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This is starting to make increasingly more sense even though Apple making a car seemed laughable a few years ago. Apple is fundamentally now a company that can

This is starting to make increasingly more sense even though Apple making a car seemed laughable a few years ago. Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment. In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is because the tech behind it is increasingly getting commoditized (though they work hard to stay slightly ahead). But people love Tesla and it's the first choice EV because they've really thought through the UX of a semi-self driving car EV thoroughly. Apple is just about the only company with a similar ethos and enough money and patience to be a viable competitor and have a competitive brand known for quality.

finnh 6y ago
> Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. Also: insane supply-chain management chops, a skill that is more and more transferable - especially for electric cars.
- localhost 6y ago
  But Apple have outsourced all their manufacturing. That, as we've seen in Tesla's struggles, is a huge component of making a successful product. Agree with the vertical integration aspect + nearly unlimited capital.
  - cortesoft 6y ago
    Yeah, that is what modern supply chain management is.... being able to manage a ton of different outsourced suppliers
    - petra 6y ago
      Car manufacturers manage a ton of different outsourced suppliers. Yet still, they manufacture cars on their own.
      - Luc 6y ago
        Not always. You can have Magna Steyr develop and/or assemble cars for you. They’ve done so for a long time, for big brands like BMW and Audi too.
      - ardit33 6y ago
        not all of them... many do outsource lower volume cars (usually luxury) to third parties. "Magna currently holds contracts to produce vehicles for BMW, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota."
        fomine3 6y ago
        But is there any car manufacturer that fully outsourced manufacturing? It seems that owning factory is important to design cars.
- treis 6y ago
  I'm not sure I see that. Clearly they are good at making computer like things, but it's not like they're God's gift to supply chain management. There's been quite a few mistakes over the years. Hard to see them doing better than car companies that have been building cars for decades. I'm also not sure what Apple's edge here is. At this point all I really want out of an entertainment center is a screen for my phone to plug into. Everything else is better done as knobs and buttons.
  - sneak 6y ago
    > Everything else is better done as knobs and buttons. Apple is quite good at knobs and buttons, and what may eventually become interior finishes.
    - function_seven 6y ago
      When they decide to implement a hardware control, it's usually done well. But their records is hit-and-miss in my opinion. Good: iPod click wheel, iPhone side buttons/switches, old chiclet keyboards, trackpad. Bad: Butterfly keyboards, AppleTV remote is awful (swipes and edge-clicks for all sorts of things), their mice have always been a pain to use (wanna right click? Better lift your left finger completely away from the mouse) But they also aggressively remove physical interfaces where possible. One-button mice, removal of home button on iPhone, removal of function keys on MacBooks, etc. I hope they don't do that with a car. There should be a dozen knobs and buttons that have dedicated features. Not just wipers and signals either. I'm talking about volume control, seat adjustments, windows, etc.
      - daniellarusso 6y ago
        I look forward to steering and shifting gears with a multipoint touchscreen, don’t you?
      - chipotle_coyote 6y ago
        I hadn't thought about this until your comment. While I think Apple building a car is... dubious (both the idea that they would and that they should even if they can), I'd been thinking "well, at least Apple is good at UI," but I really don't like Tesla-esque touchscreen-for-everything auto interfaces, and that would be a serious temptation for Apple.
- ajross 6y ago
  I don't know that I completely buy that. Shipping/transport and resource management at the scale of automobile production is a rather different world than consumer electronics where literally everything anyone cares about fits on a plain old wooden pallet. Apple does have smart people, and they obviously have a ton of cash. So they absolutely could make a play here. But to imagine that they'll walk in to a market that Tesla has been growing successfully in for a decade and be competitive out of the gate seems like a stretch.
  - reitzensteinm 6y ago
    I 100% agree Apple won't walk in and be competitive out the gate. But who in this chain is claiming that? Grandparent specifically listed patience as an Apple virtue, which implies they'll need staying power.
  - st1x7 6y ago
    As a company that is running mostly on brand status, Tesla is probably the easiest competitor for Apple to beat in this space. The real competition are the companies that have been building cars for decades.
    - ajross 6y ago
      > As a company that is running mostly on brand status They shipped like half a million cars this year! They own like 70-80% of every EV market they compete in. This is the kind of criticism you'd read about Tesla in 2014. The companies that "have been building cars for decades" are getting stomped by Tesla in this space, 12x more Model 3's were sold than LEAF's in the US last year. At some point the established wisdom among some people that Tesla is failing is going to change, right? The ship has sailed on that, left the harbor, and is half way across the ocean by now. And the weirdest thing here is that it's not an attempt to attack Tesla from the perspective of established auto makers but from Apple Computer, a company with no experience at all in the market and almost nothing to bring to the table but "brand status" (and a freighter full of cash, of course).
      - 6y ago
- foxtr0t 6y ago
  Despite becoming more similar in recent years, the cell phone supply chain is still very different than the automotive supply chain. The number of parts/unit differs by an order of magnitude and so does the size and weight, not to mention manufacturing techniques and materials. These are capabilities, not so much skills, and they aren't as transferable as you may think. For instance, logistically things are very different in the automotive space. Many, many more people are required to ship a single unit. You also have many more variables that can hold up a production line anywhere in the hierarchy because you rely on more 3rd parties for parts. While these things are also true of consumer electronics, you may rely on a dozen suppliers for an iPhone, car companies often rely on hundreds. Materials are also very different in the automotive space. You have to build with materials that will last 100k miles driving a 80mph in all weather, day/night, freezing/scorching etc etc. It is a very long tail to cover. Apple can do it, but it will take years and many, many partners to get it done.
  - natch 6y ago
    The engine of my electric car has one moving part. One. Made in house from raw materials. Rolls of steel, copper, and aluminum. It’s also considered a single part for manufacturing and servicing purposes. So not simply one moving part. One part, period. >The number of parts/unit differs by an order of magnitude >car companies often rely on hundreds of suppliers See above. You must be thinking of ICE cars. >aren’t as transferable as you may think Other than pulling a few things off the shelf like tires, windshields, and wheels (and more; those are just a few examples) the manufacturer of my car stated from scratch. Prodigiously hard for sure but Apple is good at hard. >will last 100k miles Try one million. >will take years Again Apple excels at this. The real problem for Apple is having Tesla as a competitor. They are used to competing with Google, but it’s easy to compete with lame. Tesla is not lame, by a long stretch.
    - foxtr0t 6y ago
      I was waiting for the Muskians to swoop in and spread their nonsense. Guess what? I drive a white model 3 long range AWD and I love it. I'm still 1: an engineer with 10 years of hardware experience and 2: skeptical of every ounce of BS Elon Musk has ever spread. You know how many parts are under the car? Have you taken one apart? They're complicated machines with, again, orders of magnitude more parts than a phone. Forget ICE vehicles, we're just talking about EVs and iPhones. You don't think Tesla relies on thousands of suppliers? Who do you think makes the screens, wiring hardness, cameras, brakes, glass, acoustic devices, steering, battery temp management, motorized seats, etc etc. And who do you think supplies their parts? And theirs? And so on and so forth. Its a complicated web of suppliers and manufacturers, much more so than what goes into a single iPhone (which is still very complicated). This is why a Tesla costs 35k+ and an iPhone costs ~1k. There are more parts that are more complicated and manufacturing them takes more time, effort, and people. Elon may have a magic car printer in his wet dreams but that won't happen in reality for four, five, or six decades. Also, nobody, I repeat, absolutely nobody is holding their breath for you to hit 1m miles in your Tesla. Currently they don't even have a story for repair and so many parts are fused that if something breaks you can't replace it. The car is totaled. I recommend you watch all of the early Rich Rebuilds on YouTube if you really want to understand some of the nitty gritty details of these vehicles. Yes they are simpler than a normal ICE. By an order of magnitude? Certainly not. Progress is made at the margins, in increments of 1% then 5% then 10% then 15%. Not 1000% in one swoop. EDIT: clarification
- vkou 6y ago
  I don't think you can supply-chain-manage your way into making cars. The hard part of manufacturing automobiles isn't design, it's manufacturing. You can't just pay some third party contractor to spin up a car factory that does 90% of the work for you, like you can with electronics.
- jandrese 6y ago
  I can just see Apple now, milling the entire body of the car out of a single block of aluminum using a 4 axis C&C machine.
  - contingencies 6y ago
    You would typically use five axes for complex parts unless there was a compelling reason not to. Interestingly, as I am buying one at the moment (our first) I had a chance to talk to different machine shops about their different brands here in China. They alleged that foreign dual use export restrictions have resulted in a situation where China's local five axis machines are now both cheaper and more accurate than the available foreign imports (source: major prototyping shop, machine count >20, machine brands 3x, 5 axis count 10+). This was supported by the second shop I visited who also said they will no longer buy imports.
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    > single block of aluminum iCar Space gray, chamfered edges, 115 hp, 4 wheels $100,000
    - HPsquared 6y ago
      An alternate reality where Apple makes the Cybertruck.
  - cossatot 6y ago
    "a bicycle for the body"
  - icanhackit 6y ago
    You're joking but interestingly Tesla at the Battery Day presentation revealed a giant injection mould to make the aluminium chassis for one of their cars, which will simplify the manufacturing process. So we're going into uni-body territory but with a faster, simpler process than milling/printing. If Apple is happy buying thousands of milling machines for laptops and phones, a chassis injection mould might be the process they'd need to break into the car space.
- 627467 6y ago
  I guess a car is similar to a cellphone like a car is similar to a cruise ship...
- Supermancho 6y ago
  > a skill that is more and more transferable - especially for electric cars. What does that matter? There are Car manufacturers that have basically had infinite capitalization and funding for a decade and the legal system + technology barriers just didn't move. Supply chain was never an issue. Apple's not going to see any different results, so I am puzzled by this optimism.
SkyMarshal 6y ago
>Apple is just about the only company with a similar ethos and enough money and patience to be a viable competitor and have a competitive brand known for quality. Mostly agree, though I suspect a few of the major car companies like Volkswagon/Audi and Toyota/Lexus are capable of this as well. But yes, Apple has the cash reserves to not just manufacture electric cars, but to build out the necessary infrastructure network as well: - charging stations blanketing the country - battery replacement stations for faster "charging" on the fly - local maintenance stations - etc.. Apple could centralize sales to Apple's website, and transform "dealer networks" into "maintenance networks". Sales can be handled in a centralized manner, but maintenance still requires locality. All that requires large upfront CapEx, but Apple is one of the few that has more than enough cash reserves for that.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  Tesla and Apple have figured out that could is a better stock multiplier than does.
  - SkyMarshal 6y ago
    Isn't that how the entire stock market works? Valuations based on net present value of future projected earnings. You just need a story about future earnings that enough of the market will buy into. Both Apple and Tesla have enough track record to credibly tell such a story.
    - ethbr0 6y ago
      Net present value of future projected earnings, adjusted for risk. That last part seems to be missing. Likely because the smart money knows that retail investors + indices = momentum trading on sectors. As there's no ability for anyone to call BS in the way they used to be able to. Or to put it another way: if I'm Toyota, I have a demonstrated ability to build cars profitably. If I'm someone who says I can build as many cars as Toyota, how many pitfalls are there between what I say I can do and actually doing it? Admittedly, corporate conservatism and risk avoidance in leadership is absolutely a thing, but it feels like we're rewarding claims of execution over actual execution.
jariel 6y ago
All of that is true, but cars are huge in terms of complexity, the types of labour/supply chains, distribution, etc. etc.. I guess they are the company to 'try it' but really it's a monster bet. It'd be interesting if they have an 'angle' that allows them to start small, possibly with a specific kind of public transport or closed-system solution for urban transport, with entities like Dubai (i.e. cash flush) buying in big.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  The angle would be treating it as a new front in the war with Google and Microsoft. Car = game console = phone = laptop Just another platform to own, so that one might control and tax users there-on.
  - jariel 6y ago
    That's a point on a strategy slide, not the 'angle' that gives them an entry point into the market. It doesn't make design/manufacture/distribute cars - a massively complex thing - any easier. It's very hard to enter markets against big incumbents, there needs to be some kind of approach. Apple can expect to lose a lot of money for a very long time unless they are doing something tangential.
crb002 6y ago
Apple is no better than Qt in this space - and it will only make electronics - assembly will still be on Ford/GM - Tesla's revolution is a more automated assembly.
- sixQuarks 6y ago
  Don't know why you're being downvoted. Musk has consistently said their main goal is to become the most advanced manufacturer in the world. Building the machine that builds the machine is what they're aiming for.
  - sjwright 6y ago
    Probably because Tesla hasn't had much success in terms of advancement of automated assembly. They went down the same rabbit hole that a few other automakers already explored and discovered what others already did—that high levels of factory automation simply doesn't work. (Yet.) At best, Tesla factories are currently comparable to the state of the art in terms of car factory automation.
    - sixQuarks 6y ago
      You obviously don't follow Tesla very closely. Sandy Munro of Munro associates has literally called Tesla's engineering "mind blowing" and at least 5 years ahead of any other manufacturer. If you are not familiar, Sandy Munro is one of the leading automotive manufacturing experts, if not the top expert. So I'm going to take his word for it rather than yours.
      - sjwright 6y ago
        YOU obviously don't follow Tesla very closely. When the great grandparent said "Tesla's revolution is a more automated assembly", they were flat wrong which is something Elon himself admitted. Tesla tried to go big on automated assembly and failed. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984882630947753984 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984882630947753984 I have watched most all of Sandy's videos; they are orthogonal to assembly automation. The exceptionally impressive things Tesla have done in later revisions of the Model 3/Y (particularly the octovalve and the rear body castings) are related to advanced manufacturing methods which reduce part counts. Not factory automation. Sandy is very good at styling himself as a premier industry expert—and he's quite likely one of the greatest automotive manufacturing experts on YouTube. But I don't think most serious automotive manufacturing experts are spending much time posting on YouTube...
lock-free 6y ago
I have an Apple Card, I'm unsure of what immense capital they're pouring into it with an underlying ethos of user experience.
- underseacables 6y ago
  Backed by Goldman Sachs, a company that destabilizes whole economies for profit. Apple isn’t exactly hiding which side of the income spectrum they prefer.
  - ianai 6y ago
    Right. They surely could have gone with a better institution if they were honestly making the best product for their customers.
    - deleted 6y ago
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    - deleted 6y ago
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- poulsbohemian 6y ago
  RE: User experience - best card I’ve ever used. Integrates with my watch and phone in such a way that I don’t even have to pull it out to pay. Can dispute charges with a single text. Easy to see full details of spending and billing. The cash back pays for my monthly Apple One account too.
  - rswail 6y ago
    Apple Pay has not very much to do with the Apple card. Apple Pay is a logical extension of contactless, which has been available around the world for years. The world moved to chip&pin at least 5 years ago and moved to contactless for small money amounts (<AUD100 <GBP30) at least 3-4 years ago. Apple & Google's changes for CC are mostly in the tokenization standard, building the backends for issuers. The Apple Card is a US only need, because the US is stuck on chip&sign and Visa/MC have been unable to force the retailers to replace their ancient POS equipment. Plus big retailers don't like not having access to the full PAN of an account and tracking customers.
jrib 6y ago
> they've really thought through the UX of a semi-self driving car Minor side note. I'm sure a lot of the experience is well-designed but I can't help but grimace every time I see that huge touch tablet instead of physical buttons on the dashboard.
- zaroth 6y ago
  That’s Ok. A lot of people thought keyboards on phones were an absolute requirement too. Like with phones, having touch screen control everything provides extraordinary flexibility in rolling out new software features and ultimately improving UX. Remember this design is supposed to lead the way into an FSD future achieved through purely software updates. Whether they succeed in automating the majority of miles driven, they designed the car with that future fully in mind. For what it’s worth, it’s one of my favorite parts of the car, and certainly it’s my kids favorite part of the car.
  - rtx 6y ago
    I have never felt safe using any touch screen while driving.
    - macintux 6y ago
      What you’re missing, though, is that from Tesla’s perspective you shouldn’t be driving while trying to use it. Or much at all. I prefer hardware to software and I’d hate to control my Jeeps with a touchscreen but my Jeeps aren’t driving themselves.
      - deleted 6y ago
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    - bananabreakfast 6y ago
      That's okay, you won't be the one driving soon enough
      - 6y ago
andrewmcwatters 6y ago
> Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment. Apple has had multiple credit cards in the past.
- ipsum2 6y ago
  I couldn't find anything about this after a brief Google, and the Wikipedia article for Apple Card doesn't say anything about this. Could you provide more information? Edit: found this after more Googling: https://www.cultofmac.com/614988/apple-credit-card-histor/ https://www.cultofmac.com/614988/apple-credit-card-histor/
nolangerner 6y ago
"In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is because the tech behind it is increasingly getting commoditized (though they work hard to stay slightly ahead). But people love Tesla and it's the first choice EV because they've really thought through the UX of a semi-self driving car EV thoroughly". No need to theorize at this point. Plenty have pointed out how overinflated Teslas value is at this point. It's pretty much cult of personality that is propping them up at this point. Tesla is actually very similar to Apple in that they "pioneered" a new market and that has created an identity of leadership in that market. I'm not sure Tesla is going to be able to keep up as the competition continues to grow rapidly.
- balls187 6y ago
  Have you driven Tesla and other comparable EV's? From my experience, Tesla's tech (I drive a VW) is ahead of their competition pretty handily. The new Ford Mustang Mach looks competitive, but even that is still at least 9 months away. The VW id4 EV is sold out, and they are taking pre-orders for the next batch. Tesla has first mover advantage when it comes to mass market EV's. It's not just cult of personality.
  - coliveira 6y ago
    If even Ford is able to deliver something close to Tesla, this is big proof that they don't have anything unique to offer.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    > first mover advantage Did you mean second? There actually can be a lot of advantage to being the second mover. Nissan had already sold 100000 units of the Leaf between 2010-2014, while Tesla had sold up to that point only 16k cars. Clearly, Tesla wasn't the first mass-market EV. Indeed, it seems obvious in hindsight that Tesla's success owed mainly to ignoring the mass market and selling very expensive cars at first.
    - balls187 6y ago
      Yes, that slipped my mind. I was thinking the first mass market EV company. Which you can consider Nissan to be as well.
slivanes 6y ago
Will I get a 30% cut if I sell one on my sale yard?
- loceng 6y ago
  What about the added 30% fee when you charge at non-Apple charging stations?
TylerE 6y ago
I don’t think the Tesla love is going to continueZ Elon is rapidly turning into a toxic personality for (a bit more than) half the country.
- pmontra 6y ago
  Everybody can buy Tesla cars and stock so there is the rest of the world. That's not very up to date with Musk's tweets and political stance, because of the language and cultural barriers. What they see are cool cars and spaceships, so Musk should be cool, right?
  - madamelic 6y ago
    I am pretty on board with socially progressive ideas but Elon is far from 'toxic'. The people who think Elon and his jokes are as bad as JK Rowling are kidding themselves and likely have a few skeletons in their closets themselves. The worst thing he has said recently was a super cryptic meme about people thinking they are better than everyone for having pronouns in their bio. Ouch! That really hurt... /s
double0jimb0 6y ago
While Apple surely has lots of mechanical engineers, Apple doesn’t have the greatest track record of successfully innovating moving components with high lifecycle requirements. Would you be excited to drive a moving vehicle designed by same company that has class-action lawsuits against many of it’s mechanical innovations: butterfly keyboard, failing screen hinges, bending iPhones, etc On second thought, maybe Apple doesn’t actually have great mechanical engineering innovation chops.
claydavisss 6y ago
Apple's brand is too feminine. An Apple car sounds as manly as a VW Golf Convertible. To Tesla's credit, they have maintained a more masculine image. Don't laugh...people see cars as extensions of their own physical presence, a "gay" car won't sell
clomond 6y ago
> 'In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is' With all due respect, I would like to articulate and counter your point with some insights. Tesla as it stands today at ~$600B is priced at monopoly status - that they have 'won' the next decade in transportation and electrification. Whether you buy into that or not, consider the following: - Tesla is the first (and so far only) company that has successfully been able to produce electric vehicles with positive gross margins at scale. No other competitors have scaled (yet) and EVs made from traditional automakers have been sold thus far at negative gross margins (i.e. each one that leaves the lot costs thousands or more dollars at a loss). While Tesla 'just broke out' as a stock in 2020, starting with large cash-flow generation from their factory in China - they have been working at this for well over 5 years. The real challenge for everyone making EVs is scale, and depending on how you slice it, Tesla is - really, really far ahead regarding their head start. (Model 3 was ANNOUNCED in 2016 and first cars were produced and delivered in 2017. Look at this announcement today end of 2020, and car production in 2024 - not even accounting for scale. This is really hard to do.) - Your point about commoditized parts is valid in theory. However, as someone in the {renewables} industry who has had many first hand conversations with those buying Li-ion batteries at scale - the little talked about challenge for everyone else in automotive is 'where are you getting your batteries'? Li-ion cell manufacturers are generally broken up into Tier1, Tier2, Tier3 suppliers. From my conversations even pre-pandemic with folks - Tier 1 supplies were already allocated SEVERAL years out. Tier2 supplies are hard to acquire in large volumes as well. That leaves you with 'shitty' Tier3 supplies for which most of those cells are ending up in things like scooters and Energy Storage (not cars). And while some are good, suppliers can be tier 3 either due to small volumes or unreliability (must all be tested, and even still its questionable how many cycles you'll really get). Automakers want Tier 1. Tesla's latest event, 'Battery Day' while 'disappointing' the street and non-industry folks for not announcing some 'Million mile' or other 'groundbreaking technology' is significant because the limitation to Tesla's growth, much like others for making EVs, comes down to batteries. The factories need to be built - and for most of what optimists imagine for a rapidly changing future, many of those shovels have not hit the ground yet on the forward infrastructure. And that isn't even accounting for the fact that it takes at least 1-2 years to get a single cell factory ramped up. And we aren't even talking about the mining capacity (particularly lithium and nickel) that all of these announcements imply already exists. And back to Tesla's valuation - there is lots of focus on their current valuations assuming they have solved self-driving. There's so much going on with Tesla as a stock (look at Tesla Semi-truck, their Energy Storage businesses for example). And the winks and nods towards launching an uber-like ridesharing service. While I am very skeptical of their ability to have self-driving 'done' in their posted timeframes, I think their value is priced that , whenever it happens - they will be first. So interpret that as you may. When factoring in the likelihood that they will be the next apple for transportation across personal & commercial transportation for the next 1-2 decades, you can end up at 600B easily. If you are interested in seeing how, just on the driving component - Ark Invest has posted their models if you want to take a deeper read to see if you agree. [1] And 2 cents on Apple's role & competitive advantages here: They, prior to Tesla were for a while one of the larger single consumers for Li-ion batteries (Macbook, Ipods, iPhones, etc) in electronics. Add in their expertise with battery management and longevity systems (but for systems of a smaller size) combined with their existing supplier relationships & software capabilities, if I had to bet on Apple or one of the existing automotive companies - I'd probably make my bet on Apple purely from a capabilities and competencies perspective. [1] https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Mode...
meatpuppeting 6y ago
>Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment Was it really? Dozens of companies have credit cards. Walmart, Uber, Paypal, Venmo, Best Buy, Amazon...it didn't real strike me as big things happening when Apple announced their credit card.
- Bud 6y ago
  That's because you don't have the faintest idea of how Apple differentiated their card from the competition.
  - freeone3000 6y ago
    How did apple differentiate their card from the competition? I don't see any reason I should prefer it to my amex.
    - Redoubts 6y ago
      Well, amex is pretty good in features and experience end to end. In comparison, the Uber card was garbage as it's just a badged Barclay Bank card with shitty apps and an awful purchase notification implementation. But usually the rewards are all anyone cares about, and the Apple Card is decidedly mediocre and pell mell here.
      - kingnothing 6y ago
        2% back on all purchases made via contactless is pretty decent for someone who doesn't want to think about which card to use at the restaurant vs pharmacy vs grocery store.
        meatpuppeting 6y ago
        Yeah I mean it seems like a fine card. I guess more what I was getting at originally myself was Apple opening a credit card didn't strike me as big news of bigger things on the horizon. Given dozens of other companies do the exact same thing, some also doing the 2% back everywhere thing. It just seemed like a pretty typical thing large companies do these days.
daniellarusso 6y ago
Tesla has the patents. Every other manufacturer will be licensing Tesla’s IP, IMHO.
- joseph_grobbles 6y ago
  Tesla didn't invent batteries. They didn't invent electric motors. They didn't invent pretty much anything novel. They execute superbly, had a brilliant strategy of starting as a luxury vehicle to be the beachhead for getting an economy of scale, and were risk takers, but lets not pretend they invented the market. They didn't. No doubt they have loads of superficial patents though, but Tesla has an open patent policy and a declaration that they won't sue, so that doesn't seem to matter much. Apple can buy a company like Magna Int with pocket change. Recall that Magna made the "Sony" electric car, bumper to bumper (Sony put in some screens demonstrating a Sony-esque UI), because that's what Magna does -- they're the maker behind a lot of automobiles, either in part or whole. And Magna has loads of patents around the engineering of vehicles because they've been doing it for decades.
- deleted 6y ago
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bitexploder 6y ago
I tell everyone I view Tesla as a software company first and that their tech was a decade ahead of other car makers. I think it will still take another 5-8 years for a traditional automotive manfacturer to get close. Apple, they could do it.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  How do most people respond to this? Politely changing the subject, or just laughing out loud?
  - luk1230 6y ago
    That was cruel :)
- bob33212 6y ago
  Tesla is a Manufacturing company for energy and transportation. It just happens that doing those things well requires you to have 10x better software teams than other companies including older car or even tech companies.
misiti3780 6y ago
Tesla is an electric car company and an energy company, and they are leading both sectors right now. You can say that their market cap should not be greater than Toyota or Ford etc because the number of vehicles they produce is a lot smaller, but the world is going electric (really, renewable) and Tesla is tee-ed up to take large chunks of the solar panel and car markets. They have said they are going to produce a smaller version of a model 3 that costs under 25K USD, which the Europeans will buy in large numbers. They will be the first company to complete FSD also. My opinion doesn't mean anything, but I think in 2030, Elon Musk will be the richest person in the world by an order of magnitude and Tesla will have the largest market cap in the world Disclaimer - long TSLA and drive a model 3
- anupamchugh 6y ago
  But we can’t ignore Apple’s ability to sway people towards their products. Apple fans treat those products like jewellery and Tesla may not be the premium flagship car that it’s aiming to be after a few years
  - misiti3780 6y ago
    That is true for sure, and we will have to wait and see. I know Apple has a lot of money but they also have a lot of catching up to do. Building car companies from scratch is really, really hard.
01100011 6y ago
This comment implicitly rests on the fallacy, learned the hard way by Tesla, that making electric vehicles is just like making any other electronic thing. When is the last time an electronic mfg had to deal with a billion dollar lawsuit because they didn't follow industry best practices for design like Toyota did after the acceleration scandal? Does Apple have experience with the NHTSB or other relevant regulatory agencies? Sure, there is a lot of gatekeeping in the auto industry, but it's for good reason. Cars can and do regularly kill people. It is not the same as making an iPhone.
- nomel 6y ago
  > It is not the same as making an iPhone. They can make phones because they hire/hired experts who can make phones. I doubt they would use those same electrical engineers to design the brake systems. I don't think there's anything evidence to suggest that they couldn't acquire/hire the right talent.
  - 01100011 6y ago
    What will Apple do when the talent they hire tells them their CPUs and software are incompatible with ISO 26262, MISRA, and industry accepted safety and reliability standards? Will Apple accept the timelines they have to adhere to in order to produce a safe vehicle? Will they try to take shortcuts and expose themselves to liability?
    - nomel 6y ago
      > What will Apple do when the talent they hire tells them their CPUs and software are incompatible with ISO 26262, MISRA, and industry accepted safety and reliability standards? I think you have an incredible misunderstanding of the the due diligence/research that these multi trillion dollar, publicly traded, companies go through to estimate costs/risks of their endeavors.
      - 01100011 6y ago
        > 2014 when it first started to design its own vehicle from scratch. At one point, Apple drew back the effort to focus on software and reassessed its goals. Looks like that due diligence wasn't diligent enough. But hey, what do I know? I must have an incredible misunderstanding. How could it be anything else? Personally I don't buy the rumor because I think Apple is smart enough to avoid making their own cars. I think they already learned, by trial and error, that cars are tougher than they look.
starfallg 6y ago
>Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. The user experience of many Apple products is notably substandard. Maps, homepod, keyboard, list goes on. What Apple is good at is integration (both horizontal and vertical) and managing user perception through design.
ClumsyPilot 6y ago
My work-issued mac doesn't turn on outdoors in winter, it overheats and shuts off in direct sunlight in summer. It's software crashes twice a week. The computer turns to garbage in 7 years through obsolesence and general wear. It is irrepearable and components are impossible to obtain because Apple has punitive contract with suppliers. This week assebly line workers are burning down the factory in india because of wage theft. What in the above gives you an impression that the car they build can be trusted with the life of your family? This fetishising of Apple has to stop, making pretty laptops doesn't mean shit when lives are at stake
anm89 6y ago
It's been a long time since Apple had Tesla's current ethos.
mcot2 6y ago
Different take here. I think they should stick to the computer/operating system of a car and either take a large stake in an existing automaker or license the technology to several of them. Actually _making_ cars is doomed to be a failure. You need a massive workforce and very large factories. It is fairly low margin compared to even computer hardware let alone software. Then they have to support these cars which means you need a massive service network. It really is a bad bad idea. Making a car with the likes of Magna is just plain stupid. You can’t get any sort of volume to make the car cheaper and get the OS into the hands of millions of drivers. Here is what they should focus on: 1.) Sensor suite for self driving. 2.) AI computer for self driving. 3.) Main computer and screen(s) for navigation, car controls and games/audio/video apps. 4.) Autonomous software. Work directly with automakers from the ground up and design the vehicles jointly with them to ensure the systems feel native rather than bolted on.
- gls2ro 6y ago
  While I would really like to have in other cars components made by Apple I dont think Apple is a company which sells parts to be integrated by someone else. They like and they are good at having an end to end experience with the enduser. Also I think they and the market (investors) dont want/expect them to be a part of a supply chain.
- fomine3 6y ago
  It's hard to imagine that Apple can take huge amount of profit from B2B parts business. What about to sell e-bike rather than car?
jamesrcole 6y ago
> This is starting to make increasingly more sense even though Apple making a car seemed laughable a few years ago. Which, for what it's worth, is an illustration of how our intuitions about future likelihoods aren't very good. We tend to see as implausible things that are too different from how they are today, overlooking how much things can change in a few years.
DrScientist 6y ago
I think you underestimate some of the existing car makers. Making cars isn't just a question of R&D, it's a question of being able to manufacture at scale and quality. This is something that Telsa have really struggled with - as a result the reliability of Tesla cars isn't as good as it should be. Telsa need to really crack this - but it's not as easy as it seems - that's why certain car brands succeed in petrol era, and others didn't - the ability to make them well is what, in the end, separated companies. Electric cars are fundamentally a lot simpler than try to drive the car forward with a series of controlled explosions - but the key usability challenges are: - charging times - range Progress is being made on both, but if somebody can really crack them, that's the game changer. Electric vehicles aren't new, as a child my milk was delivered from an electric vehicle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_float https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_float

finnh 6y ago

> Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. Also: insane supply-chain management chops, a skill that is more and more transferable - especially for electric cars.

localhost 6y ago
But Apple have outsourced all their manufacturing. That, as we've seen in Tesla's struggles, is a huge component of making a successful product. Agree with the vertical integration aspect + nearly unlimited capital.
- cortesoft 6y ago
  Yeah, that is what modern supply chain management is.... being able to manage a ton of different outsourced suppliers
  - petra 6y ago
    Car manufacturers manage a ton of different outsourced suppliers. Yet still, they manufacture cars on their own.
    - Luc 6y ago
      Not always. You can have Magna Steyr develop and/or assemble cars for you. They’ve done so for a long time, for big brands like BMW and Audi too.
    - ardit33 6y ago
      not all of them... many do outsource lower volume cars (usually luxury) to third parties. "Magna currently holds contracts to produce vehicles for BMW, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota."
      - fomine3 6y ago
        But is there any car manufacturer that fully outsourced manufacturing? It seems that owning factory is important to design cars.
treis 6y ago
I'm not sure I see that. Clearly they are good at making computer like things, but it's not like they're God's gift to supply chain management. There's been quite a few mistakes over the years. Hard to see them doing better than car companies that have been building cars for decades. I'm also not sure what Apple's edge here is. At this point all I really want out of an entertainment center is a screen for my phone to plug into. Everything else is better done as knobs and buttons.
- sneak 6y ago
  > Everything else is better done as knobs and buttons. Apple is quite good at knobs and buttons, and what may eventually become interior finishes.
  - function_seven 6y ago
    When they decide to implement a hardware control, it's usually done well. But their records is hit-and-miss in my opinion. Good: iPod click wheel, iPhone side buttons/switches, old chiclet keyboards, trackpad. Bad: Butterfly keyboards, AppleTV remote is awful (swipes and edge-clicks for all sorts of things), their mice have always been a pain to use (wanna right click? Better lift your left finger completely away from the mouse) But they also aggressively remove physical interfaces where possible. One-button mice, removal of home button on iPhone, removal of function keys on MacBooks, etc. I hope they don't do that with a car. There should be a dozen knobs and buttons that have dedicated features. Not just wipers and signals either. I'm talking about volume control, seat adjustments, windows, etc.
    - daniellarusso 6y ago
      I look forward to steering and shifting gears with a multipoint touchscreen, don’t you?
    - chipotle_coyote 6y ago
      I hadn't thought about this until your comment. While I think Apple building a car is... dubious (both the idea that they would and that they should even if they can), I'd been thinking "well, at least Apple is good at UI," but I really don't like Tesla-esque touchscreen-for-everything auto interfaces, and that would be a serious temptation for Apple.
ajross 6y ago
I don't know that I completely buy that. Shipping/transport and resource management at the scale of automobile production is a rather different world than consumer electronics where literally everything anyone cares about fits on a plain old wooden pallet. Apple does have smart people, and they obviously have a ton of cash. So they absolutely could make a play here. But to imagine that they'll walk in to a market that Tesla has been growing successfully in for a decade and be competitive out of the gate seems like a stretch.
- reitzensteinm 6y ago
  I 100% agree Apple won't walk in and be competitive out the gate. But who in this chain is claiming that? Grandparent specifically listed patience as an Apple virtue, which implies they'll need staying power.
- st1x7 6y ago
  As a company that is running mostly on brand status, Tesla is probably the easiest competitor for Apple to beat in this space. The real competition are the companies that have been building cars for decades.
  - ajross 6y ago
    > As a company that is running mostly on brand status They shipped like half a million cars this year! They own like 70-80% of every EV market they compete in. This is the kind of criticism you'd read about Tesla in 2014. The companies that "have been building cars for decades" are getting stomped by Tesla in this space, 12x more Model 3's were sold than LEAF's in the US last year. At some point the established wisdom among some people that Tesla is failing is going to change, right? The ship has sailed on that, left the harbor, and is half way across the ocean by now. And the weirdest thing here is that it's not an attempt to attack Tesla from the perspective of established auto makers but from Apple Computer, a company with no experience at all in the market and almost nothing to bring to the table but "brand status" (and a freighter full of cash, of course).
    - 6y ago
foxtr0t 6y ago
Despite becoming more similar in recent years, the cell phone supply chain is still very different than the automotive supply chain. The number of parts/unit differs by an order of magnitude and so does the size and weight, not to mention manufacturing techniques and materials. These are capabilities, not so much skills, and they aren't as transferable as you may think. For instance, logistically things are very different in the automotive space. Many, many more people are required to ship a single unit. You also have many more variables that can hold up a production line anywhere in the hierarchy because you rely on more 3rd parties for parts. While these things are also true of consumer electronics, you may rely on a dozen suppliers for an iPhone, car companies often rely on hundreds. Materials are also very different in the automotive space. You have to build with materials that will last 100k miles driving a 80mph in all weather, day/night, freezing/scorching etc etc. It is a very long tail to cover. Apple can do it, but it will take years and many, many partners to get it done.
- natch 6y ago
  The engine of my electric car has one moving part. One. Made in house from raw materials. Rolls of steel, copper, and aluminum. It’s also considered a single part for manufacturing and servicing purposes. So not simply one moving part. One part, period. >The number of parts/unit differs by an order of magnitude >car companies often rely on hundreds of suppliers See above. You must be thinking of ICE cars. >aren’t as transferable as you may think Other than pulling a few things off the shelf like tires, windshields, and wheels (and more; those are just a few examples) the manufacturer of my car stated from scratch. Prodigiously hard for sure but Apple is good at hard. >will last 100k miles Try one million. >will take years Again Apple excels at this. The real problem for Apple is having Tesla as a competitor. They are used to competing with Google, but it’s easy to compete with lame. Tesla is not lame, by a long stretch.
  - foxtr0t 6y ago
    I was waiting for the Muskians to swoop in and spread their nonsense. Guess what? I drive a white model 3 long range AWD and I love it. I'm still 1: an engineer with 10 years of hardware experience and 2: skeptical of every ounce of BS Elon Musk has ever spread. You know how many parts are under the car? Have you taken one apart? They're complicated machines with, again, orders of magnitude more parts than a phone. Forget ICE vehicles, we're just talking about EVs and iPhones. You don't think Tesla relies on thousands of suppliers? Who do you think makes the screens, wiring hardness, cameras, brakes, glass, acoustic devices, steering, battery temp management, motorized seats, etc etc. And who do you think supplies their parts? And theirs? And so on and so forth. Its a complicated web of suppliers and manufacturers, much more so than what goes into a single iPhone (which is still very complicated). This is why a Tesla costs 35k+ and an iPhone costs ~1k. There are more parts that are more complicated and manufacturing them takes more time, effort, and people. Elon may have a magic car printer in his wet dreams but that won't happen in reality for four, five, or six decades. Also, nobody, I repeat, absolutely nobody is holding their breath for you to hit 1m miles in your Tesla. Currently they don't even have a story for repair and so many parts are fused that if something breaks you can't replace it. The car is totaled. I recommend you watch all of the early Rich Rebuilds on YouTube if you really want to understand some of the nitty gritty details of these vehicles. Yes they are simpler than a normal ICE. By an order of magnitude? Certainly not. Progress is made at the margins, in increments of 1% then 5% then 10% then 15%. Not 1000% in one swoop. EDIT: clarification
vkou 6y ago
I don't think you can supply-chain-manage your way into making cars. The hard part of manufacturing automobiles isn't design, it's manufacturing. You can't just pay some third party contractor to spin up a car factory that does 90% of the work for you, like you can with electronics.
jandrese 6y ago
I can just see Apple now, milling the entire body of the car out of a single block of aluminum using a 4 axis C&C machine.
- contingencies 6y ago
  You would typically use five axes for complex parts unless there was a compelling reason not to. Interestingly, as I am buying one at the moment (our first) I had a chance to talk to different machine shops about their different brands here in China. They alleged that foreign dual use export restrictions have resulted in a situation where China's local five axis machines are now both cheaper and more accurate than the available foreign imports (source: major prototyping shop, machine count >20, machine brands 3x, 5 axis count 10+). This was supported by the second shop I visited who also said they will no longer buy imports.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  > single block of aluminum iCar Space gray, chamfered edges, 115 hp, 4 wheels $100,000
  - HPsquared 6y ago
    An alternate reality where Apple makes the Cybertruck.
- cossatot 6y ago
  "a bicycle for the body"
- icanhackit 6y ago
  You're joking but interestingly Tesla at the Battery Day presentation revealed a giant injection mould to make the aluminium chassis for one of their cars, which will simplify the manufacturing process. So we're going into uni-body territory but with a faster, simpler process than milling/printing. If Apple is happy buying thousands of milling machines for laptops and phones, a chassis injection mould might be the process they'd need to break into the car space.
627467 6y ago
I guess a car is similar to a cellphone like a car is similar to a cruise ship...
Supermancho 6y ago
> a skill that is more and more transferable - especially for electric cars. What does that matter? There are Car manufacturers that have basically had infinite capitalization and funding for a decade and the legal system + technology barriers just didn't move. Supply chain was never an issue. Apple's not going to see any different results, so I am puzzled by this optimism.

SkyMarshal 6y ago

>Apple is just about the only company with a similar ethos and enough money and patience to be a viable competitor and have a competitive brand known for quality. Mostly agree, though I suspect a few of the major car companies like Volkswagon/Audi and Toyota/Lexus are capable of this as well. But yes, Apple has the cash reserves to not just manufacture electric cars, but to build out the necessary infrastructure network as well: - charging stations blanketing the country - battery replacement stations for faster "charging" on the fly - local maintenance stations - etc.. Apple could centralize sales to Apple's website, and transform "dealer networks" into "maintenance networks". Sales can be handled in a centralized manner, but maintenance still requires locality. All that requires large upfront CapEx, but Apple is one of the few that has more than enough cash reserves for that.

ethbr0 6y ago
Tesla and Apple have figured out that could is a better stock multiplier than does.
- SkyMarshal 6y ago
  Isn't that how the entire stock market works? Valuations based on net present value of future projected earnings. You just need a story about future earnings that enough of the market will buy into. Both Apple and Tesla have enough track record to credibly tell such a story.
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    Net present value of future projected earnings, adjusted for risk. That last part seems to be missing. Likely because the smart money knows that retail investors + indices = momentum trading on sectors. As there's no ability for anyone to call BS in the way they used to be able to. Or to put it another way: if I'm Toyota, I have a demonstrated ability to build cars profitably. If I'm someone who says I can build as many cars as Toyota, how many pitfalls are there between what I say I can do and actually doing it? Admittedly, corporate conservatism and risk avoidance in leadership is absolutely a thing, but it feels like we're rewarding claims of execution over actual execution.

jariel 6y ago

All of that is true, but cars are huge in terms of complexity, the types of labour/supply chains, distribution, etc. etc.. I guess they are the company to 'try it' but really it's a monster bet. It'd be interesting if they have an 'angle' that allows them to start small, possibly with a specific kind of public transport or closed-system solution for urban transport, with entities like Dubai (i.e. cash flush) buying in big.

ethbr0 6y ago
The angle would be treating it as a new front in the war with Google and Microsoft. Car = game console = phone = laptop Just another platform to own, so that one might control and tax users there-on.
- jariel 6y ago
  That's a point on a strategy slide, not the 'angle' that gives them an entry point into the market. It doesn't make design/manufacture/distribute cars - a massively complex thing - any easier. It's very hard to enter markets against big incumbents, there needs to be some kind of approach. Apple can expect to lose a lot of money for a very long time unless they are doing something tangential.

crb002 6y ago

Apple is no better than Qt in this space - and it will only make electronics - assembly will still be on Ford/GM - Tesla's revolution is a more automated assembly.

sixQuarks 6y ago
Don't know why you're being downvoted. Musk has consistently said their main goal is to become the most advanced manufacturer in the world. Building the machine that builds the machine is what they're aiming for.
- sjwright 6y ago
  Probably because Tesla hasn't had much success in terms of advancement of automated assembly. They went down the same rabbit hole that a few other automakers already explored and discovered what others already did—that high levels of factory automation simply doesn't work. (Yet.) At best, Tesla factories are currently comparable to the state of the art in terms of car factory automation.
  - sixQuarks 6y ago
    You obviously don't follow Tesla very closely. Sandy Munro of Munro associates has literally called Tesla's engineering "mind blowing" and at least 5 years ahead of any other manufacturer. If you are not familiar, Sandy Munro is one of the leading automotive manufacturing experts, if not the top expert. So I'm going to take his word for it rather than yours.
    - sjwright 6y ago
      YOU obviously don't follow Tesla very closely. When the great grandparent said "Tesla's revolution is a more automated assembly", they were flat wrong which is something Elon himself admitted. Tesla tried to go big on automated assembly and failed. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984882630947753984 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984882630947753984 I have watched most all of Sandy's videos; they are orthogonal to assembly automation. The exceptionally impressive things Tesla have done in later revisions of the Model 3/Y (particularly the octovalve and the rear body castings) are related to advanced manufacturing methods which reduce part counts. Not factory automation. Sandy is very good at styling himself as a premier industry expert—and he's quite likely one of the greatest automotive manufacturing experts on YouTube. But I don't think most serious automotive manufacturing experts are spending much time posting on YouTube...

lock-free 6y ago

I have an Apple Card, I'm unsure of what immense capital they're pouring into it with an underlying ethos of user experience.

underseacables 6y ago
Backed by Goldman Sachs, a company that destabilizes whole economies for profit. Apple isn’t exactly hiding which side of the income spectrum they prefer.
- ianai 6y ago
  Right. They surely could have gone with a better institution if they were honestly making the best product for their customers.
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poulsbohemian 6y ago
RE: User experience - best card I’ve ever used. Integrates with my watch and phone in such a way that I don’t even have to pull it out to pay. Can dispute charges with a single text. Easy to see full details of spending and billing. The cash back pays for my monthly Apple One account too.
- rswail 6y ago
  Apple Pay has not very much to do with the Apple card. Apple Pay is a logical extension of contactless, which has been available around the world for years. The world moved to chip&pin at least 5 years ago and moved to contactless for small money amounts (<AUD100 <GBP30) at least 3-4 years ago. Apple & Google's changes for CC are mostly in the tokenization standard, building the backends for issuers. The Apple Card is a US only need, because the US is stuck on chip&sign and Visa/MC have been unable to force the retailers to replace their ancient POS equipment. Plus big retailers don't like not having access to the full PAN of an account and tracking customers.

jrib 6y ago

> they've really thought through the UX of a semi-self driving car Minor side note. I'm sure a lot of the experience is well-designed but I can't help but grimace every time I see that huge touch tablet instead of physical buttons on the dashboard.

zaroth 6y ago
That’s Ok. A lot of people thought keyboards on phones were an absolute requirement too. Like with phones, having touch screen control everything provides extraordinary flexibility in rolling out new software features and ultimately improving UX. Remember this design is supposed to lead the way into an FSD future achieved through purely software updates. Whether they succeed in automating the majority of miles driven, they designed the car with that future fully in mind. For what it’s worth, it’s one of my favorite parts of the car, and certainly it’s my kids favorite part of the car.
- rtx 6y ago
  I have never felt safe using any touch screen while driving.
  - macintux 6y ago
    What you’re missing, though, is that from Tesla’s perspective you shouldn’t be driving while trying to use it. Or much at all. I prefer hardware to software and I’d hate to control my Jeeps with a touchscreen but my Jeeps aren’t driving themselves.
    - deleted 6y ago
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  - bananabreakfast 6y ago
    That's okay, you won't be the one driving soon enough
    - 6y ago

andrewmcwatters 6y ago

> Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment. Apple has had multiple credit cards in the past.

ipsum2 6y ago
I couldn't find anything about this after a brief Google, and the Wikipedia article for Apple Card doesn't say anything about this. Could you provide more information? Edit: found this after more Googling: https://www.cultofmac.com/614988/apple-credit-card-histor/ https://www.cultofmac.com/614988/apple-credit-card-histor/

nolangerner 6y ago

"In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is because the tech behind it is increasingly getting commoditized (though they work hard to stay slightly ahead). But people love Tesla and it's the first choice EV because they've really thought through the UX of a semi-self driving car EV thoroughly". No need to theorize at this point. Plenty have pointed out how overinflated Teslas value is at this point. It's pretty much cult of personality that is propping them up at this point. Tesla is actually very similar to Apple in that they "pioneered" a new market and that has created an identity of leadership in that market. I'm not sure Tesla is going to be able to keep up as the competition continues to grow rapidly.

balls187 6y ago
Have you driven Tesla and other comparable EV's? From my experience, Tesla's tech (I drive a VW) is ahead of their competition pretty handily. The new Ford Mustang Mach looks competitive, but even that is still at least 9 months away. The VW id4 EV is sold out, and they are taking pre-orders for the next batch. Tesla has first mover advantage when it comes to mass market EV's. It's not just cult of personality.
- coliveira 6y ago
  If even Ford is able to deliver something close to Tesla, this is big proof that they don't have anything unique to offer.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  > first mover advantage Did you mean second? There actually can be a lot of advantage to being the second mover. Nissan had already sold 100000 units of the Leaf between 2010-2014, while Tesla had sold up to that point only 16k cars. Clearly, Tesla wasn't the first mass-market EV. Indeed, it seems obvious in hindsight that Tesla's success owed mainly to ignoring the mass market and selling very expensive cars at first.
  - balls187 6y ago
    Yes, that slipped my mind. I was thinking the first mass market EV company. Which you can consider Nissan to be as well.

slivanes 6y ago

Will I get a 30% cut if I sell one on my sale yard?

loceng 6y ago
What about the added 30% fee when you charge at non-Apple charging stations?

TylerE 6y ago

I don’t think the Tesla love is going to continueZ Elon is rapidly turning into a toxic personality for (a bit more than) half the country.

pmontra 6y ago
Everybody can buy Tesla cars and stock so there is the rest of the world. That's not very up to date with Musk's tweets and political stance, because of the language and cultural barriers. What they see are cool cars and spaceships, so Musk should be cool, right?
- madamelic 6y ago
  I am pretty on board with socially progressive ideas but Elon is far from 'toxic'. The people who think Elon and his jokes are as bad as JK Rowling are kidding themselves and likely have a few skeletons in their closets themselves. The worst thing he has said recently was a super cryptic meme about people thinking they are better than everyone for having pronouns in their bio. Ouch! That really hurt... /s

double0jimb0 6y ago

While Apple surely has lots of mechanical engineers, Apple doesn’t have the greatest track record of successfully innovating moving components with high lifecycle requirements. Would you be excited to drive a moving vehicle designed by same company that has class-action lawsuits against many of it’s mechanical innovations: butterfly keyboard, failing screen hinges, bending iPhones, etc On second thought, maybe Apple doesn’t actually have great mechanical engineering innovation chops.

claydavisss 6y ago

Apple's brand is too feminine. An Apple car sounds as manly as a VW Golf Convertible. To Tesla's credit, they have maintained a more masculine image. Don't laugh...people see cars as extensions of their own physical presence, a "gay" car won't sell

clomond 6y ago

> 'In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is' With all due respect, I would like to articulate and counter your point with some insights. Tesla as it stands today at ~$600B is priced at monopoly status - that they have 'won' the next decade in transportation and electrification. Whether you buy into that or not, consider the following: - Tesla is the first (and so far only) company that has successfully been able to produce electric vehicles with positive gross margins at scale. No other competitors have scaled (yet) and EVs made from traditional automakers have been sold thus far at negative gross margins (i.e. each one that leaves the lot costs thousands or more dollars at a loss). While Tesla 'just broke out' as a stock in 2020, starting with large cash-flow generation from their factory in China - they have been working at this for well over 5 years. The real challenge for everyone making EVs is scale, and depending on how you slice it, Tesla is - really, really far ahead regarding their head start. (Model 3 was ANNOUNCED in 2016 and first cars were produced and delivered in 2017. Look at this announcement today end of 2020, and car production in 2024 - not even accounting for scale. This is really hard to do.) - Your point about commoditized parts is valid in theory. However, as someone in the {renewables} industry who has had many first hand conversations with those buying Li-ion batteries at scale - the little talked about challenge for everyone else in automotive is 'where are you getting your batteries'? Li-ion cell manufacturers are generally broken up into Tier1, Tier2, Tier3 suppliers. From my conversations even pre-pandemic with folks - Tier 1 supplies were already allocated SEVERAL years out. Tier2 supplies are hard to acquire in large volumes as well. That leaves you with 'shitty' Tier3 supplies for which most of those cells are ending up in things like scooters and Energy Storage (not cars). And while some are good, suppliers can be tier 3 either due to small volumes or unreliability (must all be tested, and even still its questionable how many cycles you'll really get). Automakers want Tier 1. Tesla's latest event, 'Battery Day' while 'disappointing' the street and non-industry folks for not announcing some 'Million mile' or other 'groundbreaking technology' is significant because the limitation to Tesla's growth, much like others for making EVs, comes down to batteries. The factories need to be built - and for most of what optimists imagine for a rapidly changing future, many of those shovels have not hit the ground yet on the forward infrastructure. And that isn't even accounting for the fact that it takes at least 1-2 years to get a single cell factory ramped up. And we aren't even talking about the mining capacity (particularly lithium and nickel) that all of these announcements imply already exists. And back to Tesla's valuation - there is lots of focus on their current valuations assuming they have solved self-driving. There's so much going on with Tesla as a stock (look at Tesla Semi-truck, their Energy Storage businesses for example). And the winks and nods towards launching an uber-like ridesharing service. While I am very skeptical of their ability to have self-driving 'done' in their posted timeframes, I think their value is priced that , whenever it happens - they will be first. So interpret that as you may. When factoring in the likelihood that they will be the next apple for transportation across personal & commercial transportation for the next 1-2 decades, you can end up at 600B easily. If you are interested in seeing how, just on the driving component - Ark Invest has posted their models if you want to take a deeper read to see if you agree. [1] And 2 cents on Apple's role & competitive advantages here: They, prior to Tesla were for a while one of the larger single consumers for Li-ion batteries (Macbook, Ipods, iPhones, etc) in electronics. Add in their expertise with battery management and longevity systems (but for systems of a smaller size) combined with their existing supplier relationships & software capabilities, if I had to bet on Apple or one of the existing automotive companies - I'd probably make my bet on Apple purely from a capabilities and competencies perspective. [1] https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Mode...

meatpuppeting 6y ago

>Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment Was it really? Dozens of companies have credit cards. Walmart, Uber, Paypal, Venmo, Best Buy, Amazon...it didn't real strike me as big things happening when Apple announced their credit card.

Bud 6y ago
That's because you don't have the faintest idea of how Apple differentiated their card from the competition.
- freeone3000 6y ago
  How did apple differentiate their card from the competition? I don't see any reason I should prefer it to my amex.
  - Redoubts 6y ago
    Well, amex is pretty good in features and experience end to end. In comparison, the Uber card was garbage as it's just a badged Barclay Bank card with shitty apps and an awful purchase notification implementation. But usually the rewards are all anyone cares about, and the Apple Card is decidedly mediocre and pell mell here.
    - kingnothing 6y ago
      2% back on all purchases made via contactless is pretty decent for someone who doesn't want to think about which card to use at the restaurant vs pharmacy vs grocery store.
      - meatpuppeting 6y ago
        Yeah I mean it seems like a fine card. I guess more what I was getting at originally myself was Apple opening a credit card didn't strike me as big news of bigger things on the horizon. Given dozens of other companies do the exact same thing, some also doing the 2% back everywhere thing. It just seemed like a pretty typical thing large companies do these days.

daniellarusso 6y ago

Tesla has the patents. Every other manufacturer will be licensing Tesla’s IP, IMHO.

joseph_grobbles 6y ago
Tesla didn't invent batteries. They didn't invent electric motors. They didn't invent pretty much anything novel. They execute superbly, had a brilliant strategy of starting as a luxury vehicle to be the beachhead for getting an economy of scale, and were risk takers, but lets not pretend they invented the market. They didn't. No doubt they have loads of superficial patents though, but Tesla has an open patent policy and a declaration that they won't sue, so that doesn't seem to matter much. Apple can buy a company like Magna Int with pocket change. Recall that Magna made the "Sony" electric car, bumper to bumper (Sony put in some screens demonstrating a Sony-esque UI), because that's what Magna does -- they're the maker behind a lot of automobiles, either in part or whole. And Magna has loads of patents around the engineering of vehicles because they've been doing it for decades.
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bitexploder 6y ago

I tell everyone I view Tesla as a software company first and that their tech was a decade ahead of other car makers. I think it will still take another 5-8 years for a traditional automotive manfacturer to get close. Apple, they could do it.

jeffbee 6y ago
How do most people respond to this? Politely changing the subject, or just laughing out loud?
- luk1230 6y ago
  That was cruel :)
bob33212 6y ago
Tesla is a Manufacturing company for energy and transportation. It just happens that doing those things well requires you to have 10x better software teams than other companies including older car or even tech companies.

misiti3780 6y ago

Tesla is an electric car company and an energy company, and they are leading both sectors right now. You can say that their market cap should not be greater than Toyota or Ford etc because the number of vehicles they produce is a lot smaller, but the world is going electric (really, renewable) and Tesla is tee-ed up to take large chunks of the solar panel and car markets. They have said they are going to produce a smaller version of a model 3 that costs under 25K USD, which the Europeans will buy in large numbers. They will be the first company to complete FSD also. My opinion doesn't mean anything, but I think in 2030, Elon Musk will be the richest person in the world by an order of magnitude and Tesla will have the largest market cap in the world Disclaimer - long TSLA and drive a model 3

anupamchugh 6y ago
But we can’t ignore Apple’s ability to sway people towards their products. Apple fans treat those products like jewellery and Tesla may not be the premium flagship car that it’s aiming to be after a few years
- misiti3780 6y ago
  That is true for sure, and we will have to wait and see. I know Apple has a lot of money but they also have a lot of catching up to do. Building car companies from scratch is really, really hard.

01100011 6y ago

This comment implicitly rests on the fallacy, learned the hard way by Tesla, that making electric vehicles is just like making any other electronic thing. When is the last time an electronic mfg had to deal with a billion dollar lawsuit because they didn't follow industry best practices for design like Toyota did after the acceleration scandal? Does Apple have experience with the NHTSB or other relevant regulatory agencies? Sure, there is a lot of gatekeeping in the auto industry, but it's for good reason. Cars can and do regularly kill people. It is not the same as making an iPhone.

nomel 6y ago
> It is not the same as making an iPhone. They can make phones because they hire/hired experts who can make phones. I doubt they would use those same electrical engineers to design the brake systems. I don't think there's anything evidence to suggest that they couldn't acquire/hire the right talent.
- 01100011 6y ago
  What will Apple do when the talent they hire tells them their CPUs and software are incompatible with ISO 26262, MISRA, and industry accepted safety and reliability standards? Will Apple accept the timelines they have to adhere to in order to produce a safe vehicle? Will they try to take shortcuts and expose themselves to liability?
  - nomel 6y ago
    > What will Apple do when the talent they hire tells them their CPUs and software are incompatible with ISO 26262, MISRA, and industry accepted safety and reliability standards? I think you have an incredible misunderstanding of the the due diligence/research that these multi trillion dollar, publicly traded, companies go through to estimate costs/risks of their endeavors.
    - 01100011 6y ago
      > 2014 when it first started to design its own vehicle from scratch. At one point, Apple drew back the effort to focus on software and reassessed its goals. Looks like that due diligence wasn't diligent enough. But hey, what do I know? I must have an incredible misunderstanding. How could it be anything else? Personally I don't buy the rumor because I think Apple is smart enough to avoid making their own cars. I think they already learned, by trial and error, that cars are tougher than they look.

starfallg 6y ago

>Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. The user experience of many Apple products is notably substandard. Maps, homepod, keyboard, list goes on. What Apple is good at is integration (both horizontal and vertical) and managing user perception through design.

ClumsyPilot 6y ago

My work-issued mac doesn't turn on outdoors in winter, it overheats and shuts off in direct sunlight in summer. It's software crashes twice a week. The computer turns to garbage in 7 years through obsolesence and general wear. It is irrepearable and components are impossible to obtain because Apple has punitive contract with suppliers. This week assebly line workers are burning down the factory in india because of wage theft. What in the above gives you an impression that the car they build can be trusted with the life of your family? This fetishising of Apple has to stop, making pretty laptops doesn't mean shit when lives are at stake

anm89 6y ago

It's been a long time since Apple had Tesla's current ethos.

mcot2 6y ago

Different take here. I think they should stick to the computer/operating system of a car and either take a large stake in an existing automaker or license the technology to several of them. Actually _making_ cars is doomed to be a failure. You need a massive workforce and very large factories. It is fairly low margin compared to even computer hardware let alone software. Then they have to support these cars which means you need a massive service network. It really is a bad bad idea. Making a car with the likes of Magna is just plain stupid. You can’t get any sort of volume to make the car cheaper and get the OS into the hands of millions of drivers. Here is what they should focus on: 1.) Sensor suite for self driving. 2.) AI computer for self driving. 3.) Main computer and screen(s) for navigation, car controls and games/audio/video apps. 4.) Autonomous software. Work directly with automakers from the ground up and design the vehicles jointly with them to ensure the systems feel native rather than bolted on.

gls2ro 6y ago
While I would really like to have in other cars components made by Apple I dont think Apple is a company which sells parts to be integrated by someone else. They like and they are good at having an end to end experience with the enduser. Also I think they and the market (investors) dont want/expect them to be a part of a supply chain.
fomine3 6y ago
It's hard to imagine that Apple can take huge amount of profit from B2B parts business. What about to sell e-bike rather than car?

jamesrcole 6y ago

> This is starting to make increasingly more sense even though Apple making a car seemed laughable a few years ago. Which, for what it's worth, is an illustration of how our intuitions about future likelihoods aren't very good. We tend to see as implausible things that are too different from how they are today, overlooking how much things can change in a few years.

DrScientist 6y ago

I think you underestimate some of the existing car makers. Making cars isn't just a question of R&D, it's a question of being able to manufacture at scale and quality. This is something that Telsa have really struggled with - as a result the reliability of Tesla cars isn't as good as it should be. Telsa need to really crack this - but it's not as easy as it seems - that's why certain car brands succeed in petrol era, and others didn't - the ability to make them well is what, in the end, separated companies. Electric cars are fundamentally a lot simpler than try to drive the car forward with a series of controlled explosions - but the key usability challenges are: - charging times - range Progress is being made on both, but if somebody can really crack them, that's the game changer. Electric vehicles aren't new, as a child my milk was delivered from an electric vehicle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_float https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_float