12 ms·

Iceland is quite unique, only one real large population center, limited public transport, tiny venues, multi-generational homes and overall a tiny population so

Iceland is quite unique, only one real large population center, limited public transport, tiny venues, multi-generational homes and overall a tiny population so it doesn’t seem to be the prime candidate for contact tracing apps since it’s effectively the best case scenario for traditional contact tracing.

__s 6y ago
For reference, https://icelandmag.is/article/capita-champion-world https://icelandmag.is/article/capita-champion-world Also most chess GMs per capita, 2nd most cars per capita, it goes on..
- Someone 6y ago
  That’s just the law of small countries (just made up that term). It’s easier for smaller entities to be an outlier. You’ll find about the same positive as negative ones, though. If you were to split a large country such as the USA or China into parts with a third of a million people, chances are that, for any of these, there would be a parts that beats Iceland. There may be exceptions such as the highest usage of hydro-power usage, as they have a rather unique geology. Vatican City won’t be beat on popes per km², either (it has just over two)
  - pedrocr 6y ago
    > Vatican City won’t be beat on popes per km², either (it has just over two) Just over 4 actually. There are 2 popes in 0.49 km^2 so 4.1.
    - Someone 6y ago
      Depends on your definition of pope. There’s only one bishop of Rome/head of the Catholic Church in Vatican City. Benedict XVI now is ‘pope emeritus’ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop_in_the_Catholic_Church#Pope_emeritus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop_in_the_Catholic_Church#...)
  - smnrchrds 6y ago
    Remember the year Vatican city was the murder capital of the world by a large margin? It had 256 murders per 100,000 inhabitants [0]. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/g77wwj/oc_the_homicide_rate_in_vatican_city/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/g77wwj/oc_...
  - kgwgk 6y ago
    > It’s easier for smaller entities to be an outlier. The Most Dangerous Equation Ignorance of how sample size affects statistical variation has created havoc for nearly a millennium https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/91c1/f00095ca156ea39fe0f225882977b8fa0167.pdf https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/91c1/f00095ca156ea39fe0f225...
dredds 6y ago
NZ is also postponing app tracing as our cases hit zero, and our PM recommends old school ppl power. (200 tracers on standby with more being trained just in case)
- Trasmatta 6y ago
  NZ and Iceland may be unique, but I am extremely skeptical about tracking apps being useful at all elsewhere, in comparison to large teams of trained contact tracers.
  - eloff 6y ago
    I'm skeptical of the idea with regard to civil liberties, but I don't see why one would doubt it's efficacy. It's a tool to make the contract tracers more productive, and I expect it will be fit for purpose.
    - exmadscientist 6y ago
      The biggest problem with contact tracing apps is that contact tracing in general is not very effective when the case rate is high. Its ideal use is to deal with the first case arriving in an isolated area. The sixth wave in the heart of NYC, not so useful. This means that the scalability advantages of tech don't synergize well with the uses of contact tracing. If you don't have very many cases to worry about, a dedicated team of humans will do just as well. And not have nearly the same long-term privacy issues.
      - Reelin 6y ago
        > a dedicated team of humans will do just as well That seems unlikely to me given that no jurisdiction has unlimited resources, not everything is captured on camera, patient's memories aren't perfect, and there may be incentives to lie or otherwise under-report certain contacts when things aren't completely anonymous. (For example, in many countries patients are likely to avoid revealing contact with a drug dealer.) In comparison, DP-3T (and also the joint Apple-Google framework based on an earlier revision of it) will capture any significant contact provided that both parties are carrying appropriate devices. It also maintains anonymity, so it removes nearly all incentives to mis- or under- report. It's not a replacement for teams of people, but it should provide significant improvements in areas where the majority of people are carrying such devices. > And not have nearly the same long-term privacy issues. Neither DP-3T, the Apple-Google framework, or the TCN protocol have any significant privacy implications (beyond whatever is already associated with carrying the physical device doing the tracing, and to the best of my knowledge of course).
triyambakam 6y ago
Contact tracing is not needed - identify the people at high risk and protect them from the virus. People at low risk should be expected to circulate the virus and develop immunity. Contract tracing among low risk defeats the purpose. If we're ever going to get our lives back, and not be on indefinite timeline of "maybe there will be a highly effective vaccine" we actually need the virus to circulate among people who can safely get it, get over it, make antibodies which historically - before the advent of highly effective vaccines - is how pandemics ended. Total isolation policies prevent broad population immunity. We know from decades of medical science that the population develops immunity while acquiring antibodies.
- tsimionescu 6y ago
  That depends on the disease. Is there any proof that people develop immunity to covid 19 after getting it?
  - bad_user 6y ago
    We don't have evidence due to disease being so new, but there's enough reason to suspect we'll develop at least short term neutralizing immunity. But yes, caution is necessary. We don't have enough evidence to push forward a national strategy that's based on people developing immunity without a vaccine. Here's WHO's statement on this matter: https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19 https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-p... "Herd immunity" without a vaccine, as a strategy, is equivalent with doing nothing and let the virus wreak havoc on the population.
    - tomp 6y ago
      Risk vs reward. If there is immunity, then developing herd immunity sooner rather than later is important (even more so if there's immunity but it's only short-term). If there's no immunity, we're, excuse the expression, fucked anyhow. Can vaccines even be developed if there's no natural immunity?
dehrmann 6y ago
All the interesting places people have been pointing to are islands. Except South Korea, but it's effectively an island.
- adventured 6y ago
  Also one of the primary reasons Hawaii only has 17 deaths and 637 positives.
- manquer 6y ago
  South Korea is this context similar to an island . While it is peninsula the only land border is with North Korea and highly guarded , effectively you can only enter by flying in just like an island.
  - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
    Not just flying. South Korea is also connected to Russia, China and Japan by ferry.
    - wigl 6y ago
      Not sure about the Russia and China routes but the Busan-Shimonoseki ferry is pretty impractical. 13 hrs and about as expensive as a flight. More if you consider train costs from Shimonoseki.
      - 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
        Busan-Fukuoka ferries go directly between two huge cities and are priced competitively, particularly if you get a cabin instead of paying for a hotel.
        wigl 6y ago
        Wow the JR Beetle is super fast! Didn't know about that, my knowledge is pretty old, thanks!
CathedralBorrow 6y ago
> multi-generational homes Can you clarify what you mean by this?
- llarsson 6y ago
  That typically means grandma lives with your family in her old age, rather then by herself or in some old folks home.
  - meheleventyone 6y ago
    This isn’t typical at least in my decade of living in Iceland.
  - CathedralBorrow 6y ago
    Ah, thanks. Iceland is whatever you call the opposite of that. Grandma very rarely lives with her family, she lives by herself -- hopefully with her partner -- until she is unable to and then moves into a system that ranges from living-alone-with-help to typical old folks homes, and will gradually move towards more care as her health allows. So that's wrong in the original comment, but the rest seemed pretty spot on to me, and doesn't change the argument much I think.
    - gramakri 6y ago
      The opposite is nuclear family I think
ashtonkem 6y ago
Iceland is so unique that the primary dating app considers incest as a risk factor. That’s not a thing most population groups need to worry about.
- kleton 6y ago
  That was more of a joke app that the foreign press got very excited about.
swebs 6y ago
And the population of the entire country is 360,000 people.
rurban 6y ago
I would doubt that. If I remember the Iceland outbreak map correctly, they had two isolated outbreak centers, far away from each other. One in Reykjavik center and the 2nd in a small town outside. I would definitely like to know if my village is suddenly affected or not. They already did the very first traditional contact tracing, worldwide. We know a lot from this data. And they also did tracing via the mutating generations. Full scale.

__s 6y ago

For reference, https://icelandmag.is/article/capita-champion-world https://icelandmag.is/article/capita-champion-world Also most chess GMs per capita, 2nd most cars per capita, it goes on..

Someone 6y ago
That’s just the law of small countries (just made up that term). It’s easier for smaller entities to be an outlier. You’ll find about the same positive as negative ones, though. If you were to split a large country such as the USA or China into parts with a third of a million people, chances are that, for any of these, there would be a parts that beats Iceland. There may be exceptions such as the highest usage of hydro-power usage, as they have a rather unique geology. Vatican City won’t be beat on popes per km², either (it has just over two)
- pedrocr 6y ago
  > Vatican City won’t be beat on popes per km², either (it has just over two) Just over 4 actually. There are 2 popes in 0.49 km^2 so 4.1.
  - Someone 6y ago
    Depends on your definition of pope. There’s only one bishop of Rome/head of the Catholic Church in Vatican City. Benedict XVI now is ‘pope emeritus’ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop_in_the_Catholic_Church#Pope_emeritus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop_in_the_Catholic_Church#...)
- smnrchrds 6y ago
  Remember the year Vatican city was the murder capital of the world by a large margin? It had 256 murders per 100,000 inhabitants [0]. [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/g77wwj/oc_the_homicide_rate_in_vatican_city/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/g77wwj/oc_...
- kgwgk 6y ago
  > It’s easier for smaller entities to be an outlier. The Most Dangerous Equation Ignorance of how sample size affects statistical variation has created havoc for nearly a millennium https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/91c1/f00095ca156ea39fe0f225882977b8fa0167.pdf https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/91c1/f00095ca156ea39fe0f225...

dredds 6y ago

NZ is also postponing app tracing as our cases hit zero, and our PM recommends old school ppl power. (200 tracers on standby with more being trained just in case)

Trasmatta 6y ago
NZ and Iceland may be unique, but I am extremely skeptical about tracking apps being useful at all elsewhere, in comparison to large teams of trained contact tracers.
- eloff 6y ago
  I'm skeptical of the idea with regard to civil liberties, but I don't see why one would doubt it's efficacy. It's a tool to make the contract tracers more productive, and I expect it will be fit for purpose.
  - exmadscientist 6y ago
    The biggest problem with contact tracing apps is that contact tracing in general is not very effective when the case rate is high. Its ideal use is to deal with the first case arriving in an isolated area. The sixth wave in the heart of NYC, not so useful. This means that the scalability advantages of tech don't synergize well with the uses of contact tracing. If you don't have very many cases to worry about, a dedicated team of humans will do just as well. And not have nearly the same long-term privacy issues.
    - Reelin 6y ago
      > a dedicated team of humans will do just as well That seems unlikely to me given that no jurisdiction has unlimited resources, not everything is captured on camera, patient's memories aren't perfect, and there may be incentives to lie or otherwise under-report certain contacts when things aren't completely anonymous. (For example, in many countries patients are likely to avoid revealing contact with a drug dealer.) In comparison, DP-3T (and also the joint Apple-Google framework based on an earlier revision of it) will capture any significant contact provided that both parties are carrying appropriate devices. It also maintains anonymity, so it removes nearly all incentives to mis- or under- report. It's not a replacement for teams of people, but it should provide significant improvements in areas where the majority of people are carrying such devices. > And not have nearly the same long-term privacy issues. Neither DP-3T, the Apple-Google framework, or the TCN protocol have any significant privacy implications (beyond whatever is already associated with carrying the physical device doing the tracing, and to the best of my knowledge of course).

triyambakam 6y ago

Contact tracing is not needed - identify the people at high risk and protect them from the virus. People at low risk should be expected to circulate the virus and develop immunity. Contract tracing among low risk defeats the purpose. If we're ever going to get our lives back, and not be on indefinite timeline of "maybe there will be a highly effective vaccine" we actually need the virus to circulate among people who can safely get it, get over it, make antibodies which historically - before the advent of highly effective vaccines - is how pandemics ended. Total isolation policies prevent broad population immunity. We know from decades of medical science that the population develops immunity while acquiring antibodies.

tsimionescu 6y ago
That depends on the disease. Is there any proof that people develop immunity to covid 19 after getting it?
- bad_user 6y ago
  We don't have evidence due to disease being so new, but there's enough reason to suspect we'll develop at least short term neutralizing immunity. But yes, caution is necessary. We don't have enough evidence to push forward a national strategy that's based on people developing immunity without a vaccine. Here's WHO's statement on this matter: https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19 https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-p... "Herd immunity" without a vaccine, as a strategy, is equivalent with doing nothing and let the virus wreak havoc on the population.
  - tomp 6y ago
    Risk vs reward. If there is immunity, then developing herd immunity sooner rather than later is important (even more so if there's immunity but it's only short-term). If there's no immunity, we're, excuse the expression, fucked anyhow. Can vaccines even be developed if there's no natural immunity?

dehrmann 6y ago

All the interesting places people have been pointing to are islands. Except South Korea, but it's effectively an island.

adventured 6y ago
Also one of the primary reasons Hawaii only has 17 deaths and 637 positives.
manquer 6y ago
South Korea is this context similar to an island . While it is peninsula the only land border is with North Korea and highly guarded , effectively you can only enter by flying in just like an island.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  Not just flying. South Korea is also connected to Russia, China and Japan by ferry.
  - wigl 6y ago
    Not sure about the Russia and China routes but the Busan-Shimonoseki ferry is pretty impractical. 13 hrs and about as expensive as a flight. More if you consider train costs from Shimonoseki.
    - 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
      Busan-Fukuoka ferries go directly between two huge cities and are priced competitively, particularly if you get a cabin instead of paying for a hotel.
      - wigl 6y ago
        Wow the JR Beetle is super fast! Didn't know about that, my knowledge is pretty old, thanks!

CathedralBorrow 6y ago

> multi-generational homes Can you clarify what you mean by this?

llarsson 6y ago
That typically means grandma lives with your family in her old age, rather then by herself or in some old folks home.
- meheleventyone 6y ago
  This isn’t typical at least in my decade of living in Iceland.
- CathedralBorrow 6y ago
  Ah, thanks. Iceland is whatever you call the opposite of that. Grandma very rarely lives with her family, she lives by herself -- hopefully with her partner -- until she is unable to and then moves into a system that ranges from living-alone-with-help to typical old folks homes, and will gradually move towards more care as her health allows. So that's wrong in the original comment, but the rest seemed pretty spot on to me, and doesn't change the argument much I think.
  - gramakri 6y ago
    The opposite is nuclear family I think

ashtonkem 6y ago

Iceland is so unique that the primary dating app considers incest as a risk factor. That’s not a thing most population groups need to worry about.

kleton 6y ago
That was more of a joke app that the foreign press got very excited about.

swebs 6y ago

And the population of the entire country is 360,000 people.

rurban 6y ago

I would doubt that. If I remember the Iceland outbreak map correctly, they had two isolated outbreak centers, far away from each other. One in Reykjavik center and the 2nd in a small town outside. I would definitely like to know if my village is suddenly affected or not. They already did the very first traditional contact tracing, worldwide. We know a lot from this data. And they also did tracing via the mutating generations. Full scale.