23 ms·
Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4
- dgritsko 7y agoModel Y production ramp started in January, ahead of schedule. Deliveries expected to start before the end of Q1. Exciting stuff!
- new_realist 7y agoThe Y will mostly cannibalize 3 sales, but will be good for a few quarters’ pop.
- reaperducer 7y agoThat Model A is going to cannibalize Model T sales, but it will be good for a few quarters' pop. Ford is doomed.
- braythwayt 7y agoiPad started cannibalizing Macbook sales ten years ago. Apple is doomed, we'll see them fail RealSoonNow™️.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- xkjkls 7y agoFord was making a profit when the Model T existed. Tesla isn't.
- adventured 7y agoFalse. Tesla earned a net and operating profit this quarter and last and looks set to continue the trend toward consistent profitability as they roll out their more profitable position in China. They've reached a sales scale where their operating income is annualizing to well over a billion dollars per year. Operating income was $359 million this quarter, and $620 million combined for the two most recent quarters. Free cash flow for the quarter was a billion dollars. They're sitting on $6.2 billion in cash now.
- xkjkls 7y agoYou're quoting non-GAAP numbers. It isn't an achievement to make money just by paying people in stock. Cash flow is also inflated by the use of long-term leases. Tesla lost $800 million this year. That should be the focus.
- reitzensteinm 7y agoWhile you can easily make a good argument that Tesla will be profitable from now on based on extrapolation, given that they lost money ($862 million) in 2019 your declaration of "False." like it's an open and shut case is misplaced (and rude). Parent cherry picked the facts for his argument, you cherry picked yours, neither of you have objective truth on your side. FWIW, I lean towards your argument more than theirs.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- war1025 7y agoI thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- QuotedForTruth 7y agoIts pretty in between as far as size goes. But it shares many parts with the 3 and most importantly is much closer to the 3 on price. The 3 Dual Motor Long Range is about $48k and the Y is $50k. The X Dual Motor Long Range is $80k. So if it will probably take some sales from both the 3 and X. But X sales aren't very significant compared to 3 sales anyway.
- xkjkls 7y agoIn terms of margin the X sales are still significant. S/X sales are still the only thing that provides any consistent profit to Tesla.
- nordsieck 7y ago> I thought the Y was most similar to the X? IMO, all Tesla vehicles (so far) are pretty similar to each other. On the one hand, Y is a less expensive X. On the other hand, Y is a bigger 3 with a hatch back. I'm not an expert in automotive consumer behavior, but I have to imagine that Y will cannibalize some amount of 3 sales. I also don't think that will matter that much - there is so much demand for Tesla vehicles that they are battery limited.
- pkulak 7y agoIf that was a bad thing, no auto manufacturer would have more than one model.
- jsight 7y agoI think so too, and I think they know that. It sounds like they are "only" planning to ramp US production from the current rate of ~400k total units per year to just over 500k per year. Of course, with China coming online, that still leaves a net increase. It sounds like they may have backed away from some of the more extreme high end projections for the Y. It looks like worldwide production may double within 1-2 years, though.
- damon_c 7y agoIt will ~cannibalize~ eat Toyota Rav 4 and Ford Escape sales as well.
- DennisP 7y agoI was happy to see they'd increased range to 315 miles.
- mikorym 7y agoThat's 507 km, which is starting to become an acceptable range in countries where you tend to travel longer distances.
- pedrocr 7y agoThe model 3 and S already have that range or more. You'll only get ~350km out of that at highway speeds though. The supercharger network makes it perfectly reasonable but it's not yet ideal. Other EVs tend to be far behind still. Most can't charge fast enough and even the ones that do don't have enough charging infrastructure in most places. We're getting very close to mass adoption but will still need 5-10 years more depending on location to get enough battery improvement and charging deployment to make it a no-brainer to get the EV over the pretty good plugin-hybrid models that exist right now.
- torpfactory 7y agoDepends on the definition of highway speeds a bit. At 60mph I hit the rated range pretty much dead on (500km/310mi). At 75mph it’s probably between 350 and 400km. Generally agree about the charging infrastructure. Personally I have fun trying to find where I can connect to the grid but I don’t think everyone would call that fun... Round numbers: I think when there are ~2-3x the number of supercharger locations (not chargers but locations), it will basically be at parity with the convenience of gas. I believe range (500km @ 60mph) is already acceptable and if the number of locations is increased it will be even less of an issue. Just my $.02
- pedrocr 7y agoSure, given the context being in kilometers instead of miles I was using the ~130km/h that is common in a lot of European highways. From experience that gets you less than 350, particularly in winter. Some places (and drivers) are quite a bit faster still. US highways have fairly low speed limits and so range is less of an issue. True parity with gas will take a much longer time. My previous diesel car had almost 4 times the range and could be refueled in 5 minutes. But there are other advantages that cover for that. Which is why my estimate is that 5-10 years depending on location is what will be needed for both the offer of models and the charging infrastructure to all be in place.
- irjustin 7y agoCongrats to the whole Tesla team + SpaceX. Crushing things. It's taken a long time, but it's all starting to pay off.
- m0zg 7y agoFor a while there it seemed like Musk would die from stress. He just looked like he's hanging on by a thread, which he probably was. He seems far more relaxed now - if I were an investor (I'm not - the company metrics are completely detached from its valuation), I'd consider that to be a good sign.
- agumonkey 7y agoYeah it's easy to forget how early Model 3 production days were still "Tesla won't survive" for most people. What a change.
- new_realist 7y agoHis pedophilia trial went full OJ Simpson; that must have been a relief.
- xkjkls 7y agoI don't think investment thesis based on the body language of the CEO are great ways to place your money.
- m0zg 7y agoGiven that if this particular CEO were to, like, physically die (or even just throw in the towel) _Tesla_ would immediately die, I challenge this view of the situation. Even in its current, more stable state, this is a good signal that things are going well - this is not something most people can fake, certainly not people "on the spectrum" like Elon.
- xkjkls 7y agoI would never invest in any company which the bus factor is 1.
- aguyfromnb 7y agoYear-over-year revenue flat, year-over-year GAAP income down 25% on 20k more units delivered. Hard to understand...
- new_realist 7y agoIt’s a deteriorating margin mix; discounts to move metal.
- aguyfromnb 7y agoI guess the hard to understand part is: how does a $50B company that is growing revenue at 1% annually more than double its market cap in 3 months. It's insane (ludicrous?)!
- toomuchtodo 7y agoThey’re growing while the market for legacy automakers is shrinking. Everyone else is tapped out, while there’s still a whole lot of people left on Earth who’ll buy Tesla products (and you’ll notice Tesla keeps changing where the production firehose is pointed based on local incentives maximizing sales). Heck, Fiat has to hand over almost $2B to Tesla just to be permitted to sell cars in Europe because they have little to no low or zero emissions vehicles to sell. As an investor desperate for returns, do you invest in the past or the future?
- aguyfromnb 7y ago>They’re growing while the market for legacy automakers is shrinking. Do you have data for this? Tesla had, essentially zero growth in the US in 2019, which is where it sells half of its cars. There are many companies that had higher growth than that, including Volvo, which grew 10% in the US. LandRover sold 125k units in the US in 2019, which is far more than the Model S + X (its competitors). So, I'm not sure where you get the idea that everyone else is shrinking while Tesla is growing. Some companies might be, but some are growing faster than Tesla. These are not mysteries; there is data out there.
- unapologetic 7y agoDamn. I was hoping the company would implode. Instead a truly garbage human being continues to get thought of as a god by the incredibly stupid. Elon Musk is a pedoguy.
- InterestBazinga 7y agoCrazy contrast between Q1 2019 was vs Q4 2019. Tesla was in the hole so far in Q1 but it was because they were riding the fine line of bankrupcy to expand as fast as possible, and now it's paying off big time.
- slg 7y agoI have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.
- sergiomattei 7y agoStocks sometimes aren't rational. It's just speculation/hype.
- mikorym 7y agoI agree with your statement, but maybe it's more accurate to say its speculation/hype about future return on investment. I think the real question (for me at least) is whether that return on investment is in share price increase (like Amazon) or in dividends and the value of assets (like the majority of other public companies).
- AtlasBarfed 7y agoIndia and China have to go full electric or global warming will be insane. You're talking 3 billion people that all want cars.
- rdlecler1 7y agoMost people are not very good at looking into the future. People are may be making rational decisions off of poor estimations (both up and down).
- runawaybottle 7y agoShort squeeze I think.
- hw 7y agothis. It's still one of the most, if not the most shorted stock. As long as people keep shorting, the squeezes will keep propelling the stock higher, regardless of fundamentals. 1 week ago you might think it's overvalued and the meltup's run its course, but look where it's at AH today.
- pcurve 7y agoI guess he is happy about "Funding secured" not panning out.
- xkjkls 7y agoHe should be happy that he wasn't reprimanded more for faking the largest corporate buyout of all time...
- yellowbeard 7y agoHe was reprimanded by the SEC: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226 https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226
- xkjkls 7y agoFor what he did that was a slap on the wrist. He committed the most boneheaded act of blatant securities fraud the SEC has ever seen.
- tempsy 7y agono joke there are several people on /r/wallstreetbets that have turned a few hundred dollars into $1M+ in 2 months.
- toomuchtodo 7y agoShort dated deep out of the money TSLA calls are still gambling, but gambling you can do from home.
- tempsy 7y agowhat's your point? the sub is literally called "wall street bets"...there's no confusion as to the nature of what everyone is doing. you can write off up to $3K in capital losses a year. people who jokingly bought $420 and $690 strike options just a few weeks ago are literally up six and seven figures each.
- toomuchtodo 7y agoSure! But there are also folks who have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Survivorship bias.
- tempsy 7y agoOK...? I said nothing about the fact there are many more people who lost money or that this isn't akin to gambling. But there are few investments outside of options that can turn a few hundred dollars into $1M in a matter of weeks.
- TacoToni 7y agowow, you werent kidding. some folks made out like bandits. what a rush.
- manmal 7y agoI guess they could also have lost an almost equally insane amount if things had gone south?
- xiphias2 7y agoIt's interesting that Model Y production in China is starting only next year, but I can imagine that first further cost reductions in the manufacturing process must be achieved.
- notananthem 7y agoEveryone's financial statements: WE'RE DOING GREAT Everyone's GAAP numbers: ehhhhhh
- xkjkls 7y agoYeah, if you choose to pay people more in stock, its easy to make your non-GAAP numbers look good.
- the8472 7y ago> We also introduced in-app purchases, where our customers can buy various software updates, such as basic Autopilot, FSD, acceleration boost and additional premium features.Software will continue to play a growing role in our business model. I forsee an ingress-style mobile game and "pay 1$ to outmuscle that guy on the highway/arrive faster at work" features.
- 40acres 7y agoThe bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market, but the Model 3 is doing well and Tesla is being allowed to come out with more and more SKUs while the other big auto's are still finding their footing. The branding is on point without the need to advertise, like the iPhone, Tesla's are becoming just a feature of everyday life (at least in large metro's). Finally, and this is absolutely non-empirical, I just believe in Elon. Tesla might be one of those companies that simply fades away once a galvanizing leader leaves, but as long as his heart is beating I'll hold.
- xkjkls 7y agoTesla still lost $800 million this year and has never had a profitable year, on both record car sales and record regulatory credit sales. What about that indicates sustainability?
- trhway 7y ago$800M loss on $25B sales (which are growing YoY while R&D actually resulting in new models and features is maintained stable) is a noise at this point.
- neosat 7y agoAgree. Given the growth numbers and their market leadership in the EV area, there's a strong case to be made that this 'loss' is more of an 'investment' to set up for future revenue growth and consequently profits that come with increasing maturity and operational cost reductions.
- xkjkls 7y agoThey have shrunk in sales YoY in the US and Norway, their two largest markets. They managed to grow globally by finding the most advantageous subsidies for them to take advantage of. However, even that only gave them 1% growth of the past year.
- jaimex2 7y agoLooks like they are truly unstoppable now, Musk's plans seem to have shifted into high gear.