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> being mugged Mugging is a violent crime and should be policed - but studies also show that people vastly overestimate their risk of being mugged. It definite

by MiroF 6y ago

> being mugged Mugging is a violent crime and should be policed - but studies also show that people vastly overestimate their risk of being mugged. It definitely happens, but I am very skeptical that "broken window" policing addresses these sorts of violent crimes. A better move would be to de-densify poverty with mixed income housing, provide support resources, and build trust with police so people will report violent crimes. > having their car broken into Cars being broken in to? That's a different matter - I really don't think we have the capacity to police this in any meaningful way, it's a problem endemic to urban neighborhoods and is incredibly hard to police in a way that isn't super disproportionate. Don't leave valuables in your car, don't lock your doors - they'll just open, rifle through, and leave. I've had my car rifled through tens of times and the most they ever got was some quarters I left in there. The utilitarian in me feels like being exposed daily to random patdowns and harassments and having people jump out on you is much worse than that. Nobody should live in a neighborhood where the law enforcement doesn't treat them with dignity, just because of the color of their skin or their class background. You can't cleanly separate what crimes you choose to care about from the policies in place. When voters tell elected officials "decrease car breakins, that's what impacts my vote" that'll translate to these disproportionate policies because the communities being policed do not have the power to sway the policy and it is easy to hide the impact of the policing from the voters.

mikeappell 6y ago
> Don't leave valuables in your car, don't lock your doors - they'll just open, rifle through, and leave. I've had my car rifled through tens of times and the most they ever got was some quarters I left in there. Not sure how much of an issue this still is, but thieves used to steal airbags. That's a lot more expensive and a PITA to replace.
- MiroF 6y ago
  Based on a quick google, you have about a ~0.01% chance of your airbag being stolen in a given year. How many black people should we stop and frisk to solve that problem, I'm a little rusty on the math?
  - nitrogen 6y ago
    Just because the original policing tactic that spawned this thread is abhorrent doesn't mean we can't discuss other possibilities here. More on-foot friendly patrols (which should be perfectly doable given much higher density in cities), for example. Or maybe police actually trying to catch actual criminals instead of just acting like insurance agents.
    - MiroF 6y ago
      Here's what happens: Voters vote for someone who says they will do this thing "more on-foot friendly patrols", "catch actual criminals". Police obviously continue what they've always been doing and stop & frisk, harass minorities, etc, because that's generally what happens when you stuff poor neighborhoods full of cops from a completely different background to the community they are policing. Everyone pretends this is not what is happening until some particularly blatant instance brings it to light. Turning up the pressure to catch stupid, small crimes while letting actual large problems (like consistent theft of wages that outnumbers money lost to robbery 3 to 1) will lead to stupid solutions.
      - Dylan16807 6y ago
        Okay, so voting like that won't lead to friendly patrols. That doesn't mean friendly patrols are a bad idea.
        MiroF 6y ago
        > friendly patrols are a bad idea. Absolutely and I think there are models of policing that reduce petty crime and obviously people would rather have less petty crime than more. We are all in agreement here. I just want people to be aware that the policing of their imagination is not always the policing of reality and oftentimes what your gut instinct tells you might work will have pretty large and distorted negative impacts. I really do think we're all on the same side here. Nobody likes crime and nobody likes police excess. The problem is just that sometimes where we grew up and what experiences we've had can lead us to underestimate one impact and overestimate another.
k12sosse 6y ago
I used to lock my car door. Then they cut open my soft top and slipped inside to steal my $4 in coins and a USB charger. My good driving record has my deductable to $0 - thank gosh - it was a $4k+ repair. Now I just leave nothing of value inside the vehicle - even removed my glovebox (another thief ruined the locking mechanism trying to get it out).
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I guess this is just a mystifying perspective to me. Car theft is impossible to entirely eradicate, I try to avoid showing valuables too, but I'd never live in an area where I expected my car to be broken into unless I had no other options. Maybe it's fine if other people are honestly okay with it?
- MiroF 6y ago
  > I'd never live in an area where I expected my car to be broken into unless I had no other options I live in a very nice area of DC, cars would get rifled through every ~2 months or so, very late at night and they would move very quickly. Many people have decided that it is worth their while to live there despite this minor inconvenience. If you don't want to live there, that's fine - but please don't vote for people who are going to institute stop & frisk and heavy policing of poor neighborhoods. Those policies don't even work to stop it - the cause is large wealth disparity in a small geographic region. You may have the choice to live in a certain area, many do not have the choice to live in areas where they are subject to demeaning patdowns and stops.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    Sure, that makes sense to me. I will certainly avoid moving to cities where people are okay with crimes, so I won't have an opportunity to vote in their elections.
    - MiroF 6y ago
      > avoid moving to cities where people are okay with crimes Pretty much every city is moving to less aggressive policing of petty crime largely because of its pretty blatant failure and the substantial negative impacts it has. Generally sounds like you'll probably want to stay in suburbia.
      - anjc 6y ago
        > I live in a very nice area of DC, cars would get rifled through every ~2 months or so > Generally sounds like you'll probably want to stay in suburbia. It rather sounds like you have a strange perspective on urban living. I can't speak for the US, but it isn't normal in any city in Europe for your car to be rifled through every 2 months in a nice area of a city. It isn't even normal for bad areas of cities. If it happens once in a person's life it would be bad luck.
MaxBarraclough 6y ago
> don't lock your doors Will this affect your insurance if the car is stolen?
- MiroF 6y ago
  > Will this affect your insurance if the car is stolen? Do car thefts of this form even really happen anymore? How would they even prove the doors were unlocked?
  - nickff 6y ago
    When my car was stolen, my insurer asked whether I had locked the doors and enabled the security system. I assume this is standard procedure. I am not sure whether a negative answer would have affected my claim.
    - MaxBarraclough 6y ago
      I suspect it would have. I believe insurance plans can have exclusions for things like this. Not all that unreasonable - to consider the extreme case, would you want to insure someone who never uses their locks?

by MiroF 6y ago

mikeappell 6y ago

> Don't leave valuables in your car, don't lock your doors - they'll just open, rifle through, and leave. I've had my car rifled through tens of times and the most they ever got was some quarters I left in there. Not sure how much of an issue this still is, but thieves used to steal airbags. That's a lot more expensive and a PITA to replace.

MiroF 6y ago
Based on a quick google, you have about a ~0.01% chance of your airbag being stolen in a given year. How many black people should we stop and frisk to solve that problem, I'm a little rusty on the math?
- nitrogen 6y ago
  Just because the original policing tactic that spawned this thread is abhorrent doesn't mean we can't discuss other possibilities here. More on-foot friendly patrols (which should be perfectly doable given much higher density in cities), for example. Or maybe police actually trying to catch actual criminals instead of just acting like insurance agents.
  - MiroF 6y ago
    Here's what happens: Voters vote for someone who says they will do this thing "more on-foot friendly patrols", "catch actual criminals". Police obviously continue what they've always been doing and stop & frisk, harass minorities, etc, because that's generally what happens when you stuff poor neighborhoods full of cops from a completely different background to the community they are policing. Everyone pretends this is not what is happening until some particularly blatant instance brings it to light. Turning up the pressure to catch stupid, small crimes while letting actual large problems (like consistent theft of wages that outnumbers money lost to robbery 3 to 1) will lead to stupid solutions.
    - Dylan16807 6y ago
      Okay, so voting like that won't lead to friendly patrols. That doesn't mean friendly patrols are a bad idea.
      - MiroF 6y ago
        > friendly patrols are a bad idea. Absolutely and I think there are models of policing that reduce petty crime and obviously people would rather have less petty crime than more. We are all in agreement here. I just want people to be aware that the policing of their imagination is not always the policing of reality and oftentimes what your gut instinct tells you might work will have pretty large and distorted negative impacts. I really do think we're all on the same side here. Nobody likes crime and nobody likes police excess. The problem is just that sometimes where we grew up and what experiences we've had can lead us to underestimate one impact and overestimate another.

k12sosse 6y ago

I used to lock my car door. Then they cut open my soft top and slipped inside to steal my $4 in coins and a USB charger. My good driving record has my deductable to $0 - thank gosh - it was a $4k+ repair. Now I just leave nothing of value inside the vehicle - even removed my glovebox (another thief ruined the locking mechanism trying to get it out).

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

I guess this is just a mystifying perspective to me. Car theft is impossible to entirely eradicate, I try to avoid showing valuables too, but I'd never live in an area where I expected my car to be broken into unless I had no other options. Maybe it's fine if other people are honestly okay with it?

MiroF 6y ago
> I'd never live in an area where I expected my car to be broken into unless I had no other options I live in a very nice area of DC, cars would get rifled through every ~2 months or so, very late at night and they would move very quickly. Many people have decided that it is worth their while to live there despite this minor inconvenience. If you don't want to live there, that's fine - but please don't vote for people who are going to institute stop & frisk and heavy policing of poor neighborhoods. Those policies don't even work to stop it - the cause is large wealth disparity in a small geographic region. You may have the choice to live in a certain area, many do not have the choice to live in areas where they are subject to demeaning patdowns and stops.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  Sure, that makes sense to me. I will certainly avoid moving to cities where people are okay with crimes, so I won't have an opportunity to vote in their elections.
  - MiroF 6y ago
    > avoid moving to cities where people are okay with crimes Pretty much every city is moving to less aggressive policing of petty crime largely because of its pretty blatant failure and the substantial negative impacts it has. Generally sounds like you'll probably want to stay in suburbia.
    - anjc 6y ago
      > I live in a very nice area of DC, cars would get rifled through every ~2 months or so > Generally sounds like you'll probably want to stay in suburbia. It rather sounds like you have a strange perspective on urban living. I can't speak for the US, but it isn't normal in any city in Europe for your car to be rifled through every 2 months in a nice area of a city. It isn't even normal for bad areas of cities. If it happens once in a person's life it would be bad luck.

MaxBarraclough 6y ago

> don't lock your doors Will this affect your insurance if the car is stolen?

MiroF 6y ago
> Will this affect your insurance if the car is stolen? Do car thefts of this form even really happen anymore? How would they even prove the doors were unlocked?
- nickff 6y ago
  When my car was stolen, my insurer asked whether I had locked the doors and enabled the security system. I assume this is standard procedure. I am not sure whether a negative answer would have affected my claim.
  - MaxBarraclough 6y ago
    I suspect it would have. I believe insurance plans can have exclusions for things like this. Not all that unreasonable - to consider the extreme case, would you want to insure someone who never uses their locks?