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How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I think people are smarter and

How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I think people are smarter and more accepting of the status quo than those who are making the most noise. As for those who are overburdened by the lockdown (i.e. lost jobs), its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control.

drtillberg 6y ago
>its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control. Let's be clear-- there is no true safety net for middle-income professionals. We can draw down savings and cross our fingers that this resume gap doesn't kill a professional career. And that's just the financial and career consequences. There definitely are other consequences of unemployment too. I feel fortunate not to live in L.A. county but the public health response my state is not a lot less draconian. I just am astounded. I would love to wrap everyone and everything in bubble wrap as much as the next person to protect everyone from a very dangerous world but this is too much.
- gbear605 6y ago
  Resume wise, you’re in the same boat as everyone else
  - drtillberg 6y ago
    Everyone's situation is different. Unemployment isn't 100% and the class of 2021 won't have this gap. Think employers are rational enough to iron that out? Nah, you have more faith than me.
  - fennecfoxen 6y ago
    No, I live in a different city and I am fortunate to still have a job. A different boat exists, and I am in it.
- ralph84 6y ago
  Careers never fully recover from extended unemployment. There is plenty of research on this from previous downturns.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    There hasn't been a "previous downturn" with this concentrated (size × time) an unemployment spike. It's weird to claim we know now how employers will react to it yet when they see "unemployed, May 2020" on a resume.
    - greglindahl 6y ago
      Didn't recessions in the US, 100 years ago, used to be huge and always have V-shaped recoveries?
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        The Department of Labor didn't collect unemployment numbers until the 1940s, but it's my understanding that the recent spike in filings is unique in size since they did.
angst_ridden 6y ago
I dunno. People in West LA already seem to be complying poorly. There are a lot of entitled people around here, and a lot of folks doing plague cosplay (wearing a mask around their neck like a talisman, gathering but moving to "safe" distance when other people draw close, etc.)
Ididntdothis 6y ago
“its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control.“ There are limits to this and the burden is distributed very unevenly. If you have a spa, your business is taking a big hit , but the landlord is not required to stop asking for rent. We would have to switch the whole economy to a non profit model, otherwise the lucky ones make out like bandits and others are being driven out of business.
- epicureanideal 6y ago
  This "some businesses are saved" effect that's happening now is the most unfair thing, in my opinion. If the government wanted to provide support to keep everyone roughly where they were before the pandemic, that's great. But picking and choosing is really unfair. And it seems to be hurting small business owners and the middle class the most. Unemployment payments max out at what, $4000 per month? Meanwhile a middle class professional in the Bay Area might pay that much just for rent, before considering food or other expenses.
  - int_19h 6y ago
    Freezing rents and interest throughout the entire economy would substantially reduce the amount of government assistance needed. It's also not the same as a non-profit economy.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
whalesalad 6y ago
> How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. Some people are trying ... but you are only as strong as your weakest link. It's tough to keep up stringent personal standards when everyone around you has said fuck it and given up. So I completely 110% agree with the parent commenter that people have already been demonstrating they don't want to comply. I mean, it's human nature. No one wants to be told what to do. The hospital boat off the shore is completely empty (it treated a total of 77 patients). Most of our hospitals are significantly below capacity. We've all been sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for the apocalypse and nothing is happening. Just crickets. Unavailable unemployment funds, closed businesses, lost jobs. The one thing everyone is learning from this is that the government will not help you. It doesn't matter how liberal or conservative your state is, or whether you believe most in federal or state governments ... everyone is doing a shitty job in one way or another. So if the government is not going to do fuck-all for me, why should I do fuck-all for the government?
- danans 6y ago
  > I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. It's a big state. Compliance varies a lot by area, and by local culture. Just because there are some people who don't take social distancing precautions doesn't mean that those who have the civic sense to take those precautions should abandon their efforts.
  - whalesalad 6y ago
    I'm just painting a picture of the vibe I am experiencing as a native Californian who has been out a lot in LA and OC. I still wear a mask when I am out and do my best to abide by social distancing rules. We have lots of hand sanitizer in our vehicles, about a hundred medical-grade masks, and a lot of bandanas and other stuff in case we need it.
anonAndOn 6y ago
Ever hear of the term speakeasy? The high school kids are going to be kicked out of their basement bars by their parents who will want it for themselves.
icelancer 6y ago
>> its on the governments to provide the safety net That's not really working out now. Plenty of people in WA state as well as NY state are waiting on unemployment claims dating back to March. Fed is backstopping large corp. losses while the every day person gets nothing. WA state is rolling out a "science and data" dashboard that looks like an MS Word clipart project from an 8 year old kid. Our governments are mostly inept at anything resembling complexity. Something ten times more complicated and difficult like this shows how slow they are to action. This was foreseeable. The WA state subduction zone report shows that in a simulated catastrophe due to liquifaction / earthquake in the Pacific Northwest, mean time for government intervention for aid-related activities was on the order of 3-4 weeks. We talk about how large corporations privatize gains and socialize losses; government agencies are quick to act on authoritarian measures like lockdowns but slow to act on remedies to keep them going in an equitable fashion. The only surprising thing ongoing in the nation right now is the degree of ineptitude of our government agencies. Not even I thought they were this bad at getting aid to people.
syshum 6y ago
Where is the government going to get this money? Most social programs are funded by income taxes, if no one is working there are no income taxes to take from people to pay the people not working Unless you just want infinite money printing. The Federal Unemployment increase ends in July, and it highly unlikely this will be extended, so the county of LA has no ability to print more money, or really extend their debt LA and CA has a real chance of going bankrupt,
- qwe098cube 6y ago
  CA only has $17.5 billion in reserve as of February. This will most definitively don't last until July. And the government has made it clear they won't bail out states. Once the money drys up CA can't afford to keep counties locked down indefinitely.
- nradov 6y ago
  It is literally impossible for a sovereign entity like California to go bankrupt. If the state government becomes insolvent then they'll just stop paying some debts and issue IOUs (like with the 2009 budget crisis).
  - syshum 6y ago
    While it has never happened, States unlike the federal government can become insolvent, Issuing IOU's (aka debt) only works if the businesses are willing to accept and loan the state the money. and IOU for services is no differant functionally than a loan, and if your business does not believe the state is good for it then you will stop providing services Further I am sure employee will stick around for a long time when their paychecks are replaced with "IOU's" So sure technically there is no bankrupcy court for the entire state, the fact remains that a State can absolutely enter in to a condition that is more or less the same thing as bankrupcy. The feds can just print more money, and most likely CA would beg the feds to do just that to bail them out should that happen Local municipalities and counties can absolutely go bankrupt. Which is more likely in this situation
JPKab 6y ago
"I think people are smarter and more accepting of the status quo than those who are making the most noise. As for those who are overburdened by the lockdown (i.e. lost jobs), its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control." This is the problem with a website for desk jockeys commenting on orders that don't impact their livelihoods. For any individual, there is a cost/benefit analysis for the lock downs. The cost is a hell of a lot lower for you and me than it is for restaurant, construction, factory, etc workers who have lost their livelihoods. Let's not forget about the small business owners and independent contractors. These folks are incurring a much higher cost, and as far as the government assisting them, how smooth do you think that is going? Have you personally gone and applied for unemployment benefits, or an SBA loan to keep your business afloat? The government safety net isn't ideal, or pleasant, to deal with. Mayor Garcetti hasn't done well with reforming the LA government, nor dozens of predecessors. The state government of California isn't fun to deal with either. You probably don't have kids either, if you fit the typical demographic on HN. A complete failure of empathy on the part of members of the professional/managerial class, who bear little costs of the lockdown towards those who pay the most. This stay at home order doesn't seem to be informed by updated models and data on this illness. The disease is highly contagious, and deadly at an unacceptably high rate to certain high-risk categories of the population. Those people should change their behavior. The "wait 2 weeks" thing is what I keep hearing people who are stuck in the "only lockdowns will work" mindset say about every place that has lifted or not implemented lockdowns. It's almost as if they are hoping for it. Let's be clear: If Georgia and Texas are fine a week from now, that will be good news for the whole country. Even if this good news proves your previously held opinion wrong, it will still be good news. I sense that people on here are hoping for bad news instead, because then they would be right. Your statement about people being "smarter". Let's be real here, what you mean by "smart" is people who share your beliefs about the best solution to this virus. As if anyone knows with certainty what the best path is. Nobody does. We are all trying our best with the latest data. Except for politicians, who are hell bent on proving that their initial, poorly informed decisions are indeed the way to go by doubling down on them.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
fennecfoxen 6y ago
Honestly, they should just open up, pass some mask rules and other targeted measures, and then stay open come what may. A broad, untargeted shutdown was always both the bluntest and most expensive approach to this problem. Perhaps its sole merit is that it was really, really good at getting peoples' attention. Unfortunately, LA is governed by people who do not understand what "the economy" actually means, and view it as a thing to disdain. They will not bear the costs of lost jobs, lost medical screenings, lost K-12 education, and lost social services (both now and pursuant to the city budget shortfalls). > its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control. There is no plan for "under control." We are still looking at a scenario where 50-70% of the population gets the virus. There is a possibility of a vaccine, yes — but no one credible suggests we ought to be planning for it in the next year. Plan for a 2-year shutdown order, or plan to reopen soon. A three month shutdown, in the middle of that range, doesn't make any sense at all.
- int_19h 6y ago
  The plan was to get it under control with testing, not a vaccine.
- harambaebae69 6y ago
  I happen to entirely agree with you, but the counterargument is that a treatment (not vaccine) becomes available earlier which makes the incidence of actual lasting damage from wuflu so low as to not warrant any more shutdown.
sershe 6y ago
WA reopened outdoor spaces for the first time this week (to be fair, that also coincided with hot weather). The situation at the trailheads was insane. There were cars lined up along the road half a mile from the parking lot in places (someone posted a video on FB suggesting people don't go). We went climbing and the giant pullout by a climbing/hiking area that isn't even an official trailhead and has no facilities had at least twice as many cars as I've ever seen there, maybe more. Most were hikers and there definitely was no social distancing happening (the climbing areas were busy but there were few enough people to technically be 6ft apart, as is usually the case in this area). Oh, and 2 out of my ~10 teammates at a major tech company took Friday off, one for a "long weekend" roadtrip, one for unspecified reasons... I also doubt that's a coincidence. I can't wait to see what happens when restaurants reopen. I'm definitely heading to a bar asap.

drtillberg 6y ago

>its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control. Let's be clear-- there is no true safety net for middle-income professionals. We can draw down savings and cross our fingers that this resume gap doesn't kill a professional career. And that's just the financial and career consequences. There definitely are other consequences of unemployment too. I feel fortunate not to live in L.A. county but the public health response my state is not a lot less draconian. I just am astounded. I would love to wrap everyone and everything in bubble wrap as much as the next person to protect everyone from a very dangerous world but this is too much.

gbear605 6y ago
Resume wise, you’re in the same boat as everyone else
- drtillberg 6y ago
  Everyone's situation is different. Unemployment isn't 100% and the class of 2021 won't have this gap. Think employers are rational enough to iron that out? Nah, you have more faith than me.
- fennecfoxen 6y ago
  No, I live in a different city and I am fortunate to still have a job. A different boat exists, and I am in it.
ralph84 6y ago
Careers never fully recover from extended unemployment. There is plenty of research on this from previous downturns.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  There hasn't been a "previous downturn" with this concentrated (size × time) an unemployment spike. It's weird to claim we know now how employers will react to it yet when they see "unemployed, May 2020" on a resume.
  - greglindahl 6y ago
    Didn't recessions in the US, 100 years ago, used to be huge and always have V-shaped recoveries?
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      The Department of Labor didn't collect unemployment numbers until the 1940s, but it's my understanding that the recent spike in filings is unique in size since they did.

angst_ridden 6y ago

I dunno. People in West LA already seem to be complying poorly. There are a lot of entitled people around here, and a lot of folks doing plague cosplay (wearing a mask around their neck like a talisman, gathering but moving to "safe" distance when other people draw close, etc.)

Ididntdothis 6y ago

“its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control.“ There are limits to this and the burden is distributed very unevenly. If you have a spa, your business is taking a big hit , but the landlord is not required to stop asking for rent. We would have to switch the whole economy to a non profit model, otherwise the lucky ones make out like bandits and others are being driven out of business.

epicureanideal 6y ago
This "some businesses are saved" effect that's happening now is the most unfair thing, in my opinion. If the government wanted to provide support to keep everyone roughly where they were before the pandemic, that's great. But picking and choosing is really unfair. And it seems to be hurting small business owners and the middle class the most. Unemployment payments max out at what, $4000 per month? Meanwhile a middle class professional in the Bay Area might pay that much just for rent, before considering food or other expenses.
- int_19h 6y ago
  Freezing rents and interest throughout the entire economy would substantially reduce the amount of government assistance needed. It's also not the same as a non-profit economy.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

whalesalad 6y ago

> How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. Some people are trying ... but you are only as strong as your weakest link. It's tough to keep up stringent personal standards when everyone around you has said fuck it and given up. So I completely 110% agree with the parent commenter that people have already been demonstrating they don't want to comply. I mean, it's human nature. No one wants to be told what to do. The hospital boat off the shore is completely empty (it treated a total of 77 patients). Most of our hospitals are significantly below capacity. We've all been sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for the apocalypse and nothing is happening. Just crickets. Unavailable unemployment funds, closed businesses, lost jobs. The one thing everyone is learning from this is that the government will not help you. It doesn't matter how liberal or conservative your state is, or whether you believe most in federal or state governments ... everyone is doing a shitty job in one way or another. So if the government is not going to do fuck-all for me, why should I do fuck-all for the government?

danans 6y ago
> I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. It's a big state. Compliance varies a lot by area, and by local culture. Just because there are some people who don't take social distancing precautions doesn't mean that those who have the civic sense to take those precautions should abandon their efforts.
- whalesalad 6y ago
  I'm just painting a picture of the vibe I am experiencing as a native Californian who has been out a lot in LA and OC. I still wear a mask when I am out and do my best to abide by social distancing rules. We have lots of hand sanitizer in our vehicles, about a hundred medical-grade masks, and a lot of bandanas and other stuff in case we need it.

anonAndOn 6y ago

Ever hear of the term speakeasy? The high school kids are going to be kicked out of their basement bars by their parents who will want it for themselves.

icelancer 6y ago

>> its on the governments to provide the safety net That's not really working out now. Plenty of people in WA state as well as NY state are waiting on unemployment claims dating back to March. Fed is backstopping large corp. losses while the every day person gets nothing. WA state is rolling out a "science and data" dashboard that looks like an MS Word clipart project from an 8 year old kid. Our governments are mostly inept at anything resembling complexity. Something ten times more complicated and difficult like this shows how slow they are to action. This was foreseeable. The WA state subduction zone report shows that in a simulated catastrophe due to liquifaction / earthquake in the Pacific Northwest, mean time for government intervention for aid-related activities was on the order of 3-4 weeks. We talk about how large corporations privatize gains and socialize losses; government agencies are quick to act on authoritarian measures like lockdowns but slow to act on remedies to keep them going in an equitable fashion. The only surprising thing ongoing in the nation right now is the degree of ineptitude of our government agencies. Not even I thought they were this bad at getting aid to people.

syshum 6y ago

Where is the government going to get this money? Most social programs are funded by income taxes, if no one is working there are no income taxes to take from people to pay the people not working Unless you just want infinite money printing. The Federal Unemployment increase ends in July, and it highly unlikely this will be extended, so the county of LA has no ability to print more money, or really extend their debt LA and CA has a real chance of going bankrupt,

qwe098cube 6y ago
CA only has $17.5 billion in reserve as of February. This will most definitively don't last until July. And the government has made it clear they won't bail out states. Once the money drys up CA can't afford to keep counties locked down indefinitely.
nradov 6y ago
It is literally impossible for a sovereign entity like California to go bankrupt. If the state government becomes insolvent then they'll just stop paying some debts and issue IOUs (like with the 2009 budget crisis).
- syshum 6y ago
  While it has never happened, States unlike the federal government can become insolvent, Issuing IOU's (aka debt) only works if the businesses are willing to accept and loan the state the money. and IOU for services is no differant functionally than a loan, and if your business does not believe the state is good for it then you will stop providing services Further I am sure employee will stick around for a long time when their paychecks are replaced with "IOU's" So sure technically there is no bankrupcy court for the entire state, the fact remains that a State can absolutely enter in to a condition that is more or less the same thing as bankrupcy. The feds can just print more money, and most likely CA would beg the feds to do just that to bail them out should that happen Local municipalities and counties can absolutely go bankrupt. Which is more likely in this situation

JPKab 6y ago

"I think people are smarter and more accepting of the status quo than those who are making the most noise. As for those who are overburdened by the lockdown (i.e. lost jobs), its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control." This is the problem with a website for desk jockeys commenting on orders that don't impact their livelihoods. For any individual, there is a cost/benefit analysis for the lock downs. The cost is a hell of a lot lower for you and me than it is for restaurant, construction, factory, etc workers who have lost their livelihoods. Let's not forget about the small business owners and independent contractors. These folks are incurring a much higher cost, and as far as the government assisting them, how smooth do you think that is going? Have you personally gone and applied for unemployment benefits, or an SBA loan to keep your business afloat? The government safety net isn't ideal, or pleasant, to deal with. Mayor Garcetti hasn't done well with reforming the LA government, nor dozens of predecessors. The state government of California isn't fun to deal with either. You probably don't have kids either, if you fit the typical demographic on HN. A complete failure of empathy on the part of members of the professional/managerial class, who bear little costs of the lockdown towards those who pay the most. This stay at home order doesn't seem to be informed by updated models and data on this illness. The disease is highly contagious, and deadly at an unacceptably high rate to certain high-risk categories of the population. Those people should change their behavior. The "wait 2 weeks" thing is what I keep hearing people who are stuck in the "only lockdowns will work" mindset say about every place that has lifted or not implemented lockdowns. It's almost as if they are hoping for it. Let's be clear: If Georgia and Texas are fine a week from now, that will be good news for the whole country. Even if this good news proves your previously held opinion wrong, it will still be good news. I sense that people on here are hoping for bad news instead, because then they would be right. Your statement about people being "smarter". Let's be real here, what you mean by "smart" is people who share your beliefs about the best solution to this virus. As if anyone knows with certainty what the best path is. Nobody does. We are all trying our best with the latest data. Except for politicians, who are hell bent on proving that their initial, poorly informed decisions are indeed the way to go by doubling down on them.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

fennecfoxen 6y ago

Honestly, they should just open up, pass some mask rules and other targeted measures, and then stay open come what may. A broad, untargeted shutdown was always both the bluntest and most expensive approach to this problem. Perhaps its sole merit is that it was really, really good at getting peoples' attention. Unfortunately, LA is governed by people who do not understand what "the economy" actually means, and view it as a thing to disdain. They will not bear the costs of lost jobs, lost medical screenings, lost K-12 education, and lost social services (both now and pursuant to the city budget shortfalls). > its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control. There is no plan for "under control." We are still looking at a scenario where 50-70% of the population gets the virus. There is a possibility of a vaccine, yes — but no one credible suggests we ought to be planning for it in the next year. Plan for a 2-year shutdown order, or plan to reopen soon. A three month shutdown, in the middle of that range, doesn't make any sense at all.

int_19h 6y ago
The plan was to get it under control with testing, not a vaccine.
harambaebae69 6y ago
I happen to entirely agree with you, but the counterargument is that a treatment (not vaccine) becomes available earlier which makes the incidence of actual lasting damage from wuflu so low as to not warrant any more shutdown.

sershe 6y ago

WA reopened outdoor spaces for the first time this week (to be fair, that also coincided with hot weather). The situation at the trailheads was insane. There were cars lined up along the road half a mile from the parking lot in places (someone posted a video on FB suggesting people don't go). We went climbing and the giant pullout by a climbing/hiking area that isn't even an official trailhead and has no facilities had at least twice as many cars as I've ever seen there, maybe more. Most were hikers and there definitely was no social distancing happening (the climbing areas were busy but there were few enough people to technically be 6ft apart, as is usually the case in this area). Oh, and 2 out of my ~10 teammates at a major tech company took Friday off, one for a "long weekend" roadtrip, one for unspecified reasons... I also doubt that's a coincidence. I can't wait to see what happens when restaurants reopen. I'm definitely heading to a bar asap.