10 ms·

One of the biggest changes that came out of the Colgan crash is the so-called "1500 hour rule." Before Colgan, only the captain needed to have an airline transp

One of the biggest changes that came out of the Colgan crash is the so-called "1500 hour rule." Before Colgan, only the captain needed to have an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate, the highest level of pilot certification. First officers (copilots) could fly with a commercial pilot certificate, a lower grade of license. Now, both pilots are required to hold ATP certificates. ATP applicants need to have 1500 hours of flight experience—hence "1500 hour rule"—though there are exceptions if you've attended specific approved aeronautical schools or have military experience. Commercial applicants need only 250 hours. (Here too there are exceptions for certain training programs.) The standards on the flight tests are tighter for ATPs and the written exams are worlds apart. As an instructor I can tell you the difference between a 250-hour pilot and a 1500-hour pilot can be enormous. Not always—some pilots have 1500 hours, and others have the same hour, 1500 times in a row—but there can be a huge difference. This rule has been controversial though, not least of all because both pilots in the Colgan crash already had more than 1500 hours. And the FAA made so many changes after Colgan that it's been hard to tell which of those changes actually made the difference, and which, if any, were simply no-ops. Critics of the rule have especially focused on how many flight tests the Colgan captain failed, and how the response by the pilots to an aerodynamic stall was completely backwards. Aerodynamic stalls are something you learn in your first ten hours of training as a private pilot and drill constantly throughout your career, so to get that wrong at the air carrier level speaks to an incredible failure in training and evaluation.

dpflan 8y ago
"Not always—some pilots have 1500 hours, and others have the same hour, 1500 times in a row—but there can be a huge difference." This is an excellent statement emphasizing the importance of concepts like deliberate practice and a varied curriculum/experiences. I think this idea applies to all learning.
- danaliv 8y ago
  Also the importance of regular evaluation. You can develop a lot of bad habits in 1500 hours.
  - Jtsummers 8y ago
    As my band conductor drilled into us: > Practice makes permanent. Perfect practice makes perfect. Of course "perfect practice" is an ideal, and you can't achieve it yourself without having someone or something assist to evaluate in most cases. But repeating the same mistakes for 1500 hours just makes you really good at making those mistakes.
    - munk-a 8y ago
      I don't think this is a good general saying, most activities that we're performing have discoverable local maxima we can achieve... or most people will achieve, by varying their technique to observe how much better/worse easier/harder the task becomes. That said something like an instrument that is very highly tied to developing memory muscle is definitely something you can learn _wrong_. Similarly any activity where actual execution of the task is expensive/infeasible (combat for instance) also benefits a lot more from instruction.
- ticmasta 8y ago
  Definitely relates to software dev where some developers have 15 years experience and some have 15x 1 year of the same thing. In reality I think most developers have careers that look like: * 2-3 years of explosive growth and exposure * 5-10 years of slower growth and increased mastery * then diverge to shorter periods of stair-stepping (new technologies / faster mastery), coast on what they already know well or move out of active development
  - cladari 8y ago
    Teachers can fall into the same category. A teacher for 15 years or a teacher for 1 year 15 times.
    - lutorm 8y ago
      By the nature of their jobs, teachers often teach the same 1 year 15 times...
ams6110 8y ago
How does a pilot get 1500 hours if [s]he can't get an ATPL without 1500 hours? Non-passenger/cargo commercial flying?
- danaliv 8y ago
  The 1500 hour rule only applies to air carrier operations—scheduled airlines. A commercial pilot can fly charters, survey, banner-towing, skydiving, sightseeing, demos for sales, even corporate (business jets). Add a flight instructor certificate and they can teach, logging all their teaching time.
  - ticmasta 8y ago
    Is this why commercial carriers pay so much better than all the rest? Or is this no longer as true? Also, is the influx of commercial pilots into the western markets from other countries analogous to the software development "We can't find enough good developers / You don't want to pay what they demand" trends we see in tech?
    - markdown 8y ago
      > is the influx of commercial pilots into the western markets from other countries analogous to the software development "We can't find enough good developers / You don't want to pay what they demand" trends we see in tech? If by "western markets" you mean the US, it is probably the other way around. There is a shortage of pilots in the US because their citizens are flying in other parts of the world where they get paid much more than they would in the US. And unlike in tech, when a pilot changes employers he starts again at the bottom of the seniority list which means lower pay, the worst routes, last pick of vacation days, etc.
  - dsfyu404ed 8y ago
    >skydiving You misspelled "elevator operator" I used to work at an airport that had a skydive operation, we jokingly called them elevator pilots (because they just go up and down all day). They used to only pump a the required amount of fuel to get the aircraft to altitude and idle back because carrying more fuel up and down is a waste of fuel. Occasionally they would run out of fuel and glide in. One time they ran out of fuel really short and landed in the pond.
Someone1234 8y ago
It also isn't clear (aside from military) how people are meant to fund/attain ATP status. There's limited jobs with which a commercial licensed pilot can gain hours (e.g. crop dusting, sky jumpers, instructors, etc) but the number of people trying to attain ATP/jobs requiring ATPs well outstrip the number of jobs to support those people getting to 1500 hours. As you said, previously some airlines would take the pressure off by hiring commercial pilots and getting them hours as copilots. With the new rules they need 1500 before day one, so that has to come from somewhere and it isn't clear where. This is one reason airlines are struggling to find pilots.
- danaliv 8y ago
  Yes, exactly. The 1500 hour rule is a factor in the pilot shortage. Not the only factor—low pay at regionals, generational demographics, and changing perceptions of the career also play a part—but it's definitely a big factor.
  - erentz 8y ago
    How can there both be a shortage and low pay? Shouldn't the need for pilots drive up pay as demand for air travel itself isn't going down.
    - schoen 8y ago
      Probably one factor is the extreme time lag between someone becoming interested in becoming a commercial pilot and actually becoming a commercial pilot (for example, because of the need to get so much experience). It might be similar with doctors, where the required credentials take years to achieve—so if people say "hmmm, I might want to go into medicine, I think I'll do pre-med" they could still be more than a decade away from practicing medicine. It seems from upthread comments that the institutions to train prospective doctors are somewhat better-developed than the institutions to train prospective commercial pilots. (My understanding is that this used to be primarily military, but now pilots are coming in through a greater range of paths.) If people think they want to be doctors, they can apply to certain schools, get certain loans, participate in an established process to find internships (which their schools will guide them through), and so on. I don't know that there are really institutions to help the pilots this way. That doesn't mean that supply and demand somehow don't apply or don't influence people's behavior, but a need for massive amounts of training and credentialing (literally years' worth that themselves come at a high financial cost) surely slow down the response.
bedhead 8y ago
Do you have an opinion on to what extent simulators can help? I've heard a range of opinions on this, and while there is no substitute for the real thing, I can't help but notice that full flight simulators seem freakishly good these days to the point where many pilots say their minds are often tricked while in the simulator. How much can commercial airlines rely on increased simulator time to help safety and apply hours to regulatory requirements?
- danaliv 8y ago
  I've not had the pleasure of flying "full flight simulators" (the kind used by airlines) so I can't comment on those. The lower grades of simulators are good for drilling procedures but are quite bad at modeling flight dynamics.
- m463 8y ago
  Tons. Commercial flight simulators are very good. They help with mundane stuff like the layout of the cockpit or familiarization with different airports (hong kong is a must) And the harder stuff pilots could not train for in real planes like equipment failures, maybe all of them. And yes, their minds can be "tricked", meaning pilots do come out of simulated emergencies sweating.
zzless 8y ago
In their defence, on a large turboprop like the one they were flying (Q400?) an iced over horizontal stabilizer feels similar to a stall but the response is entirely different. They were hopelessly tired and distracted. The captain apparently ignored both the stick shaker and the stick pusher (when the aircraft is trying to get the pilots attention). Sometimes experience helps with self-evaluation but more often it does not, depends on the person. They should not have been flying that night (the first officer had not slept for 36 hours).
travisjungroth 8y ago
> This rule has been controversial though, not least of all because both pilots in the Colgan crash already had more than 1500 hours. Is there a term for this: reactive legislation that wouldn't have covered the incident it was in response to?
- hathawsh 8y ago
  Interesting question! There is probably a name for that kind of fallacy. The regression fallacy is close: "Ascribing a cause where none exists in situations where natural fluctuations exist while failing to account for these natural fluctuations." https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/153/Regression-Fallacy https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFalla... The term "magical thinking" is a broad label that could apply. https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/123/Magical-Thinking https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFalla...
- Spooky23 8y ago
  Typically when you use a crisis to lobby for legislation, you come with a whole bag of items that are useful to the general purpose, but are perhaps not directly relevant to the incident the response is directed at.
  - nradov 8y ago
    Never waste a crisis.
  - travisjungroth 8y ago
    That's a good point. In my head the "1500 hour rule" is a distinct thing, but it actually came in as a whole set.
- taneq 8y ago
  "Shotgun approach"? Where you react not only to the proximate cause of the incident, but to all possible proximate causes?
js2 8y ago
Re flight hours, I’m reminded of this post from Phillip Greenspan: http://philip.greenspun.com/flying/foreign-airline-safety http://philip.greenspun.com/flying/foreign-airline-safety “Foreign Airline Safety versus U.S. Major Airlines” (2009, updated 2011.)
yock 8y ago
> Aerodynamic stalls are something you learn in your first ten hours of training as a private pilot... In fact the CFI who taught my introductory flight demonstrated a stall and recovery.
maxcan 8y ago
As a PPL-IR ASEL, I've wondered a lot about this. Does an extra 1250 hours of watching student pilots put flat spots on tires and inadequately use right rudder to counter act undesired yaw really make someone a safer pilot of a large, multiengine turbo{prop,fan}? Also, as others have noted, both pilots of 3407 we well above 1500 hours
skookumchuck 8y ago
> to get that wrong at the air carrier level speaks to an incredible failure in training and evaluation The problem is pulling up in case of a stall is the natural, intuitive thing to do. In a high stress situation, one is liable to revert to it. This behavior is the cause of many, many crashes.

dpflan 8y ago

"Not always—some pilots have 1500 hours, and others have the same hour, 1500 times in a row—but there can be a huge difference." This is an excellent statement emphasizing the importance of concepts like deliberate practice and a varied curriculum/experiences. I think this idea applies to all learning.

danaliv 8y ago
Also the importance of regular evaluation. You can develop a lot of bad habits in 1500 hours.
- Jtsummers 8y ago
  As my band conductor drilled into us: > Practice makes permanent. Perfect practice makes perfect. Of course "perfect practice" is an ideal, and you can't achieve it yourself without having someone or something assist to evaluate in most cases. But repeating the same mistakes for 1500 hours just makes you really good at making those mistakes.
  - munk-a 8y ago
    I don't think this is a good general saying, most activities that we're performing have discoverable local maxima we can achieve... or most people will achieve, by varying their technique to observe how much better/worse easier/harder the task becomes. That said something like an instrument that is very highly tied to developing memory muscle is definitely something you can learn _wrong_. Similarly any activity where actual execution of the task is expensive/infeasible (combat for instance) also benefits a lot more from instruction.
ticmasta 8y ago
Definitely relates to software dev where some developers have 15 years experience and some have 15x 1 year of the same thing. In reality I think most developers have careers that look like: * 2-3 years of explosive growth and exposure * 5-10 years of slower growth and increased mastery * then diverge to shorter periods of stair-stepping (new technologies / faster mastery), coast on what they already know well or move out of active development
- cladari 8y ago
  Teachers can fall into the same category. A teacher for 15 years or a teacher for 1 year 15 times.
  - lutorm 8y ago
    By the nature of their jobs, teachers often teach the same 1 year 15 times...

ams6110 8y ago

How does a pilot get 1500 hours if [s]he can't get an ATPL without 1500 hours? Non-passenger/cargo commercial flying?

danaliv 8y ago
The 1500 hour rule only applies to air carrier operations—scheduled airlines. A commercial pilot can fly charters, survey, banner-towing, skydiving, sightseeing, demos for sales, even corporate (business jets). Add a flight instructor certificate and they can teach, logging all their teaching time.
- ticmasta 8y ago
  Is this why commercial carriers pay so much better than all the rest? Or is this no longer as true? Also, is the influx of commercial pilots into the western markets from other countries analogous to the software development "We can't find enough good developers / You don't want to pay what they demand" trends we see in tech?
  - markdown 8y ago
    > is the influx of commercial pilots into the western markets from other countries analogous to the software development "We can't find enough good developers / You don't want to pay what they demand" trends we see in tech? If by "western markets" you mean the US, it is probably the other way around. There is a shortage of pilots in the US because their citizens are flying in other parts of the world where they get paid much more than they would in the US. And unlike in tech, when a pilot changes employers he starts again at the bottom of the seniority list which means lower pay, the worst routes, last pick of vacation days, etc.
- dsfyu404ed 8y ago
  >skydiving You misspelled "elevator operator" I used to work at an airport that had a skydive operation, we jokingly called them elevator pilots (because they just go up and down all day). They used to only pump a the required amount of fuel to get the aircraft to altitude and idle back because carrying more fuel up and down is a waste of fuel. Occasionally they would run out of fuel and glide in. One time they ran out of fuel really short and landed in the pond.

Someone1234 8y ago

It also isn't clear (aside from military) how people are meant to fund/attain ATP status. There's limited jobs with which a commercial licensed pilot can gain hours (e.g. crop dusting, sky jumpers, instructors, etc) but the number of people trying to attain ATP/jobs requiring ATPs well outstrip the number of jobs to support those people getting to 1500 hours. As you said, previously some airlines would take the pressure off by hiring commercial pilots and getting them hours as copilots. With the new rules they need 1500 before day one, so that has to come from somewhere and it isn't clear where. This is one reason airlines are struggling to find pilots.

danaliv 8y ago
Yes, exactly. The 1500 hour rule is a factor in the pilot shortage. Not the only factor—low pay at regionals, generational demographics, and changing perceptions of the career also play a part—but it's definitely a big factor.
- erentz 8y ago
  How can there both be a shortage and low pay? Shouldn't the need for pilots drive up pay as demand for air travel itself isn't going down.
  - schoen 8y ago
    Probably one factor is the extreme time lag between someone becoming interested in becoming a commercial pilot and actually becoming a commercial pilot (for example, because of the need to get so much experience). It might be similar with doctors, where the required credentials take years to achieve—so if people say "hmmm, I might want to go into medicine, I think I'll do pre-med" they could still be more than a decade away from practicing medicine. It seems from upthread comments that the institutions to train prospective doctors are somewhat better-developed than the institutions to train prospective commercial pilots. (My understanding is that this used to be primarily military, but now pilots are coming in through a greater range of paths.) If people think they want to be doctors, they can apply to certain schools, get certain loans, participate in an established process to find internships (which their schools will guide them through), and so on. I don't know that there are really institutions to help the pilots this way. That doesn't mean that supply and demand somehow don't apply or don't influence people's behavior, but a need for massive amounts of training and credentialing (literally years' worth that themselves come at a high financial cost) surely slow down the response.

bedhead 8y ago

Do you have an opinion on to what extent simulators can help? I've heard a range of opinions on this, and while there is no substitute for the real thing, I can't help but notice that full flight simulators seem freakishly good these days to the point where many pilots say their minds are often tricked while in the simulator. How much can commercial airlines rely on increased simulator time to help safety and apply hours to regulatory requirements?

danaliv 8y ago
I've not had the pleasure of flying "full flight simulators" (the kind used by airlines) so I can't comment on those. The lower grades of simulators are good for drilling procedures but are quite bad at modeling flight dynamics.
m463 8y ago
Tons. Commercial flight simulators are very good. They help with mundane stuff like the layout of the cockpit or familiarization with different airports (hong kong is a must) And the harder stuff pilots could not train for in real planes like equipment failures, maybe all of them. And yes, their minds can be "tricked", meaning pilots do come out of simulated emergencies sweating.

zzless 8y ago

In their defence, on a large turboprop like the one they were flying (Q400?) an iced over horizontal stabilizer feels similar to a stall but the response is entirely different. They were hopelessly tired and distracted. The captain apparently ignored both the stick shaker and the stick pusher (when the aircraft is trying to get the pilots attention). Sometimes experience helps with self-evaluation but more often it does not, depends on the person. They should not have been flying that night (the first officer had not slept for 36 hours).

travisjungroth 8y ago

> This rule has been controversial though, not least of all because both pilots in the Colgan crash already had more than 1500 hours. Is there a term for this: reactive legislation that wouldn't have covered the incident it was in response to?

hathawsh 8y ago
Interesting question! There is probably a name for that kind of fallacy. The regression fallacy is close: "Ascribing a cause where none exists in situations where natural fluctuations exist while failing to account for these natural fluctuations." https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/153/Regression-Fallacy https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFalla... The term "magical thinking" is a broad label that could apply. https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/123/Magical-Thinking https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFalla...
Spooky23 8y ago
Typically when you use a crisis to lobby for legislation, you come with a whole bag of items that are useful to the general purpose, but are perhaps not directly relevant to the incident the response is directed at.
- nradov 8y ago
  Never waste a crisis.
- travisjungroth 8y ago
  That's a good point. In my head the "1500 hour rule" is a distinct thing, but it actually came in as a whole set.
taneq 8y ago
"Shotgun approach"? Where you react not only to the proximate cause of the incident, but to all possible proximate causes?

js2 8y ago

Re flight hours, I’m reminded of this post from Phillip Greenspan: http://philip.greenspun.com/flying/foreign-airline-safety http://philip.greenspun.com/flying/foreign-airline-safety “Foreign Airline Safety versus U.S. Major Airlines” (2009, updated 2011.)

yock 8y ago

> Aerodynamic stalls are something you learn in your first ten hours of training as a private pilot... In fact the CFI who taught my introductory flight demonstrated a stall and recovery.

maxcan 8y ago

As a PPL-IR ASEL, I've wondered a lot about this. Does an extra 1250 hours of watching student pilots put flat spots on tires and inadequately use right rudder to counter act undesired yaw really make someone a safer pilot of a large, multiengine turbo{prop,fan}? Also, as others have noted, both pilots of 3407 we well above 1500 hours

skookumchuck 8y ago

> to get that wrong at the air carrier level speaks to an incredible failure in training and evaluation The problem is pulling up in case of a stall is the natural, intuitive thing to do. In a high stress situation, one is liable to revert to it. This behavior is the cause of many, many crashes.