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Two factors not clearly stated, but linked to, in the article: - Electric buses, which have much higher usage than personal vehicles [1] - China’s sustained a

Two factors not clearly stated, but linked to, in the article: - Electric buses, which have much higher usage than personal vehicles [1] - China’s sustained and increasingly stronger push for EVs [2] China is the largest land vehicles market in the world with 30% of global sales, so its moves have a large impact. [3] When the initial sales prices of EVs become competitive with ICE cars without subsidy, it is likely that Chinese EV manufacturers will push hard to expand markets in developing countries where cost is a major concern. They should have a cost advantage over established global brands. The flip to electric, for new car sales, could be quite rapid then. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-buses-are-hurting-the-oil-industry https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-... “The numbers are staggering. China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance.” [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/china-is-leading-the-world-to-an-electric-car-future https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/china-is-... “The world’s biggest market for electric vehicles wants to get even bigger, so it’s giving automakers what amounts to an ultimatum. Starting in January, all major manufacturers operating in China—from global giants Toyota Motor and General Motors to domestic players BYD and BAIC Motor—have to meet minimum requirements there for producing new-energy vehicles, or NEVs (plug-in hybrids, pure-battery electrics, and fuel-cell autos). A complex government equation requires that a sizable portion of their production or imports must be green in 2019, with escalating goals thereafter.” [3] http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/Sales-all-vehicles-2017.pdf http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/Sales-all-vehicles-20...

bilbo0s 8y ago
The writing is on the wall. Soon you won't be able to sell many ICE personal vehicles in China. Huge taxes will be levied on them, or the big bosses there will ban them altogether. (I would put money on a ban. The Chinese government always did have a fondness for blunt instruments.) In any case, it has now been confirmed that even companies like Ferrari and Maserati have electric vehicles in the works. Mainly with the Chinese market in mind, and targeted for 2020. So yeah, if the largest market is intent on a wholesale switch to electric, then that's definitely gonna have a big impact.
- gwbas1c 8y ago
  I have a Chrysler Pacifica plug in hybrid, and I know the plan is to use the technology in Maseratis. The drivetrain is awesome... Not as good as a pure electric, but still awesome.
- Scoundreller 8y ago
  Why levy high taxes on low mpg vehicles? Wouldn’t it make more sense to increase fuel taxes? Who cares if someone has a massive SUV if they drive it 2 miles per day? It’s the 50 mile per day driver that you really want to discourage from buying a gas guzzler. Sincerely, a dude that bikes to work 90% of the time unless the weather is particularly deplorable (or has a big load go bring home)
  - WalterBright 8y ago
    Yes, it always seems inefficent to put controls on the rate of pollution rather than on the amount of pollution.
  - Gibbon1 8y ago
    I actually think excise taxes on new vehicles is more effective since it forces people to put everything on the balance sheet when committing to buy. Makes sense because people don't commit to creating pollution/CO2 emissions when they fill their tank, they did it when they bought the car. On the other end you can do what California is doing which is paying people a couple of grand towards a down payment if they replace an older ICE car with an electric car. Would be a good idea if the state would also identify and target longer distance commuters for buyouts.
    - coredog64 8y ago
      Two negatives here. The first is that people rarely pay cash for a car, so unless you are levying a huge tax, it just rolls up into another $20/month. Significant over the long term, but not really an inducement to change behavior. The second is that this turns into a form of environmental redlining. Poor folks who need a car get priced out of the new car market. They then get stuck in older, less efficient, and less safe vehicles. Mass transit may eventually fix this, but in most parts of the US you’d have to raze entire cities to get a working mass transit system.

bilbo0s 8y ago

The writing is on the wall. Soon you won't be able to sell many ICE personal vehicles in China. Huge taxes will be levied on them, or the big bosses there will ban them altogether. (I would put money on a ban. The Chinese government always did have a fondness for blunt instruments.) In any case, it has now been confirmed that even companies like Ferrari and Maserati have electric vehicles in the works. Mainly with the Chinese market in mind, and targeted for 2020. So yeah, if the largest market is intent on a wholesale switch to electric, then that's definitely gonna have a big impact.

gwbas1c 8y ago
I have a Chrysler Pacifica plug in hybrid, and I know the plan is to use the technology in Maseratis. The drivetrain is awesome... Not as good as a pure electric, but still awesome.
Scoundreller 8y ago
Why levy high taxes on low mpg vehicles? Wouldn’t it make more sense to increase fuel taxes? Who cares if someone has a massive SUV if they drive it 2 miles per day? It’s the 50 mile per day driver that you really want to discourage from buying a gas guzzler. Sincerely, a dude that bikes to work 90% of the time unless the weather is particularly deplorable (or has a big load go bring home)
- WalterBright 8y ago
  Yes, it always seems inefficent to put controls on the rate of pollution rather than on the amount of pollution.
- Gibbon1 8y ago
  I actually think excise taxes on new vehicles is more effective since it forces people to put everything on the balance sheet when committing to buy. Makes sense because people don't commit to creating pollution/CO2 emissions when they fill their tank, they did it when they bought the car. On the other end you can do what California is doing which is paying people a couple of grand towards a down payment if they replace an older ICE car with an electric car. Would be a good idea if the state would also identify and target longer distance commuters for buyouts.
  - coredog64 8y ago
    Two negatives here. The first is that people rarely pay cash for a car, so unless you are levying a huge tax, it just rolls up into another $20/month. Significant over the long term, but not really an inducement to change behavior. The second is that this turns into a form of environmental redlining. Poor folks who need a car get priced out of the new car market. They then get stuck in older, less efficient, and less safe vehicles. Mass transit may eventually fix this, but in most parts of the US you’d have to raze entire cities to get a working mass transit system.