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Prolonged lockdowns and new habits kill 75% of small businesses and greatly increase inequality as the richest 10% stay at home saving/investing instead of spen

Prolonged lockdowns and new habits kill 75% of small businesses and greatly increase inequality as the richest 10% stay at home saving/investing instead of spending. This will trigger an economic collapse which will bring down the eurozone. Germany will want country rated euros to avoid having to bail Italy. House prices in Europe will drop to a rent / value rate similar to the USA, as property owners scrap for money. USA will face similar problems and inflation will start being a problem. China will start buying more in Europe and USA (same as they did with Africa).

dnautics 6y ago
I think eurozone collapse will begin in germany, centered around the collapse of deutsche bank. No other scenario will make sense. Although it will still be bad, the uk will have dodged a bigger bullet with brexit.
- friedman23 6y ago
  I can't see DB being big or important enough to cause the collapse of Germany. I could be wrong.
- brobinson 6y ago
  Italy's sovereign debt crisis is going to be a nuke compared to the firecracker that was the Greek crisis in 2012.
- drawfloat 6y ago
  As the UK didn't use the euro anyway, I don't think it will change how much the country would be impacted by a Eurozone collapse (ie: still seriously impacted)
- kkdaemas 6y ago
  Doubtful, the UK would suffer greatly from reduced demand for their goods and services.
- throwaway2245 6y ago
  Since the UK was never in the eurozone, if anything it would be more affected in this scenario following Brexit. In that scenario, the UK will have no influence in the EU and not a single person in the EU will think it's important to protect Britain's political interests.
  - dnautics 6y ago
    You don't think that the EC will make demands that non eurozone countries (SE, DK) participate in non-monetary aspects of bailout of the eurozone in the case of such a collapse?
    - throwaway2245 6y ago
      You don't think they would make demands of the UK?
onion2k 6y ago
inflation will start being a problem If that happens then interest rates will rise, which will be very, very bad for both businesses and home owners. If it happened quickly enough it'd make 2008 look like a walk in the park.
- onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago
  Why would interest rates rise? They're completely manipulated. If interest rates rising would kill businesses, then they will be manipulated not to rise.
  - aeternum 6y ago
    Because the choice will be interest rates or inflation
    - runawaybottle 6y ago
      But it’s been made very clear every major economy wants inflation. Interest rates ain’t never going back up, ask Japan.
      - Aeolun 6y ago
        Few trillion in national debt. Who cares. I thought it was quite interesting that 30% of the budget is debt servicing. If they didn’t have any debt, they wouldn’t need to loan any money.
- adventured 6y ago
  The US isn't going to start facing meaningful consumer inflation for the exact same reason Japan didn't / hasn't. And for the same reason all the Keynesian economists have been hilariously baffled by Japan's situation for decades now, they'll be entirely baffled (and have been for the past decade) by the US and its 0% rates not spurring rampant inflation. Their dogmatic, borderline religious, belief in their wrong ideology makes it impossible for them to understand what's actually happening. They're entirely blind. The ever-expanding massive pile of debt robs the economy of dynamism, which prompts an economic heat death. That's what happened to Japan and it's exactly the reason US growth keeps trending ever downward and will continue to and why the Fed has been doing crazy shit and can't spur the expected inflation result. The US has begun to suffer a debt-based heat death economically, where the cost of debt and the (mis)allocation of capital to low-return (de facto junk) debt robs the economy of the capital required for investment to expand effectively. And the more debt piles up the worse the effect gets, until you get to a point where the bureaucrats in charge just start doing direct currency chop-downs (aka mauling the population's standard of living), which is the point Japan arrived at several years ago. You end up with tens of trillions of dollars tied up yielding zip, heat death. Covid accelerated the dire fiscal situation for the US by nearly a decade, which is about to hand China the keys to taking superpower charge of half of the planet (if you're in Asia, you're particularly about to be screwed, as the US is going to be increasingly forced to stand-down there; before the decade is out, a transfer of hegemonic power will occur in Asia). The US is now blatantly bankrupt and spiraling (not just slipping toward it, the US is sprinting at it), it will be forced to pull back. The US jumped right to print to fund everything mode (there is nobody to buy $1.5-$2 trillion in junk debt every year other than the Fed), which will speed up the heat death by a lot (and as that gets worse, the politicians will want to spend ever greater sums to attempt to offset the stagnation to placate the angry voters, which will make it worse even faster; spiral). If China didn't release the virus on purpose, strategically it would make perfect sense to do so (and hell, if you're them you might consider doing it again given the amazing results, their global export share is now the highest for any nation since the US in 1981). And to throw a new wrench into the economic disaster, the American population has had enough of it all. The clowns in charge in DC can no longer throw around bailouts without having to pay off the public with magic printed money too. They'll never be able to do bailouts again without throwing large sums of money at the public (all via debt and currency destruction, adding to the previously mentioned economic heat death scenario). $2,000 stimulus checks? $463 billion, 2/3 of the military budget. You see the choice that's coming very soon? The bureaucrats can feel it at this point, their senses are tingling; this, or that; this, or that; which will it be? For a bit yet they can pretend we can do both, but that won't last much longer at the rate Rome is fiscally burning. Then all hell breaks loose (already begun) as the factions start to eat eachother over priorities. Europe is enjoying much of the same effect, including the intense economic stagnation (for 13-14 years now Western Europe has seen zero net GDP growth, and it'll continue). Trillions of euros held in garbage paper yielding negative, their economies have been in the freezer for a long time now. Nothing like paying a government to eat you. Inflation will once again surprise the clown economists. Golly gee, what magic is this such that 0% rates aren't causing a lot of inflation. Golly gee it worked before, what's different now versus the 1970s. We just can't figure it out, our textbooks say this should work. Print more fiat, we gotta spur inflation! $20 trillion in worthless Keynesian stimulation isn't enough? Print more! We'll find the number eventually, keep digging that hole. No field has more idiots than economics.
tonyedgecombe 6y ago
If I had a euro for every time I've heard a prediction of the collapse of the euro I'd be rich by now.
- majewsky 6y ago
  > If I had a euro for every time I've heard a prediction of the collapse of the euro the Euro would have collapsed because of devaluation by now. FTFY
- atmosx 6y ago
  Let's hope a that a Euro collapse won't lead into the 3rd WW in 3-5 years. People have _very_ short memory and are very eager to point fingers at each other.
Izkata 6y ago
> Prolonged lockdowns and new habits kill 75% of small businesses Hey now, we're talking about predictions, not things that have already happened...

dnautics 6y ago

I think eurozone collapse will begin in germany, centered around the collapse of deutsche bank. No other scenario will make sense. Although it will still be bad, the uk will have dodged a bigger bullet with brexit.

friedman23 6y ago
I can't see DB being big or important enough to cause the collapse of Germany. I could be wrong.
brobinson 6y ago
Italy's sovereign debt crisis is going to be a nuke compared to the firecracker that was the Greek crisis in 2012.
drawfloat 6y ago
As the UK didn't use the euro anyway, I don't think it will change how much the country would be impacted by a Eurozone collapse (ie: still seriously impacted)
kkdaemas 6y ago
Doubtful, the UK would suffer greatly from reduced demand for their goods and services.
throwaway2245 6y ago
Since the UK was never in the eurozone, if anything it would be more affected in this scenario following Brexit. In that scenario, the UK will have no influence in the EU and not a single person in the EU will think it's important to protect Britain's political interests.
- dnautics 6y ago
  You don't think that the EC will make demands that non eurozone countries (SE, DK) participate in non-monetary aspects of bailout of the eurozone in the case of such a collapse?
  - throwaway2245 6y ago
    You don't think they would make demands of the UK?

onion2k 6y ago

inflation will start being a problem If that happens then interest rates will rise, which will be very, very bad for both businesses and home owners. If it happened quickly enough it'd make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago
Why would interest rates rise? They're completely manipulated. If interest rates rising would kill businesses, then they will be manipulated not to rise.
- aeternum 6y ago
  Because the choice will be interest rates or inflation
  - runawaybottle 6y ago
    But it’s been made very clear every major economy wants inflation. Interest rates ain’t never going back up, ask Japan.
    - Aeolun 6y ago
      Few trillion in national debt. Who cares. I thought it was quite interesting that 30% of the budget is debt servicing. If they didn’t have any debt, they wouldn’t need to loan any money.
adventured 6y ago
The US isn't going to start facing meaningful consumer inflation for the exact same reason Japan didn't / hasn't. And for the same reason all the Keynesian economists have been hilariously baffled by Japan's situation for decades now, they'll be entirely baffled (and have been for the past decade) by the US and its 0% rates not spurring rampant inflation. Their dogmatic, borderline religious, belief in their wrong ideology makes it impossible for them to understand what's actually happening. They're entirely blind. The ever-expanding massive pile of debt robs the economy of dynamism, which prompts an economic heat death. That's what happened to Japan and it's exactly the reason US growth keeps trending ever downward and will continue to and why the Fed has been doing crazy shit and can't spur the expected inflation result. The US has begun to suffer a debt-based heat death economically, where the cost of debt and the (mis)allocation of capital to low-return (de facto junk) debt robs the economy of the capital required for investment to expand effectively. And the more debt piles up the worse the effect gets, until you get to a point where the bureaucrats in charge just start doing direct currency chop-downs (aka mauling the population's standard of living), which is the point Japan arrived at several years ago. You end up with tens of trillions of dollars tied up yielding zip, heat death. Covid accelerated the dire fiscal situation for the US by nearly a decade, which is about to hand China the keys to taking superpower charge of half of the planet (if you're in Asia, you're particularly about to be screwed, as the US is going to be increasingly forced to stand-down there; before the decade is out, a transfer of hegemonic power will occur in Asia). The US is now blatantly bankrupt and spiraling (not just slipping toward it, the US is sprinting at it), it will be forced to pull back. The US jumped right to print to fund everything mode (there is nobody to buy $1.5-$2 trillion in junk debt every year other than the Fed), which will speed up the heat death by a lot (and as that gets worse, the politicians will want to spend ever greater sums to attempt to offset the stagnation to placate the angry voters, which will make it worse even faster; spiral). If China didn't release the virus on purpose, strategically it would make perfect sense to do so (and hell, if you're them you might consider doing it again given the amazing results, their global export share is now the highest for any nation since the US in 1981). And to throw a new wrench into the economic disaster, the American population has had enough of it all. The clowns in charge in DC can no longer throw around bailouts without having to pay off the public with magic printed money too. They'll never be able to do bailouts again without throwing large sums of money at the public (all via debt and currency destruction, adding to the previously mentioned economic heat death scenario). $2,000 stimulus checks? $463 billion, 2/3 of the military budget. You see the choice that's coming very soon? The bureaucrats can feel it at this point, their senses are tingling; this, or that; this, or that; which will it be? For a bit yet they can pretend we can do both, but that won't last much longer at the rate Rome is fiscally burning. Then all hell breaks loose (already begun) as the factions start to eat eachother over priorities. Europe is enjoying much of the same effect, including the intense economic stagnation (for 13-14 years now Western Europe has seen zero net GDP growth, and it'll continue). Trillions of euros held in garbage paper yielding negative, their economies have been in the freezer for a long time now. Nothing like paying a government to eat you. Inflation will once again surprise the clown economists. Golly gee, what magic is this such that 0% rates aren't causing a lot of inflation. Golly gee it worked before, what's different now versus the 1970s. We just can't figure it out, our textbooks say this should work. Print more fiat, we gotta spur inflation! $20 trillion in worthless Keynesian stimulation isn't enough? Print more! We'll find the number eventually, keep digging that hole. No field has more idiots than economics.

tonyedgecombe 6y ago

If I had a euro for every time I've heard a prediction of the collapse of the euro I'd be rich by now.

majewsky 6y ago
> If I had a euro for every time I've heard a prediction of the collapse of the euro the Euro would have collapsed because of devaluation by now. FTFY
atmosx 6y ago
Let's hope a that a Euro collapse won't lead into the 3rd WW in 3-5 years. People have _very_ short memory and are very eager to point fingers at each other.

Izkata 6y ago

> Prolonged lockdowns and new habits kill 75% of small businesses Hey now, we're talking about predictions, not things that have already happened...