5 ms·

We have flying taxis. They're called helicopters and they're pretty much exclusively used by very wealthy people for commute-type scenarios. What is yet to be

We have flying taxis. They're called helicopters and they're pretty much exclusively used by very wealthy people for commute-type scenarios. What is yet to be shown by any of the "giant drone" prototypes I've seen to date is a realistic cost projection showing a ~10x reduction in comparison to a helicopter with similar safety levels within the next 10 years. I have also yet to see how these aircraft will deal with FAA regulations - a flying car is great in theory until you're subject to all the same rules as normal aircraft.

quaquaqua1 7y ago
To be thoroughly honest, I said the same thing about Tesla 10 years ago and the technology did in fact get wayyy cheaper. New economic realities are upon us. But like you said, safety is harder when you are airborne. Can't imagine what NYC would be like with 1000 helicopters in the sky.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- ska 7y ago
  New economic realities are upon us. I don't see anything about tesla that wasn't reasonably perceivable 10 years ago, or anything like a new economic reality. People have been saying for decades that electric cars will work well if and when we can get the battery cost down a bit. We haven't seen the kind of reduction above poster is positing in electric cars yet, and that's beyond the 10 year window (and we aren't going to, as drive train isn't enough of the cost).
  - kmonsen 7y ago
    Yeah, electric cars are all about battery cost which is coming down rapidly due to economies of scale. Tesla was great in taking the initial cost and that together with $7500 tax rebate made them feasible in the beginner. It looks like they are here to stay, but I would warn they still make a lot less cars at a lower profitability than most major car makers.
- casefields 7y ago
  NYC did have air taxis: https://youtu.be/8nbz5VFilxY https://youtu.be/8nbz5VFilxY
  - quaquaqua1 7y ago
    Didn't it come to an end because one crashed on a roof and lots of people got dismembered?
ska 7y ago
Electric fixed wings conceivably are a lot cheaper to maintain than a helicopter, but a lot of the infrastructure costs etc. seem like they'll be similar. You already have helicopter operating out of small pad locations with out security and line ups, etc. All of that has too look pretty similar. I can see how you might change a $200 15-20 min helicopter ride into a $120 15-20 min VTOL ride profitably, but hard to see how it becomes a $60 ride any time soon...
- outworlder 7y ago
  > with out security and line ups You have that on general aviation too, today. > I can see how you might change a $200 15-20 min helicopter ride into a $120 15-20 min VTOL ride profitably, but hard to see how it becomes a $60 ride any time soon... Last I looked, range was an enormous problem. Let's see. 20 min VTOL ride. 30 minutes reserve "fuel" or 1 hour if IFR. +more "fuel" to reach the alternate airport (if fixed wing) or the nearest landing site. These are recommendations for GA, if you are doing this commercially the requirements may be different (tend to be stricter) You can get away with a lot if you only fly in clear blue skies in locations with very stable weather. You still need to have plenty of range for unforeseen events. You don't burn off batteries when flying either, so empty or full batteries weight the same. These things won't get cheap in the short term. Non-helicopter efficient VTOL is pretty hard to do, that doesn't help costs either. Companies would do well in trying to solve one problem first (flying 'vtol' taxis) before trying to solve the other problem (electric airplanes).
  - ska 7y ago
    I think we are saying basically the same thing - this works only on short runs and the fixed costs are similar. So where are the putative gains? 2x I can see, maybe. But it's a big maybe. 10x seem to be fantasy land. So that means no disruption.
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  > a lot of the infrastructure costs etc. seem like they'll be similar Helicopter infrastructure is so cheap that there are many places with a pad that is just used for emergencies.
asdfadsfgfdda 7y ago
Just some rough estimates here, a Jetranger helicopter costs ~$1000/hr to charter. Assuming the helicopter's 300 kW engine was magically replaced with electric batteries, that's only ~$30/hr for energy. And an eVTOL will be far more energy efficient in forward flight and at idle than a helicopter. So I could see a path to 10x improvement by eliminating the pilot and keeping utilization high. Even if you budget $100/hour maintenance cost, the cost can be far lower than conventional helicopters.
- wmeredith 7y ago
  Ah yes! Get to 10x cost improvement by eliminating the pilot. Perfect. This is called putting the bell on the cat. Or Belling the cat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belling_the_Cat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belling_the_Cat
  - allovernow 7y ago
    To be fair, autonomous flight is probably an order of magnitude easier than autonomous driving. Particularly because it's far more predictable and you can put beacons on drones to automatically avoid collisions. The sky is mostly empty space and landing zones are clearly marked and purpose built. You don't have to worry about any pedestrians or unpredictable drivers or roads.
    - kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
      The sky is mostly empty space when, and only when, there are not flying taxis at sufficient scale for society to bat an eye
      - allovernow 7y ago
        That's why I mentioned beacons for collision avoidance. They wouldn't be expensive. If we're about to build this industry from the ground up I would expect to see something like that done anyway.
    - zhoujianfu 7y ago
ngoel36 7y ago
@mdorazio - agreed that helicopters today are largely reserved for the commutes of the wealthy, and they are also too loud for most cities (outside of NYC and Sao Paulo) to tolerate at any meaningful scale. My team and I published a whitepaper in 2016 that goes into detail on the cost projections for electric VTOL: uber.com/elevate.pdf. You don't quite need a 10x reduction -- helis are ~$10/passenger-mile today and an Uber X is about $1.50, so you need a 6-7x reduction to be on par. You get ~30% from the new vehicle (electric, more efficient) and you get the remainder from higher utilization and low factors enabled by the lower cost and noise. Scaled manufacturing and autonomy get you to ~$0.50/passenger-mile which is on par with the variable price of car ownership. The FAA is extremely supportive of certifying these aircraft -- here is the Administrator Dickson speaking to that directly yesterday: https://evtol.com/news/dickson-faa-15-evtol-aircraft/ https://evtol.com/news/dickson-faa-15-evtol-aircraft/ Add -- the utilization and load factor efficiencies apply to helicopters today, we are proving that with Uber Copter in NYC: https://www.uber.com/blog/new-york-city/uber-copter/ https://www.uber.com/blog/new-york-city/uber-copter/ -- ~$200 from Manhattan to JFK

quaquaqua1 7y ago

To be thoroughly honest, I said the same thing about Tesla 10 years ago and the technology did in fact get wayyy cheaper. New economic realities are upon us. But like you said, safety is harder when you are airborne. Can't imagine what NYC would be like with 1000 helicopters in the sky.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
ska 7y ago
New economic realities are upon us. I don't see anything about tesla that wasn't reasonably perceivable 10 years ago, or anything like a new economic reality. People have been saying for decades that electric cars will work well if and when we can get the battery cost down a bit. We haven't seen the kind of reduction above poster is positing in electric cars yet, and that's beyond the 10 year window (and we aren't going to, as drive train isn't enough of the cost).
- kmonsen 7y ago
  Yeah, electric cars are all about battery cost which is coming down rapidly due to economies of scale. Tesla was great in taking the initial cost and that together with $7500 tax rebate made them feasible in the beginner. It looks like they are here to stay, but I would warn they still make a lot less cars at a lower profitability than most major car makers.
casefields 7y ago
NYC did have air taxis: https://youtu.be/8nbz5VFilxY https://youtu.be/8nbz5VFilxY
- quaquaqua1 7y ago
  Didn't it come to an end because one crashed on a roof and lots of people got dismembered?

ska 7y ago

Electric fixed wings conceivably are a lot cheaper to maintain than a helicopter, but a lot of the infrastructure costs etc. seem like they'll be similar. You already have helicopter operating out of small pad locations with out security and line ups, etc. All of that has too look pretty similar. I can see how you might change a $200 15-20 min helicopter ride into a $120 15-20 min VTOL ride profitably, but hard to see how it becomes a $60 ride any time soon...

outworlder 7y ago
> with out security and line ups You have that on general aviation too, today. > I can see how you might change a $200 15-20 min helicopter ride into a $120 15-20 min VTOL ride profitably, but hard to see how it becomes a $60 ride any time soon... Last I looked, range was an enormous problem. Let's see. 20 min VTOL ride. 30 minutes reserve "fuel" or 1 hour if IFR. +more "fuel" to reach the alternate airport (if fixed wing) or the nearest landing site. These are recommendations for GA, if you are doing this commercially the requirements may be different (tend to be stricter) You can get away with a lot if you only fly in clear blue skies in locations with very stable weather. You still need to have plenty of range for unforeseen events. You don't burn off batteries when flying either, so empty or full batteries weight the same. These things won't get cheap in the short term. Non-helicopter efficient VTOL is pretty hard to do, that doesn't help costs either. Companies would do well in trying to solve one problem first (flying 'vtol' taxis) before trying to solve the other problem (electric airplanes).
- ska 7y ago
  I think we are saying basically the same thing - this works only on short runs and the fixed costs are similar. So where are the putative gains? 2x I can see, maybe. But it's a big maybe. 10x seem to be fantasy land. So that means no disruption.
marcosdumay 7y ago
> a lot of the infrastructure costs etc. seem like they'll be similar Helicopter infrastructure is so cheap that there are many places with a pad that is just used for emergencies.

asdfadsfgfdda 7y ago

Just some rough estimates here, a Jetranger helicopter costs ~$1000/hr to charter. Assuming the helicopter's 300 kW engine was magically replaced with electric batteries, that's only ~$30/hr for energy. And an eVTOL will be far more energy efficient in forward flight and at idle than a helicopter. So I could see a path to 10x improvement by eliminating the pilot and keeping utilization high. Even if you budget $100/hour maintenance cost, the cost can be far lower than conventional helicopters.

wmeredith 7y ago
Ah yes! Get to 10x cost improvement by eliminating the pilot. Perfect. This is called putting the bell on the cat. Or Belling the cat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belling_the_Cat https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belling_the_Cat
- allovernow 7y ago
  To be fair, autonomous flight is probably an order of magnitude easier than autonomous driving. Particularly because it's far more predictable and you can put beacons on drones to automatically avoid collisions. The sky is mostly empty space and landing zones are clearly marked and purpose built. You don't have to worry about any pedestrians or unpredictable drivers or roads.
  - kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
    The sky is mostly empty space when, and only when, there are not flying taxis at sufficient scale for society to bat an eye
    - allovernow 7y ago
      That's why I mentioned beacons for collision avoidance. They wouldn't be expensive. If we're about to build this industry from the ground up I would expect to see something like that done anyway.
  - zhoujianfu 7y ago

ngoel36 7y ago

@mdorazio - agreed that helicopters today are largely reserved for the commutes of the wealthy, and they are also too loud for most cities (outside of NYC and Sao Paulo) to tolerate at any meaningful scale. My team and I published a whitepaper in 2016 that goes into detail on the cost projections for electric VTOL: uber.com/elevate.pdf. You don't quite need a 10x reduction -- helis are ~$10/passenger-mile today and an Uber X is about $1.50, so you need a 6-7x reduction to be on par. You get ~30% from the new vehicle (electric, more efficient) and you get the remainder from higher utilization and low factors enabled by the lower cost and noise. Scaled manufacturing and autonomy get you to ~$0.50/passenger-mile which is on par with the variable price of car ownership. The FAA is extremely supportive of certifying these aircraft -- here is the Administrator Dickson speaking to that directly yesterday: https://evtol.com/news/dickson-faa-15-evtol-aircraft/ https://evtol.com/news/dickson-faa-15-evtol-aircraft/ Add -- the utilization and load factor efficiencies apply to helicopters today, we are proving that with Uber Copter in NYC: https://www.uber.com/blog/new-york-city/uber-copter/ https://www.uber.com/blog/new-york-city/uber-copter/ -- ~$200 from Manhattan to JFK