12 ms·
VW says combustion cars will fade away after 2026
- dman 8y agoIsnt VW opening themselves upto the Osborne effect by mentioning this? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect)?
- tialaramex 8y agoOsborne effect is caused by announcing a superior product you aren't selling. Customers can't buy the announced product and won't buy what's available instead. But VW already sells or has ready products like the e-Golf (or indeed the Taycan mentioned in the article). So if you read this and think "Oh, I should buy an electric car" well that's fine, VW will sell you one of those today.
- newnewpdro 8y agoThey could also be preventing customers interested in supporting a sustainable energy future from leaving the brand for Tesla vs. driving their existing VW a little longer until a VW EV comes to market that suits their needs/preferences. By going on the record stating as soon as 2026 ICEs are finished at the company, it clearly states that their lineup will be electrified shortly.
- anticensor 8y agoMr.Porsche's first car was petrol-electric hybrid, because he deemed clutches unreliable. And he got it right, because clutches wear out so quickly that DSG boxes, after 80 years of gearbox development, need clutch adjustments every five years. He should have developed the Beetle as a petrol-electric hybrid with continuous throttle and resistive brake instead of a petrol car with 4+1 switching gearbox.
- mhh__ 8y ago1. DSGs are still relatively new 2. Most clutches these days can easily go untouched throughout at least one owners use of a car.
- costcopizza 8y agoSlightly misleading title. VW's last generation of combustion motors will be released in 2026. Basic motor platforms can and do last for decades after initially introduced, so I think closer to 2040 is a safer bet.
- stcredzero 8y agoWhen you're talking about a "fade" in audio, there's a start time, an end time, and a duration. So it's not at all inaccurate from that point of view to say that combustion motors will fade away after 2026.
- jessriedel 8y agoThings that are not technically inaccurate but give the typical reader the wrong impression (e.g., me in this case) is pretty much the definition of "misleading".
- stcredzero 8y agoMany people are familiar with the media vocabulary of audio production and cinema/video editing. Just the word "after" is enough clarification.
- jessriedel 8y ago"Many" is not enough if most are misled. "After" doesn't fix the key ambiguity that is being exploited.
- awesomepeter 8y agoIs the word "fading" really so hard? It's a pretty common word IMO, not even specific to audio/video..
- jessriedel 8y ago
- stevemadere 8y agoYeah, but they're gonna include a software patch that turns off the IC engine whenever an emissions detector is attached so it will always appear to be carbon neutral.
- jmathai 8y agoWhen I read the headline I couldn't help but think "how is VW still in business?". If you're not familiar with the degree to which they deceived regulators and the public I suggest the Netflix documentary. https://www.netflix.com/title/80118100 https://www.netflix.com/title/80118100 (Season 1, Episode 1).
- yason 8y agoThe issue is a bit two-fold. Yes, they did shaft the regulators to get things green on paper but the owners of Volkswagen cars weren't exactly deprived of anything directly. Here in Europe there are people who have deliberately refused the VW fix because they'd rather keep the better fuel economy and engine response rather than comply with emissions regulations. Not complying is not exactly unheard of: instead of replacing faulty units people rip off diesel particulate filters and block EGR valves on diesel engines for performance and engine longevity reasons. Reducing pollution apparently isn't valued by the end-user market that much. And European car owners are very much price-sensitive because motoring in general is expensive and taxed high. Owning a Volkswagen isn't basically a worse experience than before. Their PR image might have suffered a hit, sure. But VW is huge and people in Europe still buy them. Diesel has been a bit unpopular in Europe recently but that's mostly because some cities are limiting or planning to limit old diesel cars from accessing the city centres.
- jmathai 8y agoAt a very micro level it maybe a true statement that someone wasn't deprived of anything they valued. However, an automaker has a responsibility at a macro level because they sell so many cars. Here's what seemed exceptional in the VW case. 1) They built cars with software that had a single purpose of misleading (lying is a more accurate term here) to regulators on their efficiency. 2) When caught they denied it. 3) When they couldn't deny it anymore they updated the software to mislead again (lying in hopes they could continue with the first lie) 4) By this point the highest levels in VW were involved. Not meeting emissions regulations may not be a big deal for everyone but it impacts others and it has direct impact on others. I'm not saying you are defending VW but I don't think anything they did was remotely defensible.
- sonnyblarney 8y agoIn Norway, yes. In the rest of the world which is #1 price conscious, cars will be along for a while unless they are near the equator with tons of sunlight and cheap panels + functioning grid.
- Joe-Z 8y agoAre you arguing that the lead Norway has in EVs stems from Norwegians just being morally superior and not „#1 price conscious“? Because from what I‘ve heard the Norwegian government is pumping out a whole lot of subsidies to push EVs (including allowing to use bus lanes, which other vehicles are barred from)
- sonnyblarney 8y agoThey are rich and therefore in a position to be 'morally superior' :) They have some pretty aggressive plans on electric cars, and they're very wealthy (ironically from oil...) consumers can buy them, and buy them at a high rate. The Scandinavian countries will probably be first to 'no combustion' cars, my #1 bet is Norway, #2 Sweden, #3 Denmark. #4 Netherlands. After that, who knows. Maybe Hong Kong or Singapore i.e. where it's 'small, rich and the economics work'.
- jbay808 8y agoAmerica isn't rich?
- sonnyblarney 8y agoNorwegians are per capita significantly richer than Americans. GDP per capita is a lot higher, and they have a sovereign wealth fund that owns almost 2% of all public stocks in the entire world. So 'America is rich' and Americans on average have quite a lot of cash, but overall, not so much as they will flip to electric at a $40K price tag. The Norwegians will flip to 100% electric soon. Also for social/political reasons as well though. Kuwaitis are rich but they're not going electric anytime soon.
- 8y ago
- ilamont 8y agoHow will EVs or vehicles running on alternate fuel sources work in areas where there is no fuel distribution system to support them?
- exelius 8y agoYou know how there is already a divide between people who live in cities and people who live in rural areas? It’s about to get a whole lot worse.
- chcknsammich 8y agoI live in a city, I have no garage, an EV is impractical for me. I grew up outside of a city, with a garage, and electric. It isn't the 1890s. Cities are less equipped for self-owned EVs than the rural.
- outworlder 8y ago> I live in a city, I have no garage, an EV is impractical for me. Here's my heuristic. What are the places your car usually spends parked at, and do these places have at least a power outlet you can plug into(a proper charging stations is better of course)? For most city-dwellers, that's either their home, their workplace, or any other place they spend some time on (supermarkets?). Do any of these places, or places nearby, provide a way for you to charge? If yes, you should be fine. Failing that, it starts to become less practical, as you'll have to rely on quick-charging (if it is even available). Honestly, this isn't much of a concern medium term. Yes, it's problem now. But, as the EV fleet increases, so will the market pressures for a proper charging infrastructure. It costs much less than creating a gas infrastructure. Most places have electricity, they may require some upgrades, but that's relatively cheap (compare that to adding more gas stations).
- Gibbon1 8y agoWalking to friends that own EV's one metric really is how many days can you go between charges. And the ratio of miles driven vs charging opportunities. And old lady that drives 1500 miles a year to go shopping might well find all of her charging needs are satisfied by plugging the car in while shopping Petco and Walmart. Because at that rate she only needs the car plugged in for an hour a week. 1500miles/52weeks -> 30 miles/week / 30 miles range per charging hour -> 1hr/week.
- cheerioty 8y agoI say VW will fade away before 2026.
- jacquesm 8y agoI say they won't: https://www.carscoops.com/2018/09/vw-group-set-record-year-delivered-7-3-million-vehicles-far/ https://www.carscoops.com/2018/09/vw-group-set-record-year-d...
- blattimwind 8y agoHN seems pretty notorious to me for hating VW while being largely oblivious to the actions of others.
- favorited 8y agoReally? You think that over the next 8 years, the world's 2nd largest automaker will disappear?
- btilly 8y agoI've pointed this out in other discussions, but might as well point it out again. One of the problems that VW is about to encounter is that its interests as a manufacturer run directly opposite to its dealers' interests. VW wants to start selling pure electric cars because that is where the market is going. However any VW dealer who convinces a customer to buy an ICE car has also sold themselves good odds of a future revenue stream maintaining that car. However if they sell an electric car they are going to see that car less often. Therefore VW can make electric cars, but its dealers will try to not sell them. This opens up an opportunity for new brands because people in the market for electric cars are likely to try to buy electric cars similar to the ones that they see on the road. Which means that shiny Tesla, those glorified golf carts you sometimes see, and all of the up and coming electric car brands in China and India that would love to break into Western markets. The history of disruptive innovation suggests that the end result is likely to be that people switch to new companies and most existing car companies will go out of business. So far everything about the transition to electric has followed the usual course (including established companies publicly announcing that they are switching technologies because they know where the future is), so there is no reason to believe that the result will be different this time.
- derefr 8y ago> people switch to new companies and most existing car companies will go out of business You mean, "and most existing car companies get bought out by the now-larger new companies", no? A manufacturing base and logistics supply chain, at fire-sale prices, is nothing any sensible public company would hesitate to acquire. And, given that they'd be acquiring the company's IP (e.g. its brand) along with the assembly lines, why not rename themselves to the more well-known name? I fully expect that in 2050 we'll still have a company called Ford pumping out cars. They'll just be pumping out the "Ford Model Y" under Tesla [now Ford] ownership, or the "Ford Qin" under BYD Auto [now Ford] ownership.
- btilly 8y agoYou mean, "and most existing car companies get bought out by the now-larger new companies", no? Very much no. There is nothing unique that the existing companies own that up and coming companies desire. It is very much the opposite. It is easier to invent new stuff than it is to winnow out the hidden assumptions in what exists already. Some of the companies that are part of existing supply chains may successfully make the transition. A tire is a tire no matter what the engine looks like. But there is no reason for someone who is beating Ford in the market to want to pay Ford what Ford imagines its existing investments in obsolete technology are worth.
- LrnByTeach 8y agoThe rate at which battery prices are dropping and self-driving technology is being developed, VW plan about combustion engines is right. Here is the most probable scenario by 2025: 2022 : electric self-driving on-demand FLEET car 1000 miles/month subscription for $350/months from Google, Uber, Lyft 2025: same car 1000 miles/month subscription for $250/month. Individual car ownership will reduce by at least 35% from 2018 ownership levels in developed countries. by 2023, Google will supply Self-driving OS software to all FLEETs (except China Didi which develops it's own) and discontinue their own fleet running business. GM, Toyota, VW, Renault forced to run own FLEETS to stay in business like Uber, DiDi
- benmarten 8y agoYou forgot Apple, since they are secretly working on their own car too - I heard ;)
- tom_ 8y agoWhat does FLEET stand for?
- andrewprock 8y agoI'll take the over for all of those dates.
- sdinsn 8y agoThat's a pretty overconfident estimate. There's no way there will be fleets of electric self-driving cars at 2022, it will be at least 2030 or later.
- LrnByTeach 8y agoin 2022 start of fleet cars don't mean fleets should replace 30% of today's car ownership. If you live in any city or suburb in USA today, electric bikes from Bird, Lime, Skip companies are left on the rode side waiting to be activated by mobile phone from anybody. Same thing start with self-driving electric cars starting 2022 . It starts with 5% (in number) of today's cars in a given neighborhood. You just activate with mobile phone as we all do TODAY with these electric bikes/scooters in our neighborhood. As you know google's Waymo just started these on-demand cars in Phoneix Arizona few weeks ago, any pre-registered users can hail this self-driving car from phone. There are keeping a safe driver just sitting idle as of today. I am confident on January 1, 2020 ( in select USA cities) Google will have No safety human driver and cars will be parked in neighborhood just like these Bird, Lime scooters.
- jsemrau 8y agoA lot of things about mobility will change over the next decade. And I wrote quite extensively about it in the past. Urbanization will reduce the need of car ownership. Fleet maintainability will overtake planned obsolescence. [1]https://medium.com/@jsemrau/mobility-illuminates-the-end-of-ownership-3a73146d1ff5 https://medium.com/@jsemrau/mobility-illuminates-the-end-of-...
- megaman8 8y agoIt's great to see a car manufacturer taking their environmental responsibilities so seriously, especially since it's in their own interest. but, i hope electric cars will be more reliable than tesla has been. Tesla's reliability is now 3rd from the bottom, although i know there are a lot of reasons for this: (lots of new tech etc).
- beatgammit 8y agoWell, I think they have to since they got burned so badly with the diesel debacle.
- sabareesh 8y agoWhy do you say Tesla is not reliable. Its been 9 months no issues yet
- jiveturkey 8y agoheadline is 2026, body says 2050. > After 2050, there may still be some gasoline and diesel models There will still be plenty. My own estimate is that if electric (battery) cars are still a thing in 2050, it will be 50% that and 50% ICE. But more likely, again just IMHO as an interested but non-expert party, if h2 generation is "solved" sufficiently well by then, it will be 50-75% H2 fuel cell and 25% ICE. The plan to deliver H2 instead of natural gas to homes by 2032 by Northern Gas is an example of how the H2 infrastructure can take over.
- purplezooey 8y agoBut the sound. A carbureted SBC sounds so good.
- brewdad 8y agoPlenty of ICE cars have artificial engine sound pumped into the cabin today. We could easily do the same for EVs.
- kojeovo 8y agoNot the same thing. Someone who likes the sound of an ICE typically doesn't like fake engine noise.
- brewdad 8y agoI agree it's not exactly the same, but it can be pretty close. If that is one's lone objection to driving an electric, it's a pretty weak one. It is a very solvable problem.
- temporallobe 8y agoI have nothing in principle against ED vehicles (besides the unfortunate designation “ED”), but I am completely against them in practice. Especially in the US, we have no infrastructure for it. Americans, myself included, love to hit the road for vacations. Electric cars simply cannot handle the rigors of long-distance travel with the engine load of air conditioning or heat, a car full of kids and luggage, and a few amps of accessories (chargers, PSUs for devices, etc.). No one has even proposed anything close to a reasonable solution for these things. The ICE vehicle works so well and has catapulted our economy over the past century because the fuel is so readily available and very quick to fill, and we have built an entire nation on a huge network of gas stations. Sorry, no matter how many futurists want to believe in the Church of ED, the electic car revolution can’t and won’t happen until we completely revamp our infrastructure. And the country isn’t just the idyllic land of California where everyone drinks at juice bars and has solar-paneled houses, and commutes 22.7 miles per day with a hybrid or EV, there is Alaska and West Virginia, where it’s as rural as you can imagine where the ICE is the most reliable source of transportation. VW, and Europe in general are delusional at best.
- paulddraper 8y agoThis summer my wife and I and our three kids and my mother and sister took our Expedition and camping trailer from Utah to Glacier National Park for a family vacation. The summer before, my wife and I and our two kids and four of my in-law took it to Idaho for the solar eclipse. Long range cars (and trailers) make for cost effective outdoor family travel options and I don't see that changing to ED soon (though I wouldn't mind if it did).
- marcell 8y agoCan’t you just stop for a 30 minute lunch break at a super charger station? This seems like a solved problem at this point.
- yosito 8y agoChanging our infrastructure is a bit of a chicken and egg problem. But our infrastructure is rapidly changing. Charging stations are everywhere. Even in West Virginia. And we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg as far as changes to our infrastructure go. Yeah, our infrastructure is based on oil. But we're definitely not incapable of building out new infrastructure as needed. And when electric cars become more economical than gas cars over the next decade, the (debatable) fact that they're bad for family road trips and other specific applications won't matter. You can always rent a gas-powered vehicle if you need one, but owning one is going to become less and less efficient.