11 ms·

The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of handling the crisis

45 points by sampo 6y ago

Devils-Avocado 6y ago
Little excess mortality seen this week in Europe: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country Deaths in Sweden tracking 2.4% higher than 2018, and even then explained by very low deaths in 2019 due to weak flu seasons: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-... Our mess is listening to frauds like Neil Ferguson from the Imperial College who have a track record of consistently over-estimating deaths from each new pathogen. The West is aging and each flu season will have greater mortality spikes. COVID at best is a once-a-decade unusually strong flu variant which we have severely overreacted to - probably spurred on by Chinese propaganda and their fake reporting.
- yomly 6y ago
  I don't really agree with your stance but I see you've been downvoted and so I have upvoted you. I don't think your viewpoint should be censored by being downvoted into deletion as I am seeing your opinion mirrored by friends who are intelligent and well-read on the subject. One friend is in fact a physician who was on the front-line saving elderly patients ill with covid, and they still believe that the socioeconomic costs to our future generation is too great and lockdowns too blunt a tool to protect hospital capacity. So I'd rather people (re-establish) the arguments against your point for reasons of posterity rather than simply censor you as I am seeing similar polarisation of views over covid as I have over other important discussions of the recent years. I am not an expert in this field so don't really have any primary sources to add, though I personally know people who died and nearly died untimely from this disease.
  - jpgvm 6y ago
    I agree with your sentiment. Simply censoring out arguments that aren't stated offsensively is not how healthy discourse works. That said I happen to disagree with his conclusion. As can be seen from SARS, MERS and now again SARS-CoV-2 swift action by Asian nations has been effective multiple pandemics in a row. On the other hand Ebola, Zika and SARS-CoV-2 in African, South American and Western nations has exemplified what can happen if you react too slowly and without enough force. (worth mentioning African nations mostly learnt their lesson here and used the systems developed to combat Ebola to shut down Covid19 fairly rapidly). As a resident of Thailand I am probably somewhat biased but I see the lockdowns having been very effective here which allowed us to mostly return to daily life after only 4-6 weeks of extreme lockdown. This also follows for Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and even China after they were able to get everything under control. Arguing against something that clearly works and has allowed these nations to reignite their economic engines without fear of health system collapse seems disingenuous to say the least.
    - graeme 6y ago
      OP’s view is indeed rather unusual and insular, and depends on ignoring the Asian and African experience. The West reacted slowly, too heavily (closing parks?), and then declared victory too quickly, and spent little time over the summer preparing any systems to actually beat the virus. I live in one of the few western areas that did beat the virus (the atlantic bubble of canada) and life is much more pleasant than elsewhere. It just took about six weeks more restrictions, and actually aiming at winning. Most of the west adopted a “just prevent the hospitals from collapsing” goal, which is a stupid goal if your only tool to do so is heavy handed lockdowns. You’re guaranteed to have yo-yo lockdowns. The only coherent strategies are developing an effective test/trace/isolate system or local elimination. The west doesn’t seem institutionally capable of the former.
- vkou 6y ago
  With everyone who can staying at home, people not dying in car accidents, or getting the flu, you would expect there to be a vastly reduced rate of mortality. Instead, there's a moderate increase, despite us taking drastic preventative measures. Lift the measures, and mortality will skyrocket. ... Meanwhile, in parts of Asia, the lockdowns have lifted months ago, and life is back to normal. That's what happens when your government takes this disease seriously, instead of half-assing it's response to the epidemic.
- fxtentacle 6y ago
  I believe that Germany is seeing so little excess mortality exactly because they did an acceptable job with their lockdown. Italy and France are seeing excess mortality.
- HoverSausage 6y ago
  During the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak in the UK, it wasn't a small percentage increase of deaths, the number of deaths DOUBLED.
  - arethuza 6y ago
    The graph from the Office of National Statistics makes that very clear: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19in10charts/2020-09-24 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...
- cygx 6y ago
  To add another data point: From Mar-Aug,the number of deaths in New York exceeded the expectation by 65%. The US total from Mar-Jul was 20% higher than expected. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761
- invalidusernam3 6y ago
  Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: [1] World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 To date, 1.2 million people have died from covid [2]. The year isn't finished, and for the first 3 months the spread of covid was only starting. Currently, around 5k to 7k people die per day from covid, and that number is expected to go up since the daily new cases are increasing (from around 300k per day end of September, to around 450k per day end of October) Comparing it to an unusually strong flu variant is drastically underplaying the severity. All of these numbers are despite international lockdowns and efforts to stop the spread. The numbers would be far, far higher if no measures had been taken. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
- yvdriess 6y ago
  Can you clarify the point you are trying to make, because at the moment I can only interpret your post as: "It's all overblown, these measures are not necessary".
- simiones 6y ago
  Stop spreading this drivel. Covid is well on the way to causing as many deaths in 1 year worldwide as TB; it's already killed three times as many people as malaria; comparing it to the flu is laughable. And all of these deaths and infection numbers are low because we have reacted - not strongly enough - much more than we do to a flu. If we had taken the usual flu measures, the deaths would skyrocket from overwhelmed hospitals, as has been seen in early unprepared regions (such as the Bergamo region in Italy).
- alexmingoia 6y ago
  The article is about how the west didn’t take it seriously enough, early enough — not that they overreacted. Sweden (and most of the EU and US) has done terribly compared with China, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan measured in deaths per million. These countries took a proactive, serious approach and have successfully prevented widespread local transmission. China has done an amazing job at preventing the spread of coronavirus, considering its huge population, long borders, and volume of international trade.
  - acdha 6y ago
    … and, yes, China has used measures which are much easier in an authoritarian police state as part of that response. That puts the onus on those of us who disagree with that on working to have our countries be more like South Korea, Taiwan, NZ, etc. since the Chinese government has not hesitated to point to the differences as proof that their system is superior.
- ralfn 6y ago
  >probably spurred on by Chinese propaganda and their fake reporting. What the hell are you talking about? What propaganda or fake reporting? China initially denied there even was a virus or that it was dangerous. Just like Europe. Just like the US. What kind of weird conspiracy websites are you getting this information from and how did you end on this site? Don't those places have comment sections too where you can discuss with like minded people that are also shopping for confirmation basis data points for their xenophobia. China has a very scary government but that's no reason to for us here to just make shit up. It actually dilutes from the real risks and criticisms.
  - sumedh 6y ago
    > China has a very scary government but that's no reason to for us here to just make shit up. China can open their firewall and let their citizens speak freely if they have nothing to hide.
    - vkou 6y ago
      China has an extensive diaspora of people who stay in regular touch with relatives back home. You'd know this, if you actually spoke to any Chinese immigrants. This diaspora knew about how serious COVID was back in January. If they had millions of people secretly falling sick today, this diaspora would have heard about it. It hasn't, and they don't. For all intents and purposes, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and yes, China have brought the virus under control, while we are faffing about with millions sick.
      - sumedh 6y ago
        I dont understand why you are defending the Chinese regime? > This diaspora knew about how serious COVID was back in January. I know because lot of them were buying masks and other PPE from Australia and sending it to China. Too bad they did not care about their host country. Not sure why you are talking about South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam they are much more open than China.
        6y ago
- singemonkey 6y ago
  > COVID at best is a once-a-decade unusually strong flu variant which we have severely overreacted to - probably spurred on by Chinese propaganda and their fake reporting. dang, why are you allowing this kind of shit on here? Please step up and sort this out.
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    > dang, why are you allowing this kind of shit on here? Please step up and sort this out. You're the one who's wrong: SARS-1 2003 MERS 2012 COVID-19 2019 Mortality for under 30: 0.05% Mortality for 30-50: 0.1% And nobody believes any reports from China or the WHO.
    - gscott 6y ago
      So true. Saying China did a good job is like saying the USA should suspend the Constitution and do the same thing: Wuhan death fog https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098 https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-dea... Wuhan protests: Incinerator plan sparks mass unrest https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48904350 https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48904350 Chinese woman describes Wuhan virus patients being burned alive https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683 Video shows interior of new Wuhan 'hospital' resembles prison https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3870468 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3870468 You Can Now Go to Jail in China for Criticizing Beijing’s Coronavirus Response https://nypost.com/2020/01/30/chinese-residents-face-jail-if-they-slam-countrys-coronavirus-response/ https://nypost.com/2020/01/30/chinese-residents-face-jail-if... Video appears to show people in China forcibly taken for quarantine over coronavirus https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people-china-forcibly-taken-quarantine-over-coronavirus-n1133096 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people... "They treat us like we're the virus": Africans evicted from housing in Chinese city https://observers.france24.com/en/20200413-coronavirus-nigerians-evicted-housing-chinese-city https://observers.france24.com/en/20200413-coronavirus-niger...
      - mytailorisrich 6y ago
- Kiro 6y ago
  I don't agree with your conclusion but Neil Ferguson has indeed been wrong. His model predicted 85,000 deaths in Sweden by now. I don't understand why the Imperial models are still taken seriously.
  - singemonkey 6y ago
    Please stop parroting this kind of misinformation.
  - acdha 6y ago
    This is a popular right-wing trope but I’ve never seen a source despite the reports being available and the full model being on GitHub. Can you provide a citation for that exact claim? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model
    - Kiro 6y ago
      In Sweden it's a left-wing trope (the right wants lockdown and masks while the left supports the lax approach so the model has mostly received criticism from the left) and I believed it but you're completely right, so I apologize: https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/1307760615545606145 https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/13077606155456061... > Thanks for confirming: Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model did not point to 85,000 Covid deaths for Sweden; another researcher did. A mean time-varying reproduction number Rt estimate in March is not a prediction of deaths nor is it a model for predicting them.
      - acdha 6y ago
        Ah, I should have been more specific that I only follow this in the English-language media so I’ve seen it newspapers in the UK or Australia (the US discourse doesn’t mention this much).
empiko 6y ago
It is exponentially harder to contain the virus on continent with hundreds of millions of people with dozens of countries than to contain it on islands with one centralized government. It is not only Europe and USA, but also India, South America, Middle East, Russia, etc that fail at it for the same reason. The only continental country that managed to control the virus is China, but they can do it mainly because they have no problem banning immigration (which is not feasible for EU countries for example) and because they can use the centralized government to make decisions that would not fly elsewhere. Effectively, China can function as a really big island.
- Traster 6y ago
  The article does a terrible job at addressing nuance. Take Australia - a country the size of Europe with a population of 25m, and Europe - a continent the size of Australia with a population of 750m. Clearly we can compare these like for like and whine about "culture".
  - viraptor 6y ago
    And yet more nuance - the density of major cities in both Europe and Australia are reasonably comparable, so concentrating on those rather than towns / rural / empty areas does provide some information. Sure, the environment will be slightly different and local travel changes things. But most Londoners and most Melbournians don't move that much. (Try to invite someone to zone 5) They'll have mostly-local interactions and similar social activity circles.
  - friendlybus 6y ago
    Australia was setup for this kind of incident either way with strict quarantine rules for decades on natural goods & animals brought into the country. The local wildlife had suffered from invasive species. It was not a hard act to shut it all down. The structure of the schengen area and the differing population densities is an entirely different beast, I agree.
  - cam_l 6y ago
    >a country the size of Europe with a population of 25m You must not have spent much time here. Most Australians live in a narrow band stretched along the south east coast. Victoria, which has just come out of a 4 month lockdown, has nearly 7m residents in about 240 thousand sq km. Slightly smaller, but on par with Sweden. Like Sweden, two thirds of the state is virtually empty. Though in Victoria, we have a much more dense urban centre. The rest of Australia is similar, very small, dense urban centre with vast tracks of unoccupied land. Yes, we can compare these if we are careful about the similarities and differences. Our populated areas have similar densities as various population centres across Europe. Our cities have been cut off from regional areas, and our states closed off from each other, which seems like maybe a bigger deal than if European states closed off from each other. Maybe nuance is hard when you have a point to make.
secondcoming 6y ago
Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. What will Aus/NZ do then? Pandemic-fatigue is a real thing, both will always be at risk from a nutter not self-isolating properly when they return from abroad. Everyone's strategy is to wait for a vaccine.
- accurrent 6y ago
  Aus/NZ can continue trade with the East Asian nations I guess? Many East Asian nations have brought this under control through strict lockdown. Of course some things that are missing from the argument are the fact that many East Asian nations that have controlled the virus have extremely well organized governments which are able to deliver stimulus where needed. For myself living in Singapore, the government has been fairly generous with economic stimulus.
- Zenst 6y ago
  >Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. That will be the case, unsure there will be a vaccine that will give you a lifetime immunity (hopeful but I have serious doubts upon that myself the more I learn about this area). More likely to be like the flu vaccine, changes each year or requires a yearly booster perhaps. More case of managing the sick numbers that need treatment in hospitals and capacity planning, over time - natural immunity, vaccines will provide that level of throttling as we get with the flu. Though supply/demand does play out in many forms and gradually gets to a balance that is manageable, we are just at the stage of the initial rush and year or two on, things will start to become more settled. Though that pattern plays out in many forms in life and is a supply/demand with the supply being hospital/care capacity and demand being the virus nobody wants. Hopefully more focus upon health armies over the conventional armies will arise. Certainly I'd not rule out countries doing health work conscription of some form in years to come - even just to educate people about basics and more so - better prepared for such events/disasters - which happen more than war.
- graeme 6y ago
  So for australia/nz to have trouble, as you suggested: 1. The traveller must be infected (sub 5% odds) 2. They must decide to break isolation (most people are honest) 3. They must actively be infectious at the time they do (most people infect zero people. The household attack rate is 17%!) 4. They have to go someplace where they can infect many (e.g. a bar rather than breaking isolation for a park or groceries or family) 5. The govt must be slow to react once cases are detected NZ has had outbreaks but reverted to normal. As you say, everyone is waiting for a vaccine. Seems infinitely preferable to wait in NZ rather than in France or UK which just locked down again. You’re functionally quite free in australia and NZ.
Traster 6y ago
Frankly, this article doesn't seem to bring anything new to the table and seems to just couch the author's pre-conceptions in massively over-arching generalizations about "The West". There have been huge differences in policy, govenrment response and death rate across Europe. But instaed they all get lumped into one and then scolded for attitudes that frankly seem to only describe one particular part of America's atittudes.
fxtentacle 6y ago
Slightly OT, but I've wondered about this for a while: Opponents of lockdowns usually claim that the economic damage will outweigh the humanity gained. But for me personally, I'm pretty sure that attending 1 funeral per month will damage my productivity much more strongly than work from home, wearing masks while shopping, and ordering delivery instead of going to the restaurant in person. What am I missing? Are people in New York so used to seeing dead bodies by now that it doesn't bother them anymore?
- odshoifsdhfs 6y ago
  Because while you can work from home and have a paycheck, thousands (millions?) of small businesses are closing and the people rely on those to make their money. I could endure a lockdown for years (heck, I've worked remotely for 10), but my friends that own a restaurant? Screwed! My coach that needs the athletes to practise? Screwed! Friend's mother that sells her vegetables in farmers markets? Screwed! etc etc And with these closing, less money all around, other businesses end up following suit, even if they aren't directly affected, they will be down the line.
  - fxtentacle 6y ago
    If I remember correctly, Germany spent 550 billion on the 2008 banking crisis. There's roughly 80 million citizens. So the government could - at the same cost - pay every citizen €2300 = $2700 per month for 3 months to cover the complete loss of income caused by a super-strict lock-down. Why is that not an option?
    - odshoifsdhfs 6y ago
      I don't know, ask them. I'm not defending government's actions here. I'm just showing what the 'angry people against lockdown' are feeling. In Portugal the societal help was full of limitations (if you were self employed but made even 50 euros that month, you would get no help, but if you made nothing, you would get around 500, smart no? - it was later changed) and cuts but somehow we found 1.7 billion to save an already unprofitable and bankrupted airline which seems that will still need 100 million per month from government not to close.
unnouinceput 6y ago
Quote 1: "... tank their economies to an extent that may affect the global balance of power for our lifetimes" Quote 2: "It is we, the virus-riddled Westerners, who will be isolated indefinitely" Wooow there lady, let's wait for vaccine that would be rolling out in a few months, maximum a year, before spilling Apocalypse and FUD all over the place. Yeah, I agree, West fucked up, but I bet it will also rebound within maximum 5 years.
- makomk 6y ago
  What makes this especially propaganda-riffic is that it's not just the West that's "virus-riddled", it's also Africa, India, the Middle East... in fact, basically everywhere except the countries listed in the articles as having succeeded (and maybe not some of those - I wouldn't trust the reporting out of China or Vietnam one bit at this point). Those countries are basically going to have to isolate themselves from not just the West, but the entire rest of the planet indefinitely if no really effective vaccine appears.
  - yomly 6y ago
    I find it curious that people are so skeptical of China and Vietnam's numbers. A government might be able to hide some percentage points, or even an order of magnitude of the spread. But hiding more than that is pretty impossible in this modern day age. Especially a place like China with high internet penetration, proximity to Hong Kong and a population of overseas relatives in the millions. People may recall the Chinese citizens risking their lives to leak in the ground footage onto YouTube - I can't imagine that would stop if things were bad in China. So 0 cases might be 10 or even 100. But it's hardly going to be 10000 or 10000000. It also shows a huge ignorance towards cultural attitudes towards both authority and contagion. I know plenty of Chinese people who sheltered long before governments told them to due to covid. They were prepared to cancel Chinese New Year rather than whine about the poor sadness of missing Christmas. And when the government issued orders plenty were willing to listen and trust the authorities. Yes the Chinese people are not infallible: people went to hotpot and whistleblowers were wrongly imprisoned. People also protested in Wuhan. But man seriously we like to scorn communist countries for having their propaganda but if you are comfortable preaching "their numbers are fake" you're buying into the western rhetoric that China can't have been better than us. In any case if it is so hard to imagine China and Vietnam achieving containment of the virus maybe some friendlier examples include our friends in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan.
BlueTemplar 6y ago
Not to mention that there's now a scientific and medical consensus about how a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (and zinc) is effective at preventing the virus from gaining foothold in the body when the first symptoms appear – but many of the governments and so-called "medical authorities" are in complete denial of this. EDIT : and the GAFAMs (& Twitter) have been complicit of this censorship in preventing the doctors (= experimental scientists) from discussing their work on their platforms.
- disgruntledphd2 6y ago
  Please provide peer-reviewed evidence for this claim. It's pretty extraordinary, and you are essentially saying that the medical profession are engaged in a vast conspiracy to prevent lives being saved, which does not pass the sniff test (for me, at least).
  - mlthoughts2018 6y ago
    It’s better to do one of these: (a) downvote and move on, the parent comment has a lot of hallmarks of not engaging in good faith discussion. (b) steelman their argument, improve it for them and see what conclusions are or further predictions it would indicate (c) look for evidence that confirms it first. Saying something like, “I tried to research your claim but I only found FOO, which does not include any reputable or credible sources. Meanwhile, reputable sources like BAR have said <whatever>,” is much gentler and diplomatic as well as adding new information for other participants. Other people will see the comment and realize it has no supporting argument. Any rebutting comment that only says “citation needed, your claims are extreme” isn’t helpful no matter how obviously poor quality the original comment was.
    - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
      My prior on this is that it's probably incorrect. However, it's possible that I am wrong, and the OP may provide sources that change my mind. The most likely outcome is no reply, but that suits me fine as reasonable observers will conclude that there isn't any evidence.
manishsharan 6y ago
You can't have a lock down without universal basic income. You can't force some families into poverty to protect some other families without suitable economic compensation.
- Zenst 6y ago
  Certainly the whole aspect of UBI would of been better for all in these times and hopefully some review of that will happen. In the UK we have Universal Credit - a means tested benefit system that is halfway-house towards UBI in some ways. https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit
- mlthoughts2018 6y ago
  This is why an exceptional situation like a pandemic lockdown warrants a massive stimulus package in Congress - so that wages can still be paid to people the government must unfortunately prevent from working. It paints an unfortunately one-sided picture in the US at least - there is just no arguing that the economic suffering and inflaming regular people to become wrongly anti-lockdown is the fault of Congressional Republicans and the president for not urgently passing additional very large stimulus and relief packages.
- viraptor 6y ago
  Melbourne did just that. Could it be done better? Sure. Can it be done without ubi? Definitely.
  - sumedh 6y ago
    > Can it be done without ubi? Definitely Melbourne(and Australia) had Jobkeeper and JobSeeker payments.
    - viraptor 6y ago
      Every country has some specific social support system. I was commenting specifically about the ubi which just doesn't exist at large.
s9w 6y ago
Situation in Germany: - slightly less deaths than normal [0]. - Less ICU patients than normal ([1] vs [2]) - stagnant (and normal) amount of people with respiratory illnesses [3] The only thing unusual at all is the PCR tests. [0]: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Corona/_Grafik/_Interaktiv/woechentliche-sterbefallzahlen-jahre.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Corona/_Grafik... [1]: http://s9w.io/intensivregister-10-31.png http://s9w.io/intensivregister-10-31.png [2]: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/880182/umfrage/auslastung-der-intensivstationen-in-deutschen-krankenhaeusern-nach-groessenklasse/ https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/880182/umfrag... [3]: https://imgur.com/qYed6rF https://imgur.com/qYed6rF
the5avage 6y ago
My father is currently connected to a ICU because of corona virus. It makes me sick to see how many people are not able to wear their mask over their nose. I live in Germany btw. So I agree 100% with the article. It's completely unacceptable that we are not able to control or enforce such basic things...
- Semaphor 6y ago
  > It makes me sick to see how many people are not able to wear their mask over their nose. It’s weird, because I have seen exactly one person who didn’t wear one in a store since you had to in March. A few more since the outdoor inner city mask mandate started last week, but still a tiny, tiny minority. I have heard it’s worse in public transport, but at least in the inner city of Lübeck, compliance is absolutely amazing.
  - the5avage 6y ago
    Maybe people in the north are more social ;) I live in Berlin and there it works because every store has a security and you will not be able to enter without mask. Right now I am in Baden-Württemberg and there the customers all wear masks but the employees of stores themself violate the rules. Very strange...
roenxi 6y ago
The pandemic isn't over. It remains too early to talk about what succeeded or failed. Speaking from Australia, it is unclear that our policy of isolation is sustainable. The lack of migration is going to have slowrolling and serious economic blowback. We really don't know what this sort of crisis will precipitate. It isn't unthinkable that the shockwaves from COVID, in the form of wars and political action driven by economic instability, take down entire government systems. It is still far to early to work out who has failed and who hasn't. The fog of uncertainty isn't going to lift before 2023. It takes time to catalogue and report back on what is actually happening.
- jerome-jh 6y ago
  I agree and I'd add that EU has not failed yet. It has not given up the fight as the US did. Certainly we have been far too loose during September and October. But at his moment all of the EU countries are striving to provide care for everyone in need, which implies remaining below hospitals saturation threshold.
  - im3w1l 6y ago
    Why not match capacity to cases rather than match cases to capacity? They have had 6 months now to increase capacity but it seems they aren't even trying.
    - jerome-jh 6y ago
      Sure they did very little effort in that area. But you have to consider that saturation is reached eventually, so long R0 is > 1. Current trajectory for France is a doubling of cases every 3 weeks. Assuming a huge capacity increase of 50%, that would afford a 12 days delay.
      - im3w1l 6y ago
        Factor 1.5 more capacity means 1/1.5 time of flattening the curve.
zby 6y ago
It is funny how the West was not authoritarian enough for any top down effective action - but proved to be authoritarian enough to prevent us from buying antigen tests (https://zby.medium.com/it-is-9-months-now-why-we-have-no-mass-testing-for-sars-cov-2-yet-27b5f409c7d2 https://zby.medium.com/it-is-9-months-now-why-we-have-no-mas...) and build our own bottom up response. What is left for us is buying the antigen tests on black market and building our 'safe bubbles': https://zby.medium.com/safe-bubbles-5bf43b09f7c5 https://zby.medium.com/safe-bubbles-5bf43b09f7c5
- sampo 6y ago
  Slovakia just antigen-tested half of their population this past weekend. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-...
  - zby 6y ago
    Yes - I watch it closely! I hope it will be a success - and then everybody will copy it :) The cost is really minimal. But in the meantime - black or grey market. It used to be possible to buy the tests from online pharmacies - but now I hear from my friends that they start checking if you really are a medical professional.
  - zby 6y ago
    There are some caveats though - it seems that they have 1% of positive tests - but I cannot find any information if the try to confirm the positives with another test (PCR ideally). The specs on the test quotes 0.3% of false positives - this too close to that 1% of total positives.
Seb-C 6y ago
French living in Japan here. From what I have seen on both sides, I think the main difference is that most Asian people have a culture of group thinking and common interest, while most western people behave selfishly. I also noticed that western people relies only on the governments rather that the collective and individual actions they can do. It is clear to me even by reading this page. Everything is about what the governments did or did not, failed or succeeded. The virus does not care about politics, it is transmitted from one person to another, so the individual persons have the responsibility to do something. The governments does not have the power to stop a pandemic.

45 points by sampo 6y ago

Little excess mortality seen this week in Europe: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country Deaths in Sweden tracking 2.4% higher than 2018, and even then explained by very low deaths in 2019 due to weak flu seasons: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-... Our mess is listening to frauds like Neil Ferguson from the Imperial College who have a track record of consistently over-estimating deaths from each new pathogen. The West is aging and each flu season will have greater mortality spikes. COVID at best is a once-a-decade unusually strong flu variant which we have severely overreacted to - probably spurred on by Chinese propaganda and their fake reporting.

yomly 6y ago
I don't really agree with your stance but I see you've been downvoted and so I have upvoted you. I don't think your viewpoint should be censored by being downvoted into deletion as I am seeing your opinion mirrored by friends who are intelligent and well-read on the subject. One friend is in fact a physician who was on the front-line saving elderly patients ill with covid, and they still believe that the socioeconomic costs to our future generation is too great and lockdowns too blunt a tool to protect hospital capacity. So I'd rather people (re-establish) the arguments against your point for reasons of posterity rather than simply censor you as I am seeing similar polarisation of views over covid as I have over other important discussions of the recent years. I am not an expert in this field so don't really have any primary sources to add, though I personally know people who died and nearly died untimely from this disease.
- jpgvm 6y ago
  I agree with your sentiment. Simply censoring out arguments that aren't stated offsensively is not how healthy discourse works. That said I happen to disagree with his conclusion. As can be seen from SARS, MERS and now again SARS-CoV-2 swift action by Asian nations has been effective multiple pandemics in a row. On the other hand Ebola, Zika and SARS-CoV-2 in African, South American and Western nations has exemplified what can happen if you react too slowly and without enough force. (worth mentioning African nations mostly learnt their lesson here and used the systems developed to combat Ebola to shut down Covid19 fairly rapidly). As a resident of Thailand I am probably somewhat biased but I see the lockdowns having been very effective here which allowed us to mostly return to daily life after only 4-6 weeks of extreme lockdown. This also follows for Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and even China after they were able to get everything under control. Arguing against something that clearly works and has allowed these nations to reignite their economic engines without fear of health system collapse seems disingenuous to say the least.
  - graeme 6y ago
    OP’s view is indeed rather unusual and insular, and depends on ignoring the Asian and African experience. The West reacted slowly, too heavily (closing parks?), and then declared victory too quickly, and spent little time over the summer preparing any systems to actually beat the virus. I live in one of the few western areas that did beat the virus (the atlantic bubble of canada) and life is much more pleasant than elsewhere. It just took about six weeks more restrictions, and actually aiming at winning. Most of the west adopted a “just prevent the hospitals from collapsing” goal, which is a stupid goal if your only tool to do so is heavy handed lockdowns. You’re guaranteed to have yo-yo lockdowns. The only coherent strategies are developing an effective test/trace/isolate system or local elimination. The west doesn’t seem institutionally capable of the former.
vkou 6y ago
With everyone who can staying at home, people not dying in car accidents, or getting the flu, you would expect there to be a vastly reduced rate of mortality. Instead, there's a moderate increase, despite us taking drastic preventative measures. Lift the measures, and mortality will skyrocket. ... Meanwhile, in parts of Asia, the lockdowns have lifted months ago, and life is back to normal. That's what happens when your government takes this disease seriously, instead of half-assing it's response to the epidemic.
fxtentacle 6y ago
I believe that Germany is seeing so little excess mortality exactly because they did an acceptable job with their lockdown. Italy and France are seeing excess mortality.
HoverSausage 6y ago
During the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak in the UK, it wasn't a small percentage increase of deaths, the number of deaths DOUBLED.
- arethuza 6y ago
  The graph from the Office of National Statistics makes that very clear: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19in10charts/2020-09-24 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...
cygx 6y ago
To add another data point: From Mar-Aug,the number of deaths in New York exceeded the expectation by 65%. The US total from Mar-Jul was 20% higher than expected. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761
invalidusernam3 6y ago
Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: [1] World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 To date, 1.2 million people have died from covid [2]. The year isn't finished, and for the first 3 months the spread of covid was only starting. Currently, around 5k to 7k people die per day from covid, and that number is expected to go up since the daily new cases are increasing (from around 300k per day end of September, to around 450k per day end of October) Comparing it to an unusually strong flu variant is drastically underplaying the severity. All of these numbers are despite international lockdowns and efforts to stop the spread. The numbers would be far, far higher if no measures had been taken. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
yvdriess 6y ago
Can you clarify the point you are trying to make, because at the moment I can only interpret your post as: "It's all overblown, these measures are not necessary".
simiones 6y ago
Stop spreading this drivel. Covid is well on the way to causing as many deaths in 1 year worldwide as TB; it's already killed three times as many people as malaria; comparing it to the flu is laughable. And all of these deaths and infection numbers are low because we have reacted - not strongly enough - much more than we do to a flu. If we had taken the usual flu measures, the deaths would skyrocket from overwhelmed hospitals, as has been seen in early unprepared regions (such as the Bergamo region in Italy).
alexmingoia 6y ago
The article is about how the west didn’t take it seriously enough, early enough — not that they overreacted. Sweden (and most of the EU and US) has done terribly compared with China, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan measured in deaths per million. These countries took a proactive, serious approach and have successfully prevented widespread local transmission. China has done an amazing job at preventing the spread of coronavirus, considering its huge population, long borders, and volume of international trade.
- acdha 6y ago
  … and, yes, China has used measures which are much easier in an authoritarian police state as part of that response. That puts the onus on those of us who disagree with that on working to have our countries be more like South Korea, Taiwan, NZ, etc. since the Chinese government has not hesitated to point to the differences as proof that their system is superior.
ralfn 6y ago
>probably spurred on by Chinese propaganda and their fake reporting. What the hell are you talking about? What propaganda or fake reporting? China initially denied there even was a virus or that it was dangerous. Just like Europe. Just like the US. What kind of weird conspiracy websites are you getting this information from and how did you end on this site? Don't those places have comment sections too where you can discuss with like minded people that are also shopping for confirmation basis data points for their xenophobia. China has a very scary government but that's no reason to for us here to just make shit up. It actually dilutes from the real risks and criticisms.
- sumedh 6y ago
  > China has a very scary government but that's no reason to for us here to just make shit up. China can open their firewall and let their citizens speak freely if they have nothing to hide.
  - vkou 6y ago
    China has an extensive diaspora of people who stay in regular touch with relatives back home. You'd know this, if you actually spoke to any Chinese immigrants. This diaspora knew about how serious COVID was back in January. If they had millions of people secretly falling sick today, this diaspora would have heard about it. It hasn't, and they don't. For all intents and purposes, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and yes, China have brought the virus under control, while we are faffing about with millions sick.
    - sumedh 6y ago
      I dont understand why you are defending the Chinese regime? > This diaspora knew about how serious COVID was back in January. I know because lot of them were buying masks and other PPE from Australia and sending it to China. Too bad they did not care about their host country. Not sure why you are talking about South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam they are much more open than China.
      - 6y ago
singemonkey 6y ago
> COVID at best is a once-a-decade unusually strong flu variant which we have severely overreacted to - probably spurred on by Chinese propaganda and their fake reporting. dang, why are you allowing this kind of shit on here? Please step up and sort this out.
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  > dang, why are you allowing this kind of shit on here? Please step up and sort this out. You're the one who's wrong: SARS-1 2003 MERS 2012 COVID-19 2019 Mortality for under 30: 0.05% Mortality for 30-50: 0.1% And nobody believes any reports from China or the WHO.
  - gscott 6y ago
    So true. Saying China did a good job is like saying the USA should suspend the Constitution and do the same thing: Wuhan death fog https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098 https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-dea... Wuhan protests: Incinerator plan sparks mass unrest https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48904350 https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48904350 Chinese woman describes Wuhan virus patients being burned alive https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3881683 Video shows interior of new Wuhan 'hospital' resembles prison https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3870468 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3870468 You Can Now Go to Jail in China for Criticizing Beijing’s Coronavirus Response https://nypost.com/2020/01/30/chinese-residents-face-jail-if-they-slam-countrys-coronavirus-response/ https://nypost.com/2020/01/30/chinese-residents-face-jail-if... Video appears to show people in China forcibly taken for quarantine over coronavirus https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people-china-forcibly-taken-quarantine-over-coronavirus-n1133096 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people... "They treat us like we're the virus": Africans evicted from housing in Chinese city https://observers.france24.com/en/20200413-coronavirus-nigerians-evicted-housing-chinese-city https://observers.france24.com/en/20200413-coronavirus-niger...
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
Kiro 6y ago
I don't agree with your conclusion but Neil Ferguson has indeed been wrong. His model predicted 85,000 deaths in Sweden by now. I don't understand why the Imperial models are still taken seriously.
- singemonkey 6y ago
  Please stop parroting this kind of misinformation.
- acdha 6y ago
  This is a popular right-wing trope but I’ve never seen a source despite the reports being available and the full model being on GitHub. Can you provide a citation for that exact claim? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model
  - Kiro 6y ago
    In Sweden it's a left-wing trope (the right wants lockdown and masks while the left supports the lax approach so the model has mostly received criticism from the left) and I believed it but you're completely right, so I apologize: https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/1307760615545606145 https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/13077606155456061... > Thanks for confirming: Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model did not point to 85,000 Covid deaths for Sweden; another researcher did. A mean time-varying reproduction number Rt estimate in March is not a prediction of deaths nor is it a model for predicting them.
    - acdha 6y ago
      Ah, I should have been more specific that I only follow this in the English-language media so I’ve seen it newspapers in the UK or Australia (the US discourse doesn’t mention this much).

empiko 6y ago

It is exponentially harder to contain the virus on continent with hundreds of millions of people with dozens of countries than to contain it on islands with one centralized government. It is not only Europe and USA, but also India, South America, Middle East, Russia, etc that fail at it for the same reason. The only continental country that managed to control the virus is China, but they can do it mainly because they have no problem banning immigration (which is not feasible for EU countries for example) and because they can use the centralized government to make decisions that would not fly elsewhere. Effectively, China can function as a really big island.

Traster 6y ago
The article does a terrible job at addressing nuance. Take Australia - a country the size of Europe with a population of 25m, and Europe - a continent the size of Australia with a population of 750m. Clearly we can compare these like for like and whine about "culture".
- viraptor 6y ago
  And yet more nuance - the density of major cities in both Europe and Australia are reasonably comparable, so concentrating on those rather than towns / rural / empty areas does provide some information. Sure, the environment will be slightly different and local travel changes things. But most Londoners and most Melbournians don't move that much. (Try to invite someone to zone 5) They'll have mostly-local interactions and similar social activity circles.
- friendlybus 6y ago
  Australia was setup for this kind of incident either way with strict quarantine rules for decades on natural goods & animals brought into the country. The local wildlife had suffered from invasive species. It was not a hard act to shut it all down. The structure of the schengen area and the differing population densities is an entirely different beast, I agree.
- cam_l 6y ago
  >a country the size of Europe with a population of 25m You must not have spent much time here. Most Australians live in a narrow band stretched along the south east coast. Victoria, which has just come out of a 4 month lockdown, has nearly 7m residents in about 240 thousand sq km. Slightly smaller, but on par with Sweden. Like Sweden, two thirds of the state is virtually empty. Though in Victoria, we have a much more dense urban centre. The rest of Australia is similar, very small, dense urban centre with vast tracks of unoccupied land. Yes, we can compare these if we are careful about the similarities and differences. Our populated areas have similar densities as various population centres across Europe. Our cities have been cut off from regional areas, and our states closed off from each other, which seems like maybe a bigger deal than if European states closed off from each other. Maybe nuance is hard when you have a point to make.

secondcoming 6y ago

Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. What will Aus/NZ do then? Pandemic-fatigue is a real thing, both will always be at risk from a nutter not self-isolating properly when they return from abroad. Everyone's strategy is to wait for a vaccine.

accurrent 6y ago
Aus/NZ can continue trade with the East Asian nations I guess? Many East Asian nations have brought this under control through strict lockdown. Of course some things that are missing from the argument are the fact that many East Asian nations that have controlled the virus have extremely well organized governments which are able to deliver stimulus where needed. For myself living in Singapore, the government has been fairly generous with economic stimulus.
Zenst 6y ago
>Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. That will be the case, unsure there will be a vaccine that will give you a lifetime immunity (hopeful but I have serious doubts upon that myself the more I learn about this area). More likely to be like the flu vaccine, changes each year or requires a yearly booster perhaps. More case of managing the sick numbers that need treatment in hospitals and capacity planning, over time - natural immunity, vaccines will provide that level of throttling as we get with the flu. Though supply/demand does play out in many forms and gradually gets to a balance that is manageable, we are just at the stage of the initial rush and year or two on, things will start to become more settled. Though that pattern plays out in many forms in life and is a supply/demand with the supply being hospital/care capacity and demand being the virus nobody wants. Hopefully more focus upon health armies over the conventional armies will arise. Certainly I'd not rule out countries doing health work conscription of some form in years to come - even just to educate people about basics and more so - better prepared for such events/disasters - which happen more than war.
graeme 6y ago
So for australia/nz to have trouble, as you suggested: 1. The traveller must be infected (sub 5% odds) 2. They must decide to break isolation (most people are honest) 3. They must actively be infectious at the time they do (most people infect zero people. The household attack rate is 17%!) 4. They have to go someplace where they can infect many (e.g. a bar rather than breaking isolation for a park or groceries or family) 5. The govt must be slow to react once cases are detected NZ has had outbreaks but reverted to normal. As you say, everyone is waiting for a vaccine. Seems infinitely preferable to wait in NZ rather than in France or UK which just locked down again. You’re functionally quite free in australia and NZ.

Traster 6y ago

Frankly, this article doesn't seem to bring anything new to the table and seems to just couch the author's pre-conceptions in massively over-arching generalizations about "The West". There have been huge differences in policy, govenrment response and death rate across Europe. But instaed they all get lumped into one and then scolded for attitudes that frankly seem to only describe one particular part of America's atittudes.

fxtentacle 6y ago

Slightly OT, but I've wondered about this for a while: Opponents of lockdowns usually claim that the economic damage will outweigh the humanity gained. But for me personally, I'm pretty sure that attending 1 funeral per month will damage my productivity much more strongly than work from home, wearing masks while shopping, and ordering delivery instead of going to the restaurant in person. What am I missing? Are people in New York so used to seeing dead bodies by now that it doesn't bother them anymore?

odshoifsdhfs 6y ago
Because while you can work from home and have a paycheck, thousands (millions?) of small businesses are closing and the people rely on those to make their money. I could endure a lockdown for years (heck, I've worked remotely for 10), but my friends that own a restaurant? Screwed! My coach that needs the athletes to practise? Screwed! Friend's mother that sells her vegetables in farmers markets? Screwed! etc etc And with these closing, less money all around, other businesses end up following suit, even if they aren't directly affected, they will be down the line.
- fxtentacle 6y ago
  If I remember correctly, Germany spent 550 billion on the 2008 banking crisis. There's roughly 80 million citizens. So the government could - at the same cost - pay every citizen €2300 = $2700 per month for 3 months to cover the complete loss of income caused by a super-strict lock-down. Why is that not an option?
  - odshoifsdhfs 6y ago
    I don't know, ask them. I'm not defending government's actions here. I'm just showing what the 'angry people against lockdown' are feeling. In Portugal the societal help was full of limitations (if you were self employed but made even 50 euros that month, you would get no help, but if you made nothing, you would get around 500, smart no? - it was later changed) and cuts but somehow we found 1.7 billion to save an already unprofitable and bankrupted airline which seems that will still need 100 million per month from government not to close.

unnouinceput 6y ago

Quote 1: "... tank their economies to an extent that may affect the global balance of power for our lifetimes" Quote 2: "It is we, the virus-riddled Westerners, who will be isolated indefinitely" Wooow there lady, let's wait for vaccine that would be rolling out in a few months, maximum a year, before spilling Apocalypse and FUD all over the place. Yeah, I agree, West fucked up, but I bet it will also rebound within maximum 5 years.

makomk 6y ago
What makes this especially propaganda-riffic is that it's not just the West that's "virus-riddled", it's also Africa, India, the Middle East... in fact, basically everywhere except the countries listed in the articles as having succeeded (and maybe not some of those - I wouldn't trust the reporting out of China or Vietnam one bit at this point). Those countries are basically going to have to isolate themselves from not just the West, but the entire rest of the planet indefinitely if no really effective vaccine appears.
- yomly 6y ago
  I find it curious that people are so skeptical of China and Vietnam's numbers. A government might be able to hide some percentage points, or even an order of magnitude of the spread. But hiding more than that is pretty impossible in this modern day age. Especially a place like China with high internet penetration, proximity to Hong Kong and a population of overseas relatives in the millions. People may recall the Chinese citizens risking their lives to leak in the ground footage onto YouTube - I can't imagine that would stop if things were bad in China. So 0 cases might be 10 or even 100. But it's hardly going to be 10000 or 10000000. It also shows a huge ignorance towards cultural attitudes towards both authority and contagion. I know plenty of Chinese people who sheltered long before governments told them to due to covid. They were prepared to cancel Chinese New Year rather than whine about the poor sadness of missing Christmas. And when the government issued orders plenty were willing to listen and trust the authorities. Yes the Chinese people are not infallible: people went to hotpot and whistleblowers were wrongly imprisoned. People also protested in Wuhan. But man seriously we like to scorn communist countries for having their propaganda but if you are comfortable preaching "their numbers are fake" you're buying into the western rhetoric that China can't have been better than us. In any case if it is so hard to imagine China and Vietnam achieving containment of the virus maybe some friendlier examples include our friends in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan.

BlueTemplar 6y ago

Not to mention that there's now a scientific and medical consensus about how a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (and zinc) is effective at preventing the virus from gaining foothold in the body when the first symptoms appear – but many of the governments and so-called "medical authorities" are in complete denial of this. EDIT : and the GAFAMs (& Twitter) have been complicit of this censorship in preventing the doctors (= experimental scientists) from discussing their work on their platforms.

disgruntledphd2 6y ago
Please provide peer-reviewed evidence for this claim. It's pretty extraordinary, and you are essentially saying that the medical profession are engaged in a vast conspiracy to prevent lives being saved, which does not pass the sniff test (for me, at least).
- mlthoughts2018 6y ago
  It’s better to do one of these: (a) downvote and move on, the parent comment has a lot of hallmarks of not engaging in good faith discussion. (b) steelman their argument, improve it for them and see what conclusions are or further predictions it would indicate (c) look for evidence that confirms it first. Saying something like, “I tried to research your claim but I only found FOO, which does not include any reputable or credible sources. Meanwhile, reputable sources like BAR have said <whatever>,” is much gentler and diplomatic as well as adding new information for other participants. Other people will see the comment and realize it has no supporting argument. Any rebutting comment that only says “citation needed, your claims are extreme” isn’t helpful no matter how obviously poor quality the original comment was.
  - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
    My prior on this is that it's probably incorrect. However, it's possible that I am wrong, and the OP may provide sources that change my mind. The most likely outcome is no reply, but that suits me fine as reasonable observers will conclude that there isn't any evidence.

manishsharan 6y ago

You can't have a lock down without universal basic income. You can't force some families into poverty to protect some other families without suitable economic compensation.

Zenst 6y ago
Certainly the whole aspect of UBI would of been better for all in these times and hopefully some review of that will happen. In the UK we have Universal Credit - a means tested benefit system that is halfway-house towards UBI in some ways. https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit
mlthoughts2018 6y ago
This is why an exceptional situation like a pandemic lockdown warrants a massive stimulus package in Congress - so that wages can still be paid to people the government must unfortunately prevent from working. It paints an unfortunately one-sided picture in the US at least - there is just no arguing that the economic suffering and inflaming regular people to become wrongly anti-lockdown is the fault of Congressional Republicans and the president for not urgently passing additional very large stimulus and relief packages.
viraptor 6y ago
Melbourne did just that. Could it be done better? Sure. Can it be done without ubi? Definitely.
- sumedh 6y ago
  > Can it be done without ubi? Definitely Melbourne(and Australia) had Jobkeeper and JobSeeker payments.
  - viraptor 6y ago
    Every country has some specific social support system. I was commenting specifically about the ubi which just doesn't exist at large.

s9w 6y ago

Situation in Germany: - slightly less deaths than normal [0]. - Less ICU patients than normal ([1] vs [2]) - stagnant (and normal) amount of people with respiratory illnesses [3] The only thing unusual at all is the PCR tests. [0]: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Corona/_Grafik/_Interaktiv/woechentliche-sterbefallzahlen-jahre.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Corona/_Grafik... [1]: http://s9w.io/intensivregister-10-31.png http://s9w.io/intensivregister-10-31.png [2]: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/880182/umfrage/auslastung-der-intensivstationen-in-deutschen-krankenhaeusern-nach-groessenklasse/ https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/880182/umfrag... [3]: https://imgur.com/qYed6rF https://imgur.com/qYed6rF

the5avage 6y ago

My father is currently connected to a ICU because of corona virus. It makes me sick to see how many people are not able to wear their mask over their nose. I live in Germany btw. So I agree 100% with the article. It's completely unacceptable that we are not able to control or enforce such basic things...

Semaphor 6y ago
> It makes me sick to see how many people are not able to wear their mask over their nose. It’s weird, because I have seen exactly one person who didn’t wear one in a store since you had to in March. A few more since the outdoor inner city mask mandate started last week, but still a tiny, tiny minority. I have heard it’s worse in public transport, but at least in the inner city of Lübeck, compliance is absolutely amazing.
- the5avage 6y ago
  Maybe people in the north are more social ;) I live in Berlin and there it works because every store has a security and you will not be able to enter without mask. Right now I am in Baden-Württemberg and there the customers all wear masks but the employees of stores themself violate the rules. Very strange...

roenxi 6y ago

The pandemic isn't over. It remains too early to talk about what succeeded or failed. Speaking from Australia, it is unclear that our policy of isolation is sustainable. The lack of migration is going to have slowrolling and serious economic blowback. We really don't know what this sort of crisis will precipitate. It isn't unthinkable that the shockwaves from COVID, in the form of wars and political action driven by economic instability, take down entire government systems. It is still far to early to work out who has failed and who hasn't. The fog of uncertainty isn't going to lift before 2023. It takes time to catalogue and report back on what is actually happening.

jerome-jh 6y ago
I agree and I'd add that EU has not failed yet. It has not given up the fight as the US did. Certainly we have been far too loose during September and October. But at his moment all of the EU countries are striving to provide care for everyone in need, which implies remaining below hospitals saturation threshold.
- im3w1l 6y ago
  Why not match capacity to cases rather than match cases to capacity? They have had 6 months now to increase capacity but it seems they aren't even trying.
  - jerome-jh 6y ago
    Sure they did very little effort in that area. But you have to consider that saturation is reached eventually, so long R0 is > 1. Current trajectory for France is a doubling of cases every 3 weeks. Assuming a huge capacity increase of 50%, that would afford a 12 days delay.
    - im3w1l 6y ago
      Factor 1.5 more capacity means 1/1.5 time of flattening the curve.

zby 6y ago

It is funny how the West was not authoritarian enough for any top down effective action - but proved to be authoritarian enough to prevent us from buying antigen tests (https://zby.medium.com/it-is-9-months-now-why-we-have-no-mass-testing-for-sars-cov-2-yet-27b5f409c7d2 https://zby.medium.com/it-is-9-months-now-why-we-have-no-mas...) and build our own bottom up response. What is left for us is buying the antigen tests on black market and building our 'safe bubbles': https://zby.medium.com/safe-bubbles-5bf43b09f7c5 https://zby.medium.com/safe-bubbles-5bf43b09f7c5

sampo 6y ago
Slovakia just antigen-tested half of their population this past weekend. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-...
- zby 6y ago
  Yes - I watch it closely! I hope it will be a success - and then everybody will copy it :) The cost is really minimal. But in the meantime - black or grey market. It used to be possible to buy the tests from online pharmacies - but now I hear from my friends that they start checking if you really are a medical professional.
- zby 6y ago
  There are some caveats though - it seems that they have 1% of positive tests - but I cannot find any information if the try to confirm the positives with another test (PCR ideally). The specs on the test quotes 0.3% of false positives - this too close to that 1% of total positives.

Seb-C 6y ago

French living in Japan here. From what I have seen on both sides, I think the main difference is that most Asian people have a culture of group thinking and common interest, while most western people behave selfishly. I also noticed that western people relies only on the governments rather that the collective and individual actions they can do. It is clear to me even by reading this page. Everything is about what the governments did or did not, failed or succeeded. The virus does not care about politics, it is transmitted from one person to another, so the individual persons have the responsibility to do something. The governments does not have the power to stop a pandemic.