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ByteDance plans TikTok IPO to win U.S. deal as deadline looms

83 points by adventured 6y ago

dforrestwilson 6y ago
Does anyone think this plan actually works for the US Government?
- duxup 6y ago
  Depends on what you mean, there are a lot of ways to look at this. If somehow they do get the apps banned from app stores... I suspect that would constitute a fairly large chunk of the US cut off from tiktok. On the other hand if you look at it from the POTUS's POV where just saying your doing stuff means you can claim victory... he might feel he already won.
  - bmitc 6y ago
    There is only one way to look at this, and that’s what it is. It’s the president and his administration searching for any route to re-election and thus abusing any power he has towards that goal. It could also be collusion in which Trump is trying to personally profit or have supporters profit. The security angle is theater. Many American corporations gather and abuse much more data than any allegations against TikTok and WeChat. And if people are really worried about foreign monitoring, then there are millions of cameras and microphones embedded in baby monitors, pet feeders, home security cameras, and other smart devices, all foreign made and networked. Some claims of influence could be made in TikTok, but there’s literally nothing stopping that from happening on platforms owned by U.S. companies, where it’s been proven to have happened and is still currently happening. So that argument doesn’t apply. If it does apply, it applies to a much broader app landscape than just TikTok and WeChat. So in the end, everyone debating this thing as if it is an actual intelligent thing to be discussed is just adding legitimacy to Trump grasping for re-election and another one of his chaotic moves. There are actual problems but those are only plastered onto this whole deal by externals. The president literally tried to treat this thing as if it was an episode of The Apprentice, demanding payment from the sale. It’s ludicrous. This is exactly what Adam Curtis means by Hypernormalization.
    - Temasik 6y ago
      >gain 100 points on ccp's credit score
    - asquabventured 6y ago
      How exactly does this move help him win reelection? I'm genuinely curious, I just don't see how this action would move anyone into a Trump vote who was previously not already planning to vote Trump.
      - bmitc 6y ago
        No one said it is an intelligent move. Just because it is a move doesn’t necessarily make it a good one. Trump is, hopefully, grasping for straws. He has tried to use the virus and now trade to tie into hate brooding in the country and use anti-Chinese sentiment to his advantage. Trump has specifically attacked Biden as being soft on China. It’s all a ploy, just like his shenanigans on the U.S. treasury being sent a cut of the sale of TikTok. The fact that there are legitimate issues external but related to Trump’s actions and proclamations does not legitimize them. I think it’s dangerous because people are underestimating just how hateful a lot of the U.S. is against foreigners and how whatever Trump is anti at the moment spreads like wildfire. Americans in general do not understand China or even how similar our government can be, and so it is easy to rally people against it.
    - adventured 6y ago
      > Many American corporations gather and abuse much more data than any allegations against TikTok and WeChat. You're inventing a false premise with that setup. The issue with TikTok isn't primarily data collection unto itself. It's that they're owned by China (ie who is doing the data collecting), and without exception all large corporations in China are directly commanded by the CCP. They have CCP committees that 'advise' the boards and outline what the companies may or may not do at all times; primarily focused on major decisions, sensitive matters for the CCP, or matters of national strategy. The only reason ByteDance isn't selling TikTok for example, is because the CCP said they weren't allowed to because it would make China look weak; that's not a decision that is up to ByteDance, because they're not in control of anything ultimately. In China's dictatorship, all power by default rests with the CCP (and increasingly with future Chairman Xi's new cult of personality, as the purges have begun); that approach means they can do anything at any time for any reason. They even started hijacking boards in Hong Kong back in 2016: WSJ 2017: "Since 2016, at least 32 Chinese state-owned companies or units listed in Hong Kong have proposed changes to their corporate structures to install Communist Party committees that advise their boards of directors." [1] China isn't an ally of the US, they're a blend of enemy and super competitor. They don't freely allow US companies - such as Facebook, Google, Reddit, Twitter, Snapchat, Pinterest, Amazon AWS, and dozens of others - to operate inside of China. It's entirely reasonable to disallow some China-owned corporations from operating in the US as a matter of trade reciprocation. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-advising-chinas-state-firms-the-communist-party-1502703005 https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-advising-chinas-state-firms...
- sg47 6y ago
  Trump is somehow trying to make money out of this. He has repeatedly said money needs to be paid to the US Govt. By US Govt, given his corruption record, we'll have to assume it means him or his family.
  - mhh__ 6y ago
    He has been able to pay quite a lot of money to his own pocket via his hotels and such, but I'm not sure whether they'd be that blatant.
    - pavlov 6y ago
      Oracle seems to be getting a sweetheart deal from the government here, and Larry Ellison has donated substantial amounts to Trump's campaign. Maybe that's not outright corruption, but it would raise eyebrows in any Western democracy.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- bigpumpkin 6y ago
  The US government will try to reduce Chinese ownership in Tiktok. Bytedance will try to resist fire sales. What's the best compromise? Have an IPO in the US and have a lot of US investors in the deal, diluting Bytedance.
  - dylan604 6y ago
    What if the the IPO happens but a single large/majority chunk of stock ends up being Chinese investors?
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      That's business for ya. POTUS doesn't really care about anything other than optics. Claim the win, move on. We live in a post-fact world now.
- mhh__ 6y ago
  If this is their secret weapon for the election then it's not a very good one. If we make a simple division of the population into 4 groups, we'll have 1. People who are ambivalent i.e. don't care or aren't familiar with the app 2. People who are strongly against it for a variety of reasons 3. People who are in favour because it's a blow scored against the Chinese 4. People who are in favour due to their feelings about the app specifically It seems likely to me that the second grouping will be the largest. I don't think much will come of it but it will take much, much more than this to neuter China. It's not quite as vacuous "Build the wall" but it's not far off - if you want to battle china economically, get trading with their competitors (i.e. vote for centrists - Bernie is almost as protectionist as Trump)
  - sterlind 6y ago
    I'm concerned about China's policy of heavy-handed protectionism and censorship internally while benefitting from global markets externally. But I don't like this tit-for-tat action by the US. Cutting off Tiktok will only further accelerate the balkanization of the internet. Keeping US companies from kataoing to the Chinese regime with special concessions (e.g. Dragonfly) and making services too important to easily firewall off (e.g. GitHub) seems like a better strategy. At least I hope so.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      > I'm concerned about China's policy of heavy-handed protectionism and censorship internally while benefitting from global markets externally. Foreign companies benefited enormously from the opening up of the Chinese market, and China is not nearly as protectionist as it's made out to be. Western media has trouble entering China because of political censorship, but Western businesses in general have very good market access. China is a very significant market for most major US tech companies.
      - philliphaydon 6y ago
        Western business do not have good market access. Just look at what’s happened with Disney. Spend years and years censoring movies and gaining favour of the CCP to get access to the market and a single movie ends up destroying their reputation overnight.
- gscott 6y ago
  Considering no one can get an app published in China from the US all Chinese founded apps should be banned until policy changes in China and US apps get approved.
- mlindner 6y ago
  Depends on whether they'll go through the full vetting process normally required for IPOing companies. Chinese companies have historically managed to refuse the vetting process when they're listed on US stock exchanges.
Traster 6y ago
I'm so confused about what's going on now. First it was Microsoft, then it was a technology deal with Oracle, now it's Walmart? and Oracle taking a majority stake, spinning out the global operations? Oh and Trump thinks MS are still involved despite them saying their offer was rejected? Oh and the IPO is planned for long after the election so wouldn't? happen if Trump loses. Oh and meanwhile the likelihood of China letting themselves get bullied out of one of their biggest tech successes. How much of Google, Apple, and Facebook will have to spin off to Chinese corporations in return?
- tenebrisalietum 6y ago
  Not clear why you expect any less out of 2020.
- loceng 6y ago
  It's more complex and nuanced than this what you've stated of course, why it's so confusing. Arguably, aside from security risk of the CCP having access to the data, banning apps is an leverage against the CCP having economic access to Americans to help influence the CCP to stopping their human rights abuses. If the CCP had allowed the United Nations to visit the prisons/concentration camps to interview prisoners (etc) then this could have all quickly gone away, assuming the CCP was being honest about what was happening at these concentration camps and the UN could confirm that on the ground.
  - CameronNemo 6y ago
    There is absolutely nothing that would convince me that this administration cares about human rights.
    - loceng 6y ago
      Agreed, it's happenstance that it's an issue they could piggyback on looking for "tough on China" propaganda all for appearance purposes.
  - cagenut 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
tuberelay 6y ago
ByteDance are being obstinate. Ban the app, let a US clone reclaim the entire market. Oh, and F the CCP.
someelephant 6y ago
Why hasn't twitter relaunched vine? The market is very different now from when they shut it down. I'm surprised that investors haven't demanded it yet.
- gman83 6y ago
  Dom Hofmann, one of the cofounders of Vine launched Byte which is basically a new Vine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byte_(app) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byte_(app). I don't know if it's catching on though. I guess if TikTok does get banned we'll see a mass migration somewhere.
  - iamcreasy 6y ago
    I don't keep up with the new social media - but I am wondering why TikTok succeeded where Vine failed?
    - canada2020 6y ago
      Better recommendation engine
      - amelius 6y ago
        Or actual people doing the recommendation?
        wzsddtc 6y ago
        You are right to a degree. Vine at its peak had less than 30 engineers total and at most 1 person working on the "engine".
        ev1 6y ago
        Think also about how much data plans and smartphones cost in 2012, particularly ones centred around video streaming
AcerbicZero 6y ago
Its interesting how DonnyT ran his 2016 campaign on trade with China, and now by virtue of opening his mouth, more people than ever are aware of certain questionable actions taken by semi-nationalized Chinese companies. I'm not sure thats a bad thing, all things considered.
- MangoCoffee 6y ago
  i think someone in his administration understand China better than all the previous. American have this belief that if you bring China into WTO. the open trade with China and free flow of commerce should transform China into a democracy. after 40 yrs, we see none of that. 8 yrs of Obama/Biden soft on anything China to the point of appeasement. (Chinese expansion on South China sea) Chinese CCP have only grow stronger and Xi have consolidated all powers into himself. Xi is more powerful than Mao. what we are seeing from Trump admin is 1. seperate Chinese people from CCP. i think that hit hard to the point that Xi have to come out and said CCP is UN-separable from Chinese people. 2. trying out how to use National security to hit Chinese companies like what we are seeing right now and with Huawei. it will be interesting to watch geopolitics in coming years if Trump win re-election. if Biden win, then it just back to Obama's era policies.
  - tmpz22 6y ago
    You make a very weak argument that Obama’s administration was soft on China. Your only point is strategy in the South China Sea and unless you’re privy to US Navy posturing and what our coordination with Japanese naval forces was at that time, you can’t definitively say that it is any different now.
    - redis_mlc 6y ago
      > You make a very weak argument that Obama’s administration was soft on China. This is common knowledge. Look up "Scarborough Shoal", and Obama's inaction which resulted in China's takeover of the 9-dash line area. The result of Obama's lack of deterrence is that the entire Asian region is arming for war now, which was entirely avoidable by sending a US carrier group there in a timely manner and just sailing in a circle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal As an aside, HN is around 3 months behind on news about China. You can get updated by watching some Youtube videos from the NTD family of channels. Virtually everything posted on HN is simply nonsense this quarter.
ilaksh 6y ago
I guess I am in the "crazy conspiracy-theorist" minority here but I see it as an actual security situation. And I believe the reason they are talking about Microsoft and Oracle is because the intelligence agencies are suggesting that it would actually be a good outcome if they were able to effectively access that userbase. Whereas it is not tolerable otherwise. Monitoring and controlling millions of people's information streams is a national security issue. And whether people want to believe it or not, all countries have propaganda programs. What you see in your feed becomes your reality. And just in case the above isn't enough to get buried, I will throw out an even crazier theory. TikTok is such mindless garbage it's reducing attention spans of kids even more. It may actually be making American children even stupider. So, to sum up, I think WWIII started with Covid and TikTok is just part two. Just kidding. Sort of. I hope.
- dilap 6y ago
  You think it's dangerous to have access to social networks not under US control? Many governments would, of course, agree, but this is traditionally the domain of governments seen as "authoritarian", such as, e.g., China. (Is it reasonable China does not let its citizens access Facebook?)
m3kw9 6y ago
How does the IPO help?
- chrisjc 6y ago
  Potentially distributes the pain to US shareholders.
Mountain_Skies 6y ago
$50 billion market value, 25,000 employees? This is for a short video sharing app, right? I'm confused both by the apparent market value of the company and the number of employees proposed for the US operations. Seems orders of magnitude off for what the app does, even at the scale that it does.
- smt88 6y ago
  You mention the number of employees and the complexity of the software. Neither matters for the valuation. Maybe it should, but it's not what the market cares about at this stage of the company. The $50B is for the 100M users MAUs, 50M of which are active daily[1]. They have a billion downloads as well. As a comparison, Facebook paid $1B for 30-40M signups on Instagram2[2][3]. Their MAUs and DAUs at the time would've been a small fraction of that. So if we consider TikTok's downloads to be equivalent to Instagram's signups, the valuation isn't crazy at all (especially since TikTok has revenue). 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/tiktok-reveals-us-global-user-growth-numbers-for-first-time.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/tiktok-reveals-us-global-use... 2. https://www.vox.com/2017/4/9/15235940/facebook-instagram-acquisition-anniversary https://www.vox.com/2017/4/9/15235940/facebook-instagram-acq... 3. https://techcrunch.com/2012/04/13/instagrams-user-count-now-at-40-million-saw-10-million-new-users-in-last-10-days/ https://techcrunch.com/2012/04/13/instagrams-user-count-now-...
- hoten 6y ago
  It's not about what the app does, it's about the eyeballs looking at it.
- abc-xyz 6y ago
  The value TikTok brings to the CCP cannot be understated. > ByteDance has had a party committee since 2017 and is headed by CCP secretary and company editor-in-chief Zhang Fuping (張輔評), reported Human Rights Watch. Members of the committee hold regular gatherings at which they study speeches by Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) and "pledge to follow the party in technological innovation." > In addition, ByteDance on April 25, 2019, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Public Security's Press and Publicity Bureau (公安部新聞宣傳局) in Beijing. The agreement was billed as "aiming to give full play to the professional technology and platform advantages of Toutiao and Tiktok in big data analysis," strengthen the creation and production of "public security new media works," boost "network influence and online discourse power," and enhance "public security propaganda, guidance, influence, and credibility," among other aspects. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3982027 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3982027
MichaelZuo 6y ago
Too many parties in this whole drama are too incentivized to spread FUD, or at least not debunk it, for anyone with only public information to really understand what’s going on.
acjohnson55 6y ago
I'm about as anti this administration as they come, but I'm not altogether opposed to some semblance of reciprocity in what China allows of US internet companies, and vice versa. I haven't followed this specific case closely enough to have an informed opinion of how it's being handled.

83 points by adventured 6y ago

dforrestwilson 6y ago

Does anyone think this plan actually works for the US Government?

duxup 6y ago
Depends on what you mean, there are a lot of ways to look at this. If somehow they do get the apps banned from app stores... I suspect that would constitute a fairly large chunk of the US cut off from tiktok. On the other hand if you look at it from the POTUS's POV where just saying your doing stuff means you can claim victory... he might feel he already won.
- bmitc 6y ago
  There is only one way to look at this, and that’s what it is. It’s the president and his administration searching for any route to re-election and thus abusing any power he has towards that goal. It could also be collusion in which Trump is trying to personally profit or have supporters profit. The security angle is theater. Many American corporations gather and abuse much more data than any allegations against TikTok and WeChat. And if people are really worried about foreign monitoring, then there are millions of cameras and microphones embedded in baby monitors, pet feeders, home security cameras, and other smart devices, all foreign made and networked. Some claims of influence could be made in TikTok, but there’s literally nothing stopping that from happening on platforms owned by U.S. companies, where it’s been proven to have happened and is still currently happening. So that argument doesn’t apply. If it does apply, it applies to a much broader app landscape than just TikTok and WeChat. So in the end, everyone debating this thing as if it is an actual intelligent thing to be discussed is just adding legitimacy to Trump grasping for re-election and another one of his chaotic moves. There are actual problems but those are only plastered onto this whole deal by externals. The president literally tried to treat this thing as if it was an episode of The Apprentice, demanding payment from the sale. It’s ludicrous. This is exactly what Adam Curtis means by Hypernormalization.
  - Temasik 6y ago
    >gain 100 points on ccp's credit score
  - asquabventured 6y ago
    How exactly does this move help him win reelection? I'm genuinely curious, I just don't see how this action would move anyone into a Trump vote who was previously not already planning to vote Trump.
    - bmitc 6y ago
      No one said it is an intelligent move. Just because it is a move doesn’t necessarily make it a good one. Trump is, hopefully, grasping for straws. He has tried to use the virus and now trade to tie into hate brooding in the country and use anti-Chinese sentiment to his advantage. Trump has specifically attacked Biden as being soft on China. It’s all a ploy, just like his shenanigans on the U.S. treasury being sent a cut of the sale of TikTok. The fact that there are legitimate issues external but related to Trump’s actions and proclamations does not legitimize them. I think it’s dangerous because people are underestimating just how hateful a lot of the U.S. is against foreigners and how whatever Trump is anti at the moment spreads like wildfire. Americans in general do not understand China or even how similar our government can be, and so it is easy to rally people against it.
  - adventured 6y ago
    > Many American corporations gather and abuse much more data than any allegations against TikTok and WeChat. You're inventing a false premise with that setup. The issue with TikTok isn't primarily data collection unto itself. It's that they're owned by China (ie who is doing the data collecting), and without exception all large corporations in China are directly commanded by the CCP. They have CCP committees that 'advise' the boards and outline what the companies may or may not do at all times; primarily focused on major decisions, sensitive matters for the CCP, or matters of national strategy. The only reason ByteDance isn't selling TikTok for example, is because the CCP said they weren't allowed to because it would make China look weak; that's not a decision that is up to ByteDance, because they're not in control of anything ultimately. In China's dictatorship, all power by default rests with the CCP (and increasingly with future Chairman Xi's new cult of personality, as the purges have begun); that approach means they can do anything at any time for any reason. They even started hijacking boards in Hong Kong back in 2016: WSJ 2017: "Since 2016, at least 32 Chinese state-owned companies or units listed in Hong Kong have proposed changes to their corporate structures to install Communist Party committees that advise their boards of directors." [1] China isn't an ally of the US, they're a blend of enemy and super competitor. They don't freely allow US companies - such as Facebook, Google, Reddit, Twitter, Snapchat, Pinterest, Amazon AWS, and dozens of others - to operate inside of China. It's entirely reasonable to disallow some China-owned corporations from operating in the US as a matter of trade reciprocation. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-advising-chinas-state-firms-the-communist-party-1502703005 https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-advising-chinas-state-firms...
sg47 6y ago
Trump is somehow trying to make money out of this. He has repeatedly said money needs to be paid to the US Govt. By US Govt, given his corruption record, we'll have to assume it means him or his family.
- mhh__ 6y ago
  He has been able to pay quite a lot of money to his own pocket via his hotels and such, but I'm not sure whether they'd be that blatant.
  - pavlov 6y ago
    Oracle seems to be getting a sweetheart deal from the government here, and Larry Ellison has donated substantial amounts to Trump's campaign. Maybe that's not outright corruption, but it would raise eyebrows in any Western democracy.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
bigpumpkin 6y ago
The US government will try to reduce Chinese ownership in Tiktok. Bytedance will try to resist fire sales. What's the best compromise? Have an IPO in the US and have a lot of US investors in the deal, diluting Bytedance.
- dylan604 6y ago
  What if the the IPO happens but a single large/majority chunk of stock ends up being Chinese investors?
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    That's business for ya. POTUS doesn't really care about anything other than optics. Claim the win, move on. We live in a post-fact world now.
mhh__ 6y ago
If this is their secret weapon for the election then it's not a very good one. If we make a simple division of the population into 4 groups, we'll have 1. People who are ambivalent i.e. don't care or aren't familiar with the app 2. People who are strongly against it for a variety of reasons 3. People who are in favour because it's a blow scored against the Chinese 4. People who are in favour due to their feelings about the app specifically It seems likely to me that the second grouping will be the largest. I don't think much will come of it but it will take much, much more than this to neuter China. It's not quite as vacuous "Build the wall" but it's not far off - if you want to battle china economically, get trading with their competitors (i.e. vote for centrists - Bernie is almost as protectionist as Trump)
- sterlind 6y ago
  I'm concerned about China's policy of heavy-handed protectionism and censorship internally while benefitting from global markets externally. But I don't like this tit-for-tat action by the US. Cutting off Tiktok will only further accelerate the balkanization of the internet. Keeping US companies from kataoing to the Chinese regime with special concessions (e.g. Dragonfly) and making services too important to easily firewall off (e.g. GitHub) seems like a better strategy. At least I hope so.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    > I'm concerned about China's policy of heavy-handed protectionism and censorship internally while benefitting from global markets externally. Foreign companies benefited enormously from the opening up of the Chinese market, and China is not nearly as protectionist as it's made out to be. Western media has trouble entering China because of political censorship, but Western businesses in general have very good market access. China is a very significant market for most major US tech companies.
    - philliphaydon 6y ago
      Western business do not have good market access. Just look at what’s happened with Disney. Spend years and years censoring movies and gaining favour of the CCP to get access to the market and a single movie ends up destroying their reputation overnight.
gscott 6y ago
Considering no one can get an app published in China from the US all Chinese founded apps should be banned until policy changes in China and US apps get approved.
mlindner 6y ago
Depends on whether they'll go through the full vetting process normally required for IPOing companies. Chinese companies have historically managed to refuse the vetting process when they're listed on US stock exchanges.

Traster 6y ago

I'm so confused about what's going on now. First it was Microsoft, then it was a technology deal with Oracle, now it's Walmart? and Oracle taking a majority stake, spinning out the global operations? Oh and Trump thinks MS are still involved despite them saying their offer was rejected? Oh and the IPO is planned for long after the election so wouldn't? happen if Trump loses. Oh and meanwhile the likelihood of China letting themselves get bullied out of one of their biggest tech successes. How much of Google, Apple, and Facebook will have to spin off to Chinese corporations in return?

tenebrisalietum 6y ago
Not clear why you expect any less out of 2020.
loceng 6y ago
It's more complex and nuanced than this what you've stated of course, why it's so confusing. Arguably, aside from security risk of the CCP having access to the data, banning apps is an leverage against the CCP having economic access to Americans to help influence the CCP to stopping their human rights abuses. If the CCP had allowed the United Nations to visit the prisons/concentration camps to interview prisoners (etc) then this could have all quickly gone away, assuming the CCP was being honest about what was happening at these concentration camps and the UN could confirm that on the ground.
- CameronNemo 6y ago
  There is absolutely nothing that would convince me that this administration cares about human rights.
  - loceng 6y ago
    Agreed, it's happenstance that it's an issue they could piggyback on looking for "tough on China" propaganda all for appearance purposes.
- cagenut 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

tuberelay 6y ago

ByteDance are being obstinate. Ban the app, let a US clone reclaim the entire market. Oh, and F the CCP.

someelephant 6y ago

Why hasn't twitter relaunched vine? The market is very different now from when they shut it down. I'm surprised that investors haven't demanded it yet.

gman83 6y ago
Dom Hofmann, one of the cofounders of Vine launched Byte which is basically a new Vine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byte_(app) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byte_(app). I don't know if it's catching on though. I guess if TikTok does get banned we'll see a mass migration somewhere.
- iamcreasy 6y ago
  I don't keep up with the new social media - but I am wondering why TikTok succeeded where Vine failed?
  - canada2020 6y ago
    Better recommendation engine
    - amelius 6y ago
      Or actual people doing the recommendation?
      - wzsddtc 6y ago
        You are right to a degree. Vine at its peak had less than 30 engineers total and at most 1 person working on the "engine".
        ev1 6y ago
        Think also about how much data plans and smartphones cost in 2012, particularly ones centred around video streaming

AcerbicZero 6y ago

Its interesting how DonnyT ran his 2016 campaign on trade with China, and now by virtue of opening his mouth, more people than ever are aware of certain questionable actions taken by semi-nationalized Chinese companies. I'm not sure thats a bad thing, all things considered.

MangoCoffee 6y ago
i think someone in his administration understand China better than all the previous. American have this belief that if you bring China into WTO. the open trade with China and free flow of commerce should transform China into a democracy. after 40 yrs, we see none of that. 8 yrs of Obama/Biden soft on anything China to the point of appeasement. (Chinese expansion on South China sea) Chinese CCP have only grow stronger and Xi have consolidated all powers into himself. Xi is more powerful than Mao. what we are seeing from Trump admin is 1. seperate Chinese people from CCP. i think that hit hard to the point that Xi have to come out and said CCP is UN-separable from Chinese people. 2. trying out how to use National security to hit Chinese companies like what we are seeing right now and with Huawei. it will be interesting to watch geopolitics in coming years if Trump win re-election. if Biden win, then it just back to Obama's era policies.
- tmpz22 6y ago
  You make a very weak argument that Obama’s administration was soft on China. Your only point is strategy in the South China Sea and unless you’re privy to US Navy posturing and what our coordination with Japanese naval forces was at that time, you can’t definitively say that it is any different now.
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    > You make a very weak argument that Obama’s administration was soft on China. This is common knowledge. Look up "Scarborough Shoal", and Obama's inaction which resulted in China's takeover of the 9-dash line area. The result of Obama's lack of deterrence is that the entire Asian region is arming for war now, which was entirely avoidable by sending a US carrier group there in a timely manner and just sailing in a circle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal As an aside, HN is around 3 months behind on news about China. You can get updated by watching some Youtube videos from the NTD family of channels. Virtually everything posted on HN is simply nonsense this quarter.

ilaksh 6y ago

I guess I am in the "crazy conspiracy-theorist" minority here but I see it as an actual security situation. And I believe the reason they are talking about Microsoft and Oracle is because the intelligence agencies are suggesting that it would actually be a good outcome if they were able to effectively access that userbase. Whereas it is not tolerable otherwise. Monitoring and controlling millions of people's information streams is a national security issue. And whether people want to believe it or not, all countries have propaganda programs. What you see in your feed becomes your reality. And just in case the above isn't enough to get buried, I will throw out an even crazier theory. TikTok is such mindless garbage it's reducing attention spans of kids even more. It may actually be making American children even stupider. So, to sum up, I think WWIII started with Covid and TikTok is just part two. Just kidding. Sort of. I hope.

dilap 6y ago
You think it's dangerous to have access to social networks not under US control? Many governments would, of course, agree, but this is traditionally the domain of governments seen as "authoritarian", such as, e.g., China. (Is it reasonable China does not let its citizens access Facebook?)

m3kw9 6y ago

How does the IPO help?

chrisjc 6y ago
Potentially distributes the pain to US shareholders.

Mountain_Skies 6y ago

$50 billion market value, 25,000 employees? This is for a short video sharing app, right? I'm confused both by the apparent market value of the company and the number of employees proposed for the US operations. Seems orders of magnitude off for what the app does, even at the scale that it does.

smt88 6y ago
You mention the number of employees and the complexity of the software. Neither matters for the valuation. Maybe it should, but it's not what the market cares about at this stage of the company. The $50B is for the 100M users MAUs, 50M of which are active daily[1]. They have a billion downloads as well. As a comparison, Facebook paid $1B for 30-40M signups on Instagram2[2][3]. Their MAUs and DAUs at the time would've been a small fraction of that. So if we consider TikTok's downloads to be equivalent to Instagram's signups, the valuation isn't crazy at all (especially since TikTok has revenue). 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/tiktok-reveals-us-global-user-growth-numbers-for-first-time.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/tiktok-reveals-us-global-use... 2. https://www.vox.com/2017/4/9/15235940/facebook-instagram-acquisition-anniversary https://www.vox.com/2017/4/9/15235940/facebook-instagram-acq... 3. https://techcrunch.com/2012/04/13/instagrams-user-count-now-at-40-million-saw-10-million-new-users-in-last-10-days/ https://techcrunch.com/2012/04/13/instagrams-user-count-now-...
hoten 6y ago
It's not about what the app does, it's about the eyeballs looking at it.
abc-xyz 6y ago
The value TikTok brings to the CCP cannot be understated. > ByteDance has had a party committee since 2017 and is headed by CCP secretary and company editor-in-chief Zhang Fuping (張輔評), reported Human Rights Watch. Members of the committee hold regular gatherings at which they study speeches by Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) and "pledge to follow the party in technological innovation." > In addition, ByteDance on April 25, 2019, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Public Security's Press and Publicity Bureau (公安部新聞宣傳局) in Beijing. The agreement was billed as "aiming to give full play to the professional technology and platform advantages of Toutiao and Tiktok in big data analysis," strengthen the creation and production of "public security new media works," boost "network influence and online discourse power," and enhance "public security propaganda, guidance, influence, and credibility," among other aspects. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3982027 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3982027

MichaelZuo 6y ago

Too many parties in this whole drama are too incentivized to spread FUD, or at least not debunk it, for anyone with only public information to really understand what’s going on.

acjohnson55 6y ago

I'm about as anti this administration as they come, but I'm not altogether opposed to some semblance of reciprocity in what China allows of US internet companies, and vice versa. I haven't followed this specific case closely enough to have an informed opinion of how it's being handled.