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No surprise. Passporting (allow banks to operate in all members of the EU if they are licensed in one member) is a key to all of the banks operations. Every ban

No surprise. Passporting (allow banks to operate in all members of the EU if they are licensed in one member) is a key to all of the banks operations. Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. The next thing to kill the market in London will be the movement of Euro clearing to an EU member. Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. The number of people that supported leave and lacked understanding of all the ties of the businesses that operate in the UK but sell in the EU was amazing. All the car manufacturing will be the next to move. There goes all the good jobs that the leave camp said were being stolen by immigration. Edit: typo and to clarify I am not an UK or EU citizen, only outside observer of the train wreck.

lazyjones 8y ago
> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. How many of them don't have one yet? Also, every bank based in the EU will have to open a regulated branch in UK in order to operate in this large market. > The number of people that supported leave and lacked understanding of all the ties of the businesses that operate in the UK but sell in the EU was amazing. Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway.
- arethuza 8y ago
  Norway and Switzerland have trade deals in place with the EU - which we don't yet, and by all accounts are unlikely to have in place before we exit.
- SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
  The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world. Switzerland is 20th and Norway 30th. The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically, it will be interesting to see if we become just another Switzerland or Norway after Brexit rather than the world economic power that we are today. Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw.
  - lazyjones 8y ago
    > The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically How is its trade balance doing lately? Not so good. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade > Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw. I'm not sure what economic indicators you are talking about. Certainly none that reflects the actual well-being of the population.
    - freedomben 8y ago
      I generally support Brexit, but I'm guessing for reasons much different than yours (I always favor decentralization as a way of increasing the power of the average citizen relative to their government). Maybe we agree? The trade balance tho is not typically a good indicator of economic health, at least not how it's typically pitched: https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit
      - Symbiote 8y ago
        The average British citizen will probably have less influence after Brexit, since the EU electoral system is actually reasonable. We'll be left with a first-past-the-post MP, and an unelected (sometimes hereditary!) House of Lords.
      - pjc50 8y ago
        The UK is one of Europe's most centralized states, and Brexit will make it more so - see Scottish government lawsuits.
  - namdnay 8y ago
    + Norway and Switzerland both have partly artificial economies, buoyed by Oil for the former and dirty money for the latter.
    - siquick 8y ago
      Britain has both oil in Scotland, and dirty money flowing through London
- lhopki01 8y ago
  Norway is a member of the single market via the EEA and Switzerland essentially is because of it's bilateral treaties. The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case)
  - lazyjones 8y ago
    > The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case) No, May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market-brexit-eu-trade-deals-what-is-uk-leave-european-union-why-a8557176.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market... This stubbornness on behalf of the EU will damage both sides economically and thus be corrected at some point when the current EU administration is replaced by a more reasonable one.
    - namdnay 8y ago
      > May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option If you can't have your cake and eat it too, it's not the baker's fault...
      - deleted 8y ago
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      - CaptainZapp 8y ago
        Well, you can certainly have your cake and eat it. The problem is that the baker expects payment and it seems that the UK is just not willing to cough up for the cake.
    - pjc50 8y ago
      Single market access is conditional on accepting freedom of movement, it's not a gratuitous refusal.
    - jcranmer 8y ago
      The Brexit movement has generally rejected calls for a Norwegian or Swiss "you're in the single market but you have to follow most of the EU rules without having a say in their governance." (Not that the Swiss model in particular was on offer, because the EU is pretty unhappy with the amount of specialness it generates).
- pjc50 8y ago
  Ironically both Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen. If we were leaving to Norway's status everything would be fine, but we're not.
- boudin 8y ago
  Both Switzerland and Norway are part of single market with free movement of EU citizen. If Brexit happens with a no-deal or no single market access, it's unlikely that it can be compared with Switzerland and Norway situation.
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- matthewmacleod 8y ago
  Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. Don't underestimate what's happening here – it would have been possible to execute Brexit in a relatively controlled manner, but that wasn't done, and now the UK is rapidly heading towards a pretty unpleasant outcome.
  - muro 8y ago
    Switzerland is part of Schengen (which UK is not), yet not a member of the single market - they are not in the EU for customs purposes, have many restrictions on imports (e.g. food).
    - matthewmacleod 8y ago
      Okay, you're right – it's more complex than I implied. Switzerland is a single market participant through bilateral treaties, like Norway and Iceland are through EEA. While they aren't "members" of the single market, I think we'd usually consider those four EFTA countries plus the 28 EU states to make up the "single market", though I accept there is no clear terminology in some ways! Still though, such a relationship is equally not the plan of the current UK government, and customs union membership is not a prerequisite for single market 'membership' as such.
  - lazyjones 8y ago
    > That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. The UK is trying to leave the EU and stay in the single market. The EU is trying to deny the UK access to the single market.
    - pjc50 8y ago
      The UK has the option of staying in the single market .. if it accepts freedom of movement. This is the "Norway" option everyone keeps talking about.
- gumby 8y ago
  > Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. Norway and Switzerland are subject to almost all the EU regulations but unlike the UK have no say, much less veto, in the making or enforcement of those rules. Is that situation really what Brexiteers wanted?
  - lazyjones 8y ago
    These rules are subject to local legislation. Switzerland and Norway can renegotiate any time they want and occasionally do so. https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-treaty/a-46639844 https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-tr... This is a much stronger position to be in and the UK is a much larger "adversary" in tough negotiations (and has always been even within the EU).
    - Xylakant 8y ago
      Switzerland is trying to renegotiate the full freedom of movement that they have accepted previously and while this negotiation stalls, the old rules stay in place. There’s no reason the UK cannot negotiate their levels of access to the EU market like the Swiss or the Norwegians do, but the EU won’t grant full access without full freedom of movement. In fact, all of this is what’s happening now. How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed.
      - lazyjones 8y ago
        > How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed. There's a lot of scaremongering going around. The "no deal" scenario is terrifying for the EU as well, especially if the Britons don't pay the 39b and shut down their market. Unfortunately, the current EU administration has a track record of self-inflicted wounds (e.g. Russia sanctions), so this is the most likely scenario now.
        JAlexoid 8y ago
        EU isn't a single country, you know... And there are no countries that will collapse without those 39bn. There's also the fun fact - UK will not get it's rebates.
cm2187 8y ago
> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member nitpicking but these are unlikely to be branches but rather subsidiaries. London banks will still be able to have branches in the EU to clear EUR payments and access the ECB but are unlikely to be able to do any regulated activity (selling financial products, taking deposits or writing mortgages) out of these branches.
- bayesian_horse 8y ago
  These banks can't do that part of the business out of the UK or with a UK workforce anymore. So the tax income, foreign currency trade etc goes elsewhere.
  - cm2187 8y ago
    Correct. Though if that business was already made out of a EU branch of a London bank (likely for retail business), the tax income was already in the EU, not in the UK.
    - JAlexoid 8y ago
      London has thousands upon thousands of people working in the banking sector. JPMorgan, Bank of America, VTB, Bank of China - all have 0 retail operations in London and massive headquarters. Citibank has barely any retail operations as well...
    - bayesian_horse 8y ago
      The EU doesn't tax anything, though. You may be talking about the non-UK EU members, instead. And no, I was not referring to parts of that business...
- JAlexoid 8y ago
  International banks will have bigger subsidiaries in EU countries, while UK based banks will have to get new full fledged subsidiaries in EU. EC already warned the banks, that shell branches will not be tolerated... As complex operations cannot be overseen by people residing outside of EU jurisdictions(that's a warning about being a shady dealer, while hiding away from EU)
growlist 8y ago
And property prices in London/South East become affordable again, Sterling falls benefiting inward investment, exports, and tourism. So not all bad news then! :) There's so much defeatism within the UK and anti-Brexit propaganda flying around from vested interests. It's all so tiresome. > Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. Money isn't the only thing in life.
- Loughla 8y ago
  >Money isn't the only thing in life. Disclaimer - I'm not trying to be hateful. That seems like a completely nonsense, garbage statement. Brexit is primarily about money and economics, from what I can tell on the outside looking in. So what was your purpose in writing that?
  - e1ven 8y ago
    It sounds like his point is that even if there are fewer big banks, he might be able to buy/rent an apartment in more desirable areas of the city. I interpret his comment as pointing out a value to intangibles that are sometimes overlooked when viewing the country through a broad economic lens.
    - laumars 8y ago
      The people who will be hurt the most would be those who are at the bottom of the proverbial food chain to begin with. Desirable areas will still be expensive because people on high income or positions of power will still hold those positions. It's the lower / under paid workers who will see pay freezes and lay offs while the cost of living will continue to rise. Instead of levelling the playing field, I expect the brexit will just create an even bigger divide between the wealthy and the poor.
      - growlist 8y ago
        > It's the lower / under paid workers who will see pay freezes and lay offs while the cost of living will continue to rise. But doesn't mass immigration also hurt those at the bottom? It's not the well off that are facing competition for jobs, housing etc. is it?
justaguyhere 8y ago
I don't feel bad (much) for those who voted for Brexit - all they had to do was spend 15 mins googling and thinking. Even if they didn't understand the full impact of leaving the EU, it was plain then (and now) to see it is such a bad idea from any angle. I do feel bad for those who voted to stay - they're gonna suffer now, despite voting responsibly and sensibly. I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it is democracy won and people spoke, the other way to look at it is we can't always expect the masses to make rational/sensible decisions.
- yakshaving_jgt 8y ago
  A democracy needs an informed electorate to function. By your own admission, [the majority of] those that voted Leave didn’t understand what they were voting for. By that measure, I don’t believe “democracy won”.
  - justaguyhere 8y ago
    That is why I said I don't know how to take this. Yes, a democracy needs an informed electorate to function. But it is the electorate's responsibility to keep themselves informed. There will always be fake news, click baits and outright wrong/illegal manoeuvers from someone or the other. IMHO, if the electorate can't take a few mins to understand what they are voting on, they don't deserve to vote.
    - yakshaving_jgt 8y ago
      I agree with you. Sadly, any time I have suggested that not everyone is equal and therefore not everyone deserves the same rights in determining circumstances for others, someone has invoked Godwin’s law. Tough problem to solve.
    - zimpenfish 8y ago
      > But it is the electorate's responsibility to keep themselves informed. Is it? Surely this is why we have people we delegate to because most people aren't going to be spending their time trying to keep up with the finer points of macroeconomics within a multicountry trading block as it pertains to tariffs, etc. Much like I delegate to a doctor when I'm ill - if he gave me the wrong treatment and said "it's your fault, you should be better informed", that would seem a little harsh, no? [edit to correct a mistaken plural]
Consultant32452 8y ago
I suspect it will take about ten seconds for the trade concerns the doom and gloomers are worried about to get resolved. UK is the second largest economy in the EU. The idea that they won't quickly and easily resolve trade concerns seems silly. EU member states will still want UK money.
- jpfr 8y ago
  > EU member states will still want UK money. Those shiny Euros the UK is coining? Seriously, the banking services provided by the city will move to Paris and Frankfurt in no time. Outside the EU, London has zero structural advantage or lock-in.
  - repolfx 8y ago
    Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry? There are many cities in the EU. If London has no advantages other than being in the EU then why is so much financial work done there? By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing, and the British government had to sue the EU in its own courts to get the ban lifted (said ban entirely violated all the treaties which explicitly forbid that, and the Commission knew it, which goes to show what kind of government we're talking about here). Despite these challenges the UK has done very well and not just in finance. In 2018, out of the big western European economies (the UK, France, Germany, Italy) which do you think had some of the best GDP growth? https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significant-growth-slowdown/ https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significa... Yes, in the November quarterly GDP figures released by Eurostat, they showed the UK did the best. If you believed what you read in the press you'd think the UK economy was about to collapse, but it's not the case.
    - jayalpha 8y ago
      "Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry?" Well, sorry for the pun, but you obviously don't: "By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing" The EU wanted to have the EURO clearing in countries that have the Euro. The EU supreme court, that is hated so much in the UK, actually ruled that such a demand can not be made since the UK is in the EU (but not in the Euro). Since the UK is leaving the EU now, Euroclearing will move back to the Eurozone with a sunrise period granted by the EU. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city-london-european-union-lch-lse-euro-clearing-ecb-brexit-latest-a8272356.html https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city... It does not make sense to look only of the cost of something (e.g. EU membership fees) without looking of the benefits gained. Allowance of euro clearing was one of the benefits.
technotony 8y ago
Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic. This is the country that invented industrialization and modern democratic governance. We stand at the dawn of a new era of technological shifts that are going to require radically different political/economic systems - I would not bet against the UK being the place that invents those systems now it's free from the shackles of the EU. Note I voted remain but the short term economic arguments don't carry much weight to me, all we know is that we don't know as there is so much uncertainty here.
- jayalpha 8y ago
  "Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic." Well, the "strong work ethic" is well reflected in your productivity :-) https://qz.com/1096354/ons-data-analysis-uks-productivity-problem-is-almost-twice-as-bad-as-the-rest-of-the-g7/ https://qz.com/1096354/ons-data-analysis-uks-productivity-pr...
- dabeeeenster 8y ago
  What are "the shackles of the EU"?!?!
- hnnh44 8y ago
  You're assuming those "highly educated, creative, dynamic workforce" will stick around through the "short term" (decades?) pain rather than migrate. Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. The people with the least value and mobility will be what's left. Being the pioneers doesn't mean they'll be the ultimate beneficiaries of it.
  - CM30 8y ago
    > Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. So they'll go to Silicon Valley then? Tech salaries are nowhere near that high in Europe and I don't think Brexit's gonna change that. For either the UK or anywhere in the EU.

lazyjones 8y ago

> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. How many of them don't have one yet? Also, every bank based in the EU will have to open a regulated branch in UK in order to operate in this large market. > The number of people that supported leave and lacked understanding of all the ties of the businesses that operate in the UK but sell in the EU was amazing. Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway.

arethuza 8y ago
Norway and Switzerland have trade deals in place with the EU - which we don't yet, and by all accounts are unlikely to have in place before we exit.
SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world. Switzerland is 20th and Norway 30th. The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically, it will be interesting to see if we become just another Switzerland or Norway after Brexit rather than the world economic power that we are today. Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw.
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically How is its trade balance doing lately? Not so good. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade > Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw. I'm not sure what economic indicators you are talking about. Certainly none that reflects the actual well-being of the population.
  - freedomben 8y ago
    I generally support Brexit, but I'm guessing for reasons much different than yours (I always favor decentralization as a way of increasing the power of the average citizen relative to their government). Maybe we agree? The trade balance tho is not typically a good indicator of economic health, at least not how it's typically pitched: https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit
    - Symbiote 8y ago
      The average British citizen will probably have less influence after Brexit, since the EU electoral system is actually reasonable. We'll be left with a first-past-the-post MP, and an unelected (sometimes hereditary!) House of Lords.
    - pjc50 8y ago
      The UK is one of Europe's most centralized states, and Brexit will make it more so - see Scottish government lawsuits.
- namdnay 8y ago
  + Norway and Switzerland both have partly artificial economies, buoyed by Oil for the former and dirty money for the latter.
  - siquick 8y ago
    Britain has both oil in Scotland, and dirty money flowing through London
lhopki01 8y ago
Norway is a member of the single market via the EEA and Switzerland essentially is because of it's bilateral treaties. The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case)
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case) No, May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market-brexit-eu-trade-deals-what-is-uk-leave-european-union-why-a8557176.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market... This stubbornness on behalf of the EU will damage both sides economically and thus be corrected at some point when the current EU administration is replaced by a more reasonable one.
  - namdnay 8y ago
    > May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option If you can't have your cake and eat it too, it's not the baker's fault...
    - deleted 8y ago
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    - CaptainZapp 8y ago
      Well, you can certainly have your cake and eat it. The problem is that the baker expects payment and it seems that the UK is just not willing to cough up for the cake.
  - pjc50 8y ago
    Single market access is conditional on accepting freedom of movement, it's not a gratuitous refusal.
  - jcranmer 8y ago
    The Brexit movement has generally rejected calls for a Norwegian or Swiss "you're in the single market but you have to follow most of the EU rules without having a say in their governance." (Not that the Swiss model in particular was on offer, because the EU is pretty unhappy with the amount of specialness it generates).
pjc50 8y ago
Ironically both Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen. If we were leaving to Norway's status everything would be fine, but we're not.
boudin 8y ago
Both Switzerland and Norway are part of single market with free movement of EU citizen. If Brexit happens with a no-deal or no single market access, it's unlikely that it can be compared with Switzerland and Norway situation.
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matthewmacleod 8y ago
Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. Don't underestimate what's happening here – it would have been possible to execute Brexit in a relatively controlled manner, but that wasn't done, and now the UK is rapidly heading towards a pretty unpleasant outcome.
- muro 8y ago
  Switzerland is part of Schengen (which UK is not), yet not a member of the single market - they are not in the EU for customs purposes, have many restrictions on imports (e.g. food).
  - matthewmacleod 8y ago
    Okay, you're right – it's more complex than I implied. Switzerland is a single market participant through bilateral treaties, like Norway and Iceland are through EEA. While they aren't "members" of the single market, I think we'd usually consider those four EFTA countries plus the 28 EU states to make up the "single market", though I accept there is no clear terminology in some ways! Still though, such a relationship is equally not the plan of the current UK government, and customs union membership is not a prerequisite for single market 'membership' as such.
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. The UK is trying to leave the EU and stay in the single market. The EU is trying to deny the UK access to the single market.
  - pjc50 8y ago
    The UK has the option of staying in the single market .. if it accepts freedom of movement. This is the "Norway" option everyone keeps talking about.
gumby 8y ago
> Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. Norway and Switzerland are subject to almost all the EU regulations but unlike the UK have no say, much less veto, in the making or enforcement of those rules. Is that situation really what Brexiteers wanted?
- lazyjones 8y ago
  These rules are subject to local legislation. Switzerland and Norway can renegotiate any time they want and occasionally do so. https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-treaty/a-46639844 https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-tr... This is a much stronger position to be in and the UK is a much larger "adversary" in tough negotiations (and has always been even within the EU).
  - Xylakant 8y ago
    Switzerland is trying to renegotiate the full freedom of movement that they have accepted previously and while this negotiation stalls, the old rules stay in place. There’s no reason the UK cannot negotiate their levels of access to the EU market like the Swiss or the Norwegians do, but the EU won’t grant full access without full freedom of movement. In fact, all of this is what’s happening now. How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed.
    - lazyjones 8y ago
      > How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed. There's a lot of scaremongering going around. The "no deal" scenario is terrifying for the EU as well, especially if the Britons don't pay the 39b and shut down their market. Unfortunately, the current EU administration has a track record of self-inflicted wounds (e.g. Russia sanctions), so this is the most likely scenario now.
      - JAlexoid 8y ago
        EU isn't a single country, you know... And there are no countries that will collapse without those 39bn. There's also the fun fact - UK will not get it's rebates.

cm2187 8y ago

> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member nitpicking but these are unlikely to be branches but rather subsidiaries. London banks will still be able to have branches in the EU to clear EUR payments and access the ECB but are unlikely to be able to do any regulated activity (selling financial products, taking deposits or writing mortgages) out of these branches.

bayesian_horse 8y ago
These banks can't do that part of the business out of the UK or with a UK workforce anymore. So the tax income, foreign currency trade etc goes elsewhere.
- cm2187 8y ago
  Correct. Though if that business was already made out of a EU branch of a London bank (likely for retail business), the tax income was already in the EU, not in the UK.
  - JAlexoid 8y ago
    London has thousands upon thousands of people working in the banking sector. JPMorgan, Bank of America, VTB, Bank of China - all have 0 retail operations in London and massive headquarters. Citibank has barely any retail operations as well...
  - bayesian_horse 8y ago
    The EU doesn't tax anything, though. You may be talking about the non-UK EU members, instead. And no, I was not referring to parts of that business...
JAlexoid 8y ago
International banks will have bigger subsidiaries in EU countries, while UK based banks will have to get new full fledged subsidiaries in EU. EC already warned the banks, that shell branches will not be tolerated... As complex operations cannot be overseen by people residing outside of EU jurisdictions(that's a warning about being a shady dealer, while hiding away from EU)

growlist 8y ago

And property prices in London/South East become affordable again, Sterling falls benefiting inward investment, exports, and tourism. So not all bad news then! :) There's so much defeatism within the UK and anti-Brexit propaganda flying around from vested interests. It's all so tiresome. > Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. Money isn't the only thing in life.

Loughla 8y ago
>Money isn't the only thing in life. Disclaimer - I'm not trying to be hateful. That seems like a completely nonsense, garbage statement. Brexit is primarily about money and economics, from what I can tell on the outside looking in. So what was your purpose in writing that?
- e1ven 8y ago
  It sounds like his point is that even if there are fewer big banks, he might be able to buy/rent an apartment in more desirable areas of the city. I interpret his comment as pointing out a value to intangibles that are sometimes overlooked when viewing the country through a broad economic lens.
  - laumars 8y ago
    The people who will be hurt the most would be those who are at the bottom of the proverbial food chain to begin with. Desirable areas will still be expensive because people on high income or positions of power will still hold those positions. It's the lower / under paid workers who will see pay freezes and lay offs while the cost of living will continue to rise. Instead of levelling the playing field, I expect the brexit will just create an even bigger divide between the wealthy and the poor.
    - growlist 8y ago
      > It's the lower / under paid workers who will see pay freezes and lay offs while the cost of living will continue to rise. But doesn't mass immigration also hurt those at the bottom? It's not the well off that are facing competition for jobs, housing etc. is it?

justaguyhere 8y ago

I don't feel bad (much) for those who voted for Brexit - all they had to do was spend 15 mins googling and thinking. Even if they didn't understand the full impact of leaving the EU, it was plain then (and now) to see it is such a bad idea from any angle. I do feel bad for those who voted to stay - they're gonna suffer now, despite voting responsibly and sensibly. I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it is democracy won and people spoke, the other way to look at it is we can't always expect the masses to make rational/sensible decisions.

yakshaving_jgt 8y ago
A democracy needs an informed electorate to function. By your own admission, [the majority of] those that voted Leave didn’t understand what they were voting for. By that measure, I don’t believe “democracy won”.
- justaguyhere 8y ago
  That is why I said I don't know how to take this. Yes, a democracy needs an informed electorate to function. But it is the electorate's responsibility to keep themselves informed. There will always be fake news, click baits and outright wrong/illegal manoeuvers from someone or the other. IMHO, if the electorate can't take a few mins to understand what they are voting on, they don't deserve to vote.
  - yakshaving_jgt 8y ago
    I agree with you. Sadly, any time I have suggested that not everyone is equal and therefore not everyone deserves the same rights in determining circumstances for others, someone has invoked Godwin’s law. Tough problem to solve.
  - zimpenfish 8y ago
    > But it is the electorate's responsibility to keep themselves informed. Is it? Surely this is why we have people we delegate to because most people aren't going to be spending their time trying to keep up with the finer points of macroeconomics within a multicountry trading block as it pertains to tariffs, etc. Much like I delegate to a doctor when I'm ill - if he gave me the wrong treatment and said "it's your fault, you should be better informed", that would seem a little harsh, no? [edit to correct a mistaken plural]

Consultant32452 8y ago

I suspect it will take about ten seconds for the trade concerns the doom and gloomers are worried about to get resolved. UK is the second largest economy in the EU. The idea that they won't quickly and easily resolve trade concerns seems silly. EU member states will still want UK money.

jpfr 8y ago
> EU member states will still want UK money. Those shiny Euros the UK is coining? Seriously, the banking services provided by the city will move to Paris and Frankfurt in no time. Outside the EU, London has zero structural advantage or lock-in.
- repolfx 8y ago
  Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry? There are many cities in the EU. If London has no advantages other than being in the EU then why is so much financial work done there? By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing, and the British government had to sue the EU in its own courts to get the ban lifted (said ban entirely violated all the treaties which explicitly forbid that, and the Commission knew it, which goes to show what kind of government we're talking about here). Despite these challenges the UK has done very well and not just in finance. In 2018, out of the big western European economies (the UK, France, Germany, Italy) which do you think had some of the best GDP growth? https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significant-growth-slowdown/ https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significa... Yes, in the November quarterly GDP figures released by Eurostat, they showed the UK did the best. If you believed what you read in the press you'd think the UK economy was about to collapse, but it's not the case.
  - jayalpha 8y ago
    "Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry?" Well, sorry for the pun, but you obviously don't: "By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing" The EU wanted to have the EURO clearing in countries that have the Euro. The EU supreme court, that is hated so much in the UK, actually ruled that such a demand can not be made since the UK is in the EU (but not in the Euro). Since the UK is leaving the EU now, Euroclearing will move back to the Eurozone with a sunrise period granted by the EU. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city-london-european-union-lch-lse-euro-clearing-ecb-brexit-latest-a8272356.html https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/financial-services-city... It does not make sense to look only of the cost of something (e.g. EU membership fees) without looking of the benefits gained. Allowance of euro clearing was one of the benefits.

technotony 8y ago

Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic. This is the country that invented industrialization and modern democratic governance. We stand at the dawn of a new era of technological shifts that are going to require radically different political/economic systems - I would not bet against the UK being the place that invents those systems now it's free from the shackles of the EU. Note I voted remain but the short term economic arguments don't carry much weight to me, all we know is that we don't know as there is so much uncertainty here.

jayalpha 8y ago
"Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic." Well, the "strong work ethic" is well reflected in your productivity :-) https://qz.com/1096354/ons-data-analysis-uks-productivity-problem-is-almost-twice-as-bad-as-the-rest-of-the-g7/ https://qz.com/1096354/ons-data-analysis-uks-productivity-pr...
dabeeeenster 8y ago
What are "the shackles of the EU"?!?!
hnnh44 8y ago
You're assuming those "highly educated, creative, dynamic workforce" will stick around through the "short term" (decades?) pain rather than migrate. Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. The people with the least value and mobility will be what's left. Being the pioneers doesn't mean they'll be the ultimate beneficiaries of it.
- CM30 8y ago
  > Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. So they'll go to Silicon Valley then? Tech salaries are nowhere near that high in Europe and I don't think Brexit's gonna change that. For either the UK or anywhere in the EU.