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They need to just bite the bullet and lock everything down. We are way, way behind the curve here and cases and deaths are going to skyrocket no matter what we

They need to just bite the bullet and lock everything down. We are way, way behind the curve here and cases and deaths are going to skyrocket no matter what we do at this point. But if we lock down now, we might be able to see the numbers plateau in a few weeks.

finaliteration 7y ago
Honest question because I’ve seen a few comments stating this without totally clarifying: What does “lock everything down” mean? Are you suggesting people be locked up in their homes for weeks or a month? Or just shutting down non-essential businesses and buildings? Domestic travel restrictions? I legitimately am asking not to be snarky or confrontational, I’m just trying to get some clarity on what people mean when they say this.
- mtmail 7y ago
  You'd only be allowed outside to go to work or to the supermarket or pharmacy. All other shops closed. So factories and office buildings mostly stay open, just more reduced (home office as much as possible). Every country has different limits currently. China indeed locked doors (with tape) to check if people stayed it, food delivery only through windows.
- xyzzy_plugh 7y ago
  Yes, you're fairly accurate. It means cafes, non-essential retail stores, restaurants, etc. should shut down. People should only venture outside for groceries, medicine, or if their work demands it. Work that is non-essential should be put on hold. No non-essential travel, no going out for dinner, no casual shopping for goods, no hanging out or drinking with friends or family. Stay at home as often as you can, reasonably. You don't need a curfew, yet!
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  Spain has drones yelling at people to go home if they're spotted hanging out even in parks and whatnot. People should stay home unless they're getting groceries/medicine or going to work in a hospital or other piece of critical infrastructure.
  - fuzzfactor 7y ago
    Looks like China had something like this over 42 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22218495 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22218495 But there was not widespread interest here at the time. Edit: Who likes drones anyway?
- davidw 7y ago
  What Italy's doing seems pretty close to the most you can do in a western country. It just took them too long to do it. * Only stores open are grocery stores, pharmacies and some other essentials. * No going out except to go to work or go food shopping, or a brief walk in your neighborhood, on your own. * No weddings, funerals, church. * No travel outside your town, except for work. * Work from home if you can. * Some companies, like Ferrari, are simply shutting down for a bit - they're not a key element in anyone's supply chain.
- DennisP 7y ago
  Austria has banned gatherings of more than five people. Italy has closed all stores other than grocery and drug stores. All non-essential travel is banned. There's a short list of valid essentials, like taking care of aging parents; there are roadblocks, they'll make you fill out a form stating your purpose, it's a crime to lie about it, and they do sometimes check. In China, every place you go you get your temperature taken. Go in a building, get on a bus, they take your temperature. Show a fever, they take you to a dedicated fever center, where they check you for flu and bacterial infection. Come up clear on those, you're waiting four hours for a covid-19 test. Come up positive, you're there for the duration. You don't go home to your family because they've found 80% of transmissions are in family clusters.
  - thathndude 7y ago
    Sounds worse than coronavirus.
    - DennisP 7y ago
      It's temporary, and it's not worse than mass unnecessary deaths because there weren't enough ventilators.
    - acdha 7y ago
      Would you say that to someone whose loved one died?
      - tedunangst 7y ago
        When it turns out auto deaths drop, does that mean the shutdown goes on for ever? What will you say to the family of the first auto crash victim after the shutdown is lifted?
        rsfern 7y ago
        I do think it’s important to consider the pros and cons of any given policy, but I think this comparison is a bit extreme. There are about 35k car crash deaths in the US each year [0]. I’ve seen estimates for total infection rate all over the map. Conservatively (?) if 30% of the US population is eventually infected and the fatality rate is 1%, that’s 1 million people, and basically two orders of magnitude larger for a comparable (?) time period. If we don’t do more than we currently are to limit transmission, these figures don’t seem that implausible. Auto deaths are still a huge problem, but we can take more targeted action like improving transit coverage. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_...
- mxcrossb 7y ago
  I’d also like to see a lock down that doesn’t completely throw away our civil liberties. This is a serious issue, but I don’t want to be locked at home because we’re fighting a “war on viruses” twenty years from now
  - mrfusion 7y ago
    I worry about this too. I can’t believe you’re being downvoted. I hate to say it but this whole thread gives me the vibe of democracy dying to thunderous applause.
    - freehunter 7y ago
      The downvotes are because millions of people will die because of this attitude.
      - __blockcipher__ 7y ago
        Totalitarian leaders always invoke the benefit of the masses when justifying their abuse. Personally, I believe very strongly in personal freedom, so I would absolutely rather have a million deaths than go into a state-mandated nationwide total lockdown. Anyway, the truth is it’s not an “either or” scenario. Hopefully there’s a sane middleground that we converge on :)
        yibg 7y ago
        Would you sacrifice members of your family? A million is easier to justify when it's some nameless mass of people.
  - zebraflask 7y ago
    Exactly! The "lock it all down" attitude has a heavy streak of unthinking authoritarianism to it that makes me very uncomfortable. Reasonable precautions? Of course. Going nuts and disrupting everyone's lives and businesses like that? I'd rather not.
Taek 7y ago
I really hope we lock down fast enough that the total number of infections in the US stays below 1 million. 1 million infections is the point where we run out of ICU beds (ICU rate of 10%, US has 100k ICU beds), and that's the point where the death rate jumps from 0.2% to 3%+
- chasd00 7y ago
  of the infections that don't require hospitalization what is the average recovery time? seems like we should start seeing recovery numbers going up soon.
  - rm_-rf_slash 7y ago
    It’s hard to tell. Many cases are asymptomatic and a lot of people are being denied tests because they are rationed. But the data seems to point to roughly 1-2 weeks recovery time for unhospitalized cases.
- ncallaway 7y ago
  > and that's the point where the death rate jumps from 0.2% to 3%+ Do you have a citation for that? We haven't seen a death rate of 0.2% in any population. SK (which has the broadest base of testing), Diamond Princess (which offered a unique case study, where we could test every person), and epidemiological estimates are all closer to 1%. Where are you getting the 0.2% number from?
  - tomrod 7y ago
    Grandparent comment is almost certainly referring to the Case Fatality Rate. South Korea is a better example, due to widespread testing (there was a lot of self-selection on cruise populations). CFR of 3% - 5% for unprepared areas is not unreasonable. 0.6% is closer to the South Korean experience. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19
    - th-ai 7y ago
meritt 7y ago
The US has major public leaders [1] and news organizations actively suggesting to people this is overblown and that they should go continue about their normal lives. We are so completely far from that step happening on a national level. Edit: Source added. [1] https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/devin-nunes-this-is-why-we-cant-have-nice-things-coronavirus/ https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/devi...
- AlexCoventry 7y ago
  What's the most recent example? It seems to me as though any diminution of the crisis stopped this weekend.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - mikeyouse 7y ago
    Literally several Republicans today. The Governor of Oklahoma tweeted a pic of himself at a busy restaurant last night (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETHs_hQUcAAu3Ep?format=jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETHs_hQUcAAu3Ep?format=jpg). Sheriff David Clarke, who has nearly a million followers on Twitter just said this a few hours ago and got thousands of retweets and favorites: > It is now evident that this is an orchestrated attempt to destroy CAPITALISM. First sports, then schools and finally commercial businesses. Time to RISE UP and push back. Bars and restaurants should defy the order. Let people decide if they want to go out. > GO INTO THE STREETS FOLKS. Visit bars, restaurants, shopping malls, CHURCHES and demand that your schools re-open. NOW! If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS. END GOVERNEMNT CONTROL OVER OUR LIVES. IF NOT NOW, WHEN? https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239324440934133760 https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239324440934133760 These people are psychotic and should be expelled from polite society.
    - 7y ago
mehrdadn 7y ago
Are there legal issues here? Can the federal government just "lock down" random local stuff in an emergency?
- enitihas 7y ago
  The federal government can claim it affects "interstate commerce".
  - mehrdadn 7y ago
    I mean, what if it's like a hundred people gathering in one place just to hang out? Or do you mean they should just make some baseless argument and let someone who cares sue later?
  - jandrewrogers 7y ago
    There is substantial Supreme Court precedent regarding this, Americans have a Constitutional right to freedom of travel on par with freedom of speech. Exceptions are extremely narrow and limited. I don't think people here realize how many times this has been reviewed by the court in cases the government deemed exceptional. This is not new territory legally. The interstate commerce clause is fundamentally restricted in scope such that it does not violate fundamental individual rights i.e. you cannot use the commerce clause to restrict free speech.
    - enitihas 7y ago
      The federal government used the commerce clause to restrict a farmer from growing wheat, and won in the supreme court.
      - jandrewrogers 7y ago
        Yes, it was terrible precedent but it also has no relevance here. If you could abrogate fundamental rights with the commerce clause then those rights effectively don't exist and the Supreme Court has consistently ruled on this. You can't use the commerce clause to infringe on the right of free speech, the right to bear arms, etc. This has been argued in the court many times and the outcomes have been one-sided in favor of the individual right. Freedom of travel -- what we are talking about with a "lockdown" -- is a thoroughly adjudicated fundamental right per the Supreme Court. Using the commerce clause to restrict travel in various ways has already been rejected by the Supreme Court, repeatedly.
MuffinFlavored 7y ago
What do you realistically estimate numbers to be in 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, and 4 weeks? When will we see exponential case growth taper off?
- pdonis 7y ago
  I think it depends a lot on how many individual people take common sense precautions themselves, instead of waiting for governments to take action. Even if there isn't a ban on large gatherings of people, if you don't have a very, very urgent reason to attend one, I would say, don't. Cancel it, or postpone it to a better time. Other common sense precautions should be easily seen. If enough people do that, I think we'll see US case growth start to taper off in a week or so.
  - nemo44x 7y ago
    A week? If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. We’ll probably see cases drop off in 3-4 weeks. But between them and now the vast majority will be without the need for a hospital visit. We probably have about 200k sick people today. Few need help.
    - pdonis 7y ago
      > If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. The median incubation period is about 5 or 6 days, not 10. > We probably have about 200k sick people today. That's the big question that nobody really knows the answer to. If the actual number is indeed that high, then you're probably right that we won't see the rate taper off in a week. I personally don't think it's that high, because most of the cases identified to date are in particular clusters. If the virus had really been spreading within the population for weeks undetected, which it would have to be for numbers like 200k total to be possible, cases popping up now would not be clustered so much. At least, that's my read--but I don't think anybody really has a good handle on the actual spread of the virus at this point.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Animats 7y ago
Yes. The US is 13 days behind Italy right now and headed in the same direction. [1] California's governor just ordered all bars, nightclubs, etc, to close, and restricted restaurant to 50% capacity. [1] http://archive.is/a1nkq http://archive.is/a1nkq
- djrogers 7y ago
  No, he was very explicit that he was not ordering those measures, but suggesting them. [1] https://sf.eater.com/2020/3/15/21180845/california-coronavirus-bars-restaurants-newsom https://sf.eater.com/2020/3/15/21180845/california-coronavir...
  - Animats 7y ago
    That's wishful thinking by the restaurant PR industry. "Newsom said the social isolation and bar directives were not an order, but that he’s confident they will be followed. “We recognize that social isolation for millions of Californians is anxiety inducing ... but we need to lean in and own this moment,” he said." In SF, it is an order for larger bars and clubs. Also for Santa Clara county.[1] Under California law, the county health officer has primary authority in this: "The county health officer may take any preventive measure that may be necessary to protect and preserve the public health from any public health hazard during any "state of war emergency," "state of emergency," or "local emergency," as defined by Section 8558 of the Government Code, within his or her jurisdiction." The Governor's direction tells county health officials to issue appropriate orders, which they are doing.[2] [1] https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/COVID-19-Guidance-031320.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co... [2] https://www.smgov.net/departments/oem/sems/proclamations-and-declarations/authorities-and-responsibilities-of-local-health-officers-in-disasters.pdf https://www.smgov.net/departments/oem/sems/proclamations-and...
- klenwell 7y ago
  Here's a table that showed up on Reddit a couple days that makes the correlation even clearer: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fiun99/oc_comparison_of_italy_usa_and_california_covid19/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fiun99/oc_... For the US, Italy's numbers are like looking 11 days into the future.
CivBase 7y ago
I have many friends who work hourly wages and do not have enough in savings to last more than a month without work. The full lockdown you are advocating for could cause significantly more devastation than it prevents. And it's nice to think that everyone will just stay home and quarantine until this blows over, but I'd be surprised if a majority of people actually did that. At some point the "lockdown" strategy produces diminishing returns.
- senordevnyc 7y ago
  1) Your friends are going to face that situation regardless. It's not like if we don't shut down now, things will be fine in a week or a month. We will shut things down, it's just a question of whether we do it proactively or reactively. And proactively has already passed, but we still could shut down before we're absolutely forced to. 2) Don't make it optional. If ever there was a use for the national guard, this is it. Put police and soldiers in the street. No one goes out unless it's for food or healthcare, on penalty of heavy fines and imprisonment. Again, this isn't optional, and we will do this. Look at Italy. It's just a question of whether we do it now or in a few weeks, when our hesitation will have cost tens of thousands of lives and even more economic ruin.
  - thathndude 7y ago
    Italy is a unique situation with the world’s second-oldest population. People continue analogizing without acknowledging that confounding factor. I want no part of an armed national guard enforcing a nationwide quarantine. And I’m guessing the 70 and 80 year olds who are most affected would rather roll the dice than watch our country descend into such an autocratic look.
    - senordevnyc 7y ago
      Well, we’ll get to see it play out in the next few weeks, won’t we. France and Spain aren’t making me feel better. And given how unhealthy the American population is, I think you’re being incredibly cavalier with other people’s lives.
jgalt212 7y ago
or they need to figure out a way to test everyone, or at least a significant sample, regardless of symptoms so we can get a baseline. I am not comfortable with the tourniquets being applied to our open society.
- paulmd 7y ago
  boy, good thing that we're restricting testing until trump's extended family can profit https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/fj2bmm/president_trump_tried_to_poach_german_scientists/fkkpf9i/ https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/fj2bmm/president_...
copperx 7y ago
I thought all of this was unnecessary until I met a few people who say "are not afraid" of the pandemic and continue going out to parties and reunions. The US needs to lock everything down because of people like that.
preben 7y ago
Shutting everything down in favor of quarantine is very problematic. If child care and schools shut down, no parent can go to work. Unless they get someone else to take care of their children, in which we've effectively bypassed the lockdown entirely. If this is the solution, let's hope most of your doctors, nurses and their auxiliaries don't have kids. And that is to say nothing of the economy of lockdown. Herd immunity is a very real thing, and considering most young people can get affected with rather mild symptoms, perhaps a steady infection rate to build up immunity among the population is way better than hoarding and locking down.
- senordevnyc 7y ago
  The "herd immunity" theory seems to be the UK's approach, but it's going to fall apart quickly, I predict. They'll be in lockdown within 2 weeks. In NYC, they just decided to shut down schools but they're providing childcare to essential personnel still, as well as meals and online education for school aged children.

finaliteration 7y ago

Honest question because I’ve seen a few comments stating this without totally clarifying: What does “lock everything down” mean? Are you suggesting people be locked up in their homes for weeks or a month? Or just shutting down non-essential businesses and buildings? Domestic travel restrictions? I legitimately am asking not to be snarky or confrontational, I’m just trying to get some clarity on what people mean when they say this.

mtmail 7y ago
You'd only be allowed outside to go to work or to the supermarket or pharmacy. All other shops closed. So factories and office buildings mostly stay open, just more reduced (home office as much as possible). Every country has different limits currently. China indeed locked doors (with tape) to check if people stayed it, food delivery only through windows.
xyzzy_plugh 7y ago
Yes, you're fairly accurate. It means cafes, non-essential retail stores, restaurants, etc. should shut down. People should only venture outside for groceries, medicine, or if their work demands it. Work that is non-essential should be put on hold. No non-essential travel, no going out for dinner, no casual shopping for goods, no hanging out or drinking with friends or family. Stay at home as often as you can, reasonably. You don't need a curfew, yet!
ceejayoz 7y ago
Spain has drones yelling at people to go home if they're spotted hanging out even in parks and whatnot. People should stay home unless they're getting groceries/medicine or going to work in a hospital or other piece of critical infrastructure.
- fuzzfactor 7y ago
  Looks like China had something like this over 42 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22218495 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22218495 But there was not widespread interest here at the time. Edit: Who likes drones anyway?
davidw 7y ago
What Italy's doing seems pretty close to the most you can do in a western country. It just took them too long to do it. * Only stores open are grocery stores, pharmacies and some other essentials. * No going out except to go to work or go food shopping, or a brief walk in your neighborhood, on your own. * No weddings, funerals, church. * No travel outside your town, except for work. * Work from home if you can. * Some companies, like Ferrari, are simply shutting down for a bit - they're not a key element in anyone's supply chain.
DennisP 7y ago
Austria has banned gatherings of more than five people. Italy has closed all stores other than grocery and drug stores. All non-essential travel is banned. There's a short list of valid essentials, like taking care of aging parents; there are roadblocks, they'll make you fill out a form stating your purpose, it's a crime to lie about it, and they do sometimes check. In China, every place you go you get your temperature taken. Go in a building, get on a bus, they take your temperature. Show a fever, they take you to a dedicated fever center, where they check you for flu and bacterial infection. Come up clear on those, you're waiting four hours for a covid-19 test. Come up positive, you're there for the duration. You don't go home to your family because they've found 80% of transmissions are in family clusters.
- thathndude 7y ago
  Sounds worse than coronavirus.
  - DennisP 7y ago
    It's temporary, and it's not worse than mass unnecessary deaths because there weren't enough ventilators.
  - acdha 7y ago
    Would you say that to someone whose loved one died?
    - tedunangst 7y ago
      When it turns out auto deaths drop, does that mean the shutdown goes on for ever? What will you say to the family of the first auto crash victim after the shutdown is lifted?
      - rsfern 7y ago
        I do think it’s important to consider the pros and cons of any given policy, but I think this comparison is a bit extreme. There are about 35k car crash deaths in the US each year [0]. I’ve seen estimates for total infection rate all over the map. Conservatively (?) if 30% of the US population is eventually infected and the fatality rate is 1%, that’s 1 million people, and basically two orders of magnitude larger for a comparable (?) time period. If we don’t do more than we currently are to limit transmission, these figures don’t seem that implausible. Auto deaths are still a huge problem, but we can take more targeted action like improving transit coverage. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_...
mxcrossb 7y ago
I’d also like to see a lock down that doesn’t completely throw away our civil liberties. This is a serious issue, but I don’t want to be locked at home because we’re fighting a “war on viruses” twenty years from now
- mrfusion 7y ago
  I worry about this too. I can’t believe you’re being downvoted. I hate to say it but this whole thread gives me the vibe of democracy dying to thunderous applause.
  - freehunter 7y ago
    The downvotes are because millions of people will die because of this attitude.
    - __blockcipher__ 7y ago
      Totalitarian leaders always invoke the benefit of the masses when justifying their abuse. Personally, I believe very strongly in personal freedom, so I would absolutely rather have a million deaths than go into a state-mandated nationwide total lockdown. Anyway, the truth is it’s not an “either or” scenario. Hopefully there’s a sane middleground that we converge on :)
      - yibg 7y ago
        Would you sacrifice members of your family? A million is easier to justify when it's some nameless mass of people.
- zebraflask 7y ago
  Exactly! The "lock it all down" attitude has a heavy streak of unthinking authoritarianism to it that makes me very uncomfortable. Reasonable precautions? Of course. Going nuts and disrupting everyone's lives and businesses like that? I'd rather not.

Taek 7y ago

I really hope we lock down fast enough that the total number of infections in the US stays below 1 million. 1 million infections is the point where we run out of ICU beds (ICU rate of 10%, US has 100k ICU beds), and that's the point where the death rate jumps from 0.2% to 3%+

chasd00 7y ago
of the infections that don't require hospitalization what is the average recovery time? seems like we should start seeing recovery numbers going up soon.
- rm_-rf_slash 7y ago
  It’s hard to tell. Many cases are asymptomatic and a lot of people are being denied tests because they are rationed. But the data seems to point to roughly 1-2 weeks recovery time for unhospitalized cases.
ncallaway 7y ago
> and that's the point where the death rate jumps from 0.2% to 3%+ Do you have a citation for that? We haven't seen a death rate of 0.2% in any population. SK (which has the broadest base of testing), Diamond Princess (which offered a unique case study, where we could test every person), and epidemiological estimates are all closer to 1%. Where are you getting the 0.2% number from?
- tomrod 7y ago
  Grandparent comment is almost certainly referring to the Case Fatality Rate. South Korea is a better example, due to widespread testing (there was a lot of self-selection on cruise populations). CFR of 3% - 5% for unprepared areas is not unreasonable. 0.6% is closer to the South Korean experience. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19
  - th-ai 7y ago

meritt 7y ago

The US has major public leaders [1] and news organizations actively suggesting to people this is overblown and that they should go continue about their normal lives. We are so completely far from that step happening on a national level. Edit: Source added. [1] https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/devin-nunes-this-is-why-we-cant-have-nice-things-coronavirus/ https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/devi...

AlexCoventry 7y ago
What's the most recent example? It seems to me as though any diminution of the crisis stopped this weekend.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- mikeyouse 7y ago
  Literally several Republicans today. The Governor of Oklahoma tweeted a pic of himself at a busy restaurant last night (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETHs_hQUcAAu3Ep?format=jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETHs_hQUcAAu3Ep?format=jpg). Sheriff David Clarke, who has nearly a million followers on Twitter just said this a few hours ago and got thousands of retweets and favorites: > It is now evident that this is an orchestrated attempt to destroy CAPITALISM. First sports, then schools and finally commercial businesses. Time to RISE UP and push back. Bars and restaurants should defy the order. Let people decide if they want to go out. > GO INTO THE STREETS FOLKS. Visit bars, restaurants, shopping malls, CHURCHES and demand that your schools re-open. NOW! If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS. END GOVERNEMNT CONTROL OVER OUR LIVES. IF NOT NOW, WHEN? https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239324440934133760 https://twitter.com/SheriffClarke/status/1239324440934133760 These people are psychotic and should be expelled from polite society.
  - 7y ago

mehrdadn 7y ago

Are there legal issues here? Can the federal government just "lock down" random local stuff in an emergency?

enitihas 7y ago
The federal government can claim it affects "interstate commerce".
- mehrdadn 7y ago
  I mean, what if it's like a hundred people gathering in one place just to hang out? Or do you mean they should just make some baseless argument and let someone who cares sue later?
- jandrewrogers 7y ago
  There is substantial Supreme Court precedent regarding this, Americans have a Constitutional right to freedom of travel on par with freedom of speech. Exceptions are extremely narrow and limited. I don't think people here realize how many times this has been reviewed by the court in cases the government deemed exceptional. This is not new territory legally. The interstate commerce clause is fundamentally restricted in scope such that it does not violate fundamental individual rights i.e. you cannot use the commerce clause to restrict free speech.
  - enitihas 7y ago
    The federal government used the commerce clause to restrict a farmer from growing wheat, and won in the supreme court.
    - jandrewrogers 7y ago
      Yes, it was terrible precedent but it also has no relevance here. If you could abrogate fundamental rights with the commerce clause then those rights effectively don't exist and the Supreme Court has consistently ruled on this. You can't use the commerce clause to infringe on the right of free speech, the right to bear arms, etc. This has been argued in the court many times and the outcomes have been one-sided in favor of the individual right. Freedom of travel -- what we are talking about with a "lockdown" -- is a thoroughly adjudicated fundamental right per the Supreme Court. Using the commerce clause to restrict travel in various ways has already been rejected by the Supreme Court, repeatedly.

MuffinFlavored 7y ago

What do you realistically estimate numbers to be in 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, and 4 weeks? When will we see exponential case growth taper off?

pdonis 7y ago
I think it depends a lot on how many individual people take common sense precautions themselves, instead of waiting for governments to take action. Even if there isn't a ban on large gatherings of people, if you don't have a very, very urgent reason to attend one, I would say, don't. Cancel it, or postpone it to a better time. Other common sense precautions should be easily seen. If enough people do that, I think we'll see US case growth start to taper off in a week or so.
- nemo44x 7y ago
  A week? If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. We’ll probably see cases drop off in 3-4 weeks. But between them and now the vast majority will be without the need for a hospital visit. We probably have about 200k sick people today. Few need help.
  - pdonis 7y ago
    > If you got I’ll this weekend or the last few days you probably won’t feel it for 10 days. The median incubation period is about 5 or 6 days, not 10. > We probably have about 200k sick people today. That's the big question that nobody really knows the answer to. If the actual number is indeed that high, then you're probably right that we won't see the rate taper off in a week. I personally don't think it's that high, because most of the cases identified to date are in particular clusters. If the virus had really been spreading within the population for weeks undetected, which it would have to be for numbers like 200k total to be possible, cases popping up now would not be clustered so much. At least, that's my read--but I don't think anybody really has a good handle on the actual spread of the virus at this point.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Animats 7y ago

Yes. The US is 13 days behind Italy right now and headed in the same direction. [1] California's governor just ordered all bars, nightclubs, etc, to close, and restricted restaurant to 50% capacity. [1] http://archive.is/a1nkq http://archive.is/a1nkq

djrogers 7y ago
No, he was very explicit that he was not ordering those measures, but suggesting them. [1] https://sf.eater.com/2020/3/15/21180845/california-coronavirus-bars-restaurants-newsom https://sf.eater.com/2020/3/15/21180845/california-coronavir...
- Animats 7y ago
  That's wishful thinking by the restaurant PR industry. "Newsom said the social isolation and bar directives were not an order, but that he’s confident they will be followed. “We recognize that social isolation for millions of Californians is anxiety inducing ... but we need to lean in and own this moment,” he said." In SF, it is an order for larger bars and clubs. Also for Santa Clara county.[1] Under California law, the county health officer has primary authority in this: "The county health officer may take any preventive measure that may be necessary to protect and preserve the public health from any public health hazard during any "state of war emergency," "state of emergency," or "local emergency," as defined by Section 8558 of the Government Code, within his or her jurisdiction." The Governor's direction tells county health officials to issue appropriate orders, which they are doing.[2] [1] https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/COVID-19-Guidance-031320.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-co... [2] https://www.smgov.net/departments/oem/sems/proclamations-and-declarations/authorities-and-responsibilities-of-local-health-officers-in-disasters.pdf https://www.smgov.net/departments/oem/sems/proclamations-and...
klenwell 7y ago
Here's a table that showed up on Reddit a couple days that makes the correlation even clearer: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fiun99/oc_comparison_of_italy_usa_and_california_covid19/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fiun99/oc_... For the US, Italy's numbers are like looking 11 days into the future.

CivBase 7y ago

I have many friends who work hourly wages and do not have enough in savings to last more than a month without work. The full lockdown you are advocating for could cause significantly more devastation than it prevents. And it's nice to think that everyone will just stay home and quarantine until this blows over, but I'd be surprised if a majority of people actually did that. At some point the "lockdown" strategy produces diminishing returns.

senordevnyc 7y ago
1) Your friends are going to face that situation regardless. It's not like if we don't shut down now, things will be fine in a week or a month. We will shut things down, it's just a question of whether we do it proactively or reactively. And proactively has already passed, but we still could shut down before we're absolutely forced to. 2) Don't make it optional. If ever there was a use for the national guard, this is it. Put police and soldiers in the street. No one goes out unless it's for food or healthcare, on penalty of heavy fines and imprisonment. Again, this isn't optional, and we will do this. Look at Italy. It's just a question of whether we do it now or in a few weeks, when our hesitation will have cost tens of thousands of lives and even more economic ruin.
- thathndude 7y ago
  Italy is a unique situation with the world’s second-oldest population. People continue analogizing without acknowledging that confounding factor. I want no part of an armed national guard enforcing a nationwide quarantine. And I’m guessing the 70 and 80 year olds who are most affected would rather roll the dice than watch our country descend into such an autocratic look.
  - senordevnyc 7y ago
    Well, we’ll get to see it play out in the next few weeks, won’t we. France and Spain aren’t making me feel better. And given how unhealthy the American population is, I think you’re being incredibly cavalier with other people’s lives.

jgalt212 7y ago

or they need to figure out a way to test everyone, or at least a significant sample, regardless of symptoms so we can get a baseline. I am not comfortable with the tourniquets being applied to our open society.

paulmd 7y ago
boy, good thing that we're restricting testing until trump's extended family can profit https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/fj2bmm/president_trump_tried_to_poach_german_scientists/fkkpf9i/ https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/fj2bmm/president_...

copperx 7y ago

I thought all of this was unnecessary until I met a few people who say "are not afraid" of the pandemic and continue going out to parties and reunions. The US needs to lock everything down because of people like that.

preben 7y ago

Shutting everything down in favor of quarantine is very problematic. If child care and schools shut down, no parent can go to work. Unless they get someone else to take care of their children, in which we've effectively bypassed the lockdown entirely. If this is the solution, let's hope most of your doctors, nurses and their auxiliaries don't have kids. And that is to say nothing of the economy of lockdown. Herd immunity is a very real thing, and considering most young people can get affected with rather mild symptoms, perhaps a steady infection rate to build up immunity among the population is way better than hoarding and locking down.

senordevnyc 7y ago
The "herd immunity" theory seems to be the UK's approach, but it's going to fall apart quickly, I predict. They'll be in lockdown within 2 weeks. In NYC, they just decided to shut down schools but they're providing childcare to essential personnel still, as well as meals and online education for school aged children.