7 ms·

Covid might actually result in permanent changes. Sucks for a lot of commercial real estate companies. WeWork is probably 100% done

reustle 6y ago
Here in Tokyo, I actually feel the opposite. WeWorks are quite busy again, but then again we didn't get hit as hard as the west. If I were a company with 100 employees, I'd get 50~ hotdesk spaces at my local coworking space chain and let employees come in up to 3 days a week whenever they feel like it.
- sirn 6y ago
  And that's quite surprising to hear. I also live in Tokyo, but given how packed Chuo line/Shinjuku station in the morning for the past few weeks, it feels like everyone has already gone back to their regular office hours routine. :(
  - Aeolun 6y ago
    It certainly feels like that huh? I’m thankfully still working from home, but we haven’t had a permanent work from home announcement yet.
    - sirn 6y ago
      Many people from our company prefers working from home as well, so I'm waiting to see how our HR reacts (we already have a 3 days WFH policy in place, but many people now kinda wish they could do permanent). However a large enterprise I'm working with already asked everyone to go back to office, in addition to never issuing WFH for their non-Tokyo office in the first place, which is kinda shame, because I wish they would be adopting with the "new normal", but instead they just go back to normal...
- onetimemanytime 6y ago
  In the sense its cheaper to outsource than having your own permanent offices? That's possible but major companies would probably have them meet/come at existing offices on alternate days.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    Commercial leases also tend to be fairly long-term. So a lot of companies are in the situation where they want to use their existing space in a way that's appropriate for the current situation. Which may be different from what they'd do if they were starting from a clean slate.
- C1sc0cat 6y ago
  Employees HATE hot desking - you'd also have to disinfect / clean much more rigorously similar to hospital standards.
  - asah 6y ago
    There are other reasons to dislike hot desking but COVID doesn't seem to be one of them: surface transmission is low risk, disinfecting a desk is easy and can be done by staff overnight, ...
    - C1sc0cat 6y ago
      OH yes but it would have to be done properly between uses and regular office cleaning would now have to be more rigours and costly than it is now. Probably closer to how a low risk hospital ward is cleaned than the perfunctory wipe - you might also have to use those sealed keyboards designed so they can be cleaned.
C1sc0cat 6y ago
Sucks for the worker who now has to bear the cost of providing office space and internet connections and your local network. Also longer term a lot of housing stock will become les desirable and new residential housing will become bigger and more expensive. Oh and H&S inspections will now have to be included
- noir_lord 6y ago
  I would happily provide that cost since I pay for all of that anyway to work from home. Dragging my arse into an open office during a pandemic has killed my motivation completely. I've gone from hard working to doing just enough not to get fired while I look for another job.
- adwww 6y ago
  On the other hand, it's probably boosted the value of more remote homes in otherwise desireable areas that have previously suffered for local employment opportunities. In the UK that might include beautiful countryside in places like Wales and Cornwall, or larger houses available in the North. Assuming the internet is fast enough!
- ghaff 6y ago
  I have never heard of a health and safety inspection for a home office. I'm quite sure mine would fail in multiple counts. But, yes, a small urban apartment is not going to be great for working from home. Especially without coffeeshops etc. open. Longer term, people who WFH indefinitely will either need to move to larger places or they'll want a co-working space that either they or their company pays for.
  - C1sc0cat 6y ago
    Its the law in the UK and from what others have said the USA as well
    - ghaff 6y ago
      Pretty much everyone I work with in the US worked from home at least some of the time even before this. I'd place a sizable bet that not one of them has ever had an OSHA inspector come to check out their home workplace.
CubsFan1060 6y ago
I also wonder the impact it'll have on retail and lunch places. A lot of small restaurants popped up around places with a lot of office workers. If those office workers are all WFH now, the previously desirable restaurant locations will become semi-worthless. On top of that, my guess is that WFH people will go out for lunch less often, so those restaurants won't just relocate to more residential areas, they (and their jobs), will just disappear.
- zrail 6y ago
  The restaurant owners who really want to make it work will hustle into delivery out of more affordable commercial kitchen space. If WFH sticks I won’t be surprised to see more commercial kitchens opening closer to residential areas.
  - __s 6y ago
    This could be nice. Often observed restaurants struggling around residential areas. WFH could help support more heterogeneous zoning, which would also reduce needing to own a car or use public transit
- jfoster 6y ago
  Would it be those ones that suffer? If some existing companies depart a central area, isn't it more likely that others would replace them in that area, rather than a geographically uniform reduction in occupancy?
- tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
  OTOH, isn't it pretty customary for any large office (let's say 1k+) to have a cafeteria, with presumably most employees eating there? Some of these will not want to cook lunch in the middle of work, and at least order takeout instead.
  - fzzzy 6y ago
    Yes, this is quite likely, but this is a titanic shift in the real estate market. Previously, you wanted a flashy storefront to attract customers so you put your kitchen in a fancy area. Now, you just need a kitchen on a back alley where delivery drivers can easily pull in to pick up their orders. I actually think it might cause a more efficient use of space overall. Lots of strip malls and even regular malls around the country are going to be converted into housing. If almost everybody does almost everything through delivery, there's no need to spend the money on prime real estate and extensive signage, which is very expensive.
ajross 6y ago
> WeWork is probably 100% done WeWork specifically was failing anyway, but it strikes me that in a world where permanent workplaces are deemphasized and workers are inherently more mobile, the market for a broker of temporary spaces is probably larger, not smaller.
- ghaff 6y ago
  For at least some who want to live in a city and are WFH full-time, it will make more sense to rent a co-working space than to move to a bigger apartment with a dedicated office.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    And I think there's a currently underserved niche of single/DINK people who would enjoy the freedom of remote work but don't want to spend the working day socially isolated.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      I'm not sure how underserved it is. I suspect that a lot of people just don't want to pay for a co-working space out of their own pockets and would normally content themselves with going to coffeeshops, etc. to get out of their apartments. Added: And people can make do with situations for a limited length of time whether working from their kitchen table or suffering through a 90 minute commute that aren't necessarily sustainable long-term.
      - asdff 6y ago
        Maybe there is some in between? Personally, I like the idea of the cafe as a local work space I can walk to from my apartment, but would love it if there was some guarantee of having a desk and niceties like a monitor or print/copy/fax/ship. I would pay some membership dues for a coop space like this.
- buboard 6y ago
  people dont want to pay 2 rents for no reason though, unless the rents are very cheap, so they won't be able to price these things high anymore. probably
asdff 6y ago
Wework was a parasite, it was done whenever landlords figured out they can just deal directly with the tenant and both would save an expense. However, there might be promise for a sort of coop remote work environment, not necessarily tied to your company, but shared by your neighbors. For instance, I would love to have a work station in the neighborhood, in walking distance to my apartment. I only need a desk, a monitor, decent internet connection, but things like having a more secure shipping address and print/copy/fax/package dropoff would be great perks. I would gladly pay a membership fee for a small, hyperlocal, neighborhood-based incarnation of wework, where I would be guaranteed to have a desk whenever I choose to walk the block or two and get some work done. Basically, the local cafe, but I always have a seat, a monitor, and basic fedex functions.

reustle 6y ago

Here in Tokyo, I actually feel the opposite. WeWorks are quite busy again, but then again we didn't get hit as hard as the west. If I were a company with 100 employees, I'd get 50~ hotdesk spaces at my local coworking space chain and let employees come in up to 3 days a week whenever they feel like it.

sirn 6y ago
And that's quite surprising to hear. I also live in Tokyo, but given how packed Chuo line/Shinjuku station in the morning for the past few weeks, it feels like everyone has already gone back to their regular office hours routine. :(
- Aeolun 6y ago
  It certainly feels like that huh? I’m thankfully still working from home, but we haven’t had a permanent work from home announcement yet.
  - sirn 6y ago
    Many people from our company prefers working from home as well, so I'm waiting to see how our HR reacts (we already have a 3 days WFH policy in place, but many people now kinda wish they could do permanent). However a large enterprise I'm working with already asked everyone to go back to office, in addition to never issuing WFH for their non-Tokyo office in the first place, which is kinda shame, because I wish they would be adopting with the "new normal", but instead they just go back to normal...
onetimemanytime 6y ago
In the sense its cheaper to outsource than having your own permanent offices? That's possible but major companies would probably have them meet/come at existing offices on alternate days.
- ghaff 6y ago
  Commercial leases also tend to be fairly long-term. So a lot of companies are in the situation where they want to use their existing space in a way that's appropriate for the current situation. Which may be different from what they'd do if they were starting from a clean slate.
C1sc0cat 6y ago
Employees HATE hot desking - you'd also have to disinfect / clean much more rigorously similar to hospital standards.
- asah 6y ago
  There are other reasons to dislike hot desking but COVID doesn't seem to be one of them: surface transmission is low risk, disinfecting a desk is easy and can be done by staff overnight, ...
  - C1sc0cat 6y ago
    OH yes but it would have to be done properly between uses and regular office cleaning would now have to be more rigours and costly than it is now. Probably closer to how a low risk hospital ward is cleaned than the perfunctory wipe - you might also have to use those sealed keyboards designed so they can be cleaned.

C1sc0cat 6y ago

Sucks for the worker who now has to bear the cost of providing office space and internet connections and your local network. Also longer term a lot of housing stock will become les desirable and new residential housing will become bigger and more expensive. Oh and H&S inspections will now have to be included

noir_lord 6y ago
I would happily provide that cost since I pay for all of that anyway to work from home. Dragging my arse into an open office during a pandemic has killed my motivation completely. I've gone from hard working to doing just enough not to get fired while I look for another job.
adwww 6y ago
On the other hand, it's probably boosted the value of more remote homes in otherwise desireable areas that have previously suffered for local employment opportunities. In the UK that might include beautiful countryside in places like Wales and Cornwall, or larger houses available in the North. Assuming the internet is fast enough!
ghaff 6y ago
I have never heard of a health and safety inspection for a home office. I'm quite sure mine would fail in multiple counts. But, yes, a small urban apartment is not going to be great for working from home. Especially without coffeeshops etc. open. Longer term, people who WFH indefinitely will either need to move to larger places or they'll want a co-working space that either they or their company pays for.
- C1sc0cat 6y ago
  Its the law in the UK and from what others have said the USA as well
  - ghaff 6y ago
    Pretty much everyone I work with in the US worked from home at least some of the time even before this. I'd place a sizable bet that not one of them has ever had an OSHA inspector come to check out their home workplace.

CubsFan1060 6y ago

I also wonder the impact it'll have on retail and lunch places. A lot of small restaurants popped up around places with a lot of office workers. If those office workers are all WFH now, the previously desirable restaurant locations will become semi-worthless. On top of that, my guess is that WFH people will go out for lunch less often, so those restaurants won't just relocate to more residential areas, they (and their jobs), will just disappear.

zrail 6y ago
The restaurant owners who really want to make it work will hustle into delivery out of more affordable commercial kitchen space. If WFH sticks I won’t be surprised to see more commercial kitchens opening closer to residential areas.
- __s 6y ago
  This could be nice. Often observed restaurants struggling around residential areas. WFH could help support more heterogeneous zoning, which would also reduce needing to own a car or use public transit
jfoster 6y ago
Would it be those ones that suffer? If some existing companies depart a central area, isn't it more likely that others would replace them in that area, rather than a geographically uniform reduction in occupancy?
tgsovlerkhgsel 6y ago
OTOH, isn't it pretty customary for any large office (let's say 1k+) to have a cafeteria, with presumably most employees eating there? Some of these will not want to cook lunch in the middle of work, and at least order takeout instead.
- fzzzy 6y ago
  Yes, this is quite likely, but this is a titanic shift in the real estate market. Previously, you wanted a flashy storefront to attract customers so you put your kitchen in a fancy area. Now, you just need a kitchen on a back alley where delivery drivers can easily pull in to pick up their orders. I actually think it might cause a more efficient use of space overall. Lots of strip malls and even regular malls around the country are going to be converted into housing. If almost everybody does almost everything through delivery, there's no need to spend the money on prime real estate and extensive signage, which is very expensive.

ajross 6y ago

> WeWork is probably 100% done WeWork specifically was failing anyway, but it strikes me that in a world where permanent workplaces are deemphasized and workers are inherently more mobile, the market for a broker of temporary spaces is probably larger, not smaller.

ghaff 6y ago
For at least some who want to live in a city and are WFH full-time, it will make more sense to rent a co-working space than to move to a bigger apartment with a dedicated office.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  And I think there's a currently underserved niche of single/DINK people who would enjoy the freedom of remote work but don't want to spend the working day socially isolated.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    I'm not sure how underserved it is. I suspect that a lot of people just don't want to pay for a co-working space out of their own pockets and would normally content themselves with going to coffeeshops, etc. to get out of their apartments. Added: And people can make do with situations for a limited length of time whether working from their kitchen table or suffering through a 90 minute commute that aren't necessarily sustainable long-term.
    - asdff 6y ago
      Maybe there is some in between? Personally, I like the idea of the cafe as a local work space I can walk to from my apartment, but would love it if there was some guarantee of having a desk and niceties like a monitor or print/copy/fax/ship. I would pay some membership dues for a coop space like this.
buboard 6y ago
people dont want to pay 2 rents for no reason though, unless the rents are very cheap, so they won't be able to price these things high anymore. probably

asdff 6y ago

Wework was a parasite, it was done whenever landlords figured out they can just deal directly with the tenant and both would save an expense. However, there might be promise for a sort of coop remote work environment, not necessarily tied to your company, but shared by your neighbors. For instance, I would love to have a work station in the neighborhood, in walking distance to my apartment. I only need a desk, a monitor, decent internet connection, but things like having a more secure shipping address and print/copy/fax/package dropoff would be great perks. I would gladly pay a membership fee for a small, hyperlocal, neighborhood-based incarnation of wework, where I would be guaranteed to have a desk whenever I choose to walk the block or two and get some work done. Basically, the local cafe, but I always have a seat, a monitor, and basic fedex functions.