8 ms·

The leading cause of death in the US on Apr 6 was Covid-19

80 points by 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
>> Disclaimer: COVID-19 data is the number of ACTUAL US deaths since March 15th, 2020 as reported on Worldometer against the backdrop of the EXTRAPOLATED DAILY number of deaths for top 15 causes of death in the US based on the latest (2018) data from the CDC. This chart is not meant to represent statistical analysis of any kind, it is meant for visual purposes only to help raise public awareness of the exponentially increasing COVID-19 deaths in the US This is a really awful chart. The number of deaths from Covid-19 is animated as they increase day-by-day, but the numbers of deaths from all other causes remain constant. These numbers (the blue bars) are stated to be the "EXTRAPOLATED DAILY numbers of deaths from the top 15 causes of death in the US" (other than Covid-19), but if they are "DAILY" numbers, why aren't they changing daily? The last sentence in the disclaimer is at least honest about it: this graph has no real information content. I for one find this graph to only serve the purpose of sensationalising a situation that is already dramatic enough without the need of animations and special effects. Really. The only thing missing is epic music in the background. Something from Carmina Burana, perhaps.
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
  The "extrapolated daily" seems to be a weird way of saying "on average". And I think it's reasonable enough to do, because I don't think this data exists at daily granularity, and even if it did the daily variation would not be particularly meaningful. The chart's really only making a single point, which is that yesterday, more people in the US (probably) died of COVID than anything else. And the figures are likely to get worse before they get better.
kozikow 7y ago
A version that removes "one week average" as the latest value: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1852838 https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1852838
T3RMINATED 7y ago
funny how the others dont move, this is fake news.
artemonster 7y ago
I don't understand how to deal with deniers anymore. I've tried sharing a lot of explanations/articles/videos to the "tis just a flu, bro" crowd from my friends and this convinced nobody. I guess showing even this fact/statistic would do nothing too. Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd? (well, besides bashing their heads with something heavy)
- vrinstan 7y ago
  You seem to imply that you are holding the greater truth. You also imply that people that don't hold your views need some "cure", they are somehow sick. Haha! Question yourself why you think like that before trying to cure the others.
- g8oz 7y ago
  >> Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd? With these people stories and narratives work better than facts and figures. Try sharing articles of people suffering and/or losing their loved ones. HN types use numbers to assess impact, these folks judge impact by how much emotion they've been lead to feel.
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  I think they emotionally cloak in denial, or something like that. Its not about being convinced. Its about not wanting to be convinced. Maybe a reminder of that would help. "It doesn't actually make it better, to just ignore it. It isn't going to go away if you pretend?"
- StavrosK 7y ago
  No, they like feeling "in the know" while the rest of us are "swindled by the rhetoric". They're very damaging to the population and I don't know how we can handle them.
  - simion314 7y ago
    I think some of the denial is because of the lockdown, the lockdown is affecting their financials, money is more valuable for them then life or medics and some other guys so the lockdown is a mistake, the rest is a lot of number manipulating to prove why we need to remove the lockdown and make money again. I mean if you see the situation in Italy and Spain and you still say "it is just flu, nothing different then usual" then there is no reality that can save you, maybe if you get sick and end in one of those hospitals...
9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
From the disclaimer: COVID-19 data is the number of ACTUAL US deaths since March 15th, 2020 as reported on Worldometer against the backdrop of the EXTRAPOLATED DAILY number of deaths for top 15 causes of death in the US based on the latest (2018) data from the CDC.
- iso1631 7y ago
  And crucially ignores the reduction in deaths from heart failure, road traffic, etc. at this time
  - pedrocr 7y ago
    If the objective is to put the risk in perspective, then comparing to normal times makes more sense. Our perceived risk of dying in a car crash is based on the times we are actually normally driving and not when we are quarantined at home.
  - Lewton 7y ago
    Heart failure sure but road traffic related deaths? Really? COVID-19 is not causing a decrease in road traffic deaths, the reaction to COVID-19 is. So, why would that data ever be relevant when talking about the disease?
    - iso1631 7y ago
      Because that also needs to be factored in when trying to determine causes If total deaths doesn't change, but road traffic deaths are down by 500, that means non-road-traffic deaths are up 500 You need a complete picture to draw conclusions
deleted 7y ago
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deleted 7y ago
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coldcode 7y ago
At least the Covid-19 deaths have a limit, whereas many of the others will remain constant for a much longer time. The sadness of this disease is for many countries it did not need to be so bad. I wonder if we as a country (US) will learn anything from this.
- andruby 7y ago
  What is the limit for Covid-19 deaths? We don't know yet if we'll get a working vaccine or if immunity from antibodies lasts long enough. What we have at the moment are educated guesses. If Covid-19 becomes endemic, it could be a death cause that is always present like influenza. This might be a bit morbid, but every death cause has a limit, the whole population..
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
mmmmmyumyum 7y ago
How do you know that this was the cause of death when all we know is that these people were tested positive on Covid19 before they died? Not denying that Covid19 is a thing and measures are necessary but I think this question is valid when reading such headlines.
- s9w 7y ago
  A positive test is not even necessary to report them as Covid-19 deaths in the US. > Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test? > COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
  - mmmmmyumyum 7y ago
    Thanks!
  - DanBC 7y ago
    > A positive test is not even necessary to report them as Covid-19 deaths in the US. But this applies to other forms of death. We count flu deaths in the same way, so the data is equally skewed. > > > COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. People can only put it on the death certificate if they can make that assumption to the best of their knowledge or belief. It's not doctors guessing.
    - _-___________-_ 7y ago
      > We count flu deaths in the same way, so the data is equally skewed. We actually don't, because flu is not routinely tested for the way that COVID-19 currently is among suspected cases.
      - 7y ago
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
testplzignore 7y ago
It would be interesting to see the same chart but limited to just deaths that occur in hospitals.
Turing_Machine 7y ago
> This chart is not meant to represent statistical analysis of any kind Okay.
- Turing_Machine 7y ago
  Longer comment: "I'm admitting that my chart is totally meaningless, but it sure does look scary!"
Murkin 7y ago
Since the other causes of death remain static in this chart, its hard to tell if Covid-19 are new cases or "take away from other causes" (and by what percentage). Would be interesting to see daily chart of Covid-19 deaths as % of total deaths and daily total deaths. PS. Extra points - number of deaths due to lockdowns (suicides, unaccessible healthcare, etc)
- 2019-nCoV 7y ago
  The long tail of deaths that have been subverted must also be taken into account, e.g. take those who would have otherwise passed in the near future to lung disease who succumb to the virus, they inflate this number, but next year's lung disease numbers will be proportionately lower.
- tomjakubowski 7y ago
  One data point: in New York City, deaths at home have increased from about 20-25 per day to 245, averaged over a recent week. https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-ho...
  - chmod775 7y ago
    That's... more misleading thsn useful by itself. Of course when people they die they'll do so at home when they can't be somewhere else.
- iso1631 7y ago
  Indeed, this is the key question, what are the number of excess deaths compared with this time last year. Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed (e.g. "number of deaths registered last week") for any country or region in the world? If you die of heart failure and happen to be covid infected (which is likely given how widespread it is) do you go down as a covid death rather than a heart failure?
  - iso1631 7y ago
nimbius 7y ago
the link to the data for the CDC does not seem to match the graph...perhaps im reading this wrong? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm if we're mapping based on the 2018 numbers the CDC provide then 49925 per month or ~12k per week is the cancer rate... Diabetes is around 1700, not 200.
- bob_bob_bob 7y ago
  The chart is showing deaths per day
caffed 7y ago
Wow, the rapid increase is definitely alarming. Side note: gun violence would average number 3 or 4, if not for the tireless lobbying from the NRA to block health impact research. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/ https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/
- virmundi 7y ago
  What we’ve learned from this Corona scare is the best way to protect people is to incarcerate them in their own homes. Take guns and hard instruments from people. Isolate everyone into their own cell would reduce the murder rate to zero. All communication would go through the Internet. No chance for physical abuse any more. No more transmission of disease since we’ve shutdown direct human interactions. It would be the perfectly safe world. Of course agency gets thrown out the window.
tomohawk 7y ago
Take a look at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus This chart in particular: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-deaths-covid-19?country=USA+OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-deaths-covid-19?cou... It's showing a doubling of daily confirmed deaths since last week. This is a lagging statistic, of course, but it's one of the more firm ones. The total confirmed deaths can be seen here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?country=OWID_WRL+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?cou... To put this into perspective, we're about halfway to the 23,000 flu deaths in the US for the entire flu season this year. At the current rate, though, we'll be past that by next week. For more perspective, the 1957 Asian Flu killed about 70,000 people in the US (1 - 2 million worldwide), and our population at that time was 177 million (about half of today). According to this chart: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-daily-deaths-epidemiological-trajectory https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-daily-dea... we may be just at the start of bending the curve. We're a much larger country than some of the others shown in our group (add Italy, France, UK, Spain, and Germany, and we still have more people). EDIT: According to: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemi... The number of deaths for the 1957 Asian Flu in the US was 116,000, at a time when we had half the population of today.
75dvtwin 7y ago
CDC guidelines appear to ask medical professional, to over-report COVID as a cause of death, if there is reasonable suspicion, but not a definite diagnosis. I am not sure if this right/wrong, and how different it is from guidelines relating, to say, flu as a cause of death. > "... In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible. ..." [1] As an hypothetical example, if a deceased was in a contact with covid-positive person, but the deceased was not tested for Covid, should the cause of death be noted as 'presumed covid-19'? [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pd https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pd

80 points by 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

>> Disclaimer: COVID-19 data is the number of ACTUAL US deaths since March 15th, 2020 as reported on Worldometer against the backdrop of the EXTRAPOLATED DAILY number of deaths for top 15 causes of death in the US based on the latest (2018) data from the CDC. This chart is not meant to represent statistical analysis of any kind, it is meant for visual purposes only to help raise public awareness of the exponentially increasing COVID-19 deaths in the US This is a really awful chart. The number of deaths from Covid-19 is animated as they increase day-by-day, but the numbers of deaths from all other causes remain constant. These numbers (the blue bars) are stated to be the "EXTRAPOLATED DAILY numbers of deaths from the top 15 causes of death in the US" (other than Covid-19), but if they are "DAILY" numbers, why aren't they changing daily? The last sentence in the disclaimer is at least honest about it: this graph has no real information content. I for one find this graph to only serve the purpose of sensationalising a situation that is already dramatic enough without the need of animations and special effects. Really. The only thing missing is epic music in the background. Something from Carmina Burana, perhaps.

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
The "extrapolated daily" seems to be a weird way of saying "on average". And I think it's reasonable enough to do, because I don't think this data exists at daily granularity, and even if it did the daily variation would not be particularly meaningful. The chart's really only making a single point, which is that yesterday, more people in the US (probably) died of COVID than anything else. And the figures are likely to get worse before they get better.

kozikow 7y ago

A version that removes "one week average" as the latest value: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1852838 https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1852838

T3RMINATED 7y ago

funny how the others dont move, this is fake news.

artemonster 7y ago

I don't understand how to deal with deniers anymore. I've tried sharing a lot of explanations/articles/videos to the "tis just a flu, bro" crowd from my friends and this convinced nobody. I guess showing even this fact/statistic would do nothing too. Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd? (well, besides bashing their heads with something heavy)

vrinstan 7y ago
You seem to imply that you are holding the greater truth. You also imply that people that don't hold your views need some "cure", they are somehow sick. Haha! Question yourself why you think like that before trying to cure the others.
g8oz 7y ago
>> Is there a cure or a method to convert such dense crowd? With these people stories and narratives work better than facts and figures. Try sharing articles of people suffering and/or losing their loved ones. HN types use numbers to assess impact, these folks judge impact by how much emotion they've been lead to feel.
JoeAltmaier 7y ago
I think they emotionally cloak in denial, or something like that. Its not about being convinced. Its about not wanting to be convinced. Maybe a reminder of that would help. "It doesn't actually make it better, to just ignore it. It isn't going to go away if you pretend?"
StavrosK 7y ago
No, they like feeling "in the know" while the rest of us are "swindled by the rhetoric". They're very damaging to the population and I don't know how we can handle them.
- simion314 7y ago
  I think some of the denial is because of the lockdown, the lockdown is affecting their financials, money is more valuable for them then life or medics and some other guys so the lockdown is a mistake, the rest is a lot of number manipulating to prove why we need to remove the lockdown and make money again. I mean if you see the situation in Italy and Spain and you still say "it is just flu, nothing different then usual" then there is no reality that can save you, maybe if you get sick and end in one of those hospitals...

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

From the disclaimer: COVID-19 data is the number of ACTUAL US deaths since March 15th, 2020 as reported on Worldometer against the backdrop of the EXTRAPOLATED DAILY number of deaths for top 15 causes of death in the US based on the latest (2018) data from the CDC.

iso1631 7y ago
And crucially ignores the reduction in deaths from heart failure, road traffic, etc. at this time
- pedrocr 7y ago
  If the objective is to put the risk in perspective, then comparing to normal times makes more sense. Our perceived risk of dying in a car crash is based on the times we are actually normally driving and not when we are quarantined at home.
- Lewton 7y ago
  Heart failure sure but road traffic related deaths? Really? COVID-19 is not causing a decrease in road traffic deaths, the reaction to COVID-19 is. So, why would that data ever be relevant when talking about the disease?
  - iso1631 7y ago
    Because that also needs to be factored in when trying to determine causes If total deaths doesn't change, but road traffic deaths are down by 500, that means non-road-traffic deaths are up 500 You need a complete picture to draw conclusions

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

coldcode 7y ago

At least the Covid-19 deaths have a limit, whereas many of the others will remain constant for a much longer time. The sadness of this disease is for many countries it did not need to be so bad. I wonder if we as a country (US) will learn anything from this.

andruby 7y ago
What is the limit for Covid-19 deaths? We don't know yet if we'll get a working vaccine or if immunity from antibodies lasts long enough. What we have at the moment are educated guesses. If Covid-19 becomes endemic, it could be a death cause that is always present like influenza. This might be a bit morbid, but every death cause has a limit, the whole population..
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

mmmmmyumyum 7y ago

How do you know that this was the cause of death when all we know is that these people were tested positive on Covid19 before they died? Not denying that Covid19 is a thing and measures are necessary but I think this question is valid when reading such headlines.

s9w 7y ago
A positive test is not even necessary to report them as Covid-19 deaths in the US. > Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test? > COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-I...
- mmmmmyumyum 7y ago
  Thanks!
- DanBC 7y ago
  > A positive test is not even necessary to report them as Covid-19 deaths in the US. But this applies to other forms of death. We count flu deaths in the same way, so the data is equally skewed. > > > COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. People can only put it on the death certificate if they can make that assumption to the best of their knowledge or belief. It's not doctors guessing.
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    > We count flu deaths in the same way, so the data is equally skewed. We actually don't, because flu is not routinely tested for the way that COVID-19 currently is among suspected cases.
    - 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

testplzignore 7y ago

It would be interesting to see the same chart but limited to just deaths that occur in hospitals.

Turing_Machine 7y ago

> This chart is not meant to represent statistical analysis of any kind Okay.

Turing_Machine 7y ago
Longer comment: "I'm admitting that my chart is totally meaningless, but it sure does look scary!"

Murkin 7y ago

Since the other causes of death remain static in this chart, its hard to tell if Covid-19 are new cases or "take away from other causes" (and by what percentage). Would be interesting to see daily chart of Covid-19 deaths as % of total deaths and daily total deaths. PS. Extra points - number of deaths due to lockdowns (suicides, unaccessible healthcare, etc)

2019-nCoV 7y ago
The long tail of deaths that have been subverted must also be taken into account, e.g. take those who would have otherwise passed in the near future to lung disease who succumb to the virus, they inflate this number, but next year's lung disease numbers will be proportionately lower.
tomjakubowski 7y ago
One data point: in New York City, deaths at home have increased from about 20-25 per day to 245, averaged over a recent week. https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-ho...
- chmod775 7y ago
  That's... more misleading thsn useful by itself. Of course when people they die they'll do so at home when they can't be somewhere else.
iso1631 7y ago
Indeed, this is the key question, what are the number of excess deaths compared with this time last year. Are mortality statistics available to that sort of granularity and speed (e.g. "number of deaths registered last week") for any country or region in the world? If you die of heart failure and happen to be covid infected (which is likely given how widespread it is) do you go down as a covid death rather than a heart failure?
- iso1631 7y ago

nimbius 7y ago

the link to the data for the CDC does not seem to match the graph...perhaps im reading this wrong? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm if we're mapping based on the 2018 numbers the CDC provide then 49925 per month or ~12k per week is the cancer rate... Diabetes is around 1700, not 200.

bob_bob_bob 7y ago
The chart is showing deaths per day

caffed 7y ago

Wow, the rapid increase is definitely alarming. Side note: gun violence would average number 3 or 4, if not for the tireless lobbying from the NRA to block health impact research. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/ https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

virmundi 7y ago
What we’ve learned from this Corona scare is the best way to protect people is to incarcerate them in their own homes. Take guns and hard instruments from people. Isolate everyone into their own cell would reduce the murder rate to zero. All communication would go through the Internet. No chance for physical abuse any more. No more transmission of disease since we’ve shutdown direct human interactions. It would be the perfectly safe world. Of course agency gets thrown out the window.

tomohawk 7y ago

Take a look at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus This chart in particular: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-deaths-covid-19?country=USA+OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-deaths-covid-19?cou... It's showing a doubling of daily confirmed deaths since last week. This is a lagging statistic, of course, but it's one of the more firm ones. The total confirmed deaths can be seen here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?country=OWID_WRL+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?cou... To put this into perspective, we're about halfway to the 23,000 flu deaths in the US for the entire flu season this year. At the current rate, though, we'll be past that by next week. For more perspective, the 1957 Asian Flu killed about 70,000 people in the US (1 - 2 million worldwide), and our population at that time was 177 million (about half of today). According to this chart: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-daily-deaths-epidemiological-trajectory https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-daily-dea... we may be just at the start of bending the curve. We're a much larger country than some of the others shown in our group (add Italy, France, UK, Spain, and Germany, and we still have more people). EDIT: According to: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemi... The number of deaths for the 1957 Asian Flu in the US was 116,000, at a time when we had half the population of today.

75dvtwin 7y ago

CDC guidelines appear to ask medical professional, to over-report COVID as a cause of death, if there is reasonable suspicion, but not a definite diagnosis. I am not sure if this right/wrong, and how different it is from guidelines relating, to say, flu as a cause of death. > "... In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible. ..." [1] As an hypothetical example, if a deceased was in a contact with covid-positive person, but the deceased was not tested for Covid, should the cause of death be noted as 'presumed covid-19'? [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pd https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pd