14 ms·

Model built by researchers suggests coronavirus outbreak began in November

108 points by hardmaru 7y ago

sdiw 7y ago
TLDR: A research by Uni Toronto suggests that the coronavirus epidemic started one month earlier than is commonly reported (Nov 2019) and has yet to be brought under control. David Fisman, one of the model’s creators said: “You can’t get up to that level of cases if the epidemic started in December. even if you pushed the reproduction really high. The plausible start date seems to be mid-November,” Wikipedia lists[1] start date to be Dec 1, 2019 and with Fever, cough, shortness of breath etc as symptoms[2], I think it's difficult to predict even for doctors exact date of the outbreak. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi... [2] https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-resources https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-resources
- killjoywashere 7y ago
  Yeah, running a regression back to the Y intercept to get a 0 time is nice in retrospect, but you'll never find the index patient, the cell or origin, etc.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- janekm 7y ago
  Playing with their model as linked gives a much better match with reported numbers with a shorter serial interval, 5 or 6 days instead of the 7 assumed by the default model settings. This is also a better match with the more recently reported case studies. I find it a little irresponsible to make such an extreme claim from such a limited modelling tool... Small changes to the assumptions can account for the discrepancy seen, and it's unrealistic to expect a basic model like this to accurately represent reality in such an unusual situation as in Wuhan.
willis936 7y ago
Oh good so the German scientist who visited for a few days last week, who was working in Wuhan in December and caught a pathogen (“but it wasn’t the flu”) may have been carrying coronavirus?
- bangboombang 7y ago
  If he's been symptom free for 3+ days then no.
  - rasz 7y ago
    dont you mean 24 days? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... "The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)."
    - bangboombang 7y ago
      I read it that the person got sick after the visit to Wuhan but recovered from that before the visit to OP. Hence 3+ days should be enough to rule out a possible infection of OP with whatever the scientist had. Since they traveled to Wuhan in December, from then to last week, that would've been more than 24 days, so in case they did not get sick yet and I read that wrong, it should also be pretty much impossible, since that would be the longest incubation period of ncov by quite a bit.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
tomlockwood 7y ago
Not surprising considering for a few days there, after control was implemented, the National Health Commission numbers adhered to an exponential trend with an R2 value of 0.995-9. https://twitter.com/whistle_posse/status/1221964216040509440 https://twitter.com/whistle_posse/status/1221964216040509440 An exponential curve is a great way to catch up to the numbers of infected that already exist. The good news is this means the outbreak is less contagious and uncontrolled than was reported. Its also probably harder to hide deaths than recoveries, so the mortality rate is likely lower. The bad news is, people may be infectious for longer before they show symptoms.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  The good news is this means the outbreak is less contagious and uncontrolled than was reported. How do you figure? If you're juicing the numbers presumably you're doing so to make things look better than they are. An optimistic curve is going to catch up to reality only if reality stays the same (or improves). About the only thing we know is that the data from China are suspect.
  - tomlockwood 7y ago
    Maybe they juiced the numbers to make it appear like the epidemic was discovered promptly, rather than late.
- hibbelig 7y ago
  Maybe hiding the deaths has been working well: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7969861/Wuhan-crematoriums-burning-bodies-24-7-cope-extra-workload.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7969861/Wuhan-crema... If they are requesting 100 body bags per day how does that’s square with the official death count?
  - elyobo 7y ago
    Daily mail? I'm going to need some more sources for whatever it is they're claiming.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Taniwha 7y ago
Remember ~15% of common cold cases are caused by a coronavirus, one that has evolved so as not to kill it's host .... there's a good chance it started out a lot like the current coronavirus
maho 7y ago
If the blue dots represent the data and if the yellow line represents the model -- doesn't the picture show an obviously bad fit?
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
lisper 7y ago
I am writing this from a cruise ship in the south china sea. We have been at sea for ten days because one port after another has been closed off to us. Some have closed to all cruise ships, some have closed to use because we have passengers who transited through Hong Kong. Every passenger now has to have their temperature taken twice a day. We have been told that we will be able to disembark in Singapore two days from now, but God only knows. Corona virus has infected fewer than 100,000 people and killed less than 1000. To put these numbers in perspective, seasonal flu results in 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness every year, and kills 290,000 to 650,000. [1] Personally, I am much more worried about public officials freaking out about the corona virus than I am about the virus itself. [1] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(...
- duaoebg 7y ago
  I'm seeing a lot of posts on why the seasonal flu is worse. This to me seems ridiculous by any reading of even the reported numbers.
- megablast 7y ago
  Hopefully this will help spell the end of cruise ships and the destruction they wreak around the world.
  - newnewpdro 7y ago
    That's unlikely, this isn't the first time nor will it be the last cruise ships will be implicated in the spreading of infectious diseases. Everybody knows cruise ships are inherently problematic in this regard due to the large numbers of international travelers living in close quarters for an extended period. It doesn't stop millions from using them, for some reason. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidance/cruiseships.htm https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidance/cruiseships.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/vsp/surv/gilist.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/vsp/surv/gilist.htm https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/travel-by-air-land-sea/cruise-ship-travel https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/travel-by-air-l...
- 7y ago
beatle_sauce 7y ago
There was an article in China News Weekly that investigated the origins of the Virus and also pointed out that 1) the first cases were in November and 2) that the first cases were not linked to the Huanan Seafood Market. https://chinachange.org/2020/02/09/the-regret-of-wuhan-how-china-missed-the-critical-window-for-controlling-the-coronavirus-outbreak/ https://chinachange.org/2020/02/09/the-regret-of-wuhan-how-c...
adamleo 7y ago
I'm in China and it's astonishing how different out lives changed with less than 10 days. Quarantine and lockdown came so quick a lot of people still haven't got used to it. I've made a video about it and you can see it for yourself: https://youtu.be/uxW7k5462Ms https://youtu.be/uxW7k5462Ms This is something I've never experienced before.
- topmonk 7y ago
  How many coronavirus articles are you going to post this to? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22294779 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22294779

108 points by hardmaru 7y ago

sdiw 7y ago

TLDR: A research by Uni Toronto suggests that the coronavirus epidemic started one month earlier than is commonly reported (Nov 2019) and has yet to be brought under control. David Fisman, one of the model’s creators said: “You can’t get up to that level of cases if the epidemic started in December. even if you pushed the reproduction really high. The plausible start date seems to be mid-November,” Wikipedia lists[1] start date to be Dec 1, 2019 and with Fever, cough, shortness of breath etc as symptoms[2], I think it's difficult to predict even for doctors exact date of the outbreak. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi... [2] https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-resources https://thestrife.co/wuhan-coronavirus-resources

killjoywashere 7y ago
Yeah, running a regression back to the Y intercept to get a 0 time is nice in retrospect, but you'll never find the index patient, the cell or origin, etc.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
janekm 7y ago
Playing with their model as linked gives a much better match with reported numbers with a shorter serial interval, 5 or 6 days instead of the 7 assumed by the default model settings. This is also a better match with the more recently reported case studies. I find it a little irresponsible to make such an extreme claim from such a limited modelling tool... Small changes to the assumptions can account for the discrepancy seen, and it's unrealistic to expect a basic model like this to accurately represent reality in such an unusual situation as in Wuhan.

willis936 7y ago

Oh good so the German scientist who visited for a few days last week, who was working in Wuhan in December and caught a pathogen (“but it wasn’t the flu”) may have been carrying coronavirus?

bangboombang 7y ago
If he's been symptom free for 3+ days then no.
- rasz 7y ago
  dont you mean 24 days? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... "The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)."
  - bangboombang 7y ago
    I read it that the person got sick after the visit to Wuhan but recovered from that before the visit to OP. Hence 3+ days should be enough to rule out a possible infection of OP with whatever the scientist had. Since they traveled to Wuhan in December, from then to last week, that would've been more than 24 days, so in case they did not get sick yet and I read that wrong, it should also be pretty much impossible, since that would be the longest incubation period of ncov by quite a bit.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

tomlockwood 7y ago

Not surprising considering for a few days there, after control was implemented, the National Health Commission numbers adhered to an exponential trend with an R2 value of 0.995-9. https://twitter.com/whistle_posse/status/1221964216040509440 https://twitter.com/whistle_posse/status/1221964216040509440 An exponential curve is a great way to catch up to the numbers of infected that already exist. The good news is this means the outbreak is less contagious and uncontrolled than was reported. Its also probably harder to hide deaths than recoveries, so the mortality rate is likely lower. The bad news is, people may be infectious for longer before they show symptoms.

inferiorhuman 7y ago
The good news is this means the outbreak is less contagious and uncontrolled than was reported. How do you figure? If you're juicing the numbers presumably you're doing so to make things look better than they are. An optimistic curve is going to catch up to reality only if reality stays the same (or improves). About the only thing we know is that the data from China are suspect.
- tomlockwood 7y ago
  Maybe they juiced the numbers to make it appear like the epidemic was discovered promptly, rather than late.
hibbelig 7y ago
Maybe hiding the deaths has been working well: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7969861/Wuhan-crematoriums-burning-bodies-24-7-cope-extra-workload.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7969861/Wuhan-crema... If they are requesting 100 body bags per day how does that’s square with the official death count?
- elyobo 7y ago
  Daily mail? I'm going to need some more sources for whatever it is they're claiming.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Taniwha 7y ago

Remember ~15% of common cold cases are caused by a coronavirus, one that has evolved so as not to kill it's host .... there's a good chance it started out a lot like the current coronavirus

maho 7y ago

If the blue dots represent the data and if the yellow line represents the model -- doesn't the picture show an obviously bad fit?

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

lisper 7y ago

I am writing this from a cruise ship in the south china sea. We have been at sea for ten days because one port after another has been closed off to us. Some have closed to all cruise ships, some have closed to use because we have passengers who transited through Hong Kong. Every passenger now has to have their temperature taken twice a day. We have been told that we will be able to disembark in Singapore two days from now, but God only knows. Corona virus has infected fewer than 100,000 people and killed less than 1000. To put these numbers in perspective, seasonal flu results in 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness every year, and kills 290,000 to 650,000. [1] Personally, I am much more worried about public officials freaking out about the corona virus than I am about the virus itself. [1] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(...

duaoebg 7y ago
I'm seeing a lot of posts on why the seasonal flu is worse. This to me seems ridiculous by any reading of even the reported numbers.
megablast 7y ago
Hopefully this will help spell the end of cruise ships and the destruction they wreak around the world.
- newnewpdro 7y ago
  That's unlikely, this isn't the first time nor will it be the last cruise ships will be implicated in the spreading of infectious diseases. Everybody knows cruise ships are inherently problematic in this regard due to the large numbers of international travelers living in close quarters for an extended period. It doesn't stop millions from using them, for some reason. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidance/cruiseships.htm https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidance/cruiseships.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/vsp/surv/gilist.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/vsp/surv/gilist.htm https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/travel-by-air-land-sea/cruise-ship-travel https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/travel-by-air-l...
7y ago

beatle_sauce 7y ago

There was an article in China News Weekly that investigated the origins of the Virus and also pointed out that 1) the first cases were in November and 2) that the first cases were not linked to the Huanan Seafood Market. https://chinachange.org/2020/02/09/the-regret-of-wuhan-how-china-missed-the-critical-window-for-controlling-the-coronavirus-outbreak/ https://chinachange.org/2020/02/09/the-regret-of-wuhan-how-c...

adamleo 7y ago

I'm in China and it's astonishing how different out lives changed with less than 10 days. Quarantine and lockdown came so quick a lot of people still haven't got used to it. I've made a video about it and you can see it for yourself: https://youtu.be/uxW7k5462Ms https://youtu.be/uxW7k5462Ms This is something I've never experienced before.

topmonk 7y ago
How many coronavirus articles are you going to post this to? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22294779 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22294779