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As I understand it (and even though I live in NZ I manufacture in China and ship all over the world from there) much of the airmail shipping from China is essen

As I understand it (and even though I live in NZ I manufacture in China and ship all over the world from there) much of the airmail shipping from China is essentially founded on arbitrage of the empty space in air-mail shipping containers from Asia to the West - it's while it takes a while and sometimes your package goes out of Hong Kong, sometimes Singapore etc In essence those packets are cheap because some smart person is buying up the empty space in containers that are already going and filling them - I assume that Air-Mail FROM the US could be equally cheap if someone was entrepreneurial enough to do the same there

nickserv 7y ago
Don't know about air mail, but for maritime and rail transport, there is much more going from China to the EU or US than in the other direction by volume. This means cargo carriers have to send back empty containers to China. As a result, it's cheaper to book a container, from, say, Antwerp to Shanghai than the reverse. The difference can be quite substantial, potentially hundreds of USD per container. For the other parts of the trip I don't have any hard info but I would think rail and truck is cheaper in China per km when converted to USD.
- Scoundreller 7y ago
  That’s all especially true now that we can’t send our “recyclables” in those empty containers.
- DoctorOetker 7y ago
  >Don't know about air mail, but for maritime and rail transport, there is much more going from China to the EU or US than in the other direction by volume. Where can I verify this? Thats looking at only the direct transport? Or also indirect transport? Consider a hypothetical container from the US/EU going to Africa (bringing products, second hand goods, "recyclables", ...), then the container could pick up raw minerals and resources going to China, now theres an empty container in China and it has to go back to US/EU?
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    It’s pretty much the result of our trade deficit. Not only does China export more than is, they export much lower value products on a volume/weight basis. Heck, a big USA export to China are airplanes that can simply be flown there. China exports plenty to Africa, no need for such circuitous shipping patterns.
    - DoctorOetker 7y ago
      China has a huge population, so material consumption (raw materials or finished products) for internal use in china, can bayesian catapult reasoning on value per volume/weight basis.
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        It could, but China has other more nearby trade partners for raw materials (Russia, Central Asia, Indonesia, Australia).
  - nickserv 7y ago
    It's because the shipping containers belong to the shipping company, and are rented out for the trip. So the shipping company will have a bunch of empty containers at the port of landing (destination), and needs to send them back to the port of departure to be filled again. If trade between the two ports is balanced, then the containers will always be full regardless of the port of departure. But since trade is not balanced, they wind up having to send empty containers on the "return" voyage. Which is pure loss for the shipping company, so they are willing to heavily discount routes that have empty containers transiting. Which are these routes does change of course, but they are often those originating in the EU / US and arriving in Asia.
    - londons_explore 7y ago
      If the containers were the only concern, they could be melted down and shipped back to China in a far more compact form. Container manufacturing is very automated, so it can be very cheap to do so.
nwallin 7y ago
That still doesn't explain why it's so cheap. Planet money did a pod cast on it. Some guy selling some product could buy a Chinese knockoff of his product (including shipping) for cheaper than it costs him to ship his product from his local post office to his house in the same town. (excluding the cost of the product) Think about that. The product plus shipping across the world is cheaper than shipping across town. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/08/01/634737852/episode-857-the-postal-illuminati https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/08/01/634737852/epis...
- Taniwha 7y ago
  I think it's because they are buying space that otherwise would be empty, and maintain an elastic buffer of packages to fill those spaces as they become available - the outgoing mail containers on planes are likely booked and paid for months in advance so the people paying for them will happily take 20% of their normal rate to fill the rest of them at the last minute
  - Scoundreller 7y ago
    That, and air freight only costs around $5/kg at regular rates. The low-rate consolidators are kinda shameful by only bringing goods to the closest port to the origin, not the destination. E.g. in Canada, they only bring it to the Vancouver port, while wealthier countries will pre-sort and air it to the closest intl mail port (Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver).
    - Taniwha 7y ago
      this is a trade off between cost and speed of delivery - shipping out of China I have the choice of many different carriers - for example I can use cheap (and slowish) China Post, or faster and $6 more PostNL who will also give me tracking - I give my customers the cheap China Post for free and charge $6 for PostNL (in the near future if US mail prices go up I may be forced to charge US customers more, I may also have to raise prices to US customers if I find that Trump's sanctions start to apply to small packages and I'm stuck paying from my end)
  - 7y ago

nickserv 7y ago

Don't know about air mail, but for maritime and rail transport, there is much more going from China to the EU or US than in the other direction by volume. This means cargo carriers have to send back empty containers to China. As a result, it's cheaper to book a container, from, say, Antwerp to Shanghai than the reverse. The difference can be quite substantial, potentially hundreds of USD per container. For the other parts of the trip I don't have any hard info but I would think rail and truck is cheaper in China per km when converted to USD.

Scoundreller 7y ago
That’s all especially true now that we can’t send our “recyclables” in those empty containers.
DoctorOetker 7y ago
>Don't know about air mail, but for maritime and rail transport, there is much more going from China to the EU or US than in the other direction by volume. Where can I verify this? Thats looking at only the direct transport? Or also indirect transport? Consider a hypothetical container from the US/EU going to Africa (bringing products, second hand goods, "recyclables", ...), then the container could pick up raw minerals and resources going to China, now theres an empty container in China and it has to go back to US/EU?
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  It’s pretty much the result of our trade deficit. Not only does China export more than is, they export much lower value products on a volume/weight basis. Heck, a big USA export to China are airplanes that can simply be flown there. China exports plenty to Africa, no need for such circuitous shipping patterns.
  - DoctorOetker 7y ago
    China has a huge population, so material consumption (raw materials or finished products) for internal use in china, can bayesian catapult reasoning on value per volume/weight basis.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      It could, but China has other more nearby trade partners for raw materials (Russia, Central Asia, Indonesia, Australia).
- nickserv 7y ago
  It's because the shipping containers belong to the shipping company, and are rented out for the trip. So the shipping company will have a bunch of empty containers at the port of landing (destination), and needs to send them back to the port of departure to be filled again. If trade between the two ports is balanced, then the containers will always be full regardless of the port of departure. But since trade is not balanced, they wind up having to send empty containers on the "return" voyage. Which is pure loss for the shipping company, so they are willing to heavily discount routes that have empty containers transiting. Which are these routes does change of course, but they are often those originating in the EU / US and arriving in Asia.
  - londons_explore 7y ago
    If the containers were the only concern, they could be melted down and shipped back to China in a far more compact form. Container manufacturing is very automated, so it can be very cheap to do so.

nwallin 7y ago

That still doesn't explain why it's so cheap. Planet money did a pod cast on it. Some guy selling some product could buy a Chinese knockoff of his product (including shipping) for cheaper than it costs him to ship his product from his local post office to his house in the same town. (excluding the cost of the product) Think about that. The product plus shipping across the world is cheaper than shipping across town. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/08/01/634737852/episode-857-the-postal-illuminati https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/08/01/634737852/epis...

Taniwha 7y ago
I think it's because they are buying space that otherwise would be empty, and maintain an elastic buffer of packages to fill those spaces as they become available - the outgoing mail containers on planes are likely booked and paid for months in advance so the people paying for them will happily take 20% of their normal rate to fill the rest of them at the last minute
- Scoundreller 7y ago
  That, and air freight only costs around $5/kg at regular rates. The low-rate consolidators are kinda shameful by only bringing goods to the closest port to the origin, not the destination. E.g. in Canada, they only bring it to the Vancouver port, while wealthier countries will pre-sort and air it to the closest intl mail port (Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver).
  - Taniwha 7y ago
    this is a trade off between cost and speed of delivery - shipping out of China I have the choice of many different carriers - for example I can use cheap (and slowish) China Post, or faster and $6 more PostNL who will also give me tracking - I give my customers the cheap China Post for free and charge $6 for PostNL (in the near future if US mail prices go up I may be forced to charge US customers more, I may also have to raise prices to US customers if I find that Trump's sanctions start to apply to small packages and I'm stuck paying from my end)
- 7y ago