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Regardless of the ability of people to travel to the UK or Canada and get here (which people have done for a long time with other nations we don't take kindly t
by unlinked_dll 7y ago
Regardless of the ability of people to travel to the UK or Canada and get here (which people have done for a long time with other nations we don't take kindly to) it's absolutely going to reduce the number of people who will travel across the pond. Which is the goal, reduce infection rates.
My concern is how economies are going to respond to the US being cut off from Continental ports for a month, which as far as I can tell hasn't happened since U boats were in open waters.
Can anyone comment on supply chains that rely on Europe to source goods? I know medical grade steel comes from over there, but I don't know what else.
Edit: apparently the president misspoke.
- nugget 7y agoThe situation in Europe will be much worse a month from now than it is today, unfortunately. I'd bet on this ban lasting closer to 90 days than 30.
- roywiggins 7y agoThe situation here will be much worse in 30 days, too.
- corel_ 7y agoI'm not sure where this level of panic is coming from. Numbers are about to spike everywhere pretty much no matter what anybody does, because better testing and funding has become available. Quarantining an entire continent, and even worse than this badly doing it, seems to be an astonishing overreaction. The average age of death for coronavirus victims is 83. The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Korea or as high as 5% in Italy. Italy is especially vulnerable because it has the oldest population in Europe which is one of the factors that is leading to the 5% figure from there. It is not an End of Days zombie apocalypse. I recently watched a speech by a US mayor which essentially said that the panic over Corona is going to do much more damage to people than the actual virus and I tend to agree. Simple quarantining measures mixed with best practices for infection control until we have more information about the virus seems perfectly fine. Blowing up the global economy is complete overkill and is a typical move from an administration whose response to topics are either to ignore them or sledgehammer them.
- andbberger 7y agoExponential growth doesn't seem like a problem, until it is. A primary concern is reducing peak load on medical services. https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/
- corel_ 7y agoThis website doesn't contradict anything I've said and I cannot see the relevance to the point.
- Gibbon1 7y agoI tried modeling infection rates, number of infected, and total number recovered and dead. Couple of things stood out. 1. Reducing the transmission rate lowers the total number of people sick at one time. Lowers the ultimate number who contract it. And pushes the peak infection rate out. 2. The above numbers are very sensitive to r0. 3. An exponential when it hits looks like a wall. You end up with a significant percentage of the population sick at once. Could be my model being shitty but it looks like at high r0 there is a momentum effect which drives the total number infected above what you would expect.
- TheGallopedHigh 7y agoYou’re describing a typical SIR model (susceptible infected recovered) which can be solved analytically. You can see the dependence on all those points you mentioned above. Note this is a “mean-field” model (everyone evenly mixed together) so take it with a grain of salt...
- Gibbon1 7y agoThat's what I was trying to do. I thought it would be interesting to build one and play with it. The issue with it being a mean model vs a mixes contact model noted.
- TheGallopedHigh 7y ago
- peter303 7y agoI suspect improvement when the weather warms. There is little community spreading in the summer countries of Africa and southern hemisphere.
- tayo42 7y agoTom hanks caught it in Australia. It's summer there now. Most of the southern hemisphere isn't developed, I don't think they're testing
- dx034 7y agoIt mostly spread through travel, a lot of it business travel. Little spread in less developed countries are likely because of less travel activity.
- bart_spoon 7y agoImprovement due to the seasons isn't simply due to the physiology of the virus itself. People spend less inside and in confined spaces where its easier to contaminate each other. Additionally, the flu does have significant seasonality, and flu season will be tapering off in the coming weeks and months, meaning more healthcare resources to dedicate to coronavirus infections.
- popz41 7y agoIt may, but improvement regarding weather is related to people staying inside and in very close contact with one another when its cold/winter, nothing to do with temperature killing the virus.
- dx034 7y agoAnd with fewer pre-existing conditions. People that already have the flu or coughs for other reasons are more likely to need treatment. Late spring or summer usually has empty hospitals and fewer people experiencing a cold, helping with the treatment of Covid
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- guerrilla 7y agoI don't know about the actual economy but finance seems to hate this. Most open market indicators dropped by like 3%...
- doubleunplussed 7y agoAfter dropping almost 5% today. Yikes.
- smt1 7y agoThe S&P futures dropped by 5% so far. Oil and other commodities also took a dump. https://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures https://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures https://m.investing.com/commodities/ https://m.investing.com/commodities/
- amiga_500 7y agoEquities markets don't like it. The last couple of weeks have been very profitable for "finance".
- endorphone 7y agoIt isn't just the travel ban that spooks markets. It's the feeling that there are no functioning adults in charge of the response for something that requires real leadership. Each and every time Trump has spoken to this, as he attempts a mulligan for his last catastrophic bungling of it [1], his raw and profound unsuitability is laid bare (it is incredible that this point is even remotely contentious, as some people clutch onto denial with such vigor. For someone to still be a believer in Trump requires some serious mental gymnastics and/or impairment). [1] - It was a hoax. The flu. An overreaction. 15 patients soon would be 0. A vaccine in a month. Contained. His sole desperate need was to try to buoy the market -- it is literally the single and only thing he has going for him -- but unfortunately reality is ready to make its presence known the next day, not concerned with his chronic lying and bluster. Having an egocentric narcissist liar/grifter as POTUS turns out to not be a great thing. But I hear that Jared Kushner is putting together a response so everything should be great. He has the qualification of being married to Trump's daughter.
- dx034 7y ago
- Scoundreller 7y ago> Can anyone comment on supply chains that rely on Europe to source goods? I know medical grade steel comes from over there, but I don't know what else. I don't see why commercial sea-shipping would be restricted. Mariners may not be allowed to leave their ship while in port though.
- rubicon33 7y agoBecause the virus can spread on surfaces I think. As well as food, and organic matter.
- anaphor 7y agoChina Post has been shipping stuff and spraying it with disinfectant. I don't see why that would be a problem. Also doesn't it take more than 9 days to sail across the atlantic ocean?
- brianwawok 7y agoA lot of goods travel by air from China. See all Apple products (this is a guess, could be wrong)
- vanniv 7y agoYou can sail across the Atlantic in 4-5 days on an ocean liner
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Frost1x 7y ago>Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. Based on the localized infection cases I see across the US and have been watching as well as the characteristics of the virus (life outside host/on surfaces, in air, the degree of asymptomatic transference, etc.), it's well beyond containment IMHO. Travel isn't going to do too much to reduce infection rates alone. We need significant cultural changes to reduce infection rates, but I don't see that happening for a variety of reasons. This country isn't about proactive action and is all about reactionary action though, so we're just waiting for that reactionary threshold. Some preventative measures have been pushed but they're no where near aggressive enough at this point. It will be interesting how this is handled in our modern cultural, current political and work culture, etc. I suspect it's going to be fairly nasty but certainly hope not. I've been advising my parents to stock up and minimize any outside interactions for awhile.
- kortex 7y agoThere were just 2 cases detected at the gym down the street from me. I'm in a medium town of about 40k in upstate NY. Not podunk, but hardly bustling. I'm considering the USA fully seeded at this point.
- penagwin 7y agoIMO the only reason we aren't reporting large numbers of new cases is because of the lack of widespread testing currently being done compared to other countries at this moment (other countries are performing magnitudes higher tests a day). Even if you think you have it, there's still not enough test kits available yet - even if you're swabbed it can be days for a result(Saying this from west michigan).
- chasd00 7y agoyes, the case count is about to sky rocket because wide spread testing is coming online but hopefully the fatality count doesn't. I think the authorities need to do a better job communicating that a steep rise in cases detected doesn't mean a steep rise in severe or lethal cases.
- mbil 7y agoAir freight rates skyrocketed due to fewer passenger flights between US and China. Presumably there will be similar impact to air freight rates between US and Europe https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airlines-freight/air-freight-rates-skyrocket-amid-passenger-flight-cuts-chinese-factory-restarts-idUSKBN20Y062 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airlin... edit: air cargo flights between US and Europe also suspended
- ajross 7y ago> Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. There are tens of thousands of incubating cases in the United States already. How exactly is a few dozen sick passengers per day going to affect that at all? You'd have to literally be picking up and flying in planes full of active cases to even match what we have here already. This is insanity. No one with any expertise at all recommended it. No one serious thinks this is a good idea. It's not going to do anything useful at all.
- briffle 7y agoIt's security theater, just like airport security screening. The politicians need to be seen doing something.
- KarlKemp 7y agoDon't put this on "The Politicians". There is exactly one politician in the world that sees closing the borders as the solution to all their problems.
- hellotomyrars 7y agoWhat? I can't even tell if this is supposed to be about Trump. Also it doesn't matter. There are thousands of borders and even more politicians on this planet and if you don't think borders are the scapegoat for problems the world over, then you're really thinking very small.
- anigbrowl 7y agoTo be fair there's quite a few of them, but I get our point.
- jvm___ 7y agoIt's also on message. America First. You stop coming here. You're the problem, I alone can protect you from the bad hombres/virus people... Don't look into yourself and see what can be fixed, always blame the other.
- amiga_500 7y agoI would imagine anyone who can answer that question comprehensively is filling their boots on some options dealer page right now, in between sips of champagne.
- l31g 7y agoTrade should not be affected. According to the BBC: The US president said his travel ban did not include Americans who had undergone appropriate screenings - or "the tremendous amount of trade and cargo".
- endorphone 7y agoTo reiterate what others said, it is long past containment in the United States. In Canada early on the cases were people who came from known hot spots. Now it is almost entirely people coming from the United States, from places with no known cases. Clearly there are clusters throughout the United States. Unconfirmed, unrecognized clusters. And with the adversity of many to utilizing health care, it seems impossible to deal with now. It's also worth noting that this flight ban applies only to non-Americans, just as the Wuhan restriction before did. During the prior travel restriction dozens of flights a day were going to and from Wuhan -- they just had Americans on them, who apparently aren't susceptible to the foreign virus. This new restriction is identical, allowing Americans to march the globe with their COVID-19, but at least they kept out the foreigners. Instead of any actual efforts it is again mere security theater. And again Trump will pat himself on the back for his very-close-to-useless theatrics.
- nomel 7y agoI think elementary/high schools are how this will spread through communities with the most efficiency. Collect a person from each family, mix them together with the poorest respect for hygiene, then send them home, 5 times a week. Here's the perspective of a San Jose public high school [1] proving that containment isn't a concern: > Oak Grove High School officials said they were not considering school closures because “children have not been shown to be a high-risk group for serious illness from this virus.” The Centers for Disease Control said last week that limited reports showed child COVID-19 patients in China had generally presented with mild symptoms. > “As much as possible, children should be allowed to carry on with their education and normal activities,” school officials said. Related, a family member received a "exposure notice" from her child's school that one of the students tested positive. No closure. There's no attempt for containment in the US. My hunch is that it's not needed as much as is being suggested by some. I guess we'll see. [1] https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/08/oak-grove-high-school-student-under-quarantine-for-covid-19-school-undergoing-weekend-deep-cleaning/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/08/oak-grove-high-school...
- nomel 7y agoCorrection: The bay area schools have shut down for 3 weeks. :)
- Alex3917 7y ago> Can anyone comment on supply chains that rely on Europe to source goods? You know all of the stuff that's made in China? The machines that make that stuff are made in Europe. Well, not literally the ones that make the stuff in China, but the ones that US companies would buy if they were trying to manufacture more stuff domestically to replace the stuff they can no longer buy from China.
- Symbiote 7y agoI think yes, literally, European machinery exported to China. It's a massive export sector for the EU (€127bn), and a chunk of that is to China, but the easily-available statistics lump machinery and vehicles, so I don't have a source.
- Alex3917 7y agoChina has started making some of their own machinery in the last 30 years. The quality generally isn't going to be as good as machinery coming from a company that's been making the same thing for 300 years, albeit for them using it internally that doesn't matter as much when the person who designed the machine is right there and can trouble shoot it in person.
- hef19898 7y agoIt will get interessting. because of the huge container backlog / production backlog in China Europe is facing a serious container shortage right now. Until this is figured out and solved, supply chain management will be a very interesting job. But by no means end-of-world serious, all life critical things are still getting through. also money buys a lot, even cargo space on ships and planes.
- Mountain_Skies 7y agoThere was an AMA on Reddit, yesterday I think, with a guy whose employer is manufacturing the tests. He said one of the challenges was some of the materials had to come from Belgium and it was taking much longer to get the supplies in the needed quantities. I'd assume such materials would be exempt if his statement is correct.
- tdhoot 7y agoYou can't get around it by going through the UK. It applies whether you've been to the countries affected at any point in the last 14 days, even if it's not your immediate origin port.
- jacquesm 7y agoThe President, for want of a better term is an idiot. When there is plenty of time to act he does nothing, and when the crisis is in full swing he makes symbolic gestures that have but one goal: to increase his chances of re-election. This has absolutely nothing to do with public health.