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Coronavirus Real Time Map

267 points by ranadeep 7y ago

obilgic 7y ago
This looks a lot more serious compared to a week ago.
- ShorsHammer 7y ago
  People who are actually concerned at this stage while ignoring the scientists who say there's no proof it's serious are prime examples of the types who get worked up by the media hypetrain and should be actively avoided. It's a harsh assessment but honestly think it's the case. The media sell stories. People click on those stories, the stories that get clicked on most get other stories written on the topic. This is how the industry works. It's actually quite a simple model. Human beings are fucking terrible at risk assessment. What do people here think the risk is for them of dying of coronavirus compared to say dying in a traffic accident? Which is more likely to happen to you by a few magnitudes?
  - swader999 7y ago
    China just shut down 15 cities and 2 provinces with nearly 80 million people and put men with guns in nbc suits at all the exits,shut down the internet,stop all travel and extend public holidays Im sure its perfectly harmless
    - theseadroid 7y ago
      Please cite the source of shutting down the internet. As a Chinese, as far as I read only physical movement are prohibited. Many people stay at home play online games now.
  - clarry 7y ago
    If the 2% mortality rate is correct, then the risk of dying to the virus is significantly higher than my risk of dying in traffic. It is bad if such a potent virus were to spread everywhere. That said, I don't trust the numbers so at this point it's hard to say. My gut says there are way more infected people than reported, but deaths are probably less likely to be underreported at that scale. Which means mortality rate would actually be significantly lower than 2%. On flip side, the chance of getting infected would be much higher.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - ta999999171 7y ago
    You can outsmart a traffic accident. Tough for most to outrun/outsmart an epidemic. Read/watch some of the Twitter whistleblowers. Govs have no reason to tell everyone the true risks - and every reason to hide them.
    - ShorsHammer 7y ago
      > You can outsmart a traffic accident. That's absurd considering how many people are unwilling victims of accidents, how exactly would you outsmart it? Never leave home?
      - ta999999171 7y ago
        No, be an above-average professional driver that can predict accidents based on driving behavior. It's a thing.
        ShorsHammer 7y ago
        So everyone can simply just be above-average? Given how that is the cognitive bias most widely associated with driving it's a tad ironic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority Regardless, let's turn that comment around: could it not similarly apply to hygiene and risk of infection? Just be an above-average smart citizen and you'll be fine, yes?
growlist 7y ago
Nice to see some Esri-powered apps getting some exposure.
chrononaut 7y ago
One minor note is that the "real time" nature of this map is a bit deceiving at the moment, at least to me. While the specific figures imply that it's pulling data at a near real-time basis, it's still dependent on countries posting the latest figures in batch, and then being updated as last indicated in the top right. As of now, it seems verbal announcements precede the digital announcements and as such I've found journalist-maintained maps to be a bit more up to date with the latest announcements, such as the one maintained by the NYTimes. Although if this continues to spread to different demographics, this map will probably have much higher utility.
- imeron 7y ago
  Last updated: a few seconds ago "As of Jan 27, 2020 8:30 pm EST". The title of the page here on HN and also the last updated lines are kinda misleading.
- contingencies 7y ago
  Absolutely. It's marketing bullshit. Nobody has current figures. In fact, multiple specialist academics said ~3 days ago that only 5% of cases are confirmed, now may be less due to reports of equipment shortages, the additional time the virus has had to disperse geographically, and Chinese New Year. Therefore, we can multiply any official figures by 20x. Official figures are nearing 5,000 cases, which extrapolating from those estimates means we're at around 100,000 infections as of today. Source: I wrote and am maintaining an animated map of the domestic spread (the one on Wikipedia), over here: https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-coronavirus-data/ https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-coronavirus-data... .. powered by two scrapers, main one is from DXY, which is ahead of this 'real time' map by many hours, judging by total figures.
  - infinity0 7y ago
    The exponential growth always slows at some point, so unconditionally multiplying by 20 is unrealistic.
    - scottLobster 7y ago
adhoc32 7y ago
So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?
- rapsey 7y ago
  Chinese numbers are entirely untrustable.
- kenneth 7y ago
  Is it really that few fully recovered?
- jokoon 7y ago
  Isn't that too early since there are still thousands of new cases? The survival rate can improve. Most of those deaths are probably early patients who did not benefit from proper cares since at the time they did not know what it was.
- christkv 7y ago
  I think we should look at survival rate for patients in western care to get a better understanding of the rate of death when under better care.
  - catalogia 7y ago
    I don't think there are enough cases outside China to perform that analysis yet. Of the 4474 cases, only 65 are outside China. My stats is rusty, but given that something like 2-3% of that 4474 in China have died, I think zero deaths from 65 cases outside China doesn't mean a ton.
- wuschel 7y ago
  I guess it is difficult to know if these are the right numbers. Elderly people, and people with a disposition (eg. COPD) are much more vulnerable to a corona virus infection. I would wait before more people have gone through the disease before making a conclusion about statistics such as case fatality rates et cetera.
- 7y ago
maayank 7y ago
Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at these locations is significant or not.
- akmarinov 7y ago
  Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.
  - m12k 7y ago
    A relevant question is also, if most deaths really are among immunocompromised, elderly or very young, then how many of those 2% would have been killed by the flu or similar if coronavirus hadn't shown up? 14 million dead is terrible by any measure, but I'm wondering how much of a change over the norm it actually represents.
    - sarabande 7y ago
      I'm not an epidemiologist. Anyway, I looked up the most recent CDC flu death estimates for 2018-2019[1]: 34157 dead from 35520883 infected, let's see how much hire a 2% corona virus mortality rate is above the normal flu mortality rate in the US: >>> .02 / (34157 / 35520883.) 20.798596480955588 About 21 times higher. [1]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
    - koheripbal 7y ago
      It's 3-4 orders of magnitude more deadly than the normal seasonal flu. The mortality rate is similar to SARS, but with far more infections. The above comment saying that it "mostly" impacts elderly is a bit vague. The fact that within the first 100 deaths were multiple young healthy people means it is dangerous for the entire population. People in their 30s and 40s are not "old".
tsukurimashou 7y ago
I get: Fatal Errors Unable to load https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6/data?f=json https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/item... status: 502 d@https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:112:340 https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:112:340 d@https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:140:425 https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:140:425 f@https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:145:35 https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:145:35 Maybe the load is a bit too heavy for the app at the moment EDIT: after a few attempts I was able to load the map, it is nicely done!
- tictok4 7y ago
  You probably have refer disabled or spoofed. "Fix" that and it may work
  - tsukurimashou 7y ago
    yeah no it was just load, otherwise it would not work randomly like that
seren 7y ago
Given the distribution in China, it looks like it is not going to be contained in Wuhan, even with a quarantine.
- bangboombang 7y ago
  Yeah. I mean as a Plague, Inc. player I have to give kudos to this virus. Having the outbreak shortly before the spring festival is genius, the travel ban for Wuhan came so late that many people already traveled to all over the country to meet their families, greatly helping the spread. I'm staying inside for now...
  - sogen 7y ago
    yup, also this: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-outbreak-says-5-million-people-left-the-city-before-travel-restrictions-were-imposed-2020-01-26?mod=community-commons https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-o... oh, and this, a BSL-4 lab: https://www.nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nature.2017.21487 https://www.nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nature.2017.2148...
  - aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA 7y ago
    https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/01/plague-inc-maker-dont-use-our-game-for-coronavirus-modeling/ https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/01/plague-inc-maker-dont...
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
cynicalreason 7y ago
almost 4% mortality rate in Hubei is pretty scary, I imagine a lot has to do with China not reporting real infection numbers which are rumoured to be much higher
GistNoesis 7y ago
Does it display potentially infected planes and boats like in Plague Inc yet ?
dazhbog 7y ago
I also use this that has a slightly more up to date numbers. https://jobtube.cn/wv/ https://jobtube.cn/wv/
stevespang 7y ago
Works fine for me, very slow to load. You can bet that >90% of all these cases outside China are Chinese traveling back to foreign countries.
lysp 7y ago
Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. > ● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas. > ● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. > ● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. > ● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings. Source: https://twitter.com/char_durand/status/1221997021663387649 https://twitter.com/char_durand/status/1221997021663387649
- infinity0 7y ago
  What about a 99.99% reduction in travel? Wuhan has 11 million and 1% of that is 100k, I'd imagine the quarantine is more successful than preventing 100k people from travelling.
molteanu 7y ago
@mods, there was the news the other day about Kobe's death. It got flagged, and for good reason. Why is this coronavirus stuff not flagged also? There are currently 3 articles on the front page related to this. It just slipped or is there a reason for this?
- cthalupa 7y ago
  It's a (mildly) scientific discussion. Lots of medical discussion happens on HN due to their scientific nature. Kobe's death, while tragic, is more along the lines of current event discussion.
  - TrickyRick 7y ago
    It's related to aviation which always tends to make the front page. While this particular thread I think very much belongs here, there have been a bunch of links to nothing more than news articles over the last few days which are of little interest from a HN perspective.
- thinkingemote 7y ago
  Users do the flagging
kscriby 7y ago
For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a similar map over the weekend: https://coronavirus.app/ https://coronavirus.app/
- ShorsHammer 7y ago
  Completely offtopic: I'm really impressed that I can get the basic mapping with all javascript turned off. Kudos for that. Half the pages you visit these days can't even show text or pictures without js.
  - kscriby 7y ago
    Thanks! With this app, we just wanted to build something really basic that does its job with as little friction as possible, so glad you pointed that out.
  - clort 7y ago
    Um.. I had to enable scripts from jsdelivr.net to get past a blank screen?
    - ShorsHammer 7y ago
      Yep, seems you are correct, noscript shows it being blocked but I had the 3rd party scripts from https://cdn.jsdelivr.com/ https://cdn.jsdelivr.com/ whitelisted. Thought it might have simply been a splash page.
- ComodoHacker 7y ago
  Why Infected and Cured markers don't follow the colors of the legend?
  - kscriby 7y ago
    Well, they do on all the devices we've tested the app on. What device/browser are you using?
turk73 7y ago
The problem is that is the data we are receiving correct? I mean, China could be lying, the US Govt. could be lying, too. Governments lie--they lie about little things and they lie about big things. If an asteroid was going to hit Earth, would governments tell us the truth about that? No, because they would not want to "incite panic" and lose control over their power. So in a low-trust world, can you really trust anything a government tells you at all? No. Clearly not. That doesn't mean "panic" it just means, they don't have your interests at heart at all. Also, with China, they would just as soon throw the dead in mass graves and shut up about it as doing anything else.
joncrane 7y ago
Is the site down due to traffic? I'm getting intermittent errors.
lgl 7y ago
If this whistleblower [0] is to be believed, then the Chinese may be downplaying this [0] - https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1221100970521829377 https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1221100970521829377
- NhanHo 7y ago
  As much as I believe in the Chinese gov fudging the numbers, there is no way for a line medical workers to know or even estimates the true numbers at the scale of ten thousands patients.
- theseadroid 7y ago
  She said the R0 is 14? Seems very inconsistent with other sources(Chinese or otherwise[1]). We can take this video into consideration but there's no need to disregard other sources completely and only trust her. 1. example from another comment below: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22168981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22168981
dogma1138 7y ago
Nextstrain has a better visualization https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov
scw 7y ago
The methodological approach and data sources are detailed in the associated post by JHU professor Lauren Gardner: https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/ https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
shadowgovt 7y ago
If these stats hold, the disease looks to have a mortality of around 2%. Doesn't sound like a lot, but an R0 of >2 is concerning because of what it means for total infected. 2% of everyone within range of access to modern transportation is an awful lot of people.
- theseadroid 7y ago
  The problem is not many patients who have contracted the virus have released from hospital yet. Any there are many serious cases. From many Chinese sources such as [1], Chinese gov's data shows there are 4515 confirmed cases, 106 deaths, 976 in critical conditions, recovered and discharged only 60 cases. So I'm not sure how we should calculate mortality rate right now. 1. https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-51276067 https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-51276067
- sliken 7y ago
  So far the number of recovered people is trailing deaths, if that holds then it's going to be pretty dire.
BiasRegularizer 7y ago
Baidu's realtime map has a higher count this, though in Chinese. It seems to be more up to date, with detailed patient info sometimes included in the news tab. https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia
angry_octet 7y ago
Terrible geocoding -- the one case in Sydney, state of NSW, is drawn as a dot in what is guess is the centroid of the state, hundreds of km away from anywhere.
vackosar 7y ago
here is a chart with log scale option http://coronaviruschart.com/ http://coronaviruschart.com/
brylie 7y ago
Please don't use circle radius for indicating the number of observations. It is really easy to confuse the circle radius with the geographic extent of the observations, when in reality they are likely more tightly clustered. Rather, consider using a heatmap to show the proportional density of observations in a way that better highlights their geographic distribution.
Timothycquinn 7y ago
Would be great to have a way to roll through time rather than just look at present day. Great presentation tool.
scepticalmind 7y ago
Has anyone questioned weather this virus has infected any other race of people other than Asians?

267 points by ranadeep 7y ago

obilgic 7y ago

This looks a lot more serious compared to a week ago.

ShorsHammer 7y ago
People who are actually concerned at this stage while ignoring the scientists who say there's no proof it's serious are prime examples of the types who get worked up by the media hypetrain and should be actively avoided. It's a harsh assessment but honestly think it's the case. The media sell stories. People click on those stories, the stories that get clicked on most get other stories written on the topic. This is how the industry works. It's actually quite a simple model. Human beings are fucking terrible at risk assessment. What do people here think the risk is for them of dying of coronavirus compared to say dying in a traffic accident? Which is more likely to happen to you by a few magnitudes?
- swader999 7y ago
  China just shut down 15 cities and 2 provinces with nearly 80 million people and put men with guns in nbc suits at all the exits,shut down the internet,stop all travel and extend public holidays Im sure its perfectly harmless
  - theseadroid 7y ago
    Please cite the source of shutting down the internet. As a Chinese, as far as I read only physical movement are prohibited. Many people stay at home play online games now.
- clarry 7y ago
  If the 2% mortality rate is correct, then the risk of dying to the virus is significantly higher than my risk of dying in traffic. It is bad if such a potent virus were to spread everywhere. That said, I don't trust the numbers so at this point it's hard to say. My gut says there are way more infected people than reported, but deaths are probably less likely to be underreported at that scale. Which means mortality rate would actually be significantly lower than 2%. On flip side, the chance of getting infected would be much higher.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- ta999999171 7y ago
  You can outsmart a traffic accident. Tough for most to outrun/outsmart an epidemic. Read/watch some of the Twitter whistleblowers. Govs have no reason to tell everyone the true risks - and every reason to hide them.
  - ShorsHammer 7y ago
    > You can outsmart a traffic accident. That's absurd considering how many people are unwilling victims of accidents, how exactly would you outsmart it? Never leave home?
    - ta999999171 7y ago
      No, be an above-average professional driver that can predict accidents based on driving behavior. It's a thing.
      - ShorsHammer 7y ago
        So everyone can simply just be above-average? Given how that is the cognitive bias most widely associated with driving it's a tad ironic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority Regardless, let's turn that comment around: could it not similarly apply to hygiene and risk of infection? Just be an above-average smart citizen and you'll be fine, yes?

growlist 7y ago

Nice to see some Esri-powered apps getting some exposure.

chrononaut 7y ago

One minor note is that the "real time" nature of this map is a bit deceiving at the moment, at least to me. While the specific figures imply that it's pulling data at a near real-time basis, it's still dependent on countries posting the latest figures in batch, and then being updated as last indicated in the top right. As of now, it seems verbal announcements precede the digital announcements and as such I've found journalist-maintained maps to be a bit more up to date with the latest announcements, such as the one maintained by the NYTimes. Although if this continues to spread to different demographics, this map will probably have much higher utility.

imeron 7y ago
Last updated: a few seconds ago "As of Jan 27, 2020 8:30 pm EST". The title of the page here on HN and also the last updated lines are kinda misleading.
contingencies 7y ago
Absolutely. It's marketing bullshit. Nobody has current figures. In fact, multiple specialist academics said ~3 days ago that only 5% of cases are confirmed, now may be less due to reports of equipment shortages, the additional time the virus has had to disperse geographically, and Chinese New Year. Therefore, we can multiply any official figures by 20x. Official figures are nearing 5,000 cases, which extrapolating from those estimates means we're at around 100,000 infections as of today. Source: I wrote and am maintaining an animated map of the domestic spread (the one on Wikipedia), over here: https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-coronavirus-data/ https://github.com/globalcitizen/2019-wuhan-coronavirus-data... .. powered by two scrapers, main one is from DXY, which is ahead of this 'real time' map by many hours, judging by total figures.
- infinity0 7y ago
  The exponential growth always slows at some point, so unconditionally multiplying by 20 is unrealistic.
  - scottLobster 7y ago

adhoc32 7y ago

So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?

rapsey 7y ago
Chinese numbers are entirely untrustable.
kenneth 7y ago
Is it really that few fully recovered?
jokoon 7y ago
Isn't that too early since there are still thousands of new cases? The survival rate can improve. Most of those deaths are probably early patients who did not benefit from proper cares since at the time they did not know what it was.
christkv 7y ago
I think we should look at survival rate for patients in western care to get a better understanding of the rate of death when under better care.
- catalogia 7y ago
  I don't think there are enough cases outside China to perform that analysis yet. Of the 4474 cases, only 65 are outside China. My stats is rusty, but given that something like 2-3% of that 4474 in China have died, I think zero deaths from 65 cases outside China doesn't mean a ton.
wuschel 7y ago
I guess it is difficult to know if these are the right numbers. Elderly people, and people with a disposition (eg. COPD) are much more vulnerable to a corona virus infection. I would wait before more people have gone through the disease before making a conclusion about statistics such as case fatality rates et cetera.
7y ago

maayank 7y ago

Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at these locations is significant or not.

akmarinov 7y ago
Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.
- m12k 7y ago
  A relevant question is also, if most deaths really are among immunocompromised, elderly or very young, then how many of those 2% would have been killed by the flu or similar if coronavirus hadn't shown up? 14 million dead is terrible by any measure, but I'm wondering how much of a change over the norm it actually represents.
  - sarabande 7y ago
    I'm not an epidemiologist. Anyway, I looked up the most recent CDC flu death estimates for 2018-2019[1]: 34157 dead from 35520883 infected, let's see how much hire a 2% corona virus mortality rate is above the normal flu mortality rate in the US: >>> .02 / (34157 / 35520883.) 20.798596480955588 About 21 times higher. [1]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    It's 3-4 orders of magnitude more deadly than the normal seasonal flu. The mortality rate is similar to SARS, but with far more infections. The above comment saying that it "mostly" impacts elderly is a bit vague. The fact that within the first 100 deaths were multiple young healthy people means it is dangerous for the entire population. People in their 30s and 40s are not "old".

tsukurimashou 7y ago

I get: Fatal Errors Unable to load https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/items/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6/data?f=json https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/item... status: 502 d@https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:112:340 https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:112:340 d@https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:140:425 https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:140:425 f@https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:145:35 https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:145:35 Maybe the load is a bit too heavy for the app at the moment EDIT: after a few attempts I was able to load the map, it is nicely done!

tictok4 7y ago
You probably have refer disabled or spoofed. "Fix" that and it may work
- tsukurimashou 7y ago
  yeah no it was just load, otherwise it would not work randomly like that

seren 7y ago

Given the distribution in China, it looks like it is not going to be contained in Wuhan, even with a quarantine.

bangboombang 7y ago
Yeah. I mean as a Plague, Inc. player I have to give kudos to this virus. Having the outbreak shortly before the spring festival is genius, the travel ban for Wuhan came so late that many people already traveled to all over the country to meet their families, greatly helping the spread. I'm staying inside for now...
- sogen 7y ago
  yup, also this: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-outbreak-says-5-million-people-left-the-city-before-travel-restrictions-were-imposed-2020-01-26?mod=community-commons https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-o... oh, and this, a BSL-4 lab: https://www.nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nature.2017.21487 https://www.nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nature.2017.2148...
- aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA 7y ago
  https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/01/plague-inc-maker-dont-use-our-game-for-coronavirus-modeling/ https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2020/01/plague-inc-maker-dont...

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

cynicalreason 7y ago

almost 4% mortality rate in Hubei is pretty scary, I imagine a lot has to do with China not reporting real infection numbers which are rumoured to be much higher

GistNoesis 7y ago

Does it display potentially infected planes and boats like in Plague Inc yet ?

dazhbog 7y ago

I also use this that has a slightly more up to date numbers. https://jobtube.cn/wv/ https://jobtube.cn/wv/

stevespang 7y ago

Works fine for me, very slow to load. You can bet that >90% of all these cases outside China are Chinese traveling back to foreign countries.

lysp 7y ago

Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. > ● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas. > ● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. > ● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. > ● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings. Source: https://twitter.com/char_durand/status/1221997021663387649 https://twitter.com/char_durand/status/1221997021663387649

infinity0 7y ago
What about a 99.99% reduction in travel? Wuhan has 11 million and 1% of that is 100k, I'd imagine the quarantine is more successful than preventing 100k people from travelling.

molteanu 7y ago

@mods, there was the news the other day about Kobe's death. It got flagged, and for good reason. Why is this coronavirus stuff not flagged also? There are currently 3 articles on the front page related to this. It just slipped or is there a reason for this?

cthalupa 7y ago
It's a (mildly) scientific discussion. Lots of medical discussion happens on HN due to their scientific nature. Kobe's death, while tragic, is more along the lines of current event discussion.
- TrickyRick 7y ago
  It's related to aviation which always tends to make the front page. While this particular thread I think very much belongs here, there have been a bunch of links to nothing more than news articles over the last few days which are of little interest from a HN perspective.
thinkingemote 7y ago
Users do the flagging

kscriby 7y ago

For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a similar map over the weekend: https://coronavirus.app/ https://coronavirus.app/

ShorsHammer 7y ago
Completely offtopic: I'm really impressed that I can get the basic mapping with all javascript turned off. Kudos for that. Half the pages you visit these days can't even show text or pictures without js.
- kscriby 7y ago
  Thanks! With this app, we just wanted to build something really basic that does its job with as little friction as possible, so glad you pointed that out.
- clort 7y ago
  Um.. I had to enable scripts from jsdelivr.net to get past a blank screen?
  - ShorsHammer 7y ago
    Yep, seems you are correct, noscript shows it being blocked but I had the 3rd party scripts from https://cdn.jsdelivr.com/ https://cdn.jsdelivr.com/ whitelisted. Thought it might have simply been a splash page.
ComodoHacker 7y ago
Why Infected and Cured markers don't follow the colors of the legend?
- kscriby 7y ago
  Well, they do on all the devices we've tested the app on. What device/browser are you using?

turk73 7y ago

The problem is that is the data we are receiving correct? I mean, China could be lying, the US Govt. could be lying, too. Governments lie--they lie about little things and they lie about big things. If an asteroid was going to hit Earth, would governments tell us the truth about that? No, because they would not want to "incite panic" and lose control over their power. So in a low-trust world, can you really trust anything a government tells you at all? No. Clearly not. That doesn't mean "panic" it just means, they don't have your interests at heart at all. Also, with China, they would just as soon throw the dead in mass graves and shut up about it as doing anything else.

joncrane 7y ago

Is the site down due to traffic? I'm getting intermittent errors.

lgl 7y ago

If this whistleblower [0] is to be believed, then the Chinese may be downplaying this [0] - https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1221100970521829377 https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1221100970521829377

NhanHo 7y ago
As much as I believe in the Chinese gov fudging the numbers, there is no way for a line medical workers to know or even estimates the true numbers at the scale of ten thousands patients.
theseadroid 7y ago
She said the R0 is 14? Seems very inconsistent with other sources(Chinese or otherwise[1]). We can take this video into consideration but there's no need to disregard other sources completely and only trust her. 1. example from another comment below: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22168981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22168981

dogma1138 7y ago

Nextstrain has a better visualization https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov

scw 7y ago

The methodological approach and data sources are detailed in the associated post by JHU professor Lauren Gardner: https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/ https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

shadowgovt 7y ago

If these stats hold, the disease looks to have a mortality of around 2%. Doesn't sound like a lot, but an R0 of >2 is concerning because of what it means for total infected. 2% of everyone within range of access to modern transportation is an awful lot of people.

theseadroid 7y ago
The problem is not many patients who have contracted the virus have released from hospital yet. Any there are many serious cases. From many Chinese sources such as [1], Chinese gov's data shows there are 4515 confirmed cases, 106 deaths, 976 in critical conditions, recovered and discharged only 60 cases. So I'm not sure how we should calculate mortality rate right now. 1. https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-51276067 https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-51276067
sliken 7y ago
So far the number of recovered people is trailing deaths, if that holds then it's going to be pretty dire.

BiasRegularizer 7y ago

Baidu's realtime map has a higher count this, though in Chinese. It seems to be more up to date, with detailed patient info sometimes included in the news tab. https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia

angry_octet 7y ago

Terrible geocoding -- the one case in Sydney, state of NSW, is drawn as a dot in what is guess is the centroid of the state, hundreds of km away from anywhere.

vackosar 7y ago

here is a chart with log scale option http://coronaviruschart.com/ http://coronaviruschart.com/

brylie 7y ago

Please don't use circle radius for indicating the number of observations. It is really easy to confuse the circle radius with the geographic extent of the observations, when in reality they are likely more tightly clustered. Rather, consider using a heatmap to show the proportional density of observations in a way that better highlights their geographic distribution.

Timothycquinn 7y ago

Would be great to have a way to roll through time rather than just look at present day. Great presentation tool.

scepticalmind 7y ago

Has anyone questioned weather this virus has infected any other race of people other than Asians?