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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

201 points by reddotX 7y ago

beamatronic 7y ago
The horror stories about 3 month wait for parts and the videos of water intruding into new vehicles, are keeping me away.
- Waterluvian 7y ago
  I love Tesla for its effect of pushing the EV industry forward. And I love Tesla early adopters for largely funding and justifying investment in this. But yeah, every time I daydream about owning a Tesla, I realise that it's my daydream about owning an Apple Newton.
  - billiam 7y ago
    This.
- taf2 7y ago
  so i have an x and when it rains we do sometimes get some water into the back seat when raising the trunk... but to keep this in perspective... the car is like an iphone compared to your flip phone. 2007 was a long time ago so maybe people forget just how impactful that phone was when people first tried it out. That is the exact same experience I have had when first owning and S and now an X. A minor issue like water when raising the trunk on an exceptionally rainy day is just that minor when you compare it to the amazing feeling you get when the over the air update alert hits your phone and you start to wonder whether you'll get the latest update to detect stop signs. Or as I recall in 2014 - an audio up/down control near the passenger seat. Imagine if you were annoyed at the UI in your current car. With all of it's physical buttons that is it. You have no luck unless you buy a different car. In a Tesla if the UI is an issue they'll push an update and you'll have a new car without buying one. Let alone the buying experience of a Tesla vs anything else. Go online swipe your credit card... wait sometime and show up at a Tesla store and drive away with your car or they deliver it to your house. No haggling, no sleazy car salesman just a new car that gives you that feeling of an iphone in 2007 vs the old flip phone.... I am sure i sound like a fan boy... and I know my wife wishes i'd stop talking about it but it's pretty freaking worth it and nice.
  - mikestew 7y ago
    Imagine if you were annoyed at the UI in your current car. Don’t have to, the UI in the Leaf (at least in the first gen), sucks. But you know what would annoy me more? If my $50K+ car leaked water. That’s something the industry figured out over fifty years ago. I’ll take a shitty UI over over water invading spaces I won’t find out about until the rust and bad wiring show up.
    - Damogran6 7y ago
      Depends on the vehicle...Our C5 Corvette didn't get teh last minute deflectors and used to spill water on the rear speakers when opening in the wet. They fix a lot of problems, but the customers demanding new designs every few years means we still keep fixing some of the same problems over and over.
      - beamatronic 7y ago
        I’m talking about water pouring out of the sunroof, and coming out of the dashboard
  - whatshisface 7y ago
    I'll weigh in on the curmudgeon side. The knobs in my car were perfect from the day I bought it because they were optimized by engineers over decades. If there was ever a UI issue, it was corrected before I was born. Because the controls are physical I can operate them by touch and habit while focusing on the road. Years of driving have resulted in mental circuits that automatically detect stop signs and manage lane-keeping with zero conscious attention, just as easy as walking. No-haggle direct manufacturer purchases are good, though. I can only agree with that.
    - RandallBrown 7y ago
      Lots of things have changed in cars since you born and their interfaces have hardly been perfected. Namely things to do with phones like navigation, music, or phone calls. Not to mention things like improved climate control or safety (like the sentry system.)
- coder1001 7y ago
  Once Tesla's operations are running smoothly, most of these issues should fix themselves.
  - MBCook 7y ago
    We’ve been hearing that for years. What keeps holding it back? Why aren’t things smooth yet?
    - qaq 7y ago
      Because they are ramping up rapidly?
      - MBCook 7y ago
        It’s just that every time it seems like they might be about to start to get stable they launch some new vehicle and we go through another period of ‘ramping up’. The older vehicles don’t seem to get stable even though the S has been out for years now. People use the 3 (or truck or...) as the excuse for why things are still a bit rough.
        qaq 7y ago
        To me ramp up is more a function of org. grows than specifically new model.
        coder1001 7y ago
        For a company breaking new grounds and pushing EVs, I would give them at least another 10 years. It is not ideal, but you have to take into account that it takes time to build your network (charging/service centers etc.). That's why if the money comes, the rest will fall into place (in time of course!).
        MBCook 7y ago
        So if I were to buy a Tesla today I should expect their service department to be problematic for possibly 10 years? That doesn’t sound odd to you? I get when they were selling the roadster or early S. But 10 years from now?
- docbrown 7y ago
  Tesla has always had body alignment issues since their first attempt, the Model S. It’s honestly quite unfortunate because these models are suppose to be a shiny example of American manual labor pushing out the new luxury model that would set Tesla up to enter the mid level market with a Model 3. Sadly, technological advances, a backlog of orders, and minimal factory space, all contributed to a decline in quality. Don’t get me wrong, these are absolutely beautiful cars, but in terms of actual construction of the vehicles, GM and Ford has nailed this to perfection with their automatic + human labor assembly lines. They’re able to produce numbers right now that Tesla can only dream about with a much higher satisfaction rate, I would think. If Musk wants to really compete with the Big 3, he has to focus on quality all the way around and not just the ability to slap bigger batteries in and more speed through firmware updates. If you want to make a car, focus on the basics of it—the actual body, making sure my door lines up with my front fenders. Such basic cosmetic issues that are overlooked constantly on the cars coming from the Tesla factory.
  - SEJeff 7y ago
    The quality on the 3 is fine. I've heard so many panel gap anecdotes and "fit and finish" problem that I was a bit excessive in my inspection of my Model 3 before I took delivery (November 2018). It was fine. There are no quality problems that I've been able to ascertain. The only real kind of weird thing is the polarized glass on the roof turns a really strange but beautiful color when it gets wet. The car drives like nothing I've ever driven, not even a higher end mercedes.
    - jmelloy 7y ago
      It looks so weird and cool when it's wet that I wonder if they did it on purpose. It delights strangers who see it the first time.
      - SEJeff 7y ago
        Yup! My daughter absolutely adores it
- mkhpalm 7y ago
  I personally would buy one if I could. But if I'm not allowed to get parts for it and work on it then its not a viable vehicle to me. I can't be beholden on whatever schedule the service department has or how fast they can get parts. Which sounds like not very fast.
skybrian 7y ago
Can't read the article but I'm thinking maybe they don't need to worry about convertible bonds anymore?
ibic 7y ago
Believe people are betting on its future. (Shanghai Mega-Factory seems doing pretty smoothly is probably one of the factor as well)
martythemaniak 7y ago
For a while TSLA had an absurd amount of short positions against it, IIRC something like an order of magnitude more than other companies. Perhaps we are seeing a short squeeze? I'd love to see data (and interpretation) on how this has changed.
- klhiouyert98 7y ago
  You can't fight meme magic. Old skool investors don't understand this yet. They see Elon smoking pot and they short. They see him dancing, they short again. They see his bumbling presentation skills and smashed CyberTruck windows, have a laugh and put one more billion against him. And then they open his twitter and you can imagine what they do when they see him posting absolute units of a sheep... https://fortune.com/2020/01/10/elon-musk-tesla-stock-short-sellers/ https://fortune.com/2020/01/10/elon-musk-tesla-stock-short-s...
  - rjkennedy98 7y ago
    I feel this is a very small part of it. There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. And it could go on and on. Tesla, lets face it, is a cult stock. If you believe in the valuation, that's fine, but there have been plenty of bubbles over the years and especially recently (bitcoin and weedstocks come to mind), and Tesla would not be the first item driven to loft valuations based on unrealistic expectations.
    - klhiouyert98 7y ago
      I think the recent bump is because (some) investors are starting to understand that CyberTruck will not be a flop as widely predicted on it's launch. Again, meme-magic. If the CyberTruck was unveiled by BMW or Ford, the response would have been much more muted.
    - jsight 7y ago
      > There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. The problem is that those issues are exaggerated for Tesla and understated for other makes. This leads to weird volatility with Tesla, IMO, and I think this latest exaggerated surge to a high valuation is a part of that. Execution problems? You mean like the delayed VW ID.3? These problems happen all the time. Reliability issues... hmm Ford had major transmission problems on the Focus, Honda had transmission problems on the Accord a few years back and Nissan has struggled with CVT issues for years. But these don't make the press all that much, because they are boring. But Cybertrucks and an occasional battery fire? Those are front page news, and each creates wild exaggerated swings. Overall the extra attention helps Tesla, of course.
brenden2 7y ago
How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style of Teslas very much. The lack something, and the style has a cheapness to it. With that said, TSLA has been helping my portfolio, so I appreciate that.
- voxic11 7y ago
  Being 100% electric is a pretty huge advantage, I wouldn't underestimate it. While I don't own a Tesla myself I have only heard good things from people who do.
- tyfon 7y ago
  I've had a model X long range raven for six months and it's fantastic. When I bought it I was seriously considering e-tron but it doesn't stack up in features (both inside and in the drive train / battery). The panels might be a mm off some places but there is not a squeak from it when driving and it's very comfortable. Personally it will take a lot to persuade me to buy another brand in the future. Edit: forgot about the supercharger network as it's just so natural. That alone makes it worth every penny.
- lm28469 7y ago
  As far as I can tell teslas are good cars, but more important than that they are status symbols.
- slap_shot 7y ago
  I don't own a Tesla but listen to a lot of podcasts that feature car enthusiasts. The reviews are pretty positive across the board. Regarding the cheapness, people almost universally agree the interiors feel cheap at the price you're paying. I sat in one recently and have to agree.
- pikklemonster 7y ago
  Owner of a 3 (performance, all options) built in July 2018. I was also nervous about build quality. My personal experience has been pretty great, however. Only a minor issue which the mobile repair truck came out and fixed in my company's parking lot. I didn't even have to go to a service center. Style is all subjective however there is a real minimalist chic to the 3 interior which I have come to love. In my wife's Merc (similar price to what I paid in 2018) things just feel "cluttered." To each it's own, though. Zero regrets and would buy again!
swarnie_ 7y ago
How i would love more then anything to short this company and retire in my mid-30s. The price just seems completely irrational to me especially in the auto market. E: I forgot this place was full of Space Jesus' fan boys...
oliverx0 7y ago
According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profits, and they think Tesla's e-cars are the future.” I still don’t get it. You may think it’s the future, but to justify such a valuation over all other car companies which have been operating for years, and who can compete with Tesla, it seems a little extreme IMO. EDIT: after reading some comments it seems my conclusions might be inaccurate. All I wanted to point out was that the numbers were shocking at first sight.
- awayfromhomenow 7y ago
  Everything with humans has a social component. This is a social valuation of Tesla that has nothing to do with the current value of the company. I like Tesla, and hope we go all electric soon, but this is a premature overvaluing of the company (in my opinion).
- bryanlarsen 7y ago
  If you google "ford enterprise value" and "tesla enterprise value" you get values of 156B and 86B, respectively. Stockholders are not the only people who have claims on the liquidation value and future profits of a company. Bondholders and pensioners do as well. Market cap != valuation.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - kbutler 7y ago
    Right, those other claim holders represent reductions in the value of the company. If I borrow $300 billion (heh) and call myself a car company, that doesn't make me a more valuable company than Ford and Tesla combined - my net worth hasn't changed. Market cap == (perceived) value. Enterprise value is the COST TO PURCHASE the company, if I'm considering buying it. Like buying a used car and assuming payments: enterprise value (real cost) = purchase price + loan balance - coins under the seats Market cap is the cash I have to pay up-front Debt is the new debt I will have to pay when I own it. Cash-on-hand is the cash I get back when I buy it
josephdviviano 7y ago
https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-reinhart-e.pdf https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-r...
sabujp 7y ago
opening up business in china does a funny thing to a stock, wall street loves china
- hogFeast 7y ago
  Er no. It was the fact that the govt gave the Tusk ~$2bn of free money (and when the money was running out i.e. it really changed the narrative around the stock).
Diederich 7y ago
I've been a big Tesla fan for a while now. Certainly a big part of me is happy, perhaps even a bit smug, to see the share price so high. Even though I'm pretty sure electric vehicles are the future, and that Tesla has, at a minimum, brought that future closer to the now, I still think its share price is borderline insane, and, in the end, doesn't serve the company or the vision as well as a more moderate, stable price. I also acknowledge that its CEO has not only not taken reasonable steps to 'calm things down', but has done the opposite. Having said all that, I could be wrong, and perhaps Tesla's sales are substantially driven by all of this crazy energy, positive and negative.
aj7 7y ago
The correction will be precipitous. There is no reason to believe that even at the 1M vehicle level, they can be so profitable, when engaged with direct competition with other experienced producers, to justify such a market capitalization. The same cost issues will affect all companies, and I believe some Tesla technical advantages will erode.
- JKCalhoun 7y ago
  Agree. Their customers are those who are making bank on the bull market run we've been riding. If the market should fall, Tesla will fall hardest.
  - oiasdjfoiasd 7y ago
    lol. some people will never learn.
- Robotbeat 7y ago
  I think the reason why Tesla is valued highly is that they won't stop growing at 1M vehicle production rate. (Whereas GM and others like it are stagnating or even declining in vehicle production: https://www.statista.com/statistics/225326/amount-of-cars-sold-by-general-motors-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/225326/amount-of-cars-so... ) They're selling mostly cars in their home market which is dominated by trucks and crossovers. They have a mass market crossover coming to market this year and a truck soon after. Overseas, they just built their first new factory in the biggest EV market in the world (China) that seems to already be doing well, and they're already starting to clear land on their European factory (whose market ought to be bigger than the North American market as well). The wild card is climate action. If the world has to severely cut back on fossil fuels, electric vehicles will be enormous, and Tesla's are the most compelling by a large margin, in spite of several attempts by large carmakers. There's also the storage market, the solar roof market (granted, mostly a California thing for now for Tesla), grid storage market (fairly large and likely to get much larger if climate action becomes critical), and the Semi truck (which is MUCH more compelling than other electric trucks, by an even larger margin than, say, the X is versus the e-tron). So I think long-term they have a decent chance of producing millions of vehicles and with significant revenue from non-passenger-vehicles like grid storage and long-haul trucking. If there's a 50:50 chance of global climate mobilization, that's a 50:50 chance of market conditions basically perfect for Tesla... and even without that (as in right now), they seem to be capable of being marginally profitable and still growing. So the upside is high and the downside is low. I haven't mentioned autopilot or self-driving because I think the case for Tesla's value is strong without that more questionable argument. I hold no individual stock.
samsonradu 7y ago
Just to provide some context, most indexes and large tech companies are at an all-time-high. It’s not just Tesla ‘doing great’.
- chasd00 7y ago
  that's a good point. At the moment, it's kind of hard for a tech stock symbol to not do great.
  - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
    Apart from IBM.
- ecwilson 7y ago
  Apple is up 100% in the last year for no good reason.
  - Slartie 7y ago
    Apple is up 100% because it's kind of the safe haven among tech companies. It actually has the earnings to justify its market value even when using conventional P/E ratio evaluations. This means that if the current oversupply of "fantasy" in the stock markets, especially the tech markets, should ever run out, Apple will most likely be much less affected than most other companies. Lots of tech-interested investors realized this and decided to take some of the gains made with more risky bets into this "safe haven", because this lets them continue to invest in a tech company at least. And that's why the stock is up regardless of any new groundbreaking product from Apple.
    - samsonradu 7y ago
      A luxury product company becoming a safe haven pretty much speaks for itself on how distorted things are.
- tempsy 7y ago
  Uh Tesla was $180 six months ago. That's a 185% gain. Far more than the S&P. Few large cap companies have gained that much in such a short amount of time. Don't rain on the Tesla parade. Or discount the price movement as "in line".
jansan 7y ago
Anyone remember Volkswagen shares at 1000€ in October 2008? This was a textbook example of a shortsqueeze. One German billionaire saw that the share value was at a ridiculous high level, so he shorted it. He was correct, but too early, so he lost all his money and committed suicide. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/ https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day...
- chasd00 7y ago
  "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  - jansan 7y ago
    That's what I told a friend last summer when he talked about Tesla being the perfect short opportunity. Tesla stock is an extremely hot iron. You can tell by the huge daily swings that it is being played in some way, and as an amateur you are usually the one paying the pros in these scenarios.
nif2ee 7y ago
As is the case with Apple, Tesla is a cult and obviously Musk learned from Steve Jobs that cults beat facts, cults create empires and make bad as equal as good and sane people can do nothing about it. That's how the great empires and religions were built in the old days and that's how "great" companies are being built today.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 7y ago
  Or: it's just the only company that makes a compelling product line for the biggest global market (energy and auto) while the rest of the industry keep selling fossil fuel and internal combustion engines, both of which are destroying our habitat an ever faster pace. The cult is believing we can keep marketing ICE cars and pumping CO2 in the atmosphere and still expect to make money. https://i.redd.it/xobkagxotot01.jpg https://i.redd.it/xobkagxotot01.jpg The market cap of TSLA remains tiny compared to trillions $ of stranded assets of the oil and ICE industry.
ecwilson 7y ago
Current valuations, Tesla and Apple among the most prominent, are so far disconnected from reality that it echoes the dot com bubble. But this time, the cause is not dot com mania -- but buybacks, driven by reckless financial policy. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENmRB6aVAAEziTn?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENmRB6aVAAEziTn?format=jpg&name=...
deleted 7y ago
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dangus 7y ago
Technology sharing is very important to the modern car industry. Cars are incredibly complicated and if you follow news in the industry, in many cases brands will make technology sharing agreements so that they aren’t duplicating efforts. That’s where Tesla is well-positioned for the future compared to Ford and GM. They have a whole platform and a battery manufacturing facility where other car brands may become Tesla customers in the future. Disregarding things like build quality or fit and finish, my understanding is that Tesla’s battery platform and powertrain is the industry leader. If investors think that gas cars will essentially be irrelevant 20 years, I could see why Tesla is so valuable.
- rjkennedy98 7y ago
  The irony is that its actually not that well positioned in autonomous driving, which could be the only thing that could really driving the incredibly valuations it has now. GM, for instance, by most reports is significantly ahead of Telsa.
cs702 7y ago
I have an inkling that Tesla has now gained long-term credibility, and we're on the cusp of seeing much broader adoption by a mass of non-early adopters -- people who will evaluate buying a Tesla the same way they would evaluate any other brand, based on boring criteria like long-term quality, day-to-day reliability, service convenience, overall reputation, interior features, exterior design, and resale value. The stock market appears to be pricing this scenario. Conversely, the worst-case scenario for Tesla as a business, at this juncture, may be that it finds itself unable to remain financially sustainable over time... and ends up getting acquired by another car marker salivating over the prospects of getting its hands on the company's technology and infrastructure. PS. I write this as someone who has purchased and owned multiple luxury European vehicles (mainly BMW and Mercedes) for the past 20+ years; for the first time, I'm seriously considering switching over to a Tesla when I replace my current vehicle.
SnowingXIV 7y ago
How close are they to figuring out how to handle holding a battery charge in colder temperatures? A few owners around here I've spoken with have said they are experiencing nearly half the mileage this winter season and it's been a struggle for longer daily commutes. They also need to preheat the battery and some have resorted to using another vehicle. Been on the fence for a while and since we operate with one car that would troublesome.
- ilikehurdles 7y ago
  This is a big reason I avoided a Tesla this time around. If you live in Colorado and ski, you'll not only often be parking your car in extremely cold temperatures overnight, but also know that blockages on I-70 during sub-freezing temperatures are relatively common, and those blockages can add anywhere from half an hour to 6 hours to a commute. There's already a high enough risk that the battery range will be reduced in that weather, that my destination won't have a fast-charger, and that I won't be able to fully charge the vehicle overnight; but, the risk of me being unable to start the car on the highway in that weather were too much for it to be a useful option. To be fair, Tesla is much more of a viable to me than any other EV, but as someone who works from home and only uses their car for excursions rather than daily commuting, it's not for me.
JoshTko 7y ago
I wonder what NYU prof Scott Galloway thinks of this given his Oct 2019 prediction that Tesla will lose 80% of its value.
- cagenut 7y ago
  he's like a modern social-media-native version of jim cramer
tempsy 7y ago
Really incredible. I remember when it was trading at $18.
rhacker 7y ago
While this is great for a variety of reasons... I'm lamenting on the cybrtrck. Initially after the release I was kinda excited. Lately I have been wishing it just looked like a regular truck and did things that regular trucks can do - especially since I'm big on RVs: Cab over (fuck out of luck there). Fifth wheel? (Bed is probably not standard and probably no one will have the knowledge of putting in the rails or a puck system. In other words we're looking at best travel trailers. I'm also sceptical they're going to the enough standard tow package equipment. I just have this feeling that no one that works at Tesla owns trucks and tows things. (And when I say no one, I just feel like if 10% of the staff owns a dually that's not enough). If they don't put up a standard compete like Rivian, they're going to lose HUGE in this category. One last secondary gripe here - they keep saying it has more utility than a regular truck but here I am pointing out all the things it can't do that a typical truck can. Beyond that, can you even ATTACH a snow plow?
- cagenut 7y ago
  thats not how you ship a v1 what is it about cars that make all software engineers turn into junior product managers.
  - rhacker 7y ago
    It would seem that all the other EV pickup startups in this space are thinking about what regular trucks do first.
sajithdilshan 7y ago
My gut feeling is that this is a short spike because of all the people who wants to take a bite at rising stock price. At some point people will realize that this is a ridiculous amount of money for a share of a company which is yet to prove that the company is massively profitable. When the price collapse, it will be a steep down curve.
- ASalazarMX 7y ago
  My take as well. At the end of 2019 the financial spam changed from "TESLA IS SINKING! SELL!" to "TESLA IS AWESOME! BUY!".
csomar 7y ago
Here is another possibility: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CCMP:IND https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CCMP:IND The whole market was up 25-30% (Nasdaq). Now, as a trader, you know that there are companies that follow the market return, or accentuate it (from both directions). TSLA being a tech company meant that you got better returns (50%) which are not too far from the Nasdaq returns. Apple returns were even crazier for a company its size: +100%! tl;dr: We are in a bull-market.
tempsy 7y ago
Does anyone else feel like HN is somewhat ironically a highly risk adverse community? (I say ironically because you'd think a community of those working in new tech would be more risk seeking than your average person) Seems like every time an individual stock is brought up there's 10 people claiming you're "gambling" with a disproportional amount of risk if you do anything but buy the index for every person that dares buy a company stock.
NicoJuicy 7y ago
I don't think anyone has a sustainable business model right now for the root cause ( climate change). Although Tesla seems to be the best option right now. I think the future will be a combination of electric bikes and greatly improved public transportation + reduced cost price. An electric car is still too resource heavy too make. I know a lot of people here who won't agree with me. But I'm pretty sure that they don't live in the Netherlands or Belgium ( where a lot of people cycle) or that this alternative is not viable there ( too cold or too wide). I also didn't say it was a perfect solution for all ( ev. The edge cases I gave here) and that people will easily adjust when they don't have the habit of cycling ( eg. No adjusted roads)
auiya 7y ago
In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesla. Tesla has one single SUV offering, and sales of that SUV are dismal. They just teased a pickup truck release with their 'cybertruck' product, but the design was purposely off-putting, and it only served to make a mockery of the market segment. So with one SUV that doesn't sell, and a parody of what is currently the highest selling platform in the US, I'm not sure why anyone speculates Tesla is in a place of upward trajectory. I don't buy the argument that other car companies can't/won't pivot to counter either. Porsche reverse engineered one of their Model S vehicles, admitted it was quite well-constructed, and then countered with the Taycan (by all reviews a better car) a mere 3-4 years later. I'm glad a company like Tesla exists to force the market to the EV concept, but most people will buy an EV when they know it's supported by a long established and trusted automaker like Toyota, Ford, Chevy, or Honda. Tesla then exists as a proof-of-concept model for the bigger players to follow, not as a displacement. It should also be noted, many motor companies are also investing quite a bit of money into alternative fuels like synthetic petrol and hydrogen, and don't want to rely on an energy source which is primarily derived from conflict zones. They aren't 100% sold yet that the EV platform is indeed the way forward.
- sergiosgc 7y ago
  Porsche planned to build 30k to 50k Taycans. It is a market test by Porsche, not a real competitor to the model S.
  - auiya 7y ago
    That's roughly four times the number of 911's they sell every year, and they're all back ordered. Sounds like a successful test to me. How many Tesla Model S's are sold each year?
- cdkee 7y ago
  People have been saying this for years. However, none of the other players have built a compelling product with widespread appeal or adoption. The E-Tron? iPace? Taycan? All have been more or less dead on arrival from an adoption and sales standpoint. Honda announced recently that they will be focusing on hybrid technology, not full electric. Toyota is backing their Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology. GM has the Bolt, a single full-electric offering. The Model 3 doesn't really have any meaningful competition at the moment IMO. Tesla has forced the industry to change and from where I'm standing no competing product has managed to holistically match the value proposition Tesla brings.
olivermarks 7y ago
California law as of Jan 1 requires all new houses to have solar panels, EV charging port, no natural gas allowed. This 100% electric future being forced is attractive to Wall Street as it forces change, despite adding ~300k to the house price. Wall Street bares no relation to the street where cars are powered by gasoline or diesel with few exceptions. It takes 75 minutes to charge a Tesla EV, much longer in cold climates (I have a Tesla owning acquaintance in Denver who confirms this). We are n a giant stock market bubble. Tesla is a good example if this aspirational earnings exuberance IMO
- legulere 7y ago
  At least in Germany it costs more like 15k for the roof of a big house.
  - xsmasher 7y ago
    300k is too much; 16k can cover half of your roof with panels, even in the SF Bay Area.
    - olivermarks 7y ago
      I was told this by a contractor friend in Ukiah California this weekend, he is now building these 2020 units and said TCI for abiding by the new laws was 300k on price of house to buyer
- tachyonbeam 7y ago
  There is no way this adds 300K to the price of a house, and it does not take 75 minutes to charge a Tesla, more like 15-30 minutes at a supercharger depending on your state of charge. Stop the FUD.
  - olivermarks 7y ago
    Supercharger technology Tesla logo at Supercharger station Tesla supercharging stations charge with up to 150 kW of power distributed between two cars with a maximum of 150[13][14] kW per car, depending on version.[15][6][16] They take about 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100% on the original 85 kWh Model S. The charging stations provide high-power direct-current (DC) charging power directly to the battery, bypassing the internal charging power supply.[1] The next version of Supercharging was expected to charge with more than 350 kW.[17][18] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger
mrnobody_67 7y ago
Plainsite recently published a 100-page report summarizing all the key findings from the tesla short or $TESLAQ community... some of the allegations around corporate governance, self-dealing, and outright lies are pretty damning if true: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tesla.html https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tesla.html Not endorsing their findings, merely saying it's an interesting read to understand the other side. Its allegations are well referenced with sources.
dwags 7y ago
I sold my car and now drive one of those Zebra mopeds in SD. Next time I buy a car, it will be electric.
birdyrooster 7y ago
The comments here seem to be lacking one perspective: Global climate change is going to force governments to ban the sale of internal combustion engines for consumer use. The markets are pricing in the expected regulations, which is why Tesla is getting such a premium since they are the most mature in the coming regulatory environment.
zcw100 7y ago
Enron looked great, right before it didn't. House prices will only continue to rise. All it takes is one drop of blood. Maybe that will be Tesla's fate, maybe it won't but it's naive to think that can't happen.
rich_sasha 7y ago
I think this highlights the value of the brand, the tangible counterpart of “hype”. What the sceptics call starry-eyed fundamentalism is a valuable revenue stream, for whatever reason. Tesla successfully created a story of being the only cool kid in a room full of dinosaurs. All other points good too, but didn’t see this mentioned.
gdubs 7y ago
A lot comes down to whether the market views Tesla as a car company, or a technology company. The pessimistic view is that they’re a car company and the valuation makes no sense compared to GM, Toyota, or VW. The optimistic view is that they’re a technology company that — if they manage to stay alive — will produce value from both their core offering and the edges of their business, much the way Amazon has with AWS, or Apple is doing in Services. Personally, I own a nominal number of shares and root for their success. But at the end of the day, it’s a Random Walk on Wall Street and predictions (good or bad) are largely speculation.

201 points by reddotX 7y ago

The horror stories about 3 month wait for parts and the videos of water intruding into new vehicles, are keeping me away.

Waterluvian 7y ago
I love Tesla for its effect of pushing the EV industry forward. And I love Tesla early adopters for largely funding and justifying investment in this. But yeah, every time I daydream about owning a Tesla, I realise that it's my daydream about owning an Apple Newton.
- billiam 7y ago
  This.
taf2 7y ago
so i have an x and when it rains we do sometimes get some water into the back seat when raising the trunk... but to keep this in perspective... the car is like an iphone compared to your flip phone. 2007 was a long time ago so maybe people forget just how impactful that phone was when people first tried it out. That is the exact same experience I have had when first owning and S and now an X. A minor issue like water when raising the trunk on an exceptionally rainy day is just that minor when you compare it to the amazing feeling you get when the over the air update alert hits your phone and you start to wonder whether you'll get the latest update to detect stop signs. Or as I recall in 2014 - an audio up/down control near the passenger seat. Imagine if you were annoyed at the UI in your current car. With all of it's physical buttons that is it. You have no luck unless you buy a different car. In a Tesla if the UI is an issue they'll push an update and you'll have a new car without buying one. Let alone the buying experience of a Tesla vs anything else. Go online swipe your credit card... wait sometime and show up at a Tesla store and drive away with your car or they deliver it to your house. No haggling, no sleazy car salesman just a new car that gives you that feeling of an iphone in 2007 vs the old flip phone.... I am sure i sound like a fan boy... and I know my wife wishes i'd stop talking about it but it's pretty freaking worth it and nice.
- mikestew 7y ago
  Imagine if you were annoyed at the UI in your current car. Don’t have to, the UI in the Leaf (at least in the first gen), sucks. But you know what would annoy me more? If my $50K+ car leaked water. That’s something the industry figured out over fifty years ago. I’ll take a shitty UI over over water invading spaces I won’t find out about until the rust and bad wiring show up.
  - Damogran6 7y ago
    Depends on the vehicle...Our C5 Corvette didn't get teh last minute deflectors and used to spill water on the rear speakers when opening in the wet. They fix a lot of problems, but the customers demanding new designs every few years means we still keep fixing some of the same problems over and over.
    - beamatronic 7y ago
      I’m talking about water pouring out of the sunroof, and coming out of the dashboard
- whatshisface 7y ago
  I'll weigh in on the curmudgeon side. The knobs in my car were perfect from the day I bought it because they were optimized by engineers over decades. If there was ever a UI issue, it was corrected before I was born. Because the controls are physical I can operate them by touch and habit while focusing on the road. Years of driving have resulted in mental circuits that automatically detect stop signs and manage lane-keeping with zero conscious attention, just as easy as walking. No-haggle direct manufacturer purchases are good, though. I can only agree with that.
  - RandallBrown 7y ago
    Lots of things have changed in cars since you born and their interfaces have hardly been perfected. Namely things to do with phones like navigation, music, or phone calls. Not to mention things like improved climate control or safety (like the sentry system.)
coder1001 7y ago
Once Tesla's operations are running smoothly, most of these issues should fix themselves.
- MBCook 7y ago
  We’ve been hearing that for years. What keeps holding it back? Why aren’t things smooth yet?
  - qaq 7y ago
    Because they are ramping up rapidly?
    - MBCook 7y ago
      It’s just that every time it seems like they might be about to start to get stable they launch some new vehicle and we go through another period of ‘ramping up’. The older vehicles don’t seem to get stable even though the S has been out for years now. People use the 3 (or truck or...) as the excuse for why things are still a bit rough.
      - qaq 7y ago
        To me ramp up is more a function of org. grows than specifically new model.
      - coder1001 7y ago
        For a company breaking new grounds and pushing EVs, I would give them at least another 10 years. It is not ideal, but you have to take into account that it takes time to build your network (charging/service centers etc.). That's why if the money comes, the rest will fall into place (in time of course!).
        MBCook 7y ago
        So if I were to buy a Tesla today I should expect their service department to be problematic for possibly 10 years? That doesn’t sound odd to you? I get when they were selling the roadster or early S. But 10 years from now?
docbrown 7y ago
Tesla has always had body alignment issues since their first attempt, the Model S. It’s honestly quite unfortunate because these models are suppose to be a shiny example of American manual labor pushing out the new luxury model that would set Tesla up to enter the mid level market with a Model 3. Sadly, technological advances, a backlog of orders, and minimal factory space, all contributed to a decline in quality. Don’t get me wrong, these are absolutely beautiful cars, but in terms of actual construction of the vehicles, GM and Ford has nailed this to perfection with their automatic + human labor assembly lines. They’re able to produce numbers right now that Tesla can only dream about with a much higher satisfaction rate, I would think. If Musk wants to really compete with the Big 3, he has to focus on quality all the way around and not just the ability to slap bigger batteries in and more speed through firmware updates. If you want to make a car, focus on the basics of it—the actual body, making sure my door lines up with my front fenders. Such basic cosmetic issues that are overlooked constantly on the cars coming from the Tesla factory.
- SEJeff 7y ago
  The quality on the 3 is fine. I've heard so many panel gap anecdotes and "fit and finish" problem that I was a bit excessive in my inspection of my Model 3 before I took delivery (November 2018). It was fine. There are no quality problems that I've been able to ascertain. The only real kind of weird thing is the polarized glass on the roof turns a really strange but beautiful color when it gets wet. The car drives like nothing I've ever driven, not even a higher end mercedes.
  - jmelloy 7y ago
    It looks so weird and cool when it's wet that I wonder if they did it on purpose. It delights strangers who see it the first time.
    - SEJeff 7y ago
      Yup! My daughter absolutely adores it
mkhpalm 7y ago
I personally would buy one if I could. But if I'm not allowed to get parts for it and work on it then its not a viable vehicle to me. I can't be beholden on whatever schedule the service department has or how fast they can get parts. Which sounds like not very fast.

skybrian 7y ago

Can't read the article but I'm thinking maybe they don't need to worry about convertible bonds anymore?

ibic 7y ago

Believe people are betting on its future. (Shanghai Mega-Factory seems doing pretty smoothly is probably one of the factor as well)

martythemaniak 7y ago

For a while TSLA had an absurd amount of short positions against it, IIRC something like an order of magnitude more than other companies. Perhaps we are seeing a short squeeze? I'd love to see data (and interpretation) on how this has changed.

klhiouyert98 7y ago
You can't fight meme magic. Old skool investors don't understand this yet. They see Elon smoking pot and they short. They see him dancing, they short again. They see his bumbling presentation skills and smashed CyberTruck windows, have a laugh and put one more billion against him. And then they open his twitter and you can imagine what they do when they see him posting absolute units of a sheep... https://fortune.com/2020/01/10/elon-musk-tesla-stock-short-sellers/ https://fortune.com/2020/01/10/elon-musk-tesla-stock-short-s...
- rjkennedy98 7y ago
  I feel this is a very small part of it. There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. And it could go on and on. Tesla, lets face it, is a cult stock. If you believe in the valuation, that's fine, but there have been plenty of bubbles over the years and especially recently (bitcoin and weedstocks come to mind), and Tesla would not be the first item driven to loft valuations based on unrealistic expectations.
  - klhiouyert98 7y ago
    I think the recent bump is because (some) investors are starting to understand that CyberTruck will not be a flop as widely predicted on it's launch. Again, meme-magic. If the CyberTruck was unveiled by BMW or Ford, the response would have been much more muted.
  - jsight 7y ago
    > There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. The problem is that those issues are exaggerated for Tesla and understated for other makes. This leads to weird volatility with Tesla, IMO, and I think this latest exaggerated surge to a high valuation is a part of that. Execution problems? You mean like the delayed VW ID.3? These problems happen all the time. Reliability issues... hmm Ford had major transmission problems on the Focus, Honda had transmission problems on the Accord a few years back and Nissan has struggled with CVT issues for years. But these don't make the press all that much, because they are boring. But Cybertrucks and an occasional battery fire? Those are front page news, and each creates wild exaggerated swings. Overall the extra attention helps Tesla, of course.

brenden2 7y ago

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style of Teslas very much. The lack something, and the style has a cheapness to it. With that said, TSLA has been helping my portfolio, so I appreciate that.

voxic11 7y ago
Being 100% electric is a pretty huge advantage, I wouldn't underestimate it. While I don't own a Tesla myself I have only heard good things from people who do.
tyfon 7y ago
I've had a model X long range raven for six months and it's fantastic. When I bought it I was seriously considering e-tron but it doesn't stack up in features (both inside and in the drive train / battery). The panels might be a mm off some places but there is not a squeak from it when driving and it's very comfortable. Personally it will take a lot to persuade me to buy another brand in the future. Edit: forgot about the supercharger network as it's just so natural. That alone makes it worth every penny.
lm28469 7y ago
As far as I can tell teslas are good cars, but more important than that they are status symbols.
slap_shot 7y ago
I don't own a Tesla but listen to a lot of podcasts that feature car enthusiasts. The reviews are pretty positive across the board. Regarding the cheapness, people almost universally agree the interiors feel cheap at the price you're paying. I sat in one recently and have to agree.
pikklemonster 7y ago
Owner of a 3 (performance, all options) built in July 2018. I was also nervous about build quality. My personal experience has been pretty great, however. Only a minor issue which the mobile repair truck came out and fixed in my company's parking lot. I didn't even have to go to a service center. Style is all subjective however there is a real minimalist chic to the 3 interior which I have come to love. In my wife's Merc (similar price to what I paid in 2018) things just feel "cluttered." To each it's own, though. Zero regrets and would buy again!

swarnie_ 7y ago

How i would love more then anything to short this company and retire in my mid-30s. The price just seems completely irrational to me especially in the auto market. E: I forgot this place was full of Space Jesus' fan boys...

oliverx0 7y ago

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profits, and they think Tesla's e-cars are the future.” I still don’t get it. You may think it’s the future, but to justify such a valuation over all other car companies which have been operating for years, and who can compete with Tesla, it seems a little extreme IMO. EDIT: after reading some comments it seems my conclusions might be inaccurate. All I wanted to point out was that the numbers were shocking at first sight.

awayfromhomenow 7y ago
Everything with humans has a social component. This is a social valuation of Tesla that has nothing to do with the current value of the company. I like Tesla, and hope we go all electric soon, but this is a premature overvaluing of the company (in my opinion).
bryanlarsen 7y ago
If you google "ford enterprise value" and "tesla enterprise value" you get values of 156B and 86B, respectively. Stockholders are not the only people who have claims on the liquidation value and future profits of a company. Bondholders and pensioners do as well. Market cap != valuation.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- kbutler 7y ago
  Right, those other claim holders represent reductions in the value of the company. If I borrow $300 billion (heh) and call myself a car company, that doesn't make me a more valuable company than Ford and Tesla combined - my net worth hasn't changed. Market cap == (perceived) value. Enterprise value is the COST TO PURCHASE the company, if I'm considering buying it. Like buying a used car and assuming payments: enterprise value (real cost) = purchase price + loan balance - coins under the seats Market cap is the cash I have to pay up-front Debt is the new debt I will have to pay when I own it. Cash-on-hand is the cash I get back when I buy it

josephdviviano 7y ago

https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-reinhart-e.pdf https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-r...

sabujp 7y ago

opening up business in china does a funny thing to a stock, wall street loves china

hogFeast 7y ago
Er no. It was the fact that the govt gave the Tusk ~$2bn of free money (and when the money was running out i.e. it really changed the narrative around the stock).

Diederich 7y ago

I've been a big Tesla fan for a while now. Certainly a big part of me is happy, perhaps even a bit smug, to see the share price so high. Even though I'm pretty sure electric vehicles are the future, and that Tesla has, at a minimum, brought that future closer to the now, I still think its share price is borderline insane, and, in the end, doesn't serve the company or the vision as well as a more moderate, stable price. I also acknowledge that its CEO has not only not taken reasonable steps to 'calm things down', but has done the opposite. Having said all that, I could be wrong, and perhaps Tesla's sales are substantially driven by all of this crazy energy, positive and negative.

aj7 7y ago

The correction will be precipitous. There is no reason to believe that even at the 1M vehicle level, they can be so profitable, when engaged with direct competition with other experienced producers, to justify such a market capitalization. The same cost issues will affect all companies, and I believe some Tesla technical advantages will erode.

JKCalhoun 7y ago
Agree. Their customers are those who are making bank on the bull market run we've been riding. If the market should fall, Tesla will fall hardest.
- oiasdjfoiasd 7y ago
  lol. some people will never learn.
Robotbeat 7y ago
I think the reason why Tesla is valued highly is that they won't stop growing at 1M vehicle production rate. (Whereas GM and others like it are stagnating or even declining in vehicle production: https://www.statista.com/statistics/225326/amount-of-cars-sold-by-general-motors-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/225326/amount-of-cars-so... ) They're selling mostly cars in their home market which is dominated by trucks and crossovers. They have a mass market crossover coming to market this year and a truck soon after. Overseas, they just built their first new factory in the biggest EV market in the world (China) that seems to already be doing well, and they're already starting to clear land on their European factory (whose market ought to be bigger than the North American market as well). The wild card is climate action. If the world has to severely cut back on fossil fuels, electric vehicles will be enormous, and Tesla's are the most compelling by a large margin, in spite of several attempts by large carmakers. There's also the storage market, the solar roof market (granted, mostly a California thing for now for Tesla), grid storage market (fairly large and likely to get much larger if climate action becomes critical), and the Semi truck (which is MUCH more compelling than other electric trucks, by an even larger margin than, say, the X is versus the e-tron). So I think long-term they have a decent chance of producing millions of vehicles and with significant revenue from non-passenger-vehicles like grid storage and long-haul trucking. If there's a 50:50 chance of global climate mobilization, that's a 50:50 chance of market conditions basically perfect for Tesla... and even without that (as in right now), they seem to be capable of being marginally profitable and still growing. So the upside is high and the downside is low. I haven't mentioned autopilot or self-driving because I think the case for Tesla's value is strong without that more questionable argument. I hold no individual stock.

samsonradu 7y ago

Just to provide some context, most indexes and large tech companies are at an all-time-high. It’s not just Tesla ‘doing great’.

chasd00 7y ago
that's a good point. At the moment, it's kind of hard for a tech stock symbol to not do great.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  Apart from IBM.
ecwilson 7y ago
Apple is up 100% in the last year for no good reason.
- Slartie 7y ago
  Apple is up 100% because it's kind of the safe haven among tech companies. It actually has the earnings to justify its market value even when using conventional P/E ratio evaluations. This means that if the current oversupply of "fantasy" in the stock markets, especially the tech markets, should ever run out, Apple will most likely be much less affected than most other companies. Lots of tech-interested investors realized this and decided to take some of the gains made with more risky bets into this "safe haven", because this lets them continue to invest in a tech company at least. And that's why the stock is up regardless of any new groundbreaking product from Apple.
  - samsonradu 7y ago
    A luxury product company becoming a safe haven pretty much speaks for itself on how distorted things are.
tempsy 7y ago
Uh Tesla was $180 six months ago. That's a 185% gain. Far more than the S&P. Few large cap companies have gained that much in such a short amount of time. Don't rain on the Tesla parade. Or discount the price movement as "in line".

jansan 7y ago

Anyone remember Volkswagen shares at 1000€ in October 2008? This was a textbook example of a shortsqueeze. One German billionaire saw that the share value was at a ridiculous high level, so he shorted it. He was correct, but too early, so he lost all his money and committed suicide. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/ https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day...

chasd00 7y ago
"markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
- jansan 7y ago
  That's what I told a friend last summer when he talked about Tesla being the perfect short opportunity. Tesla stock is an extremely hot iron. You can tell by the huge daily swings that it is being played in some way, and as an amateur you are usually the one paying the pros in these scenarios.

nif2ee 7y ago

As is the case with Apple, Tesla is a cult and obviously Musk learned from Steve Jobs that cults beat facts, cults create empires and make bad as equal as good and sane people can do nothing about it. That's how the great empires and religions were built in the old days and that's how "great" companies are being built today.

rcMgD2BwE72F 7y ago
Or: it's just the only company that makes a compelling product line for the biggest global market (energy and auto) while the rest of the industry keep selling fossil fuel and internal combustion engines, both of which are destroying our habitat an ever faster pace. The cult is believing we can keep marketing ICE cars and pumping CO2 in the atmosphere and still expect to make money. https://i.redd.it/xobkagxotot01.jpg https://i.redd.it/xobkagxotot01.jpg The market cap of TSLA remains tiny compared to trillions $ of stranded assets of the oil and ICE industry.

ecwilson 7y ago

Current valuations, Tesla and Apple among the most prominent, are so far disconnected from reality that it echoes the dot com bubble. But this time, the cause is not dot com mania -- but buybacks, driven by reckless financial policy. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENmRB6aVAAEziTn?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENmRB6aVAAEziTn?format=jpg&name=...

deleted 7y ago

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dangus 7y ago

Technology sharing is very important to the modern car industry. Cars are incredibly complicated and if you follow news in the industry, in many cases brands will make technology sharing agreements so that they aren’t duplicating efforts. That’s where Tesla is well-positioned for the future compared to Ford and GM. They have a whole platform and a battery manufacturing facility where other car brands may become Tesla customers in the future. Disregarding things like build quality or fit and finish, my understanding is that Tesla’s battery platform and powertrain is the industry leader. If investors think that gas cars will essentially be irrelevant 20 years, I could see why Tesla is so valuable.

rjkennedy98 7y ago
The irony is that its actually not that well positioned in autonomous driving, which could be the only thing that could really driving the incredibly valuations it has now. GM, for instance, by most reports is significantly ahead of Telsa.

cs702 7y ago

I have an inkling that Tesla has now gained long-term credibility, and we're on the cusp of seeing much broader adoption by a mass of non-early adopters -- people who will evaluate buying a Tesla the same way they would evaluate any other brand, based on boring criteria like long-term quality, day-to-day reliability, service convenience, overall reputation, interior features, exterior design, and resale value. The stock market appears to be pricing this scenario. Conversely, the worst-case scenario for Tesla as a business, at this juncture, may be that it finds itself unable to remain financially sustainable over time... and ends up getting acquired by another car marker salivating over the prospects of getting its hands on the company's technology and infrastructure. PS. I write this as someone who has purchased and owned multiple luxury European vehicles (mainly BMW and Mercedes) for the past 20+ years; for the first time, I'm seriously considering switching over to a Tesla when I replace my current vehicle.

SnowingXIV 7y ago

How close are they to figuring out how to handle holding a battery charge in colder temperatures? A few owners around here I've spoken with have said they are experiencing nearly half the mileage this winter season and it's been a struggle for longer daily commutes. They also need to preheat the battery and some have resorted to using another vehicle. Been on the fence for a while and since we operate with one car that would troublesome.

ilikehurdles 7y ago
This is a big reason I avoided a Tesla this time around. If you live in Colorado and ski, you'll not only often be parking your car in extremely cold temperatures overnight, but also know that blockages on I-70 during sub-freezing temperatures are relatively common, and those blockages can add anywhere from half an hour to 6 hours to a commute. There's already a high enough risk that the battery range will be reduced in that weather, that my destination won't have a fast-charger, and that I won't be able to fully charge the vehicle overnight; but, the risk of me being unable to start the car on the highway in that weather were too much for it to be a useful option. To be fair, Tesla is much more of a viable to me than any other EV, but as someone who works from home and only uses their car for excursions rather than daily commuting, it's not for me.

JoshTko 7y ago

I wonder what NYU prof Scott Galloway thinks of this given his Oct 2019 prediction that Tesla will lose 80% of its value.

cagenut 7y ago
he's like a modern social-media-native version of jim cramer

tempsy 7y ago

Really incredible. I remember when it was trading at $18.

rhacker 7y ago

While this is great for a variety of reasons... I'm lamenting on the cybrtrck. Initially after the release I was kinda excited. Lately I have been wishing it just looked like a regular truck and did things that regular trucks can do - especially since I'm big on RVs: Cab over (fuck out of luck there). Fifth wheel? (Bed is probably not standard and probably no one will have the knowledge of putting in the rails or a puck system. In other words we're looking at best travel trailers. I'm also sceptical they're going to the enough standard tow package equipment. I just have this feeling that no one that works at Tesla owns trucks and tows things. (And when I say no one, I just feel like if 10% of the staff owns a dually that's not enough). If they don't put up a standard compete like Rivian, they're going to lose HUGE in this category. One last secondary gripe here - they keep saying it has more utility than a regular truck but here I am pointing out all the things it can't do that a typical truck can. Beyond that, can you even ATTACH a snow plow?

cagenut 7y ago
thats not how you ship a v1 what is it about cars that make all software engineers turn into junior product managers.
- rhacker 7y ago
  It would seem that all the other EV pickup startups in this space are thinking about what regular trucks do first.

sajithdilshan 7y ago

My gut feeling is that this is a short spike because of all the people who wants to take a bite at rising stock price. At some point people will realize that this is a ridiculous amount of money for a share of a company which is yet to prove that the company is massively profitable. When the price collapse, it will be a steep down curve.

ASalazarMX 7y ago
My take as well. At the end of 2019 the financial spam changed from "TESLA IS SINKING! SELL!" to "TESLA IS AWESOME! BUY!".

csomar 7y ago

Here is another possibility: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CCMP:IND https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CCMP:IND The whole market was up 25-30% (Nasdaq). Now, as a trader, you know that there are companies that follow the market return, or accentuate it (from both directions). TSLA being a tech company meant that you got better returns (50%) which are not too far from the Nasdaq returns. Apple returns were even crazier for a company its size: +100%! tl;dr: We are in a bull-market.

tempsy 7y ago

Does anyone else feel like HN is somewhat ironically a highly risk adverse community? (I say ironically because you'd think a community of those working in new tech would be more risk seeking than your average person) Seems like every time an individual stock is brought up there's 10 people claiming you're "gambling" with a disproportional amount of risk if you do anything but buy the index for every person that dares buy a company stock.

NicoJuicy 7y ago

I don't think anyone has a sustainable business model right now for the root cause ( climate change). Although Tesla seems to be the best option right now. I think the future will be a combination of electric bikes and greatly improved public transportation + reduced cost price. An electric car is still too resource heavy too make. I know a lot of people here who won't agree with me. But I'm pretty sure that they don't live in the Netherlands or Belgium ( where a lot of people cycle) or that this alternative is not viable there ( too cold or too wide). I also didn't say it was a perfect solution for all ( ev. The edge cases I gave here) and that people will easily adjust when they don't have the habit of cycling ( eg. No adjusted roads)

auiya 7y ago

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesla. Tesla has one single SUV offering, and sales of that SUV are dismal. They just teased a pickup truck release with their 'cybertruck' product, but the design was purposely off-putting, and it only served to make a mockery of the market segment. So with one SUV that doesn't sell, and a parody of what is currently the highest selling platform in the US, I'm not sure why anyone speculates Tesla is in a place of upward trajectory. I don't buy the argument that other car companies can't/won't pivot to counter either. Porsche reverse engineered one of their Model S vehicles, admitted it was quite well-constructed, and then countered with the Taycan (by all reviews a better car) a mere 3-4 years later. I'm glad a company like Tesla exists to force the market to the EV concept, but most people will buy an EV when they know it's supported by a long established and trusted automaker like Toyota, Ford, Chevy, or Honda. Tesla then exists as a proof-of-concept model for the bigger players to follow, not as a displacement. It should also be noted, many motor companies are also investing quite a bit of money into alternative fuels like synthetic petrol and hydrogen, and don't want to rely on an energy source which is primarily derived from conflict zones. They aren't 100% sold yet that the EV platform is indeed the way forward.

sergiosgc 7y ago
Porsche planned to build 30k to 50k Taycans. It is a market test by Porsche, not a real competitor to the model S.
- auiya 7y ago
  That's roughly four times the number of 911's they sell every year, and they're all back ordered. Sounds like a successful test to me. How many Tesla Model S's are sold each year?
cdkee 7y ago
People have been saying this for years. However, none of the other players have built a compelling product with widespread appeal or adoption. The E-Tron? iPace? Taycan? All have been more or less dead on arrival from an adoption and sales standpoint. Honda announced recently that they will be focusing on hybrid technology, not full electric. Toyota is backing their Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology. GM has the Bolt, a single full-electric offering. The Model 3 doesn't really have any meaningful competition at the moment IMO. Tesla has forced the industry to change and from where I'm standing no competing product has managed to holistically match the value proposition Tesla brings.

olivermarks 7y ago

California law as of Jan 1 requires all new houses to have solar panels, EV charging port, no natural gas allowed. This 100% electric future being forced is attractive to Wall Street as it forces change, despite adding ~300k to the house price. Wall Street bares no relation to the street where cars are powered by gasoline or diesel with few exceptions. It takes 75 minutes to charge a Tesla EV, much longer in cold climates (I have a Tesla owning acquaintance in Denver who confirms this). We are n a giant stock market bubble. Tesla is a good example if this aspirational earnings exuberance IMO

legulere 7y ago
At least in Germany it costs more like 15k for the roof of a big house.
- xsmasher 7y ago
  300k is too much; 16k can cover half of your roof with panels, even in the SF Bay Area.
  - olivermarks 7y ago
    I was told this by a contractor friend in Ukiah California this weekend, he is now building these 2020 units and said TCI for abiding by the new laws was 300k on price of house to buyer
tachyonbeam 7y ago
There is no way this adds 300K to the price of a house, and it does not take 75 minutes to charge a Tesla, more like 15-30 minutes at a supercharger depending on your state of charge. Stop the FUD.
- olivermarks 7y ago
  Supercharger technology Tesla logo at Supercharger station Tesla supercharging stations charge with up to 150 kW of power distributed between two cars with a maximum of 150[13][14] kW per car, depending on version.[15][6][16] They take about 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100% on the original 85 kWh Model S. The charging stations provide high-power direct-current (DC) charging power directly to the battery, bypassing the internal charging power supply.[1] The next version of Supercharging was expected to charge with more than 350 kW.[17][18] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger

mrnobody_67 7y ago

Plainsite recently published a 100-page report summarizing all the key findings from the tesla short or $TESLAQ community... some of the allegations around corporate governance, self-dealing, and outright lies are pretty damning if true: https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tesla.html https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tesla.html Not endorsing their findings, merely saying it's an interesting read to understand the other side. Its allegations are well referenced with sources.

dwags 7y ago

I sold my car and now drive one of those Zebra mopeds in SD. Next time I buy a car, it will be electric.

birdyrooster 7y ago

The comments here seem to be lacking one perspective: Global climate change is going to force governments to ban the sale of internal combustion engines for consumer use. The markets are pricing in the expected regulations, which is why Tesla is getting such a premium since they are the most mature in the coming regulatory environment.

zcw100 7y ago

Enron looked great, right before it didn't. House prices will only continue to rise. All it takes is one drop of blood. Maybe that will be Tesla's fate, maybe it won't but it's naive to think that can't happen.

rich_sasha 7y ago

I think this highlights the value of the brand, the tangible counterpart of “hype”. What the sceptics call starry-eyed fundamentalism is a valuable revenue stream, for whatever reason. Tesla successfully created a story of being the only cool kid in a room full of dinosaurs. All other points good too, but didn’t see this mentioned.

gdubs 7y ago

A lot comes down to whether the market views Tesla as a car company, or a technology company. The pessimistic view is that they’re a car company and the valuation makes no sense compared to GM, Toyota, or VW. The optimistic view is that they’re a technology company that — if they manage to stay alive — will produce value from both their core offering and the edges of their business, much the way Amazon has with AWS, or Apple is doing in Services. Personally, I own a nominal number of shares and root for their success. But at the end of the day, it’s a Random Walk on Wall Street and predictions (good or bad) are largely speculation.