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U.S. to leave global postal union next month barring last-minute action
- pravda 7y agoGet your Aliexpress and Banggood orders in ASAP!
- monksy 7y agoWhatever you do, do not order from gearbest. (See r/gearbest for the horror stories)
- NikolaeVarius 7y agoIts 50/50 in my experience..
- Mountain_Skies 7y agoWonder if they get flagged for fraud or charge backs a lot. I ordered an item from them about a year ago. The second I hit the submit button on the order form, my phone rang (it was somewhat creepy how quick the phone call came). It was my bank checking to make sure it was a valid transaction. I've never had them call me to verify a transaction before. This was from an automated system but I received a follow up call the next day from a human double checking that it was a valid transaction. It was for maybe about $50 and everything went smoothly but it is interesting that they were instantly tagged for a fraud alert.
- monksy 7y agoThey get chargebacks a lot because they don't ship in a reasonable amount of time. See the subreddit for other horror stories. You're much better at buying from a random Aliexpress seller. EDIT: You also see it with places like Eurorail pass. They often times don't deliver. I rarely ever get fraud alerts. Which is suprising (I'll outright buy a flight ticket out of the country in a different currency without notification to the CC).
- irrational 7y agoI've never shopped on these sites. What are people typically buying? Is there something I should be stocking up on?
- gnulinux 7y agoEvery electronics I ever tried to buy cheap from China (e.g. from dhgate.com) has been broken. I have literally never seen an electronics that is remotely close to working from this source. I do believe that you can get something if you're lucky; but even after reading reviews and seeing good ones I got USBs that are not working (I tried to buy them out of curiosity, I just spent $10 or something).
- pravda 7y agoOh gosh. Head over to banggood.com and see what you've been missing.
- mistermann 7y agoAre any such companies like this listed on a US stock exchange? I'm thinking this has got to hit some companies with serious risk to sales or profit?
- knd775 7y agoAlibaba is on NYSE as BABA (AliExpress is the internationally facing version of Alibaba/Taobao)
- ars 7y agoBasically every single thing you buy in a store, is also available, at around 1/10 the price, at these sites. The next time you need a kitchen gadget, tool, measuring cup, belt, socks, pencil. Anything. Buy it on aliexpress and save a ton, in exchange for very long shipping times, and you pretty much can't return anything (you can get refunds for defective stuff, but not for wrong size/color etc). And it's not just a Chinese clone of the item, it's the exact same item, with a different name printed on it.
- kevingadd 7y agoI wonder what this is going to do to US electronics/devices manufacturing. If companies were previously importing some/all of their components and then building the final product here, will they just move assembly & mfg overseas to only get dinged once instead of eating massive costs on the import of every component?
- kevin_b_er 7y agoNo, that hit has already been taken. The trump tariffs already added tariffs on the electronics components, hurting the US manufacturing of any electronics already.
- cr0sh 7y agoOnly for manufacturers and resellers, from what I read. If it's for domestic use and not resale, then you shouldn't have to pay the tariff to import the item. Problem is - once the tariffs on the electronic components and other similar items went into effect, Chinese vendors - even those selling to individuals - raised their prices. Still - it's cheaper for me as a hobbyist to buy these parts from China, than it is from anywhere else here in the United States. Sometimes, for certain parts, you can get it cheaper from Mouser or Digi-key, but that's really rare, and usually limited to fairly "new on the market" parts (those introduced in the last 10-15 years). But anything older (ie - PDIP 5 volt TTL/CMOS variant ICs - for instance), it's cheaper to go to China (usually, they aren't even available via major parts suppliers anyhow) - or if you're lucky, you can find it surplus domestically. So even if it now adds an extra $5.00 for shipping an epacket from China - the parts, components, modules, motors, whatever - are still going to be much, much cheaper than the USA version (in most cases, unobtanium anyhow). All these changes have done - at least with electronics - is make it more expensive for hobbyists; small manufacturers will get a break on the shipping (at least competition-wise - in theory - because they'll still be paying the same, maybe a little less - and China will be paying more), but they still have the tariffs working against them (because they can't buy their parts here in the USA cheaper than what they can get them for from China - even with tariffs and shipping costs). The only ones who might "win" here are larger manufacturers - but I'm not sure how many of those we really have (in the electronics realm - that is, who make Arduinos here in the USA besides maybe Adafruit and SparkFun?) - but I doubt even they will "win". I really think this is going to end up being a net overall loss for the USA, that it will do nothing to stimulate manufacturing, and that shipments from China will hardly slow at all. It's crazy in my view - it's like none of our lawmakers have stepped foot in Shenzhen, where there are litteral multi-story buildings where vendors sell nothing but LEDs, where if you need a particular screw purchased or specially made, you can walk a block or two and find a manufacturer and it can probably be pumped out by the end of the day. It is literally a city for hi-tech manufacturing, supply, design, tooling, you-name-it-you-can-get-it-there-and-cheap. A maker/hobbyist/hacker's fantasy dream 24/7 technology store city-sized. They can't seem to understand that if you wanted to have any hope of replicating what China is doing, you'd have to literally build something (with ports) the size of Los Angeles that does almost nothing but design and manufacture cutting edge technology and parts 24/7 - using everything from people who live in the factories to lights-out robotic systems. In other words, it ain't ever happening here - never.
- Svip 7y agoHave the USPS decided which UPU member they would route their international mail through?
- Sam_Harris 7y agoUncloseable popup obscures entire article - typical of HN posts.
- solotronics 7y agoGood! No longer will we be ripped off by funding shipping from China to the US with taxpayer money. I actually think it would be better to stay in the agreement with most countries but slap a "transport fee" or creatively name it, on all the things coming from China, and use that to pay for the shipping cost. It should be looked at on a country by country basis, where countries we export more than import to get to send for free.
- t-writescode 7y agoThe big problem with this theory is that building manufacturing in the United States will be expensive, and if the next president is going to undo this, then what’s the point of building it? It could be less expensive to weather through those 4 years. edit: could, not would
- solotronics 7y agoThis is a weekness in our current system that has been exploited. It's a strategic national security concern and is finally being treated as such. China has "Made in China 2025" we should do the same and it should be supported by whatever measures are necessary. The alternative is that CCP will take Americas place in regards to global geopolitics.
- Mountain_Skies 7y agoDo you know that the next president is going to undo this? If the bar for action is that someone might undo it in the future, why do anything?
- bluGill 7y agoYou have to make a decision given the information you have. You can chose to wait, but that is a decision. You will always have to choose again in the future based on new information, but often once you set a plan in motion you should continue even if though without the sunk costs of the past you wouldn't. I don't know who the next President will be. The current president could die in an hour. The current president could win or lose re-election. The current president could become a military dictator for life. The above applies to any president of any country (not just Trump). You have to decide what the risk of each is and prepare accordingly.
- AimForTheBushes 7y agoI'm not sure what the unintended consequences are but I believe this is the right move. It is completely unfair that it's cheaper to ship from China to the United States than it is to ship from Chicago to New York. It naturally puts American businesses at a disadvantage. There is always the argument of semantics of what makes a developing country a developing country, but I think being the second largest economy on Earth isn't afforded that label.
- ppeetteerr 7y agoAgreed. This loophole needed to be closed a long time ago. I hope other countries follow suit.
- solotronics 7y agoThey are obviously playing by a totally different set of rules than we were. This is starting to even the playing field a little bit which we must do or get totally overtaken by China.
- mytailorisrich 7y agoIf you look at how the world is currently "overtaken" by the USA then realise that China has about the same land resources but 4+ times the population, then the unescapable conclusion is that China is bound to absolutely overtake the USA and the world. India probably is, too.
- solotronics 7y agoI think there may be some parallels to draw here with the USSR. The CCP is another top down model that has some advantages and some disadvantages compared with western liberal democracy. Can China convince countries to align with its goals? If they can do this better than the US then they will win.
- mytailorisrich 7y agoThe USSR had a comparable (corrected: not small as I first wrote) population and a small economy compared to the USA's. Moreover their economy was highly disfunctional. It's a bit like all the fear mongering about Japan in the 80s. The hard truth is that Japan was way too small to be a threat. China, on the other hand, is much bigger than the USA. The fact that the USA are currently so much stronger than China is therefore the anomaly in a historical perspective.
- txru 7y agoTraffickers were using the UPU to ship Fentanyl into the US from China, because are almost zero inspections compared to private shipping companies. This action may still be a pretext in the trade war, but it seems like it could slow down the overdoses significantly, so I'm all for it. https://www.lawfareblog.com/withdrawal-universal-postal-union-guide-perplexed https://www.lawfareblog.com/withdrawal-universal-postal-unio...
- GhettoMaestro 7y agoChina has supposedly been "cracking down" on illicit Fentanyl production in their country, which of course is total crap. They are happy to see Americans harmed by such things. Fundamentally, their culture is morally bankrupt. They belong right next to Saudi Arabia on the world stage. Edit: Flag me all you want. You know it is true.
- dmix 7y agoI'm sure they could just as easily route it through Mexican cartel channels or other commercial vectors just as easily. At the end of the day it will never be economical to search more than even 1% package and port crate or non-commercial boat coming into the US shores. Those packages will still get through and millions of dollars of Fentynal can be hidden in small packages. The supply of drugs to America has never been seriously hampered for long by decades of advanced drug interdiction tactics.
- calimac 7y agoThe Chinese factories have used this to cheat the system and sell directly into US Consumers homes via Alibaba AliExpress epacket . The Chinese exploited a system designed to facilitate global exchange by using it to bypass customs, taxes, and enter markets below competition. The Ccp also subsidizes many of the exporters to further destroy competition. The Chinese have had a free ride since 1982 and they have no business in the preferred nation status at the world bank; three words - live organ harvesting. The Chinese human rights violations are here Doug. They cheat steal and harm humans. Their population is enslave by way of currency manipulation and non existent labor laws Non of this is worth buying cheap Chinese manufactured products How can the virtue justice warriors allow it? Discrimination?
- ropiwqefjnpoa 7y agoNo more 1 dollar 4 week shipping from Hong Kong?
- mfer 7y agoPlanet Money on NPR did an episode on the UPU and the impact on the US at https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/08/01/634737852/episode-857-the-postal-illuminati https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/08/01/634737852/epis... It's worth a listen to. I learned that it can be cheaper to ship things from China than across the street. In the episode the break down some elements of the UPU, where costs are, and who pays for things.
- mikl 7y agoThe current pricing system is nuts, the European nations should consider doing the same. In Denmark, sending a package within the country (a country the size of Maryland), is more expensive than getting one sent around the world from China.
- p1mrx 7y agoFor products that currently cost $1 to order from China, what will be the typical cost after this change?
- pravda 7y agoIt is a bit too early to say. :-) But inter-US rates for a 1oz to 4oz "letter package" are from $3.66 - $4.06. So if a Chinese company opened a US warehouse, that is what it would cost for inter-US shipping. If it is not too thick, you can send 'flats' for $1.00 to $1.50 https://www.nerdylorrin.net/jerry/postages/ https://www.nerdylorrin.net/jerry/postages/
- cr0sh 7y agoLet's say that $1.00 item now costs $5.00 with shipping after the change. How much would that item cost to purchase and ship here in the USA? I always use the example of Ametek vs TSiny - they are both DC electric gearmotor manufacturers, both are fairly international, but Ametek is headquartered in America, and TSiny in China. They make comparable products, though I would have to say that the quality of the Ametek brands could be said to be better. That's where things kinda stop. If you purchased (from a supplier/vendor) a single TSiny motor, it might cost you right now $15.00 USD, and free shipping. An equivalent motor from Ametek, however, might cost you anywhere from $50.00 to $75.00 USD before shipping. So - if the shipping of that motor from TSiny rises to say, $5.00 USD, and they also increase the cost of the motor by $5.00 USD (just because they can) - now that same motor costs $25.00 USD. Versus $50.00-75.00 USD (sans shipping) for the USA made motor from Ametek. I'm a company in the USA that builds widgets with motors in them - which supplier should I go with, assuming comparable products, in order to make the better profit? Hint: It ain't gunna be Ametek, unless they can offer a sweetheart deal for me...
- post_break 7y agoThis is probably going to hurt China big time. They will either have to open US warehouses or China will subsidize shipping even more.
- sschueller 7y agoChina will just pool shipments to US ports and mail them from inside.
- erichocean 7y agoThat's just as expensive as it is for US shippers now, so it doesn't fix anything. Source: I ship 10K+ packages overseas per month using that exact method.
- magduf 7y agoMaybe his idea was that domestic postage fees would go down, so that this would be economically viable.
- Spivak 7y agoIsn't that what people want to happen?
- legitster 7y agoYikes. This seems to set a bad precedence. For the majority the union's existence, the US has had the net benefit. It doesn't benefit us anymore? Time to leave. It just reinforces the idea that the US only participates in the world when it unilaterally benefits us.
- chipperyman573 7y agoWhat other countries have a record of regularly doing things that cause direct harm to itself for the greater good of other countries?
- darkarmani 7y ago> that cause direct harm to itself for the greater good of other countries? That's not what he said. "unilaterally benefits us." This agreement greatly benefited the US which is why we were in it this long.
- defertoreptar 7y agoWhich is exactly what the president campaigned on and presumably why his voters voted for him. And that's not strictly accurate. The US is only pulling out, something they announced a year ago, if a new deal cannot be made.
- 29_29 7y agoGoodbye Wish?
- bdcravens 7y agoMore than just Wish. There's more than a few companies in the US whose business model revolves around cheap (total cost, including shipping) goods from China.
- black_puppydog 7y agoThat's great news for anyone looking for business opportunities. Just start selling all the stuff to Europeans that so far was too cheap to ship over from the US. /s
- chewyland 7y agoOhh NO. Does this mean I won't be able to get a 79 cent LED bike light shipped from Chi na to my seaside Bulgarian Village (or Vancouver, Canada apartment) for free anymore?
- Symbiote 7y agoNo. The USA might pull out, not Bulgaria or Canada.
- ausjke 7y agothat means aliexpress and those purchases from HongKong will get much more expensive I guess? good for US exports I hope, assuming we will start making things here again.
- ausjke 7y agothat will help 'made-in-usa', or at least, 'make in mexico' assuming they can get the drug-war-violence under control, which is unlikely considering the drug dealers have much better weapons than the government army nowadays.
- phy6 7y agoI wonder if this would spur the creation of shipping consolidation centers in China, where orders from multiple vendors (on a site like AliExpress/Alibaba/DHGate) are combined into a single box before sending (like Fullfilled by Amazon tries to do)
- droithomme 7y agoGood and bad. I find it quite useful to purchase parts and goods directly from China at 1/10 the cost of buying the exact same Chinese made goods from a middleman for 10x more. Now if I was buying non-Chinese goods that would be a different issue of course. But such are not available, nor will changing shipping costs make these goods made in USA. Going forward we will be able to buy the exact same Chinese goods as before, but at much greater cost. However it will enrich middlemen whom we didn't need before. In any case this will mostly affect small shipments. Larger shipments than China Post air packets (let's say 2-20kg) currently are sent through services like DHL and SF Express. SF Express is able to handle mid size (>1kg) packages economically. They send a container load of Chinese goods to the US at which point they are broken out and dropped into the US postal service, paying full domestic rate at that point. Pulling out of this treaty will also affect our costs of shipping overseas. Granted we don't ship to China so much but we do ship other places. Also things like buying books from UK booksellers, and selling books to the UK, is feasible under this treaty. That will be less feasible. Prices will go up. Which has its advantages and disadvantages.
- jack12 7y agoI know the concern is about parcels specifically, but doesn't this agreement also cover all international mail? Is the US going to be essentially cut off from international mail delivery until the USPS can negotiate pricing and a contract with each individual country's postal service (i.e., not in place over Christmas)?
- mrb 7y agoHere is something practically all news article about China exploiting these low terminal dues fail to reveal: Since 2018 the UPU moved 40 countries, including China, to a new tier and this actually is causing them to already pay higher terminal dues. This decision was made in resolution C 7/2016, see the list of 40 countries in "group III" at page 212 of http://www.upu.int/uploads/tx_sbdownloader/actCompendiumDecisionsCongressEn.pdf http://www.upu.int/uploads/tx_sbdownloader/actCompendiumDeci... The tiers that countries are classified into are called "transitional" (developing country) and "target" (developed countries.) Transitional countries pay lower terminal dues. Target countries pay higher terminal dues. The longer you have been a target country the higher are your terminal dues. And again, China has been a "target" (developed) country since 2018. This is explained in http://www.upu.int/uploads/tx_sbdownloader/questionnaireTdrAnnex1En.pdf http://www.upu.int/uploads/tx_sbdownloader/questionnaireTdrA...: Countries in the target tier prior to 2010 pay the most Countries that entered the target tier between 2010 and 2012 pay less Countries that entered the target tier after 2016 pay even less Countries that are still in the transitional tier pay the least Every few years these dates change (by approving agreements amongst UPU members) and countries pay more and more. So everything is set for China (and 39 other countries) to pay more and more as the years go by, since they've been moved to the target tier in 2018. This 2015 USPS report explains it (https://www.uspsoig.gov/sites/default/files/document-library-files/2015/RARC-WP-16-003.pdf https://www.uspsoig.gov/sites/default/files/document-library...): «Forty of these countries, including all of the BRICS except for India, will join the target tier next year. However, moving these countries to the target category may not immediately lead to significant terminal dues payment increases. The UPU Congress will approve new rates, for the period from 2018 to 2021, next year — meaning implementation is 2 to 6 years after a decision. The new target countries may continue to have an advantage during this period.» Keep in mind this USPS report was written in 2015. This is now 2019 so the terminal dues have already been increasing 2 years in a row (2018 and 2019) and will continue to increase until 2021: https://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/terminal-dues-time-end-drain-u-s-economy/ https://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/terminal-dues-time-end-dr... They increase 13% every year. In 2019 they are up 27.7% since 2017. In 2021 they will have increased 63% since 2017. So the reality is that the US leaving the UPU is no because China pays low terminal dues. They want a deeper reform that address other issues as stated by the 2015 USPS report: excluding packages (as opposed to letters) from terminal dues, stopping private carriers from being at a disadvantage compared to national posts who receive terminal dues, etc
- kludgeaudio 7y agoYou'll notice all those cheap packages from China come stamped "Petit Paquet," which is to say surfaces mail. Now go to the post office and try to ship something out surface mail and you will find it's impossible... express service is the ONLY way that the USPS will ship internationally, as of a decade or so ago. You cannot compare shipping prices to and from China because you are comparing two totally different services. If the USPS would once again start doing surface mail abroad it might be possible for American companies to sell small items abroad again.
- kludgeaudio 7y agoYou'll notice all those cheap packages from China come stamped "Petit Paquet," which is to say surface mail. Now go to the post office and try to ship something out surface mail and you will find it's impossible... express service is the ONLY way that the USPS will ship internationally, as of a decade or so ago. You cannot compare shipping prices to and from China because you are comparing two totally different services. If the USPS would once again start doing surface mail abroad it might be possible for American companies to sell small items abroad again.