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Xi's in a trap. The nationalist fervor that the CCP has whipped up for decades, coupled with the demonization of the HK protestors by Chinese media and Xi's 'no

Xi's in a trap. The nationalist fervor that the CCP has whipped up for decades, coupled with the demonization of the HK protestors by Chinese media and Xi's 'no compromise' stance, makes it impossible for him to lighten up -- and the protests to de-escalate -- without him seeming weak. The HK protestors/population at this point are so angry and the radical wing so large, that they won't willingly de-escalate. Even if Lam leaves the demonstrations will continue. This sets up the stage for atrocities and more international condemnation. Already on the international front, China is in trouble. The pro-China KMT party in Taiwan may suffer greatly in the next election because of what's going on in HK now (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3037040/taiwan-2020-election-race-influence-mainland-based-voters-may https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3037040/tai...), making China's aggressive demands for forced unification even more unlikely in the medium term. This week, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a HK rights bill (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-usa/us-senate-passes-hk-rights-bill-backing-protesters-angers-beijing-idUSKBN1XT2VR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-usa/us-...) that, if it becomes law, will put China through an annual review, which will further erode the Sino-U.S. relationship for years to come. There have been calls for a boycott of the 2022 Olympics in Beijing which seems fringey now, but won't be if China sends in the troops. There's also the internal question. Ordinary people in China are getting censored news, but some of the raw information about what's going on is getting through via social media. What does this mean for sentiment in Cantonese speaking areas of southern China, or for areas of China where provincial officials are resented for unjust or unfair treatment of citizens?

FussyZeus 7y ago
The Nationalist trap is not isolated to China. Indeed Trump is flirting with the same issues, as is Kim Jong Un, as is Bolsanaro, as is Duterte, as is Erdogan. All over the world strongman nationalists are gaining power and simultaneously dooming us to the conflicts of the older generations. It's depressing as shit that so many countries are regressing right now when we should be more united than ever. China may be the most flagrant (debatable) but they are far from the only instance, and the problems that are haunting Xi now will haunt all of these leaders eventually. Some already are feeling it.
- ThisIsBrilliant 7y ago
  I was waiting for the orange man bad post. Do you know who built the cages for children? Do you know who banned the exact same countries for travel that Trump did? Do you know who arrested 8 whistleblowers? Do you know who killed the first US citizen without hearing? Newsflash, it wasn't the orange man.
  - FussyZeus 7y ago
    I didn't comment on his policies, I commented on the style of politician he is. Obama was no angel, far from it, but he also wasn't elected as a populist. Trump was.
  - jefurii 7y ago
    Yes and I felt betrayed by Obama when he did those things. I criticize them both.
  - dang 7y ago
    Please don't take HN threads further into political flamewar or use HN primarily for political battle. We ban accounts that do that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - ThisIsBrilliant 7y ago
      I know you very well, you specifically only target pro-trump posters. You have NEVER ever said anything to anti-trump baiters.
      - dang 7y ago
        You must have missed all of those! Here's one from yesterday: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21573934 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21573934 Also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21430000 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21430000 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21288038 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21288038 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20929962 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20929962 ...and so on.
spacehunt 7y ago
Social media in China is also heavily censored and manipulated. There are quite a few in mainland China who understands what's going on here in Hong Kong, but most buy into the state propaganda and wants us exterminated for being "separatists" and "traitors of the Chinese race."
- baby 7y ago
  There’s a lot of mainland people in the US who think the western medias are all biased and that they are helping HK to separate from China.
  - simlevesque 7y ago
    > There’s a lot of mainland people in the US who think the western medias are all biased Isn't it ? I mean, I don't respect China much but this is not a false statement.
    - nailer 7y ago
      Personally I'm biased in favour of rights. If HK ruled over China I'd be in favour of Chinese independence. I want Beijing to have universal suffrage just as much as I want the Cantonese to.
      - perennate 7y ago
        Most protesters don't want HK independence, they simply want universal suffrage which was guaranteed by the CCP in the 1997 joint declaration. But the CCP has failed their promise and almost half of the seats in the HK legislature are chosen by "functional constituencies" that do not represent the people. Of course the CCP has labeled these people as "separatists" to attract domestic hatred towards the protesters, and spreads propaganda in China that falsely represents their demands. At least SCMP still gives a truthful view: https://yp.scmp.com/hongkongprotests5demands https://yp.scmp.com/hongkongprotests5demands
        7y ago
camgunz 7y ago
> Xi's in a trap. The nationalist fervor that the CCP has whipped up for decades, coupled with the demonization of the HK protestors by Chinese media and Xi's 'no compromise' stance, makes it impossible for him to lighten up -- and the protests to de-escalate -- without him seeming weak. Yeah I don't have any sympathy for him or for the CCP. Appealing to nationalist sentiment to amass political power is making a deal with the devil, and we know how that goes. Let's just hope the US doesn't need to learn this lesson as well. The sad fact is that when these kinds of authoritarian regimes rise to power, it takes years of abhorrent violence to tear them down. The West naively thought the "free market" would liberalize China (and Russia) and we were very wrong. We're reaping the consequences of that policy mistake on a global scale. It's the rule of law and human rights that are liberalizing (which careful readers will realize is a tautology). The West needs to stop legitimizing and funding regimes that don't respect these fundamental ideas, and here I'm thinking of China, but also other totalitarian regimes like Saudi Arabia. Furthermore we need to build alliances against these regimes across the world.
- treebeard901 7y ago
  > The West naively thought the "free market" would liberalize China (and Russia) and we were very wrong. We have all heard this idea thrown around now for some time. It’s only in the last few years it seems people have accepted that it wasn’t going to work. In the context of the trade war and everything lately, I’ve really been thinking about this theory. On one hand, we know the current reality. An ascendant authoritarian country looking to return to great power status. We have a trade war as a result of years of toxic codependency. It remains to be seen how far the trade war goes and wether or not it is the catalyst for some future war. Now on the other hand, what direction would China have gone had Nixon not gone to China to open up trade negotiations in the 70s. It’s impossible to know, but I can imagine quite a number of scenarios that are far worse than a trade war with China. Imagine a North Korea type situation where the country is much larger and influential and does not have such a co dependent trading relationship with the United States. Is that really a better outcome? Also important noting that China already had nukes when they began joining international trade in the 70s. The situation could’ve been much worse.
Aperocky 7y ago
Both the west and China omit information when reporting about HK. China highlights protester violence, the west talk about police. The only difference is that west is doing it voluntarily. If you step back and think about it, if this protest were to happen in the US, with subways burned, shops destroyed, road blocked, for 6 months. What is going to happen? Compare this hypothetical scenario with what happened in Hong Kong. Where’s the gap? In 2019 we’ve been accustomed to export thinking to other people and import outrage from the cheapest source. And it doesn’t take a dictatorial government to push a narrative.
- zzzcpan 7y ago
  > China highlights protester violence, the west talk about police. The only difference is that west is doing it voluntarily. Both in the US and in China people work in media voluntarily. In neither case they have freedom to publish anything they want, they have to push specific narratives coming from the top. In China narratives come directly from the government, in the US indirectly through the system of "manufacturing consent".
  - perennate 7y ago
    China Daily has an office in NYC [1], and publishes a US edition of their newspaper. This is a newspaper directly owned by the CCP. And you can pick up a copy of the regular China Daily in many cities. Is the uncensored New York Times available in China? I think not. Trying to equate the two is ridiculous. No one is going to buy your argument that "manufacturing consent" means that the level of freedom of speech is the same in the US and China. It's just completely wrong. [1] http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2011-04/13/content_12319455.htm http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2011-04/13/content_12319455.htm When the police come in and arrest everyone working for the China Daily in NYC and send them to jail and physically torture them like the CCP did to Simon Cheng or harvest their organs like the CCP did to Falun Gong followers, then you can make your argument. And many people in the US will fight just as hard for the rights of China Daily US Edition as they fight for freedom of speech and universal suffrage in Hong Kong.
- perennate 7y ago
throwawayhhakdl 7y ago
I think your comment about the Olympics is very insightful and something I had not considered. It’s a shame they’re not a year sooner.

FussyZeus 7y ago

The Nationalist trap is not isolated to China. Indeed Trump is flirting with the same issues, as is Kim Jong Un, as is Bolsanaro, as is Duterte, as is Erdogan. All over the world strongman nationalists are gaining power and simultaneously dooming us to the conflicts of the older generations. It's depressing as shit that so many countries are regressing right now when we should be more united than ever. China may be the most flagrant (debatable) but they are far from the only instance, and the problems that are haunting Xi now will haunt all of these leaders eventually. Some already are feeling it.

ThisIsBrilliant 7y ago
I was waiting for the orange man bad post. Do you know who built the cages for children? Do you know who banned the exact same countries for travel that Trump did? Do you know who arrested 8 whistleblowers? Do you know who killed the first US citizen without hearing? Newsflash, it wasn't the orange man.
- FussyZeus 7y ago
  I didn't comment on his policies, I commented on the style of politician he is. Obama was no angel, far from it, but he also wasn't elected as a populist. Trump was.
- jefurii 7y ago
  Yes and I felt betrayed by Obama when he did those things. I criticize them both.
- dang 7y ago
  Please don't take HN threads further into political flamewar or use HN primarily for political battle. We ban accounts that do that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - ThisIsBrilliant 7y ago
    I know you very well, you specifically only target pro-trump posters. You have NEVER ever said anything to anti-trump baiters.
    - dang 7y ago
      You must have missed all of those! Here's one from yesterday: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21573934 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21573934 Also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21430000 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21430000 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21288038 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21288038 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20929962 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20929962 ...and so on.

spacehunt 7y ago

Social media in China is also heavily censored and manipulated. There are quite a few in mainland China who understands what's going on here in Hong Kong, but most buy into the state propaganda and wants us exterminated for being "separatists" and "traitors of the Chinese race."

baby 7y ago
There’s a lot of mainland people in the US who think the western medias are all biased and that they are helping HK to separate from China.
- simlevesque 7y ago
  > There’s a lot of mainland people in the US who think the western medias are all biased Isn't it ? I mean, I don't respect China much but this is not a false statement.
  - nailer 7y ago
    Personally I'm biased in favour of rights. If HK ruled over China I'd be in favour of Chinese independence. I want Beijing to have universal suffrage just as much as I want the Cantonese to.
    - perennate 7y ago
      Most protesters don't want HK independence, they simply want universal suffrage which was guaranteed by the CCP in the 1997 joint declaration. But the CCP has failed their promise and almost half of the seats in the HK legislature are chosen by "functional constituencies" that do not represent the people. Of course the CCP has labeled these people as "separatists" to attract domestic hatred towards the protesters, and spreads propaganda in China that falsely represents their demands. At least SCMP still gives a truthful view: https://yp.scmp.com/hongkongprotests5demands https://yp.scmp.com/hongkongprotests5demands
      - 7y ago

camgunz 7y ago

> Xi's in a trap. The nationalist fervor that the CCP has whipped up for decades, coupled with the demonization of the HK protestors by Chinese media and Xi's 'no compromise' stance, makes it impossible for him to lighten up -- and the protests to de-escalate -- without him seeming weak. Yeah I don't have any sympathy for him or for the CCP. Appealing to nationalist sentiment to amass political power is making a deal with the devil, and we know how that goes. Let's just hope the US doesn't need to learn this lesson as well. The sad fact is that when these kinds of authoritarian regimes rise to power, it takes years of abhorrent violence to tear them down. The West naively thought the "free market" would liberalize China (and Russia) and we were very wrong. We're reaping the consequences of that policy mistake on a global scale. It's the rule of law and human rights that are liberalizing (which careful readers will realize is a tautology). The West needs to stop legitimizing and funding regimes that don't respect these fundamental ideas, and here I'm thinking of China, but also other totalitarian regimes like Saudi Arabia. Furthermore we need to build alliances against these regimes across the world.

treebeard901 7y ago
> The West naively thought the "free market" would liberalize China (and Russia) and we were very wrong. We have all heard this idea thrown around now for some time. It’s only in the last few years it seems people have accepted that it wasn’t going to work. In the context of the trade war and everything lately, I’ve really been thinking about this theory. On one hand, we know the current reality. An ascendant authoritarian country looking to return to great power status. We have a trade war as a result of years of toxic codependency. It remains to be seen how far the trade war goes and wether or not it is the catalyst for some future war. Now on the other hand, what direction would China have gone had Nixon not gone to China to open up trade negotiations in the 70s. It’s impossible to know, but I can imagine quite a number of scenarios that are far worse than a trade war with China. Imagine a North Korea type situation where the country is much larger and influential and does not have such a co dependent trading relationship with the United States. Is that really a better outcome? Also important noting that China already had nukes when they began joining international trade in the 70s. The situation could’ve been much worse.

Aperocky 7y ago

Both the west and China omit information when reporting about HK. China highlights protester violence, the west talk about police. The only difference is that west is doing it voluntarily. If you step back and think about it, if this protest were to happen in the US, with subways burned, shops destroyed, road blocked, for 6 months. What is going to happen? Compare this hypothetical scenario with what happened in Hong Kong. Where’s the gap? In 2019 we’ve been accustomed to export thinking to other people and import outrage from the cheapest source. And it doesn’t take a dictatorial government to push a narrative.

zzzcpan 7y ago
> China highlights protester violence, the west talk about police. The only difference is that west is doing it voluntarily. Both in the US and in China people work in media voluntarily. In neither case they have freedom to publish anything they want, they have to push specific narratives coming from the top. In China narratives come directly from the government, in the US indirectly through the system of "manufacturing consent".
- perennate 7y ago
  China Daily has an office in NYC [1], and publishes a US edition of their newspaper. This is a newspaper directly owned by the CCP. And you can pick up a copy of the regular China Daily in many cities. Is the uncensored New York Times available in China? I think not. Trying to equate the two is ridiculous. No one is going to buy your argument that "manufacturing consent" means that the level of freedom of speech is the same in the US and China. It's just completely wrong. [1] http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2011-04/13/content_12319455.htm http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2011-04/13/content_12319455.htm When the police come in and arrest everyone working for the China Daily in NYC and send them to jail and physically torture them like the CCP did to Simon Cheng or harvest their organs like the CCP did to Falun Gong followers, then you can make your argument. And many people in the US will fight just as hard for the rights of China Daily US Edition as they fight for freedom of speech and universal suffrage in Hong Kong.
perennate 7y ago

throwawayhhakdl 7y ago

I think your comment about the Olympics is very insightful and something I had not considered. It’s a shame they’re not a year sooner.