5 ms·

Let the college kids get sick. They are extremely unlikely to have any serious effects from covid. At least on a college campus they won’t infect older family m

Let the college kids get sick. They are extremely unlikely to have any serious effects from covid. At least on a college campus they won’t infect older family members. Herd immunity on campus would be reached very quickly. The few with serious preexisting conditions can stay home until that happens. The level of fear is frankly ridiculous. People get sick and people die. One day, we will all die. That is the human condition. Life must go on. This is not the Black Death. A 1% fatality rate, mostly of people already on the cusp of death, is not a reason to bring society to a halt, to lock children inside for months.

everydaydriver 6y ago
Even Cuomo mentioned in April that closing down colleges and having students return to live with, in some case, elderly relatives, may not have been the best public health policy.
- matz1 6y ago
  Is the policy is to have 0 death and to ignore the damage from lockdown? Then yeah its not the best policy.
ceilingcorner 6y ago
This (over) reaction makes me worried about a real pandemic, should one ever come.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
SamuelAdams 6y ago
Do you have sources saying the fatality rate is capped at 1%?
- chasd00 6y ago
  nothing is capped during an ongoing pandemic but yeah given we're seeing around 40% asymptomatic, 1% seems about right if not a little on the high side. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
acdha 6y ago
They are relatively unlikely to _die_ from COVID-19 (and please do not repeat the false claim that these are only “people already on the cusp of death” - the average victim is losing at least a decade of life based on actuarial data) but we know that there are a much greater percentage of people who will experience significant health problems, potentially with life-long impacts. Similarly, not everyone on or near campus is a health 19 year old and not every college student can afford to live in their own apartment or with a few healthy roommates. Universities have large numbers of staff of all ages, and no college town functions without a similar all-ages mix of people living near those students. The entire reason why there's so much pressure to re-open is because the lack of federal support means that city and state governments (at least 30 of the states have recent laws preventing them from running a budget deficit during a crisis) are desperate for the revenue generated by those students, and that is another way of saying that lots of people are literally banking on having those students be in contact with a fair chunk of the local economy.
- nimaco 6y ago
  I always hear "much greater percentage" type language when referring to long-term effects of COVID-19. Is there an actual number associated with this? Or is it more so guesswork
  - ls612 6y ago
    It’s by definition unfalsifiable (since the long term since March hasn’t arrived yet). Which makes it a great talking point for people looking to spread fear.
  - cellular 6y ago
    That's a good observation. I'll be on the lookout too now!
  - acdha 6y ago
    We know that there are people who take a long time to recover. This is pretty widely reported but we don’t know how long that will end up taking or what permanent impacts there are since it’s a new disease and treatment options are being rapidly pursued. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-dama... https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/long-term-symptoms-complications-of-covid-19/ https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/long-term-symp... https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/12/after-covid19-mental-neurological-effects-smolder/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/12/after-covid19-mental-neu... There are studies looking at permanent changes to various bodily systems - see for example, this one finding cardiac differences in recovered patients: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/... There are similar concerns for liver damage, reduced lung capacity, and neurological effects. Obviously it’s too soon to have high precision numbers for this or level of impact on the rest of someone’s life but it definitely means that the deniers’ favorite framing of the outcomes as 99% ok, 1% fatal is leaving out a lot for the sake of political correctness.
pjc50 6y ago
There are substantial (but still very unclear and lacking in stats) reports of long term health conditions among even young people after covid. Besides, by your argument, why should we even have bothered eradicating polio?
- matz1 6y ago
  Yes of course there will be, any diseases could cause long term health conditions in some of population. Flu too can cause long term damage too. But does it justify lockdown ? closing down school ? No. Especially when its still unclear and lacking in stats. >why should we even have bothered eradicating polio? Because it doesn't require locking down significant part of the population...
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    I remain skeptical of lockdowns, but it was very common to close down schools in areas where polio was spreading.
    - ls612 6y ago
      For the whole school year? Or for a couple weeks at the peak of the outbreak?
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        Not for the whole school year, no.
        erichocean 6y ago
        They didn't have Zoom either, so we don't know what they would have done if remote learning had been possible.
    - liability 6y ago
      Polio cripples 25-80% of kids that survived it, and kills 2-5% of them. Polio mainly spreads through kids. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelitis https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelit... Comparing covid-19 to polio with regard to the danger to kids is absurd.
nradov 6y ago
The best estimate of infection fatality rate is only 0.65%, not 1%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
InitialLastName 6y ago
The life expectancy of someone who is 75 is ~12 years [0]. Do we really want to argue that that decade of someone's life has no value because they're "on the cusp of death"? A 1% mortality rate in the US (if everyone gets it) is 4 million people. The US fought the longest war in their history over 3000 deaths. That all is ignoring permanent, non-fatal damage. There's reasonable evidence at this point that Covid infections do long-term damage, even to healthy people. I'm reasonably healthy and young, and neither my lungs nor my sense of smell have recovered fully since I had it in March. Are you really arguing to sacrifice the quality of life of millions of people at the altar of economic progress? [0] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
- mikem170 6y ago
  >There's reasonable evidence at this point that Covid infections do long-term damage, even to healthy people It is already a known fact that diseases with fever and/or lung components leave a small percentage of people with long term damage. Covid is like the flu in this regard. From https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... >COVID-19: Lasting damage to the lungs, heart, kidneys, brain and other organs is possible after a severe case of COVID-19. >Flu: Influenza complications can include inflammation of the heart (myocarditis), brain (encephalitis) or muscles (myositis, rhabdomyolysis) tissues, and multi-organ failure. It seems that people are surprised that this happens, and/or think covid is different in degree. The numbers I have seen so far are quite small and unsuprising, for example less than 50 people with long-lasting fever damage in a country of 50+ million. Do you have any sources claiming covid is different in this regard than any other fever/lung disease?
  - ipnon 6y ago
    Would you consider 60-78% to be a small percentage?[1] Do you have any evidence suggesting that the flu's rate of long-term cardiovascular consequences is similar? [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?guestAccessKey=698ebd4c-5c29-4069-9ef6-8839bcbc07de&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=072720 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...
randcraw 6y ago
Tomorrow you have a .0001% chance of dying. Care to increase that to 1%? (E.g. walking through a bad thunderstorm.) Or 10% (Walking through a battlefield or in the middle of a busy superhighway.) Then are you willing to live with that level of risk every day for the next nine months? In time, increased risk adds up to real danger. You also overlook the many people on campus who are over age 30 -- all profs, and most academic and support staff. Infected students will mix with them and increase their risk to a dangerous degree that none of them would welcome. Or are you thinking that you can run a college with only students and no staff? Dream on.

everydaydriver 6y ago

Even Cuomo mentioned in April that closing down colleges and having students return to live with, in some case, elderly relatives, may not have been the best public health policy.

matz1 6y ago
Is the policy is to have 0 death and to ignore the damage from lockdown? Then yeah its not the best policy.

ceilingcorner 6y ago

This (over) reaction makes me worried about a real pandemic, should one ever come.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

SamuelAdams 6y ago

Do you have sources saying the fatality rate is capped at 1%?

chasd00 6y ago
nothing is capped during an ongoing pandemic but yeah given we're seeing around 40% asymptomatic, 1% seems about right if not a little on the high side. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

acdha 6y ago

They are relatively unlikely to _die_ from COVID-19 (and please do not repeat the false claim that these are only “people already on the cusp of death” - the average victim is losing at least a decade of life based on actuarial data) but we know that there are a much greater percentage of people who will experience significant health problems, potentially with life-long impacts. Similarly, not everyone on or near campus is a health 19 year old and not every college student can afford to live in their own apartment or with a few healthy roommates. Universities have large numbers of staff of all ages, and no college town functions without a similar all-ages mix of people living near those students. The entire reason why there's so much pressure to re-open is because the lack of federal support means that city and state governments (at least 30 of the states have recent laws preventing them from running a budget deficit during a crisis) are desperate for the revenue generated by those students, and that is another way of saying that lots of people are literally banking on having those students be in contact with a fair chunk of the local economy.

nimaco 6y ago
I always hear "much greater percentage" type language when referring to long-term effects of COVID-19. Is there an actual number associated with this? Or is it more so guesswork
- ls612 6y ago
  It’s by definition unfalsifiable (since the long term since March hasn’t arrived yet). Which makes it a great talking point for people looking to spread fear.
- cellular 6y ago
  That's a good observation. I'll be on the lookout too now!
- acdha 6y ago
  We know that there are people who take a long time to recover. This is pretty widely reported but we don’t know how long that will end up taking or what permanent impacts there are since it’s a new disease and treatment options are being rapidly pursued. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-dama... https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/long-term-symptoms-complications-of-covid-19/ https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/long-term-symp... https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/12/after-covid19-mental-neurological-effects-smolder/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/12/after-covid19-mental-neu... There are studies looking at permanent changes to various bodily systems - see for example, this one finding cardiac differences in recovered patients: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/... There are similar concerns for liver damage, reduced lung capacity, and neurological effects. Obviously it’s too soon to have high precision numbers for this or level of impact on the rest of someone’s life but it definitely means that the deniers’ favorite framing of the outcomes as 99% ok, 1% fatal is leaving out a lot for the sake of political correctness.

pjc50 6y ago

There are substantial (but still very unclear and lacking in stats) reports of long term health conditions among even young people after covid. Besides, by your argument, why should we even have bothered eradicating polio?

matz1 6y ago
Yes of course there will be, any diseases could cause long term health conditions in some of population. Flu too can cause long term damage too. But does it justify lockdown ? closing down school ? No. Especially when its still unclear and lacking in stats. >why should we even have bothered eradicating polio? Because it doesn't require locking down significant part of the population...
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  I remain skeptical of lockdowns, but it was very common to close down schools in areas where polio was spreading.
  - ls612 6y ago
    For the whole school year? Or for a couple weeks at the peak of the outbreak?
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      Not for the whole school year, no.
      - erichocean 6y ago
        They didn't have Zoom either, so we don't know what they would have done if remote learning had been possible.
  - liability 6y ago
    Polio cripples 25-80% of kids that survived it, and kills 2-5% of them. Polio mainly spreads through kids. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelitis https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelit... Comparing covid-19 to polio with regard to the danger to kids is absurd.

nradov 6y ago

The best estimate of infection fatality rate is only 0.65%, not 1%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

InitialLastName 6y ago

The life expectancy of someone who is 75 is ~12 years [0]. Do we really want to argue that that decade of someone's life has no value because they're "on the cusp of death"? A 1% mortality rate in the US (if everyone gets it) is 4 million people. The US fought the longest war in their history over 3000 deaths. That all is ignoring permanent, non-fatal damage. There's reasonable evidence at this point that Covid infections do long-term damage, even to healthy people. I'm reasonably healthy and young, and neither my lungs nor my sense of smell have recovered fully since I had it in March. Are you really arguing to sacrifice the quality of life of millions of people at the altar of economic progress? [0] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

mikem170 6y ago
>There's reasonable evidence at this point that Covid infections do long-term damage, even to healthy people It is already a known fact that diseases with fever and/or lung components leave a small percentage of people with long term damage. Covid is like the flu in this regard. From https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... >COVID-19: Lasting damage to the lungs, heart, kidneys, brain and other organs is possible after a severe case of COVID-19. >Flu: Influenza complications can include inflammation of the heart (myocarditis), brain (encephalitis) or muscles (myositis, rhabdomyolysis) tissues, and multi-organ failure. It seems that people are surprised that this happens, and/or think covid is different in degree. The numbers I have seen so far are quite small and unsuprising, for example less than 50 people with long-lasting fever damage in a country of 50+ million. Do you have any sources claiming covid is different in this regard than any other fever/lung disease?
- ipnon 6y ago
  Would you consider 60-78% to be a small percentage?[1] Do you have any evidence suggesting that the flu's rate of long-term cardiovascular consequences is similar? [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?guestAccessKey=698ebd4c-5c29-4069-9ef6-8839bcbc07de&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=072720 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...

randcraw 6y ago

Tomorrow you have a .0001% chance of dying. Care to increase that to 1%? (E.g. walking through a bad thunderstorm.) Or 10% (Walking through a battlefield or in the middle of a busy superhighway.) Then are you willing to live with that level of risk every day for the next nine months? In time, increased risk adds up to real danger. You also overlook the many people on campus who are over age 30 -- all profs, and most academic and support staff. Infected students will mix with them and increase their risk to a dangerous degree that none of them would welcome. Or are you thinking that you can run a college with only students and no staff? Dream on.