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Shelter in place for Bay Area counties
- avalys 7y agoInsane that this is happening without federal coordination. The text of the order itself is not available. I hope it is not as poorly thought out as the article suggests. What about home maintenance providers - plumbers and electricians? Surely they must be allowed to perform essential services. Delivery personnel - can I still order things from Amazon? What if I need medical supplies or equipment that is not available from a local provider, who will deliver it?
- thatfunkymunki 7y agoTFA explicitly mentions some things you're talking about: >Everyone is to work from home, or stop working, unless they provide an essential service, which includes health care workers; police, fire and other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians, plumbers, and sanitation workers.
- wolfgang42 7y agoThe only thing that covers is electricians and plumbers, and that in the context of utility providers; it's not clear whether it also covers them if they don't work for a utility company. [Edited for clarity.] Edit2, from the FAQ that was just posted: "plumbers, electricians, exterminators, and other service providers who provide services that are necessary to maintaining the safety and sanitation" are exempt from the order.
- gothroach 7y agoThat's what I'd like to have clarified - I'm an electrician but not a utility worker.
- csense 7y agoI know an electrician who was doing a job in a hospital last week. Even if an electrician doesn't work for a utility company, isn't it pretty vital that medical facilities are able to call him/her in if needed? I'm also thinking it's not wise to forbid services to homes. Yes, this risks homeowners and workers spreading coronavirus. But there are bigger risks from people going extended periods without electricity / running water.
- qsymmachus 7y ago> Insane that this is happening without federal coordination Not surprising, because the feds are providing zero leadership right now. Just today, Trump told the governors on a conference call that they should "get their own ventilators". We should not expect competent and engaged leadership from this administration any time soon.
- tathougies 7y agoThat's quite the fake news you got there. Trump said governors should feel free to provision their own if they have a faster pipeline, rather than waiting for the fed's orders to arrive and then have to apply, etc. But to claim the federal government has not bought equipment it plans to distribute is a lie .
- wolfgang42 7y agoTo clarify, this is what the president stated about 30 minutes ago during the ongoing press conference, when asked about his previous statement. Before that we only had the unqualified phrase.
- Animats 7y agoMore reasonable stuff is coming out of Trump now. This is encouraging. Amusingly, this morning, there was zero Trump content on the Fox News home page. All epidemic info was from more reliable sources. The story behind that must be interesting.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- pengaru 7y ago“Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves,” Mr. Trump told the governors during the conference call, a recording of which was shared with The New York Times. “We will be backing you, but try getting it yourselves. Point of sales, much better, much more direct if you can get it yourself.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-respirators.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/politics/trump-coronav...
- wolfgang42 7y ago> The text of the order itself is not available. Apparently a TV station broke the embargo early, the announcement wasn't to happen until 1pm local time (in 10 minutes, as I write this). Edit: now available here: https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs
- tathougies 7y ago> Insane that this is happening without federal coordination. Um... it's good. States have more powers than the federal government, being the primary sovereign entities in the united states of america. Also, most of the united states (and most states of the united states) are not affected the way the west coast and new england are.
- dnautics 7y agominor nitpick, "being the primary sovereign entities" is de jure. De facto, the primary sovereign entity has become the federal government. That said I completely agree that it's a wonderful thing that these things are happening at the local (not even state) level. That's the most sensible thing, really. Other things, like disease spread tracking, should probably happen at the federal level. But absent a missing amendment that I don't know about legally (A pity, the framers didn't know about disease theory) there's no clear mandate for that, which contributes to the ambiguity of what the feds should or shouldn't do about this, which becomes a matter of judgement, and there are certainly pros and cons to both stances.
- tathougies 7y agoSure, but the states still have the power to do way more than uncle sam without much oversight. They should exercise it at times like these. Moreover, as I stated, this is only at crisis levels in some parts of the country. Local action could have prevented a bigger outbreak overall. Some states are taking much more preemptive action and will be better off because of it, like Ohio.
- blintz 7y agoThree weeks is very long to lock down 6.7 million people. I assume that enforcement will be assisted by someone like the National Guard. Wonder if there will be a large fleeing out of the area (since people are not forbidden from leaving).
- conroy 7y agoPlease read the article. Shelter in place is not lockdown, as it is not enforced for residents.
- crazydoggers 7y agoIt’s not accurate to say this will not be enforced for residents. From article: > The order calls for the sheriff or chief of police to “ensure compliance.” > All non-essential gatherings of any size are now banned, along with non-essential travel “on foot, bicycle, scooter, automobile or public transit.” People may travel for shopping for necessary supplies, accessing health care, and providing aid to family and friends who need assistance, and for non-residents, returning to their home outside the Bay Area.
- lsh123 7y agoCool, I can still fly away in a plane :)
- crazydoggers 7y agoYes you can! Because it’s trying to limit people interacting rather than simply people’s movement. Still doesn’t speak to it not being enforced.
- onetimemanytime 7y agoIt's not gonna be three weeks, we're not that lucky.
- 7y ago
- elguap0 7y agoCan still go to groceries and stuff no? Will shipping be affected?
- conroy 7y agoPlease read the article. It lists the types of businesses which will remain open, which include grocery stores.
- wolfgang42 7y agoBut mentions nothing about shipping. Edit: From the FAQ that was just posted, "Businesses that ship or deliver groceries, food, goods or services directly to residences" are an essential service and can continue operating.
- ljoshua 7y agoArticle says grocery stores and pharmacies will stay open for those needing essentials.
- danso 7y agoThe article says shopping is still allowed: > People in the six counties will still be able to go shopping for items such as food and household supplies, and seek medical care. They will be able to go outside for walks or exercise as long as they keep six feet away from anyone they don’t already live with.
- elguap0 7y agoWhat about shipping? Will this affect supply lines? I understand local things will be open but will the supply be able to get to em?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- hashamali 7y agoImportant caveat: Grocery stores and pharmacies will remain open, and restaurants may stay open to provide takeout food only. Also staying open: veterinary services, gas stations and auto repair shops, hardware and other home supply stores, banks and laundry services. Daycare centers may stay open, but children must be kept in groups no larger than 12, and they must stay with the same group of children every day.
- m4rtink 7y agoThis is pretty much a copy-paste what we did here in Czech Republic ~2 days ago, with less stringent stuff gradually comming before that. As such rules are IMHO quite sensible and effective, it is a good thing others are applying them as well. I guess that could be another reason to act quick on stuff like this - so that others can see this is possible and apply it themselves.
- rconti 7y agoThey also explicitly talked about going out to walk the dog, go for a hike, etc, as long as you keep your distance. (presumably, not from the person you live with and will get infected by anyway) I'm not particularly interested in getting in a bike crash and taxing the ER even further, but i'll be avoiding cabin fever for sure.
- nitrogen 7y agothe person you live with I wonder how this crisis and lockdown will affect dating and future birth rates.
- reaperducer 7y agoBased on previous events, maybe not much: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/opinion/letters/central-park-blackout-babies.html?referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/opinion/letters/central-p... But that was only a one day event.
- 7y ago
- BurningFrog 7y agoAnd of course the homeless are exempt. Don't think China or Singapore have that issue...
- ahelwer 7y agoBecause of robust social housing policies, yes. Homeless people exist but are much more rare. A large number of homeless people is the mark of a weak, dysfunctional society.
- wolfgang42 7y agoYeah, it's difficult to shelter in place when you don't have any shelter.
- Animats 7y agoSF is getting trailers, but not sure where they intend to put them.
- dnautics 7y agoI guess they're not technically homeless, but there's rat tribes and ant tribes in china. I wouldn't want to be living in those conditions if covid came to beijing.
- ahelwer 7y agoCovid already came to Beijing and has been contained very effectively.
- _jal 7y agoIn your estimation, where should the homeless confine themselves?
- BurningFrog 7y agoI think the Bay Area should allow building of hundreds of thousands of new homes. With many more homes, far fewer will be homeless. I realize this is on a much different timescale than the epidemic, even if something impossible would be allowed.
- rlt 7y ago> The order calls for the sheriff or chief of police to “ensure compliance.” What does this mean?
- lsllc 7y agoI'm genuinely curious as to the legality of any kind of lockdown order (presumably that's the next step). I don't doubt that people really need to stay home, away from others in order to stop the spread. But can the governor or a mayor actually order you to stay home under penalty of law? We've heard that in Italy there are fines and jail time ... but does that even pass constitutional muster here in terms of freedom of movement?
- ghayes 7y agoThere's a lot of interesting questions here. Constitutionally speaking (at the Federal level), there is an express right given to the Executive branch: "The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it." This situation would certainly fall under the latter condition.
- joshuamorton 7y agoReread that, it's not public safety in general, but public safety due to invasion or rebellion.
- gamblor956 7y agoReread that, this is a limitation on Congress's power to limit habeus corpus, not the executive's power.
- solidasparagus 7y agoI don't think we dealing with either Rebellion or Invasion
- 7y ago
- ta1234567890 7y agoHow about medical cannabis? Will people still be able to get it?
- cannaceo 7y agoMost shops are staying open until they’re force closed. Seeing a lot of curbside pickup. Brands across the board are canceling patient appreciation days but are allowing the shops to run the deals on their own.
- p1mrx 7y agoAt this point, it should all be considered medical. Cannabis is an effective way to accelerate the perceived passage of time when you're stuck alone at home for months.
- JadeNB 7y ago> Cannabis is an effective way to accelerate the perceived passage of time when you're stuck alone at home for months. Accelerate? Maybe medical marijuana is different, but my non-medical experience was of time seeming to stretch out forever, not to speed by.
- earthboundkid 7y agoReminds me of the game Super Hexagon. It’s a great game but a terrible time killer because you need all of your concentration to survive for… one minute. Most of the time you’re dead in less than 10 seconds. It’s terrible when you’re killing time at the bus stop.
- sharadov 7y agoThere is https://www.eaze.com/ https://www.eaze.com/ if you are afraid to make a run.
- makeitrein 7y agohttps://www.iheartjane.com/ https://www.iheartjane.com/ does delivery and will soon offer curb-side pickup for select stores.
- scarejunba 7y agoAnecdotally, traffic on the main street by my home looks normal, judging by what I can see out my window in SF. Had a motorcade go by just now but apart from that.
- hisnameisjimmy 7y agoAnother important one: > Under the order, residents will still be allowed to take a walk, exercise or take a pet out to use the bathroom as long as people remain at least six-feet away from others who are not a member of their own household.
- TomVDB 7y agoI was wondering about the exercising part: do I need to feel guilty about going out for a run or a bike ride (by myself, of course) ?
- davidw 7y agoIn Italy, they've actually banned bike riding as a training activity since you're not supposed to go far from home, and out of an abundance of caution: if you hurt yourself you might be tying up desperately needed medical services, and also going near the hospitals full of COVID-19 patients. Seems like it'd be a good idea to limit really big, difficult workouts in order to not tire yourself out too much, and probably stay close to home as well.
- leftyted 7y ago(A bit off topic) The current situation is a good argument for owning a car. I don't own a car -- I take the subway to work (about 25 minutes each way). But it seems dumb to use the subway at this time, which means I have to work from home. If I had a car, I'd feel safe commuting.
- mattnewton 7y agoBut wouldn’t going into the office also be less than ideal here?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- taborj 7y agoTrust me, you want your police and fire (and doctors and nurses) to be "going into the office."
- mattnewton 7y agoOh definitely, I guess I assumed OP was not in an essential sector like that since they mentioned working from home.
- Analemma_ 7y agoIf you didn't already need it before this went down, a car is an awfully expensive item to have just for a black swan event like this.
- pengaru 7y agoIndeed, public transportation is the worst option when it comes to sanitation.
- the_af 7y agoIn cases like this, however, it seems a car is the solution to the wrong problem: you should not be commuting at all. A car is also the "solution" to an individual problem -- "how do I get safely from A to B?" -- but this is a societal problem: "how do we as a society overcome this disease while causing as little damage as possible?". Solutions must be oriented towards the community, not the individual. Everyone using their cars, if they even have them, is not the solution.
- Analemma_ 7y agoWhat about delivery services? That's how a lot of people have been getting food and other goods lately.
- thrav 7y agoSays take out food is fine, so I’d imagine deliveries qualify.
- wolfgang42 7y agoFrom the FAQ that was just posted: "Businesses that ship or deliver groceries, food, goods or services directly to residences" are an essential service and can continue operating.
- wespiser_2018 7y agoI'd be curious to hear what the rationale for taking this exact measure is, versus something more or less severe. Yes, it's to stop the spread of the virus, but what information is going into this decision? Is this simply an effort to copy the effective strategies employed by China and Korea to slow down the virus, or based off a simulation/modelling effort?
- Diederich 7y agoI saw this post recently, which is I think a nice summary of the risks: https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUS/comments/fjld7n/thoughts_from_an_er_doctor/ https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUS/comments/fjld7n/thoug...
- generalpass 7y agoI notice they don't mention that lawyers may be advising closure to reduce liability.
- ralph84 7y agoOr even a basic cost/benefit analysis. "We expect this will save X lives, at a cost of $Y to the economy." Shouldn't someone be doing that analysis? There are lots of things that would save lives if we did them (e.g. ban cars), but we don't because the cost is too high.
- moverthrowaway 7y agoDoes anyone know if this is legally binding, or just a recommendation? I'm moving from one of the affected counties to another of them very soon. I've already paid a deposit on movers and signed a lease, and I need to move out of my old apartment or I'll be paying rent in two high-rent areas at the same time. I can't afford to pay over $7000/mo while I wait to see when this will be lifted. If my movers refuse to disobey the health order then I don't know what I'm going to do. I just don't have the money...
- cannaceo 7y agoCall the new landlord and ask them to delay the move in date.
- moverthrowaway 7y agoI definitely can't do that, because I have a job that I'm moving to take.
- tezzer 7y agoUnless the job is in a pharmacy, grocery store or hospital, your start date may have just moved right by at least a month Or at least you won't be going into the office.
- cjbprime 7y agoIf your new job is in an affected county as you said, then this order appears to require the new company not to allow you to enter its offices.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Redoubts 7y agoYeah, I'm having similar problems but I'm trying to go across country.
- AJ007 7y ago
- wolfgang42 7y agoFrom the press conference, less than 30 seconds ago: “this order is enforceable as a misdemeanor, but that is an absolute last resort.”
- mlindner 7y agoSo basically, ignore it and use your own best judgement.
- rconti 7y agoMore like, generally follow it, and don't be an asshole, so that you get the benefit of the doubt when you choose to break it for a good reason.
- jameslevy 7y agoThis probably means, in practical terms, to obey a police officer's request to go home unless you know you are doing something important.
- dsfyu404ed 7y agoI think in practice this will be a warning or civil infraction unless you make a bad impression on the cop since that is basically how every other crime where the officer had the discretion to choose between civil/criminal goes.
- jMyles 7y agoAre any well-informed researchers recommending this level of lockdown? At least some experts, including CIDRAP, are opposed to closing schools, let alone locking people down. Is anyone seriously considering and commenting on the damage this policy will do to vulnerable populations? This seemingly solid paper[0], published in the Journal of Medical Virology, shows Vitamin D to be an important intervention. And obviously fresh air and sun are generally important for health and well-being. These steps seem uninformed, authoritarian, and wrong-headed. 0: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25707 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25707
- raphlinus 7y agoFrom what I can see, these steps are informed, authoritarian, and right-headed. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... is one citation. And with all due respect, what relevance does Vitamin D have to do with the price of tea in China? I hope you're not suggesting this thing will magically go away if we just get our vitamin supplementation right. Do you have a citation on CIDRAP opposing school closures? I couldn't easily find it.
- jMyles 7y ago> these steps are informed, authoritarian, and right-headed I have to say, I think this is a very insensitive thing to say. Being in a position of privilege to likely avoid the consequences of authoritarian tendencies is wonderful, but most people don't enjoy such a position. Authoritarian tactics are per se wrong. > And with all due respect, what relevance does Vitamin D have to do with the price of tea in China? I hope you're not suggesting this thing will magically go away if we just get our vitamin supplementation right. I didn't suggest that, no. But it is one of the interventions that makes sense. And generally, obviously, fresh air and exercise are important for overall health and wellness. Tangentially related: warmth and humidity is likely, according to some researchers, to drastically reduce replication and transmission. [0] [1] So getting out in the sun (with reasonable social distancing) can't hurt, and it might help. (Even more tangentially: some researchers believe that very high heats, such as with sauna therapy, can even further reduce replication, based on this 2004 paper [2]) 0: https://nusmedicine.nus.edu.sg/medias/news-info/2230-hot-and-humid-weather-may-end-the-novel-coronavirus https://nusmedicine.nus.edu.sg/medias/news-info/2230-hot-and... 1: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 2: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/14722281/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/14722281/ > Do you have a citation on CIDRAP opposing school closures? I couldn't easily find it. Michael Osterholm himself has spoken extensively on his apprehension about shelter-in-place as a policy to combat coronaviruses, including COVID-19, including during his recent (very informative) interview with Joe Rogan, during which he specifically discussed school closings as well. [3] By the way, his contention is also that neither environment heat nor sauna therapy are supported by the data as likely mitigations. So different smart people are saying different things, as we might expect in such a situation. 3: https://www.youtube.com/embed/E3URhJx0NSw?autoplay=1&auto_play=true https://www.youtube.com/embed/E3URhJx0NSw?autoplay=1&auto_pl...
- mlindner 7y agoThis is ridiculous and completely overblown. WFH home is plenty along with simply avoiding crowded spaces. They better not do something stupid like close the airports I need to visit family beginning in April.
- shadowtree 7y agoMost of Europe has suspended all domestic flights. Why do you think this stupid? Why would the same not be necessary in a country of 300m people? You're not visiting anyone outside of your state in April. Start being calm about it now.
- mlindner 7y agoIn Europe countries are bounded by language, people don't travel cross country nearly as much as people travel cross state in the US.
- chickenpotpie 7y agoThey have way more vacation days, cheaper travel options, and most can speak multiple languages. I would think they travel more.
- rsanek 7y ago> Most of Europe has suspended all domestic flights As far as I can tell, this is untrue. Many countries have placed restrictions on international travel, but few have closed airports completely. Details available here: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-travel-restrictions.html https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-travel-restricti...
- shadowtree 7y agoThe equivalent of a flight from Austria/Vienna to Germany.Berlin is a flight from Georgia/Atlanta to Massachusetts/Boston. Vienna to Berlin is 425miles, same language, same currency. You can't fly from Vienna to Berlin right now. You can't take a train from Vienna to Berlin right now. You can't drive from Vienna to Berlin right now. You can't walk from Vienna to Berlin right now. Germany has closed its borders. Atlanta to Boston is 1025 miles, same language, same currency.
- wolfgang42 7y agoFull text of the order, more info, and FAQs: https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs
- geuis 7y agoThis is the full text: https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/files/HealthOrderC19-07-%20Shelter-in-Place.pdf https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/files/HealthOrderC19-07-%20...
- NonEUCitizen 7y agoSanta Clara county: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/order-health-officer-031620.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co...
- e40 7y agoAlameda County FAQ: http://www.acphd.org/media/559828/faqs-order-shelter-in-place-20200316.pdf http://www.acphd.org/media/559828/faqs-order-shelter-in-plac...
- spaginal 7y agoColor me skeptical with the absolute necessity of this. More and more I’m beginning to feel like these measures are being done to destroy small businesses while the local governments know they can simply beg for money from federal after the smoke clears. The timing and severity of these measures seems all too convenient in light of the huge money grab federal bill moving through the senate at this point.
- rconti 7y agoPlease return to this post in a few weeks and question what led you to be so wrong. It's sort of like when South Carolina became the last state to get rid of a law requiring all cocktails to be poured out of mini liquor bottles. There was much pearl-grasping about "what if the bars rip off their customers," and "what if bars pour too much alcohol and road DUI deaths shoot way up?" When, instead of coming with implausible or unlikely theories, you could just look at what is happening in other places and act accordingly.
- sink 7y agoIt's fairly easy to reason about the factors that go into the spread of the disease. We have diligent data from Japan, Korea, Spain, and Italy. All show infection curves with very similar shapes along the same timelines. What's more, we can see how quarantining measures have benefited Japan and Korea. Not to mention that the spread of infectious diseases, especially the flu, has been studying quite heavily with modern scientific methods for over a century. It is far more likely that these measures are being taken because they have been proven effective to prevent harm to citizens, than as a conspiracy to destroy small businesses. This disease is both very infectious and relatively very deadly. We know that the death rate can double or triple if emergency health care is not available. We also know that without dramatic quarantining measures, the number of people requiring emergency care will overwhelm our health care capacity. I am a San Francisco resident, and I am grateful that my local government is taking action. I agree with Mayor Breed's assessment that the federal government's response is terrible.
- nostromo 7y agoKorea is not using quarantine unless you have the infection or have been in contact with someone who does. They also have had the best results of any country to date.
- twblalock 7y agoIf we shelter in place and the disease is not eradicated, won't it just come back? It seems like we need to either eradicate it 100% or develop herd immunity by exposing as many people as possible. There is clearly value in limiting the rate of infection, but that means the shelter in place is just a rate limit, and we are in for something much longer than just a few weeks.
- deelowe 7y agoEveryone just needs to shelter in place long enough for testing capacity to improve. Early detection is key, but without that, we have to slow the spread.
- Gibbon1 7y agoFriends partners family in China were under lockdown for two months as the Chinese got a handle on getting testing up and running. I think the big reason for lock down is to break the transmission chains from a large diffuse network into a bunch of small poorly connected islands. If you do that the disease starts to burn itself out. Uninfected islands stay that way. Infected ones quickly develop heard immunity.
- deelowe 7y agoMakes sense. I'm afraid we're about to be at the point where a large portion of the US will need to shelter in place. I can't imagine us being able to do something like that for 2 months though.
- shartshooter 7y agoWe’ve been fortunate in the US to not have to shelter in place for an extended period of time in our history. We’ll get through this, just like everything else. It’ll take time, too many will die, but instead of remembering that most folks will likely complain about being stuck at home. Weddings/concerts/flights are all cancelled and the only way to get things back on track is to shelter in place long enough for us to get testing up and running and to isolate the virus. Half measures in this situation just won’t cut it and the longer we take to accept that, the more will die. Caveat: I’m a fortunate person who has the ability to work remotely. I realize that many don’t have enough savings to make it through a week, much less two months. I hope our safety net is there to support them as well as the business owners who will all be severely impacted.
- nostromo 7y agoWon't this just delay the outbreak for three weeks? It seems we're just trying to delay the inevitable. And before you respond about how we're trying to slow exposure so medical services are available -- that would imply we're going to need to quarantines for a few weeks every few weeks for, what, a year? More? There's no way this action is sustainable. This analysis suggests that actually flattening the curve would require us to slow this virus down over the course of a decade: https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea...
- raphlinus 7y agoflattenthecurve.com has a good general audience to smart person presentation on why this is needed. For a more expert audience, the recent report from Imperial College [1] provides detailed analysis. [1]: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... [edit, as apparently you edited your comment after I posted my response] The essay you linked praises the complete lockdown in Wuhan as being effective. That said, it's written by an AI researcher, as opposed to a public health expert.
- hardtke 7y agoBut given that it only applies to a limited geographical region with free movement in and out not restricted it is unclear it will have the desired effect. This policy needs to be at the state or national level to be effective.
- raphlinus 7y agoIt would be better to have a coordinated response on this. But as a wise leader once said, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
- rhizome 7y agoIt's not about a specifically bounded result, it's about being either a flatter curve or a taller one. The more people act in the interest of flattening the curve is the benefit.
- guiomie 7y agoDo you think gun shops will close? I read in the news a lot of people were lining up for guns recently in California. With that 10 days wait law, a lot of these people would not get their purchase before the stay in shelter takes effect. I also know the 2nd amendment is a big deal in the USA.
- NonEUCitizen 7y agoBay Area's view of 2nd amendment is somewhat different from what you perceive to be USA's view.
- erobbins 7y agoIf this gets extremely bad, many people will change their view. Unfortunately for them it will be too late.
- baby 7y ago> Do you think gun shops will close? You mean forever? Hopefully.
- jakeogh 7y agohttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22583594 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22583594
- aleatorisch 7y agoA surprising number of people commenting that this is an overreaction. I suggest reading this[1] and this[2] before you're so hasty to dismiss this. This is absolutely the right move (and if anything should have been done sooner). Also luckily the comment ranking here seems to mean your peers disagree with you. [1]: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... [2]: https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/
- generalpass 7y ago> A surprising number of people commenting that this is an overreaction. I suggest reading this[1] and this[2] before you're so hasty to dismiss this. This is absolutely the right move (and if anything should have been done sooner). > Also luckily the comment ranking here seems to mean your peers disagree with you. > [1]: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop.. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop.... > [2]: https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ I've noticed these discussions all revolve around problems related to the virus. However, these quarantine measures are also economic in their nature and I'm not seeing even the standard university economics professor trotted out in front of the press to support why this is all going to be okay. If you are concerned about old people, consider that their investments go belly-up, their pensions funds dry up, their house goes negative equity, and they cannot physically work. How bad is for them after this happens? Because this is what is going to happen with the economy shut down.
- scurvy 7y agoOld people are generally in bonds at this point in their life. Bonds have been on a tear lately. Their investments are doing OK.
- generalpass 7y ago> Old people are generally in bonds at this point in their life. Bonds have been on a tear lately. Their investments are doing OK. This is assuming no CPI increases from all the money creation, especially if they send the money directly to consumers, likely reducing the Cantillon effects. And "lately" isn't after weeks or months of substantially reduced economic activity.
- yumraj 7y agoDoes anyone know how these are enforced? Especially since the order says Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a misdemeanor punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.
- jmspring 7y agoThe wording of the Santa Clara order (only one I read) is interesting. If one splits time between two locations (both private residences) one residing in one of the impacted counties and one not, is transit between both allowed for? I'm going with the assumption that surrounding counties outside the six mentioned in the article will take up a similar measure.
- lsllc 7y agoAccording to below (and I don't know enough about the Bay Area geography to know if this covers your use-case), you cannot without leaving the area "for good" (until the order is lifted): > Am I allowed to leave the areas covered by this Order to travel to/from a vacation home outside the Bay Area? > No, except to the extent that you leave the Bay Area and do not travel back or are leaving for a permitted purpose. That kind of travel runs the risk of spreading the virus around the state or elsewhere, and that puts others at risk. Stay put and don’t risk exposing yourself or others. https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs#main-content https://sf.gov/stay-home-except-essential-needs#main-content (sorry, there's no anchor for the FAQ elements, you'll have to search for the text).
- asdf2gggasdf 7y agoIf you live in the bay area there's a non-trivial chance it's illegal for you to won firearms: Before everything shuts down tomorrow please fill out this form and grab a weapon (legally). https://oag.ca.gov/sites/all/files/agweb/pdfs/firearms/forms/pdf/pfecapp.pdf https://oag.ca.gov/sites/all/files/agweb/pdfs/firearms/forms... The recent bans on alcohol, firearms and more are proof that this is not just for "the health" of the population - typical nanny state nonsense. Authoritarianism has no place in this country.
- H8crilA 7y agoThat's one way to fight homelessness /s Seriously though it's as if all those things that America is lagging the world in seem to come together in one large event (financial over-leverage, lack of public health care, denial of facts at highest levels of government, poor sick leave, generally terrible social safety, low trust in the government).
- DeonPenny 7y agoLow trust in the government isn't an issue its literally the entire mantra for the US. And no offense it's been working better than trusting it.
- mumblemumble 7y agoFor certain values of "trust" and "working". For example, having the highest incarceration rate in the world would be consistent with both authoritarianism (a form of high trust in government) and not really working all that well.
- lotsofpulp 7y agoWhat a crazy statement. The reason the USD is so highly valued is because there is such high trust in the government. There’s a reason countries with low trust have to come to NYC to sell bonds. Society is much more productive when you don’t have to worry how much to bribe everyone.
- microcolonel 7y agoThe trust in the government comes from the skepticism of the citizens.
- arcticbull 7y agoNo, it really doesn't. It's a hold-over from a time when the government could be trusted. Perceptions lag reality.
- ourmandave 7y agoPeople ordered to stay home except for "essential jobs" which are defined in this article as: https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-... A wide swath of businesses that do not provide “essential” services must send workers home. Among those remaining open are grocery stores, pharmacies, restaurants for delivery only and hardware stores. Most workers are ordered to stay home, with exceptions including health care workers; police, fire and other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians, plumbers and sanitation workers. BART will remain running for essential travel, and airports are not closing.
- dx034 7y agoI don't get why they don't close airports for all but cargo traffic. That way they could close off all terminals, probably saving ~90% of personnel. With cargo only, just warehouses and a minimum of security and air traffic control would have to be on site. Keeping terminals staffed when people aren't supposed to travel anyway doesn't seem logical.
- Phylter 7y agoIt's coming to the rest of the country soon. My employer has already sent many of their employees to work from home though they've never had a work from home policy and very few exceptions to the rule. As the continuing jokes goes, I guess we'll find out how well we can work from home after all.
- Cyberdog 7y agoYour employer sending employees home does not have the force of law behind it. You're probably not at risk of getting shot and/or imprisoned for violating their request.
- gdulli 7y agoIt has the force of discretion and common sense behind it. The aspiration of a society isn't for it to be run by the force of law at every turn. It's to educate and motivate people to make good decisions on their own where the force of law leaves off.
- Cyberdog 7y agoOh, I agree. My point was that a request by a company to its employees is eons away in terms of severity and consequence than the government dictating the consequences under which you may leave your home. A city just more or less put its entire population in parole.
- rhizome 7y agoPeople on parole have very little in the way of 4th Amendment rights, to cite one distinction.
- gdulli 7y agoMy point is that the distinction is meaningless because we should all be committed enough to the same goal and put the severity of the situation above a rebellion instinct. There are other outlets for that.
- Cyberdog 7y agoJesus Christ. What an Orwellian nightmare. I hope the people of SF either get out of there and stay out, or violate this lockdown in such high numbers that it becomes unenforceable. Good luck to all of you. The rest of the country awaits you. Housing is actually affordable in most of it.
- arcticbull 7y agoOk, I'm one of the people who thinks this whole thing is way overblown, but I'm not about to violate this order. It specifically permits you to go out for a walk/run, but otherwise to stay home. We can figure out if this makes sense afterwards and evaluate for next time, but until then, we show solidarity and wait for cooler heads to prevail.
- nomel 7y ago> but until then, we show solidarity and wait for cooler heads to prevail. I know many people that live paycheck to paycheck, with the expenses of the bay area. For some people, this isn't a simple "lets stay at home", it's "I'm not going to be able to afford rent or groceries". I think it's a privilege to have a cool head right now.
- skhavari 7y agomax $1800/mo isn't much, but maybe helpful for some. https://edd.ca.gov/about_edd/coronavirus-2019.htm https://edd.ca.gov/about_edd/coronavirus-2019.htm If your employer has reduced your hours or shut down operations due to COVID-19, you can file an Unemployment Insurance (UI) claim. UI provides partial wage replacement benefit payments to workers who lose their job or have their hours reduced, through no fault of their own. Workers who are temporarily unemployed due to COVID-19 and expected to return to work with their employer within a few weeks are not required to actively seek work each week. However, they must remain able and available and ready to work during their unemployment for each week of benefits claimed and meet all other eligibility criteria. Eligible individuals can receive benefits that range from $40-$450 per week. The Governor’s Executive Order waives the one-week unpaid waiting period, so you can collect UI benefits for the first week you are out of work. If you are eligible, the EDD processes and issues payments within a few weeks of receiving a claim.
- yingw787 7y agoSomehow I feel like we're still being let off easy. Antibiotics still work for the vast majority of bacterial infections. The U.S. government has (at last) come together-ish to fight this. The U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve currency via Bretton Woods and we can print money to alleviate pain and suffering. So...what will happen to us when these facts may no longer hold true? I don't think this pandemic is do-or-die. This pandemic is just a stress test for what's to come.
- axaxs 7y agoI think your last point is perhaps most important. The way the fed is printing cash, I feel the dollar would have absolutely tanked were it not the dominant world currency.
- yingw787 7y agoRight?? 1.5T as a knee-jerk reaction to a market dip? Did they even consult Congress w.r.t. liquidity injection via fiscal policy? We should have rolled back QE years ago and suffered the pain of a small or medium recession, but nobody wanted to go for it because recession bad. Now we have a big recession looming and risk running out of tools, and I don't think this is the biggest recessionary event possible.
- josh2600 7y agoThere is always jubilee. This essay is a little bonkers but also has a kernel of wisdom in it. https://mailchi.mp/4c8646c6a609/crypto-trader-digest-1307893?e=77d1d09153 https://mailchi.mp/4c8646c6a609/crypto-trader-digest-1307893... I am a big fan of Arthur. He’s a little hard for people to stomach but super smart.
- axaxs 7y agoEven before the 1.5T, the fed has been pumping imaginary money, especially to the repo market hoping they'd get it back. I disagree that this isn't the biggest recessionary event. Never in my lifetime, or even my parents, has EVERYTHING shut down at the same time. This is economically bad. We're promising to help the affected industries, which is more cash printing. The USG cannot support the entire economy for months. Either the market or the government has to break, and I feel it's gonna be the former.
- nomel 7y agoHave there been any legal analysis of this? Is this constitutional?
- zozbot234 7y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_(United_States_constitutional_law) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_(United_States_co...
- nomel 7y ago> provided these measures do not infringe upon any of the rights protected by the United States Constitution I had the right to free travel in mind, specifically.
- arcticbull 7y agoEach and every right has reasonable restrictions as interpreted by the court. Each and every one. Y'all come out of the woodwork every time something bad happens and showcase the worst civics education America has to offer.
- nomel 7y agoExcuse me? Just because I don't know the details of the constitutional doesn't mean I'm crawling out of the woodwork. Maybe you've had police law in your city before, but this is the first time I've experienced someone saying I can't go where I want, so I'm genuinely curious how all of this works. Of course there are limits, and I'm asking what they are, in this specific case. Feel free to contribute to the discussion.
- lsllc 7y agoThe FAQ seems well thought out, lots of answers and reasonable ones too (can I walk my dog? -- yes if you keep 6 ft from other people).
- starik36 7y agoWhy does one have to keep the dog 6 ft from people? Afaik, dogs are not Covid-19 vectors.
- inferiorhuman 7y agohttps://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/world/article240726876.html https://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/world/article240726... https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/hong-kong-dog-with-coronavirus-tests-negative-after-quarantine/ https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/hong-kong-dog-with-coronavirus... I'd say it's likely that dogs can be carriers although it sounds unlikely that they'll come down with full on COVID-19. They found the virus in the dog's sinuses but later blood tests came back negative.
- ridgeguy 7y agoPeople pet dogs. The virus may have a nontrivial lifetime on a dog's fur. Fido could become a vector.
- UncleEntity 7y agoPretty sure they mean the human attached to the dog has to stay 6ft away from other people.
- wtracy 7y agoIt's not your dog that has to stay six feet away from other people, it's you.
- marknadal 7y agoAnd how do they expect to legally & constitutionally enforce this? Not that SF isn't already a ghost town tho.
- usaar333 7y agoPolice and heavy social pressure? Laws are a social construct. I doubt any judge (which are elected by the populace in California) is going to issue an injunction against this.
- wrs 7y agoWith, you know, public health law. CALIFORNIA HEALTH AND SAFETY CODE DIVISION 105. COMMUNICABLE DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayexpandedbranch.xhtml?lawCode=HSC&division=105.&title=&part=1.&chapter=3.5.&article=&goUp=Y https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayexpand...
- fortran77 7y agoIt should be a "misdemeanor" for people to buy more product than they need for, say, a week.
- artursapek 7y agoDefine "need". Are you going to start fining obese people for over-eating?
- SubiculumCode 7y agoThis is not a time to be pedantic.
- Cyberdog 7y agoWhen people want to speak broadly about taking rights away, it's a perfect time to be pedantic.
- SubiculumCode 7y agoThere is plenty of precedent for enforced rationing. e.g. during WWII.
- Cyberdog 7y agoWWII also gave us precedent for imprisoning citizens based solely on their race. Precedent does not turn a civil-rights-destroying idea into a legitimate one.
- Mountain_Skies 7y agoDidn't ration stamps have specific amounts written on them?
- Johnny555 7y agoYou'll get lost in a morass of defining what is and what is not "too much". If I buy a salt shaker, it's going to last me months -- do I need to buy individual serving size packets? I usually buy a dozen eggs at a time that will last me for weeks, am I relegated to only buying 6 (or 3?) at a time? Making everyone buy small serving sizes may make things worse since it's more packaging to fill and deliver. If I buy 12 jars of spaghetti sauce, maybe that's hording. Or maybe I'm making a double batch of pasta every night this week to feed my large family.
- NLE106 7y agoWel this happening guys corna un a
- SubiculumCode 7y agoHealthcare is National Defense, and should be funded as such. Full stop.
- nickff 7y agoHealthcare gets much more money than Defense, even if you only look at the federal budget. https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-budget-101/spending/ https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-bud...
- SubiculumCode 7y agoOh heck. You are right.
- baby 7y agoYou mean every permanent resident should get free health care, and it should be a human right.
- woofie11 7y agoGood. Now all of America needs to do this at the same time for about 3 weeks. Then we need to have infrastructure to trace, track down, and quarantine any remaining cases like Korea.
- rubidium 7y agoMany small businesses esp. in hospitality have to fire most of their staff because of this. It’s not a trivial thing to do, and only worthwhile when the infection/death rate starts climbing. Rural areas and smaller cities are pretty safe if social distancing is used effectively. They don’t yet need to resort to these drastic measures.
- carapace 7y agoThis is the time to resort to drastic measures to prevent drastic consequences. Have you seen this from 3Blue1Brown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg "Exponential growth and epidemics" ?
- woofie11 7y agoIf you delay, the only thing that happens is you need to resort to drastic measures for longer, more people die, and more economic damage happens. The trick is to manage the economic implications. The government can hire those people, pay people to stay home, or whatever else. It will lead to inflation, but that's better than a million deaths.
- jladsjfklawe 7y agoFUCK SFBAY SOCIALISM
- 29athrowaway 7y ago1) Stop panic buying and price gouging. 2) Read the story of South Korea's Patient 31. https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER... 3) It's not the flu. It's more contagious and if you get pneumonia you will have permanent lung damage. It can also invade your nervous system. 4) Pneumonia will not kill you, but it requires hospitalization. The US has less than 3 hospital beds per every 1,000 people. 5) Reported cases are a small subset of the actual number of cases. There are not enough test kits.
- Cyberdog 7y ago> The US has less than 3 hospital beds per every 100,000 people. Citation, please. Here's a counter: This list shows about 29 ICU beds (so not even just beds more broadly) per 100,000 in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...
- 29athrowaway 7y agoCorrected: per every 1,000. Thanks.
- marnett 7y ago> It can also invade your nervous system. I've seen several reports with respect to this. It is by far the scariest element of this disease so far.
- CalChris 7y agoAlameda County joined Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties with the City of Berkeley on a legal order directing their respective residents to shelter at home for three weeks beginning March 17. http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov
- DougN7 7y agoHow will we ever get herd immunity at this rate? Don’t we have to get sick at some point? At least 200 million of us in the US?
- inamberclad 7y agoThe odds are that you'll still get infected. Prevention has been mostly abandoned, the point now is to slow the spread enough that there will be enough ICU beds for whoever needs them.
- DougN7 7y agoI seriously wonder how that will work. At 10 million per month it would take almost two years. Can we do social distancing that long?
- inamberclad 7y agoGave it some thought, and the best case I can think of is that this'll burn itself out if everyone can keep the proper distance for long enough. Basically, the track, test, and isolate route that South Korea did.
- DougN7 7y agoI’d like to believe that. But the darn thing is infectious enough that just a small handful of people still having it will restart the whole thing.
- baby 7y ago> This order is in effect until April 7. What happens after that? And when will we extend this to the whole country?
- sershe 7y agoWhat is the constitutional take on this issue? I've started voluntarily quarantining last week (skipped the gym and bars :)), but what I perceive as escalating over-reaction has shifted my opinion over the last few days. If this is an order in WA and they don't literally put a cop by my door, I wonder where I stand when I willfully violate it. I've tried to do some research but most of the freedom of movement cases seem to be concerned with interstate and international travel.
- shaunxcode 7y agoIt worries me that this is not directly addressing the obvious issue of people who will not be getting paid for 3 weeks needing to pay rent(not to mention food and other living expenses). Will this need to be handled at the federal level? What are the options? If it doesn’t get addressed soon the words “rent strike” are going to become louder and louder.