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This is the kind of headline you look back five years later and realize it marked the market top.
by throwaway5752 6y ago
This is the kind of headline you look back five years later and realize it marked the market top.
- diogenescynic 6y agoMaybe, but with infinite QE and near zero interest rates until 2023 at least, the market will likely continue to pay a premium for growth. If you picked low P/E stocks over the last 20 years, your portfolio would have done worse than a portfolio of high P/E stocks. For instance, Blockbuster and Netflix were trading during the same period and Blockbuster had a lower P/E, but obviously Netflix was the better investment. Same thing with Ford and Tesla.
- mandelbrotwurst 6y agoThere is no infinite QE. It is dependent on confidence in the value of the currency, which has been decreasing by a number of metrics, although we can certainly argue about the rate of decline. Not a rebuttal to your overall point, but worth paying attention to.
- howlgarnish 6y agoAs holders of Zimbabwean trillion-dollar notes will attest, governments can and will keep printing money even after complete loss of confidence, and in a hyperinflationary situation you're much better off holding shares than cash. (Of course, you're even better holding hard currency.) That said, by most measures the current crisis has to date been deflationary. I expect that to change at some point, but I'll also readily admit I did not foresee the current market rally, so who knows what the market will do tomorrow.
- neilwilson 6y ago"but I'll also readily admit I did not foresee the current market rally" Given you didn't see that, have you considered that your view of Zimbabwe might be wrong? Nothing to do with confidence and everything to do with a silly policy to redistribute land to people that can't farm. QE doesn't give money away for free does it. It is always an asset purchase. That is a qualitative difference. Similarly a bad pilot doesn't mean heavier than air flight is impossible. You just need a better pilot. More on what actually happened in Zimbabwe here: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=3773 http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=3773
- mantap 6y agoThe fed can do what they are doing because the dollar has safe haven status. When things get bad globally, capital flows into the dollar not out of it. If any other country (except perhaps Japan) tried to do what the fed does they would probably end up like Zimbabwe no matter how good their pilot. Currencies have got in the shit for a lot less.
- RobertoG 6y agoSo, the fed can do it because is special. Japan can do it because is special, the Central European Bank can do it because it's special and the British can do it because they are special. Not only that, but they can do it all at the same time. At some point, a theory with more exceptions than the opposite should be considered useless. Specially when there is a clear alternative: inflation happens when the spending in the economy surpass the capacity of the economy. Than can happen because the government and the private sector spend too much (bubbles) or because the supply side collapse (hyperinflation in Zimbabwe).
- mantap 6y agoThe currencies you list are all considered major reserve currencies, USD, JPY, GBP, EUR. They have value outside of trade. There's over 100 currencies. Most central banks control currencies that are rather pedestrian like Thai Baht or South African Rand.
- neilwilson 6y agoAnd why is that an issue? The most that can happen is that there is no saving of the Baht or the Rand outside the taxation area of those currencies. Assuming they are fully floating. In which case the central bank will be doing nothing other than offsetting the domestic savings in the currency of issue. Because sector balances have to balance. The concept of "reserve" is utterly flawed. People hold balances of all sorts of currencies for very many reasons - largely working capital, but also for insurance and for prestige.
- 6y ago
- wahern 6y agoOver the past 10 years or so Zimbabwean trillion dollar notes have outperformed the stock market with an annualized investment return of ~70%. They're so valuable that there's a huge counterfeit market.
- howlgarnish 6y agoThe Zim dollar ceased to be legal currency in 2009, they're purely collectible now and the value is rising because they're not making any more of them. (Maybe they should?)
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- neilwilson 6y ago"There is no infinite QE" There is. The central bank can offset all the excess saving in the economy from now until doomsday. As Japan has shown for decades. Once you close the mental model you'll see why. What does "confidence in the currency" mean in reality? It means that fewer people want to save in that denomination. When they don't save they have to spend (since that is the only alternative in aggregate), when they spend that generates asset inflation, production and, most importantly, more and more tax points - which reduces the need for bonds and "QE" in the first place. Always remember that an FX transaction is nothing more than a set of two contracts each of which transfer a currency to the other party no less than two days hence. Which means eventually somebody has to have the actual liquidity to settle the net flow. There is no liquidity provider of last resort.
- BoorishBears 6y agoThis is the kind of comment you find on this kind of headline from 5 years ago... and realize how many people have missed out on a good chunk of profit from the most determined bull run in history
- grey-area 6y agoQuite. When people start telling you there is a new normal, this is a new paradigm, you just don't understand these new companies, x style of investing is dead, you know a reset is coming.
- throwaway5752 6y agoThe phrase "Value investing is dead" is a decades-old inside joke. One can google it. Value & growth strategies oscillate. When then persist in one state too long people who haven't been around as long (or who are selling something) make grandiose proclamations. It's a fundamental reality related as much to the business cycle as it is to the human condition/psychological cycle of investment. An investment is worth the value of its future cash flows discounted by the risk free rate (plus terminal value). That's it, it's all that 90% of people need to know. There are many, many unknowns in that statement, which makes it a market.
- robjan 6y agoWhen random throwaway accounts are the two top comments predicting a crash...
- throwaway5752 6y agoIf you have a point, make it. Otherwise I am a more established member of this community than you are on every metric, and have just as much publicly identifiable information in my profile.
- paul_f 6y agoMaybe, but don't ever ever try to time the market.
- dls2016 6y agoHaha why? I'd much rather be wrong and miss out on some gains for a year than loose a bunch like I did in 2008 with this mentality. Pandemic damage is certainly not priced in.
- staticman2 6y agoBecause if there is a bubble it can go on for a decade, you'll eventually lose faith in your strategy and go all in at even worse valuations.
- throwaway5752 6y agoI agree completely.
- zeroonetwothree 6y agoIt’s because there’s one of these every week so it’s easy to cherry pick retroactively.
- jeffreyrogers 6y agoYeah, I've been hearing the market is overvalued and due for a correction since at least 2013. That's going to be correct one of these days.