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China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong
- runawaybottle 6y agoGood time to do it since everyone is focused on covid.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- scottLobster 6y agoMore than that, Xi has been ginning up Chinese nationalist sentiment for months now as a way of distracting the Chinese populace from the economic hit they've taken/a supposed reason for their suffering. Hence all the conspiracy theories about COVID being starting by the US Army and such. If they're going to start projecting that nationalist sentiment outward, Hong Kong is low-hanging fruit.
- amelius 6y agoWho is next? Taiwan?
- ericmay 6y agoI think this would lead to an actual war. Taiwan has weapons, its own military, etc. Hong Kong doesn't. There will be protests, however. Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. It's so tragic.
- onetimemanytime 6y agoAgree, Hong Kong fate was sealed in 1990's. But Taiwan will spark a war, and for good reason. Bullets and bombs cannot be ignored and China is not popular in that area. So they'll leave Taiwan alone, IMO, for decades, until /when /if China is sure that they can overpower US military.
- foepys 6y agoNobody, will ever overpower the US military. Not because the US is particularly advanced but because of their nukes. The same applies to the Chinese and Russian militaries and most likely all other nations with nuclear weapons.
- onetimemanytime 6y agowrong. USA will not use nukes to help Taiwan. The other side has nukes too and can easily point them to major US cities.
- jki275 6y agoNor will the Chinese attack Taiwan, because Taiwan is supported by a nuclear power.
- foepys 6y agoThen you are not overpowering the US military but the US diplomacy and its softpower. Any direct war between nuclear powers will eventually end with the use of nuclear weapons unless one side stands down.
- nickik 6y agoHong Kong fate was sealed when China turned from the Soviets to the US as a strategic partner and started to adopt non-idiotic economic policies.
- basementcat 6y agoI think it is possible to unify China without bloodshed and war. The way to do it is via social media and the ballot box. Recent history has shown that it is possible to effect major policy changes in representative democracies around the world in this fashion.
- DeonPenny 6y agoYou are talking as if those would happy in a communist country. It hasn't really worked out in western countries that well we people tried to do this
- polotics 6y agoDo you mean to say Xi's crony communist party would somehow get voted out of power on the mainland? (This is a question mark)
- nickik 6y ago> Recent history has shown Or has it shown that a losing party will grasp at any straw to explain why they failed? Advertisement has been a major part of democracies for 100s of years.
- ginko 6y agoFrom what I can tell the CCP would never allow a democratic vote on this issue. Even for unification. From their POV eventual reunification is something the populace of Taiwan has no say on.
- jki275 6y agoFrom their point of view, there is no need for "reunification", as Taiwan is simply a rogue province that will eventually be forced back into line.
- AnimalMuppet 6y agoI agree, but this is kind of self-defeating behavior by the CCP. Human nature being what it is, saying "We own you and you have no say in the matter" elicits a response of "Oh, yeah? We'll see about that". If Taiwan is ever going to unite with China peacefully, it is going to come after China changes its stance.
- jooize 6y ago> Nevermind potential U.S. involvement. What does this mean?
- kindatrue 6y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
- ericmay 6y agoThe U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. For China this is the great unknown. Obviously they could retake the island on their own, albeit suffering casualties, but the question is what U.S. involvement might look like. It could be anything ranging from saber rattling D.C. and not a single shot fired to full-scale war dragging in regional allies (South Korea, Australia, Japan, and others) in the ultimate raison d'etre to try to stop the rise of China. It could break out into a regional war with China and North Korea versus the U.S. and allies who decide it is a fight worth fighting - Japan and South Korea most likely. I think most likely the Chinese will focus on a publicity campaign unless the U.S. is in a severely (historical not seen in the last 100+ years) weakened position, because while annoying, it's not worth the risk of such a huge war. You can basically change a country through influence, so why not just wait and go through things that way?
- OldHand2018 6y ago> The U.S. may come to the aid of Taiwan. The big question is to what extent. All pre-revolution government debt has been in default since the revolution. China claims it is the responsibility of Taiwan and Taiwan claims it is the responsibility of China. They owe many trillions to bondholders all over the world. If the two merge, they can't dodge the claims anymore and still be part of the world financial system. It will have to be negotiated, and US law allows the government to collect on behalf of American bondholders. Any settlement will be very painful for China if they insist on taking Taiwan by force.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
- petre 6y agoHere's an insightful analysis about a hypothetical China/Taiwan war: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/taiwan-maoist-military-china-navy-south-china-sea/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/17/taiwan-maoist-military-...
- altgeek 6y agoThe PRC is playing the long game. Decades from now, they'll take the ROC without firing a shot. It will be through economic integration leading to a vote. I know plenty of businesses in Taiwan that set up factories right across the way in Xiamen. It's been well underway for the past 20 years.
- blueblisters 6y agoMainland China is already Taiwan's largest trading partner by a big margin (followed by the US at second place). A lot of Taiwanese migrate to Mainland for better jobs. I am more curious what would happen, if say 50% of Taiwanese agree to some sort of reunification with Mainland through a referendum? How would the US react especially given the amount of US military resources and other strategic interests in Taiwan?
- mytailorisrich 6y agoThe US's interest in Taiwan is part of a divide and conquer strategy. Nothing less, nothing more. The current political regime in mainland China is actually the best thing for the US and a transition to democracy would be bad because that would make reunification more likely, at least possible, and it would take away much of the arguments the US use against China. If the nationalists had defeated the communists and the mainland and Taiwan had remained united, I doubt that the tensions between China and the US would be less than they currently are, for example, because these tensions are not caused by the political regime in Beijing, they are much more profound. In any case, the US cannot realistically intervene militarily directly against China whatever happens.
- Robotbeat 6y agoThat’s pretty silly and unfounded. The US is happy to trade with Europe, which is overall more economically powerful than the US but is democratic.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
- microcolonel 6y agoWeren't they signalling that this whole time? Weren't the civilized people of Hong Kong out in the streets by the millions protesting for sovereignty most of last year? Anyway, It's amazing how much wealth and prosperity they're willing to erase for the control. Hong Kong's actual functioning legal system was a huge part of why it was the conduit to China for civilized nations; now what is there?
- Proven 6y agoThey (CCP) would gain power and prestige, that's what matters to the government of China. How many lives and how much wealth was destroyed all over China under Mao? The party still celebrates him.
- ezVoodoo 6y ago"Civilized protesters of HK" set a man on fire because he dared to express his own opinion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32kz1YNPD_M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32kz1YNPD_M
- SeeTheTruth 6y agoThe brutality pro China forces have already shown in Hong Kong will only get worse if they take over. It's time to face China has become a massive problem. We said "never again" after the Holocaust - yet we have a country with concentration camps, brutal oppression and denial of human rights... And they've invaded terirtory they see as "their" (Tibet). When will this end? When will the world stand up to them? And before any "whataboutism" trolls respond with "but the US?!" - all countries have problems - but China is truly different. Let's keep the conversation focused without feeding the trolls. What can the world do about China?
- runawaybottle 6y agoIt’s appeasement in a new form. We are all acting like corporate Neville Chamberlains. A lot of bad behavior is truly subjective, but the stuff China is doing is not. Any arguments against that suggestion usually fall under the realm of moral relativism, e.g ‘But what about what all the shit America does?’. We’ll discuss America in America’s in own thread, there’s plenty there to rip apart. Quite frankly, the Chinese people demonstrably have a weak value system when it comes to these issues, exemplified by inaction (what are these people willing protest? Is it a matter of willingness or is it entirely possible they see nothing wrong with the camps or the subjugation of Hong Kong?). The criticism certainly won’t come from within China, so it must come from outside.
- tekkk 6y agoYour comment reminded me of a video, where a man who had lived in China for many years explained that in China the default behavior is to not to care or get involved. So that's why something as audacious as human trafficking can happen in a broad daylight, and rarely a bystander gets involved. It doesn't mean of course that everyone in China is like this, but I guess there's a seed of truth in that.
- runawaybottle 6y agoChina being the largest case study of the Bystander effect sounds quite plausible. I would also love to get some smart polling data from the Chinese public, and by that I mean not what America did in the 2016 election where we couldn’t obfuscate the questions to extract real sentiment. Ask them a question like ‘do you feel people in Hong Kong think they are better than mainlanders?’, and then I think we’ll start to expose some reality.
- haunter 6y agoNot that I'm arguing for China but that was always the case since the takover right? I mean that it will happen before 2047 or sooner as a part of a gradual change >In accordance with the "one country, two systems" principle agreed between the UK and China, the socialist system of China would not be practised in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), and Hong Kong's previous capitalist system and its way of life would remain unchanged for a period of 50 years until 2047 [0] 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration
- koenigdavidmj 6y agoYes, and we all knew this was coming...then. In the events of the past few months, however, the UK appealed to China to keep their word, and the response that this was no longer a British concern. So we know they intend to do whatever they can.
- chaostheory 6y agoThere was a huge wave of immigration from HK in the 90s because of this. Children of these families resented their parents. Hopefully, this vindicates the parents. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another wave of immigration away from HK. Of course, the poor and uneducated are trapped.
- rorykoehler 6y agoJust a small tip... Outward immigration is called emigration.
- djohnston 6y agoThe Chinese takeover of HK will be an excellent case study for the thesis from Why Nation's Fail
- naringas 6y agobecause bigger nation invades?
- djohnston 6y agoNo, because one has a more or less free market with inclusive economic and political institutions, and the other is China
- djohnston 6y agoAnd if the thesis holds, the erosion and replacement of these institutions by the central state's preferred methods should result in a drastic reduction in prosperity for HK.
- centimeter 6y agoBeing an extremely British culture, HK residents are almost entirely pacified and disarmed. If you want to have inclusive economic and political institutions, you need to pair that with an extremely bristly population to make China's strategies economically unviable.
- eanzenberg 6y agoCome orange man, more tariffs.
- omniscient_oce 6y agoIs this hackernews or politics news?
- nerbert 6y agoIt’s China brute forcing the HK political system to take control.
- omniscient_oce 6y agoI don't mind the occasional post that is big news like this could be, but it feels like the number of politics posts has grown a lot lately. Most of it US-centric
- mcphage 6y agoWell, here's one that's not.
- sieabahlpark 6y agoI've honestly felt the same way. I started reading HN a few years ago and it's gone slightly towards how reddit operates. Also noticed the CCP sympathizers are more numerous now than when the political posts started.
- omniscient_oce 6y agoI haven't seen any yet.
- lostmsu 6y agoYou can just flag all non-important political news. That's what I do. This one is definitely worth an exception.
- omniscient_oce 6y agoAgreed. Also I'm kind of new so I didn't realise you could, cheers for the info.
- justaguy88 6y agoI thought the UK might complain a little louder about this
- scottLobster 6y agoEven if they did it would just be a strongly worded letter. The only way I can see to stop an eventual Chinese takeover of Hong Kong would be a military intervention, which would amount to an invasion of the Chinese Mainland. Which means not only taking and holding Hong Kong before Chinese forces can secure it but suppressing their Naval, Air and Rocket forces. Oh and they're a nuclear power. For better or worse no one's wading into that clusterfuck in the name of civil rights, and no one outside the US has the force projection capacity to even consider it. Maybe we'll see some economic sanctions, but from an ideological perspective the CCP cannot and will not allow Hong Kong to leave China, it would invalidate a cornerstone of their existence (their ability to keep China united, a very rare historical anomaly).
- mannykannot 6y agoLet's be realistic about what the UK can do here, especially in light of its need to deal with the consequences of brexit on its trading relationships.
- centimeter 6y agoThe UK is weak (both in terms of their collective mentality and their influence on international politics), and they have an aggressive self-hate over their history of successful colonization efforts. This is what they decided they wanted for Hong Kong - they knew what would happen when they voluntarily ceded control of HK to China.
- ericmay 6y ago> This is what they decided they wanted for Hong Kong Historical revisionism much? China was prepared to come and take Hong Kong, the only thing that preserved the current state was a deal that allowed China to save face. The U.K. had no ability to defend Hong Kong - they actually got a much better deal than could have been expected, with China worrying about its international reputation at the time. The Chinese could have walked right in to Hong Kong and taken it much, much more quickly.
- ghostpepper 6y agoInteresting that a slightly reworded version of the same article is also currently on the Washington Post home page. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-signals-plan-to-take-full-control-of-hong-kong-realigning-citys-status/2020/05/21/2c3850ee-9b48-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-sign... The headlines are different as well: China signals plan to take full control of Hong Kong vs China to impose sweeping national security law in Hong Kong, bypassing city’s legislature
- runawaybottle 6y agoHey, you know, gotta keep that a Chinese market open for when WaPo expands into the mainland. I don’t like click-baity headlines, but it has it’s uses judiciously. This is an issue the general public can easily ignore or not understand, so in this case you need a more provocative headline to emphasize the magnitude of the implications. ‘US arms funding Saudi led destruction of Yemen, thousands dead’ vs ‘New Saudi-US arms deal, possibly being used in conflict in Yemen’
- sieabahlpark 6y agoWaPo seems to sugar coat it? Of all the headlines to not sensationalize this seems like an easy one to take advantage of.
- mcphage 6y ago> Interesting that a slightly reworded version of the same article is also currently on the Washington Post home page. The byline of the linked article is: "Anna Fifield and Shibani Mahtani, The Washington Post"
- ghostpepper 6y agoYeah that was how I discovered it. I think it's commonly accepted for other papers to run stories this way as long as they're attributed, but I just wonder when and by whom the edits to the body and headline were made by.
- partingshots 6y ago
- koenigdavidmj 6y agoThey've been able to get away with whatever they wanted in Xinjiang because it has no bearing on their economy. But HK has ties to the west, and enough people old enough to remember something resembling liberal government. HK's only play at this point seems to be the Northern Ireland strategy--be as ungovernable as possible, and rely on China having a bit of shame. I don't see that working, though--the UK in Northern Ireland had a reputation to maintain. I fear that turning HK into a prison camp would do to China's reputation exactly what they want it to do.
- free_rms 6y agoPoint of fact, colonization by the British wasn't exactly 'liberal government'. Anywhere. In HK's case, they only got their limited democracy in the last couple years immediately before handover to China. The 150 years prior, not so much. Back in the 1980s, while Thatcher and Reagan were preaching about freedom, british-ruled HK had less freedom than they do now under the bad guy commies. EDIT: This is not to cheerlead a regression of rights in HK. I'm just saying that being an imperial subject, being brutally put down every few decades when revolting, that's not some liberal utopia.
- alehul 6y agoWhat are some examples of British-ruled HK citizens having less freedom than today’s PRC citizens? From my limited knowledge, the government of Hong Kong was quite liberal, which created its large economic inequality, low literacy rate, and high spot in the freedom index today. Many would argue it was too liberal in some senses.
- hker 6y agoNote that Beijing limited Hong Kong’s democracy since the 60s, threatening invasion. See the following articles for the historical context [1][2]: "Even in the '60s and '70s, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London attempted to introduce democracy and free elections only to be told by Beijing, including by Prime Minister Zhou Enlai, that under no circumstances would [China] tolerate a democratically elected Hong Kong because they saw that as the first step toward independence," she said. [1] "These documents … show that not only were the Brits mulling granting Hong Kong self-governance in the 1950s; it was the Chinese government under Mao Zedong who quashed these plans, threatening invasion." [2] [1]: https://asiasociety.org/new-york/why-didnt-britain-democratize-hong-kong https://asiasociety.org/new-york/why-didnt-britain-democrati... [2]: https://qz.com/279013/the-secret-history-of-hong-kongs-stillborn-democracy/ https://qz.com/279013/the-secret-history-of-hong-kongs-still...
- ezVoodoo 6y agoUSA signals plan to take full control of New York City?
- SubiculumCode 6y ago'USA signals plan to take full control of Native American Nations' is a closer analogy....and just as unethical.
- ezVoodoo 6y agoIt seems you think the land of HongKong has been part of UK and swam to China from Europe? Have you received any history or geography education ever? Westerners took the American land from the native Americans, the same way they took HK from China in year 1841. Before that date, HK has always been Chinese territory. So, no, 'USA signals plan to take full control of Native American Nations' is an awful analog.
- _iyig 6y agoGiven the historical, cultural, legal, and linguistic differences between Beijing and Hong Kong, perhaps the UK and Ireland are a better analogy here. "London signals plan to take full control of Dublin" would not go over well. Or Belfast, for that matter: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_rule_(Northern_Ireland) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_rule_(Northern_Ireland) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles
- mdorazio 6y agoYour argument is completely ridiculous. Look at a map from 1841 and compare it today. By your logic, every difference in territory that's occurred over the intervening 180 years is invalid and should be reverted. Better tell Europe they need to redraw all their maps.
- ezVoodoo 6y agoYou are justifying invasion because that is history which just happened. Ridiculous indeed.
- centimeter 6y agoI am a US citizen who resided in HK for 5 years, until this last December. I think Hong Kongers' efforts to resist increasing Chinese encroachment, while admirable, are probably futile. They are simply too British. British culture is completely incompatible with any kind of successful resistance against a hostile government. They are too scared of weapons and (justified, defensive) violence to make Chinese occupation unviable. The absolute most extreme behavior we saw from protestors was thrown bricks and the occasional molotov cocktail. Almost none of the destruction was targeted at Chinese government facilities in HK - instead they went after easy HK-controlled targets like road equipment and the airport. This is not a winning strategy.
- runawaybottle 6y agoNon violent, persistent, civil disobedience has worked in modern history. It just takes serious dedication, but the current world has a lot more tools in place to broadcast the narrative. Those Hong Kong protests can never stop.
- petre 6y agoNot against the CCP. Tank man was allegedy executed by firing squad two weeks after the event.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoAllegedly, though. If protest didn't matter at all, it wouldn't be merely alleged; the CCP would just publicly say "yeah we shot him and we'll shoot you next if you bug us about it".
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- nickik 6y ago> Non violent, persistent, civil disobedience has worked in modern history. Against the British empire in places that Britain didn't actually make much money anymore.
- OkGoDoIt 6y agoOn Reddit there are some pretty intense videos and other first-hand accounts of democratic-leaning lawmakers in Hong Kong being forcibly removed from government buildings. I’m surprised this isn’t getting more press. But also it’s pretty clear China is doing this now during coronavirus since the world has bigger things to care about at the moment
- hker 6y agoA news reporting [1] and video [2] of the incident. [1]: https://hongkongfp.com/2020/05/08/shocking-unlawful-illegitimate-hong-kong-democrats-angered-after-pro-beijing-lawmaker-asserts-control-of-committee/ https://hongkongfp.com/2020/05/08/shocking-unlawful-illegiti... [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zxtYUFl5Hg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zxtYUFl5Hg
- woutr_be 6y agoSome background on why this is happening; The legislature was supposed to elect a new chairman in October last year, pan-democratic lawmakers have been blocking this election by filibustering any meeting that tried to elect a new chairman. The goal was to block this until the elections in September this year. About a month ago, China spoke out against this, and since then, the legislature has been trying to push this through. Evicted lawmakers tried to physical prevent this from happening, which is why they were removed from the room. I don't really agree with the actions of both parties, but this is the back story. They weren't just forcefully removed out of nowhere, there were actions that led up to it.
- av_engr 6y agoFrom my understanding, they were filibustering because a pro-china legislator was the former chairwomen of the internal committee (a group that review policies before submitted to vote in general legislature), and for her to be re-elected, she must resign first. Then pro-china party realized their fuck up and caused a whole drama. According to the rulebook, the vice chairman (pan-democratic) is supposed to hold the meeting till new chair is elected. The democratic legislators saw this as a chance to filibuster because pro-china legislator had an agenda to push for establishing the National Anthem Act. In this case, the filibuster forces the pro-china party into a losing situation. The resolution was that the pro-china legislators seek "legal advice" from some government legal counselor and directly broke the filibuster by having the general legislature chairman (pro-china) appoint a new "chairman"(who happens to be pro-china) to hold the new election. Of course, this is highly illegal, but it went through anyways. Ultimately, it led to democratic legislator surrounding chairman podium and protesting the illegal filibuster breaking, which resulted in being forcefully removed from the legislature hall.
- Medicalidiot 6y agoThe other day when HK leaders were dragged out of the legislative building was surreal. It's something that I would have thought would only be seen by a dictator in the developing world, not in one of the most advanced cities in the world. It only adds to the adage that freedom must be continually fought for.
- munificent 6y ago> It's something that I would have thought would only be seen by a dictator in the developing world, not in one of the most advanced cities in the world. People said the exact same thing about the Holocaust. How could such a modern, enlightened country like Germany kill six million Jewish people? We like to believe that the trappings of modern society are an innoculation against tyranny, but they are not and have never been.
- Medicalidiot 6y agohttps://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/511928.html https://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/511928.html
- DonaldFisk 6y agoIt is stated in the Sino-British Joint Declaration that "The [HKSAR] will be vested with executive, legislative and independent judicial power, including that of final adjudication." [1] So it's unclear how this can be legally imposed unilaterally on Hong Kong. That said, the proposed law appears to be one which the HK legislature is required to pass under Article 23 of the Basic Law, which states "The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People's Government, or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organisations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organisations or bodies of the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organisations or bodies." [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law_Article_23 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law_Article_23
- ping_pong 6y agoWhy are people surprised? I'm frankly surprised this didn't happen sooner. The handover was 1987 it's over 30 years now. The Chinese have been slowly gutting HK and moving the financial center over to Shanghai for decades now. The idea that China wouldn't take over HK and essentially crush it into line is shocking to me. I wish it didn't happen but it's fairly obvious it would. I have many, many friends currently living in HK right now and they all seem to be living with their heads in their sand for years now.
- ENOTTY 6y agoCompanies with significant ties to the US financial system and interests in Hong Kong need to start planning for the contingency that Hong Kong loses its special status under US law that treats it differently from mainland China.
- ksec 6y agoThey did. And as far as I know they will be very busy for the weekend.
- peisistratos 6y agoHong Kong is a colonial relic, it makes all the sense in the world for China to reintegrate this former imperial outpost now.
- chr1 6y agoChina itself is a colonial relic, it just happens to be a relic of a much older and much more cruel empire. In a more lucky timeline, it would have crumbled similar to Roman empire, and now, instead of one mega-dictatorship, there would be an alliance of multiple independent countries.
- gok 6y agoThe writing was on the wall once it became clear that the West isn't going to do anything about it.
- alphawong 6y agoVery true. China gov is easy to find that the West will do nothing for it. We can find an example from the Crimean Peninsula. So, the fact is that another East Berlin has been set up. Let see how many tragedies like East Berlin will be replayed.
- garyclarke27 6y agoTime for democratic countries - those with genuinely free elections and an independent effective judiciary - to leave the UN and WTO and form their own global Democratic Freedom Organisation - with members benefiting from Free Trade, common standards, and in the long term, freedom of movement plus a supreme court. They should impose onerous tariffs on corrupt governments like the PRC and lower tariffs on countries progressing towards democracy and away from corruption. Some short term pain as supply chains are disrupted but would be a massive force for the good of humanity in the long run.
- rorykoehler 6y agoInteresting that this is downvoted without comment. That ratio is mighty suspicious, especially since this is an idea worth discussing.
- shdh 6y agoAnd yet no one discussed the idea.
- rorykoehler 6y agoThat’s what happens when stuff gets downvoted. It’s why astroturfing works
- stevespang 6y agoTaiwan needs to have nukes in their arsenal as a deterrent.
- credit_guy 6y agoA lot of people here are alluding to the fact that China is planning to invade Taiwan in a not so distant future. China wants to annex Taiwan, that's for sure, and I don't think they are trying too hard to conceal this intention. But military invasion means crossing a sea that is 130 km wide at its narrowest. Such an think can't happen if you don't own the sea and the skies. There are two ways to do that: you get a better Navy than the US Navy, or you get the US Navy to stay out of the way. The first one is all but impossible, while the second one is highly unlikely. The only realistic way for China to take over Taiwan is via a democratic process, by a charm offensive. This is many, many times more likely to happen than a military operation, but if it happens, then that's the will of the people.
- ginko 6y ago>The only realistic way for China to take over Taiwan is via a democratic process, by a charm offensive. They haven't been doing all that well with that lately.
- koheripbal 6y agoChina has publicly said that it is very patient in this regard. The only thing that will trigger invasion, is if Taiwan makes a concerted effort towards full independence. ...and while we can say that HK protests and covid-19 have reduced the popularity of unification, it is still, on average, more popular an idea than at any time since the split in 1949. EDIT: Because I couldn't find any data supporting my above statement, I'll just throw a link with the latest (20yr) trend that mostly just says that the vast vast majority of Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo... source: http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2019/01/ http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/2019/01/ ...and since China has said publicly that they won't act against Taiwan as long as they don't move away, then the only outcome we're going to see on Taiwan is a whole lot of nothing for the foreseeable future - even if HK students on here want to see Taiwan supporting them - that doesn't seem like that's going to happen.
- billfruit 6y agoThough presently Taiwan is ruled by the DPP who is pro-independence, the other major party which has been often in power, the Kuomintang generally tries to foster a "Chinese" identity rather than a "Taiwanese" one and have always had a vision of "Reunification" with China, eventually. So the political dynamic in Taiwan has a bearing on the matter.
- archibaldJ 6y agoAn earlier take-over is bound to happen unless the protests in Hong Kong manage to escalate to the national scale. There will have been more public empathy in mainland for Hong Kong have people in Hong Kong in general been nicer to people visiting from mainland in the last 20 years instead of being so discriminative and unfriendly. And if there are more empathy, we will see protests as well as stronger public opinions among people in mainland favouring non interference in Hong Kong. And it will become an actual movement. And there will be actual changes. Let's not forget the protests in 1989 were started by mainland Chinese themselves and though it ended in the worst way possible it was not in vain. In many ways they had had positive impacts to the system and the overall human rights in China (though it still doesn't enjoy the same degrees of freedom as in the West). People in Hong Kong as well as people in China should take this as a sociocultural lesson. If we want to change and improve the system, we need to unite. As much as the system is authoritarian the way the system works ultimately reflects how divided the people see themselves.
- irrational 6y agoI understand that HK was under British rule for a long time (I remember well when the hand over happened). But after the hand over I don't understand why HK was not treated just like any other Chinese region/province/state/district (I realize now that I don't know how China splits up it's country)? Why was HK granted special privileges that made it different than other parts of the country? To me it would be as if Kansas is allowed to do things totally different than the other 49 states, such as not pay federal income tax. Why would that kind of thing be allowed?
- AnimalMuppet 6y agoBecause the handover treaty said that it had to happen for the next 50 years. And the 50 years aren't up.
- irrational 6y agoAh, interesting. I did not know that.
- av_engr 6y agoCapitalistic and free society Vs. "Communism" and suppressive society. The Sino-British Joint Declaration was to address these concern on merging such polarizing society together, which is giving HK a special status, different law (system), and autonomy (which doesnt exist anymore, 22 years into its 50 years treaty).
- ngcc_hk 6y agoThe better title is take external or alien control of HongKong. Whilst pathetic most laws and bills have a process local in Hong Kong. Like a right wing paradise you not just have free market but also has essentially no government (police dare not to walk the street say) and no bill pass for months now. Even pandemics the response of the Gov is continue to open the border so the mainland Chinese can fly in and out of china. The public just on their own finding ways to get mask, making them and wearing them. On their own. Now the china would bypass the local legislature to enact the law the local has opposed since 2004 with the 1st time million comes out again the security law. Guess they want to as that law give mainland rights to institute their own force and likely their own legal procedure which unlike common law the accuser has to prove themselves innocent. Good luck and with that gone Hk is ended. In the past we at least may know. Now we may not. Just no idea if you are in mainland why Hk stock market drop 5% in friday, the largest drop in last 5 years. When the law is enacted bypassing your constitution (see all us, uk+2, and even the Eu Announcement), you are done. What to do if you are Jews under nazi. Unlike USA to Jews, there is nowhere to go as the law actually covered any HKER in the world. We know they will enforce it in spite of you are outside china. It is a bigger country than North Korea. Fight. See you.