6 ms·

I know we're talking about people's lives, but maybe the world needs to see a country get it devastatingly wrong.

romwell 7y ago
I wish the effects were limited to the politicians making the decisions. Perhaps Boris Johnson's attitude will change a little bit now, for example.
- cosmodisk 7y ago
  It will be quite the opposite,I think. The Brazilian president had it as well and here's the article about his actions.
  - q92z8oeif 7y ago
    he did not have it. he claimed he had it, not his doctor. One of the running twitter jokes, started by a famous comedian over there, is asking for the health minister, now that he was fired, to release the real result for the president's covid19 test.
mikepurvis 7y ago
Already happening in Sweden: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-health-agency https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-deat...
- mchusma 7y ago
  I don't understand the Sweden example. Their daily % increase in deaths is well below California. I don't know if there is a difference in counting deaths but Sweden seems to be doing ok relative to other countries. I have heard that they are effectively shut down voluntarily, so government action was not needed but the effect has been the same. Maybe a Swede can weigh in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_C... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...
  - andyroid 7y ago
    Swede here. Like you say our isolation is pretty much volountary, with only larger groups gathering being banned - though I very much doubt that would happen anyway should it be allowed. Our neighboring countries who opted for total lockdown are slowly starting to open up too. I think the death toll in pretty much any country will be primarily depending on how well you’ve protected your elderly. We’ve done OK but could certainly have done better. Though still very far from the “devastatingly wrong” claim above.
  - anon84598 7y ago
    Sweden isn't performing a lot of tests for one: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur...
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      Why do they need to perform a lot of tests if their strategy isn't dependent on testing?
      - ashtonkem 7y ago
        Because if there’s a giant spike of currently asymptomatic carriers, you’d want to know.
        SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        I definitely want to know. But it seems like Swedish public policy is that the current measures are the strictest sustainable ones, so they're going to maintain them until strict measures are no longer needed. It's not clear that early visibility of a spike would change that.
        ashtonkem 7y ago
        Given that mortality rate is closely tied to the availability of ventilators, it would be catastrophically short sighted to not react to a spike with strong, short term measures.
- icelancer 7y ago
  Far too early to say this is "devastatingly wrong." The number under the curve matters more than random spikes (that don't oversaturate the health system, BTW).
JamisonM 7y ago
I think Russia is already setting that example, really no need for two. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-russia-spike-cases-1.5533647 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-russia-spike-cases-1....
- vtail 7y ago
  Moscow and most of the other places in Russia are on a complete lockdown for more than a week now - much stricter that eg. NY or California. I’m not sure what do you mean by your comment.
  - JamisonM 7y ago
    I think if you read the article I linked to you can see what I mean. They were forbidding medical staff from doing tests and treatments! ... In an interview with CBC News on Monday, Dr. Rimma Kamalova, who heads the hospital's rheumatology department and is quarantined in the facility, said when the outbreak started, regional health authorities refused to test patients for coronavirus. "According to our policies ... we could not do testing on coronavirus," she said. "We had orders, at that time, not to give this diagnosis and take the relevant [mitigation] measures." ...
- 2019-nCoV 7y ago
  Russia is honestly handling the crisis better than most of the western world. They've done >1.6M tests with a positivity rate of 1.7%.
  - khuey 7y ago
    The number of cases China is reporting in travelers arriving from Russia strongly suggests that Russia is significantly underreporting the scope of its outbreak.
  - seppin 7y ago
    That positive rate is far too low. If you get < 15% anywhere with a proven widespread outbreak you aren't doing enough testing.
perl4ever 7y ago
Does it make any difference one way or the other? If the response is vital, then some country will get it "devastatingly wrong", and then won't that produce a new wave after a bit everywhere else? Won't that just be a sequel to the first cycle, where things seemed under control, it was downplayed, and then it got going outside of China. Why should anyone expect other than a fractal replay?
reinkaos 7y ago
It is already happening in the US.

I wish the effects were limited to the politicians making the decisions. Perhaps Boris Johnson's attitude will change a little bit now, for example.

cosmodisk 7y ago
It will be quite the opposite,I think. The Brazilian president had it as well and here's the article about his actions.
- q92z8oeif 7y ago
  he did not have it. he claimed he had it, not his doctor. One of the running twitter jokes, started by a famous comedian over there, is asking for the health minister, now that he was fired, to release the real result for the president's covid19 test.

mikepurvis 7y ago

Already happening in Sweden: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-health-agency https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-deat...

mchusma 7y ago
I don't understand the Sweden example. Their daily % increase in deaths is well below California. I don't know if there is a difference in counting deaths but Sweden seems to be doing ok relative to other countries. I have heard that they are effectively shut down voluntarily, so government action was not needed but the effect has been the same. Maybe a Swede can weigh in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_C... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...
- andyroid 7y ago
  Swede here. Like you say our isolation is pretty much volountary, with only larger groups gathering being banned - though I very much doubt that would happen anyway should it be allowed. Our neighboring countries who opted for total lockdown are slowly starting to open up too. I think the death toll in pretty much any country will be primarily depending on how well you’ve protected your elderly. We’ve done OK but could certainly have done better. Though still very far from the “devastatingly wrong” claim above.
- anon84598 7y ago
  Sweden isn't performing a lot of tests for one: https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figur...
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    Why do they need to perform a lot of tests if their strategy isn't dependent on testing?
    - ashtonkem 7y ago
      Because if there’s a giant spike of currently asymptomatic carriers, you’d want to know.
      - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        I definitely want to know. But it seems like Swedish public policy is that the current measures are the strictest sustainable ones, so they're going to maintain them until strict measures are no longer needed. It's not clear that early visibility of a spike would change that.
        ashtonkem 7y ago
        Given that mortality rate is closely tied to the availability of ventilators, it would be catastrophically short sighted to not react to a spike with strong, short term measures.
icelancer 7y ago
Far too early to say this is "devastatingly wrong." The number under the curve matters more than random spikes (that don't oversaturate the health system, BTW).

JamisonM 7y ago

I think Russia is already setting that example, really no need for two. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-russia-spike-cases-1.5533647 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-russia-spike-cases-1....

vtail 7y ago
Moscow and most of the other places in Russia are on a complete lockdown for more than a week now - much stricter that eg. NY or California. I’m not sure what do you mean by your comment.
- JamisonM 7y ago
  I think if you read the article I linked to you can see what I mean. They were forbidding medical staff from doing tests and treatments! ... In an interview with CBC News on Monday, Dr. Rimma Kamalova, who heads the hospital's rheumatology department and is quarantined in the facility, said when the outbreak started, regional health authorities refused to test patients for coronavirus. "According to our policies ... we could not do testing on coronavirus," she said. "We had orders, at that time, not to give this diagnosis and take the relevant [mitigation] measures." ...
2019-nCoV 7y ago
Russia is honestly handling the crisis better than most of the western world. They've done >1.6M tests with a positivity rate of 1.7%.
- khuey 7y ago
  The number of cases China is reporting in travelers arriving from Russia strongly suggests that Russia is significantly underreporting the scope of its outbreak.
- seppin 7y ago
  That positive rate is far too low. If you get < 15% anywhere with a proven widespread outbreak you aren't doing enough testing.

perl4ever 7y ago

Does it make any difference one way or the other? If the response is vital, then some country will get it "devastatingly wrong", and then won't that produce a new wave after a bit everywhere else? Won't that just be a sequel to the first cycle, where things seemed under control, it was downplayed, and then it got going outside of China. Why should anyone expect other than a fractal replay?

reinkaos 7y ago

It is already happening in the US.