 2020 are less than Apple made selling earbuds and watches. These new products launched after Jobs. Add Apple Silicon to the list of things they're doing, I think they're fine on the innovation front.
- bpodgursky 6y agoI wonder how his will is structured. He's currently unmarried with a number of minor children, but he has a controlling (majority?) share in SpaceX... so who gets those votes in the interim until they come of age? Maybe he has some arrangement where the shares are held in trust, and voting power lies with some trusted lieutenant like Gwynne Shotwell? I'd hope so — central control over the SpaceX vision has been absolutely critical over the past decade, and needs to stay that way until Starships are landing on Mars, if his vision of Mars settlement has any hope of happening.
- shiftpgdn 6y agoI would guess the majority would goto his brother.
- bpodgursky 6y agoI don't know the details of their relationship but that would not be a standard or default US will. Afaik spouses come first, then children, then parents, then siblings, on and out.
- barnacled 6y agoVery ironic given Elon's endless tirades about short sellers. The problem solves itself...
- Simulacra 6y agoI can't help but have zero sympathy for short sellers, and others to try to game the market. It doesn't seem like anything positive comes from shorting a stock other than someone getting rich.
- emerged 6y agoI take pleasure in their pain, as an anti-cynic
- dilyevsky 6y agoI think this comment is peak irony. Also a fundamental misunderstanding of how markets work
- confidantlake 6y agoI disagree. Shorters are just taking the other side of the bet, ie they think the asset is priced too highly.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- throwaway894345 6y agoI don't know much about economics. Is short selling "gaming the market"? Doesn't it help to counterbalance bubbles? I'm speculating wildly here; hopefully someone can educate me.
- apta_ 6y agoShort selling is legalized gambling, much like options. Lots of people see both of those activities as immoral.
- throwaway894345 6y agoBecause it’s risky? Surely the same applies with respect to investing in a company, no?
- jdmoreira 6y ago“the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
- areoform 6y agoI will cite this example in the future of the fact that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I find it incredibly fascinating that almost all the "smart money" has done hedges and shorted TSLA, while the flood of casual pandemic investors has bought into it. TSLA as a stock is a fascinating example of how price discovery can fail in times of irrational exuberance and that, in the short-to-medium term, markets aren't efficient nor rational. In 2014, I saw the opportunity to short a broader sector of the economy, we wrote up a white paper and identified market targets etc that would correlate with my observed trend. But I did not pull the trigger as I lacked the necessary knowledge to understand and time the trades. My prediction came true. But sadly I was unable to capitalize on it. The TSLA situation is similar. It's clear that the valuation has become disconnected from reality. But how do you time the inevitable collapse of the bubble? How do you model something as bizarre as this form of irrational exuberance? Do you induce it through a Pershing Square/Bill Ackman style campaign? Do you fund research into the flaws of the product, highlight it, and hope to induce the correction? Or, do you use other signals to time the purchase and mechanics of your short? In other words, what do you do when the world around you has gone insane?
- vmception 6y agoThe trend is your friend Bet on winners Stop out quickly
- Hypx 6y agoAs Buffett once said how markets behave like Cinderella at the ball. Everyone tries to stay until right before midnight, except you have no way of knowing when it's midnight.
- qaq 6y agoStart a hedge fund ?
- fractionalhare 6y agoThe parent commenter's point is specifically asking how an investor (such as a hedge fund) should actually pursue the short so that it's successful. Most TSLA shorts are institutional; just starting a hedge fund is insufficient.
- goertzen 6y agoI love HN. It’s probably my favourite news source. And usually I enjoy the comments just as much as the actual articles. But I’m honestly wondering if the comments are generated by some version of GPT. - quote comment - interesting comment —- contrary point to interesting comment —— second level contrary point to contrary point ——- N contrary point - citation point - downvoted nonsense - empathic point - cynical point —- anti-cynical point ——- anti-anti-cynical point - useless but none the less necessary bookend quote comment
- atian 6y agoThe market is always right. Everything makes sense if you have enough information. If something doesn't make sense that means you don't have enough information.
- bconnorwhite 6y agoThe market is usually right, but the market doesn't have all the information either.
- CrazyStat 6y agoSo Enron's valuations before its collapse were "right"? dotcom bubble valuations ca. 2000 were "right"? Your claim seems obviously wrong except in the tautological sense that the "right" valuation is whatever the market says it is.
- atian 6y agoYes, it's rhetoric but also everyone forgets that the stock market is a game.
- arcticbull 6y agoidk I made a lot of money selling January $800 calls haha